With a Whimper, not a Bang; A Milestone on the Way to the End of American Iraq

T.S. Eliot wrote at the end of "Hollow Men" in 1926, "This is the way the world ends/ Not with a bang but a whimper." He may as well have been talking about the war George W. Bush launched in Iraq in 2003.

The end of routine, independent patrolling of major Iraqi cities by US troops today is a major milestone in modern Iraqi history.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki declared Tuesday "National Sovereignty Day." Some 86 US bases have been closed in recent weeks (see the Jim Muir report). The LAT says that on Monday night, people in Baghdad danced in the streets, sang and set off (non-lethal) fireworks even in the midst of a dust storm.

Some Americans might find all this celebrating offensive. But the US public has mostly moved on, little interested in the foreign wars its armed forces are still fighting, and worried much more about the long-term consequences of the Republican Party's Ponzi-scheme economy of 2001-2008, the collapse of which has cost them or their family and friends their jobs. As in the 1930s, even celebrity gossip and the glitz of Hollywood are more present in people's minds than distant armies on the march. The public and the mass media mysteriously ignored the Afghanistan War right from 2002, and now Iraq is being given the same treatment, even though there are 130,000 or so US troops in Iraq and 38,000 in Afghanistan, and both contingents are still fighting and dying.

The end of US patrolling should neither be exaggerated nor downplayed as a turning point. Of course, US troops will still be in Iraqi streets from time to time, accompanying Iraqi forces. Special Operations teams will likely engage in surgical strikes in coordination with their Iraqi colleagues for years to come.

But there is an essential difference between such occasional interventions of a collaborative sort and routine patrols by a foreign military of densely populated urban areas in an Arab, Muslim country. The latter is viewed as a form of neo-colonialism by most Iraqis. The former could be welcome if it adds to law and order.

I was talking to a US military officer who had been in Baghdad in December, and he told me that he thought that Iraqi troops were now capable of patrolling independently, something he would not have said a year or two earlier. If they get into trouble, he said, they stand and fight. They still have poor logistical support. If the firefight lasts 5 hours rather than one hour, they might be in trouble because no one is bringing them ammunition and water. Az-Zaman writes in Arabic that the governor of Najaf remarked Sunday that US troops would still provide logistical support to Iraqi ones, despite the end of routine American patrols.

The Iraqi military has been setting up extra patrols and checkpoints in preparation for the cessation of American patrols. The az-Zaman article cited above speaks of some mysteries, including the incarceration of dozens of Iraqis in the provinces. And there is the sudden release of a major Mahdi Army militia commander. Is Washington trying to cut a deal as it leaves?

That the Iraqi military has experienced a sudden increase in efficiency is attested by relatively successful campaigns in 2008 against the Mahdi Army Shiite militia in Basra, Amara, Nasiriya, and Sadr City (East Baghdad). Security appears tangibly to have improved in the south in the aftermath. Still, of course the Iraqi police and other security forces have a long way to go toward professionalism.

Aljazeera English has video on the constant threat to police from guerrillas:



Of course, the operations in Basra and east Baghdad succeeded in part because the US air force gave the Iraqi military close air support. That is another way that the US is not just vanishing from Iraq. Iraq does not have an air force and will not have one for something close to a decade, and its government wants the US to act as a surrogate Iraqi air force for the time being. Note, however, that such air support can be proffered from al-Udeid base in Qatar. It does not require a base inside Iraq.

More US troops will be withdrawn, though Gen. Ray Odierno wants to have a big enough force in January to help provide security for the parliamentary elections that month. I think there is some fear that if US troops are not sufficient in number to help lock down the country for the elections, that paucity of troops may encourage Sunni Arab radicals to disrupt the balloting with massive car bombings. Moreover, there is a danger of Iranian hard liners trying to steal the Iraqi elections, as a repeat performance of what happened in Iran on June 12, by using petrodollars to buy votes for their hard line Shiite allies.

In the medium term, the bombings by Sunni Arab guerrilla groups who cannot reconcile to the Shiite- and Kurdish-led new government, will likely continue. It is not clear, however, that such bombings can actually undermine the new government or force a radical change. If they cannot, they are useless.

The end of major US combat operations, prematurely announced by Bush on the USS Lincoln in 2003, may finally be at hand. Iraq faces many challenges going forward. Corruption is almost crippling for reconstruction. There has been little political reconciliation. Guerrillas are still deadly, as are sectarian militias. An Arab-Kurdish struggle over oil-rich Kirkuk of some ferocity could break out at any time. Increasingly, however, these problems will have to be dealt with by the new Iraqi elite itself.

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Sunday's Protest March Broken Up; Rafsanjani Defers to Khamenei

The phase of mass protest in the aftermath of the controversial election results of June 12 has drawn to a close for the moment. Movement activists can no longer put tens of thousands of protesters in the street because the security forces are too well organized and too loyal to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to allow it. Opposition leader Mir Hosain Mousavi has been increasingly indecisive on tactics even if he has been steadfast in demanding a rematch with incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

AP reports that the march for Mir Hosain Mousavi on Shariati Street by some 3,000 activists was violently repressed by the security forces, despite its having been a legal procession in part commemorating the killing in 1981 of revolutionary founding father Mohammad Beheshti (see below). Police used tear gas and clubs to disperse the marchers, attacking them and in some case breaking bones. The demonstrators had been chanting "where's my vote?" and some were wearing green, the symbolic color of the Mousavi movement. They also by their chants tied Mir Hosain Mousavi to Imam Hosain, the grandson of the Prophet Muhmmad, who was killed by the repressive Umayyad government in 680 CE. The implication is that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is the equivalent of the Umayyad Caliph Yazid, who is despised by Shiite Muslims as the author of the martyrdom of Imam Hosain.

Opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi himself had joined in the march on Sunday.

The European Union condemned Iran for detaining 8 Iranian employees of the British Embassy on charges that they were involved in fomenting the post-election protests-- charges that the British government vehemently denied.

Reuters reports that late Sunday some of the embassy personnel were released.

In a bad sign for Mousavi, his ally former president Akbar Hashimi Rafsanjani appeared to desert him on Sunday. The USG Open Source Center translates from official Iranian radio:

'FYI -- Iran: Rafsanjani Cites 'Complicated Plots,' Calls for 'Solidarity'
Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Document Type: OSC Summary

Tehran Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1 in Persian at 1630 GMT on 28 June broadcast its scheduled newscast, which included an item on remarks by Ayatollah Hashemi-Rafsanjani, Chairman of the Expediency Council, in a meeting the families of the "martyrs" of the 7 Tir incident, that is 28 June 1981, when the head of Judiciary and some other officials were killed in a bomb blast.

Rafsanjani referred to the recent incidents after the results of the presidential elections, saying: "The incidents were the results of complicated plots by obscure sources with the aim of creating separation and differences between the people and the system. And with the aim of making the people distrust the Islamic system."
He said Ayatollah Khamene'i's expedience in extending the deadline by the Guardian Council for a better study of the issues and providing convincing explanations and clearing any doubts was a very valuable measure. He added: "In my opinion, the recent order by the leadership was one of the very valuable decisions he made. That is he asked the Guardian Council to extend the legal time, which was over, to study the complaints. And a group was appointed to help the Guardian Council with this regard."

Rafsanjani said: "We should all make a step with cooperation and solidarity to remove the obstacles and solve the problems." He also said: "We should always end the election results with solidarity. If every election would result in discord - we have an election once a year - and there would be hatred and fighting, then there will be nothing left." . .

(Description of Source: Tehran Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1 in Persian -- state-run television) '

Rafsanjani has clearly decided to defer to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on handling the outcome of the elections, and has come out as critical of the crowd politics and occasional turbulence they produced. As a multi-billionaire and man of the establishment, he may well have been frightened that the massive street rallies for Mousavi a week ago signalled a danger to the status quo, which he is attempting to preserve. From Rafsanjani's point of view, Khamenei, Ahmadinejad and others have been making a slow-motion coup, reducing the sigificance and openness of the of the system by excluding the reformists from running for office. Wanting to go back to 1997 is not the same as wanting a revolution.

On the other hand, Grand Ayatollah Bayyat Zanjani issued a statement defending the right of the protesters to rally peacefully and condemning the violent crackdown on them. There are nearly 30 grand ayotallahs in the Shiite world, the majority of them resident in the holy city of Qom in Iran. Despite their lack of political power, they could be influential in determing how the public remembers the election and what aspirations Iranians have for the future.

