Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Tuesday, February 28, 2006

Over 1300 Dead in Sectarian Violence
Mortar Strike on Sunni Mosque Kills 4
Violence Subsides


Ellen Knickmeyer and Bassam Sebti of the WaPo reports that since last Wednesday rioters and militiamen have killed over 1300 Iraqis on a sectarian basis. They add,


' Hundreds of unclaimed dead lay at the morgue at midday Monday -- blood-caked men who had been shot, knifed, garroted or apparently suffocated by the plastic bags still over their heads. Many of the bodies were sprawled with their hands still bound -- and many of them had wound up at the morgue after what their families said was their abduction by the Mahdi Army, the Shiite militia of cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. '


The pace of killing slowed on Monday despite the end of the curfew, but there was still some violence.

Reuters reports that on Monday in Iraq, guerrillas fired a mortar shell on Shola, a Shiite district in West Baghdad, killing 4 and wounding 17.

In Nahravan, police commandos from the Interior Ministry fought a battle with Sunni Arab guerrillas. The guerrillas killed 8 police and wounded 6. The police killed 6 guerrillas and said they captured 25.

In the Shiite holy city of Karbala, Iraqi police captured three men planting bombs near the shrine of al-Hurr al-Riyahi.

Robert Worth of the NYT reports, "South of the capital, in Mahmudiya, nine bodies were found blindfolded and shot in the head, police officials said. Four more bodies were found to the north, in Baquba."

The Iraqi Army deployed a few of its 77 tanks in northern Baghdad.

The LA Times reports that the recent violence in Iraq has provoked a debate in the Pentagon about planned troop draw-downs in Iraq. Some officers think it is crazy to reduce the number now. Others believe that the Iraqis will never step up to the plate as long as they can call in US soldiers. The article quotes Michael Rubin of the American Enterprise Institute (Likud Branch), who is a civilian chickenhawk even though he is young enough so that he could have joined the military and served in Iraq, as saying that it is not the right time to bring home the troops.

Someone should explain to me why last week's events are an argument for keeping US troops in Iraq. What did they do? Did we hear about any US military units guarding Sunni mosques as they were being attacked by Shiite mobs? The LA Times reports on how US troops were caught between two sides in the rioting, and because they could not enter mosques, were often not able to investigate violent attacks against them.

Al-Zaman/ AFP report that [Ar.] hundreds of Iraqis from both the Sunni and Shiite branches of Islam prayed in unison at the Grand Mosque of Tikrit, responding to a call by clergymen. Worshippers streamed to the service from all over Salahuddin Province, including the cities of Baiji, Samarra, Blad, Dujail and Sharqat. Representatives of the Sadr Movement attended, as did those of the Association of Muslim Scholars.

The governor of Salahuddin hailed the joint service as a moment of national unity, and blamed the destruction of the golden-domed Askariyah Shrine in Samarra last Wednesday on "outside forces."

Sadrist cleric Shaikh Muhammad Taqi pledged that this service was just the beginning of many coming such joint worship sessions. He complained, "It is wrong for us to say, this one is a Sunni and that one is a Shiite. We are all Muslims and we are all children of this nation."
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Monday, February 27, 2006

Violence Kills 29 Despite Curfew in Iraq
British Embassy in Tehran Torched


Despite the daytime curfew, violence killed 29 in Iraq on Sunday and wounded dozens. A series of eight mortar shells slammed into Shiite neighborhoods, killing 16 persons and wounding some 45. Many women and children were among the victims. There was other violence in Baghdad, as well as in Baqubah, Hillah, Basra and elsewhere, prompting former British envoy in Iraq to characterize the country as already in a state of low-level civil war. Iraqi officials have nevertheless lifted the curfew for Monday, in part because food stocks in stores are running low and there is danger of widespread hunger if people are not allowed to restock and shop.

Angry Iranians threw Molotov cocktails at the British embassy in Tehran on Sunday. Over 1,000 students maintained that Coalition forces in Iraq were responsible for the bombing last Wednesday of the Askariyah Shrine in Samarra.
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Afghanistan Prison Riot
25000 Protest in Pakistan


The Bush administration cannot even control the al-Qaeda operatives it has in prison! Much less the many walking around free because Bush wasted our resources on an Iraq War instead of polishing off al-Qaeda.

Meanwhile, the furor over the Danish caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad has not died down. Some 25,000 pretested in Karachi on Sunday.

Many Muslims are convinced that the caricatures of the Prophet and the attack on the Askariyah Shrine in Samarra were both US plots against Islam.
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Muqtada calls for Sunni-Shiite Marches, Prayers
Wants Pan-Islamic Resolution for US Withdrawal


Al-Zaman / AFP report that [Ar.] young Shiite nationalist leader Muqtada al-Sadr, having arrived at Basra on Sunday from Iran, called for a joint peaceful demonstration involving both Shiites and Sunnis that demands the departure of US, British and other foreign troops from Iraq and calls for concord between Sunnis and Shiites.

Muqtada once again blamed the United States for the destruction of the Askariyah Shrine at Samarra.

Sadr said before a big crowd of his supporters in the southern Gulf port, "I call for a united, peaceful demonstration in the capital, Baghdad, which you will organize at a specific time, involving Shiites, Sunnis and others, in which you will demand the withdrawal of the Occupying forces, and call for mutual love among you." He made an attempt to rein in the Mahdi Army militias [plural in the original Arabic report], whom Sunnis accuse of burning Sunni mosques in Baghdad after the Samarra attack.

Muqtada said, "The leaders of Friday prayers throughout Iraq, from the north to the south and from east to west, must call for this peaceful demonstration among all sections of the Iraqi population, who much not be divided as to battle cry. The Iraqi people is one, from north to south."

Muqtada also called for holding "joint Friday communal prayers with both Sunnis and Shiites in the mosques," affirming that "there are no Sunni or Shiite mosques; you are a single people." He added, "We want the Occupation forces out, even if on their own timetable, in an objective fashion, as they say." He said, "Our Iraq is passing through a big crisis, insofar as enemies are entering among brethren, and spreading turmoil among you."

Muqtada wondered aloud, "Do you want to give aid to the enemy? Do you want to render the Occupier victorious? Do you wish to make Satan triumphant, or do you wish to help the Truth?" He added, "If you burn down mosques, are you helping falsehood or the truth? Do you wish to help falsehood?" He shouted, "No, no to falsehood!"

Al-Sadr said, "Do not forget the plotting of the Occupation, for if we forget its plots, it will kill us all without exception." He went on, "Sometimes they curse the Messenger of God [Muhammad] and defame him [with their cartoons], and sometimes they blow up our Imams. This series of attacks is not the first and it will not be the last. The attacks will continue. Beware, and be responsible. Religion is your responsibility, mosques are your responsibility, the Muslim people is your responsibility, so do not attack the secure houses of God. Love one another and be brethren of one another so that our Iraq will be secure and stable and independent. We want the expulsion of the Occupier and not the American ambassador."

A spokesman for Sadr in Najaf, Sahib al-`Ameeri, said that Muqtada's primary mission is to restore order so as to preserve the unity of the Muslims and to protect their holy places.

Another Sadr spokesman, Aws al-Khafaji, said that he had decided to appoint a committee to oversee his supporters. He forbade the Mahdi Army from wearing black, the symbol of their sectarian commitment to the messianic Twelfth Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi, whom many of them expect to return momentarily. (The Askariyah Shrine in Samarra, blown up last Wednesday, is associated with the Twelfth Imam and his father and grandfather.)

Some Sunni Arabs were not mollified. A spokesman for the (fundamentalist) Iraqi Accord Front, Abdul Salam al-Zawbai, said that what had happened was a shock, since no one had believed that elements of the [Shiite] Mahdi Army [of Muqtada al-Sadr] were capable of committing such deeds. He stressed that no one can at the same time participate in the political process and at the same time carry a weapon and possess a militia. This contradicts the first principles of democracy and the rule of law. He said that Muqtada al-Sadr now has an obligation to conduct himself like the other parties and become a power within the government. He called on al-Sadr to transform his militia into a political organization.

With regard to the issue of the Mahdi Army, Sadr spokesman Sahib al-`Ameeri said that some supporters carried arms as individuals, not as an organized armed militia that has received training. He said those Sadr supporters carried arms to protect their own homes. He added that the "Mahdi Army" represents a school of thought, not a political party. It tries to spread the ideas of Muqtada al-Sadr. He denied that it held regular meetings, rather said it held occasional gatherings.

On Sunday, Al-Sharq al-Awsat/ AFP reported that representatives of Muqtada met with the Sunni hardliners of the Association of Muslim Scholars in the Abu Hanifa mosque in Adhamiyah, north Baghdad. Representing Muqtada was Shaikh Fadil al-Shara along with other Sadrist leaders. AMS was represented by Shaikh Abdul Salam al-Kubaisi and others. The two sides decided on a number of points aimed at calming the situation in the aftermath of Sunni-Shiite riots. They condemned all attacks on mosques such as might lead to civil war.

In Cairo, the Grand Shaikh of al-Azhar, Muhammad Sayyid al-Tantawi, offered to go to Iraq to mediate the dispute between Iraqi Sunnis and Shiites. He called on them to stand united against the conspiracies against them.
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Sunday, February 26, 2006

More Shrines Destroyed, 60 Killed
Sistani forms Militia


KarbalaNews.net reports that [Ar.] guerrillas blew up a Shiite shrine in Bashir, south of Tuz Khurmato. This Turkmen region near Kirkuk is largely Shiite. It was not clear how much damage was done to the shrine. The people of the region formed units to guard the shrines and places of worship from any further destruction.

