Zawahiri: Iraq Main field of Jihad Attacks Iran, Muqtada, Nasrallah

The USG Open Source Center summarizes the main points in the new video released by al-Qaeda's number 2 man, Ayman al-Zawahiri. Zawahiri identifies Iraq as the primary field for jihad or holy war and defends the Islamic State of Iraq (radical Sunni Muslims in Iraq) from charges of having been especially vindictive and destructive. Zawahiri also again slams the the Shiites. He sees Iran as hypocritical and actually tacitly cooperating with the US. He dismisses Muqtada al-Sadr as an Iranian cat's paw. He attacks Hasan Nasrallah of Lebanon's Hizbullah. This sectarian approach is typical of the Salafi Jihadis' failures in Iraq, where only a pan-Islamic movement against US occupation could have had a chance of succeeding. Nasrallah is still very popular in the Arab world because his Hizbullah stood up to Israel's attack on Lebanon in summer of 2006, and al-Zawahiri clearly sees Nasrallah as a rival to himself. But Nasrallah has an extensive social welfare program and deputies in the Lebanese parliament, and leads a real if small political movement in a compact territory. Zawahiri is a fugitive whose organization is shadowy and tenuous and on the run. These are the rantings of a loser. The one worrisome thing in the video Zawhiri's conviction that the US presence in Iraq is keeping al-Qaeda alive as a cause, which may well be correct. A whole new generation of jihadis with key terrorism skills is being created by their struggle against what they see as US occupation. That US interests are held harmless from this development in the long run seems unlikely. Zawahiri also calls on the Pakistani military to make a coup against Pervez Musharraf, apparently in hopes that officers of a radical Muslim bent will come to power. (This development is highly unlikely, since Musharraf has by now purged a lot of those elements from the officer corps.)

'Jihadist Website Releases New Al-Zawahiri Interview. . .
Jihadist Websites -- OSC Summary
Monday, December 17, 2007 . . .

Terrorism: Jihadist Website Posts Interview With Al-Qai'da's Ayman al-Zawahiri Entitled "A Review of Events"

On 16 December, a jihadist website posts links to a 98-minute interview with Ayman al-Zawahiri, Al-Qa'ida's second-in-command, entitled "A Review of Events." During the interview, Al-Zawahiri addresses the ongoing developments in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Egypt, and the Palestinian territories, as well as a possible US attack on Iran.

Ayman al-Zawahiri

Asked on "the most serious transformations" in the world today, he says: "The most significant and serious transformations, in my view, are the emergence of the jihadist vanguard of the Islamic Nation as a power that has imposed itself as a reality. This is so because of the increasing jihadist awakening that is sweeping across the Islamic World in rejection of humiliation, the philosophy of surrender, and the culture of defeat; and in defense of the pride of the Islamic Nation. This jihadist vanguard is gaining increasing ground. One can even say that, thank God, they are grouping as one unit.

Commenting if the integration of a number of Islamic groups into Qa'idat al-Jihad Group, is an example of this unity, he says: "There is no doubt about that, especially if you add to this the key role which the fighter group in Libya is undertaking in the field of Da'wah (invitation to the path of God) and the genuine truth -- which is embodied in taking pride in God only and refusing to submit to any one else. Add to that their role in defending the Islamic Nation through sacrificing their souls and money. It is not only in Libya. One can hardly see a spot, particularly when Jihad is involved, where their blessed --and, God willing, acceptable, efforts cannot be seen."

Asked about "the most important field where the jihadist vanguard is struggling against the enemies of Islam," he says: "Iraq is, definitely, the most important field."

Asked to comment on "the state of jihad in Iraq today," he says: "In general, the state of jihad in Iraq is good, thank God. Of course, there are pains that one cannot avoid when on jihad. The most recent reports that arrived from Iraq indicate that the mujahidin are gaining further strength, while the Americans are in a deteriorating situation. These reports come despite their intense efforts to falsify and distort things. Let us just remember the decisions of the British to escape."

Asked on the US reports on the security improvement in Iraq in general and Al-Anbar Governorate in particular, he says: "All this is nothing but a fruitless attempt to cover the US failure in Iraq. The clearest proof is the fact that Petraeus said, in his Congress report, that he might be able to reduce the number of his troops to 100,000 by next summer. But the report stresses that the Iraqi troops are not ready yet and that an immediate withdrawal of the US troops would lead to the collapse of the Iraqi troops. All these statements are an exposed attempt to manipulate words."
The video then shows clips of "resistance" operations in Iraq, including the execution of Iraqi Interior Ministry elements.

Commenting on a tape showing an Iraqi security officer complaining about the inability of his men to bring the situation under control, Al-Zawahiri says: "This proves that the mujahidin made the right decision to target these infidel forces from the very beginning. It also shows how astray are the fatwas --which will not be rewarded in life or the Judgment Day-- that urged the Muslims to joint these troops."

Asked on "accusations" that the "Islamic State in Iraq" is to blame for the conflict with other armed groups, he says: "This accusation needs evidence. The State said it is ready to look into all grievances."