The real victors of a successful squelching of the protest movement would be the Revolutionary Guards, who have been making a hard line slow-motion coup for some time.

Dilip Hiro explains the background of the current events and concludes that Iran's regime has moved in an authoritarian direction, raising questions about whether a fundamentalist Muslim movement is compatible with democracy.

Middle East Report has a substantial overview of the Iran crisis and its historical roots.

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Moaddel Guest Op-Ed: Iran’s Crisis and the U.S. Option: Support Mousavi now or fight Ahmadinejad tomorrow

Mansoor Moaddel writes in a guest editorial for IC:

The current civil uprising in Iran reflects not just a protest against a rigged election. Nor is it primarily a symptom of contentions for power or clashes between opposing perspectives on the nature of the Islamic regime. It is, rather, resistance against a political coup, whose engineers plan to impose a Taliban-style Islamic government on Iran. The coup has been organized by an alliance between the supreme leader and the most militant and fundamentalist faction within the ruling establishment, backed by the Revolutionary Guard.

The political attitudes of one of its most notorious ideologues, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, demonstrates the danger Iranians and the world would be facing should this militant faction get its way. Mesbah Yazdi does not believe in the republican aspects of the Islamic regime, but rather views Islamic law as supreme and must be unquestionably followed. The supreme leader, he says, is not elected but rather discovered by the clerics. For him, Ayatollah Khamenei is the exemplar of such a leader. He has characterized the ideas of representative government and legislative functions as belong to the decadent system of Western liberalism. He has likened reformist ideas to the AIDS virus. He has publically endorsed the construction of a nuclear bomb.

These ideas have much appeal for Ahmadinejad, who claims that the past governments were corrupt and deviated from the Islamic path. Some of the former leaders, people like Rafsanjani and Natiq Nouri, have abandoned the ideals of the revolution. Ahmadinejad argues that for the sake of Islam, such individuals must be sacrificed and the society must be restored to the principles of the Islamic revolution. Under his presidency, be claims, this restoration has been launched, ushering a new beginning for a truly Islamic state in Iran.

Ahmadinejad’s deeds are Islamic extremism in action. He has already restricted the freedom of Iranian citizens, expanded men’s authority over women, increased political persecution, undermined the rights of religious and ethnic minorities, and supported terrorism and political adventurism abroad. He has also recruited members of the Revolutionary Guard to fill key governmental positions and awarded them lucrative government-sponsored projects. These actions, and his administration’s economic mismanagement, promoted the formation of a broad coalition in Iran comprised of reformist politicians, conservative pragmatists, and ordinary citizens representing the majority of the Iranian public.

Realizing the growing strength of this coalition in the run up to the election, the Revolutionary Guard acted to stifle the movement and the ruling party awarded itself a landslide victory – an uncontestable mandate for four more years of growing religious extremism and global isolationism.

The outcome of the current civil uprising is certainly consequential for the development of democracy in Iran. It has also far reaching implications for regional stability, international peace efforts, and the security of the United States. At this point, the regime cannot secure its rule without unleashing a reign of terror. And if this coup succeeds, the regime will forge ahead with its expressed plans for nuclear development and support for religious extremism abroad.
It would be a mistake to think that people like Ahmadinejad are reasonable. It is counter productive to base policy on the untenable premise that he would be amenable to a cost-benefit analysis on the nuclear issue. Time and again he has announced that the nuclear issue is off the table. To believe or hope otherwise would be a profound and resonant error.

The option that is left for the United States is either to effectively support Mousavi’s camp today or risk a military confrontation with Ahmadinejad tomorrow.

Mansoor Moaddel, Professor of Sociology, Eastern Michigan University
Research Affiliate, Population Studies Center, Institute for Social Research, The University of Michigan

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5,000 March Silently in Iran

CNN is reporting that 5,000 dissidents marched silently on Shariati street near a major mosque in downtown Tehran, ostensibly in honor of cleric Mohammad Beheshti, who was killed in a bombing by the terrorist organization Mojahedin-e Khalq (Holy Warriors of the People) in 1981. But in fact they were protesting the stealing of the recent presidential election and the betrayal of the ideals for which Beheshti died. By casting their march in the terms of a commemoration of a martyr to the revolution at the hands of a despised dissident group, the crowd cleverly made it difficult for hard liners to depict them as agents of a foreign power or revolutionaries seeking an overturn of the government. CNN says that they walked slowly as part of their protest, despite attempts of government security forces to move them along.

The resort to licensed, legal demonstrations is a way for the movement to keep making news and coming in public, something the regime refuses to allow in the case of unlicensed protests. Opposition leader Mir Hosain Mousavi is alleged to have promoted today's event via Facebook.

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Maliki Says Iraq can Patrol Own Cities

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki maintained Saturday that Iraq is ready to provide its own security in the cities, as US troops cease patrolling.

This despite the raft of bombings that kille about 200 people last week.

Aljazeera English has video on the lack of political progress and the failure of reconciliation in Iraq.



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Mousavi's Web Site Closed; Manages to send Message to Iranians Abroad

CNN says that Iran's National Security Council met recently with opposition leaders Mir Hosain Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi and Mohsen Rezai. Ismail Kowsari, spokesman for the NSC, is said to have complained to Mousavi that his position, that the presidential election was stolen, is "illogical" and that he should not have repeated it after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addressed the nation on June 19.

Kalemeh, the web site of opposition leader Mir Hosain Mousavi, has been closed down, as the regime tightens the screws in its crackdown on protests against what reformists see as the stealing of the Iranian election.

At another web site Mousavi has posted a letter to expatriate Iranians who had voted in the presidential election, explaining his current stance. He pledges to continue his campaign through legal channels:

' I would like to give you my assurance that I remain true to my existing pact with you and all layers of the great people of Iran, and using all legal avenues will demand your deserved rights that have been violated at the ballot boxes.

Unfortunately, as you witness in the international media, contrary to the letter of the constitution, and the stated freedoms in the Islamic Republic, all my communication with the people and you has been cut off, and people's peaceful objections are being crushed.

The national media which is being financed with public funds, with a revolting misrepresentation is changing the truth, and labels the peaceful march of close to three million people as anarchist, and the media that are being controlled by the government have become the mouthpiece of those who have stolen the people's votes.

I'd like to thank you again for your peaceful objections which have received widespread coverage across the world, and would like to ask you that by using all legal channels, and by remaining faithful to the sacred system of the Islamic Republic, to make sure that your objections are heard by the authorities in the country.'

He also cautions the expatriate dissidents not to get involved in revolutionary groups that want to overthrow the Iranian government.

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Mousavi Agrees to Seek Rally Permits; 9 am Bazaar Gatherings called in Iran

AP is reporting that opposition leader Mir-Hosein Mousavi has agreed to the Interior Ministry's demand that he apply for a permit one week in advance for any demonstrations, and will cease calling for unlicensed rallies. This is an about-face on Saturday from his stance just 24 hours earlier, when he said that the election theft attempt would be crushed. Mousavi did complain that rallies for his rival Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are allowed without all this rigamarole, implying that the Interior Ministry is treating him and his followers unfairly. D'oh.

The Iranian authorities are now alleging that they have examined a series of ballot boxes and found no evidence of fraud. The problem with this approach, which is being echoed by some Western observers, is that you have to explain the wholly implausible outcome first. Ballots can always be phonied up in various ways. When has there ever been a whistleblower in Egypt who explained how exactly the ruling National Democratic Party always wins parliamentary elections? And yet we know they are fixed. It isn't interesting how-- the *outcomes* tell us that they are.

Meanwhile grassroots protesters are still calling on Iranians to gather in the traditional markets at 9 am in Tehran and other cities, as an attempt to reinvent mass gatherings. This is a way for them to achieve a shop strike indirectly, hurting the economy and putting pressure on the regime.

The announcement says, 'If [the authorities] try to prevent us from doing this, they will inevitably close down the bazaar. If they don't prevent it, we will gather in such numbers that anyway the bazaar will be closed." They say people should just go, initially pretending to be ordinary shoppers, shouting no slogans and wearing no green. But once the pedestrians swell to large numbers in the bazaar, they should simply mill around and decline to buy anything, which will have the effect of making it impossible for real customers to buy anything, either. They portray this method as likely to avoid any bloodshed. (Bazaars are admittedly labyrinthine, and getting a bead on someone inside one may not be easy; and, the bazaaris or shopkeepers and artisans would rather mind gunplay around their merchandise, and they are a backbone for any regime in Iran that wants to survive very long.)

