Napoleon Defeats Knights of St. John, Takes Malta

At the Napoleon in Egypt blog, Bourrienne's brief account of the conquest of the Knights of St. John at Malta.
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Iraqi Parliament Adjourns
ASEAN Calls for US Withdrawal from Iraq

Iraq's parliament went on a one-month hiatus Tuesday afternoon, having not passed any significant legislation. Bush had outlined 4 'benchmarks' last January that the Iraqi government needed to meet by June. These were passage of a petroleum law, passage of a law specifying distribution of the petroleum revenues, revisions of debaathification rules [which harm Sunni Arabs], and progress on Sunni-Shiite reconciliation. Nothing has been accomplished on any of these fronts.

Corruption is rife in Iraqi ministries, including Health and Petroleum, according to Aram Roston and Lisa Myers of NBC news. Enormous numbers of medicines, and great amounts of gasoline and kerosene, are embezzled by ministry employees. Crony and ethnic favoritism sends Sunnis to jail while equally guilty Shiites walk free. And there have been ghost units of police that only existed on paper.

Ned Parker of the LA Times reports that the Ministry of Interior is a whole set of institutions that are not united among themselves.

US allies in Southeast Asia, ASEAN, have called for a "calibrated" draw-down of foreign troops from Iraq on the grounds that it would contribute to stability. Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, etc., as Asian nations with a history of resisting Western dominance, are sure that the US occupation of the country is a big part of the problem. US Secretary of State Condi Rice skipped the ASEAN security conference for the second year in a row, since she is heavily preoccupied with the Iraq crisis. Meanwhile, China is moving into the ASEAN economies.

Amid all the other health care crises in Iraq, there is the problem of large numbers of amputees because of the bombings, according to The Guardian. Even in Mosul, the large northern city that is by no means the most violent place in Iraq, there is a need for 3,000 replacement replacement limbs a year!

Police found 25 bodies in the streets on Monday, victims of sectarian death squads.

Reuters summarizes political violence on Monday:

' BAGHDAD - A car bomb killed six people and wounded 31 in al-Tayaran Square in a mainly Shi'ite area of central Baghdad, police said.

FALLUJA - Three U.S. soldiers were killed in combat operations in western Anbar province on Thursday, the U.S. military said.

NEAR BALAD - A suicide fuel truck bomb targeting an Iraqi army and police checkpoint killed four people and wounded six near the town of Balad, 80 km (50 miles) north of Baghdad, on Sunday, police said.

BALAD - A car bomb targeting a police patrol killed one policeman and wounded six others in Balad on Sunday, police said. . .

ISKANDARIYA - Three people were killed and two wounded in a fight between two Shi'ite and Sunni tribes on Sunday in Iskandariya, 40 km (25 miles) south of Baghdad, police said.

At our group blog on global affairs, see Howard Eissenstat's essay on the meaning of the victory of the AK Party in Turkey's recent elections.
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Sick on the New Cold War with Iran

at our group blog, Columbia U. Political Scientist and former National Security Adviser Gary Sick lays out what he sees as a coherent Bush administration policy of pursuing a new Cold War in the Middle East, with Iran.

Sick's analysis explains everything from the new arms deal being offered Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Israel to the odd and consistent focus of US military spokesmen in Baghdad on the tiny part of the problems in Iraq that derive from Iran.

Iran replied to the arms deal proposal by observing that US policy in the Middle East was to create bogeymen, make everyone afraid, and then offer to sell them billions in shiny new weapons.
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A third of Iraqi Children Malnourished
Baghdad Neighborhoods Emptied by Snipers
Skepticism on Gates-Rice Mission

The aid organization Oxfam estimates that a third of Iraqis, about 8 million persons, are in urgent need of aid, lacking potable water and in many instances even food to eat. The BBC summarizes:

' Nearly 30% of children are malnourished, a sharp increase on the situation four years ago. Some 15% of Iraqis regularly cannot afford to eat.

The report also said 92% of Iraq's children suffered from learning problems. . .

t suggests that 70% of Iraq's 26.5m population are without adequate water supplies, compared to 50% percent prior to the invasion. Only 20% have access to effective sanitation.
'

These statistics strike as similar to the ones for Palestinians in Gaza, which was under Israeli military occupation for decades, and which is still in a kind of Israeli penitentiary. The Iraqi statistics are worse, and were achieved more quickly. But foreign military occupation clearly isn't good for a people, and one of its by-products can be large numbers of malnourished children.

McClatchy reports that the visit to Egypt and Saudi Arabia of Secretary of State Condi Rice and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates faces severe hurdles to its success. They are said to want to drum up support among these Sunni US allies for the Shiite government of PM Nuri al-Maliki in Iraq; to want to mobilize the region against Iran, and to kickstart the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. They face an atmosophere poisoned by a recent public US leak of US dissatisfaction with Saudi Arabia's role in supporting Sunni Arab dissidents in Iraq (a leak that became less anonymous when the criticism of Riyad was endorsed Sunday by ambassador to the UN Zalmay Khalilzad.) The Saudis and others in the region are reluctant to sign on to a Bush iniative, McClatchy says, a) because Bush has had few successes and a lot of disasters and b) because Bush is a lame duck and who wants to stick out his neck for him?

Gen. David Petraeus vigorously contested on Sunday the allegations of some Shiite politicians around PM Nuri al-Maliki that al-Maliki wants him gone because he is arming Sunni Arab forces to fight "al-Qaeda" in Iraq. These Sunni Arab forces have sometimes been implicated in killing Shiites. The Arabic press has reported al-Maliki's opposition to the policy, out of fear that when the US departs, his government will have to face well-armed Sunnis with blood in their eyes.

A warm congratulations to Iraq on the victory of its soccer (football) team in the Asia Cup finals!

Liz Sly of the Trib reports on the tense Iraqi-Turkish border, made perilous by the safe harbor offered the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) guerrillas by the leaders of Iraqi Kurdistan. At the last checkpoint under Iraqi control, she is told, "There could be bombing, and there are terrorists everywhere."

This delicate problem, which could blow up the northern reaches of the Middle East, requires delicate diplomacy, right? Nope. Bush thinks all problems can be resolved with violence. Dark Prince Bob Novak says that Undersecretary of Defense Eric Edelman has briefed Congress on a covert US operation to help Turkey suppress the PKK. The quid pro quo would be that Turkey would not invade northern Iraq.

The problem? The Kurds are the only firm ally the US had in Iraq, and US special ops troops getting directly involved against the PKK might well alienate the Kurds in general. You can hear W.'s fingernails squeak as they dig into the face of the high cliff down which he is gradually sliding.

The cost of the American presence in Iraq during August when the Iraqi parliament is on vacation? Bob Schieffer says that key members of Congress have been told $200,000 a minute.

Reuters reports that "Gunmen killed eight people and wounded two others on Saturday in a drive-by shooting in a Turkman village near the town of Tuz Khurmato, about 180 km (110 miles) north of Baghdad . . " Also, among many other incidents:

' BAGHDAD - One U.S. soldier was killed by small arms fire north of Baghdad, the U.S. military said. . .

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb targeting an Iraqi army patrol wounded four people, including a soldier, in Baghdad's Zayouna area, police said. . .

BAGHDAD - Three people were wounded by a mortar round which fell near the former residence of the French ambassador near al-Mesbah intersection in central Baghdad, police said. . .

KIRKUK - A mortar bomb wounded five people in a residential area of Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad, police and hospital sources said. . .

McClatchy reports, in addition, that in Diyala province on Sunday:

' Early morning , terrorists bombed The Prophet Daniel shrine near Wajihiya town (north of Baquba) and it is fully destroyed.

- Early morning, terrorists attacked Bihbisa village , which is close to Daniel shrine , firing some houses , killing 3 men , kidnapping five and destroying 11 houses which forced some family to displace the area.

- Around 10 am, a roadside bomb exploded in front of a shop whose owner was supplying people for food ration which had months of delay killing one man and injuring 25 other[s] at Belad Rouz ( 40 km east of Baquba).Most of the injured are women and children.

- Around 10 am, three policemen were killed and three others injured when a roadside bomb targeted their patrol near Deli Abass ( east Baquba) . '

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that many Baghdadis have fled their neighborhoods because of persistent sniping, rendering some districts of the capital like ghost towns. (There are an estimated 2 million internally displaced Iraqis, and a similar number abroad, primarily in Jordan and Syria). One of these semi-deserted areas is al-Shurta in West Baghdad. As the people moved out, the Mahdi Army militia moved in, turning empty apartments into "offices" of their militia and recruiting local young men into it. They are being prepared to fight Sunni Arab militiamen from the nearby Ridwaniya neighborhood, said to be dominated by "al-Qaeda." Haytham Khalid, 36, a resident of the Shurta neighborhood, told al-Hayat that the "al-Qaeda" marksmen subjected his [Shiite] district to intense and continual sniping, as a means of emptying it out so that Sunni Arabs could take it over. In the first task, of emptying it out, they had begun to succeed. Markets are deserted. The local Mahdi Army militia has for some months forbidden vehicular traffic in the neighborhood, as a way of keeping out car bombs.