Asked if he 'is trying to acquit the State from these accusations," he says: "I cannot say that any certain side is guilty or not guilty without hearing from both sides. But what I am saying is that the State's approach cannot allow the bloodshed of the innocent and the violation of sanctities. I am saying this in light of my knowledge of the State's key leaders and in light of my knowledge of its stands."

The video then shows unidentified masked gunmen criticizing awakening councils, and criticizing Abd-al-Sattar Abu-Rishah, former head of Al-Anbar Awakening Council. One armed man says: "All people know that his past. He is an immoral man. He is a looter, and a thief. All people know his past. America could not find some one mor e base than him to use."

Al-Zawahiri calls on the Iraqi tribes to confront those whom he described as "traitors" and says the tribe that supports Islam and jihad and confronts any traitor who seeks to exploit its name for forbidden gain will be remembered in the history of Arabs and Muslims with pride and glory.

The video then shows the masked men with one of them asking how has the Untied States been able to control Al-Ramadi. He answers that it did so through economic siege that upset the common people, and those with weak hearts exploited this to incite the people against the "Mujahidin".

Al-Zawahiri is then asked if he has an advice to the "mujahidin" in Iraq. He replies: "Unity under the word of monotheism." Asked on the recent message of Usama Bin Ladin which was interpreted by some people as if Bin Ladin admits of Al-Qa'ida's mistakes and apologizes for them. Al-Zawahiri says at present there is nothing in Iraq that is called Al-Qa'ida, adding that the Al-Qa'ida of Jihad in the Land of the Two Rivers was merged with other groups in the Islamic State of Iraq. He accuses the channel, which was the first to broadcast the message (Al-Jazirah), of manipulating the message by omitting important parts of the speech. He says the omitted parts are very important and those parts could have been briefly mentioned since this channel devotes long times and programs for those who are much less important than Bin Ladin. He also says that the channel interpreted Bin Ladin's speech in a different way than its objective by saying that he is blaming the "mujahidin" of the Islamic State of Iraq although he was directing his speech to all "mujahidin" . Al-Zawahiri also says that the channel sought the views of commentators who are either hostile to, or unsympathetic with Bin Ladin's speech while professionalism requires seeking the opinions of those who oppose and agree with the message.

He urges all those who want to know what the "mujahidin" say only to depend on the "full texts of the mujahidin's messages that they post on the internet."

Asked about his advice to the "mujahdin" of unity under the word of monotheism, Al-Zawahiri says that they should iron out their differences and seek the arbitration of those who have Islamic knowledge and to keep away from the clerics affiliated with the rulers who "recognize the traitor rulers who assisted in besieging Iraq and opened their countries for the Crusader invading forces to launch their attacks from these countries and kill thousands of Muslims in Iraq and Afghanistan."

He then urges the mujahidin in Iraq to continue along the same path that was charted by their predecessors and support the Islamic state in Iraq against the "crusader-Zionist aggression" in Iraq. He also appeals to the Islamic state in Iraq to listen to their brothers open-mindedly and dedicate itself to serving the mujahidin in Iraq.

Al-Zawahiri then appeals to the Ansar al-Sunnah group and their leader Abu-Abdallah al-Shafi'i, saying that the mujahidin are awaiting the unity between the group and the Islamic state in Iraq. "And I tell them: The Islamic State of Iraq is your state, your emirate and your government. Who are you going to unite with if you do not unite with them?"
The interviewer then asks about the "political orientation which the mujahidin in Iraq should adopt particularly since the American crusader forces are about to leave." Responding, Al-Zawahiri says that the Islamic nation in general and the mujahidin elite in particular "will not offer their blood cheaply in the cause of God to be reaped by the likes of Abd-al-Nasir, Al Sa'ud, Bouteflika, and Musharraf."

Asked who the nation should trust, Al-Zawahiri says that the nation should trust the "honest mujahidin" who never backtracked or compromised.

He then appeals to members of the mujahidin groups in Iraq to realize that "the precursors of the caliphate state have begun to loom on the horizon." "And this is what Shaykh Usa ma Bin Ladin was referring to in his latest message, of which this part was not reported by Al-Jazirah despite its importance, when he talked about the redrawing of the region's map," he says.

On the role of Muslim clerics in this "critical stage," he says: "The role of the ulema in this critical stage is to emphasize the rule of the shari'a and rejection of territorial affiliation and nationalist spirit as a basis for discrimination between Muslims." They should, he says, also "emphasize the duty of the Muslims to continue jihad until the expulsion of the infidel invasion forces from Palestine, Afghanistan, Chechnya, and all the lands of Islam."

Asked if he expects the ulema in Iraq to play a certain role, he says: "Of course, they are on the battlefield and they are acquainted with the conspiracies being hatched against Islam and Muslims."

The interviewer then asks about the "fatwa of the mufti of Al Sa'ud on the impermissibly of to go forth to jihad in Iraq and elsewhere." Al-Zawahiri says this fatwa was supported by the "American crusaders." "This is evidence to moral cowardice because if he were a brave man, he would have listed the happenings, events, and parties to make it possible to examine and study what he said," he says.