The same source says that [Ar.] Iraqi officers announced that 20 guerrillas attacked the shrine of Salman the Persian. They killed the guards and placed explosives at the tomb, then blew it up, destroying it.

US military sources have later denied that the shrine was destroyed, though they said it did take rocket fire. The rocket was a dud, and did no damage, they say.



Salman al-Farisi was a companion of the Prophet Muhammad who advised the early Muslims on military tactics, and is said to have introduced the technique of digging a trench to trip charging enemy cavalry. Because he was from Iran, and because the Iranians largely became Shiites after 1500, Salman is especially beloved by Shiites. The desecration took place 24 hours after 48 Shiites were killed in the same region. They had been on their way to a peaceful demonstration against Wednesday's destruction of the Askariyah Shrine at Samarra.

Guerrillas also set off a bomb in the Shiite shrine city of Karbala, killing 8 and wounding 31.

In response to these further attacks on Islamic and Shiite shrines, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani called for the establishment of tribal levies to protect tsuch holy sites. He received a delegation of tribesmen from Kufa. Most of the rural clans of the Middle Euphrates are devoted to Sistani and woul be willing to provide such a militia. This proliferation of militias is however extremely worrisome.

In some of the best reporting on the role of the Shiite clerics in this crisis, Robert Worth and Ed Wong of the NYT reveal that the Americans in Iraq initially were powerless when the crisis broke out on Wednesday, and could only hope that the Shiite clerics would calm people down. They only gradually realized that the clerics were equally capable of stirring people up, and that the clerics themselves were under enormous pressure from enraged followers to do something.

This last point is why it is so dangerous for Sistani to form his tribal levies into a militia. He will be hostage in some ways to their enthusiasms.

The Iraqi army and American forces have stopped hundreds of pilgrims who had been in Karbala from heading north to Samarra.

NPR reported eyewitness accounts, corroborated by other reports, that the Mahdi Army took over several Sunni mosques in Baghdad and hung black banners from them. These banners signify the Twelfth Imam, who is associated with the tomb destroyed at Samarra. That is, the Mahdi Army took over Sunni mosques and rededicated them to the messiah of the Shiite branch of Islam, which is highly provocative.

Young Shiite nationalist Muqtada al-Sadr reached an agreement with a hard line Sunni organization to work to tamp down the communal violence.

Al-Hayat [Ar.] says that Bush called the major Iraqi politicians on Sunday to encourage them to go back to working on the government of national unity. He appears to have convinced the Sunni Arab leaders to come back to the bargaining table.
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Saturday, February 25, 2006

Violence in Baghdad, Samarra
Curfew Partially Observed


There was more violence on Friday in Iraq amid calls by clerical leaders for peace. The daytime curfew called for earlier was widely ignored, especially in East Baghdad or Sadr City, where the Mahdi Army militiamen were out in force, driving around in heavy vehicles.

*Samarra:
Borzou Daragahi of the LA Times reports,

' violence broke out in Samarra, home of the destroyed Shiite shrine. Two police officers were killed and two civilians injured in clashes and a vital oil pipeline set ablaze by saboteurs. '


*Baghdad:

Daragahi adds, 'Iraqi police today found at least 29 bodies scattered in Baghdad. Each corpse was handcuffed and had single gunshots to the head, in the style often attributed to Shiite death squads believed attached to the Ministry of Interior. '

Ed Wong of the NYT reports on the role of the militias in the recent violence in Iraq. The Shiites will certainly now insist on keeping them, after the bombing of the Askariyah shrine, but the Sunni Arabs fear them and are threatening to form their own.

Al-Zaman says that Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani called for calm on Friday, as did his Sunni Arab counterparts.

The daytime curfew called for Baghdad and some heavily Sunni Arab provinces was only partially effective. There were clashes in several districts of Baghdad, including Al-Sayyidiyah and al-Durah, but no details were forthcoming. Some clashes were said to be between Mahdi Army militiamen and Sunni Arab guerrillas.

Tariq al-Hashimi of the Iraqi Islamic Party said the security situation had improved somewhat, but expressed concern about streams of Shiite pilgrims headed from Karbala to Baghdad and then Samarra'.

Ayatollah Muhammad Ya`qubi, the spiritual leader of the Fadhilah Party, forbade his followers from marching to Samarra as they had originally planed. [The same thing is true of Muqtada al-Sadr.]

I gave an interview to Jim Lobe of Interpress Service in which I raised the possibility that there might now be a hung parliament in Iraq, with no group able to form a government, forcing new elections and further political gridlock. The Sunni Arab party, the National Accord Front, has pulled out of negotiations on the formation of a new government.

The daytime curfew in the central Sunni Arab provinces has been extended another day, through Saturday.

AP points to the way in which the Askariyah Shrine crisis points to the great authority and power of the clergy in contemporary Iraq.

NPR reported that on Wednesday and Thursday, many Iraqi policemen and soldiers either stepped aside for Shiite mobs who attacked Sunni mosques, and that some even joined in the attacks.

It just goes to show how inadequate this report for the Pentagon is. It says that 53 battalions can fight with US help, and that none can do so on their own, and that Sunni attacks have not yet produced sectarian violence. In comedy and in politics, timing is everything.
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Friday, February 24, 2006

Suicide Bombing of Saudi Oil Complex Foiled

We all just dodged a bullet. But for how long?

The good news is that the suicide bombing by unidentified radicals against the Saudi oil processing center in largely Shiite Abqaiq (Baqiq) was foiled, though bombs did go off.

Saudi Arabia, dominated by hard line Wahhabi Sunnis, produces about 9.5 million barrels a day of petroleum, and exports over 7 million barrels a day.

Folks, the world only produces about 85 million barrels a day. And most of that is used up by the producers so it isn't available for export. The US, for instance, produces 5.5 million barrels a day, but it uses about 20 million barrels a day. It uses all of its production and then 3 times that from other countries.

So the Saudi production is 11 percent of the world total, but it is far more than that of the amount of petroleum available for anyone else to buy.

If you took out the facility at Abqaiq, it would be very bad news for world transportation systems.

Iraqi production is already down 38% from pre-War levels. Nigerian production is off 20 percent because of political strife there. There haven't been any big new strikes, and China and India and others are using more and more.

While it is desirable that the world be weaned off petroleum in favor of renewable energy like solar that do not contribute to global warming, it is also desirable that that process happen gradually. You don't want the world thrown into a sort of Depression that would reduce research and development monies and effort for green energy.
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Dozens of Mosques Attacked, Over 100 Dead, Thousands Protest

CNN reports that 7 US GIs were killed in Iraq on Wednesday.

There will be a curfew in the core Sunni Arab areas, including Baghdad, to prevent the worshippers from rioting afer the Friday prayers ceremony.

Sunni Arabs in Iraq blamed US troops for not protecting Sunni mosques and worshippers from violence. The US military ordered the US soldiers in Baghdad to stay in their barracks and not to circulate if it could be helped. [Later reports said some US patrols has been stepped up.] This situation underlines how useless the American ground forces are in Iraq. They can't stop the guerrilla war and may be making it worst. Last I knew, there were 10,000 US troops in Anbar Province with a population of 1.1 million. What could you do with that small force, when the vast majority of the people support the guerrillas? US troops would be useless if they hcad to fight in alleyways against sectarian rioters. If they tried to guard the Sunni mosques, they'd have to shoot into Shiite mobs, which would just raise the level of violence they face from Shiites in the south.

Reuters reports that ' The main Sunni religious group said 184 Sunni mosques had been damaged, some destroyed; 10 clerics had been killed and 15 abducted. The Muslim Clerics Association accused Shi'ite religious leaders of stoking the anger by calling for protests. '

Abdul Salam al-Kubaisi of the [Sunni] Association of Muslim Scholars slammed grand ayatollah Sistani for calling for demonstrations, and implied that Shiite trouble makers were coming over from Iran:


“They are all fully aware that the Iraqi borders are open, and the streets are penetrated with those who want to create strife among Iraqis,” Abdul-Salam al-Kubaisi said at a news briefing. Al-Kubaisi said US Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad may also have enflamed the situation when he warned on Monday that the US would not continue to support institutions run by sectarian groups with links to armed militias.


In Diyala province, guerrillas set up a phony checkpoint and pulled 47 largely Shiite factory workers off a bus and summarily executed them. Other bodies showed up in the streets of Baghdad and other cities. Guerrillas set off two bombs in Baghdad, causing casualties.

Guerrillas used a bomb to kill 16 persons and wound 20 in Baqubah.

Thousands of Shiites marched in Baghdad, Tal Afar, Kut, Karbala and Najaf.

Young Shiite nationalist leader Muqtada al-Sadr charged that the Iraqi government and the US had failed to protect the Askariyah shrine in Samarra, and commanded his Mahdi Army militiamen to guard Shiite shrines throughout Iraq.

In Mahmoudiyah to the south of Baghdad, Muqtada's Mahdi Army militiamen fought a pitched battle with Sunni guerrillas, killing two civilians and wounding 5 militiament.

Muqtada issued a statement:
“If the government had real sovereignty, then nothing like this would have happened,” al-Sadr said in a statement. “Brothers in the Mahdi Army must protect all Shiite shrines and mosques, especially in Samara.”


Al-Hayat [Ar.] says that Muqtaada al-Sadr had originally called on his followers to go to Samarra for Friday prayers, but cancelled this call later when it became clear that there might be riots.

Pakistani Shiites demonstrated against the destruction of the Askariyah shrine.

Likewise, tens of thousands of Shiite protesters came out to rally in Beirut against the bombing on Thursday. In both Lebanon and Pakistan, the demonstrations turned anti-American.