The organizers also say that they hope to see this message spread around the blogosphere, maintaining that the more Iranians who know about it, the better it will work.

This is the announcement in Persian:


Click on the image for larger text.
(Hitting the 'control' button and the plus sign on the keyboard will also size the image up further in most browsers. But go to the larger text first, since it will show more clearly).

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200 Killed in One Week in Iraq

As the dramatic events in Iran have taken the world focus off Iraq, the news that some 200 people, mostly civilians, were killed in bombings and other political violence during the past week has been overlooked by many in the West.

On Friday, a bus station in Baghdad was bombed, killing 7 persons and wounding 31.

Still, Big Oil is nevertheless getting back into Iraq -- my guess is that they are positioning themselves for the filigire even though the terms and the security now are bad. In future they will have built a good working relationship this way.

A lot of Iraqis vaguely wish the reformers well in Iran, but mostly they want the Tehran regime to stay out of their hair.

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Baez: We Shall Overcome/ Ma Piruz mishavim yek Ruz

Joan Baez adds her support to the Iranians campaigning for more rights, singing "We Shall Overcome" with Persian stanzas toward the end.



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Michael Jackson, Islam and the Middle East

Michael Jackson's sad death at age 50 has provoked an outpouring of emotion around the whole world. Because of globalization, it is an event that affects fans in Asia and the Middle East, as well. In early 2007, his brother Jermaine, a Muslim, announced that Michael would embrace that religion. In November of 2008, just months before his death press reports said that Michael Jackson had formally converted to Islam.

Jackson was a man of multiple identities, which helped account for his enormous worldwide popularity. It seems clear that he was deeply traumatized by his rough show business childhood, and that things happened to him to arrest his development. Just as a stem cell can grow into any organ, Michael's eternal boyishness made him a chameleon. Increasingly androgynous, he expressed both male and female. A boy and yet a father, he was both child and adult. In part because of his vitiligo, he interrogated his blackness and became, like some other powerful and wealthy African-Americans of his generation, racially ambiguous. Toward the end of his life he bridged his family's Jehovah's Witness brand of Christianity with a profound interest in Islam. He was all things to all people in part precisely because of his Peter Pan syndrome. A child can grow up to become anything, after all.

Jermaine Jackson explained that it was the experience of touring the Gulf that brought family members into contact with Islam. Interestingly, he found that Islam resolved some dilemmas he had about Jehovah's Witness beliefs. Just as Malcolm X had been converted by his pilgrimage to Mecca from a narrow sectarian folk religion in America to Sunni anti-racist universalism, so Jermaine took a similar path.

We can only speculate about the attractions for Michael Jackson of Islam, but likely his 2005 trial in which he was acquitted of all charges was implicated in his desire for a change. The court psychiatrist confirmed his psychological innocence, saying he had been arrested at the stage of a 10 year old. Michael Jackson was deeply hurt and humiliated by the experience, and his withdrawal to Bahrain and search for a different tradition of spirituality may well have come out of that abasement.

Those who lived through the 80s will never forget the Michael of "Thriller" and other breakthrough videos.

But it seems to me that the iconic later Jackson is "Black or White," which powerfully makes the points above about the fluidity of identity in a globalized world, and underlines the common humanity of us all, something that the eternal boy could see through the ravages of hurt that clouded his never-ending childhood. Young children don't know about racial or religious prejudice. The great tragedy of Michael Jackson is that his childlike withdrawal from reality may have left him more vulnerable to himself and others, and never protected him from bigotry or, other human realities. After all, children shouldn't die.

Here are the lyrics of "Black or White":



Jackson is still enormously popular in the Middle East. Here is a Gulf tribute to the King of Pop. Given the stereotyping of Gulf Arabs as medieval and fanatical, and given the hurtful prejudice against their very form of clothing in the West, it is only right that they should have the last word here on Michael Jackson's universal appeal:



(People are saying that the sound track was added over globalized Gulf music here; OK, but it is the height of hybridity either way.)

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Mousavi Vows to Continue Efforts; Ahmad Khatami calls for Death Penalty on Protest Leaders

At his Friday prayers sermon on Friday, hard line cleric Ahmad Khatami (no relation to former president and liberal Mohammad Khatami) called for capital punishment for leaders of the popular demonstrations against the outcome of the election. This call is a new and dangerous turn, since Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had praised the opposition leaders and simply urged them to accept the official results. Ahmad Khatami is close to the hard line faction of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and is surely voicing the sentiments of the worst of the Basij and Revolutionary Guards elements who have attacked the protesters.

Iran's opposition leader Mir Hosain Mousavi vowed to continue his campaign for a reexamination of the results of the recent presidential election, which he and his followers argued was marred by fraud:

' Mousavi, who last led a massive protest rally a week ago, described his growing difficulties for the first time in a statement on the site. He said authorities were increasingly isolating and vilifying him to try to get him to withdraw his election challenge, but Mousavi added he would not back down. "I am not ready to withdraw from demanding the rights of the Iranian people," he said, adding that he was determined to prove electoral fraud and that those behind it were "the main factor for the recent violence and unrest and have spilled the blood of the people." He also was quoted by his Web site as saying that the Iranian people have the right to express "their opposition to what happened in the election and after that." '

All but 4 of the 70 professors arrested by the regime on Thursday for meeting with Mousavi were released the same day.

On the other hand, various forms of restriction are being imposed on the Mousavi camp. Abolfaz Fateh, a media campaign aide to Mousavi, has been forbidden to leave the coutnry while being investigated for his role in fostering 'illegal gatherings.'

The other reform candidate, Mehdi Karroubi, cancelled planned mourning processions on Thursday, for lack of an official permit. Karroubi had called on his followers to protest and commemorate the killing of protesteAbolrs on Saturday. Mousavi is said to have made his own application for a permit for such a rally.

Although the regime has found means of stopping big street protests for the moment, the Iranian elite is still deeply divided over the legitimacy of the election process, and as long as no consensus or compromise is reached, the crisis will continue on some level.

Robin Mills wonders whether the Mousavi camp can and will deploy the general strike method in the oil sector. This move would be a possibility, assuming the oil workers support reform (not known), but Mousavi appears to be keeping it up his sleeve in case he is arrested. The danger is that if he doesn't use such a weapon when his movement is prominent and popular, it may not work as well once a crackdown has already taken its toll. There is a danger of loss of momentum.

One wonders if sympathy for Mousavi was the reason that deputy oil minister Akbar Torkan was abruptly fired Friday.

Grand Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi weighed in on the crisis on Thursday, urging national conciliation and rejecting any purely cosmetic solutions. This statement is significant because it constitutes a clear rejection of the stance of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who has declared the issue settled. You would not need practical reconciliation if the issue was settled.

All sorts of solutions are being floated by various influential figures, including actually holding a run-off between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi; or having Ahmadinejad resign without requiring a confession of fraud; or having the Expediency Council resolve the dispute (it is headed by Mousavi ally Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani; or even removing Khamenei and replacing him with a council of high clergymen. Most of these suggestions are highly unlikely to come to pass. The most likely outcome is that Khamenei and Ahmadinejad will crush their critics. Whether this repression can work in the short, medium or long term is not clear. The Shah seemed to successfully put down a rebellion in 1963, but was overthrown after a long interval of outward social peace in 1978-79.

Eurasia.net reminds us that there are more factions in Iran than just reformers and hardliners, to wit, anti-populist conservatives like Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani. Larijani, his highly-placed family and networks, do not like incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and have reportedly been signalling that they think he stole the election. On the other hand, this group dislikes the reformists and is very invested in the survival of the system. Eurasia.net speculates that the outcome of the current crisis might depend on whether the Larijani conservatives ally with the pragmatic conservatives around former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani (an ally of Mir Hosain Mousavi).

The news that the regime has appointed Saeed Mortazavi to investigate those arrested in connection with protests against the rigging of the presidential election. Canada had a bad experience with Mortazavi when a Canadian journalist was imprisoned in Tehran and later died in custody under suspicious circumstances, and Canadian officials dealing with prosecutor Mortazavi found him wholly uninterested in human rights issues.

Aljazeera English reports on Thursday's news in Iran:



Video from Youtube of the June 24 demonstration:



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Ahmadinejad Slams Obama; 70 Professors Arrested; Wednesday Protest Violently Attacked

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who stands accused of stealing the recent election in Iran, lashed out at Barack Obama on Thursday. He demanded an apology from the White House for what he termed interference in Iranian affairs, and said Obama had started talking like George W. Bush. He said that Obama's current stance was not a promising basis for going forward with direct talks, a clumsy threat to refuse to cooperate with Washington in any way.