Al-Zawahiri continues to criticize the mufti of Saudi Arabia and says that he should have remained silent and should not have exposed himself and his regime."

He says that when Saddam Husayn threatened the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, it sought the help of the Americans and issued "a dubious fatwa" allowing people to seek the help of the Americans.

He asks the mufti about his opinion of the Saudi initiative, by which the Saudis "recognized Israel and applied pressure on HAMAS to relinquish four fifths of Palestine." He also asks the mufti about "the number of oil barrels" which the Saudi king provided for the "Crusader forces" to invade, destroy, and bombard Iraq and Afghanistan.

While showing footage of King Abdallah of Saudi Arabia shaking hands with Pope Benedict XVI, Al-Zawahiri says that the mufti should have reprimanded King Abdallah for such a visit.

Al-Zawahiri then criticizes the stand of some "jurists" in Algeria who "tied their fate to that of rulers and kings" and failed to realize the tragedy of people in Algeria who made great sacrifices and ended up under "the oppression of butchers who serve US and French interests."

On the US Senate's resolution to partition Iraq, Al-Zawahiri says that "this was a deal that the Crusader invaders struck with traitors, who trade in religion, and secular agents."

He goes on to say that he spoke about this partitioning in his first message after the 11 September events, more than five months before the "invasion of Iraq."

He adds that the American "campaign" is expected to include Iran and Pakistan "to destroy any country that has nuclear projects in the Middle East in order to guarantee Israel's security."

Al-Zawahiri then criticizes the practices of Shiites in Iraq and the building of "gold domes of shrines" which the Shiites build in Iraq and says that had Imam Al-Husayn been alive, he would not have accepted this. He urges them to melt these domes and use their money to help the poor.

He criticizes the practices of Shiite militias in Iraq, which are carried out "under Iranian guidance" and says that they will remain "a disgrace in the history of Islam and even in the history of humanity" because they cooperate with the Americans and "fight under their banner."

Answering a question on Muqtada al-Sadr, Al-Zawahiri describes him as "one of the arms of Iran in Iraq", saying that in 2004 Al-Sadr announced that Al-Mahdi Army will hand over its weapons to the Americans and announced that Al-Mahdi Army is "a civil institution that participates in the political process."

He goes on to say that "the skirmishes" that take place between Muqtada al-Sadr and the Americans are "American-Iranian conflicts over the expansion of powers . "

On ways to stop Shii te-Sunni fighting, Al-Zawahiri says that "the aggressor should be asked to stop his aggression" so as to have the chance to stop fighting.

Asked to elaborate on this, Al-Zawahiri says that those who cooperate with "the Crusader occupier" should stop doing so" and should be engaged in jihad against the Crusaders.

On Kurds in Iraq, Al-Zawahiri says that they are a "genuine part of the Muslim nation" and that every Muslim should take pride in their history. He adds that Kurds should not accept for the Kurdistan of Iraq to be governed by "a secular government that is agent of the Crusaders and that cooperates with Jews."

Al-Zawahiri also criticizes Iran's recognition of the "agent government in Kabul" immediately after it was established and criticizes it for the help it provided for the Americans during its invasion of Afghanistan.

Al-Zawahiri says: "With regard to Iraq, Iran achieved an agreement with the Americans before the latter's entry into Iraq. The agreement provided for partitioning Iraq. The Shiite militias trained, funded, and armed by Iran for years advanced violently and quickly into Iraq following the collapse of the Saddam regime. They were merged into the Iraqi Army and other Iraqi security services. They were and remain the Crusader occupier's paws used to strike at Muslims in Iraq. Despite the repeat of the slogans death to America, death to Israel by Iran, we have not heard a single fatwa from a single Shiite religious authority inside or outside of Iran urging jihad against the Americans in Iraq or Afghanistan. As a matter of fact, Rafsanjani has made a statement expressing respect for the wishes of the Iraqi agents of Iran regarding the continued presence of US troops in Iraq."

Then, Rafsanjani is shown making a statement to this effect. He is also shown saying that the Iranians will not take the lead in eliminating Israel.

Al-Zawahiri adds: "The statement made by Ahmadinezhad regarding the elimination of Israel is indicative of unsubstantiated propaganda. This is because had he been sincere in his desire to eliminate Israel, he would not have shared with it membership of the United Nations, whose Charter provides for respecting the sovereignty of all UN members and their territorial integrity."

Al-Zawahiri describes PA President Mahmud Abbas and PA's Muhammad Dahlan as "agents who are fighting Islam" and who collaborate with the CIA and the Mossad.

Al-Zawahiri adds: "Hasan Nasrallah used the same equivocating language on Palestine."

Then, Hasan Nasrallah is shown speaking while holding a meeting with a foreign dignitary. Nasrallah, speaking in Arabic, with sentence- by- sentence translation into English, is shown saying: "The major issue is Palestine, and this has to do with the Palestinians. We are in no position to decide on behalf of the Palestinians as to what they would accept or would not accept."

Al-Zawahiri says that Hizballah cannot be considered "a national liberation movement."

