Al-Maliki Backs Security Pact; Muqtada Calls for 'Universal Demonstration', Threatens Guerrilla Strikes; Sistani Warns he May Intervene;

McClatchy reports that Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has decided to back the draft security agreement between Iraq and the Bush administration. The LAT stresses what al-Maliki did not get from the Americans everything he demanded, especially with regard to exposure of US troops to prosecution in Iraqi courts for crimes committed in Iraq.

AP quoted an aide to Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the spiritual leader of many Iraqi Shiites, as saying that if he felt the agreement infringed on Iraqi sovereignty, he would "directly intervene." Other aides have said that Sistani would be inclined to accept the agreement if parliament did, but it is not clear that they were transmitting a message from him so much as expressing their impressions of his stance (which may have been incorrect). Sistani was a major force in challenging the original draft proposed by Bush, which left Iraq little real sovereignty.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that an unnamed high official in Iraq said that he expected the cabinet to pass the agreement on Sunday or Monday, since it was supported by the ministers with "sovereignty portfolios" (Defense, Interior, Foreign Affairs, and Finance), as well as by the Kurdistan Alliance, and the Iraqi Accord Front (Sunni). He said that the leader of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, had recently begun stressing that his position (earlier critical) was "flexible." The NYT is less sure that the Kurdistan Alliance will back the agreement, which apparently has language in it about central government control that makes some of them fear it can be used as an instrument to reduce Kurdish semi-autonomy.

al-Hayat said that Muqtada al-Sadr defiantly rejected the agreement and talked in a statement read out by Salah al-Ubaidi at the Kufa Mosque about the "Brigade of the Judgment Day" that he said would fight the American military if it decided to remain in Iraq. He called for a unified (Shiite and Sunni) Friday prayer session in the middle of Baghdad to be followed by a demonstration condemning the agreement. Muqtada said that the new special force would only turn its weapons on foreign troops (i.e. it would not challenge the Iraqi military itself, which is largely loyal to al-Maliki). Muqtada's statement said, "If the American forces remain, I will reinforce the resisters, especially the brigades subsumed under the banner of the Judgment Day." He called on the "special groups" or "Bands of the Eternal Truth" (which the US charges are Iran-backed) to "enlist behind this mujahid banner." (Although some observers said he threatened to create a new fighting unit, in fact he has talked this way before and seems to be referring in code to existing forces, which have temporarily stood down. It strikes me that he might be trying to get control of the "special groups" by promising them a sectorial, militant role. But it is rumored that Iran now feels that the best way to get the US out is to cease attacking its troops, so Muqtada, who is a guest of Iran at the moment, may be bluffing.)

He also called for all Friday prayer congregations in the capital to hold a joint mega-ceremony next Friday in the midst of Baghdad "to intertwine the efforts of all Muslims-- Sunni and Shiite-- for the purpose of ensuring the failure of the agreement,which aims at selling out Iraq." He called on everyone to join a peaceful demonstration after Friday prayers. He added that he he hoped all Muslim countries would support the protest Friday prayer and demonstration by holding ones like it in their own countries.

Sadr's campaign against the security agreement may be a bid to reinvigorate his movement, which as the LAT pointed out, is struggling for relevance now that it has turned to nonviolent methods within Iraqi politics.

Iraq's national security adviser, Muwaffaq al-Rubaie, expressed confidence on Friday that British troops will be out of Iraq by the end of 2009, and that US troops will withdraw by 2011, as a result of the security agreements.

Private security firm Blackwater is under investigation for having sent forbidden weapons to iraq,

Cleric Sadr al-Din Qubanchi, who is a member of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq(ISCI), said in his Friday prayers sermon in Najaf that he hoped the High Electoral Commission had carefully vetted candidates in the upcoming provincial elections, since otherwise there was a danger of former Baathists returning to power. He was referring to Sunni-majority provinces such as al-Anbar, Ninevah, Salahuddin and Diyala, and was revealing the reason for which the ISCI of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim opposed the holding of provincial elections for so long. ISCI now controls Diyala Province, which it certainly will lose control of if the Sunni Arab voters come out for the elections on January 31. Since most capable Sunni Arabs in Iraq were either Baathists or had Baathist relatives, the fear of a resurgent Baathism has functioned to keep Sunni Arabs down politically, except for the Muslim Brotherhood analogues who favor fundamentalism and so were at odds with the secular, nationalist Baath Party.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the deputy governor of Najaf, Abdul Husain Abtan, has announced that flights will begin from the new (Iranian-built) Najaf airport on November 16. The US military has pledged support to Iraqi soldiers who will guard the airport. The first destination to be served is internal, the city of Irbil, the capital of the Kurdisan Regional Government. Soon thereafter, flights will begin to TEhran, Beirut, and Dubai. Najaf is a holy city for Shiites in particular and the new airport will over time bring millions of pilgrims to Iraq from Iran, Lebanon, the Gulf, and South Asia.

Niqash has more on the "New Najaf".

Turkish Prime Minister Rejep Tayyip Erdogan said at the Brookings Institution that the situations in Iraq and Afghanistan were much worse than the US gave out. He criticized the American tendency to throw money at problems,saying that Turkey was wiser in providing services, building schools, etc. Turkey's parliament declined to allow US troops to transit Anatolia on the way to northern Iraq in 2003, but Turkey has troops in Afghanistan as part of the NATO contingent.

Erdogan warned President-Elect Obama against a hasty withdrawal from Iraq, saying

' "law enforcement has not yet matured" and local administration is also not ready to assume responsibility. Transitioning from a "totalitarian mentality is not an easy task," he said '

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Baghdadophobia.

My paper is available on the web in pdf form: ""Marsh Arab Rebellion: Grievance, Mafias and Militias in Iraq," Fourth Wadie Jwaideh Memorial Lecture, (Bloomington, IN: Department of Near Eastern Languages and Cultures, Indiana University, 2008).

Kurt Lancaster looks at the corporate media's dependence on government sources of news in a case study of depictions of the British withdrawal from Basra in 2007, contrasting them to Informed Comment, the Christian Science Monitor and the BBC.
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Glantz: Veterans Day, 2008 : Tasks for the Obama Administration

Aaron Glantz writes in a guest op-ed for IC:

On Veterans Day, we as a nation pause to honor those who have served their country. Problem is the Bush Administration doesn’t want us to know about their sacrifice. From refusing to allow the press to photograph flag-draped coffins of the dead, to covering up the suicides of veterans after they come home, the officials in Washington who lead us to war have done everything they can to hide it’s terrible cost.

This must end in the new Administration of President Barack Obama. As President, he must send a message to the bureaucrats who crunch numbers at the Pentagon and the Department of Veterans Affairs that the American people deserve to hear the true costs of the war in Iraq.

This includes:

*High profile monthly Pentagon press conferences, where ALL casualty figures are announced to the public. Under President Bush, the Pentagon has only released these statistics in response to Freedom of Information Act requests from journalists and veterans groups. As a result, very few Americans realize that more than 75,000 US soldiers have been medically evacuated from Iraq and Afghanistan for treatment in Germany. (You can find these statistics online on an internal website of the Defense Manpower Data Center)

*High profile monthly press conferences from the Department of Veterans Affairs announcing how many Iraq and Afghanistan veterans have filed disability claims as a result of their service (over 300,000 as of October 2nd), and how many have gone to the VA to treat their war wounds (currently close to 350,000, about 150,000 of whom went to the VA for help with Post Traumatic Stress Disorder or other service-connected mental injuries). Like the Pentagon casualty statistics, these numbers only came to light because a veterans group, Veterans for Common Sense, demanded them under the Freedom of Information Act.

*An end to the culture of intimidation at the VA. Under President Bush, VA officials who have told the truth about the sorry state of veterans health care have been fired. In 2006, Dr. Frances Murphy was working as the under secretary for health policy coordination at the VA when she told the medical journal Psychiatric News that “veterans who are struggling with the aftermath of severe trauma but do not have equitable and timely access to quality mental healthcare." When the services were available, Dr. Murphy asserted that, "waiting lists render that care virtually inaccessible." Days later, Dr. Murphy was sent packing. This too must end. We need dedicated public servants like Frances Murphy to help returning veterans rebuild their lives.

*Finally, a new Obama Administration must end the era of obfuscating the number of innocent civilians killed in our occupations. Remember back it was back in 2002, shortly after the fall of the Taliban that General Tommy Franks first brushed off reporters questions with the curt statement “We don’t do body counts.” Six years later, researchers writing in the prestigious British medical journal, the Lancet, estimate as many as a million Iraqis have died in this war. Even if the truth is only half that number the catastrophe is tremendous. The American people deserve a President who’s not afraid to try to quantify the human toll among those we’ve “liberated.”

None of these changes would cost our country any money, and none of them would immediately end the war or make the world a safer place. But being open and honest with the American people would make us all more well informed and, hopefully snap us out of our collective apathy.