Al-Sharq al-Awsat reports in Arabic that PM Nuri al-Maliki's office clarified that it had simply confirmed the decision of the Basra governing council with regard to the dismissal of the governor, Muhammad Misbah al-Wa'ili. The federal prime minist, an aide said, does not have the authority independently to dismiss an elected governor. (This communication ignores that al-Wa'ili had appealed to al-Maliki to intervene against the dismissal, and al-Maliki refused to do so, essentially upholding the campaign of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council to unseat the governor). Meanwhile, al-Wa'ili and his Islamic Virtue Party (Fadhila) are defiant and say that the governor will remain in office until a constitutional court to which he has appealed rules against him.

In Washington, DC, if you don't specify the precise budget for something you are doing, you can deny you are doing it, apparently. Walter Pincus reports that US base-building in Iraq seems to be an enormous endeavor, but it is hard to find out exactly how much is being spent on it."

At our group blog, Manan Ahmed explains which portions of the new 'Improving America's Security' Act of 2007 are sticking in the craws of our Pakistani allies.
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Bonaparte Betrayed at Cairo

At the Napoleon in Egypt blog, the story of how Gen. Bonaparte discovered during his march on Cairo that his wife was cheating on him, and what he wrote his brother in response.


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Basra Governor Dismissed
Fadhila Brands al-Maliki Gov. "the New Baath"
Sunnis Complain about "Threats"

The Sunni Arab bloc in parliament, the Iraqi Accord Front, traded insults on Saturday with the al-Maliki government. In the wake of its suspension of participation in the government on Wednesday, al-Maliki's spokesman, Ali Dabbagh made a statement that the Sunnis are interpreting as threatening and coercive, according to al-Hayat writing in Arabic. He say that political adventurism might lead into dangers that would be fruitless for everyone.

Al-Sharq al-Awsat reports in Arabic that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has fired Basra governor Muhammad Misbah al-Wa'ili of the Islamic Virtue Party (Fadhila). I had summarized Arabic newspaper reports on April 30 about the vote of no-confidence brought against the governor by the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council. There are 41 seats on the Basra governing council, which was elected in January, 2005. SIIC has 20 seats. Fadhila or Virtue had about 15, but was able to convince 6 independents to vote with it, thus creating a Virtue-dominated provincial administration.

In March, the Islamic Virtue Party pulled out of the [Shiite] United Iraqi Alliance coalition in the federal government, in which it had been allotted 15 seats. In part they were protesting their loss of the petroleum ministry portfolio, which had gone to the Supreme Council. They had had that ministry under the previous prime minister, Ibrahim Jaafari, and since Basra is the big oil refining city, their control of both allowed for downward integration (their critics accused Fadhila of embezzling gasoline to support their party and militia). In reaction against the defection of the Islamic Virtue Party from the UIA, the Supreme Council appears to have decided to attract the loyalty of a few of the independents and to unseat al-Wa'ili. In this goal they succceeded. Al-Wa'ili then appealed to al-Maliki to adjudicate the dispute. The decision announced late Saturday appears to have been al-Maliki's response to the appeal. He seems to have put off the decision until parliament was on the cusp of its August recess, perhaps as a way of limiting the political response and fall-out.

The Islamic Virtue Party in Basra rejected the prime minister's decision, calling it part of a campaign of defamation against the party in the wake of its break with the ruling United Iraqi Alliance. Party leaders said that the al-Maliki government "has lost its legimitacy" and branded it "the New Baath."

Al-Maliki's letter noted that the Basra governing council conducted a vote of no confidence against al-Wa'ili, and that it had the right to do so under the Bremer Laws. The letter said that it was incumbent on the council now to elect a new governor.

The Islamic Virtue Party is appealing to the constitutional court. Its deputy leader warned that demonstrations could roil the city and that they could turn bloody.

Basra appears to have been without a functioning government since the beginning of May, and now may be paralyzed by faction fighting over al-Wa'ili's dismissal.

All this is inconvenient to the British, who would like to turn security duties in the province over to the local government by the end of 2007.

Basra is Iraq's major export port, and it is from there that the country exports 1.8 million barrels a day of petroleum. If social order there collapses, it could make it difficult for the federal government in Baghdad to function either, since it depends on the proceeds from petroleum sales.

Some 20 bodies were found dead in the streets of Baghdad on Saturday. Guerrillas dressed as women attacked a Kurdish police checkpoint and killed 3 policemen. There were bombings and mortar attacks in Baghdad.
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Mayberry Testimony on Kidnapping of Workers for US Embassy Baghdad

I mentioned story the other day briefly about allegations that the Kuwaiti contracting firm building the US embassy in Baghdad has Shanghaied workers, bringing them to the Middle East under false pretences and depriving them of their passports-- In essence, of kidnapping them. The video testimony below by medic Rory Mayberry is much more powerful than a newspaper report could be. He talks about a gun being used to silence protesting workers just told they are really going to Baghdad!

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Al-Maliki Tensions Said Severe with Petraeus;
US Raid in Karbala

Steven R. Hurst and Qassim Abdul-Zahra of the Associated Press get the scoop that relations between Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and US Gen. David Petraeus are so tense that aides to al-Maliki say he has considered asking Washington to pull the general out of Baghdad. The two major sources of tension appear to be al-Maliki's continued lack of control over all Iraqi military units and operations, and Petraeus's policy of arming Iraqi Sunni Arab tribesmen willing to fight the foreign Salafi Jihadis. Al-Maliki fears that once the Sunni tribesmen have dispatched "al-Qaeda," they will turn on the largely Shiite government with their new American weapons.

Ironically, al-Maliki himself got called a collaborator with Sunni Arab 'terrorists' on Friday, himself. Sawt al-Iraq, writing in Arabic, says that after Friday prayers the Shiites of Khalis (a city in Diyala Province) demonstrated against the prime minister. Al-Maliki had just met in Diyala's capital, Baqubah, with the Sunni Arab leadership of the city, which the Shiites believe is full of al-Qaeda supporters (they mean Salafi Jihadis) who are implicated in the killing of Shiites.

The US military raided a rogue Mahdi Army cell in the Shiite holy city of Karbala on Friday. US troops captured the cell leader but then took small arms fire from his supporters, leading to a vigorous clash. Iraqi sources claimed that 9 militiamen and a civilian woman were killed and 25 persons were wounded, including women and children. The US maintained that the death toll was 6, all militiamen. Any foreigners fighting in Karbala are likely to raise tensions, but this action was almost certainly requested by the city's power elite, which sides with the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council and its Badr Corps paramilitary against the Sadrists and the Mahdi Army. US troops no longer routinely patrol downtown Karbala, but come in to the city from a base outside it when requested by Iraqi security forces.

US officials say that they are upset with Saudi Arabia for undermining the government of PM Nuri al-Maliki by charging him with being an Iranian secret agent and distributing faked documents to that effect.

On the other hand, I gather that the Bush administration is not too upset with Saudi Arabia, to which it is planning to sell billions of dollars of fancy new military equipment.

Tom Englehardt on how the idea of a US military withdrawal from Iraq became mainstream.

Shaikh Abdul Mahdi al-Karbala'i, in his Friday sermon at the mosque attached to the shrine of Imam Husayn in Karbala, warned of a "humanitarian catastrophe" in Diyala province. Al-Karbala'i is the representative of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani and his sermons are thought to reflect Sistani's thinking. He said Friday that numerous Diyala residents had contacted him urgently for aid, saying that they lacked services, even water, and that thousands faced death or displacement from their homes. He asked the government to help them. He said he was amazed that the prime minister and the Iraqi officer corps seemed afraid of launching a military campaign against the terrorists to rescue them. He interpreted their timidity as a fear on their parts of being seen as Shiite officials attacking Sunnis on behalf of Shiites, i.e. of acting out of merely sectarian concerns. He suggested in response that a joint Diyala military command be formed with nationalist officers drawn from the Shiite, Sunni, Kurdish, and Turkmen communities, which would not feel similar compunctions.

Sadr al-Din al-Qubanchi, preaching at the mosque of the shrine of Imam Ali in Najaf, showered praise on the US-Iranian talks held this week in Baghdad. Al-Qubanchi is a member of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, headed by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, which is the closest of all Iraqi parties to Tehran but also among the closest allies of the Bush administration in Iraq. He also praised Syria for having cancelled a planned meeting in Damascus of the Iraqi Baath Party in exile.

Al-Hayat, writing in Arabic, reports that the bombings in the once upscale, Shiite district of Karrada in central Baghdad have left the inhabitants shivering with fear. The neighborhood is a sort of second 'Green Zone,' with major politicians and parties based there, along with newspaper offices. Some residents are warning that it could become an arena for clashes among warring militias, especially after armed groups threw up checkpoints on the grounds of checking cars for bombs.

In funeral processions for those killed in the bombings and mortar attacks on Thursday, which killed 60 and wounded 94, mourners attacked US troops and threw stones at Iraqi troops in the district [i.e. blaming them for not forestalling the bombings.] Karrada has been hit by bombings 10 times in July. These were not for the most part suicide bombings but were rather coordinated detonations. In the aftermath, armed Shiite militiamen have come in and set up checkpoints, and there is a danger they will clash with Sunni Arab guerrillas. Big party "offices" have proliferated, actualy HQs for militias. Most merchants have left Karrada and other nice neighborhoods, given the rise in harassment and kidnappings for ransom. Hundreds of residential buildings now sit empty, their residents having fled.