When asked by the interviewer on whether Iran will get help from the Muslim Ummah in case it comes under US attack, Al-Zawahiri says: "Iran has stabbed the Muslim Ummah in the back. It caused itself and the Shiites following it a historic disgrace. The signs of this stab will remain vivid in the Muslims' memory for a very long time. The strange paradox to which I would like to draw attention is that despite the fact that Iran permitted the Crusader troops to enter Iraq, recognized the agent government there, and pushed its militias to participate in this government's army, security services, and police force, and despite its recognition of the agent government in Afghanistan, it is warning the United States of double retaliation against its interests worldwide if it attacks Iran."

Then, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamene'i is shown making a statement to the effect that if it is attacked, Iran "will threaten all American interests around the globe."

Al-Zawahiri wonders: "Is it religiously impermissible for the Iranian territory to be occupied by the Americans when the occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan is considered religiously permissible? Is Tehran more important to them than Karbala and Al-Najaf? Why is Khamene'i threatening the United States with double retaliation if the latter attacks Iran when he did not stir a finger when the US shells penetrated the Shrine of Imam Ali, may God honor his face, in Al-Najaf?"

Al-Zawahiri also attacks the Egyptian regime and Jamal Mubarak and their close ties with the United States.

Regarding the Palestine question, Al-Zawahiri says: "The problem does not lie with Mahmud Abbas or the Fall conference, but rather with the politicians of bargaining who recognize Mahmud Abbas as president an d grant him the right to negotiate on the Palestinians' behalf. How can Mahmud Abbas be given the right to negotiate in the name of the Palestinians when everybody knows that he is selling out Palestine?"

With regard to current developments in Pakistan, Al-Zawahiri says: "Musharraf and his regime are reeling, they are in their final days, God willing. Their failure is a part or prerequisite of the US failure in the region. As a matter of fact, what brought about Musharraf's defeat are the uprising and jihad awakening which prevailed in the tribal regions and spread to central Pakistan, thanks to the blessings of the Afghan jihad against the Crusaders in Afghanistan. All that is happening in Pakistan, from arranging the return of Benazir, to the announcement of the state of emergency, to the arrests, to the successive repression measures, constitutes a desperate US attempt to remedy the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan."

He adds: "I appeal to whoever has concern for Islam in Pakistan to join the mujahidin, back them, and support them, because they are the key to salvation from the rotten and corrupt regime in Islamabad."

Al-Zawahiri goes on to say: "If it is to save Pakistan from the bleak future it is being led into by Musharraf, this army must act against Musharraf." '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Questions about Authenticity of Bin Laden Video

Some evidence that the audio track of the recent Osamah Bin Laden video was laid down over an older video has been given.

If true, this manipulation would not in my view prove that the audio was fraudulent.

One problem is that the video would have to be awfully old to have Osama with a short black beard, and I don't know of any old footage that looks like that.

The audio sounds like Osama to me.

See Barnett Rubin's analysis of the new speech as a form of market rebranding on Bin Laden's part.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Bin Laden Brandishes Jihadi Threat against US in Iraq

I don't know why so many press commentaries keep saying that the new videotape from
Usama Bin Laden does not contain any threats.

It contains a clear threat: to escalate regional jihadi resistance against the US troops in Iraq.

(The text is here in PDF format.

Bin Laden, however, is not now and perhaps never has been a credible actor in Iraq. Most Iraqis are nationalists and would not want a Saudi telling them what to do. He made a big but perhaps unavoidable error in attacking the Shiites, and so denying his movement a nationalist platform. Al-Qaeda in Iraq is a small cult of hyper-Sunni bigots and serial murderers. Instead of playing Abdul Nasser, who attracted the allegiance even of many Shiite Arabs in his day, Bin Laden long ago chose to play the role of a cultist, a David Koreish with better explosives.

A lot of jihadis consider Bin Laden a jinx, since he brought ruin on the Arab Afghans, who were killed, captured or had to go to ground.

And, the Iraqi Sunni Arabs are from all accounts increasingly acting to exclude the foreigners from their struggle against the Shiite government. The main antagonist of the US in Iraq has all along been elements in the local Sunni Arab population.

Bin Laden is stuck in the 1980s intellectually, when he was used by one superpower (the Reagan administration) against another (the Soviet Union). That bipolar world is gone, succeeded by a period of unipolarism. Jihadis with $10 bn. in aid from the US and Saudi Arabia and a national cause are one thing. Jihadis with no superpower patron, no united nation, and little or no money just become terrorists.

Ironically, Bin Laden has adopted the jejune leftist rhetoric of his erstwhile Soviet foes, making everything into a conspiracy of some corporations. But instead of calling for the workers to unite and overthrow their chains, he ends by assuring us that a fundamentalist Muslim dictatorship would be benign.

Bin Laden is like a venomous snake, always dangerous, and you never want to underestimate a cobra if it is in striking distance. But Iraq isn't the Afghanistan of the 1980s and 1990s, and if Bin Laden thinks it is, he is very out of touch.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Satire: I Wanna Be Like Usama

I've always been a firm believer in making fun of the bad guys, since they derive some of their power from being taken seriously.