Regardless, each of the statistics above represent information we deserve to know as citizens. How can we even begin to honor our veterans, if we don’t even track their sacrifice?

Aaron Glantz reported extensively as an unembedded journalist in Iraq and has been covering the stories of American veterans since his return. He is author of the upcoming book The War Comes Home: Washington’s Battle Against America’s Veterans (UC Press)
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Ramadi Bombings Kill 8; Shiite Clerics Condemn Draft Security Agreement

Two suicide bombers struck at a village near Ramadi in al-Anbar Province on Saturday, killing 8 and wounding 27.

Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that officials in charge of "Operation Impose Law and Order" in Baghdad admit that the security situation in the capital has deteriorated and that there is a spike in the number and severity of attacks.

The increasing use of 'sticky bombs' is among the major concerns of security forces.

It is not surprising that Sadrist preachers condemned the proposed security pact between the al-Maliki government and the Bush administration in their Friday prayers sermons. It is much more significant that Sadr al-Din al-Qubanji of Najaf thundered against it. He represents the views of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, led by cleric Abdul Aziz al-Hakim. If ISCI opposes the agreement, it has no chance whatever of passing through parliament. I think the AFP article linked above is wrong to speculate that Sunni Arabs are reluctant to see the US go because they fear Shiite and Iranian hegemony in the aftermath. Some may feel that way; I think they are a minority. The last polling I saw put it at 9% of Sunnis who wanted the US to stick around. As reported last week, VP Tariq al-Hashimi, head of the Sunni fundamentalist Iraqi Islamic Party, has called for a national referendum on the security agreement. I read that call as hostility on his part toward it, since it likely could not pass a national vote.

Bloomberg reports that the Iraqi political elite is torn over whether to conclude the agreement with Bush or just to wait for better terms from Obama.

Iraq's Defense Minister, Lt. Gen. Abdul Qadir Ubaydi, said Saturday that "In the event of U.S. troops pulling out of Iraq, the army is ready to take responsibility for providing security in the country . . the Americans have handed over control of most of Iraq's provinces to Iraq's security forces." He said that the handover shows that the Iraqi army can now provide order.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has suggested some constitutional amendments that would grant the federal government in Baghdad wider prerogatives, especially with regard to security and foreign policy. Al-Maliki wants the parliamentary commission on constitutional revision to take up these suggestions. He says that the 2005 constitution was written at a time when there were still fears that authoritarian government could return to Iraq, but that those fears had now receded and it was clear that the constitution actually shackles "the present and the future" (i.e. by decentralizing too much and leaving the central government too weak.) Al-Maliki also attacked the sectarian and ethnic quota system by which the government informally functions,saying that it might have been necessary at one stage but now must be jettisoned.

Al-Hayat also reports that Haydar al-`Ibadi, a leader of the Da'wa (Islamic Call) Party said that the door to negotiations with the US over the security agreement has still not been closed, despite what the US Ambassador in Baghdad, Ryan Crocker, has said. Al-Hayat says that the members of parliament with whom it has spoken think it is highly unlikely even the revised security agreement can be approved by parliament during this calendar year.

Dhafir al-`Ani, a member of parliament from the Sunni fundamentalist Iraqi Accord Front, accused the Da'wa Party, led by PM Nuri al-Maliki, of monopolizing negotiations with Washington at a time when most Iraqi parties had ceased being part of the negotiations. He warned that there would be popular disturbances if the agreement is signed while the Da'wa is dominating and monpolizing the process.

Some 70 percent of Iraqis say that they want the US out of Iraq in 6 months to a year.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Saturday:

'Baghdad

A roadside bomb targeted civilians in al-Qahira neighbourhood, northern Baghdad at around 10 a.m. Saturday killing one and injuring seven others.

A roadside bomb targeted a U.S. military convoy in Talbiyah, eastern Baghdad. No casualties were reported.

A roadside bomb targeted an Iraqi army patrol in Amil neighbourhood, southwestern Baghdad, at 8.30 p.m. injuring two civilians and one soldier.

One unidentified body was found in Obaidi neighbourhood, Saturday by Iraqi police.

Kirkuk

A gunman fired at Iraqi security forces and Sahwa forces in al-Multaqa district, to the west of Kirkuk city and injured one soldier. The forces returned fire and killed the gunman.

Anbar

A suicide bomber wearing an explosive vest targeted al-Jazeera checkpoint, 20 km to the northeast of Ramadi city at 2.30 p.m. Saturday, injuring three female inspectors with the police force and four policemen. About fifteen minutes later and after a crowd had gathered; a suicide car bomb wanted to get into the crowd but was detected by the police who opened fire at the car which detonated at a distance killing eight civilians, injuring ten.

Mosul

A roadside bomb targeted Iraqi security forces in Mosul killing one soldier, injuring another.'

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Can Obama Get out of Iraq in 16 Months? Bombings Shake Baghdad

The daily bombings in Baghdad that appear to signal a resurgence of the guerrilla movement continued on Thursday, with three bombings in the capital killing 5 persons and wounding dozens.

Time asks whether President Obama will stick to his 16-month timetable for withdrawal from Iraq. The article quotes. Gen.Ray Odierno and Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari arguing for a more gradual withdrawal. The problem is that both have strong views on this matter growing out of political commitments. I'd be interested in what Iraqi analysts think.

British troops will be out of Iraq by summer, 2009, according to Sky News. It was also announced that small contingents from Romania and Bulgaria would leave by the end of December.

The US has returned an amended security agreement to the Iraqi government, having accepted some of its further demands, including Iraqi inspection of US mail. The US would go no further on Iraqi jurisdiction over off-duty US troops (Iraq wanted Iraqi authorities to decide whether a US soldier would be remanded to Iraqi custody once charged. Bush apparently made the concessions,including the one on mail inspections, because he is desperate to get a status of forces agreement concluded before he leaves office, as a way of cementing US and Iraqi relations. But McClatchy reveals that the Iraqis are calling the agreement a "withdrawal agreement."

Alissa J. Rubin of the NYT argues, "Now the Iraqis appear to be feeling less pressure from Iran, perhaps because the Iranians are less worried that an Obama government will try to force a regime change in their country."

LAT blog says that Al-Zaman is unconvinced that Iraq will be a high priority for President Obama, whereas Ahmad Chalabi's al-Mu'tamar is encouraged that the Iraqis now have an American administration todeal with that wants to withdraw from Iraq.

A controversy has broken out in Iraq in the wake of the passage of a law limiting polygamy in Iraqi Kurdistan. Some women activists want a similar limitation throughout Iraq, citing the increased incidence of men taking multiple wives in Iraq. Other women oppose the measure on the grounds that the Qur'an allows a man up to four wives. (In fact, the Qur'an conditions taking more than one wife on a man's ability to do justice to each spouse and expresses skepticism that the condition will be met. Some Iraqi commentators have wondered whether any such measure could pass parliament, given the dominance of the Shiite fundamentalist parties.

Andrew Bacevich sees the end of an arrogant evangelical foreign policy and the beginning of a more humble approach based on a Calvinist, Niebuhr-influenced realization of the sinful nature of human beings.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Thursday:

' Baghdad

- Around 7:30 am two roadside bombs targeted Sahwa members in Sheikh Omar neighborhood (north Baghdad). Two people were killed (including one Sahwa member) and five others were injured (including three Sahwa members).

- Around 8 am an adhesive bomb detonated under a civilian car near Hamza intersection in Sadr city (east Baghdad). Three civilians were wounded.

- Around 10 am a roadside bomb targeted a bus for the Baghdad municipality employees near the Ghilani shrine and mosque in Bab Al-Sharji(downtown Baghdad). One person was killed and 5 others were wounded.

- Around 8 pm a bomb which was put in a rubbish bin in Shalal market in Shaab neighborhood (east Baghdad). Five people were injured.

Mosul

- A roadside bomb targeted an Iraqi army patrol in Nahrwan neighborhood in Mosul city. Two soldiers were wounded.

- Police found one dead body for a girl in Karama neighborhood in Mosul city.

Kirkuk

- Police found a dead body in Sayada village on the way from Kirkuk to Taza ( south Kirkuk).'

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"Everybody with Obama" in Middle East; Afghanistan, Iraq Challenges to Confront new President

Mark MacKinnon writes that everybody in the Middle East is with Obama:

'There's yearning across the Middle East - at least outside of Israel and Iraqi Kurdistan - for a new face in the White House, and John McCain doesn't fit the bill. He's seen both by the governments of this region, as well as the legendary "Arab street," as too close to the policies of George W. Bush. And the eight years the latter spent as the most powerful person in the world are viewed here as an unmitigated disaster. And so the Arab world is ready to embrace the fresh-faced senator from Illinois . . . They hope a President Obama will be less unblinkingly pro-Israel, more willing than Mr. Bush to talk to those who disagree with him, and less likely to use military force to assert America's broad but declining influence in this region.'