Obama, of course, has not in fact interfered in Iranian domestic politics, for which he has been slammed by hawks who apparently want an invasion. All he did was to object to regime violence toward peaceful protesters and regime abrogation of the right to peaceable assembly.

The BBC is reporting that a victory celebration by the Iranian elite to which 290 MPs were invited ended up being poorly attended, with only 105 showing up.

Ahmadinejad's attempt to shift the blame for the crisis to Obama is an appeal to his base, which I would estimate at 20% of the population, who live for conspiracy theories. But if he were really a politician instead of just being a martinet he would be trying to craft a discourse that would attract the center and mollify the reformists. He is incapable, obviously, of achieving such broad appeal, and no doubt deeply envies Obama's widespread popularity, even inside Iran.

The LAT reports that 70 professors have been arrested in Iran for meeting with Mir Hosain Mousavi, the opposition leader who alleges that the vote in the recent presidential election was rigged. The report in Persian is here. They are members of the Islamic Association of University Teachers.

Hundreds of rock-throwing demonstrators tried to gather in downtown Tehran on Wednesday afternoon, but they met a phalanx of determined security forces who dispersed them by main force. Some 1,000 protesters were said to have gathered near the parliament building before allegedly being attacked.

Opposition leader Mir Hosain Mousavi's web site denied that he was under house arrest, as some observers had alleged, but acknowledged that he was under surveillance. He vowed to continue to attend peaceful rallies. His wife, Zahra Rahnevard, said at the web site that Iran had descended into "martial law."

Patrick Martin at the Globe and Mail wonders if the mass protest movement is petering out in Iran. He raises the question of whether the process of a successful crackdown on the reformists will leave Iran more militarized and more rightwing than ever before. Chilling.

Then there were two. Mohsen Rezaie, one of four candidates for president in the recent elections, has withdrawn his objections to the vote tally, which alleged that Rezaie got less than a million votes and that incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad gained almost 63%. Rezaie, a former commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, is, like Ahmadinejad, a hard liner. But he had joined his two reformist rivals in questioning the official vote tallies. He said he was withdrawing his complaint because "political, social and security situation has entered a sensitive and decisive phase, which is more important than the election . . . I feel it is my duty... taking into account my pledge as a soldier of the revolution, the leader and the people, to inform you that I renounce following up on my complaints."

I stressed last week that the outcome in Iran would depend in some large part on whether the security forces split. Neil MacFarquhar has been doing good analysis at the NYT on the new leader of the Revolutionary Guards, Muhammad Ali Jafari, a counterinsurgency specialist; and the way in which Ahmadinejad packed these security forces' leadership with his men.

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70 Dead in Bombing of Shiite Area, Baghdad

A massive bomb shook Shiite east Baghdad on Wednesday, killing 70 persons and wounding 135. It was unclear, Ned Parker of the LAT reports, who was behind the strike, whether Sunni radicals or Shiites involved in a faction fight. Me, I'd put my money on Sunni radicals. There has at no point been any proof of any Shiite Iraqi engaging in a huge suicide bombing. The militiamen have set roadside bombs against the Multi-National Forces, but they haven't been proved to hit Iraqis this way. If it was a struggle for power in Sadr City, there would be better ways to win than random violence. Whoever did this is still trying to destabilize the new government.

It should be noted that this bombing occurred despite the US patrols, which will cease next week (or be far less frequent or conventional). So logically I cannot understand the proposition that the bombing tells us something about what it will be like when the patrols cease.

The violence is likely to go on either way.


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Washington and the Iran Protests: Would they be Allowed in the US?

President Barack Obama had this to say about the Iran crisis on Tuesday:

' First, I'd like to say a few words about the situation in Iran. The United States and the international community have been appalled and outraged by the threats, the beatings and imprisonments of the last few days.

I strongly condemn these unjust actions, and I join with the American people in mourning each and every innocent life that is lost.

I've made it clear that the United States respects the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran and is not interfering with Iran's affairs.

But we must also bear witness to the courage and the dignity of the Iranian people and to a remarkable opening within Iranian society. And we deplore the violence against innocent civilians anywhere that it takes place.

The Iranian people are trying to have a debate about their future. Some in Iran -- some in the Iranian government, in particular, are trying to avoid that debate by accusing the United States and others in the West of instigating protests over the elections.

These accusations are patently false. They're an obvious attempt to distract people from what is truly taking place within Iran's borders.

This tired strategy of using old tensions to scapegoat other countries won't work anymore in Iran. This is not about the United States or the West; this is about the people of Iran and the future that they -- and only they -- will choose.

The Iranian people can speak for themselves. That's precisely what's happened in the last few days. In 2009, no iron fist is strong enough to shut off the world from bearing witness to peaceful protests of justice. Despite the Iranian government's efforts to expel journalists and isolate itself, powerful images and poignant words have made their way to us through cell phones and computers. And so we've watched what the Iranian people are doing.

This is what we've witnessed. We've seen the timeless dignity of tens of thousands of Iranians marching in silence. We've seen people of all ages risk everything to insist that their votes are counted and that their voices are heard.

Above all, we've seen courageous women stand up to the brutality and threats, and we've experienced the searing image of a woman bleeding to death on the streets.

While this loss is raw and extraordinarily painful, we also know this: those who stand up for justice are always on the right side of history.

As I said in Cairo, suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away. The Iranian people have a universal right to assembly and free speech.

If the Iranian government seeks the respect of the international community, it must respect those rights and heed the will of its own people. It must govern through consent and not coercion.

That's what Iran's own people are calling for, and the Iranian people will ultimately judge the actions of their own government. "

The thrust of these comments is to deplore the Iranian state's interference in the people's right of peaceable assembly and nonviolent protest, a right guaranteed in the constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

It is a good statement, insofar as it is phrased in terms that recognize an ongoing debate inside Iran and rejects US interference in Iranian domestic affairs.

But there are dangers here. Obama will likely be as helpless before a crackdown by the Iranian regime as Eisenhower was re: Hungary in 1956, Johnson was re: Prague in 1968, and Bush senior was re: Tiananmen Square in 1989. George W. Bush, it should be remembered, did nothing about Tehran's crackdown on student protesters in 2003 or about the crackdown on reformist candidates, which excluded them from running in the 2004 Iranian parliamentary elections, or about the probably fraudulent election of Ahmadinejad in 2005. It is hard to see what he could have done, contrary to what his erstwhile supporters in Congress now seem to imply. As an oil state, the Iranian regime does not need the rest of the world and is not easy to pressure. So Obama needs to be careful about raising expectations of any sort of practical intervention by the US, which could not possibly succeed. (Despite the US media's determined ignoring the the Afghanistan War, it is rather a limiting factor on US options with regard to Iran.) Moreover, if the regime succeeds in quelling the protests, however odious it is, it will still be a chess piece on the board of international diplomacy and the US will have to deal with it just as it deals with post-Tiananmen China.

And, the more Obama speaks on the subject, even in these terms, the more he risks associating the Mousavi supporters with a CIA plot. Iranian media are already parading arrested protesters who are 'confessing' that 'Western media' led them astray. In nationalist and wounded Iran, if someone is successfully tagged as an agent of foreign interests, it is the political kiss of death.

The fact is that despite the bluster of the American Right that Something Must be Done, the United States is not a neutral or benevolent player in Iran. Washington overthrew the elected government of Iran in 1953 over oil nationalization, and installed the megalomaniac and oppressive Mohammad Reza Pahlevi, who gradually so alienated all social classes in Iran that he was overthrown in a popular revolution in 1978-1979. The shah had a national system of domestic surveillance and tossed people in jail for the slightest dissidence, and was supported to the hilt by the United States government. So past American intervention has not been on the side of let us say human rights.