From YouTube.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Cole in Salon: "Bush's incompetence gives al-Qaida new life"

My column is out in Salon.com on Tuesday, "Bush's incompetence gives al-Qaida new life":

The White House hints at military action as the terror organization regroups in northern Pakistan and the Musharraf government begins to wobble."

Excerpt:

' not only has al-Qaida reconstituted itself in the tribal areas of northern Pakistan, and not only did a sort of Pakistani Taliban make a play for control of some of the country's capital, but the Taliban allies of al-Qaida are resurgent in southern Afghanistan. In recent weeks they have pulled off destructive suicide bombings against NATO troops and Afghan civilians. On Monday, Taliban forces killed six NATO troops, four in a roadside bombing. On July 18 and July 19, they had kidnapped two Germans and 23 Koreans. One of the German hostages was found shot on Saturday. The presence of NATO forces and more than 20,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan has not stopped the Taliban from attempting to regain control of the Pashtun regions.

The resurgence of al-Qaida, and the usefulness of Bush's Iraq war as a recruiting tool, were further demonstrated by events in Europe. On July 21, Italian authorities announced the arrest of three Moroccans, whom they charged with running a terror-training program from a mosque and of being linked to al-Qaida. It is believed that their trainees were placed throughout the world, including in Iraq.

In an ideal world the United States could deal with such a threat by close cooperation with Italian counterterrorism officials. But the 2003 kidnapping of an Egyptian terror suspect named Abu Omar in Italy by Central Intelligence Agency operatives without Italian permission has roiled relations between the two countries. "

Read the whole thing.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

NYC Firefighters Critique Giuliani on 9/11

Was traveling and just saw this. The firefighters are critical of the no-bid contracts for communications equipment let by Giuliani, which ended up not working very well. Also other issues.

No bid contracts? Where have I heard that before?. (Scroll down to "Big Success in Iraq".)

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Plame Case Thrown Out;
National Security Imperilled

A federal judge has thrown out the lawsuit of Valerie Plame Wilson against Bush administration figures Irv Lewis Libby, Karl Rove, Richard Bruce Cheney, and Richard Armitage. She sued them for conducting a campaign to out her in the press as an undercover operative and so ruining her career.

The judge interpreted Cheney Inc.'s outing of Plame as just politics and something to be expected of political office-holders. That is, he believed their story that they were just defending themselves politically from what they saw as a Central Intelligence Agency attempt to smear them and their Iraq War. He admitted that their methods were "unsavory."

It is a ruling about the jurisdiction of the court and so something technical in the law about which I don't feel qualified to comment. Just as a citizen, I cannot understand how committing what was essentially an act of treason (or trying very hard to) can be seen as part of the ordinary political duties of incumbents.

The judgment will be appealed to the Supreme Court, but given the coloration of that court, one hardly expects the justices to rule against Bush-Cheney.

But the world has a kind of karma, and the United States will be punished for what Cheney Inc. did to Plame Wilson.

Think about it. She worked against nuclear proliferation, including with regard to Iran,with a "non-official cover" (NOC). She was an undercover operative with extremely sensitive duties.

So what are the big security challenges facing the United States in the next decade? They include the regrouping of al-Qaeda and the threat of nuclear proliferation.

What the United States therefore needs most to secure our country is smart, knowledgeable, skilled and dedicated counter-terrorism and counter- proliferation professionals. Without such persons, we are in danger of being hit hard by smart, knowledgeable, skilled terrorists.

But here is the problem. If you are a NOC, you are living a lie. Your very identity as CIA would potentially put everyone around you in danger, especially your friends, contacts and the agents you are running in foreign countries. You yourself could easily be assassinated on a trip abroad if your identity became known.

So you would depend for your survival and for the survival of your friends and contacts on the US government's willingness and ability to keep your identity secret. If you thought that the vice president might casually betray your identity if he thought it politically convenient to do so, you'd be crazy to put yourself in that position.

So, we've had the Plame Wilson affair, the profound hostility of Cheney Inc. to the reality-based CIA (for not going along with its fantasy machine), the Cheney project of blaming CIA director George Tenet for his own mistakes with regard to Iraq, and the changes and rotations in top personnel. Competent Middle East analysts like former Deputy Director of Intelligence Jami Miscik have been forced out.

So ask yourself, how many really smart competent people are going to volunteer to follow in Valerie Plame Wilson's footsteps and take all those risks for a job that does not pay all that well, knowing that the Cheney sorts might at any moment ruin their lives for petty political reasons?

So Bush and Cheney have deeply damaged recruitment, morale and efforts among our counter-terrorism agencies at the same time that their greedy and duplicitous occupation of a major Arab Muslim country, Iraq, is generating a new terrorist threat against the American homeland. They are creating the perfect storm.

So the judge threw out the lawsuit. But we will all be paying the damages.