Oil Minister Hussein Shahristani says that Iraq's oil unions are not legitimate.
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EPIC News Release: Responsibility to Iraqi Refugees Act

The Education for Peace in Iraq Center sent this news release on an important bill that is in danger of languishing in Congress:

"On June 14th, when we began building support for Congressman Blumenauer's Responsibility to Iraqi Refugees Act of 2007 (H.R. 2265), only 14 representatives had signed on. EPIC hand-delivered more than 2,300 constituent letters to Congress, and now the bill has 49 cosponsors -- an increase of 35 as of July 25th.

Iraqis are the third largest displaced population in the world, after Palestinians and Sudanese. Yet despite a rapidly deteriorating humanitarian and protection situation for many of the 4 million displaced Iraqis, the U.S. has only resettled 133 since October 2006. H.R. 2265 would provide support for Iraq and its neighbors to handle the crisis, and special visas for the most at-risk refugees -- particularly those in danger for working closely with American soldiers and NGOs in Iraq.

EPIC's actions are making a difference in Congress, and your help will strengthen our impact. You can check the list of cosponsors for H.R. 2265 here, and if your Representative has not signed on, please visit our Action Center and personalize your letter to Congress today.

Together, we have real power to help millions of innocent Iraqi civilians displaced by violence. But we all must work together to keep the pressure up. For more information about taking the next steps, click here.

Sincerely,

Emily Stivers
Education for Peace in Iraq Center



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The Education for Peace in Iraq Center works to build peace through the advancement of human rights, humanitarian relief and sustainable development that benefits all Iraqis.

Support EPIC online or send your contribution to:

Education for Peace in Iraq Center (EPIC)
1101 Pennsylvania Ave, SE
Washington, DC 20003
202-543-6176
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8 US Troops Killed
100 Casualties in Karrada Bombing
KRG MP: US oil Interests driving Iraqi Legislation

It was announced Thursday that Iraqi guerrillas had killed 7 US soldiers. The Daily Times say 8 died from Tuesday to Thursday. Among other violence against Iraqis, guerrillas detonated a massive car bomb in Central Baghdad that killed 25, wounded 75, and left rows of shops destroyed. Some 20 bodies were found in the streets of Baghdad on Thursday. South of Baghdad in Babil, a guerrillas used a roadside bomb to kill 5 policemen and wound two civilians. Al-Hayat writing in Arabic put the Iraqi death toll from direct civil war violence for Thursday at 65.

Sawt al-Iraq reports that member of the Kurdistan parliament, Nuri Talabani, insists that US economic interests are driving its heavy-handed push to make sure the Iraqi parliament signs a petroleum law in short order. He said that the US government wants special deals for US petroleum corporations in developing, producing and distributing Iraqi petroleum, and that is why it is in such a hurry. Since the US and its Iraqi allies have been involved in heavy negotiations with the Kurdistan Regional Government over the exact provisions of a petroleum law, it is plausible that Talabani has special knowledge of US goals.

Allegations are being made that the foreign workers building the massive US embassy in Baghdad have in some cases been Shanghaied (told they were going to Dubai but then taken to Baghdad instead) and, once in Iraq, have been abused. The charges are against the Kuwaiti contractor supplying the workers to the US government. It has been alleged before that forms of corporate slavery have underpinned some of the private contract work done in Iraq.

The Sunni Arab party, the National Accord Front carried through Thursday with its threat to suspend membership in the al-Maliki government again. The party leaders gave Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki one week to meet their demands, or they said the six cabinet members from the party would resign, and that Front would pull out of the so-called national unity government for good. (The National Accord Front has made these threats before and then withdrawn them, so it is hard to know how seriously to take them this time.) Sheikh Khalaf al-Ulyan of the Front explained its demands:

' Al-Elyan said the front's demands included a pardon for security detainees not charged with specific crimes, a firm commitment by the government to human rights, the disbanding of militias and the inclusion of all parties as the government deals with Iraq's chaotic security environment. '

As the AP article points out, one likely outcome of the NAI's suspension of governmental activities is that the al-Maliki government will be able to make no further progress on passing the petroleum bill, the bill specifying how revenues are to be shared, the bill on revsion of debaathification measures, or on the process of Sunni-Shiite national reconciliation (Bush's 4 benchmarks of last January, which were due in June. None has been met).

The LA Times reports that Baghdadis are down to one or two hours of electricity a day, but that the Bush administration will no longer be measuring or reporting on that sort of local data. It will give Congress only the general statistic for the entire country. But obviously whether the capital has electricity would help you know whether the current policies are working.

We had just learned from Reuters last week that the number of guerrilla attacks in Iraq in June reached an all-time high, suggesting that the surge isn't actually going very well. CNN appears to have been one of the few news organizations, then, to pay much attention to Gen. Odierno's allegation that the surge is obviously working because US combat deaths have fallen so far in July. I know it is the general's job to spin things this way, but it is my job to call a spade a spade. In fact the secular trend of US combat deaths for April, May and June was significantly up:

' The previous three months were the deadliest three-month stretch in the war, with 104 deaths in April, 126 in May and 101 in June. '

This is up from 81 in February and March. So the quarterly average is still higher than in winter. Three weeks tells you nothing. (It is 130 degrees in Baghdad; what guerrilla in his right mind rolls out a big offensive in July or August?) Second, what kind of improvement is that, where over-all attacks rise but fewer US combat troops are affected by them? That sounds like US troops are having less contact with the enemy, which is hitting out more frequently than ever before at Iraqi security and civilian targets. That outcome does not point to "success" for the "surge"!

Al-Hayat reports that many Iraqis simply do not believe that the US congress is serious when it votes against permanent bases in Iraq. Members of parliament say that they see these enormous hardened bases being built, which is practical proof to the contrary. They think the Democratic Congress is just posturing because of its struggle with the Bush White House. Shiite MP Qasim Da'ud said that, however, even in future US troops would not be accepted in Iraq, in part because the country's neighbors are afraid of Washington's intentions. (He is referring to Iran.)
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Bombings Kill dozens in Street Crowds
Sunni Arabs threaten withdrawal from Parliament

Iraqis were unified for a brief period on Wednesday as they came out in the streets from the north of the country to its south, from Irbil to Baghdad to Basra, to celebrate the country's soccer (football) victory in the Asian Cup. People danced in the streets, sang, waved Iraqi flags, and drove with car doors open and passengers celebrating. Iraqis have constructed a powerful nationalism during the 20th century that Western observers now often discount, but those celebrations were a glimmer of the pre-Bush Iraq.

Sunni Arab guerrillas must have been planning for these street celebrations, since they hit them powerfully and effectively in Baghdad, with two car bombs, killing 55 and wounding 135 according to late reports. There were other bombings and mortar attacks in the capital, and 18 bodies were found in the streets. A vehicle with Iranian pilgrims was attacked.

The Sunni Arab Iraqi Accord Front is threatening once again to suspend participation in parliament. This development would be a severe blow to PM Nuri al-Maliki, who is trying to put together a new political bloc of 'moderates'.

The US House of Representatives voted on Wednesday overwhelmingly to bar permanent US military bases in Iraq or any attempt to control Iraqi petroleum. Some Republicans apparently voted for the measure somewhat insincerely, arguing that there are no such things as permanent US military bases abroad, because bases require the consent of the host country. The Republicans may feel that the vote will nevertheless give them some cover in the 2008 elections. House members have to contest elections every 2 years, and the American public is clearly becoming impatient with the war.

Work began on the joint US-Iranian-Iraqi committee on security in the wake of Tuesday's meeting. The Iranians are also considering higher-level talks.

Catch Farideh Farhi's important discussion of the talks between US Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker and his Iranian counterpart at our group blog. She argues that Crocker's show of pique with the Iranians was designed to mollify US rightwingers who oppose such talks, while we should keep our eyes on the substantive outcome of the negotiations, i.e. the joint committee on Iraqi security that targets "al-Qaeda in Iraq."

Fred Kaplan reviews the leaked Crocker-Petraeus security plan covering through 2009 and finds it unlikely to succeed. Kaplan is skeptical about the ability of Iraqi security forces to "hold" neighborhoods in Baghdad. And, he cannot see how a temporary alliance of convenience with fractious, Shiite-hating Sunni tribesmen of al-Anbar Province against al-Qaeda in Iraq can produce a stable partnership or end sectarian fighting. He quotes military historian Stephen Biddle giving the plan only a 1 in 10 chance of success.

The military historian Tom Collier here in Ann Arbor wrote me on this plan,

" In its schools, the Army teaches a format for the study of any problem. It starts with "1. Assumptions," and then goes on to facts bearing on the problem, conclusions, and recommendations. Students are taught that if the assumptions are incorrect, then the rest of the study will be invalid.

The "detailed plan" that Michael Gordon reported seems to be based on two shaky assumptions:

1. U.S. troops can use force to create "sustainable security" for the Iraqi government to function, and

2. Given that security, the Iraqi government *will* function and will reach "political reconciliation" among "disparate factions," provide basic services, and stop the violence.