On the other hand, some of the welcome of Obama comes from an expectation that he will pursue military conflict with some regional forces, as Reuters writes:

' Afghans welcomed Barack Obama's U.S. election victory on Wednesday, saying they looked forward to a greater focus on the war with Taliban insurgents that has killed at least 4,000 people this year alone.'

The election of Barack Obama will give Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki more maneuvering room in his quest of a timetable for US withdrawal from Iraq, argues Damien McElroy in Baghdad.

Meanwhile, one of Iraq's vice presidents, Sunni Arab politician Tariq al-Hashimi, has proposed that the draft security agreement between Iraq and the US be put to a national referendum. (Personally, I doubt it would ever pass; the Iraqis just want the US out).

Ned Parker of the LAT reports that at least 16 persons were killed and over 30 wounded in bombings and attacks in Sadr City, east Baghdad, on Tuesday.

Shell and its Iraqi partner will have a monopoly on natural gas in Basra, says a local newspaper (h/t to Iraqoilreport.com).

Ben Turner, an Iraq vet and blogger, turns the page on the Bush years.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Tuesday:

' Baghdad

Three people from one family ( a police officer and his two sons) were injured by an adhesive bomb that was stuck to their car in the central Baghdad neighborhood of Karrada around 7:15 a.m.

A policeman was killed and three others were inured when gunmen opened fire on a police patrol in al Ghadeer neighborhood in east Baghdad around 7:30 a.m.

A member of the guards of the head of the property dispute committee was killed and seven people were injured (4 other guards and 3 civilians) by an adhesive bomb that was stuck to a four-wheel drive in the Karrada neighborhood in downtown Baghdad around 12 p.m.

Around 12 p.m. an adhesive bomb that was stuck to a civilian car detonated near Ibn al Haitham hospital in Karrada neighborhood in downtown Baghdad. No casualties reported. The car was damaged.

Around 12:15 p.m. a civilian was killed and five others were injured in al Sinaa Street in downtown Baghdad by an adhesive bomb that was stuck to a civilian car that belonged to a policeman.

Four civilians were inured and eight others were injured by a roadside bomb in al Qahira neighborhood in northeast Baghdad around 1 p.m.

Seven civilians were killed and 18 others were wounded by a bomb that was planted under a vendor's stand inside al Mashtal bus station in east Baghdad around 2 p.m.

Gunmen assassinated a Lieutenant Colonel working for the ministry of interior affairs inside his car on al Qanat Street in east Baghdad around 2:15 p.m.

Kirkuk

Around 11 a.m. a roadside bomb blew up near one of the offices of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan's party in the Nasr area in downtown Kirkuk. No casualties were reported.

Nineveh

A patrol of the Iraqi army found two unidentified bodies in al Sehaji area in west Mosul city. The bodies were shot in the head and the chest.

Salahuddin

Iraqi police in Salahuddin province says that a civilian was killed and three others were injured when an American vehicle hit them while they were putting up an advertisement in Mkeshifah area; 15 miles south of Tikrit city. US military said that an accident occurred on Tuesday morning between a vehicle for the Coalition Forces and a civilian car carrying two Iraqi civilians in the Tikrit area. One Iraqi civilian died at the scene while the second died of his wounds when he was being treated.'

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Bombings Target Police, Kill 10; Minorities Awarded Seats in Provincial Councils

A series of bombings in Baghdad and Baquba on Monday killed 10 persons and wounded over 30, including 10 policemen. The powerful blast in Baquba destroyed 22 automobiles. The NYT spoke of the attacks as a wave of violence These bombings, which continue to occur regularly in Iraq, announced that the Sunni Arab guerrillas still have not been made a political offer by the new order in Baghdad with which they feel they can live.

McClatchy describes the confidence of Obama and the feistiness of McCain on the eve of the election.

The Iraqi parliament finally passed a supplement to the provincial elections law that awarded a quota of seats to religious minorities such as Christians and Yazidis. The minorities were given fewer seats than the United Nations had recommended, in part because Arab nationalists feared they might vote with the Kurds against Arab interests in the north. Some Christian leaders are calling the new law an "insult" because it offers them fewer seats than they feel entitled to.

US sources deny that they have accepted most changes to the draft security agreement proposed by the Iraqi parliament. Iraqi spokesmen said Monday that the US had acquiesced in 3 of 5 major changes, but this assertion was not confirmed in Washington, where officials simply spoke of further meetings this week.

Iraqis are still thirsting for clean water to drink.

Adil E. Shamoo suggests that the US give up plans for the mother of all embassies in Baghdad and instead donate the enormous campus for use as a university.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Monday.

' Baghdad

- A bomb detonated near the house of the under secretary of the oil ministry in Atifiyah neighborhood (north Baghdad). The secretary, Sahib Salman, was injured with one of his guards .

- Two roadside bombs targeted the homicide department near the Tahriyat intersection in Karrada neighborhood (downtown Baghdad).The two IEDs detonated in sequence, one was near a concrete fence and one near a tea vendor. Six people were killed and 20 others were wounded, including ten policemen.

- An adhesive bomb detonated under a white Lumina sedanin Zauna neighborhood (downtown Baghdad). Two people were injured including the driver.

- An adhesive bomb detonated under a Hyundai sedan on Palestine street (east Baghdad). Three people were wounded including the driver.

- A roadside bomb targeted an army check point under the highway bridge in Jamia'a neighborhood. Three people were wounded including one soldier.

- A gunman opened fire using a silencer on a man, killing him instantly in Zafaraniyah neighborhood (east Baghdad).

- A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in Raghiba Khatoon neighborhood (north Baghdad). Six people were wounded including three policemen.

- Police found one dead body in Habibiyah neighborhood in Risfa bank in Baghdad today.

Mosul

- On Sunday night gunmen killed a man and his wife in Baaj (about 20 miles south of Mosul).

- A roadside bomb targeted an Iraqi army patrol in the 17th of July neighborhood in Mosul city. Two people were injured.

- A roadside bomb targeted an Iraqi army patrol in the Intisar neighborhood downtown Mosul city. Two soldiers were killed and two others were wounded.

Diyala

- A roadside bomb targeted the park of the governorate building in Baquba city. Nine people were injured including three policemen.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Deputy Oil Minister Wounded; Iraq Likely to tie down Next President

Guerrillas deployed a bomb to wound Iraq's deputy oil minister on Monday morning.

Steven R. Hurst at AP correctly argues that if there is no Status of Forces Agreement between Iraq and the US by January 1, the resulting military and diplomatic mess could end up consuming the new president. For US troops to operate without an internationally accepted legal framework would expose them to prosecution for their military actions in Iraq.

The looming disaster is one reason that even the grossly incompetent Bush administration is at least considering a Plan B. That is to go back to the UN Security Council for an extension of its mandate for US and allied troops to act in Iraq.

Bob Dreyfuss at The Nation wonders whether, if Obama is elected, he will get US troops out of Iraq on a short timetable.

The Iraqi government, having taken over responsibility for the 100,000 members of the Sunni Arab Awakening Councils or 'Sons of Iraq,' plans to reduce fighters' salaries from $300 a month (what the US had paid them) to only $250 a month. Informed observers predict that many of the Awakening members might well just resign. The big fear is that the councils could turn into anti-government Sunni guerrilla groups if Pm Nuri al-Maliki does no handle them well.

An Awakening tribal leader was killed by a bombing in Diyala Province on Sunday evening.

Al-Hayat writing in Arabic says that a political storm has broken out in Iraq over remarks by Kurdistan leader Massoud Barzani that Kurdistan might offer the US military bases if the Status of Forces Agreement with Iraq as a whole gets stalled.

The Iraqi government has pledged $900 thousand to help Christians displaced by political violence from Mosul.


McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Sunday:

' Baghdad

- A roadside bomb detonated near a bus station in Mashtal neighborhood (east Baghdad). Two people were injured.

- A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in Bab Al-Muatham neighborhood (downtown Baghdad). No casualties were reported, but a police vehicle was damaged.

- A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in Wihda district of Karrada neighborhood (downtown Baghdad). Two people were injured including a policeman.

- A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in Fudhailiyah neighborhood (east Baghdad). One policeman was killed and three others were wounded.

- Police found 2 dead bodies in Baghdad neighborhoods today: one was found in Saidiyah in Karkh bank (south Baghdad) and one was found in Zayuna in Rusafa bank (east Baghdad).

Diyala

- Gunmen attacked a house in Mansouriyah in the town of Moqdadiyah (northeast of Baquba). The gunmen were wearing the Iraqi army uniform. They killed a woman and two of her daughters. Two other daughters were injured.

- A roadside bomb targeted a Sahwa leader in Buhriz (3 miles south of Baquba). The leader was killed with five others who were with him in his car (two women and three children).

Kirkuk

- A roadside bomb detonated in Hawija district (west of Kirkuk). Three people were injured.