Bush-Cheney have disarmed us and galvanized the enemy. They are traitors, and if something happens to America, it will be in some important part their fault.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Jordanian & Iraqi Physicians behind UK Bombing

A cell made up of 7 medical personnel from Jordan and Iraq appears to have been behind the attempted bombing at Picadilly Circus on Friday and the actual car bombing at the Glasgow airport this weekend. One is a neurologist, Muhammad Asha, from Jordan. Another is an Iraqi physician, Bilal Abdulla. CNN is reporting that Asha's family back in Jordan is stunned. They are middle class, not religious, and intermarried with Christians.

Why would highly educated and relatively well off professionals behave this way? I think this sort of cell suggests that three kinds of sociological theory need to be synthesized in order to understand contemporary social movements-- Social constructivism, resource mobilization theory and European new social movement theory.

Here I'll just concentrate on one, social construction in the Jurgen Habermas (left) and the Peter Berger/ Thomas Luckmann (right) traditions. Groups construct life-worlds within which social action becomes plausible to them. This cell of highly networked professionals had developed a narrative about the world that required they do these horrible things. They weren't motivated by poverty, or class grievances. Their ideas came out of a logic of self and other, such that they likely included Fallujah in "self" and all British foreign policy in "other."

Gradually the shape of that narrative may emerge, though actually there are impediments to our understanding these hothouse terrorist ideologies. The perpetrators often kill themselves, taking most of the details with them. Mainstream media often are little interested in tracking down the details, and government spokesmen are positively eager to downplay or dispute the internal motivations of the criminals. All this is understandable, but it does law enforcement and the public discourse a disservice.

With regard to the 7/7/2005 underground bombings, one of the perpetrators, Shahzad Tanveer clearly was responding to what he saw as a vast Western/Indian conspiracy to massacre Muslims in Kashmir, Afghanistan and Iraq. The conspiracy-theory aspect of his thinking, which brought together disparate political struggles into a single over-arching plot, is typical of these violent ideologies. We know what he thought in part because journalists from local British newspapers in his home area went to Pakistan to seek out his relatives. But the enormous impact on him of the Iraq War was repeatedly denied by the Blair government.

It is too soon to know what exactly was the little lifeworld constructed by these expatriate physicians in Scotland. It could be al-Qaeda, it could just be garden variety Arab nationalism. Note that such extreme points of view thrive when small numbers of persons are in intensive social action within the group and somewhat isolated from their surroundings. They reinforce each other constantly, without encountering skepticism. (Outsiders would say "You believe what?") Medical personnel with odd hours, who hung out socially mainly with one another, and spoke Arabic with one another while not intensively discussing their ideas with Britons, would fit this profile. They may have received reinforcement from internet chat groups.

The kind of thinking they would be engaged in (I don't know details) would typically be, "Britain and the US are conducting a genocide against Arab Muslims in Iraq, are ethnically cleansing Fallujah, Baqubah, and Baghdad, and this must be stopped and cannot be borne. Something must be done, something dramatic, to draw the attention of an apathetic public to the kind of policies they are supporting."

The narrative will be one-sided, exaggerated, black-and-white, with pure heroes and black-hearted villains. Typically they were not upset when Saddam Hussein was massacring 300,000 Iraqis, or when the Talaban were massacring people in Mazar-i Sharif and Bamiyan. (Baathi or Salafi bombings of Shiites in Baghdad also likely do not disturb them). A foreign/indigenous dynamic informs their outrage, so that indigenous atrocities are not (as) objectionable as what are seen as imperial interventions.

And then there will be the leap to irrational and counter-productive violence against innocents. Putting gasoline cannisters in a car and setting it on fire in front of a dance club or an airport isn't likely to actually change policy. It was even amateurish terrorism, since they only managed to set themselves and their car on fire. I suggested yesterday that the Glasgow Airport operation seemed more focused on suicide than on killing others, though they may have hoped to take some passengers with them. Neither homicide nor suicide actually helps their cause. If the group wanted to change British policy, they could have become activists in politics and given money to the Liberal Democrat party. Indeed, terrorism has the effect of reinforcing right-wing policy.

Disrupting these small-network ideologies may not be easy. But it would be important to know which media they typically watched or engaged with (satellite television? Internet?) and to think of strategies for challenging the narratives in those realms. Impressing on British anti-imperialists that there are political avenues in open societies for changing policy, and that violence is counter-productive to their aims, would be important. Public service ads to this effect in Arabic and Urdu might be an idea.

I suspect that, however, a lot of these deviant ideologies are now being driven by the Iraq War and to some extent Afghanistan (see below), and that social peace in Europe may well require Western withdrawal from those countries.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Glasgow attacked

British police have arrested more suspects in the car-bombing of the Glasgow airport.

Recent reports I hear at CNN suggest to me that suicide was more central to this Glasgow operation than usual in such attacks. The perpetrators are said to have doused themselves with gasoline. This was not in fact like Iraq, where the idea was to take as many Shiites with them as possible. Here, their methods were not in fact likely to cause much or any loss of life among others (gasoline is not a high explosive) but were guaranteed to kill them. It is said that they resisted being rescued.