In other words, 1. we hope that we can put wings on a frog and, 2. we hope that the frog will then fly to paradise. And based on those assumptions, the "detailed plan" calls for U.S. troops to fight and die "until at least '09." Wow!!!" --Tom Collier

An audit has shown that only 42% of Bechtel's reconstruction projects in Iraq was completed. Bechtel maintainst that changing priorities of key funder, the US Agency for International Development, caused 10 of 24 projects to be abandoned.

I wrote Wednesday about the disappointing harvests in the southern province of Dhi Qar, which the Arabic press attributed in large part to soil salinization.

Here are expert comments I received on this issue, which profoundly affects Iraqi food security. Not my field, and I did not realize how full of salts fresh water is, such that if it isn't drained properly it salinizes the soil, too. I think I was probably misled by what I had read on Egypt, because its peasants and government appear to have been much more expert in dealing with this problem even after the Nile was dammed. So my correspondent wrote:

"Salinization of the soils in southern Iraq is very severe, perhaps even more severe than the Indus basin in Punjab or Sindh. The reason is the combination of poor drainage in the southern part of Mesopotamia and reduced flow of water due to damming of the rivers upstream. There are huge tracts of land in Dhi Qar, Basra, Missan, Babil, Diwaniyah and even Najaf and Karbala that are white with salt and thus unsuitable for agriculture. The fix, install good drainage and flush the soil of salt, will require large sums of money and a deliberate and thoughtful plan. The money at least theoretically exists but thoughtful planning is no where to be found.

The Ministry of Science and Technology worked with the Ministry of Agriculture and an American group to test a salt tolerant wheat variety in areas south of Baghdad. Farmers who participated were able to reap an economic crop for the first time in many years, some noted that it was magic. What happened to that variety is anybody's guess. The chaos that engulfed the south and which paralyzed the government after 2005 ruined plans for large scale reproduction of the seed. Thus what you report in Dhi Qar is really nothing new. Agriculture in the southern part of Iraq was ruined long ago by poor stewardship of resources and deliberate destruction.

In Egypt, rice production in the delta is promoted to guard against salt water intrusion. The construction of the Aswan High Dam has compelled farmers and authorities to be watchful of creeping salinization all along the Nile basin because the Nile does not act as the ultimate drain it once was. But the issue with respect to salt is minor compared with Iraq and it is under control. "

At the Napoleon blog, Bonaparte's letters to his brother Joseph in spring-summer 1798.
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Trix: Tale of Three Villages: Kosova, 2007

With the status of Kosova uncertain after a Russian veto of a UN Security Council plan for its independence, its leaders are calling for elections this fall anyway. This volatile region in the Balkans is extremely important. We are lucky to have a guest editorial today on it. - Juan

Anthropologist Frances Trix writes:

As we approached Krushe e Vogel, a village in southwestern Kosova, we met a tractor pulling a cart with workers going to the fields. A common enough scene in rural Kosova except that the driver of the tractor and all the workers were women. We entered a typical Albanian compound with high wooden gate and walls. Inside was a garden, chickens pecking around, a rusty tractor, the house, and again, only women. The Kosovar Albanian woman I was with, Marte Prenkpalaj, had a special relationship with these village women. On March 26, 1999, she had looked out her family's window across the Drini River to see women and children running toward the icy river on the other side. "Don't go out," her mother cautioned her, "there are paramilitaries." But Marte, an elementary school principal knew something was wrong. She took the family tractor with its cart and drove down and across the wide riverbed with its shallow river. Four times she made this trip to pick up all the women and children from Krushe e Vogel and bring them to her village on the other side of the Drini. That day the local Serbs, for there were about thirty Serb families living in the village and they were armed, had forced the Albanian men and older boys at gunpoint into a stable. The NATO bombing had begun two nights before, and conditions on the ground were precarious. The Serbs had ordered the women and children to go drown themselves in the river and chased them in that direction. Three days later all the Albanian people of the region, including the women and children of Krushe e Vogel, went on the trek out of Kosova to Albania to wait out the war. Three months later they returned to find that all their menfolk had been killed that day in March, their bodies burned in the stable, and the remains dumped in the river. But the story does not end there. Several years later, in line with its central directive to "build a multi-ethnic society," KFOR (Kosovo International Security Force) troops from the Ukraine escorted a group of local Serbs for a "go and see" trip back to Krushe e Vogel. They could see their former homes and consider whether they wanted to become "returnees." But the Albanian women of Krushe e Vogel, when they understood what was going on, sat down in the road of their village to block their entrance. The KFOR commander ordered them to get up and let them pass. They refused. Tear gas was used on the women and sticks. Someone made a mobile phone call to Iqballe Rogova of Motrat Qiriazi, a women's group that had worked with the women. Iqballe sped to the scene and was able to head off the convoy. Two weeks later an apology was received and the Ukrainian KFOR commander sent back to the Ukraine. This brings us to our second "village" in Kosova, well delineated on a hillside of Prishtina, and known colloquially as Dragodan. I lived here during the early years of Milosevic and my son attended the local school, but Dragodan today is much built up, much changed since then. What were empty fields are now filled with multi-story homes with white UN Toyota jeeps and other more impressive vehicles parked nose to nose along the winding road. For today Dragodan is a mini-green zone, peopled by the internationals who have actually governed Kosova in all matters of consequence since 1999. They work for the UN, UNHCR, EU, and OSCE--collectively known as UNMIK--the UN Mission in Kosovo. They write reports, publish colored brochures, and garner salaries that allow for fine Greek vacations and regular weekend trips to London. Many served earlier in Bosnia before they came to Kosova. One of the main official concerns of this "village" is measuring the extent to which Kosova is meeting "standards." There are eight major "standards," set up by one of the better SRSGs, that is, Special Representative to the Secretary General, Michael Steiner, in 2001. Unfortunately Steiner did not involve Kosovar leaders early in the process of delineating these "standards." In addition, they were set up three years after the war so none of the impressive humanitarian work or the rebuilding done by the Albanians in the early years counted. Instead, only the harder issues, like that of ethnic relations between Albanians and Serbs, remained, and the focus came here. Indeed, one main way to measure progress has been in numbers of Serb returnees. This is deeply frustrating for Albanians, who see the 5% Serb minority as thereby favored by the internationals. Many local Serbs were part of the oppressive Serb regime of the 1990's whose police and local paramilitaries killed 10,000 Kosovar Albanians between 1998 and 1999 and expelled over 800,000 Albanians from Kosova in 1999. A Norwegian church group, in concert with UNHCR, spent eight months after the end of the war in 1999, extracting corpses from wells in Kosovar Albanian villages (Martinsen, Josef. Puset e Vdekjes ne Kosove, "Wells of Death in Kosova," Grafoprint: Prishtina, 2006). But this was done too quickly to figure in the "standards," let alone the knowledge of those implementing them. Steiner also came up with the slogan--"Standards before Status"--that is, the eight major "standards" must be met before talks on political status could begin. "Status" for Albanians has always meant independence from Serbia. This slogan can be seen as a way of motivating people; it was also a delaying tactic at a time when the UN Security Council was in no mood to consider Kosova, and the more common delaying and distracting tactics of municipal and general elections had already been used more than once. In classic bureaucratic mode, the eight "standards" morphed into hundreds of "activities" whose success was color-coded in thick booklets of charts for all municipalities. In my many interviews with people from this "village," I was struck with their singular lack of knowledge of recent history of the region. They tended to know of or to own Noel Malcolm's Short History of Kosovo, but it was clear they hadn't read it. If they were readers, they had read Robert Kaplan's distorted Balkan Ghosts, a journalistic account that plays off Rebecca West's beautifully written but distinctly pro-Serb account of her 1937 trip through former Yugoslavia. They were not familiar with recent books on Kosova and former Yugoslavia. They had little understanding of the 1998-1999 war, let alone the preceding decade of the 1990's during which time Albanian Kosovars had all been fired from their jobs and expelled from high schools, institutions of higher learning, and medical facilities. The earlier period of renewed growth of Serbian nationalism under Milosevic in the 1980's was also foreign terrain, although Milosevic had played off the fears of Serbs in Kosova and staged his major media event in 1989 on the field of the 1389 Battle of Kosovo, a short taxi ride south of Prishtina. None of the many official internationals I met had bothered to study Albanian, an Indo-European language spoken by 95% of the people of Kosova. I asked an international high up in media relations who had been in Kosova for eight years whether he had studied Albanian. "I started," he said, "but my employer wouldn't pay for it and it was too expensive." There is 44% official unemployment in Kosova with massive under-employment of educated people, so this is not credible. Another long-term international remarked that if you were going to learn a foreign language, Serbian made more sense since you could count it as three languages on your resume (Serbian, Croatian, Bosnian). These are the people running Kosova. The third village is a Serbian one, Babin Most, that I have never seen mentioned in the news. It is off the road from Mitrovice heading south. It is a farming village and the gardens and fields are well tended. The farming equipment however looks aged; the official who drove me there pointed this out, explaining that Serbs tended to invest in central Serbia rather than in Kosova. Nor was there a teahouse or coffee shop in the village, but there was a video game shed with young people. What was most remarkable however was that none of the homes or barns had been damaged after the war. Rather this village had kept away from Serb military and police, and had kept good relations with its Albanian neighbors who had also protected it. No international cadre would have been capable of promoting or implementing this. Rather, Serb enclaves that international cadres, including the international press, tend to find are places like Lipjan. A recent New York Times article (Craig Smith, June 25, 2007) quoted a Serb from Lipjan, south of Prishtina, who, while sitting under the family grape arbor, acknowledged he had served in the Serb army but said he never took part in the fighting or any war crimes. This reporter must have been escorted around Kosova by internationals like those I too met, internationals who did not know the meaning of Lipjan for Albanians, or he would not have included it in the article. Lipjan prison, just west of town, was the major prison in eastern Kosova used by the Serbs for Albanians. There they were brought, tortured, and sometimes sent on to prisons in central Serbia. During May 1999, there were 34 Albanian prisoners in each 4 by 5 meter cell, totaling well over 3,000 people. Conditions were deplorable. But memory of this, only eight years old, never reached our green zone "villagers." It is like interviewing someone from Dachau about difficulties of being an East Prussian refugee after World War II, and not knowing what Dachau was. Also in Lipjan was a paper mill. Kosovar Albanians remember that over 1,000 Albanian books from the National Library in Prishtina were taken there by Serb officials in the mid-1990's and turned into pulp. But this too appears unknown to the international escorts of our New York Times reporter. Like the Ukrainian KFOR escort to Krushe e Vogel, they did not know where they were taking people or what transpired there, if they cared. Frances Trix