- Gunmen kidnapped a girl of about to 14 years in Aysalana village in the Hawija district (west of Kirkuk).

- Gunmen wearing the Iraqi army uniform kidnapped three Kurdish truck drivers near the Sleiman Beck check point (south of Kirkuk).

- An adhesive bomb detonated under a civilian car in Kirkuk city. The driver of the car, who works in an Iraqi military base, was injured.

- Two children were killed and two others were injured by a deserted bomb as it detonated when they were playing nearby in Khadhra neighborhood in downtown Kirkuk city.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iraq to Share Security Plan with Neighbors; Syria may cut Diploatic ties with Iraq

After the Iraqi government receives a response from the US on five changes to the draft security agreement proposed by the cabinet of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, al-Maliki says he will share the text with Iraq's neighbors, so as to reassure them about the continued presence (until 2011) of US troops. Presumably Iran is the neighbor most concerned by the Status of Forces agreement.

Some reports say that Syria is severing diplomatic ties with Iraq because of the US incursion into Syrian territory. The reestablishment of a Syrian embassy in Baghdad after decades of estrangement between the two countries had been hailed in recent weeks as a giant step forward for regional diplomacy.

The flight of Nissim Jabouri, the Sunni Arab governor of Tal Afar, to the US raises the question of whether the Shiite fundamentalist government in Baghdad can incorporate Sunni Arabs into the structures of the new state.

Al-Sharq al-Awsat reports in Arabic that Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani's office is denying that the spritual leader ever ok'd the security agreement as long as parliament signed off on it.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

74% of US Voters Hold Iraq an Important Issue; Security Agreement in Doubt; Syria Closes US Embassy for a Day

Three quarters of American voters say that the Iraq War is a very important or extremely important issue for them. I talk around the country on Iraq and I also find widespread concern about and interest in the subject. A smart television news program that gave renewed attention to Iraq instead of ignoring it would likely be rewarded with a ratings spike.

It is dawning on the Bush administration that it will not likely get a security agreement with the Iraqi government by January 1. In the absence of such an agreement or an extension of the UN Security Council mandate, US troop actions in Iraq could be considered war crimes in international law.

Syria temporarily closed down the US embassy in Damascus ahead of a large demonstration that the government feared might turn violent. Syria has also announced that it will reduce its troop presence on the border with Iraq. That is, Damascus is reducing its policing of the fundamentalist vigilantes who infiltrate Iraq from Syria, as a protest against the US attack on a Syrian village that left 8 dead. Washington officials have said that they had moved against an important smuggler of the fundamentalist vigilantes into Iraq.

An Iraqi opposition parliamentarian has alleged that the Iraqi government maintains 420 secret detention centers where large numbers of prisoners are held with no legal protections.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the Sadr Movement says that 20,000 of its members are being kept in prison with no due process.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Thursday.

' Baghdad

- A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in Fudhailiyah neighborhood (east Baghdad). Five people were injured including two policemen.

- A roadside bomb targeted an American patrol in Tobchi (Al-Salam) neighborhood (northwest Baghdad) .One civilian was killed and five others were wounded. No US casualties reported, police said. The U.S. military said that one person suffered minor injuries and no one was killed.

- Police found one dead body in Ur neighborhood (east Baghdad) today.

Diyala

- Gunmen opened fire on Sahwa members in Swghaa village near Buhriz (3 miles south of Baquba). Three Sahwa members were wounded.

Salahuddin

- A car bomb targeted a police patrol in Abu Ajeel village (3 miles east of Tikrit). One policeman was injured. '

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Iraqis Want Strict Withdrawal Timetable; $6 Bn. Spent on Private Security Guards by Bush

Remember how John McCain insisted to Wolf Blitzer that the security pact being negotiated by Iraq and the Bush administration talks about the withdrawal of US troops as "conditions-based" rather than tied to a strict timetable? That was not true of the draft, which called for US troops out by 2011 but did contain language in a different section that allowed for them to stay under certain conditions. The Iraqis now want that clause removed and the Baghdad government wants an iron-clad guarantee of US troops being out by 2011. The recent US military raid into neighboring Syria may have stiffened Iraqi resolve in this regard. If McCain were elected, which McClatchy argues is still entirely possible, he'd have rocky relations with Iraq if he continued to oppose a timetable for the withdrawal of US troops.

Bush has thrown $6 billion in government money to private security firms operating in Iraq. There have also been Congressional hearings on this issue. Why wouldn't you use GIs to guard State Department personnel?

Some of those private security guards, along with US troops, man border stations where they collect biometric data on military-age Iraqi and Iranian men, which they do not share with the Iraqi government.

Rosa Brooks on the booby traps Bush is leaving behind for the next president.

A Turkish official believes that substantial steps toward peace among Israelis, Palestinians and Syrians would have important spillover effects on Iraq. He implied that you have to get Bush out of the White House before any such positive developments are likely to take place. In the meantime, Mark MacKinnon argues, Syrian leader Bashar al-Asad has decided to turn the other cheek in response to the US raid into Syrian territory, preferring to continue with initiatives to improve relations with Israel and with the West.

Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the spiritual leader of Iraqi Shiites, cautioned on Wednesday that the security agreement between Iraq and the US must not infringe on Iraqi sovereignty.

The US military turned over security duties in Wasit Province to Iraqi forces on Wednesday. All Shiite-majority provinces are now under Iraqi army control. The US continues to have primacy in five provinces including Baghdad itself (also Diyala, Salahuddin, Ninevah and Kirkuk). These provinces continue to see significant social violence and Diyala, Salahuddin and Ninevah have Sunni Arab majorities.

The last of the South Korean troops, which had largely provided health services in Kurdistan, will be out of Iraq in December.

The International Organization for Migration urges that the 2 million Iraqi refugees in nearby neighboring countries be given support, not forced back to Iraq. Most of the refugees have been traumatized, seen a family member kidnapped, been personally threatened, or seen their old neighborhood ethnically cleansed and their property expropriated, so that they are disinclined to return or have no place to return to. Violence remains endemic in some of the places they have fled, including Baghdad.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Wednesday:

' Baghdad

- A roadside bomb targeted a bus of the ministry of education's employees in Ur neighborhood (east Baghdad). Two employees were killed and six others were wounded. - A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol near the Nadia ice cream shop on Palestine Street (east Baghdad). Five people were killed and seventeen others were injured, including the head of the traffic police department in Nahda neighborhood (downtown Baghdad).

Diyala

- Gunmen attacked the house of the Dahalka Sahwa leader in Dahalka village in Balad Ruz, about 27 miles east of Baquba.They killed three people, the father of the Sahwa leader, his daughter and her husband. Fourteen others were wounded, including 7 men and 7 women. - A roadside bomb detonated in the Baquba central market downtown Baquba city. Sixteen people were wounded including one a girl who died later.

Mosul

- A car bomb targeted a police patrol in Yarmouk neighborhood in downtown Mosul city. One policeman was killed.

- A sniper killed an Iraqi soldier in Al-Tanak neighborhood in Mosul city around noon.'

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Iraq Condemns Syria Raid; Seeks Renegotiation of Security Accord

Iraqi government spokesman Ali Dabbagh on Tuesday backed off his earlier support for the US raid into Syria. He said that the Iraqi constitution forbids third parties to use Iraq as a staging ground for attacks on other countries. It is not clear whether Dabbagh was just issuing a pro forma condemnation or whether the Shiite government in Baghdad has gotten new information suggesting that the raid was problematic in some way. Ordinarily the al-Maliki government is delighted to see Sunni fundamentalist guerrillas targeted.

Daniel Levy has further insights on the US raid into Syria.

Aljazeera English provides amateur video of the US raid into Syria, along with Syrian official reaction.



Turkey launched air strikes against Kurdish guerrillas of the PKK based in northern Iraq.

McClatchy reports that the Iraqi cabinet has made some changes in the draft security agreement with the Bush administration. US officials are quoted as saying it is unlikely Washington will accept the changes. The cabinet members in Baghdad are convinced that without these changes, parliament will reject the agreement. One new provision gives Iraq authorities the right to decide whether a US GI accused of wrong-doing was on- or off-duty at the time. (On-duty US soldiers would have immunity from prosecution in Iraqi courts; off-duty ones would not).

The Red Cross warns of a growing humanitarian crisis in Iraq, much of which lacks clean water.

Iraqi trash may, when burned, be releasing toxic elements, harming the public.

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US: Raid Targetted al-Qaeda Facilitator; May Complicate Security Agreement with Iraq

US government sources maintained on Monday that the cross-border raid into Syria that left 8 dead had succeeded in killing "Abu al-Ghadiyah" (Badran al-Mazidi) of Mosul, a member of the fundamentalist vigilante group of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi (originally called "Monotheism and Holy War" but more recently "The Islamic State of Iraq"). Al-Zarqawi was killed in 2006. US intelligence fingered al-Mazidi as a major facilitator for networks of fundamentalist vigilantes who were infiltrating into Iraq from Syria. The administration allegation is that it struck when it did because it got especially good information on al-Mazidi's exact whereabouts.