I've learned, though, it is dangerous to read too much into initial reports.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Lawrence Wright's Play
"My Trip to Al-Qaeda"

Don't Miss the Special Engagement of Pulitzer Prize-Winner Lawrence Wright's My Trip To Al-Qaeda

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- May 10, 2007

MY TRIP TO AL-QAEDA ENCORE

Following a sold-out seven-week run at our Mercer Street theater and the recent announcement of Mr. Wright's Pulitzer Prize for The Looming Tower: Al-Qaeda and the Road to 9/11, Culture Project presents an encore special engagement of My Trip To Al-Qaeda.

Lawrence Wright - arguably the man who knows more about Al-Qaeda than any other American - uses facts, figures, and PowerPoint to bring his universally acclaimed, Pulitzer-Prize winning The Looming Tower: Al-Qaeda and the Road to 9/11 (a national best seller and one of the The New York Times Book Review's "Top 10 Books of 2006") to the stage in My Trip to Al-Qaeda.

LIMITED ENGAGEMENT, JUNE 5 and 6 ONLY at Town Hall (123 West 43rd Street)

Ticketmaster.com - 212 307 4100 For premium, patron, and VIP seats, call 212 925 1806 or write willow a t cultureproject.org

Smarttix patrons, use code:

JSMART

$35 Orchestra Tickets & $25 Balcony Tickets Regular tickets are $40 - These seats will not last! Good for the two performances of My Trip to Al Qaeda (June 5th and 6th) No cut off date for purchase!

Mr. Wright is an author, screenwriter, and staff writer for The New Yorker. He co-wrote The Siege, starring Denzel Washington, Bruce Willis, and Annette Bening, and wrote the Noreiga: God's Favorite , among others. Mr. Wright is currently working on a script about John O'Neill, the former head of the FBI's office of counter-terrorism in New York, who died on 9/11. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

In addition to the Pulitzer Prize for General Nonfiction, The Looming Tower has also garnered Mr. Wright The Los Angeles Times Book Prize for History and The J. Anthony Lukas Book Prize.

Critical acclaim for My Trip To Al-Qaeda:

"An engaging theatrical seminar on the rise of Islamic terrorism... his firsthand testimony will be hard to shake from the memory." -- The New York Times

"An intensely engaging presentation with an enormously knowledgeable authority on Al-Qaeda." -- The New York Sun

"Wright has a compelling perspective on an important issue of our time and shows how America's policy of torture is self-defeating, shocking, immoral, and plays into the hands of the people we're fighting. Worthwhile for anybody with a political conscience." -- Theatermania.com

"A master class that raises fundamental questions: What is Islam, and what is America?" -- NPR

How To Order On Line: Ticketmaster By Phone: 212-307-4100 Use Code: JSMART Venue Information

Town Hall 123 West 43rd St New York, NY 10036

Terms and Limitations: This offer is valid for new purchases only and is subject to availability. This offer may be revoked at any time and may not be combined with other offers. Limit 8 tickets per order and normal service charges apply.

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Ft. Dix Plot is Milosevic's Fault:
Postcolonial Wars and Terror

The small cell that plotted to attack Ft. Dix was made up of Albanians from Kosovo, along with a Turk and a Jordanian. Note that in the 1980s most Yugoslav Muslims were deracinated and secular. Croatian, Bosnian and Serbian are really the same language, and the only way you could tell if someone was a Muslim was to check their i.d. cards (the Communists recognized Yugoslav Muslims as a national minority). [See my colleague John Fine's When Ethnicity did not Matter.]

When Communism collapsed, Yugoslav politicians cast about for new platforms. Slobodan Milosevic decided to opt for the most chauvinist form of Serbian nationalism one could imagine, setting in motion a vicious and brutal war for territory on the basis of ethnic identity. Muslims in Bosnia were targeted for mass graves. Kosovo autonomy was much reduced, affecting yet another group, the ethnic Muslims of Albanian origin, who are not Slavs and who either were also secular or tended toward Sufism and Muslim traditionalism rather than fundamentalism.

In the aftermath of the Kosovo War of 1999, half of Kosovars lived in poverty and fundamentalist charities started being active among them. Kosovars were most often secular and anti-Islamic or heterodox when religious. Milosevic monstrously attempted to use charges of al-Qaeda presence in Kosovo (unproved) as a pretext for killing Kosovars. In fact, his policies pushed some Kosovars into the arms of the Salafis.

In other words, Kosovo was not about Islam. It was another post-colonial war like many others in the post-Soviet period. If some Kosovars now turn to radical fundamentalism, it is a result of the collapse of the old Communist framework and the attacks on them of the Milosevic fascists.

John Tirman sees the US occupation of Iraq as generating Muslim fundamentalist violence against the US, in a vicious circle.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Saudi Terror Plot Averted
State Dept.: Terrorism up 30%

Condi Rice wanted to delay the news, but it has broken on two fronts.

Warren Strobel and Jonathan S. Landay of McClatchy report that the annual State Department on terrorism will report a nearly 30% rise over the previous year, most of it accounted for by attacks in Iraq and Afghanistan.