More recently, the US backed the creepy and cult-like Mojahedin-e Khalq (People's Holy Warriors or MEK), which originated in a mixture of communist Stalinism and fundamentalist Islam. The MEK is a terrorist organization and has blown things up inside Iran, so the Pentagon's ties with them are wrong in so many ways. The MEK, by the way, has a very substantial lobby in Washington DC and has some congressmen in its back pocket, and is supported by the less savory elements of the Israel lobbies such as Daniel Pipes and Patrick Clawson. I am not saying they should be investigated for material support of terrorism, since I am appalled by the unconstitutional breadth of that current DOJ tactic, but I am signalling that the US imperialist Right has been up to very sinister things in Iran for decades. A person who worked in the Pentagon once alleged to me that then Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld was privately pushing for using tactical nuclear weapons against Iran. And Dick Cheney is so attached to launching war on Iran that he characterized attempts to deflect such plans as a "conspiracy." Given what the US did to Fallujah, it strikes me as unlikely that a military invasion of Iran would be good for that country's civic life. And there are rather disadvantages to being nuked, even by the kindliest of WASP gentlemen of Mr. Rumsfeld's ilk.

Moreover, very unfortunately, US politicians are no longer in a position to lecture other countries about their human rights. The kind of unlicensed, city-wide demonstrations being held in Tehran last week would not be allowed to be held in the United States. Senator John McCain led the charge against Obama for not having sufficiently intervened in Iran. At the Republican National Committee convention in St. Paul, 250 protesters were arrested shortly before John McCain took the podium. Most were innocent activists and even journalists. Amy Goodman and her staff were assaulted. In New York in 2004, 'protest zones' were assigned, and 1800 protesters were arrested, who have now been awarded civil damages by the courts. Spontaneous, city-wide demonstrations outside designated 'protest zones' would be illegal in New York City, apparently. In fact, the Republican National Committee has undertaken to pay for the cost of any lawsuits by wronged protesters, which many observers fear will make the police more aggressive, since they will know that their municipal authorities will not have to pay for civil damages.

The number of demonstrators arrested in Tehran on Saturday is estimated at 550 or so, which is less than those arrested by the NYPD for protesting Bush policies in 2004.

I applaud the Iranian public's protests against a clearly fraudulent election, and deplore the jackboot tactics that the regime is using to quell them. But it is important to remember that the US itself was moved by Bush and McCain toward a 'Homeland Security' national security state that is intolerant of public protest and throws the word 'terrorist' around about dissidents. Obama and the Democrats have not addressed this creeping desecration of the Bill of Rights, and until they do, the pronouncements of self-righteous US senators and congressmen on the travesty in Tehran will be nothing more that imperialist hypocrisy of the most abject sort.

American politicians should keep their hands off Iran and let the Iranians work this out. If the reformers have enough widespread public support, they will develop tactics that will change the situation. If they do not, then they will have to regroup and work toward future change. US covert operations and military interventions have caused enough bloodshed and chaos. If the US had left Mosaddegh alone in 1953, Iran might now be a flourishing democracy and no Green Movement would have been necessary.

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30 Killed in Iraq Violence; Kurds: Oil Contracts 'Unconstitutional'

Bombings and other violence left 30 dead in Iraq on Monday, and the three-day death toll is 100. Monday's strikes included a bombing of a mini-bus with students aboard in Shiite Sadr City.

In my own view,the Shiites won the battle for Baghdad and largely ethnically cleansed the city of Sunni Arabs, who I suspect are now only 10-15% of the capital's population. So this sort of terrorism is now more revenge than anything else, and it is hard to see what political change it could effect. It is just a way of keeping the pot boiling and challenging the ensconcing of the Shiite-dominated al-Maliki government.

The real danger ahead is Arab-Kurdish conflict in the north. In that regard, the building constitutional crisis between the Kurdistan Regional Government and the al-Maliki government in Baghdad over oil contracts is very bad news.


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Guardianship Council Rules out Annulment of Election Results; Reformists Planning Strikes, Mourning

Iran's Guardianship Council, a sort of clerical senate on Tuesday ruled out any cancellation of the results of the recent presidential election, as called for by the opposition. The official outcome gave incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a second term. The vote tallies for Ahmadinejad have struck large numbers of Iranians as wholly unbelievable. So the Supreme Leader has spoken and the Guardianship Council has spoken.

It should be underlined that as it developed in 1979-1980, the revolutionary Iranian regime has two wings. There is a sphere of clerical authority, represented by Khamenei, and a sphere of popular sovereignty, represented by the parliament and, later, the president. The clerical sphere includes not only Khamenei but also two collective bodies, the Guardianship Council and the Expediency Council (which has among other duties the charge of reconciling conflicts between the civil parliament and the Guardianship Council). The clerical sphere also includes the judiciary.

The sphere of popular sovereignty is subordinate to the clerical sphere, but not a puppet of it. The parliament has passed laws that were known to be disliked by Khamenei. The popular sphere was a place that ordinary laymen could blow off steam. Reformists such as former president Mohammad Khatami used the presidency as a bully pulpit to press for more freedom of expression and more rights for women. He was largely blocked by the clerical sphere, but while he was president he did effect changes.

The election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005 changed these dynamics, since his views overlapped in some areas with those of the clerical sphere. In essence, Iran moved closer to being a one-party state. By stealing the election for Ahmadinejad, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has effectively made a coup on behalf of the clerical sphere in alliance with lay hard liners, which threatens to virtually abolish the sphere of popular sovereignty. That is what Mousavi and Karroubi and their followers are objecting to so vehemently. From the outside, Iran was often depicted as a totalitarian state. But from the inside it seemed to have wriggle room. The reformers are saying that the regime has just moved toward really being a totalitarian state and is now removing any space for dissent.

In response, a leader of one of Iran's genuine political parties, Hosain Marashi of the Kargozaran, which supports former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and a pragmatic conservative line, has called for the formation of a broad political bloc to work over time to challenge the "illegitimate" (na-mashru`) government of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Mir Hosain Mousavi, the chief rival of Ahmadinejad, met Monday with senior Iranian clergy to complain about the regime security forces attacking peaceful protesters and killing some of them. He maintains that such repression will only worsen the current crisis. That Mousavi, a former prime minister, is still getting access to senior ayatollahs and has not been arrested shows that the regime is proceeding cautiously in its crackdown. Mousavi has openly challenged the Supreme Leader, who so far has been helpless to silence him because of mass public support for him.

Mehdi Karroubi, a reformist presidential candidate, has called for nationwide mourning of the demonstrators killed last Saturday, to be held on Thursday. Among the victims on Saturday was Neda Agha Sultan, who has become an iconic martyr for the reform movement.

Aljazeera English carries Neda's fiance's account of her death:



Mourning martyrs is central to Shiite Iran's religious sensibilities, and Karroubi's appeal plays on powerful cultural themes.

About 1000 protesters gathered in downtown Tehran late afternoon Monday, but the security forces dispersed them with main force. Attempts were made by protesters to block traffic in parts of Tehran on Monday afternoon, but they appear to have been effectively broken up. Western reporters in Iran have had severe restrictions placed on them.

An eyewitness report from a list I am on, about Monday's broken-up scattered demonstrations in Tehran:

' I cannot sleep and not write this.

Today in Haft-e Tir, there were so many members of basij that they outnumbered the demonstrators 3 or 4 to 1. They were less focused on women. This must be related to the murder of poor Neda. And this was also why whenever they got hold of a man, women would surround them and shout don't beat him, don't beat and they would turn and anxiously say we didn't beat him. It was astonishing. They explained; they talked.

But they didn't allow us to congregate; they kept telling us to walk and the crowd walked quietly for 2 hours in the circle (meydaan) and spontaneously gathered in whichever area they were not present. About 2000 of us were walking around the circle and only shouting Allah-o Akbar until they were forced to disperse us with tear and pepper gases. I thought people's patience and persistence was great, although there were also many bad scenes and I cried.

They arrested a whole bus load of people. There were many intelligence folks in the crowd too. They would point to a person and the basijis would arrest that person. There was no one from Sepah and the police was obviously sympathetic to the crowd. I swear some of the Basijis were only 14 or 15, or at least what they looked like to me. On the other hand, women are playing an amazing role in the streets; both in terms of numbers and effectiveness.. '

Since demonstrations are becoming so hard to stage, what with motocycle Basij forces constantly patrolling and the regime's willingness to break heads even just for having a peaceful demonstration, the opposition is rumored to be shifting tactics.

Mir Hosain Mousavi is said to be planning to call for a national strike. It is hard to keep people from closing their shops and declining to go to work, and if the transportation workers join in, it can close down the city. (The Pakistani public used this tactic in its successful quest to reinstate the supreme court chief justice dismissed by a military dictator). In fact, if the transportation workers strike, they can force most people to miss work . . .