I am interviewed at the Metro Times by by Curt Guyette & W. Kim Heron about Iraq and the war on terror.
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Thursday, February 23, 2006

Sistani threatens to turn to Militia
Sadr Calls for Calm


The shoe seems to be on the other foot now, with Muqtada al-Sadr attempting to cool Iraq's Shiites down and Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani threatening to create a paramilitary to protect Shiites.

Al-=Hayat says that [Ar.] the Sunni cleric Abdul Ghafur al-Samarra'i led a demonstration of Sunnis in Samarra' in protest against the "Excommunicators" for having attempted to set off a sectarian civil war in Iraq by bombing the shrine. They also blamed "the Americans". Al-Samarra'i asked for restraint and the avoidance of civil war. Sunni and Shiite demonstrators in the city (but presumably mostly Shiite) chanted "With our spirits and our blood, we sacrifice ourselves for you, O Imam!" [Bi'r-ruh wa'd-dam nufdika ya Imam!]

The ministers of defense and the interior made a joint announcement that the Iraqi armed forces had been put on alert for any contingency.

Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani was shown on Iraqiyah television meeting with the other 3 grand ayatollahs in Najaf, among whom he is first among equals. They include Bashir Najafi, Muhammad Ishaq Fayyad and Muhammad Sa`id al-Hakim. Sistani called for self-discipline and for peaceful demonstrations. He said Shiites must not attack Sunni mosques, but called for them to demonstrate peacefully. He laid responsibility for security on the Iraqi government, saying that it "is called today more than at any time in the past to shoulder its full responsibilities in stopping the series of criminal actions that have targeted holy spaces. If the security apparatuses are unable to safeguard against this crisis, the believers are able to do so, by the aid of God."

Astonishingly, Sistani seems to be threatening to deploy his own militia, Ansar Sistani, if the Iraqi government doesn't do a better job of protecting Shiites and their holy sites. One lesson Sistani will have taken from the bombing of the Askariyah shrine in Samarra is that he is not very secure in Najaf, either. But all we need in Iraq is yet another powerful private sectarian militia!

Muqtada al-Sadr had been in Lebanon. He cut short his trip and went overland to Iraq. He told the Syrian news agency that he condemns this "despicable crime" and called the Iraqi people to "unity and solidarity so as to deny any opportunity to those who wish to ignite public turmoil."

Abdul Aziz al-Hakim said during a press conference in Baghdad that the statements of the US ambassador in Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad, had "contributed to greater pressure [on the Shiites] and gave a green light to terrorist groups, and he therefore bears a part of the responsibility." Al-Hakim has long wanted to unleash the Badr Corps, his Shiite paramilitary, the Badr Corps, but has been checked by the Americans so far.

The Association of Muslim Scholars [hardline Sunni] called for calm but then blamed the Americans for the downward spiral of conditions.

After Supreme Jurisprudent Ali Khamenei blamed the US and Israel for the bombing on Wednesday, Shiites all over the world staged demonstrations in some of which they burned US and Israeli flags.

On the other hand, the thousands of protester in Bahrain blamed Sunni "excommunicators" instead.
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Wednesday, February 22, 2006

Iran Blames Bush
Sunni Shiite Clashes


Dan Murphy of the Christian Science Monitor has an excellent piece interpreting the significance of the turmoil over the bombing of the Askariyah shrine in Samarra.

Shiites came out in the thousands all over the Shiite south on Wednesday to protest. Quoting Sunni Arab spokesmen, the wire services are saying 75 Sunni mosques have been attacked, with two burned to the ground and 3 Sunni clergymen assassinated, with 6 Sunni Arabs dead altoghether in the violence.

In the southern city of Kut, AP says, 3,000 protesters came out to rally against the United States and Israel.

AFP says that 10,000 people in East Baghdad converged on the office of Muqtada al-Sadr, chanting against "Wahhabis" and America.

AP also describes some of the other violence:


' Large protests erupted in Shiite parts of Baghdad and in cities throughout the Shiite heartland to the south. In Basra, Shiite militants traded rifle and rocket-propelled grenade fire with guards at the office of the Iraqi Islamic Party. Smoke billowed from the building.

Shiite protesters later set fire to a Sunni shrine containing the seventh century tomb of Talha bin Obeid-Allah, companion of the Prophet Muhammad, on the outskirts of the southern city. Police found 11 bodies of Sunni Muslims, most of them shot in the head, in two neighborhoods of Basra, police Capt. Mushtaq Kadhim said. Two of the dead were Egyptians, Kadhim said.

Protesters in Najaf, Kut and Baghdad's Shiite slum of Sadr City also marched through the streets by the hundreds and thousands, many shouting anti-American and anti-Israeli slogans and burning those nations' flags. '


The hardline Shiite Mahdi Army has come out of Sadr City and is all over Baghdad. They are clashing with Sunnis in Basra.

Sunni leader Tariq al- Hashimi threatened reprisals for reprisal killings.

Abdul Aziz al-Hakim blamed the US for holding back the Badr Corps.

Grand Ayatollah Sistani called for nonviolent street protests that he must know won't be nonviolent.

Iran is blaming Bush and the Israelis, which is ridiculous but already widely believed in Iraq and Iran.

The threat of terrorism and attacks on Americans just went way up.

---

Postscript:

A reader writes in:

' An hour ago [my Iraqi Shiite fried] recieved a call from Najaf. You know the Najaf boys are losing their heads over what happened.

No wonder. 80 years or so ago their relatives bought some land up there [at Samarra] and established Shia communities around the mosque and in Samarra. So the boys had been working there living there from time to time and some really settled down for good. A month or two ago lots of Shia were expelled, thrown out of town or scared off.

And now this.

They told B. how the demolition was carried out. You see, it was nothing like
a hipshot sneaking up bombing by night. It was meticulous, skilful piece of work,
taking a lot of time, the guards knowing all about what was going on. At least that´s what they told him today.

So now they all gather downtown Nejef rallying, preparing a gruesome revenge.
Sistani tries hard to stop them, they told him, but the boys won´t listen. They´re heading for Samarra. '

[Revised].
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Shiite protests Roil Iraq

Tuesday was an apocalyptic day in Iraq. I am not normally exactly sanguine about the situation there. But the atmospherics are very, very bad, in a way that most Western observers will miss.

The day started out with a protest by ten thousand people in the Shiite holy city of Karbala, against the Danish caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad. These days, Shiites are weeping, mourning and flagellating in commemoration of the martyrdom of the Prophet's grandson, Imam Husayn. So it is an emotional time in the ritual calendar. when feelings can easily be whipped up about issues like insults to the Prophet. An anti-Danish demonstration in Karbala is a surrogate for anti-American and anti-occupation sentiment. The US won't be able to stay in Iraq withiut increasing trouble of this sort.

Then guerrillas set off a huge bomb in a Shiite corner of the mostly Sunni Arab Dura quarter of Baghdad, killing 22 and wounding 28. Another 9 were killed in other violence around Iraq. These attacks are manifestations of an unconventional civil war.

Then real disaster struck. The guerriillas blew up the domed Askariyah shrine in Samarra. The shrine, sacred to Shiiites, honors 3 Imams or holy descendants of the Prophet. They are Ali al-Hadi, Hasan al-Askari, and his disappeared son Muhammad al-Mahdi. Thousands of Shiiites demonnstrated in Samarra and in East Baghdad, against this desecration.

The Twelfh Imam or Mahdi is believed by Shiites to have disappeared into a supernatural realm (just as Christians believe in the ascension of Christ) from which he will someday return.

Some Shiites think his second coming is imminent. Muqtada all-Sadr and his followers are among them. They are livid about this attack on the shrine of the Mahdi's father.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is also a firm believer in the imminent coming of the Mahdi. I worry that Iranian anger will boil over as a result of this bombing of a Shiite millenarian symbol.

Both Sunnis and Americans will be blamed. Very bad
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Tuesday, February 21, 2006

Bringing the United Nations Back In

There will be anti-War protests in the coming month, as the 3-year anniversary of the Anglo-American invasion of Iraq approaches.

I think it is time to demand a timetable for US withdrawal from Iraq. I suspect a majority of Iraqi parliamentarians want that. The Sunni Arabs demand it. The Sadrists demand it. It is time. Saying that the guerrillas would take advantage of a timetable, given the carnage we saw on Monday (see below) is frankly silly. They are taking advantage of the current situation. We have to create a new situation, with which they might be happier so that they stop blowing things up. Staying this course is untenable.

But that step will not necessarily resolve the crisis.





I think the peace movement has a real opportunity here to make a push for much heavier United Nations involvement in Iraq. I say, let's make up placards calling on Kofi Annan to get involved, and calling on Bush to let the UN come in in a big way, with proper protection.

Here are the advantages:

1. The United Nations has political legitimacy in the Middle East. American unilateralism does not. The guerrillas would be humiliated to deal with Bush, who crushed them and marginalized them. They would be more likely to treat with the UN.

2. Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani has demanded greater UN involvement, and he has enormous authority with the Shiite majority.

3. No country is going to send troops to Iraq under a United States military command. There has to be a United Nations peace-enforcing command. Once that exists, it might become an umbrella for Arab League troops, e.g. Cheney was told as much when he was in Cairo, according to the Arabic press.

I.e., by keeping out the UN, the Bush administration is guaranteeing that it is mainly American (and British) blood and treasure that is spilt in Iraq for years to come.

4. If the United Nations could be mobilized to help Iraq through the coming years of instability and help shepherd it to independence from the US and UK, it would help to strengthen international, multilateral organizations generally and contribute to an institutionalization of international law.