Frances Trix is a professor of linguistics and anthropology at Indiana University. She was an IREX fellow at the University of Prishtina 1987-1988, speaks Albanian, and recently returned from research work in Kosova.
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US-Iran Alliance Against Sunni Guerrillas?
US Security Plan Envisages Troop Presence to 2009

The headlines will probably concentrate on the shouting match between US Ambassador Ryan Crocker and Iranian diplomat Hassan Kazemi Qomi at their meeting in Baghdad. Crocker accused the Iranians of giving training and weapons to Shiite militias, some of which ended up being used against US troops in Iraq. The Iranian diplomat denied the charges. But in my view the money graf in this Telegraph report is this one:

' he two countries did agree to form a security committee, with Iraq, to focus on containing Sunni insurgents. The committee would concentrate on the threat from groups such as al-Qa'eda in Iraq, officials said, but not those[Shiite] militia groups the US accuses Iran of funding and training. '

If the US is allying with Iran against the Sunni insurgents and al-Qaeda, this is a very major development and much more important than some carping over Shiite militias. (My guess is that 98% of American troops killed in Iraq have been killed by Sunni Arab guerrillas). If the report is true and has legs, it will send Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal ballistic. The Sunni Arab states do not like "al-Qaeda" in Iraq, but they are much more afraid of Iran than of the Iraqi Sunni Arabs who are fighting against US military occupation.

A document leaked to the New York Times reveals that US Ambassador Ryan Crocker and Gen. David Petraeus have a two-year plan for security in Iraq, aiming for a pacification of Baghdad by summer of 2008.

My own suspicion is that summer, 2009 is about when most of the troops will be brought out of Iraq. I can't imagine the anti-war forces getting 2/3s of both the House and the Senate and being able to over-ride Bush's vetoes, and he seems determined to keep the US presence in Iraq for the rest of his presidency. There may be a drawdown (to 100,000?) in summer-fall of 2008, both because it will be needed in order not to break the army and because the plan will either have worked or not worked by then. (It would also generate headlines that would not hurt the Republicans, and I think some Iraq policy is made on that partisan basis). It seems likely that anti-war candidates of both parties will capture both houses of congress in '08, and only a dramatic and unexpected development could throw the White House to a pro-war Republican such as Giuliani. So, the leaders on the ground there may as well plan that far out. But so far the surge has not stopped guerrilla attacks from rising to unprecedented levels, has not stopped guerrillas from striking elsewhere when they are blocked in Baghdad, and has not in fact provided space for political progress or reconciliation. So whether things will actually be better in summer of '08 is murky to say the least. Certainly, I hope this horrible daily violence can end, for the sake of the Iraqis themselves. Ironically, if there were an end to violence, it might impel the Iraqi public and politicians, having begun to feel more secure, to ask the US forces to leave. I think fear of the Sunni Arab guerrillas is the only thing that has forestalled Grand Ayatollah Sistani from issuing a fatwa or ruling that the foreign forces must leave Iraq.

Women are increasingly being targeted for violence in Iraq, forcing some women aid workers to stay inside.

In addition to the massive suicide bombing in the southern Shiite city of Hilla, which killed at least 26 and wounded 66, police found 24 bodies in the streets of Baghdad, victims of sectarian death squads. McClatchy reports a much wider range of violence on Tuesday, including several bombings and mortar attacks in Baghdad and this item: "Three mortar shells targeted al Sadr hospital in Basra today. 3 were killed and 14 were injured." If al-Sadr Hospital belongs to the Sadr movement, and if another Shiite militia attacked it, both facts would tell you something important about the situation in the far-southern Shiite port city of Basra (pop. 1.5 mn.)



Support for bombings of enemy civilians as a means of defending Islam has dropped dramatically in most Muslim countries since 2002, often being halved. The dramatic rise in Muslim victims of such tactics, not only in Iraq but also in Saudi Arabia, Morocco and elsewhere, no doubt influenced this change of attitude. The polling demonstrates that essentialist views of Muslims are always wrong. If their views of this matter can fluctuate so wildly, then it has nothing to do with their core identity. The other thing to remember is that if you asked most Americans whether it is legitimate to blow up enemy civilians to defend the United States, you'd likely get a big proportion saying 'yes.'

For the genesis of an earlier Western invasion of a major Muslim Arab country, see today's posting at my Napoleon blog.
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Bush Falsehoods about Al-Qaeda in Iraq

Bush gave a speech on Tuesday in which he made a large number inaccurate statements. Likely the recent Pentagon and White House practice of referring to all "insurgents" in Iraq as "al-Qaeda" was intended to lead up to this speech.

Bush maintained in his speech that the members of "al-Qaeda in Iraq" have pledged fealty (bay'at) to Usama Bin Laden. There is no evidence for this allegation. The foreign fighters who make up "al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia" are successors to previously-existing radical Muslim groups such as Ansar al-Islam and Monotheism and Holy War, both of which had distinct identities from al-Qaeda. Abu Musab al-Zarqawi even at one point forbade members of Monotheism and Holy War to give money to al-Qaeda. It is unlikely that they have all swung around behind Bin Laden, though some among the Saudi volunteers may have. As far back as 2005, Ansar al-Sunnah clearly feared the influence of Bin Laden and asked foreign volunteers to stop coming.

Bush made al-Qaeda in Iraq the central group in the insurgency. In fact, Pentagon statistics indicate that the US holds in captivity 19,000 Iraqis suspected of insurgent activities, whereas it has only 135 foreign fighters currently in custody. "Al-Qaeda in Iraq" is mostly foreign fighters. Obviously, it just is not that important, though it gets off some bombs, which is not to be taken lightly.

Bush says that tribal sheikhs in al-Anbar province have now taken on the foreign jihadis. But if that is so, why should we worry about them taking over Iraq? They cannot and the Iraqis would not let them (even the Sunni Iraqis would not let them, much less the Shiites or Kurds!) 1200 foreign volunteers cannot take over a country, and the US does not need 160,000 troops in Iraq to fight this small group. In fact, Bush risks raising the question of why 160,000 US troops have not made better progress against the small cohort of foreign fighters.

Bush alleged that the "al-Qaeda" fighters in Iraq are professional terrorists. He said that if he had not invaded Iraq, they would even so have been busy engaging in violence.

An analysis of persons named as fighters on internet sites 18 months ago vigorously contests Bush's allegation:

'out of 429 fighters only 22 (5.1%) have had fighting experience in other regions, demonstrating that the foreign fighters in Iraq do indeed constitute the third generation of Salafi-jihadists. . . It is worth noting that 17 out of 31 fighters [on which there was education data] quit their education to join the fight against the American occupation. This is also evident in the high percentage of BA degree holders (19.4%), which is different from what typically occurs in Salafi-jihadist movements, whose ideologues are normally the ones with high levels of education while the fighters are mostly young men who have not completed their education. . . Another interesting fact is that 22 of those fighters are married, and among those whose career status is known, 8 out of 18 (44%) work in the private sector, with some even being investors. This lends further credence to the notion that the occupation of Iraq, and all the excesses that surrounds it, is generating new developments in erstwhile socio-economically stable Salafi-jihadi networks.'

The small band of some 1200 foreign fighters in Iraq are not for the most part career terrorists as far as anyone can tell. They are too young, at an average of 27, for that description. They are a new generation. They were college students and financiers who became angry about Bush's military occupation of a Muslim Arab country. In the absence of that invasion, they would still be at ordinary ho-hum jobs.

Bush says that his occupation of Iraq cannot explain the violent tactics of the "al-Qaeda insurgents" there. He says that the US was not in Iraq during the Embassy bombings of 1998, the attack on the US Cole in 2000, or September 11.