So this item, which appeared on an email list, is potentially very important:

' Excerpts from Statement by Tehran and Suburbs Bus Workers Syndicate Published at this site

Translator’s note: The Tehran Bus Workers’ Syndicate has been in the forefront of Iranian labor struggles since 2005. Their leader Mansour Osanloo has has been languishing in prison since the Summer of 2007. Other members of the organization have been under attack and in and out of prison.

“We Condemn the Suppression and Intimidation of Civil Institutions”

During the past few days we have witnessed the passionate struggle and presence of millions of women, men, old and young, ethnic and religious minorities in Iran . They demand that the government recognize their most basic rights, that is, their right to choose freely, independently and without fraud. This right has been recognized in most parts of the world where every effort is made to protect it. In the midst of this situation, we have witnessed intimidation, arrests, murders and an egregious crackdown which is about to expand and lead to the deaths of many innocent human beings. This crackdown will only lead to more protests among the people, and not their retreat.

The Vahed Bus Workers Syndicate had said the following in a statement that it had issued prior to the June 12 presidential election. “In the absence of freedom of organization, our organization is naturally deprived of a social institution that would protect it. The Vahed Bus Workers Syndicate considers political activity to be the definite right of each member of society. If the presidential candidates present their labor charter and give us practical guarantees on their election promises in relation to labor, workers have the choice to participate or not participate in this election.”

It is clear to all that the demands of the majority of Iranian society goes far beyond economic demands. During the past few years, we have emphasized that so long as the principle of freedom of organization and choice is not realized, any talk of social freedom and economic rights is more of a joke as opposed to reality.

On the basis of this reality, the Vahed Bus Workers Syndicate supports those who are giving their all to build a free and independent civil institution. We condemn any kind of suppression and intimidation.

In order to recognize economic and social rights in Iran, Friday June 25 has been declared an international day of support for imprisoned workers and trade unions in Iran. We are calling on everyone to consider this day to be more than a defense of economic rights. Let’s transform this day into a commemoration of human rights in Iran and ask our fellow workers around the world to take actions in defense of the pummeled rights of the majority of Iranians.

For the Expansion of Justice and Freedom Vahed Workers Syndicate June 2009'

Likewise suggestive is this piece, appearing in the student newspaper Amir Kabir News and translated by a group of UCLA students, which was posted to an email list:

' Amir Kabir News: A group of faculty and professors at Sanati Sharif University's Chemistry College resigned yesterday. These scholars in protest to the recent committed crimes resigned as a group. Prior to this, several faculty members at Tehran University had also resigned in protest to the crimes committed on the University campus. A group of scholars from AmirKabir University also resigned last saturday after gathering at the university mosque in protest to the recent events against the people, the students, and the election frauds.'

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IRGC Breaks up Demonstration in Downtown Tehran

AKI is reporting that Iran's national guard, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, with help from the popular militia, Basij, just broke up a demonstration by hundreds of Mousavi supporters in downtown Tehran. They used tear gas and beatings, characterizing the peaceful assembly as "sabotage." The small crowd was successfully dispersed.

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Mousavi, Defiant, Calls for More Rallies

Reformist presidential aspirant Mir Hosain Mousavi called Monday morning for another round of big street protests by his supporters against the attempt of the regime to steal the election for hard liner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps has replied by warning it will crush any further street protests with a "revolutionary confrontation."

FT points out that given Mousavi's continued challenge to Khamenei's decisions, the regime may well arrest him, feeling the step is necessary to remove his freedom of action. Of course, Iranian Shiites all know the pitfalls of creating martyrs, since the religion is all about resisting the tyrants in history who made the martyrs. An arrest of Mousavi would either push Iran over the brink or would indeed consolidate power for the time being in the hands of the hard liners.

There were no large rallies on Sunday, which the BBC attributes to the security forces fanning through the streets. But the security forces had fanned through the streets on Saturday, too. More likely, the reformists were regrouping after the violence and clamp down on Saturday, which left up to 13 dead. Those 13, including the unarmed young woman known as Neda Agha Sultan (1983-2009)--whose murder by a Basiji was caught on camer-- need to be mourned. The authorities cancelled memorial service for her at Nilufar Mosque. Likely it will now be held in the streets.

The Guardianship Council has admitted that more votes were counted in 50 cities across Iran than there were voters-- the difference could be as much as 3 million questionable ballots. (See below for why the over all vote tallies are anyway implausible.)



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Chatham House Study Definitively Shows Massive Ballot Fraud in Iran's Reported Results

An authoritative study from Chatham House (pdf) , the renowned UK think tank, finds that with regard to the official statistics on the recent presidential election in Iran released by the Interior Ministry, something is rotten in Tehran. The authors compared the provincial returns in the 2005 and 2009 elections against the 2006 census and found:

' · In two Conservative provinces, Mazandaran and Yazd, a turnout of
more than 100% was recorded.

· At a provincial level, there is no correlation between the increased
turnout, and the swing to Ahmadinejad. This challenges the notion
that his victory was due to the massive participation of a previously
silent Conservative majority.

· In a third of all provinces, the official results would require that
Ahmadinejad took not only all former conservative voters, and all
former centrist voters, and all new voters, but also up to 44% of former
Reformist voters, despite a decade of conflict between these two
groups.

· In 2005, as in 2001 and 1997, conservative candidates, and
Ahmadinejad in particular, were markedly unpopular in rural areas.
That the countryside always votes conservative is a myth. The claim
that this year Ahmadinejad swept the board in more rural provinces
flies in the face of these trends.'

Note that many reformists did not vote in 2005, because they had become discouraged by the way the hard liners had blocked all their programs. Some 10.5 million persons who did not vote in 2005 did vote in 2009. It is highly unlikely that most of these non-voters in 2005 were conservatives who now came out for Ahmadinejad in 2009. But to do as well as the regime claimed, Ahmadinejad would have needed to attract substantial numbers of these voters to himself.

Former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani got 6.2 million votes in 2005. He is a centrist, pragmatic conservative. How likely is it that his constituency abandoned pragmatic conservatism for Ahmadinejad's quirky hard line? Over 10 million voted in 2005 for reformist candidates.

Ahmadinejad got 13 million more votes this time than the combined total for all conservatives in 2005. The authors of this study concede that Ahmadinejad could have held on to all the 11.5 million hard line voters from 2005. But how likely is that, really? Some of those who voted hard line surely found Ahmadinejad's style abrasive and his policies, such as provoking high inflation through pumping too much oil money into the economy as a reward to his constituents, annoying.

So over all, let's say he captured Rafsanjani's entire faction in the face of Rafsanjani's own dislike of him. That would have give him less than half of his new votes. So he would have had to convinced over half of the voters who sat 2005 out to vote for him; but those were the ones most disgusted with the hardliners. Or he would have needed to win over substantial amounts of the old Khatami reformist vote. Not likely.

And in 10 of 30 provinces, the hard liners did poorly enough in 2005 that Ahmadinejad would have had to gain the votes of all those who did not vote that year but did vote in 2009, of all the Rafsanjani pragmatic conservatives, and of nearly half the reformist vote.

Even in East Azerbaijan, here were the numbers in 2005

Ahmadinejad: 198,417
Hard Liners 232,043
Non-voters: 684,745
Rafsanjani (pragmatic conservatives): 268,954
Reformists: 690,784

and the result in 2009:

Ahmadinejad: 1,131,111

We could say that a little over 400,000 of these votes are not surprising, since that is the number that was hard line in 2005. But Ahmadinejad picked up over 700,000 votes after 4 years. The non-voters may probably mostly be counted as reformists. So again, Ahmadinejad needed all the non-voters in 2005 to switch to him in 2009 plus a large proportion of the Rafsanjani voters. It makes not sense. And this outcome requires us to believe he picked up all those votes among people who deeply disliked him 4 years ago despite running against a favorite son from Azerbaijan! (And no, that Ahmadinejad speaks broken Azeri would not make Azeris vote for him any more than Latinos voted in 2008 for all those Republicans who speak good Spanish.)

As I had noted earlier, the official results ask us to believe that rural ethnic minorities (some of them Sunni!) who had long voted reformist or for candidates of their ethnicity or region, had switched over to Ahmadinejad. We have to believe that Mehdi Karroubi's support fell from over 6 million to 330,000 over all, and that he, an ethnic Lur, was defeated in Luristan by a hard line Persian Shiite. Or that Ahmadinejad went from having 22,000 votes in largely Sunni Kurdistan to about half a million! What, is there a new organization, "Naqshbandi Sunni Sufis for Hard Line Shiism?" It never made any sense. People who said it did make sense did not know what a Naqshbandi is. (Quick, ask them before they can look it up at wikipedia).