Apparently Syria declined to move against al-Mazidi, leading to charges by the US military that the ruling Baath Party in Syria was actively harboring al-Qaeda. That charge does not seem plausible to me, since the Alawis at the top of the government are terrified of Sunni fundamentalism and are vulnerable to being overthrown by it. (Sunnis are some 80 percent of Syrians; a folk Shiite group,the Alawis, are at the pinnacle of the government). The US is always over-estimating how powerful and efficient these ramshackle, personalistic regimes in the Middle East are, and attributing things to deliberate plotting that are likely just the result of incompetence or cowardice. Washington also tends to over-estimate the importance of individual leaders such as al-Zarqawi and al-Mazidi. Mostly they are fairly easily replaced. It is not as though they have been through a military academy or anything. When al-Zarqawi was killed, it changed absolutely nothing with regard to violence in Iraq. Others than Mazidi can smuggle North African volunteers into Iraq.

I still think the timing of the raid had to do with the US presidential election, and that it is likely Bush and Cheney want to make sure Iraq stays off the front pages for McCain's sake, since otherwise his talk of "victory" might seem hollow. It is also possible that the White House was offering the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad a carrot in hopes it would smooth the passage of the draft security agreement.

In fact, some Iraqi politicians said that the raid would complicate negotiations on the security agreement. Certainly, Iran's opposition will have stiffened. Kurdish parliamentarian Mahmud Osman charged that the US acted without Iraqi government knowledge. Iraqis are touchy about the idea of the US using Iraq as a launching pad for attacking neighboring countries. Even Ali Dabbagh, spokesman for Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who approved of the American action, said that it would not be allowed after the first of the year.

NYT reports that al-Maliki has been mainly using Arab police and soldiers in his security campaign in Mosul, drawing down Kurdish troops of the Iraqi Army. Kurds had dominated Ninevah Province because Sunni Arabs boycotted the Jan. 2005 provincial elections, but they are a minority. Kurdistan nationalists wish to annex some areas of Ninevah to the Kurdistan Regional Government. There is growing tension between Arabs and Kurds in the north, reflected in the increasingly difficult relations between al-Maliki and Kurdistan president Massoud Barzani.

The oil city of Kirkuk is another arena of Kurdish-Arab competition and potential violence.

Al-Sharq al-Awsat reports in Arabic that the Shiite grand ayatollahs in the holy city of Najaf are signalling to Iraqis that they may vote for whatever party they choose, religious or secular, so long as they judge it competent in solving the country's problems. In past elections the top Shiite clerics had urged voters to cast their ballots for the United Iraqi Alliance, a coalition of Shiite fundamentalist parties. That coalition seems to be breaking up, and Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani has been deeply disappointed in its record in power. Sistani had all along been opposed to the Iranian model of clerical rule, but he had in the past favored the Iraqi religious Right. If al-Sharq al-Awsat is accurately reporting his views, this move toward pragmatism and willingness to see lay Shiites vote for secular parties marks a further evolution of his thought.

The US-built wastewater plant in Falluja that has been a costly failure, to the tune of $100 mn. and sewage in the streets, according to LAT.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Monday:

' Baghdad

- An American squad raided the New Baghdad and Baladiyat neighborhoods, Iraqi police said, with no more details. The coalition reply was, “Coalition forces killed five criminals after a small arms fire attack in Baghdad's New Baghdad security district, Oct. 27. At about 1:20 a.m., Multi-National Division - Baghdad Soldiers were attacked with small-arms fire at a joint security station. The Soldiers were able to identify those responsible for the attack and returned fire. A total of five attackers were killed with no U.S.casualties.

-A roadside bomb detonated in Ameen neighborhood (east Baghdad). Three people were killed and five others were injured. Also two civilian cars were damaged.

- Around noon a roadside bomb detonated near the Kindi hospital intersection (northeast Baghdad). Two people were wounded.

- An adhesive bomb detonated under a civilian car at Khilani intersection (downtown Baghdad). Two people were killed and seven others were wounded.

- Police found one dead body in Mashtal neighborhood in east Baghdad today.

Mosul

- Gunmen killed a civilian near the jewelry shops in downtown Mosul.

- Gunmen opened fire on an Iraqi army patrol in Al-Jazair neighborhood (downtown Mosul). Two soldiers were wounded.

- A suicide car bomber targeted an Iraqi police patrol in Borsa neighborhood in Mosul. One policeman was killed and two others were wounded.

Dohuk

- Turkish artillery bombed some villages in the northeast of Dohuk in Kurdistan region before noon, Peshmerga sources, the security forces in the area, said. Also they said that the Turkish had bombed the same area last night, too. No casualties or damages were reported.'

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Helman: US has all but Committed to Leaving Iraq

Ambassador Gerald B. Helman writes:

Absent the unexpected, it is unlikely that a security agreement in the form of a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) between Iraq and the US will be in place before our Presidential elections and almost as unlikely before the end of the year when the present UN Security Council mandate runs out. That mandate, in the form of a resolution renewed annually, provides the terms and conditions under which the US has been able to occupy and seek to pacify and rebuild Iraq politically. In practice, it has given the US a free hand as the occupying power. To that extent, it has severely limited Iraq’s sovereignty and has legitimized its maintenance by the US in a tutelary status. The negotiations to replace the UN mandate with a type of SOFA has been underway for much of this year and from what little is known of its contents the US has agreed to initiate military operations only with Iraqi assent; to withdraw its forces from Iraq’s cities by June 2009 and from Iraq entirely by the end of 2011.

While language is included to suggest that a complete withdrawal might be conditions-based by mutual agreement, it seems to be a sop given by the Maliki government to the Bush administration. Even with such seemingly anodyne conditionality, the provision has proven to be unacceptable to many in Iraq’s parliament. Similarly unacceptable to Iraqi politicians seems to be the provisions regarding legal jurisdiction over offences committed by US troops, which would place them under US jurisdiction while on base or on authorized military operations off-base. With senior US officials indicating that the US limit has been reached on further concessions, an impasse seems now to exist.

If the news reports on the draft SOFA’s main provisions are generally accurate, it is hard to understand what the fight is all about. The US appears to have conceded on all major issues and is left with little alternative to withdrawal:

--after January 1, the US will undertake military operations only with Iraqi consent;

--all US non-military contract employees will be subject to Iraqi law. (The US military operation has become so dependent on contract employees that it’s hard to understand how the US could function if US contract employees are pulled out by their employers because of their exposure to arrest by a legal system they do not understand and understandably fear.)

--all Iraqis apprehended by US military must be turned over to Iraq authorities.

--by June 2009, all US military must evacuate the cities and return to fixed bases, from which they can operate only with Iraq’s permission. The practical effect of this provision is that whatever the merits of General Petreus’s strategy of deploying forces to cities and neighborhoods to protect the population and to sponsor civil affairs and local self-help activities, it will be history. Thus the surge will also be no more, together with the many soldiers and special forces needed to support it..

--By the end of 2011, all US combat forces will be withdrawn unless the two sides agree that circumstances require them to stay.

We know little about the precise language of the draft or anything regarding what must be an extensive agreement covering issues such as jurisdiction over air space; limits on operations; import-export of material ranging from foodstuffs to sophisticated weaponry; designation and inventorying of current bases including elaborate airbases and their eventual disposition (including buildings and equipment) following drawdown and departure; and much more. Further, are there provisions for residual forces, for whatever purpose, authorization for ongoing training and military assistance programs, civil construction and technical assistance programs, and the like?

Taking all into account, and accepting the reality that present efforts to replace the Security Council resolution with a bilateral SOFA is badly stalled and may abort, how should the US and Iraq proceed? From the US standpoint, some organic instrument is needed to legitimize and help manage our continuing activities in Iraq and more especially in the context of our departure over the next few years. From the standpoint of Iraq, the restoration of its sovereignty would be critical not only to its international standing but in bringing about the kind of internal political accommodation so desperately wanting. Popular perception of tutelage and occupation and dependency helps make Iraq a failed state. The restoration of sovereignty in fact as well as theory—essentially, the recognition of Iraq’s adulthood--may well be central to encouraging the kind of national political accommodation the US says it has been seeking.

With this seeming stalemate, any way forward needs to take into account a number of practical realities central to both countries:

--The US will shortly be electing a new President who will be responsible to the American public for the US position in the Middle East and the implementation of a SOFA in that context.

--Similarly, Iraq will be holding critical regional elections early next year which could well significantly alter the political balance within the country, bring new constituencies and new political actors on the scene and perhaps result in a new government. It is that government which should be responsible for implementation of the SOFA and associated withdrawal, indeed, for the future direction of Iraq.