This talking point is pure propaganda on many fronts. First of all, Bush has not established that the foreign jihadis in Iraq are "al-Qaeda" in any significant sense. So his attempt to sneak in a continuity here is not legitimate. Second, while it is true that nothing justifies the violence of al-Qaeda (especially against a ship named the Cole!), it is not true that it lacks all context or motive or that US actions in Iraq were irrelevant to it. Muslim activists believed that US sanctions on Iraq were responsible for the deaths of 500,000 Iraqi children in the 1990s, and the US continued from time to time to bomb the country.

I wrote this earlier:

' That continental rift is the reason for the great interest in Republican Presidential Candidate Ron Paul's argument with his rival Rudi Guiliani. Paul said in the recent debate that the US was attacked on 9/11 in part because of its prior involvement in Iraq.

Rudi Giuliani interrupted him, claimed he had never heard of that, and misrepresented Paul as justifying the attack.

But Paul was factually correct. In his 1996 fatwa declaring war on the United States, Bin Laden had said " . . .the civil and the military infrastructures of Iraq were savagely destroyed showing the depth of the Zionist-Crusaders' hatred to the Muslims and their children . . ."

Paul was saying that terror has a context, that the post-Gulf War US sanctions on Iraq in the 1990s that allegedly caused the deaths of 500,000 children helped produce hatred for this country in the Middle East.

In his reply to Giuliani's demand for a retraction, Paul said,


' “I believe the CIA is correct when it warns us about blowback. We overthrew the Iranian government in 1953 and their taking the hostages was the reaction. This dynamic persists and we ignore it at our risk. They’re not attacking us because we’re rich and free, they’re attacking us because we’re over there.” '

The final thing to say is that in 2001 you could argue that Bush was not responsible for al-Qaeda, though he did not take it seriously for the first 8 months (and his father had something to do while Vice President in the 1980s with helping create it to fight the Soviets). But in 2007, if al-Qaeda is still there, if Bin Laden is still there to accept oaths of fealty, if it forms a major threat to the US-- as Bush alleges-- then it is his fault for not doing a better job against it in the past 6 years.

Bush's falsehoods are unlikely to get much play or make any converts. The American public already knows the things I am saying (a big difference from 2003!) A few professional pundits who get rich off pandering to warmongers will trumpet the speech.
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Global Warming

CNN/YouTube Debate: Global Warming

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John Edwards - Hair

A particularly well done campaign commercial attempting to blunt the critique of Edwards as all hair, no substance.

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Biden thinks gun owner should have his head examined

A dramatic moment from the Democratic Debate on YouTube/CNN

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Cole in Salon: "Bush's incompetence gives al-Qaida new life"

My column is out in Salon.com on Tuesday, "Bush's incompetence gives al-Qaida new life":

The White House hints at military action as the terror organization regroups in northern Pakistan and the Musharraf government begins to wobble."

Excerpt:

' not only has al-Qaida reconstituted itself in the tribal areas of northern Pakistan, and not only did a sort of Pakistani Taliban make a play for control of some of the country's capital, but the Taliban allies of al-Qaida are resurgent in southern Afghanistan. In recent weeks they have pulled off destructive suicide bombings against NATO troops and Afghan civilians. On Monday, Taliban forces killed six NATO troops, four in a roadside bombing. On July 18 and July 19, they had kidnapped two Germans and 23 Koreans. One of the German hostages was found shot on Saturday. The presence of NATO forces and more than 20,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan has not stopped the Taliban from attempting to regain control of the Pashtun regions.

The resurgence of al-Qaida, and the usefulness of Bush's Iraq war as a recruiting tool, were further demonstrated by events in Europe. On July 21, Italian authorities announced the arrest of three Moroccans, whom they charged with running a terror-training program from a mosque and of being linked to al-Qaida. It is believed that their trainees were placed throughout the world, including in Iraq.

In an ideal world the United States could deal with such a threat by close cooperation with Italian counterterrorism officials. But the 2003 kidnapping of an Egyptian terror suspect named Abu Omar in Italy by Central Intelligence Agency operatives without Italian permission has roiled relations between the two countries. "

Read the whole thing.
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Debate Scorecard on Iraq

Here is the debate transcript from last night.

The candidates basically split into a) those who wanted gradual withdrawal with political arrangements and perhaps some troops left in Iraq; and b) those who wanted an immediate and complete military withdrawal, followed by diplomacy.

Biden, Clinton and Obama seemed to be in the gradualist camp, though Obama did not say whether he would keep some troops in Iraq.

Dodd, Edwards, Gravel, Kucinich, and Richardson wanted immediate and complete withdrawal.

There is thus a clear break between 3 of the sitting senators and the other candidates on this issue, which goes to matters of pragmatism, geopolitics, and the future American position in the Middle East. Elsewhere, Clinton has said she'd keep troops in Iraqi Kurdistan. Biden wants a soft partition of the country as a prelude to US gradual withdrawal.

With regard to Iraq, I did a keyword search and tried to pull out the candidates' stances. This time, I'll post them in alphabetical order:


BIDEN: Anderson, you've been there. You know we can't just pull out now. Let's get something straight. It's time to start to tell the truth. The truth of the matter is: If we started today, it would take one year, one year to get 160,000 troops physically out of Iraq, logistically.

That's number one.

Number two, you cannot pull out of Iraq without the follow-on that's been projected here, unless you have a political solution. I'm the only one that's offered a political solution.

And it literally means separate the parties; give them jurisdiction in their own areas; have a decentralized government, a federal system. No central government will work.

And, thirdly, the fact of the matter is, the very thing everybody's quoting is the very legislation I wrote in January. It said: Begin to draw down combat troops now; get the majority of the combat troops out by March of '08.

There's not one person in here that can say we're going to eliminate all troops...

COOPER: OK, time.

BIDEN: ... unless you're going to eliminate every physical person who's an American in Iraq.



CLINTON: American ground troops I don't think belong in Darfur at this time. I think we need to focus on the United Nations peacekeeping troops and the African Union troops.

We've got to figure out what we're doing in Iraq, where our troops are stretched thin, and Afghanistan, where we're losing the fight to al Qaeda and bin Laden. . .

since the election of 2006, the Democrats have tried repeatedly to win Republican support with a simple proposition that we need to set a timeline to begin bringing our troops home now.

I happen to agree that there is no military solution, and the Iraqis refuse to pursue the political solutions. In fact, I asked the Pentagon a simple question: Have you prepared for withdrawing our troops? In response, I got a letter accusing me of being unpatriotic; that I shouldn't be asking questions.

Well, one of the problems is that there are a lot of questions that we're asking but we're not getting answers from the Bush administration.

COOPER: Time.

CLINTON: And it's time for the Republicans to join us in standing up to the president to bring our troops home. . .


CLINTON: You know, I put forth a comprehensive three-point plan to get our troops out of Iraq, and it does start with moving them out as soon as possible.

But Joe is right. You know, I have done extensive work on this. And the best estimate is that we can probably move a brigade a month, if we really accelerate it, maybe a brigade and a half or two a month. That is a lot of months.

My point is: They're not even planning for that in the Pentagon. You know, Mr. Berry, I am so sorry about the loss of your son. And I hope to goodness your youngest son doesn't face anything like that.

But until we get this president and the Pentagon to begin to at least tell us they are planning to withdraw, we are not going to be able to turn this around.

And so, with all due respect to some of my friends here -- yes, we want to begin moving the troops out, but we want to do so safely, and orderly and carefully.

We don't want more loss of American life and Iraqi life as we attempt to withdraw, and it is time for us to admit that it's going to be complicated, so let's start it now. . .



DODD: . . . It has been said from the very beginning: There is no military solution to this civil war in Iraq. . . I think it's incumbent upon the Congress. . .

There is a sense of disappointment. We should set that time certain. I don't normally advocate that here, but I know of no other way we're going to convince the political and religious leaders in Iraq to take seriously their responsibility to decide to form a nation-state or not.

I think by saying with clarity here that we are withdrawing and redeploying our forces out of there, robustly pursuing diplomacy, which we have not done at all here. This administration treats statecraft and diplomacy as if it were a gift to your opponents here.

We need to have a program here that allows us to become much more engaged in the region. . .

DODD: I have advocated, again, that we have our troops out by April of next year. I believe that the timeframe is appropriate to do that. I would urge simultaneously that we do the things we've talked about here, and that is pursue the diplomatic efforts in the region to at least provide Iraq the opportunity to get on its feet. But I believe our military ought to be out before that. . .



EDWARDS: I don't think any of our troops die in vain when they go and do the duty that's been given to them by the commander in chief. No, I don't think they died in vain.

But I think the question is -- the question is: What is going to be done to stop this war?

The other people have raised the question earlier. And in fact, Senator Obama spoke just a minute ago about the White House agreeing that the parliament, the Iraqi parliament could take a month-long vacation because it was too hot, while our men and women are putting their lives on the line every day.

Here's my question. While the Iraqi parliament is on vacation, is George Bush going to be on vacation in Crawford, Texas?

What we need to do is turn up the heat on George Bush and hold him responsible and make this president change course.