5. The permanent members of the UN Security Council, as well as all UN member states, have a keen interest in the fate of Iraq and the Gulf. They should be encouraged to deploy some of their treasure (and probably some blood) for the common benefit of Iraqis and the world.

6. The peace movement will be more credible if it has a program other than simple US withdrawal from Iraq. The US public is aware that an Iraq in flames at the head of the oil-rich Gulf could have a horrible impact on the US itself. A demand that the Iraq situation be internationalized is a responsible way of getting the US out, getting Iraq out of Bush's incompetent hands, and helping Iraqis move forward.

7. Bush invaded Iraq in part in order to destroy the United Nations. Forcing him to bring it in to Iraq would be a blow against American unilateralism and rightwing American aggression for decades to come.
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Thinking about Suing

If among my loyal readers there are any attorneys with expertise in libel law, in the US or UK, who might be willing to consult on a possible series of lawsuits for reckless defamation of character resulting in professional harm--done on a contingency basis-- I'd much appreciate hearing from you.
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The Ambassador Versus the Ayatollah
: Khalilzad to Iraq: No Shiite Control of Interior, Defense
Sistani Contradicts Him


On Monday, the stage was set for an epic struggle between the two forces behind the scenes in Iraqi politics, US Ambassadro in Baghdad Zalmay Khalilzad and Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani of Najaf, the spiritual leader of Iraq's majority Shiites. In every previous such contest, Sistani has handily won against his American opponent.

Nancy Youssef of Knight Ridder reports on the press conference in Baghdad on Monday in which Khalilzad publicly threatened to cut off funding for the training of Iraqi troops if the ministries of defense and the interior are under "sectarian" control.

In plain English, Khalilzad was saying that the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) may not retain control of Interior (which in Iraq is a security organization) and continue to pack it with members of the paramilitary Badr Corps, most of them trained originally by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Sunni Arabs have charged that Interior Ministry police commandos have functioned as death squads, conducting reprisal killings against Sunnis.

It is in fact important for the recovery of social peace in Iraq that SCIRI and Badr be gotten away from Interior. The problem is that the Shiite religious parties have 132 MPs who will vote with them in a parliament of 275. Barring an unforeseen and substantial defection from among their ranks, they will almost certainly form the government. SCIRI has made it clear that it wants Interior, i.e. federal domestic policing and surveillance, under its control.

So Khalilzad does not have a lot of options. He appears to be attempting to undermine the Shiite government by encouraging the Kurds to ally with the Sunni Arabs. Some theorize that a Kurdish-Sunni alliance could outmaneuver the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance. They argue that the two main Kurdistan parties have 53 seats, the two main Sunni Arab coalitions have 55, and Iyad Allawi's National Iraqi List has 25, for a total of 133. If they could get the 5 Kurdish Islamists to join them, they would have 138, or 51 percent. There are also 3 Sunni Arab seats of the list of Mishaan Juburi, who had to flee the country in fear of being prosecuted as a Baathist agent; I'm not sure what will happen to his three seats, though.

The Kurdish-Sunni alliance scenario, however, makes no sense. First, it cannot provide the 184 seats needed to select a president, who appoints the prime minister. Only a Shiite alliance with Kurds or Sunnis could accomplish that. And, whoever selects the president will set things up to be sure that the president will ask them to form a government. So the Shiite MPs could strike and refuse to allow a president to be seated unless they were allowed to form the government.

Second, the Kurds want loose federalism. The Sunni Arabs are die-hard opposed to it. Both have their own plans for oil-rich Kirkuk. The 11 neo-Baathists around Salih Mutlak would be absolutely despised by most Kurds. Mutlak praised the Baath as the best party Iraq could have! The Kurds don't have fond memories of Baathism. A government coalition between Kurds and Sunni Arab Islamists and neo-Baathists wouldn't last longer than the first cabinet meeting.

Third, the Constitution absolutely requires the president to offer the prime minister post to the party that has the largest number of seats in parliament. It would would be unconstitutional to ask the Kurdistan Alliance with 53 seats to form a minority government with support from other parties, unless the largest party had already tried and failed to form a government.

It should also be remembered that the leading party in parliament controls Iraq's petroleum profits, of some $17 billion a year, and that this money becomes political patronage for members of the government. That's a big incentive to any group to stay with a sure thing rather than pulling out in favor of possible role in another, unstable, coalition.

Like it or not, it is the Shiite religious parties that have the cohesion to form a relatively stable government. They would only need to be joined by the Yazidi MP and the 5 Kurdish Islamists to have a majority. (It is also not impossible that some Shiite members of the Allawi list could jump ship and join with the religious Shiites). If Khalilzad goes too far in undermining them, he risks throwing Iraq into complete political instability and hot civil war.

Although there has been talk of the Fadhila or Virtue Party of the United Iraqi Alliance breaking off and going its own way, there has also been talk of Virtue getting one of the vice-presidencies so as to keep it in.

There is another thing. Al-Zaman/ AFP reports that Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani has called for all due speed in the formation of a new Iraqi government. A source close to Sistani said after the visit to him Monday of Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari said that the new government should not only be formed quickly but should "ensure the provision of services to the people. It should be a government based on competence, spotlessness and transparency." He added, "Sistani also affirmed during the visit the necessity to hew to the perogatives explicitly stated in the constitution with regard to powerful cabinet positions."

Jaafari said, "My visit to Sistani was so as to get his opinion insofar as he is the shepherd of the political process in Iraq." He added, "I came to listen to his views, and he affirms the necessity of haste in forming a government that is competent, spotless and transparent, and which acts in accordance with the constitution and the law, and takes an interest in the people and their demands." Jaafari said he hoped it would not take the three months to form a government that it took the last time. He said Kurdistan would be handled as specified in the constitution (i.e. there will be a popular referendum there in 2007 to decide if it will join the Kurdistan Regional Confederacy of Dahuk, Irbil and Sulaymaniyah).

Sistani, it should be remembered, has resources and authority that might be useful in keeping the Virtue Party from leaving the Shiite coalition. Most Shiites in Basra would not like to be denounced personally by the Grand Ayatollah.

Sistani appears to believe that since the leading party in parliament gets to choose the prime minister, and since the prime minister gets to choose the cabinet members, that it would be wrong for the United Iraqi Alliance to give away its right to powerful cabinet posts such as Defense and Interior, under American pressue.

There is one way for Khalilzad to avoid a debilitating and destructive contest with Sistani on this issue. It is for Khalilzad to identify a member of the United Iraqi Alliance in parliament who is not tied to the militias and who could be minister of the interior. That is, Sistani isn't demanding that the post go to SCIRI and Badr. He is demanding that it go to the UIA if the UIA wants it. Not all the parliamentarians in the UIA are tied to militias!


------
Appendix:


Provisions of the Iraqi Constitution on the Formation of a Cabinet:

' Article 73:

First: The President of the Republic shall name the nominee of the Council of Representatives bloc with the largest number to form the Cabinet within fifteen days from the date of the election of the president of the republic.

Second: The Prime Minister-designate shall undertake the naming of the members of his Cabinet within a period not to exceed thirty days from the date of his designation.

Third: In case the Prime Minister-designate fails to form the cabinet during the period specified in clause "Second," the President of the Republic shall name a new nominee for the post of Prime Minister within fifteen days.

Fourth: The Prime Minister-designate shall present the names of his Cabinet members and the ministerial program to the Council of Representatives. He is deemed to have gained its confidence upon the approval, by an absolute majority of the Council of Representatives, of the individual Ministers and the ministerial program.

Fifth: The President of the Republic shall name another nominee to form the cabinet within fifteen days in case the Cabinet did not gain the confidence. '


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Guerrilla War Still Going Strong:
Guerrillas kill 26, Wound 74 in Seven bombings, Other Attacks


Al-Zaman [Ar.]: The Iraqi governent says that during the seven days ending on Sunday, guerrillas launched 111 attacks on Iraqi army and police and on US and Coalition forces. These attacks left over 100 Iraqis dead and over 200 wounded.

The bloody totals for victims of guerrilla violence in Iraq on Monday can only be arrived at by combining press reports. Even then, I'm sure not all the wounded are accounted for, since wire services tend to report mainly deaths. The limitations of those Western sites that count casualties according to Western reports are suggested by how limited a lot of the reporting is. And, surely a fair number of those wounded in these attacks later die, and these are never reported in the Western press.

What follows is drawn from this AFP report, and another one from Reuters., and finally this CNN article. Here is what the whole sanguinary thing looks like at the end of Monday:

*A suicide bomber on a bus in Shiite Kadhimiyah killed 12 and wounded 9.

*Also in Baghdad, guerrillas set off a car bomb in the Diyala Bridge area in an attempt to assassinate the district head of that municipality, killing 2 and wounding 11. The politician escaped, but two of his security guards were the ones killed.

*Guerrillas set off a bomb near a group of laborers in Baghdad, wounding at least 19.

*Guerrillas set off two roadside bombs in East Baghdad as a Western convoy went by, wounding 11 persons, including two foreign contractros.

*A roadside bomb in central Baghdad wounded 2 policemen.

*About an hour's drive north of Baghdad, guerrillas in 15 cars attacked a truck convoy bearing supplies to a US military base, firing rockets and spraying machine gun fire. They killed 5 Iraqis. [This is a big, brazen attack near the capital.]

*In Mosul, a bomber left behind his payload at the Abu Ali Restaurant, killing 5 and wounding 21.

* Guerrillas ambushed a civilian motorist in Balad, killing him.

*Guerrillas near the Shiite holy city of Karbala used a roadside bomb to kill a US soldier.