In other words Cheney has it exactly backwards. The US military presence in Iraq and Afghanistan is feeding terrorism, not preventing or lessening it. "They" won't follow us home if we leave. But they might if we don't.

As if to put an exclamation point on the State Department report, the Saudis were constrained to arrest some 172 persons involved in al-Qaeda terror cells in the Kingdom, who were planning to hijack planes and fly them into the Saudi oil fields. If they targeted the oil facilities cleverly, the terrorists could have taken 10% of the world petroleum supply off the market, at least for a while.

Saudi Arabia pumps roughly 8.56 million barrels a day of the some 86 million barrels a day of oil that are pumped in the whole world. You take any substantial amount of that off the market even for a month, and it would have a major negative impact on world energy supplies and prices.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Dadullah Claim on UBL "Unreliable"

The USG Open Source Center has translated the transcript of a Pakistani television interview program that casts doubt on the claim by Mulla Dadullah that Usamah Bin Laden planned out the attack on Bagram, and is also behind the guerrillas in Iraq.

Taliban Commander Claim on UBL Geo News TV Thursday, April 26, 2007 Program: "Today With Kamran Khan" Karachi Geo News television in Urdu at 1800 GMT on 25 April relays live from its Karachi studio regularly scheduled "Today with Kamran Khan" program. Noted Pakistan journalist Kamran Khan reviews, discusses, and analyzes major day-to-day developments with government ministers and officials, opposition leaders and noted analysts . . . Segment V Kamran Khan says the "most reliable" Taliban Commander Mulla Dadullah has made a "startling revelation" in an Al-Jazeera TV interview that the suicide attack at the Bagram airbase in Afghanistan targeted US Vice President Dick Cheney and it was "planned and supervised by Usama Bin Ladin himself." Khan says this is for the first time in last few years that the report has come about Usama Bin Ladin's operational activity from a "credible source" as Mullah Dadullah is considered close to Al-Qa'ida and he is the top most commander of Taliban. Kamran Khan establishes telephonic contact in Peshawar with Rahimullah Yusufzai, prominent Afghan affairs analyst, and asks him how "//credible//" is Mulla Dadullah's claim. Yusufzai says when the Bagram suicide attack took place, a Taliban spokesman had then claimed that "the Taliban have carried out the suicide attack." Yusufzai adds that the Taliban at that time did not say that the attack was carried out by Al-Qa'ida or supervised by Usama Bin Ladin. Yusufzai says the attack took place about 2 months ago and Dadullah's claim has come after a long period. Yusufzai thinks that if the attack was supervised by Usama Bin Ladin, he would have claimed it "right away" because it was a big success that the Bagram airbase was attacked, which caused a "big //embarrassment//" to the United States. Continuing, Yusufzai says Dadullah himself has now become a "controversial" figure among the Taliban ranks because of his recent activities, including "beheading" people. Yusufzai says so it is not right to describe Dadullah as "credible" and "important" Taliban leader. Yusufzai believes that Dadullah has made the claim under a "//strategy//" to "//mislead//" the United States and the NATO. Yusufzai thinks that Usama Bin Ladin is "alive, but non-functional and it is not possible for him to plan or supervise Al-Qa'ida activities." Yusufzai says according to his information, Al-Qa'ida does not have enough volunteers and cadres that it could plan attacks like one on Bagram airbase. Yusufzai adds that most of the suicide attacks in Afghanistan are being carried out by Taliban. (Description of Source: Karachi Geo News TV in Urdu -- 24-hour satellite news TV channel owned by Pakistan's Jang publishing group).

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

4 US Troops Killed, 9 Wounded
1993 WTC Attack was al-Qaeda, not Saddam

A lot of commentators will note that Khalid Sheikh Muhammad has admitted that he planned out the 9/11 attacks. What they will miss is that he claimed the 1993 World Trade Center bombing as his idea, as well, and as an al-Qaeda operation. Remember that Paul Wolfowitz, following the frankly kookie Laurie Mylroie, blamed Saddam Hussein for the 1993 bombing. Wolfowitz was then the number 2 man in the Pentagon and enormously influential. His conviction that Bin Laden was "one little man" and that 9/11 had to have had a state sponsor (i.e. Iraq) helped drive us into the current quagmire. Wolfowitz was wrong, dead wrong. Has he ever admitted it? Should someone so wrong on so much really be heading the World Bank?

The senate has brought to the floor a proposal that would gradually bring US troops out of Iraq. Republicans are confident that they can still defeat it.

The deaths of 4 US GIs were announced Wednesday, with 3 killed in Diyala Province and 9 wounded.

In the northern Turkmen and Kurdish city of Tuz Khurmato, guerrillas set off a bomb that killed 10 and wounded 15.

4 decapitated bodies were found in Baquba, the provincial capital of Diyala, northeast of Baghdad. In Iskandariya, guerrillas blew up a mosque. Police found 16 bodies in the streets of Baghdad. There were scattered bombings and shootings around the country.

Rolling Stone does a piece that quotes me and others on the situation in Iraq and the best and worst scenarios.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.