(APPLAUSE)

It is the only way he will change course. He will never change course unless he's made to do it. . .




GRAVEL: . . . I'll tell you, John, it's a set up question. Our soldiers died in Vietnam in vain. You can now, John, go to Hanoi and get a Baskin-Robbins ice cream cone. That's what you can do. And now we have most favored nation trade.

What did all these people die for? What are they dying for right now in Iraq every single day? Let me tell you: There's only one thing worse than a soldier dying in vain; it's more soldiers dying in vain. . .



KUCINICH: . . . The answer to your question, ma'am, is: Yes, it is politics. The Democrats have failed the American people. When we took over in January, the American people didn't expect us to give them a Democratic version of the war. They expected us to act quickly to end the war.

And here's how we can do it. It doesn't take legislation. That's a phony excuse to say that you don't have the votes. We appropriated $97 billion a month ago. We should tell President Bush, no more funds for the war, use that money to bring the troops home, use it to bring the troops home. . .

KUCINICH: The underlying assumption here is that we're going to be in Iraq until the next president takes office, and I reject that totally. People can send a message to Congress right now -- and this is in a convention of this appearance -- they can text peace, and text 73223, text peace. Send a message to Congress right now, you want out.

I introduced a plan four years ago, Anderson, that was a full plan to remove our troops. I'm the only one on this stage -- excuse me -- who not only voted against this war, but voted against funding the war.

(APPLAUSE)

It is not credible to say you oppose the war from the start when you voted to fund it 100 percent of the time, 70 percent, 5 percent of the time. Let's get real about this war. Let's get those troops home and let's take a stand and do it now. Send a message to Congress now. . .

KUCINICH: No [MY RIVALS ARE NOT GREEN ENOUGH]. And I think that the reason is that if you support, for example, in Iraq, if you say that Iraq should privatize its oil for the U.S. oil companies, then what you're doing is you're continuing a commitment to use more oil. If you believe that all options should be put on the table with respect to Iran, that's about oil.

So we need to move away from reliance on oil...



OBAMA: . . . At this point, I think we can be as careful getting out as we were careless getting in. But we have to send a clear message to the Iraqi government as well as to the surrounding neighbors that there is no military solution to the problems that we face in Iraq.

We just heard a White House spokesman, Tony Snow, excuse the fact that the Iraqi legislature went on vacation for three weeks because it's hot in Baghdad. Well, let me tell you: It is hot for American troops who are over there with 100 pounds worth of gear. . .

OBAMA: I would [MEET WITH IRAN, SYRIA, OTHER BADDIES]. And the reason is this, that the notion that somehow not talking to countries is punishment to them -- which has been the guiding diplomatic principle of this administration -- is ridiculous.

(APPLAUSE)

Now, Ronald Reagan and Democratic presidents like JFK constantly spoke to Soviet Union at a time when Ronald Reagan called them an evil empire. And the reason is because they understood that we may not trust them and they may pose an extraordinary danger to this country, but we had the obligation to find areas where we can potentially move forward.

And I think that it is a disgrace that we have not spoken to them. We've been talking about Iraq -- one of the first things that I would do in terms of moving a diplomatic effort in the region forward is to send a signal that we need to talk to Iran and Syria because they're going to have responsibilities if Iraq collapses.

They have been acting irresponsibly up until this point. But if we tell them that we are not going to be a permanent occupying force, we are in a position to say that they are going to have to carry some weight, in terms of stabilizing the region. . .



RICHARDSON: There's a big difference on Iraq between me and the senators, and here's where it is.

The lives of our young troops are more important than George Bush's legacy.

This is what I stand for: I believe we should bring all the troops home by the end of this year, in six months, with no residual forces -- no residual forces.

(APPLAUSE)

This is critically important. A hundred American troops are dying every month. And this war is a quagmire. It's endless. . .

RICHARDSON: The diplomatic work cannot begin to heal Iraq, to protect our interests, without troops out. Our troops have become targets. You are going to say six months, because it might provoke a civil war. There is a civil war. There is sectarian conflict.

(APPLAUSE)

The time has come, and I get challenged. I have no troops left. One hundred are dying a month. . .
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Massive Bomb Kills 22, Wounds 60 at Hillah
US Blockades Mahdi Army
New Turkish Government may Decline Military Option

A suicide car bombing of a market in the southern Shiite city of Hillah killed at least 22 persons and wounded 60 on Tuesday morning. The northern reaches of Babil province are heavily Sunni Arab, and these have been waging a dirty war against Shiites. Most of their violence has concentrated on cities such as Iskandariya, but sometimes they have managed to hit as far south into Shiite territory as Hillah. This attack demonstrates that the Sunni Arab guerrillas continue to have the resources to hit Shiites, even in their own southern strongholds.

Also near Hillah, Sawt al-Iraq reports in Arabic that the US military took into custody the local Badr Corps commander. This Shiite paramilitary, a subsidiary of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, was trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps but has generally avoided conflict with the US forces. The reason for the raid was not reported.

Meanwhile, near Baghdad, US forces are blockading the Shiite Husseiniya district, in an attempt to crack down on Shiite Mahdi Army militiamen there. This article implies that so many civilians died after a US bombing of a paramilitary position this weekend because the guerrillas had stored explosives there and the secondary explosions took out surrounding houses.

A US push all at once against Mahdi Army, Badr Corps and the Sunni Arab insurgency could overstretch American forces and cause even more turmoil.

This article from the Independent underscores the new complications for Turkey's government of any cross-border raids into Iraq. It notes that 100 of the ruling AKP party's MPs are of Kurdish origin. In addition 24 Kurdish independents won seats. PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan may need their support to elect his choice of president.

I think the article errs in seeing the military as the main proponent of a hard line stance against the Kurdish Worker Party guerrillas (PKK) who have safe harbor on the Iraqi side of the border and have been attacking Turkish police and soldiers in Anatolia. The AKP politicians have spoken just as vehemently of a strike into Iraqi Kurdistan under certain conditions. And, their Kurdish-heritage MPs may have grudges against the PKK, which was known for hitting Kurds as well as Turkish authorities during its dirty war of the 1980s and 1990s.

Still, the article may be right that the outcome of the parliamentary elections and the new prominence of Kurdish representatives has reduced the likelihood of a hot war on the Iraqi border.

McClatchy depicts the competition between US and Iraqi forces in the wake of a Baghdad bombing.

McClatchy reports that 24 bodies were found in Baghdad on Monday, and bombings killed another two dozen persons in the capital.

In news I hadn't seen elsewhere, McClatchy says that 6 Kurdish troops were recently killed in Mosul. You wonder about the ethnic composition of the Iraqi army in that city.

Sawt al-Iraq writes in Arabic about the disappointing harvest in Dhi Qar Province this summer. The article blames the salinization of the soil and of the Euphrates itself. Peasants seem not to have had sufficient incentives to expand the amount of land cultivated. There were also problems with access to silos. Also, a number of key agricultural development projects have not been implemented. The article is not explicit about whether security is part of the problem. I cannot understand the problem of salinization of soil. In Egypt this has happened in the Delta because of the flow of the Nile slowing (as a result of the Aswan Dam), and the Mediterranean coming in as a result. But the Euphrates has not been dammed except at its headwaters in Turkey. Some observers think there will be water wars in the Middle East during the coming century. Anyway, I hope the shortfall in the harvest does not mean that Iraqis will have difficulty getting food. The four horsemen of the apocalypse seem to be stomping around the place.
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Christian extremists disrupt Hindu Senate invocation

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Napoleon's Invasion of the Middle East

At my book blog for my new publication on Bonaparte's Egypt expedition, I have been putting up some texts related to the misadventure The first close-up Western view of Egypt's Bedouin is posted today; ominously, this bit of colonial anthropology was made possible by some French scientists (savants) being taken hostage for ransom just after Gen. Bonaparte took the port city of Alexandria.



This of PBS documentary on Bonaparte, which covers the Egyptian expedition, is worth looking at if you haven't.

Enjoy!
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NYC Firefighters Critique Giuliani on 9/11

Was traveling and just saw this. The firefighters are critical of the no-bid contracts for communications equipment let by Giuliani, which ended up not working very well. Also other issues.

No bid contracts? Where have I heard that before?. (Scroll down to "Big Success in Iraq".)

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Turkish Muslim Party Wins Landslide
US Raids Umm al-Qura Mosque
Sistani said in Peril

In neighboring Turkey, the Islamically tinged AK Party won nearly 47% of the vote on Sunday, which will allow it, after a multiplier is applied, to rule with a comfortable margin without needing a coalition party. It has been suggested that the recent sabre rattling coming out of Turkey toward the Kurds in Iraq was a matter of posturing for the sake of garnering votes in the election. I suppose we are about to find out. One danger to Turkish stability, as the FT notes, is that if PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan grows too arrogant and rash as a result of his popular victory, he may respond so forcefully to the situation in Kurdistan that he accidentally produces an unnecesary crisis.

The US military raided the Umm al-Qura mosque complex in Baghdad, HQ of the Association of Muslim Scholars, and arrested 18 persons they accused of being in the guerrilla movement, including the son of the mosque's preacher. The AMS condemned the raid, as did, outside Iraq, the Arab League.