*A roadside bomb in Iskandariyah south of Baghdad wounded yet another policeman.
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Monday, February 20, 2006

17 Dead in Guerrilla Violence
Fadhilah Defends Constitution


Robert worth of the NYT reports that some 17 persons were killed in guerrilla violence in Iraq on Sunday.

Guerrillas used an explosive device to kill the police chief of Kirkuk and two aides. The Sunni Arab fighters are resisting a take-over of the city by the Kurds, who dominate its police force.

Al-Zaman/AFP report that Baghdad is without electricity 20 hours a day. The guerrilla movement has waged a concerted campaign to starve the capital of fuel and power.

Al-Hayat reports that the Americans have given up attempting to dialogue with the Sunni Arab Resistance, preferring instead to deal with the tribes. This attempt has not gone well. The Americans paid $20 million to set up something called "tribal militias," money that appears to have simply been embezzled.

Iraqi Accord Front member Shaikh Khalaf al-`Ulyan called on the US government to direct its efforts toward the Iraqi resistance groups, saying that it had been a huge error to focuse in Ramadi on tribal chieftains who in fact have no influence, and some of whom had not even been in Anbar province for years. Shaikh Farhan al-Sadid also emphasized that the Americans would get nowhere with security in Anbar until they talked directly to the armed resistance.

King Abdullah II of Jordan met Sunday with young Shiite nationalist leader Muqtada al-Sadr. King Abdullah II called on Iraqis to participate in the political process so as to safegurad the future and the territorial integrity of Iraq. He said that Iraq's recovery and return to an active role in the region would benefit Jordan.

Muqtada al-Sadr thanked the king for the aid he had given to the people of Iraq, and for having defended the Prophet Muhammad when the king visited Washington, DC.

Muqtada said he had come to Jordan to meet his people and brethern and to strengthen ties between them and Iraq. He also wanted to represent the Jordanian public to his own constituencies back in Iraq.

Nadim Jabiri, a leader of the Shiite Virtue Party [Ar.] responded to the interview given Saturday to Aljazeera, in which Sadr rejected the new constitution because he feared it might break up Iraq. Jabiri's party has 15 seats in the new parliament, nominally as part of the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance to which Sadr's deputies also belong. But Virtue is uneasy within the UIA, and mostly opposed the selection of Ibrahim Jaafari as candidate for prime minister, something the Sadrists supported.

Jabiri said that the constitution had been accepted by 75 percent of Iraqis and therefore could not be rejected. He said, "Federalism is a fixed text in the constitution, and cannot be challenged." He said that the constitution had been fashioned via consensus and that many of its articles were still subjects of contention. He said that it is not permissible to go back on a document with such broad support from the public. As for the possibility that the Sadrists might introduce a measure to abrogate the constitution in parliament, Jabiri replied that an agreement already exists among the various parties to amend a number of the constitution's articles during the next four months. He said it was permissible for the Sadrists to work within that framework. He allowed that the political forces might settle on some limited amendments, but said that the principle of provincial confederacies could not be touched. But he said that since the confederacies were to be formed by provincial referendums, they could be forestalled by simply waging campaigns to convince people in the provinces not to take that step.

The elected provincial council of Maysan province in the South has cut off relations with the British military that polices the province in protest over the filmed beating of Iraqi youths there. Maysan is dominated by the Sadr Movement, which in any case is eager to see foreign troops out of the country. The Basra provincial council had already cut off the British, putting them in an increasingly difficult position. The central government wants the British troops to stay, but the provincial governments do not feel the same way about it.

The Associated Press reports on the continued fight in Ramadi and Anbar Province, which has lost 4 governors so far. One was assassinated, one resigned after an attack, and two had sons kidnapped. The central government building in Ramadi is a frequent target of attacks.
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What if Cheney had Apologized for Iraq?

Satire alert for the humorless. What would it have looked like if Vice President Richard Bruce Cheney had apologized for Iraq the way he apologized for shooting a hunting buddy?


This is the original link



[Imaginary] Transcript of Vice President Dick Cheney's interview Wednesday with Brit Hume of Fox News Channel, as released by the White House. Cheney addresses his illegal invasion of Iraq on false pretences, resulting in tens of thousands of dead.

Question: Mr. Vice President, how are the Iraqis?

Answer: Well, the good news is they are doing very well today. I talked to their leaders yesterday after they discovered how many we had killed and tortured . . . But we've stopped the very worst torture, so the reporting today is very good.

Q: How did you feel when you heard about that?

A: Well, it's a great relief. But I won't be, obviously, totally at ease until there is no torture and no one dies from US bombing raids. They are at home. They'll be in turmoil apparently, for a few more years. And the problem, obviously, is that there's always the possibility of complications in a population reduced to a very bad situation by years of sanctons.

Q: How long have you known about Iraq?

A: I first encountered it during the Gulf War, and 2003 was the first time I'd actually invaded the country.

Q: Would you describe Iraq as a close friend, friendly acquaintance, what?

A: No, I knew absolutely nothing about the place.

Q: Tell me what happened?

A: Well, basically, we were conducting an invasion late in the day ...

Q: Describe the setting.

A: It's in south Iraq near Kuwait, wide open spaces, a lot of brush cover, fairly shallow. But it's wild Iraqi conscripts. It's some of the best conscript hunting anyplace in the region. I've gone there, for years. ...

Q: How many?

A: Oh, probably 100,000 troops. We weren't all together . . .

Q: There was just two of you then?

A: Just two of us at that point. The guide or outrider between us, and of course, there's this entourage behind us, all the cars and so forth that follow me around when I'm out there. But the Baath Army flushed and went to my right, off to the west. I turned and shot at the soldiers, and at that second, saw them standing there. Didn't know they were there ...

Q: You had pulled the trigger and you saw them?

A: Well, I saw them mown down, basically. It had happened so fast.

Q: What were the Iraqis wearing?

A: They were dressed in orange, they were dressed properly, but they were also ... There was a little bit of a gully there, so they were down a little ways before land level, although I could see the upper part of their bodies when ... I didn't see it at the time I shot, until after I'd fired. And the sun was directly behind them — that affected the vision, too, I'm sure.

But the image of Iraq falling is something I'll never be able to get out of my mind. I started a war, and there's Iraqis falling in the thousands. And it was, I'd have to say, one of the worst days of my life, at that moment.

Satire

END '

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Iraqi Press Highlights for Feb. 19

Key bits of information from the Iraqi press, selected from a mass of such articles in the Foreign Broadcast Information Service report for Sunday, Feb. 19. A reader asked me if I was deliberately repositing nuggets of key information down in the text, with an eye to giving an exam later. The answer is yes, and the nation's test is coming. I'd read carefully if I were you.


Foreign Broadcast Information Service
Highlights: Iraqi Press 19 Feb 06
Iraq
Sunday, February 19, 2006

Al-Bayan carries on the front page a 250-word follow-up report citing Unified Iraqi Coalition candidate Abbas al-Bayyati confirming fruitful negotiations with Kurdistan Coalition and the coalition's persistence to retain the interior ministry. . .

Al-Bayyinah publishes on the front page a 900-word report entitled "Al-Fadilah Party Supports Al-Ja'fari, Demands Appointment of Al-Jabiri as Deputy Speaker of Parliament. . .

Al-Bayyinah publishes on the front page a 230-word report citing Talabani confirming
alliance with Unified Iraqi Coalition. . .

Al-Adalah carries on page 1 a 500-word report citing Unified Iraqi Coalition member Hamid Mu'allah al-Sa'idi commenting on a recent meeting by SCIRI to discuss the formation of the next Iraqi government. The report also cites coalition member Abbas al-Bayati saying that the coalition insists on occupying the Interior Ministry. . .

Al-Adalah runs page 6 a 700-word article by Ahmad Mahdi al-Yasiri commenting on the "suspect movements" by various Iraqi groups to "abort" the democratic process by depriving Unified Iraqi Coalition of its electoral entitlement. . .

Al-Hawzah publishes on page 1 a 100-word citing Unified Iraqi Coalition member Nasir al-Sa'idi, Al-Sadr Bloc member, saying that Al-Sadr trend followers cannot forget the "crimes" committed by Iyad Allawi against them, but will respect the coalition's decision to allow Allawi to participate in the next government. . .

Ishraqat al-Sadr runs on page 1 an 800-word editorial criticizing Iraqi political entities for being "deceived" into participating in the political process by the "false" promises of democracy and freedom. . .

Tariq al-Sha'b carries on the front page a 1,100-word report citing Jalal Talabani calling for the involvement of all winning electoral entities in the formation of the next government. The report cites reliable sources at Unified Iraqi Coalit ion saying that the formation of the next government will take a long time because Al-Ja'fari was elected as prime minister. The report cites the Rida Jawad Taqi expressing the coalition's refusal to amend the constitution. The report cites Abbas al-Bayati, Unified Iraqi Coalition, saying that negotiations with Kurdistan Coalition are being conducted and that the coalition will not give up Interior Ministry. . .

Al-Mashriq publishes on the front page a 300-word report that Al-Fadilah Party demands British forces to get out of Al-Amarah. . .

Al-Mada publishes on page 3 a 200-word report that Al-Wahdah Party has dismissed Nuri Al-Rawi for forming political blocs out of the frame of the party, during the elections. . .

Al-Furat publishes on the front page a 240-word report citing Unified Iraqi Coalition candidate Khudayyir al-Khuza'i confirming that the coalition will agree to the Russian proposal for an international conference on Iraq, if it enhances the political process. . .

Al-Furat publishes on the front page a 300-word report citing Defense Ministry Spokesman Muhammad al-Askari announcing that Iraq seeks to join NATO. . .

