Basra Governor Dismissed
Fadhila Brands al-Maliki Gov. "the New Baath"
Sunnis Complain about "Threats"
The Sunni Arab bloc in parliament, the Iraqi Accord Front, traded insults on Saturday with the al-Maliki government. In the wake of its suspension of participation in the government on Wednesday, al-Maliki's spokesman, Ali Dabbagh made a statement that the Sunnis are interpreting as threatening and coercive, according to al-Hayat writing in Arabic. He say that political adventurism might lead into dangers that would be fruitless for everyone.
Al-Sharq al-Awsat reports in Arabic that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has fired Basra governor Muhammad Misbah al-Wa'ili of the Islamic Virtue Party (Fadhila). I had summarized Arabic newspaper reports on April 30 about the vote of no-confidence brought against the governor by the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council. There are 41 seats on the Basra governing council, which was elected in January, 2005. SIIC has 20 seats. Fadhila or Virtue had about 15, but was able to convince 6 independents to vote with it, thus creating a Virtue-dominated provincial administration.
In March, the Islamic Virtue Party pulled out of the [Shiite] United Iraqi Alliance coalition in the federal government, in which it had been allotted 15 seats. In part they were protesting their loss of the petroleum ministry portfolio, which had gone to the Supreme Council. They had had that ministry under the previous prime minister, Ibrahim Jaafari, and since Basra is the big oil refining city, their control of both allowed for downward integration (their critics accused Fadhila of embezzling gasoline to support their party and militia). In reaction against the defection of the Islamic Virtue Party from the UIA, the Supreme Council appears to have decided to attract the loyalty of a few of the independents and to unseat al-Wa'ili. In this goal they succceeded. Al-Wa'ili then appealed to al-Maliki to adjudicate the dispute. The decision announced late Saturday appears to have been al-Maliki's response to the appeal. He seems to have put off the decision until parliament was on the cusp of its August recess, perhaps as a way of limiting the political response and fall-out.
The Islamic Virtue Party in Basra rejected the prime minister's decision, calling it part of a campaign of defamation against the party in the wake of its break with the ruling United Iraqi Alliance. Party leaders said that the al-Maliki government "has lost its legimitacy" and branded it "the New Baath."
Al-Maliki's letter noted that the Basra governing council conducted a vote of no confidence against al-Wa'ili, and that it had the right to do so under the Bremer Laws. The letter said that it was incumbent on the council now to elect a new governor.
The Islamic Virtue Party is appealing to the constitutional court. Its deputy leader warned that demonstrations could roil the city and that they could turn bloody.
Basra appears to have been without a functioning government since the beginning of May, and now may be paralyzed by faction fighting over al-Wa'ili's dismissal.
All this is inconvenient to the British, who would like to turn security duties in the province over to the local government by the end of 2007.
Basra is Iraq's major export port, and it is from there that the country exports 1.8 million barrels a day of petroleum. If social order there collapses, it could make it difficult for the federal government in Baghdad to function either, since it depends on the proceeds from petroleum sales.
Some 20 bodies were found dead in the streets of Baghdad on Saturday. Guerrillas dressed as women attacked a Kurdish police checkpoint and killed 3 policemen. There were bombings and mortar attacks in Baghdad.
Labels: Iraq
posted by Juan Cole @ 7/29/2007 12:31:00 AM
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4 Comments:
It is almost impossible to believe that the Sunni bloc would break the so-called unity government without consulting with the US first.
Here is a clue from Kissinger's June 29th commentary:
"Its purpose should be to define the international status of the emerging Iraqi political structure into a series of reciprocal obligations. Iraq would continue to evolve as a sovereign state but agree to place itself under some international restraint in return for specific guarantees. In such a scheme, the US-led multinational force would be gradually transformed into an agent of that arrangement, along the lines of the Bosnian settlement in the Balkans or the Afghan structure. International forces would be established along Iraq’s frontiers to block infiltration. While long-term bilateral security arrangements have advantages, the price for international support is likely to be progressive internationalisation and a verifiable commitment to non-intervention by its neighbours."
The Iraqi regime acts on the basis that the US will continue to prop it up forever to avoid the failure of democracy in the Middle East.
Saddam also believd that he was crucial to the US in the 1980s. But it didn't take Goofy (Bush senior) long to lure him into Kuwait then zap him and Iraq with him when Saddam's services were no longer required.