--Gaining time needed to reach agreement should not be a problem. If Iraq, with Arab support, asks for an extension of the current mandate for six months, the Security Council will comply. The Russians, for example, will be only too happy to see the US army bogged down in Iraq for as long as possible.

With a continuing Security Council resolution providing legitimacy, the US and Iraq can proceed to implement the 99% of the SOFA that appears to be agreed upon and which in any event would be compatible with a 2011 (or 2010) withdrawal, with or without conditionality. The matter of jurisdiction over criminal behavior by US troops off base and off duty can perhaps be dealt with by third-part arbitration by the UN. The new US and Iraqi governments can then limit the SOFA to housekeeping matters and concentrate on fundamentally political matters that don’t belong in a SOFA anyway, looking toward a future US-Iraqi relationship. These might include:

--a formal termination of hostilities between the two countries, whether by treaty or executive agreement, supported by a Congressional Joint Resolution that terminates the authorization to conduct hostilities adopted by Congress in 2003. This might be accompanied by a US declaration formally terminating the occupation regime. Nothing would more authoritatively reestablish Iraqi de jure sovereignty as well as its psychological sovereignty and sense of nationhood. (The bestowal of sovereignty several years ago by Jerry Bremer amounted to a formal, but ineffective gesture, given the reality of Iraq.)

--With a now sovereign Iraq, the two governments can negotiate agreements defining their future political and military relations. The latter might include cooperation in combating terrorism, whether by using US forces stationed in Iraq or available over-the horizon; US overflight and landing rights; ongoing military assistance programs involving training and weapons sales. Special provision might be needed for the protection of the US diplomatic establishment by a reduction in size and the according of diplomatic immunity for a protection force assigned to the Embassy and a generous periphery thereof.

A new US Administration might also bear in mind that the successful termination of the war in Iraq could well contribute to the opening of discussions with Iran, leading to the normalization of relations.

Helman "was United States Ambassador to the European Office of the United Nations from 1979 through 1981."

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Obama and McCain on Iraq

Although the US public trusts Sen. Barack Obama to handle the economy far more than it does Sen. John McCain, the two are viewed as equally able with regard to handling Iraq and the 'war on terrorism.' Of course, given that the public in earlier years had tended to give the edge to Republicans on security issues, that Obama has drawn even on these questions is actually a big advance.

Aljazeera English looks at the differences between Obama and McCain on Iraq.

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Sunni Party Cuts off US in Iraq;

The Iraqi Islamic Party, led by Iraqi Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi, said it was suspending further high-level contact with the United States on Saturday. The Sunni fundamentalist group is angry about a raid in Fallujah in which US troops killed a member of the IIP. The US military contends that the man opened fire on the American soldiers and that they found weapons and weapon-making materiel in his house, saying that he was a leader of Hamas al-Iraq, an offshoot of the 1920 Revolution Brigades. The IIP is thought by some to be the civilian wing of this guerrilla group. The IIP seems especially angry that its political rivals in the Awakening Council movement, who will contest provincial elections in late January, have informed to the Americans on IIP operatives. The IIP won al-Anbar Province in 2005 with only 2% of the electorate casting ballots, but the contest in January will be more heated. The IIP maintains that the US military is abetting the Awakening Councils in taking al-Anbar.

The Iraqi Islamic Party also opposes the draft security agreement that was negotiated between PM Nuri al-Maliki's office and the Iraqi government. The IIP-sponsored "Baghdad Satellite Channel" carried a sermon on Friday by pro-IIP cleric Hashim al-Ta'i in which he said (Open Source Center translation),

'"If we go back in memory to the early 1990s when Iraq was the target of the aircraft of America and the states that supported it and when Baghdad and the major Iraqi cities in particular and all other targets in Iraq in general were the target of these aircraft, and if we go back in memory to those difficult days in the history of Iraq, we will find that America has destroyed all infrastructures and killed and displaced hundreds of thousands of people.Furthermore, on the pretext of the former regime, on the pretext of this regime's alliance with Al-Qa'ida, and on the pretext of the weapons of mass destruction, it placed Iraq and the Iraqis under a stifling, unjust, and tough siege to the point where the Iraqis ate fodder. Since that date, Iraqi brain drain has been continuing and the Iraqis have continued to leave Iraq."

He adds: "America's policy toward Iraq led to the death of more than 2 million children during the time of the siege. The war has also created strange kinds of cancer and deformed births." He says: "This is the bitter harvest America madeus reap in our wounded country. Today, an agreement is offered to the Iraqis.So, what will the Iraqis say? Through my contacts with the people and their letters and recommendations, and based on what I hear, there is a unanimous Iraqi voice which says: No to an agreement that consolidates the occupation and prolongs its life; no to an agreement that consolidates sectarianism and racism and fragments the country into groups and cantons; no to an agreement that mortgages the country and its resources for many decades; no to an agreement that does not include a timetable for the withdrawal of the occupiers from our land and that seeks to build military bases that would perhaps stay for tens of years in Iraq to threaten Iraq and the neighboring states together; and no to an agreement, which does not include equal opportunities." '

Ta'i's sentiments appear to be widespread in Iraq, right down to the exaggerated estimate (it is usually put at 500,000, not 2 million) for the number of Iraqi children that were killed by US and UN sanctions (the interdiction of chlorine made it impossible to do water purification, which in turn caused infant and toddler deaths from gastrointestinal diseases and consequent dehydration). Yep, the Neocons called that one, about Iraqi gratitude to the US, right on the money, they did.

On the other hand, many secular-minded Sunni Arab Iraqis (and they are still the majority) are said to approve of the security pact between the US and Iraq, on the grounds that it will limit Iranian dominance of Iraq. The "al-Arab" newspaper of Qatar reported on Friday that (Open Source Center translation):

'The latest poll Al-Arab carried out about the Iraqi-US security agreement included 270 Sunni Iraqis in the cities of Al-Fallujah, Al-Ramadi, and Baghdad. Eighty percent of these Iraqis suggested that that the security agreement will end the Iranian influence or at least limit it, and that Iraq will be able to return to the Arab ranks again without Iranian control. They also insisted that the agreement with the United States will have limited damage, unlike the Iranian influence. Therefore, they support the agreement and work to make it successful.

Of the participants, 4 percent checked the "We do not know whether it is good or bad for Iraq" box. Some see that the advantages or disadvantages of the agreement are still unknown due to the vague agreement articles and for not announcing the agreement clearly so far. They noted that some media sources mentioned that there are points which will remain secret and unannounced in that agreement.

Sixteen percent of the participants rejected the agreement referring to the Holy Koranic verse: "O ye who believe! Take not the Jews and the Christians for your friends and protectors" (Partial Koranic verse; Al-Ma'idah, 5:51). Despite that the majority of those who expressed their rejection are affiliated to religious parties, particularly the Salafist sect; they find their votes getting lost and unheard among Iraqi Sunnis due to what they called the advantages of the agreement for not leaving Iraq to a fanatic Shiite authority or an Iranian remote or close control.

Shaykh Ahmad al-Hadithi, a leading figure of the Iraqi Islamic Party, told Al-Arab that the percentage was not surprising at all because Sunnis, as well as Christians, and the sons of the other religions fear the current Iranian influence in Iraq.

Dr Abd-al-Wahhab Salim, from the Desert Research Center in Al-Anbar, said that Sunni Iraqis desire a secular system, not religious. They see that the United States invaded them militarily, but the Iranian invasion was ideological, social, and religious, which for their country is more dangerous and horrible than the military invasion.'

On another front, Kazakhstan is withdrawing its troops from Iraq. John C. K. Daly argues that Astana was in part attempting to please Russia while not damaging its new ties to NATO. Thus, Kazakhstan maintained that its troops had done their duty and were now going home.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Saturday:

' Baghdad

- Around 8 p.m. a roadside bomb targeted an Iraqi army vehicle in Al Shaab neighborhood killing one civilian man was passing by the site and injured four Iraqi army soldiers.

- Around noon, gunmen from Mahdi army militia clashed with Iraqi national police soldiers in Al Shaab neighborhood. The clash lasted more than an hour. One civilian was killed and five others were injured. . .

- Around 4 p.m. a roadside bomb targeted an Iraqi army vehicle in Palestine St. killing two soldiers and injuring three others.

- Iraqi police found two dead bodies throughout Baghdad, one in Husseiniyah, one in Dura.

Nineveh

- Gunmen killed two policemen while they were off duty in Al Sinaa area in Mosul.'

Reuters adds:

' . . . BAGHDAD - A bomb stuck to a vehicle carrying an Iraqi army brigadier general killed the driver and wounded the general and a civilian in the central Karrada district, police said . . .

* KIRKUK - A body of a women was found in the southwestern industrial district of the city of Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

* JURF AL-SAKHER - One man was wounded when a speeding car opened fire on a checkpoint of U.S.-backed patrols in Jurf al-Sakher, 40 km (25 miles) south of Baghdad, police said.