Al-Furat publishes on the front page a 600-word report on the survey conducted by the newspaper showing that 76 percent of polled citizens were not happy with the changes in Iraq following the downfall of the former regime. . .

Al-Furat runs on page 2 a 300-word report citing Al-Sadr aide Abd-al-Zahrah al-Suway'idi denying major changes in Al-Sadr trend's structure. . .

Al-Da'wah publishes on the front page a 200-word report citing Qasim al-Sahlani, chairman of Al-Da'wah Party, Iraq Organization's Central Bureau, calling for improved public services in Al-Sadr City. . .

Al-Da'wah runs on the front page a 300-word report citing Unified Iraqi Coalition candidate Jalal al-Din al-Saghir praising Al-Anbar tribal chiefs and emphasizing the
importance of de-Ba'thification in the next stage. . .

Al-Da'wah publishes on the front page a 250-word report on the demonstration organized by Al-Sadr trend in Diyala and Al-Nasiriyah to protest the insulting cartoons.

Al-Da'wah runs on the front page a 300-word report citing Sadr al-Din al-Qubbanchi, SCIRI leader in Al-Najaf and imam of Imam Ali holy shrine, condemning the mistreatment of Iraqi detainees by US and British forces.

Al-Da'wah publishes on page 3 a 300-word report citing SCIRI leader Ammar al-Hakim condemning Prophet Muhammad's cartoons during Friday's prayer sermon in Buratha Mosque in Baghdad.

Al-Da'wah publishes on page 5 a 600-word column by Rasim Qasim calling for the expulsion of Mujahidin-e-Khalq Organization from Iraq.

Al-Bayyinah publishes on the front page a 100-word report citing well-informed sources confirming that Al-Ja'fari demanded Britain to hand over Iraqi detainees, through British Ambassador Patey. . .

Al-Bayyinah carries on the front page a 130-word report entitled "Diyala Tribal Chiefs Refuse To Attend Mujahidin-e-Khalq's Conference. . .

Al-Mashriq publishes on the front page a 500-word report citing Sayyid Muqtada Al-Sadr confirming that relations between Iraq and Jordan are good but the west is "trying to create sedition between them." Al-Sadr was also quoted as saying upon his arrival in Amman on Thursday, that his party's participation in the Iraqi government will pave the way towards "the withdrawal of occupation forces from Iraq." . .

Al-Zaman carries on page 2 a 250-word report saying that a meeting was held in Tikrit recommending that the responsibility of security in Balad will be handed over to Iraqis next month . . .

Al-Zaman carries on page 4 a 400-word citing Iraqi social and economic circles calling on Interior and Defense Ministries to exert efforts to reveal the abduction of Businessman Ghalib Abd-al-Husayn Kubbah and his son. The report cites industry and minerals minister confirming the importance of the private sector in developing the industrial sector. The report cites the ministry's Undersecretary Sami al-A'raji saying that investment opportunities have been agreed upon with Iran in seven big projects.

Dar al-Salam carries on page 2 a 75-word report that US planes raided a village in Al-Yusifiyah. The report adds that unidentified gunmen assassinated a doctor at Al-Hawijah Hospital . . .

Al-Furat runs on page 2 a 160-word report citing Al-Amal Women's Association Chairman Hana Idwar praising Talabani for his recent call for a larger role for Iraqi women in the government.

Al-Furat carries on page 2 a 700-word column by Khalid Isa Taha on the problems faced by Iraqi children due to lack of security and basic public services. . .

Al-Da'wah carries on page 3 a 1,500-word report citing citizens complaining about high prices and deteriorating services in private clinics. . .

Tariq al-Sha'b carries on page 2 a 200-word report on a statement by Health Professions Association calling for a sit-in today, 19 February. . .

Al-Manarah carries on the front page and on page 6 a 250-word report saying that doctors and pharmacists in Mosul staged a demonstration threatening a civil rebellion if the government does not protect them. The report cites eyewitnesses saying that unidentified gunmen assassinated inspection director of banks in the north. . .

Al-Mashriq publishes on the front page a report on the execution of 200,000 birds in Dahuk to prevent bird flu . . .

Al-Furat carries on page 10 a 1,200-word report on the advantages and drawbacks of Iraq's current open and unrestricted import policy.

Al-Bayan runs on page 4 a 1,300-word report on the problems faced by postgraduate students in Iraq . . .

Al-Da'wah runs on the front page a 100-word report citing Oil Ministry Spokesman Asim Jihad denying that the ministry is planning to annul previous contracts. . .

Al-Bayyinah devotes all of page 5 to a report on deteriorating public and health services in Hay Tariq district in Baghdad. . .

Al-Adalah carries on page 3 a 300-word report citing Displacement and Migration Minister Suhaylah Abd Ja'far commenting on the efforts to provide houses for displaced Iraqis.

Al-Sabah al-Jadid runs on page 1 a 300-word report citing a source at Finance Ministry denying the news that the ministry is behind the current fuel crisis, and saying that the ministry has "fulfilled its financial obligations" towards the Oil Ministry.

Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 5 a 1,000-word report on the fuel crisis.

Al-Sabah al-Jadid runs on page 5 an 800-word report on fuel crisis in Mosul Governor
ate.

Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 10 a 2,000-word report on the negative influence of migration of Iraqis [abroad] on the Iraqi economy. . .

Al-Mashriq publishes on page 4 a 400-word report citing Ministry of Trade announcing that it has no intention to cancel the food rationing system. . .

Al-Furat publishes on page 11 a 1,700-word unattributed report entitled "Crime of the Century, How a 7,000 Year Old Civilization Disappeared?"Al-Furat carries on page 11 a 700-word unattributed report entitled "Who looted Baghdad's museum?" . . .

Al-Hawzah runs on page 2 a 900-word article by Ali Qasim Mahdi discussing the "negative" role of United States in establishing democracy in Iraq. Al-Hawzah publishes on page 8 a 600-word article by Abd-al-Karim Abd-al-Hamid commenting on the "atrocities" committed by British "crusaders" against Iraqis, and calling on Al-Sadr trend followers to rise against the British troops. Al-Hawzah carries on page 8 a 600-word article by Dr Nadia Shkarah commenting on the deterioration in security, economic, and political situations in Iraq. . .

Ishraqat al-Sadr runs on page 6 a 2,000-word article by Dr Adil Rida discussing the role of United States and the clash between Iraqi political and sectarian groups in leading Iraq toward "chaos." The writer suggests establishing a religious state in Iraq to end this. '

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Sunday, February 19, 2006

20 Dead in Bombings, Gunfights Including GI

Guerrillas set off several bombs in Baghdad on Saturday, targetting policemen. They also bombed Tikrit, Baqubah and Fallujah. Deaths in these bombings and in other gunfights came to at least 20. One American soldier was among those killed. Four bodies of persons killed execution-style showed up in Baghdad streets, probably the victims of sectarian reprisal killings.

Guerrilla attacks and sabotage cost the Iraqi petroleum industry $6.25 billion in lost revenues in 2005. They launched 186 assaults on petroleum facilities, killing 47 engineers & technicians & workers, along with 100 police guarding pipelines and other installations. The guerrillas directed most of the sabotage and attacks at the northern facilities centered at Kirkuk. They took offline some 400,000 barrels a day. Iraq only produced an average of 1.8 million barrels a day in 2005, mostly from the southern Rumaila fields and exported through the southern port of Basra. This amount was down from 2.8 million barrels a day before the 2003 Bush invasion of the country. (The US press continues to give the average production in 2005 as "about 2 million" barrels a day, magically adding an imaginary 200,000 barrels a day to the real average. At $65 a barrel, that is $13 million at day! I'd suggest they stop rounding up in this case.)

Guerrillas are undermining US overtures to Sunni clan leaders in Ramadi and government officials in Anbar province by killing them or their relatives.

As regular readers know, I find the idea that a large coalition of Kurds, Sunnis, Secularists and religious Shiites could be formed that outmaneuvered the United Iraqi Alliance implausible. It would require that secular Kurds dedicated to taking over Kurkuk cooperate with fundamentalist Sunni Arabs only one step away from al-Qaeda (and who object to Kirkuk joining Kurdistan) and with unreconstructed Baathists. That would go over well in Halabja. And then they have to draw in a big bloc of religious Shiites, as well. If all Sunni Arabs and all Kurds voted together with the Allawi list,they'd need some 45 Shiites to defect to have the 2/3s needed to elect a president.[revised 2/19/06].

I can't imagine in what universe Saleh Mutlak, the Baathist with 11 seats, dreams of marginalizing the religious Shiites (130 seats) and installing Iyad Allawi (with 25 seats) as prime minister! Except as a way of putting pressure on Ibrahim Jaafari to compromise on some issues, I can't even imagine why anyone takes this talk seriously.

The intrepid Nir Rosen profiles the Jordanian jihadis.
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Muqtada al-Sadr on Aljazeera
"Ready to attack the Americans if they Attack Iran or Syria"
"In a Democratic Iraq, Kurds will not need Own Region"


Muqtada al-Sadr gave an extended interview on Saturday on Aljazeera, which I am going to blog here. What follows is a quick paraphrase of the interview done while watching it.

He began by explaining to the interviewer what was meant by the "Sadr Movement," which he said is not a political party. He described it as simply consisting of anyone who strictly follows [yuqallid] the teachings of Ayatollah Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr (d. 1999), Muqtada's father (known as "the second martyr"). He said that in a wider sense, anyone who honored the "Speaking Hawzah" or religious authority, including those who follow Ayatollah Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr (d. 1980) ("the first martyr"), could be counted as part of the Sadr Movement. They call for the Islamization of society and the spread of Islam in the world, so that it will become a base for the advent of the Imam Mahdi [the Muslim messiah to come at the end of time].