As for democracy, it is amazing that the Kurds in particular have forgotten the solid support Saddam had from the USA for gassing them in 1988! Democracy? Try humanity first.
As the British draw down their forces in Basra during the coming months it could be a foretaste of what will happen when US forces try to hand over security to the Iraqi National Army on a wider scale.
I'm not betting on a happy outcome.
As you of course know, the Danish contingent is in the midst of withdrawal from their base which has been taking increased rocket attacks.
The sticky point is that there is only one road they can drive out from their base on and it goes through a town (which I forget the name of). If they take real casualties, it does not bode well for the 8000 Brits, not to mention the 150000 or so American troops (not to mention contracted personnel).
Dear Professor Cole
The process taking place at the moment is disturbingly similar to the process that took place during the Thirty Years War. The side effects of one phase being brought to a conclusion generated enough combustibles to spread the war to other areas and allow the conflict to change in character from a religeous war to a political war.
For those who need a refresher Thirty Years War was fought between Austria and Sweden in Germany with Mercenary Armies, France won and Spain lost.
Turkey set to defy US and hunt Kurdish rebels
By Gethin Chamberlain, Sunday Telegraph
Last Updated: 12:43am BST 29/07/2007
Turkey's newly elected government is prepared to turn its back on its long-standing alliance with the United States to counter the threat of Kurdish terrorism, one of the closest allies of the prime minister has warned.
Egemen Bagis said the US must appreciate that Turkey was prepared to go into Iraq
Egemen Bagis, foreign policy advisor to Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said Turkish forces were prepared to mount operations against Kurdish PKK fighters who had taken refuge in Iraq, because the US had failed to intervene.
"We are hoping we will not have to do it. We are hoping that our allies will start doing something, but if they don't we don't have many options," he said.
"Our allies should help us with the threat, which is clear and present. If an ally is not helping you, you either question their integrity or their ability."
A decision to sanction military action might also help to avert a potential clash between the new government and Turkey's powerful army, which is unhappy with what it regards as creeping Islamisation. Last weekend's elections were precipitated by the army's opposition to the AK party's choice of Abdullah Gul, the foreign minister, as its presidential candidate. The generals regard Mr Gul's Islamic roots - and his wife's preference for wearing a headscarf - as a threat to Turkey's traditional secularism.
advertisementBut on the back of its landslide victory, the AK believes that it now has the democratic mandate to force through his election in the 550-member parliament, which is due to convene for the first time this week.
"I think we can declare Mr Gul as the next president of Turkey," Mr Bagis told The Sunday Telegraph. "He will make a great president."
Turkey's generals want to go after the Kurdish terrorist group because of a sudden upsurge in attacks, many from across the Iraqi border, and there has been a steady Turkish military build-up on the frontier between the two countries.
Mr Bagis said the US must appreciate that Turkey was prepared to go into Iraq, even if such a move put it on collision course with Washington, which is desperate not to destabilise the Kurdish region of Iraq.
"We would not hesitate for a second and we would not ask anyone's permission," he said.
Washington has made clear to the Turkish government that any military incursion would be unacceptable, but the Turks are in no mood for compromise.
A poll last week by the US-based Pew organisation found that 72 per cent of Turks regarded terrorism as the key issue facing the country. The same poll showed that only 9 per cent of Turks had a positive view of the US, with more than three quarters concerned that the Americans could pose a military threat to their country. Many Turks believe that the US has been supporting the Kurds.
More than 40,000 Turks have died in the 30-year war with the PKK and 76 soldiers have been killed this year alone, the latest in a clash in northeast Turkey on Friday. Mourners have shouted anti-US slogans at recent funerals.
"We are telling our allies that their image is going down," Mr Bagis said. "Support for US foreign policy in Turkey is at an all time low.
"The US and the UK must understand that you guys took extra measures in the aftermath of 9/11 and the London bombs and we have lost many more lives."
Nejat Eslen, a retired general, said the military was losing patience with its American allies.
"The US crossed the Atlantic in the name of fighting terror in Iraq an Afghanistan. Turkey is helping the US in Afghanistan. And yet it doesn't allow Turkey, a Nato ally, to cross its own border for the same reasons. What sort of a friendship is this? This is how enemies behave."
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