NEAR KIRKUK - Iraqi police found the body of a man with signs of torture just south of Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad, police said. . .

MOSUL - A roadside bomb wounded two women when it struck an Iraqi army vehicle in eastern Mosul, north of Baghdad, police said.

MOSUL - Gunmen killed a civilian in a drive-by shooting in eastern Mosul, north of Baghdad, police said.

NEAR KUT - Iraqi police arrested one gunman and wounded another in clashes on Friday just south of Kut, 150 km (95 miles) southeast of Baghdad, Police Major Aziz Latif said.

NEAR KUT - Police said they found a dead body inside an abandoned house just south of Kut on Friday. The dead individual appeared to have been tortured and shot. . .

FALLUJA - Gunmen killed an imam of a mosque and another man in a drive-by shooting northeast of Falluja, police said. . .

FALLUJA - Iraqi soldiers killed a suspected militant and arrested another one, believed to be responsible for training insurgents in producing and placing roadside bombs, on Friday in Falluja, 50 km (30 miles) west of Baghdad, the U.S. military said.'

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Al-Maliki Will Not Sign Security Agreement

McClatchy reports that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has reneged on the security agreement that his office negotiated with the Bush administration, and now says he will not sign it and will not submit it to parliament. Instead, it is likely that Iraq will go back to the United Nations Security Council for a further mandate of six months to a year for the multi-national forces.


Aljazeera English reports on the security pact.



Al-Sharq al-Awsat reports in Arabic that the Christian representative in parliament is acusing a unit of the Iraq army,which has significant numbers of Kurds, of being behind attack on Christians in Mosul that have forced thousands of Christians to flee instability.

Mark MacKinnon profiles the American University in Iraq (Sulaymaniya),

Despite all the hype about it being calm now, Iraq faces significant violence:

'Last month, 98 Iraqi policemen were killed. On about two days out of every three, a bomb killed two or more people. Over all, those bombings killed 164 people and wounded 366 others. These and other attacks killed 500 Iraqi civilians, about 17 a day. '

While the Bush administration was using Abu Nidal's presence in Baghdad to argue that the Baath government was dirty with terrorists, in fact the CIA was running him as an agent.

The headline says it all: "Mentally Unstable Soldiers Redoplyed to Iraq."
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13 Killed, 24 Wounded in Attack on Minister; More Christians Flee Mosul Sadrist Parliamentarians on Strike against Security Agreement

A car bomber attacked a convoy he thought was conveying the Iraqi labor minister, Mahmoud al Radhi on Thursday, killing 13 persons and wounding 24, according to McClatchy. Al Radhi is a member of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, headed by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, a fundamentalist Shiite party close to the ayatollahs in Tehran. Four months ago a similar attempt was made on the life of the minister of electricity, Karim Wahid, an independent member of the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance. Earlier this month Sadrist member of parliament Salih al-`Ukayli was killed by a roadside bomb in Sadr City.

The most likely suspect in a bombing like that is a Sunni Arab guerrilla cell, either Baathist or fundamentalist vigilante. The bombing shows that while the monthly death totals for civilians have fallen, Iraq is still a very violent place.

In Mosul, there has been further violence against Christians; thousands of Christians have fled the city to nearby Christian villages as a result of attacks on them in this northern, largely Sunni Arab metropolis of 1.7 million.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the Sadr Movement in Parliament has begun a boycott of proceedings to protest the draft security agreement negotiated by the government of PM Nuri al-Maliki. Al-Hayat also chronicles the failure of the visit to Iran of Iraqi Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani, who was seeking to reassure his Iranian colleagues about the status of forces agreement. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Speaker of the House Ali Larijani, and Expediency Council head Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani all denounced the proposed agreement as a humiliation for Iraq and an infringement against it sovereignty. Larijani compared it to the agreement between the Shah of Iran and the US over troops and bases in Iran, which restricted GIs from being tried in Iranian courts. Resentments over immunity for US troops in Iran was one impetus for the 1979 Iranian Revolution.

WaPo visits Sadr City and finds a) that the Mahdi Army is still mosty in charge there and b) they are increasingly angry with the government and can barely prevent locals from attacking government forces. The only thing wrong with this perceptive (and courageous) piece is that it does not mention the ethnic cleansing of the Sunnis of West Baghdad as a major factor in the decline of civilian deaths.

Despite decreased monthly deaths, Iraqis are haunted by fear and distrust, making it difficult for shopkeepers to flourish, according to Tina Susman.

Iraqi forces took over security duties in the southern, Shiite province of Hilla. The northern reaches of this province had been Sunni Arab, but it may be that they, like so many Sunni Arabs in Baghdad, have been ethnically cleansed.

Sociologist Michael Schwartz surveys the wreckage that is Iraq. Shwartz is author of "War without End: The Iraq War in Context, just out.

The Iraq Oil Report paint just as dismal a picture.

A lot of Iraqi children have been out of school so long that it will be difficult for them to re-enter the educational system. They are a growing Lost Generation.

On the political front, US commanders are hopeful that provincial elections in Iraq will bring to power more popular, representative, and capable provincial officials, hastening the ability of the US military to withdraw from al-Anbar province.

Ahem. I said in April, 2007:

' Talks require a negotiating partner. The first step in Iraq must therefore be holding provincial elections. In the first and only such elections, held in January 2005, the Sunni Arab parties declined to participate. Provincial governments in Sunni-majority provinces are thus uniformly unrepresentative, and sometimes in the hands of fundamentalist Shiites, as in Diyala. A newly elected provincial Sunni Arab political class could stand in for the guerrilla groups in talks, just as Sinn Fein, the political wing of the Irish Republican Army, did in Northern Ireland.'

Iraq's irrigation systems are in a dreadful state of disrepair, and it has been hit with a severe drought: "Ministry figures provided to Reuters on Thursday showed that Iraq expects to import 2.8 million tonnes of wheat in 2008/09, up 40 percent from the previous year. Wheat production is expected to drop 27 percent to 1.6 million tonnes."
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Dabbagh Rejects Bush Pressure Tactics on Iraq; Al-Haeri Declares Security Agreement Illicit; Irrelevancy of Al-Qaeda on McCain

Iraqi government spokesman Ali Dabbagh reacted sharply on Wednesday to comments of US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen last Tuesday that Iraqis did not have much time to pass the agreement and might not understand the full consequences of failure to do so. Dabbagh said, "It is not correct to force Iraqis into making a choice and it is not appropriate to talk with the Iraqis in this way."

Spence Ackerman points out that McCain is attempting to spin the draft security agreement as "conditions based," but that it is not in fact. Rather the agreement stipulates US troops out by 2011 barring major unforeseen factors. I would add that not only is the agreement not very conditions based, but precisely because it does have some of that language it is not viable in Iraq, where most parliamentarians want to tinker with it to make sure the withdrawal deadline is absolute rather than conditioned on the security situation.

One way or another, As of Jan. 1, US troops will not be able to act at will in Iraq but rather will have to get assent from Iraqi authorities for campaigns.

Grand Ayatollah Kadhim al-Haeri issued a formal religious ruling or fatwa denouncing the proposed security pact between the Iraqi government and the US as humiliating and infringing Iraqi national sovereignty. (The tradition of Muslim clerical thinking is hostile to the political subordination of Muslims to non-Muslims.)

Al-Haeri tends to be followed by members of the Sadr Movement, the leader of which is Sayyid Muqtada al-Sadr, who is too junior to issue fatwas. Al-Haeri is sometimes called Iraq's "fifth Grand Ayatollah," and is a rival to Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani of Najaf. Al-Haeri declines to live in Iraq under US occupation, and

The Arabic text of al-Haeri's statement says:

"We have learned of the pressures exerted by the Occupation forces on the Iraqi government for the purpose of obtaining its assent to a humiliating agreement termed "a long term security agreement," which leads to Iraq's loss of its national sovereignty, and its acceptance of humiliation and abasement."

He added, "Whoso aids the Occupiers in achieving what they desire, God shall not forgive his sins, nor will the oppressed Iraqi nation go easy on him, norwill the blessed centers of Islamic learning nor any Muslim with a conscience who believes in the Judgment Day."

As for the pro-al-Qaeda internet bulletin board that urged support for McCain because he is hotheaded and would keep large US troop contingents in Iraq and Afghanistan, I would not pay much attention to it. It was a posting from one guy, so we don't know if the leadership feels this way. But even if he were not obscure, we should not let al-Qaeda play mind games with American voters. Al-Qaeda hates and wants to kill both Democrats and Republicans; it hates America in general. We don't even know why this posting to the internet supports McCain; for all we know they are trying to help him, expecting blow back from the public. The important thing is what McCain's practical plans are, not some 'gotcha' post from some scruffy fundamentalist vigilante on the internet.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Wednesday:

'Baghdad

- An adhesive bomb detonated under a civilian car in Mansour neighborhood (west Baghdad). Two people were killed.