I was careful in my initial discussion of why I thought the numbers looked phony to say that catching history on the run is tough; and I later characterized myself as a mere social historian (i.e. not a pollster or statistician). But this study bears out most of my analysis with the exception that the authors dispute any rural bias toward Ahmadinejad. I think they are too categorical in this regard, however. When people, including myself, said that rural people liked Ahmadinejad, we meant Shiites living in Persian-speaking villages on the Iranian plateau, in fair proximity to cities such as Isfahan, Tehran and Shiraz. We weren't talking about Turkmen or Kurds (both Sunnis), or about Lurs (everyone suspected Karroubi would get that vote). I suspect that some of those to whom we referred as rural are being categorized as living in 'small towns' by the Chatham House authors. But field workers even in the Shiite, Persian-speaking villages point out that they often encounter anti-Ahmadinejad sentiments there, as well.

But that is neither here nor there. The numbers do not add up. You can't have more voters than there are people. You can't have a complete liberal and pragmatic-conservative swing behind hard liners who make their lives miserable.

The election was stolen. It is there in black and white. Those of us who know Iran, could see it plain as the nose on our faces, even if we could not quantify our reasons as elegantly as Chatham House.

The Nation will soon have a fine piece by Robert Dreyfuss on this study.

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More Details on Saturday's Demonstrations

Update This video posted by BBC is worth watching all the way to the end.

Update: A friend passed on this further eyewitness account of Saturday's events:

' "it was a real mess yesterday..but the real feel of a start of something big...made it to Tohid Sq by 4.30......by 5 there were already large stream of people headed that way from all directions, right around 5.15 the guards charged from Engelab Sq. People started running and some trowing bottles and rocks....the animals made a demi-tour right on the junction of Chamran after beating some people and firring tear gas and went south.

This continued till about 6, when the numbers started getting larger and larger, people started running east toward Aazadi shouting "natarsid..natarsd..Ma Hame Ba Bahm Hastim" (dont be afraid, dont be afraid, we are all together) and followed by the thugs, at this time i found myself in a barber shop on Nasr St, with 5 other strangers urging the owner to close down his shutters, he had 3 chairs and asked 3 of us to sit on them to pretend we are getting a cut in case they come into the shop, we did so, and he actually started cutting my hair, he did a o.k job with few patches missing here and there,

He said his son has been missing all day and he is a draftee in the army (i will go back and see him when this is all over one day). I did not see any shottings, nor casulties, made my way back home around 730ish...from my vintage point I could see large black smoke all around Azadi...today the rumor has it that people are headed toward jame-jam......"

The below is a post by someone with good contacts in Iran. I have been careful to anonymize it but no important information has been changed or omitted.

According to my contacts in Iran:

1. Saturday, they watched from their apartment window a clash between the police and the construction site workers at the Towhid Tunnel (which is predicted to connect Parkway to Nawab). The police tried to make a shortcut to reach the protesters, and ambush them on the other side, when the workers told them they would not let them through this led to a clash between the workers and the police. The workers used all types of construction machineries to halt the police from shovels to bricks and the cement truck. The situation between the workers, mostly from Lor and Turkish background, caused some of the protesters to rush to the aid of the workers.

2. Most Azad University branches in Tehran have declared two exam dates for each subject for the end of the year and have stated that the students can take whichever that is most convenient for them. Pro-Ahmadinejad students and baseej have interpreted the move as a pro-Musavi action by Jasbi that allows pro-Musavi students to conveniently distribute their forces between the two dates and fill the streets. Pro-Musavi students have intrepreted this move as an action by the Intelligence elements to identify the students, making them Setareh-dar, as they will easily identify who has been absent when.

3. Tehran is full of checkpoints but the Police are inconsistent due to personal taste of the commanders. The checkpoints are active at night. They mostly look for counter anti-riot gears, such as masks, wipes and first aid boxes, but it also seems that they also look for Satellite dish equipments. Most "illegal" satellite dish technicians have gone underground as they know that the police are after them. One case reported to my family is exemplary in showing that there is a division in the ranks of the police, which in a way is a good sign. Two contacts, one of them a Member of Musavi campaign, were stopped at a check point and their car trunk was full of posters and green bands. The constables took them to their immediate commander who confiscated all the material and ordered them to be arrested. However, as they were taken to another check point where the district commander was, he overruled his superiors and ordered them to be released and also oversaw the return of the posters and other pro-Musavi material to them. As they got in the car to leave the station, the district commander told them that they have to be extra careful and told them (Movaffagh Bashid- meaning
roughly "good luck").

4. An obstetrician gynecologist at Martyr Foundation hospitals, said that about fifty young people brought to their hospitals had head injuries from rubber bullets. Half a dozen of them passed away before getting to the operation theatre. She believes all the people who are close to Karrubi family (she is a friend of Karrubi's wife) are under surveillance.

5: The Internet speed has dramatically increased.

6. The documentary film-maker whose equipment was confiscated by the security forces said that the intelligence have postponed her interrogation. Yesterday, she helped transport three people to the hospital, but as they were arrived the police arrested several other people who had brought in more wounded, and thus they were able to get away without being arrested.


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Daughter of Rafsanjani Arrested; Death Toll for Saturday at Least 10; Khatami calls for Impartial Panel

The death toll caused by the state's crackdown on the demonstrations in Iran on Saturday has risen to 10-13, with 100 injured.

The regime has arrested Faezeh Hashemi Rafsanjani, daughter of the former president, who spoke at a pro-Mousavi rally, along with 4 other members of that family. This step is typical of an old Iranian ruling technique, of keeping provincial tribal chieftains in check by keeping some of their children hostage at the royal court. It is widely suspected that Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a multi-billionaire who is well connected politically, is funding and aiding the reform movement's protests.

Former president Mohammad Khatami has criticized Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei for banning even peaceful large demonstrations. Khatami said, according to Lebanon Now:

' “Prohibiting people from expressing their demands in a civilized manner will have dire consequences. . .”

“Linking the healthy movements of the people with foreign interference is a flawed political practice, which leads to alienating the people from the government . . .”

Khatami maintained that the big turnout in the election, nearly 40 million voters, demonstrated that the voters were the owners of the state and the revolution. He praised the silent protests and the polite behavior of the demonstrators. (The regime is now calling them "terrorists.")

The former president said that crisis could still be resolved peacefully, but not by putting its resolution “in the hands of a referee who is also under suspicion and complaint.” (This is a reference to Ahmad Jannati, the head of the Guardianship Council, who is a strong partisan of incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad). He called for an impartial commission to look into the charges of ballot fraud.

Khatami remarked, “This is the only solution to safely overcome the current phase and a positive step on the path to reinforce the Iranian system and to settle the crisis in the best interests of the Iranian people and the principles of the revolution. . .”

Grand Ayatollah Husayn Montazeri called for 3 days of mourning for the victims.

Aljazeera English reports on the violence on Saturday:



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OSC: Larijani admits Majority Has Doubts on Election Results, Urges Respect for them

The USG Open Source Center puts into English the gist of an interview in the official Iranian press with Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani in which he admits that a majority of Iranians doubts the officially announced election results, and says that their views should be respected. However, he does not himself bring the results into question and suggests that rural and small town voters voted differently than urban ones. Since the latter assume everyone thinks like them, hence the urban disbelief. But since he has identified the doubters as the majority, wouldn't the majority be doubting precisely because they voted for Mousavi and can't believe he lost to Ahmadinejad in a landslide?

FYI -- Iranian Speaker Larijani Criticizes Guardian Council for Taking Sides
Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 2
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Document Type: OSC Summary

Tehran Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 2 Television in Persian at 1815 GMT on 20 June broadcast a live interview with Iranian Majles Speaker Ali Larijani.

Larijani said the fact that more than 85 percent of Iranians had participated in the election was "unprecedented". He said the election's aftermath should not provide a pretext for foreign leaders to interfere in Iran's domestic affairs. He added that the performance of the government over the past four years, as well as the televised debates, paved the way for a high turnout. Larijani said the debates led to some controversies as well.