[Since Muhammad Baqir was a major theorist of the Dawa Party, Muqtada by including both figures is suggesting that all Da`wa Party members are also a kind of Sadrist, thus greatly expanding the scope of the movement. The Sadrists make a distinction between the "Speaking Hawzah", which comprises ayatollahs who speak truth to power, and the "Silent Hawzah," which consists of Shiite clerics who stick to religion and are too timid to enter politics.]

He distinguished between the Speaking religious authority and the silent religious authority in the time of Saddam. He pointed out that the Sadrists held Friday prayers in the time of the Dictator [Saddam], while others said they were not necessary under conditions of tyranny. [This is a dig at Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, who was known to be cautious under Saddam.] Muqtada says with pride that he continues to hold Friday prayers in Kufa, and now those who once said they were unnecessary have begun holding them again. But the Speaking religious authority has been consistent.

Muqtada says that the Sadr Movement has passed through three stages of resistance [to the American occupation of Iraq]. The first was peaceful resistance (demonstrations). The second was military resistance. And the third and present stage is political resistance. He admits that the religious authority [Sistani et al.] when it called for political participation in January 2005 was engaged in political resistance, since Iraqi voters going to the polls was seen as a prologue to the departure of occupation troops from Iraq. Thus, he suggests, the Sadr Movement has its own rhythm and tactics, but that does not define the present religious leadership as a Silent authority. [The interviewer is attempting to get Muqtada to differentiate the Sadrists as the speakers from Sistani and colleagues as silent, but Muqtada dodged that question.]

Muqtada defends having tried all three tactics to get the ocupiers out, each in accordance with the specific requirements of the time. He denied the interviewer's implication that Sistani had been right to go for political resistance all along, and Muqtada had finally caught up with him. Muqtada says that he has knocked at every door, and that if he had begun with the political, he would be being asked why he never tried the military option. He admits that the latter failed, but says that it paved the way for the next, political, stage.

Pressed as to whether the military stage is over completely, Muqtada replies that it is. He says that the Sadr Movement is committed to a political struggle to see that the foreign military occupation ends. "Whether it is an immediate or a gradual withdrawal, that is a matter for discussion," he adds. [This is significant. It is the first time I can remember Muqtada even entertaining the option of a gradual timetable for US withdrawal. -JC]

Muqtada says that the goal of the Sadr Movement is the creation of an Islamic society. "For an 'Islamic government' without an Islamic society cannot in any way be considered actually an Islamic government." He rejects any separation of religion and state. "I say that religion is complete and all-encompassing, extending to politics." Since religion issues from God, who is perfect and complete, religion itself must be complete, and therefore must encompass all aspects of life. Religion is a part of politics, but politics must not dictate religion.

The interviewer says that the United Iraqi Alliance, supported by Sistani, was criticized by many for removing the element of political competition and choice from the public by depending on a religious instruction. The interviewer mentions Iyad Allawi as one of these critics. Muqtada instists that there is political competition, and that not everyone even follows the same grand ayatollah. He says that competition has to be for service to the Iraqi people, not for private benefit. [This is a slam at Allawi, whose government is accused of being extremely corrupt, with billions embezzled by some ministers.]

Muqtada says that he is not himself interested in holding political office. He says that each member of parliament represents all Iraqis. He says he only offers advice to the Sadrist bloc in parliament, which is responsible to the Iraqi people generally.

The thirty Sadrist delegates must follow their own conscience. He said that each of the Sadrist MPs was free to support either Ibrahim Jaafari or Adil Abdul Mahdi. the important things was that they should support someone who insists on the departure of the occupation army.

[Is Muqtada letting it slip that Ibrahim Jaafari gave the Sadrists private assurances that he would work toward withdrawal of US troops from Iraq?]

He says that last year he gathered 130 signatures from parliamentarians asking for a US withdrawal.

Muqtada says that one basis for the closeness between the Sadr representatives and Jaafari was that Jaafari had demanded the release of imprisoned Sadrists.

The interviewer asks him if by entering the United Iraqi Alliance he hasn't given up a pan-Islamic identification in favor of being known as a Shiite leader. He replies that he is honored to be a follower of the Prophet and of Ali b. Abi Talib, and that he did not want to introduce a division into the ranks of the Shiites. He therefore joined with the UIA to maintain Shiite unity. How the Sadrists got elected, however, does not dictate whom they represent. Each parliamentarian, he says, represents all Iraqis, and can serve Sunnis and Christians and Turkmen as well as Shiites. He asks that the Sadrist MPs cooperate with Sunnis and Kurds, with all forces who want the independence of Iraq, as long as they are not either Baathists [he then corrects himself and says 'Saddamists'--suggesting that he might in fact cooperate with mere Baathists] or takfiris [i.e. hardline Salafis who say that Shiites are not really Muslims at all].

Asked why he doesn't meet with the Sunni politicians, Muqtada says that he is stuck in Kufa for reasons of security and does not have the luxury of visits to Baghdad to consult politicians there. But he says he is allied with Sunni politicians who demand the withdrawal of the occupiers and the trial of Saddam.

He says that by an end to occupation and an opposition to the presence of foreign troops, he does not just mean US troops. He rejects Arab League troops, as well, saying that they would be even worse. Such a situation, he warns, might lead to Muslim on Muslim violence, which would be the worst possible outcome.

He implies that the US is not allowing the Iraqi police and army to strengthen themselves and is blocking their acquisition of heavy weaponry so as to make its own presence seem necessary. He says that Iraq is capable of defending itself if properly armed.

He calls Abu Musab al-Zarqawi an imaginary figure, and says that he is a dagger in the hands of America. He says there are three such intertwining threats, the occupiers, the takfiris [excommunicators] and the Saddamis.

He is asked about the Iranian demand that British troops leave Basra. Muqtada replies that this does not concern him. He says what is important is that the fate of the Iraqi teenagers beaten by British troops be determined. Are they even alive? Then he says, the troops must be investigated. There must be investigations also of Abu Ghraib and the prison at Mosul where Iraqis have been tortured.

He says that the Mahdi Army is still present in Iraq, but has become a "cultural army" rather than a military one, and is serving the Iraqi people in various ways. He says that it is the "base" of the Imam Mahdi and that such a base for the promised one cannot be abolished. He denies that Ayatollah Kadhim al-Ha'iri or Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani asked him to dissolve it. [Elsewhere he had acknowledged that al-Ha'iri [Haeri] had been indicated by his father as the source of relgious-legal guidance for Sadrists, but he says that the Sadr Movement has other dimensions and that he does not mean to take away from the principle that each Shiite must follow the legal rulings of a great ayatollah.]

He says that he advises the Sadrists in parliament to seek as cabinet posts those that involve service to the people. He is especially interested in the ministry of electricity going to a Sadrist.

He denies that he opposes the principle of provincial confederacies and loose federalism. In fact, he says, it is a principle approved by the Prophet Muhammad. He is worried, however, that establishing this sort of federalism under foreign military occupation could lead to a very bad outcome. One is that there is a danger that the foreigners will take advantage of it to partition Iraq. They will also just take advantage to intervene more heavily in Iraqi affairs. And if there were a partition, he asks, what would happen to the Turkmen or the Christians or the Sabeans (groups too small to have their on provincial confederacies). He says he opposes sectarian confederacies and rejects the idea of a big Shiite provincial confederacy in the south of the country.

Asked about Kirkuk, Muqtada says that the Kurdistan Confederacy was established in the north because of the then dictatorship. He says that when the foreign occupation ends, and a democratic state is established in Iraq, with freedom of belief and freedom of peoples, there will be no reason to maintain a separate provincial confederacy. And it won't need to demand Kirkuk. Kirkuk belongs to all of Iraq and all must equally benefit from it. He suggests that it be kept as a province and an example of communal harmony, rather than being partitioned by ethnic group.

As for his recent visits to neighboring heads of state, he argues that the US has attempted to create tensions between Iraq and each of its neighbors. Muqtada says that he urged the neighboring heads of state to be balanced in their statements. He says that Iran must not be a partisan of the Shiites, but must rather help all Muslims. There should be no fear of a Shiite crescent, and no fear of a Sunni triangle. All must live peaceably alongside one another.

Asked where he stands in the conflict between the United States on the one side and Iran and Syria on the other, and what he would do if open conflict broke out, Muqtada replied "I am in the service of Islam. Whatever they need in their difficulties, I will provide it. . . I will defend all Islamic and Arab states." But, he said, he would have to be asked by those states to intervene. He wouldn't just volunteer to do it whether they wanted it or not. That, he said, is what is wrong with volunteers coming to Iraq unasked to fight the occupation, and then staying to kill Iraqi civilians.

What, he is asked, if Iran or Syria requested that he help them by attacking American troops inside Iraq. He replies, "If I have the capability, I will do it. I am here to serve Islam. Why wouldn't I do them this favor?"

He says he hopes that the Muslims states will stand by Hamas and help form a Palestinian state with sovereignty. He complains that in the past some Muslim powers have not served the Palestinians well. He says he hopes the Palestinians will be enabled to build their state.

Asked about the trial of Saddam, Muqtada says that his greatest fear is that the trial will be conducted in such a way that he will be found innocent. He says that whoever was killed in Iraq was killed by Saddam, directly or indirectly. He killed Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr with his own hands, but killed Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr through others. He deserves death.

On the Danish caricatures of the Prophet, Muqtada says that the reaction has been a spontaneous reaction of the outraged masses. It is an assault not by Christians but by Crusaders against Islam. We want, he says, a condemnation of Bush's solidarity with Denmark over this issue. He recalls the outcry and solidarity against Malaysian Prime Minister Mohammad Mahathir when he made remarks interpreted as antisemitic. Why is there not now a similar outcry and solidarity with Muslims over these bigotted caricatures? There should be a bigger outcry, Muqtada says.