- An adhesive bomb detonated under the head of the Diwaniyah Facility Protection Service’s car, Colonel Mohammed Abu Atra, in Nidhal Street in downtown Baghdad. The colonel was injured with two of his guards.

- An adhesive bomb detonated under an ambulance car in Andalus intersection in central Baghdad. One person was killed and three others were wounded.

- An adhesive bomb detonated under a civilian car in Zafaraniyah neighborhood (east Baghdad). One person was injured.

- Police found one dead body in Saidiyah neighborhood (southwest Baghdad).

Mosul

- A car bomb detonated in Thawra neighborhood in Mosul city. Four people were killed and four others injured.

Diyala

- A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in Balad Ruz (east of Baquba). One policeman was killed.

Kirkuk

- People found a head cut off its body in the Imam Hussein neighborhood in Tuz Khurmatu (south of Kirkuk), police said. The dead man was identified by police as a Turkman person who was kidnapped about a month ago from Inkija village of Tuz Khurmatu.

Anbar

- A mass grave of 34 dead bodies was found in Al-Qa’im town (about 250 miles west of Baghdad) near the Syrian border. A resident from the town while digging found four dead bodies and then he told police and the local council. They dug and found the mass grave of 34 bodies of civilians who were killed by the Al-Qaida organization.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iraq Moves Closer to Obama-Type Plan for early US Withdrawal; Cabinet rejects Security Agreement

The debate between Senators John McCain and Barack Obama about a timetable for withdrawal of US troops from Iraq may have just been overtaken by events. Without a bilateral agreement on the rules governing US military actions in Iraq, US soldiers and officers would become liable to prosecution for acts committed in the course of battle.

It is highly unlikely that any security agreement will be passed by parliament by January 1st, when the UN mandate for multinational troops in Iraq runs out, given that the Iraqi cabinet has now called for substantial revisions in the draft agreement.

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said on Tuesday that failure to get a bilateral treaty passed or at least a UN Security Council resolution-- passed could have dire implication for US troops.

In fact, one possible outcome, though unlikely, is a quick US withdrawal.

McCain opposes a withdrawal timeline of the sort that Bush has just agreed to. McCain said last summer:

“Prime Minister Malki . . . I am confident that he will act, as the president and foreign minister have both told me in the last several days, that it [US troop withdrawal] will be directly related to the situation on the ground, just as they have always said. And since we are succeeding and then I am convinced, as I have said before, we can withdraw and withdraw with honor, not according to a set timetable.'

But the Iraqis insisted on a timetable, initially 2010 but Bush argued that was too close to the Obama plan and got it postponed to 2011.

One of McCain's main talking points has been left behind in the dust.

Obama, in contrast, welcomed the al-Maliki government's called for awithdrawal timetable:

The good news is that Iraq’s leaders want to take responsibility for their country by negotiating a timetable for the removal of American troops. Meanwhile, Lt. Gen. James Dubik, the American officer in charge of training Iraq’s security forces, estimates that the Iraqi Army and police will be ready to assume responsibility for security in 2009.

Only by redeploying our troops can we press the Iraqis to reach comprehensive political accommodation and achieve a successful transition to Iraqis’ taking responsibility for the security and stability of their country. Instead of seizing the moment and encouraging Iraqis to step up, the Bush administration and Senator McCain are refusing to embrace this transition — despite their previous commitments to respect the will of Iraq’s sovereign government. They call any timetable for the removal of American troops “surrender,” even though we would be turning Iraq over to a sovereign Iraqi government.

But this is not a strategy for success — it is a strategy for staying that runs contrary to the will of the Iraqi people, the American people and the security interests of the United States. That is why, on my first day in office, I would give the military a new mission: ending this war.'

The Iraqi cabinet shot down the draft security agreement negotiated by the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and the Bush administration, insisting that several of its paragraphs need a change of wording. Bush administration officials say that they are unwilling to engage in yet another round of negotiations. Without cabinet approval, the draft probably would not even be submitted to parliament, much less passed by it. Some of the objections, as I reported yesterday, come from the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, which is al-Maliki's chief political partner, the support of which he would need to get the draft through parliament. ISCI is close to Tehran, which objects to the agreement.

Even al-Maliki seemed lukewarm about the draft his office had negotiated, complaining that the US government 'takes away with one hand what it gave with the other.'

The Arabic text of the agreement is here.

The Bush administration came to al-Maliki last spring with a request for a Status of Forces Agreement specifying the rules for US troops operating in the country. Bush asked for hundreds of bases, no timetable for withdrawal, and complete legal immunity for both US contractors and for all military personnel.

Bush did not get it, just as he did not get success in so many other fields, including his "war on terror" (via Tomdispatch).

By the time a draft agreement was circulated last week (text courtesy Raed Jarrar), the US military had found itself confined to bases by next June and constrained to leave by 2011; civilian contractors were open to prosecution in Iraqi courts; and off-duty US troops who commit crimes might also find themselves before a qadi or Muslim court judge. There was no mention of long-term bases.

Behind the scenes, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani mobilized opposition to the original Bush demands, as an infringement on Iraqi national sovereignty.

In all likelihood, Iraq will go to the UN Security Council for a one-year renewal of the Multinational Forces Mandate. But the Iraqi politicians and people are voting, by their reluctance to acquiesce in the Bush/ al-Maliki plan for a SOFA, for something (with regard to the timetable for withdrawal) much closer to Obama's plan.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

When did McCain become a Neocon? Shiite MPs demand SOFA Renegotiation

Jonathan Landay carefully traces John McCain's transformation from pragmatist to Neoconservative warmonger, which took place while Bush was still just a Texas politician. He rather amusingly quotes Max Boot claiming that McCain is not a warmonger. I mean, in 2003 Boot acknowledged that the US killed thousands of Filipino civilians in the early 20th century in order to colonize the Philippines, and urged that if necessary the Bush administration kill just as many Iraqis. I asked at the time if people could be tried for thought-war-crimes. So asking Boot if someone is a warmonger is rich.

McClatchy argues that while most political endorsements are not very influential, Powell's endorsement of Obama is likely to have a significant impact.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, led by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, has published a detailed critique of the draft security agreement proposed by the government of Nuri al-Maliki with the United States. One unnamed ISCI parliamentarian called the agreement "dead on arrival." If al-Maliki cannot get the support for it of ISCI, his chief partner in parliament, then the agreement cannot be passed. Two many other political movements, including most Sunnis and Sadrists, oppose it for it to succeed in the absence of ISCI support. ISCI wants to renegotiate key points, but it is unlikely that the the Bush administration has the patience to do so.

Iran opposes the draft agreement, and ISCI is very close to the ayatollahs in Tehran.

The agreement likely cannot pass parliament. If it does pass, it is unlikely to pass by January 1, when the old UN mandate for the Multi-National Forces in Iraq runs out. Without such a mandate or a bilateral agreement, US troops in Iraq could be tried for war crimes even for ordinary military operations. If Iraq did go back to the UN for an extension of its mandate, it turns out that Russia would support an extension. Some observers, including Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, had wondered whether the US reaction to the Georgia police action had so soured Russia on Washington that Moscow would play spoiler on the UNSC with regard to Iraq. Not so, apparently.

Scott Peterson on the US mediation between Kurds and Arabs at Khanaqin, where there have been disputes between the Kurds and the al-Maliki government.

The Sunni insurgency is still active in al-Anbar province.

The LAT thinks falling oil prices may force Iraqis to make fruitful compromises, as between Arabs and Kurds over Kirkuk.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Monday:

' Baghdad

- A roadside bomb detonated in Fudhailiyah neighborhood (east Baghdad). One person was killed and seven others were wounded. - A roadside bomb detonated in Al-Rubayee street in Zayuna neighborhood. Two people were injured.

- A roadside bomb detonated on Palestine Street (east Baghdad) targeting a police patrol. Four people were injured including one policeman.

- One dead body was found today in Al-Ghadeer in the New Baghdad neighborhood in eastern Baghdad.

Diyala

- Police found one dead body in Buhriz (south Baquba).

- Police arrested three Sahwa members in Mustafa neighborhood in Baquba, according to arrest warrants

- Police killed a civilian by mistake when they raided Muqdadiyah town (north east of Baquba) at noon.

- Police killed three gunmen in Mandli town (east of Baquba) in clashes took place at the town.

- Iraqi army killed two Qaeda members, one was a leader, in Al-Khulis village in Buhriz(south of Baquba).

- A roadside bomb targeted a civilian contractor in Khanaqeen which was planted near his house. The contractor was killed at once.

Mosul

- Gunmen assassinated a member of the Kurdistan Democratic party (KDP) in Sahin Al-Sham in Mosul.

- A sniper killed a policeman in Borsa neighborhood in Mosul when he stopped near one of the check points in the area.

- A roadside bomb targeted a civilian car in Dhibat neighborhood in Mosul city. Six people were injured from one family. . .'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.