US ambassador in Iraq Ryan Crocker is asking that all Iraqi US government employees be given immigrant visas to the United States up front, according to WaPo.

It seems fairly clear that the educated middle classes are fleeing Iraq in droves and that the US government now faces a shortage of qualified translators and other employees necessary to the US enterprise in that country.

This cable from the Baghdad embassy suggests that things are very, very bad.

The NYT profiles Muqtada al-Sadr and the way he has been able to pose both as an insider and an outsider to the government at once (i.e. he knows the same tricks as Karl Rove, Bush's campaign adviser). This report suggests that the Sadr Movement is attracting southern Shiites in droves and is providing services to the poor. (Muqtada al-Sadr's father used to do that, too). The only thing I disagree with is the assertion or implication that Muqtada al-Sadr launched an anti-US military insurgency, simultaneously with or in imitation of the Sunni Arab insurgents. Muqtada did form a militia, the Mahdi Army, in summer, 2003, but it was highly disciplined and he strictly forbade it to attack US troops. It did not. The fighting between the US military and Sadr's military came only after then civil administrator Paul Bremer and Gen. Rick Sanchez suddenly announced that they intended to "kill or capture" Muqtada al-Sadr. Only then did his movement turn violent in any significant way, in self-defense.

Police in the Shiite holy city of Najaf are questioning the safety of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani in the wake of the assassination of one of his aides in his compound, just yards away from the grand ayatollah. Radical Sunni groups have vowed several times on the internet to kill Sistani. His death might well throw Iraq into fatal turmoil.


Army Maj. Gen. Benjamin Mixon is advocating that Ninevah Province hold provincial elections and that then US forces be withdrawn from it, leaving security duties to Iraqi army and police. He maintains that the Iraqi security forces are already operating independently there for the most part. Hear, hear! Give that man a medal and do what he says. Foreign military forces have withdrawn from 6 of Iraq's provinces (3 Kurdish-- Dohuk, Sulaymaniyah, Irbil-- and 3 Shiite--Dhi Qar, Maysan and Muthanna). Iraq has 18 provinces, so there are only 12 to go. Mosul, Najaf and Karbala are good candidates for the next 3. If the Shiite military and police cannot or will not defend security in Najaf and Karbala, they are not any good and never will be. Those provinces contain cities that mean a great deal to them.

Reuters reports that 16 bodies were found in Baghdad on Sunday.

McClatchy adds, "Around 12:30 p.m. A suicide truck bomb targeted a tribal leader house in Al Taji in Jurf Al Milah. 5 were killed and 12 were injured . . ."

Also, "Six men were killed (most of them are Kurds) and 4 other citizens were injured in the last 24 hours in Mosul is separated attacks. . ."

and

"Gunmen attacked three trucks carrying watermelon on the main road from Khanqeen to Buhruz. 6 men were killed in the attack."
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Feingold to Introduce Censure Resolution against Bush

Senator Russ Feingold plans to introduce a censure motion against Bush for misleading the US public into war, he told Meet the Press on Sunday.

Feingold makes the good points that the president has been involved in things that look like criminality; that the votes aren't there to impeach him; but that at the very least his enormities should not be allowed to pass without some statement from the legislature. Feingold suggests that such a censure vote might even attract support from some Republicans. Since the Republicans have stopped so much as mentioning Bush when they want to convince the public of something, Feingold is likely right about this point. It could be a way for some of them to distance themselves from Bush before the next election.

Video from NBC:

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Blumenthal: Young Republican Chicken Hawks

Max Blumenthal via YouTube,on young Republican Chicken Hawks [wouldn't they just be 'chicks'? Or maybe 'peepees'?].

You'd think after what happened to Jonah Goldberg, they'd get together and make up some sort of collective alibi or something.

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Napoleon's Egypt

I am repeating this posting for Monday, since many readers skip the weekends.

I just received an advance copy of my new book, Napoleon's Egypt: Invading the Middle East. I'm a proud parent/author and breaking out the virtual cigars. I think Palgrave Macmillan did a stellar job with the editing and production. The actual publication date is August 7.



This episode, all too little known, was the first instance of a modern European country attempting to invade, occupy and "liberate" an Arab, Muslim Middle Eastern region.

I have started a historical blog on the book as a place to put up some materials that might interest readers of the book, as a sort of supplement. If I get time I may do some translating or posting of translated texts.

The first posting was of the relevant portion of a PBS documentary on Bonaparte, which covers the Egyptian expedition.

Enjoy!
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How to Create an Angry American

Repeated from Sunday

A clever montage of Bush administration falsehoods and denials regarding the Iraq War, via YouTube (film-maker's link).

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US Airstrike Kills 15 Children, Women, Men;
Mosul Rocked by Death Squad, Roadside Bomb Killings;
Shiite UIA Rejects Arming Sunni Arabs

The United States military has bombed Iraqi cities quite a lot. But few reporters have asked the question raised by Hannah Allam and Jenan Hussein about who exactly is being killed in such raids. On Saturday, the US said its airstrike killed 6 militants. Iraqi Shiites maintain that two families were killed and that the corpses of 15 parents and children have been pulled out of the rubble in the al-Husseiniya district of northern Baghdad. Associated Press television news showed the bodies of women and children in the rubble. Apparently the US pilots were trying, at least, to kill Mahdi Army militiamen.

Radio Sawa reports that the United Iraqi Alliance bloc in parliament met and rejected the new US policy of arming Sunni Arab groups to fight "al-Qaeda" in Iraq. The UIA, the leading bloc in parliament, is a coalition of Shiite fundamentalist parties. They insisted that arms be only in the hands of state forces.

"Al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia" has alienated a lot of Sunni Arab Iraqis, and appears to have assassinated [the nephew of Harith al-Dhari, who bored the same name of his uncle] a leader of the 1920 Revolution Brigades. [The uncle, a leader of the Association of Muslim Scholars, is in hiding in Amman, Jordan]. The Guardian reported recently that 7 Iraqi Sunni guerrilla groups are forming a political party and have turned against "al-Qaeda" (mainly foreign fighters adhering to the Salafi Jihadi ideology). (For the main guerrilla groups See this background piece.

The Shiite parliamentarians are alarmed at the US military's plan to arm Sunni Arab guerrillas to fight "al-Qaeda." Unlike clueless US pundits such as Charles Krauthammer, these UIA MPs know that being against "al-Qaeda" does not mean being for the al-Maliki government. The Sunni Arabs willing to fight the foreign volunteers are just as anti-Shiite and anti-government as ever, and, armed, will pose new problems for the al-Maliki government as the US draws down its troops over the next couple of years.

Another UIA parliamentarian, Abbas al-Bayati, announced Saturday that the negotiations over the petroleum bill now being considered in the Iraqi legislature are too complicated to be concluded before the August recess, so it will be put aside until September. Were parliament to follow through on this plan, it would guarantee that US Ambassador Ryan Crocker would have no good political news to report in his key September testimony before Congress.

Alarmed, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki issued a plea to parliament to cancel or much shorten its planned one-month recess after he met on Saturday with Crocker. Prime ministers who have to plea and wheedle their own parliament aren't worth much.

Sawt al-Iraq reports in Arabic that Shaikh Abdullah Falak, a clerical official in charge of collecting religious taxes for Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistan, was found shot to death in his office in in the Shiite holy city of Najaf late Friday. Usually Sistani's offices are heavily guarded, so the killing is unusual. There is no word on the perpetrator, but Sistani has lots of enemies and so would anyone who collected and distributed large amounts of money on his behalf.

Tim Phelps of Newsday interviews academic Iraq experts and finds that they generally agree that a precipitate US military withdrawal will throw Iraq into catastrophic violence with bad effects for Iraqis and for the world. I am the dissenter among them in this article, but I agree that the risks are substantial if the withdrawal is not done right. I completely disagree, however, with the scenario where "al-Qaeda" takes over anything in Iraq. If by this is meant the few hundred Sunni Arab volunteers of a Salafi Jihadi persuasion, the Iraqis would slit their throats and the country's neighbors would help.

Meanwhile, it looks to me as though security is worsening considerably in Iraq's second largest city, Mosul, in the north. See below.

McClatchy reports major civil war violence on Saturday. Excerpts::

' [Mosul, a northern city of 1.5 million]: 6 policemen were killed and 2 others wounded in an IED explosion targeted their patrol in Wadi Al Hajar neighborhood west Mosul city early morning. . .

[Mosul]: 11 anonymous bodies including 4 bodies of women had been found early morning today in Noor neighborhood and Bakir neighborhood east Mosul city . . .

[Baghdad]: 5 were killed and 8 others wounded in an IED explosion targeted a bus in Baladiyat east Baghdad around 12,00.am. . .


- 17 anonymous bodies had been found in Baghdad today. . .

Diyala: A medical source in Baquba public hospital said that 8 civilians including 2 children and 3 women had been injured when mortar shells hit Buhruz town south Baquba around 10,30 am. . .

Kirkuk [Province]: 2 policemen were killed near Al Kuba village west of Kirkuk today morning. The police sources said that a police patrol found a body of a man near the main road and when two policemen tried to carry the body, it exploded killing them both. . . '

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