Al-Zaman reports on some of Muqtada al-Sadr's other comments in Amman, where he will meet Sunday with Jordan's King Abdullah II, after having held talks on Saturday with Jordan's Prime Minister, Ma`ruf al-Bakhit. It reports, Muqtada al-Sadr said that he does not intend at the present time to establish any relationship with the United States before it withdraws its troops from Iraq. He explained in comments distributed on Saturday in Ammand that the Sadr Movement Will have no relations with Washington "unless it withdraws from our land, or sets a timetable for withdrawal."

Al-Sadr warned against a civil war in Iraq, but affirmed that he is sure that the Iraqi people will not fall into a protracted internal struggle. He denied that growing Iranian influence in the country is the only threat it faces, saying that the menace of neighboring powers using Iraq for their own purposes is present on all sides. He called on Iraq's neighbors to cooperate with Iraq rather than intervening in it.

Hamza Hendawi explores the continued anti-Americanism of Muqtada al-Sadr, as expressed in his trips to Damascus and Amman.

Liz Sly of the Chicago Tribune examines the position of Muqtada in Iraqi politics now that his supporters played such a central role in choosing Ibrahim Jaafari as candidate for prime minister. She points to his commitment to a strong central government and his deep dislike of former interim prime minister Iyad Allawi.

Cole: Muqtada hates Iyad Allawi on many grounds (he is an ex-Baathist who organized Baath officers for a coup against Saddam), but most of all because Allawi is known to have wanted to send a SWAT team into the shrine of Ali at Najaf in August 2004 to attempt to kill Muqtada and his key aides, even at the risk of destroying the shrine. Cooler heads (especially Sistani's) prevailed.

On the other hand, Muqtada has no difficulty dealing with Dulaimi's Iraqi Accord Front, the Sunni religious parties; many of them had also been on the outs with Saddam.

The Da`wa Party has long been dedicated to a unified central government. In 1996 in London Da`wa left Chalabi's Iraqi National Congress because Chalabi accepted in principle the Kurdistan model for Iraq, of loose federalism and provincial confederacies.

One dimension that Sly doesn't deal with is the provincial politics. SCIRI tends to be the leading party in 9 of the 11 provinces where there are substantial Shiite populations, including in the South. A system where provincial governments own new oil finds and their profits is a system that funnels billions to SCIRI. Muqtada only has Maysan province, so far not rich in such resources. It isn't that Muqtada is defending Baghdad interests per se. SCIRI rules Baghdad. It is that he heads a movement, not a party, and so far has been outmaneuvered in provincial politics by the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq. For the moment at least, Muqtada is likely to have more influence on and gain more resources from the federal government than from the provincial governments. The opposite is true for SCIRI.

Muqtada has other constituencies that drive him in this direction. About half the Turkmen, including a lot in Kirkuk, are Shiite and were recruited into Sadrism by Muqtada's father. They hate the Kurdish model, and Muqtada tries to be a player up north.

Likewise, Muqtada wants to pick up disgruntled Sunni fundamentalists in places like Anbar, who also hate the loose federalism model.
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Saturday, February 18, 2006

Iranians Demand British Withdrawal from Basra

Bombs in Baghdad and Yusufiyah; reprisal killings in Baghdad; and major pipeline sabotage targeting fuel supplies to the capital. Also, the audacious kidnapping of one of the wealthiest bankers in Iraq which leaves 5 of his bodyguards dead.

Al-Zaman / AFP report that guerrillas fired five rockets at the biggest US base in Anbar province (Sunni, western Iraq). An ex-Baathist and his son were assassinated in Mosul.


Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki [Muttaqi] called Friday for Britain to withdraw its troops from the southern Iraqi city of Basra (pop. 1.3 million), which is only 20 miles from the Iranian border. UK Prime Minister Tony Blair rejected the call, saying that the British were in Basra at the invitation of the Iraqi government and as authorized by a United Nations Security Council resolution. (Blair, who tossed the UNSC in the trash can when it suited him before the war, obviously has no shame).

Nadim al-Jabiri of the Basra provincial council said that the British troops were still needed for the moment. But it is not clear that he was speaking for a majority on the council, since it is currently boycotting the British.

Al-Zaman [Ar.] reports that Mutakki also called on the new Iraqi government to demand an immediate departure of US troops.

Sabrina Tavernise of the NYT shows that Sunni-Shiite intermarriage in Baghdad has fallen from 3-5% in 2002 to virtually 0% today, as sectarian rancor has increased and broken up past such marriages.
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Friday, February 17, 2006

Further Abu Ghraib Photos
US Constitution RIP


Salon.com has gotten hold of a complete set of images of torture from Abu Ghraib. This is the material that the US government has been declining to release. The pictures are not of new abuse, though it is clear that many of the same sorts of torture as were pictured in 2003 have continued-- including stress positions, hooding, etc.

Meanwhile, the United Nations Commission on Human Rights has called on the United States to try the detainees at Guantanamo or release them, rejecting the notion that they can simply be held extrajudicially forever.

Sort of sad that the rest of the world has to lecture us about things that at least used to be in our own constitution.



'Amendment V

No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a grand jury, except in cases arising in the land or naval forces, or in the militia, when in actual service in time of war or public danger; nor shall any person be subject for the same offense to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb; nor shall be compelled in any criminal case to be a witness against himself, nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation.

Amendment VI

In all criminal prosecutions, the accused shall enjoy the right to a speedy and public trial, by an impartial jury of the state and district wherein the crime shall have been committed, which district shall have been previously ascertained by law, and to be informed of the nature and cause of the accusation; to be confronted with the witnesses against him; to have compulsory process for obtaining witnesses in his favor, and to have the assistance of counsel for his defense.

Amendment VIII

Excessive bail shall not be required, nor excessive fines imposed, nor cruel and unusual punishments inflicted. '


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Iraq Seethes over Abu Ghraib
11 Dead, 30 Wounded in guerrilla Violence


Three major bombings in Baghdad and shootings there and elsewhere killed 11 persons in Iraq on Thursday and left 30 wounded.

Bush is seeking another $68 billion for Iraq (and a little for Afghanistan). This thing is costing each American thousands of dollars. And it is certainly making the US less secure over time.
Bush's terrorism incubator in Iraq has already produced an increase in the sophistication of guerrilla attacks in Afghanistan. Now UPI says that the more canny techniques are even showing up among rebels in southern Thailand! The world will be living with the aftermath of Fallujah and Abu Ghraib for decades.

Iraqis are livid about the new Abu Ghraib photos that have surfaced.

The elected governor of Maysan province [Ar.] has filed a court case against the British soldiers who were depicted in a video beating Iraqi teenagers who had attacked their barracks.

Tom Lasseter reports on the lack of progress the US military has made in fighting the "insurgency" in Samarra, a largely Sunni Arab city north of Baghdad. I think we may conclude that this lack of "progress" derives from most people in Samarra being "insurgents" or the cousins of "insurgents."

After the revelation of new photos of torture from Abu Ghraib, the Iraqi Human Rights minister is demanding that the US turn over control of all prisons in Iraq to Iraqis.

But after the revelations about Shiite death squads inside the Iraqi police, the Americans think it is the Iraqi prison and police system that needs American supervision.

Reuters reports that a new Iraqi government is unlikely to be formed any time soon, since there will be difficult negotiations over key ministries, and since the Americans have inserted themselves into the negotiations.

The NYT reports on the rising political power of nationalist young Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who swung the prime minister position to Ibrahim Jaafari of the Dawa Party. Muqtada has a complex relationship to Iran, resenting Iranian influence in Iraqi Shiite Islam, but pledging to defend Iran from any American attack.
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Thursday, February 16, 2006

New Abu Ghuraib Photos Published
Bombs in Baghdad


A series of bombings killed at least 8 persons and wounded over a dozen in Baghdad on Wednesday. Four guerrillas were killed in running street battles with US forces. Four bodies showing signs of torture were discovered in the Shula district of the capital.

The revelation of previously unreleased pictures of torture by Americans from Abu Ghraib prison is worsening US relations with Muslim publics. Some of these pictures show corpses.

Paul Rogers argues that Iraq is a great gift to al-Qaeda, providing jihadis with a perfect urban training ground.

Iraq's human rights minister, a Kurdish woman from her name, wants at least lower-level officials of the Interior and Justice ministries prosecuted over the secret prisons and torture discovered last summer.

Kathleen Ridolfo of the Voice of America does a good round-up of the reaction to the selection of Ibrahim Jaafari as the candidate for prime minister of the religious Shiite United Iraqi Alliance. The upshot is that the Americans don't like it. The Kurds don't like it. The Sunni Arabs think they probably won't like it. The Americans and the Kurds still hope somehow to shoehorn secular ex-Baathist and old-time CIA asset Iyad Allawi into a position of power, even though his list received only 9 percent of seats.

Jaafari's program right now appears to be to form a more inclusive government and to demand more ministerial accountability.

The bad news is that the English service of the Voice of America is set to be virtually abolished by the Bush administration. Because now is a time that the US just does not need public diplomacy, apparently.

Most of the Japanese Self Defense Force troops in Iraq will be withdrawn by May. They were working on things like water purification in the southern Shiite city of Samawah. Now that the British and Australians are withdrawing from Samawah in favor of local security forces, the Japanese have decided they are too exposed to remain. Samawah security is probably run by elements from the Badr Corps, the Iran-trained paramilitary.
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