Larijani tried to explain why more votes were cast for Mahmud Ahmadinezhad. He said that in the past, the "wave of election" usually started in the major cities and spread to smaller cities and villages. "If you have a look at 2nd Khordad (23 May 1997, when Mohammad Khatami won the election), you will see that there was a balance between big and small cities and villages. However, it was not the case in the latest election; various factors were involved in this election. It was a new phenomenon. It had its own consequences. Maybe those people who lived in a city, and most of them shared the same idea (about a candidate), started to assume that all people across the country held the same idea, and it became a criteria for their judgement."

Cont'd (click below or on "comments")


He said the officials and the television stations should respect the majority of people who complained about the results. However, he differentiated between the protesters and "rioters". Larijani said: "The demands and expectations of the masses, who have their own idea and perhaps the political parties and politicians have played a role in shaping their ideas, should be respected. We in the Majles are serious about pursuing their demands legally."

He referred to the Guardian Council stance on the presidential election and said: "As you know, some disputes were about the stance taken by some of the members of the Guardian Council on the election. Some of politicians and candidates have expressed the same thing. I think that it was better for them (the Guardian Council) not to take sides (in favor of Ahmadinezhad). The status of the Guardian Council, who plays the role of arbitrator, should not be a center of such a dispute. This issue can be used as experience for the next elections." On the other hand, the Majles Speaker tried to defend the members of Guardian Council by describing them as "faithful and pious". Ali Larijani said that those groups who have attacked students' dormitory in Tehran should be "seriously dealt with". He called for the establishment of security in the society and urged the police and Basiji forces to do it "logically" and "carefully".

"Our system, which is based on people's vote, freedom, and independence, is never for despotism," he added. Larijani said: "Everyone believes in people's right to hold gatherings. If some groups want to hold gatherings they can ask for permission. Our legal bodies should permit them. Maybe they are not allowed to hold gatherings in streets which disrupt people's business, but they can hold gatherings somewhere else in order to express their ideas. You (referring to the network's staff), on television, can play a key role in this regard."

He advised the state politicians not to express anything which may agitate people. Larijani called for the establishment of tranquillity in the society. The Majles speaker referred to some claims of "vote-rigging" and advised all groups to pursue their complaints through legal means. He expressed hope that the Guardian Council will be able to resolve the issue. The Majles Speaker urged the Guardian Council to "transparently" announce the results of its findings to the people. Larijani said that all Iranian officials are members of a same family and they should not be divided over the recent election.

Larijani referred to the latest remarks of the foreign leaders and media on the election. He said: "I think that (Iranian) radio and television should be very transparent and should not be biased. They should broadcast different views so that people do not feel that they need other (foreign) media. It will be a very good strategy."

He added: "Some Western politicians, particularly the Americans and the British, have rudely spoken in this regard. They expressed their whole-hearted support for human rights in Iran and expressed their worries for the Iranians. I would like to tell this point to Mr Obama, the French president, German chancellor, British prime minister, that you are too dishonored to speak about Iran's domestic affairs. The people of Iran are very well familiar with your records." He talked about the measures taken by the US and European officials in the past against Iran. Larijani added: "Britain is too dishonored. In many regional and domestic conflicts in Iran, we have seen the footsteps of Britain. Our people believe that there is a British hand behind every evil move." He once again stressed that the Iranian officials are members of the same family. Larijani said that Obama's rhetoric of change could not alter anything.

The Majles Speaker then talked about Iran's status in the world and described it an "honor and dignity" for the country.

He referred to the recent statement by the US Congress on the election events and said: "It was a disgraceful move. They have hastily ratified a bill. So what is the value of such thing? You have spoken in defense of freedom in Iran. If there were not any freedom in Iran, we would not have such disputes now. Americans have a black record in our country. You have backed the Shah's regime, who had detained all fighters. Your action is fruitless; it only has made our people more vigilant." Larijani said: "The Iranian nation have witnessed that in the current context a number of groups are sitting outside like wolves. Our society is so united and religious ideas have joined the hearts so closely together that the foreigners cannot penetrate into that. They are only making our people angrier. Velvet revolution cannot happen in our society. It happens in societies which do not have a long history of civilization."

On the future cooperation of the Majles with the government, Larijani said that the lawmakers would have a good relationship with the government based on "fraternity and justice". The Majles Speaker said that the government should implement the Outlook Plan and the ratifications of the Expediency Council. He said that the country should stop relying on oil revenue in the future. At the end of the interview, he said that the current situation in the country could be considered as an opportunity to correct past mistakes. He urged all officials in the country to be vigilant and follow the guidelines of the supreme leader.

The interview ended at 1917 GMT.

(Description of Source: Tehran Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 2 in Persian -- state-run television)
End/ (Not Continued)


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Mousavi Letter Translated

The below is not my translation but was sent by a kind friend.- JRIC

Mir Hossein Mousavi has published on his Web site "Kalemeh" (The Word) a letter addressing the people.

Below is a full translation, with annotations.

The original Persian text is here


Urgent
Press Release No. 5
20 June 2009

From: Mir Hossein Mousavi
To: The Dignified People of Iran

Do Not Allow Liars and Cheats Rob You of the Flag of the Islamic Republic


In the Name of God, the Beneficent, the Merciful

"Indeed, God commands you to render trusts in your care back to their owners; and when you judge between people, that you judge with justice." (Qur’an, 4:58)


The Dignified and Astute People of Iran:

In these days and nights, a historical crossroads is taking shape in the history of our nation. People ask each other, and they ask me, as to what should be done and what path should be taken.

Cont'd (click below or on "comments")


I feel compelled to share with you my beliefs—to tell you and to learn from you. May it be that we not forget our historical mission, and not shirk from the responsibility that [future] generations and epochs have placed on our shoulders.

Thirty years ago, a revolution took place in our country in the name of Islam—a revolution for freedom, a revolution to revive the honor of mankind, a revolution to promote truth and righteousness.

Since then—and in particular, during the lifetime of our enlightened Leader [Ayatollah Khomeini]—substantial investments, in terms of lives, property, and dignity, were poured into the blessed foundation [of the Republic], resulting in significant achievements.

A light we had never previously experienced enveloped our society, which, despite formidable difficulties, was sweet for the people. Our people earned honor, dignity, and the shimmer of a purified existence.

I have no doubt that the people who experienced those days will not settle for anything less.

Did we the people cease to deserve that soulful existence?

I came to say that this is not so. That it’s not too late. And that we’re not too distant from that effulgent ambiance.

I was prepared to show that it’s possible to lead a spiritual life in a modern world.

I was ready to convey the warnings of our Leader [Ayatollah Khomeini] about [the dangers of] stone-age mentality.

I was prepared to say that circumventing the law leads to dictatorship.

I was prepared to remind [those in power] that to honor the dignity of humans does not weaken, but in fact strengthens, the foundation of the Republic.

I was prepared to say that the people expect truth and forthrightness from their civil servants, and that many a problem plaguing us stems from deceit.

I was prepared to say that regression, poverty, waywardness, and injustice are not our fate.

I came to invite [us all] to the Islamic Revolution as it used to be, and to the Islamic Republic as it ought to be.

In this mission, I was not eloquent. Despite my deficient speech, the genuine message of the Revolution touched the hearts of the young generation—which had not experienced those [early] days. Having found a large crevasse between itself and the lofty ideals [of the Revolution], the youth reconstructed scenes that we had not witnessed since the early days of the movement [to depose the Shah] and the Sacred Defense [against Saddam’s Iraq].

The self-propelling movement of the people chose green as its iconic color. I admit that in this I followed their lead.

A generation had been accused of having fallen out of religion. But it rose with the chants of of “Allahu Akbar” (God is the Greatest) and “نصر من الله و فتح قريب” (“Assistance from God [leads to] imminent victory,” Qur’an 61:13), and “Oh Husayn,” and the name of Khomeini, thus proving that the fruit of the noble tree is always the same—pure.

[Translator's Note: Imam Husayn, a Grandson of Prophet Muhammad, rose against the tyranny and oppression of Caliph Yazid.]

None other than the inspirer of man’s primordial nature [i.e., God] taught them these chants. How iniquitous are those whose minor self-interests propel them to declare this Islamic miracle as a foreign manufacture and a “velvet revolution.”

But you’re aware that as we moved to revive our national lifeblood and attain the goals rooted in the hearts and minds of our young and old, we were confronted with deception and fraud. And what we had predicted as the consequence of circumventing the law materialized overtly and rapidly.

Mass participation in the recent election was due, first and foremost, to the efforts made to raise the people’s hope and trust. They participated to find a graceful solution to the management crisis, and the consequent widespread social dissatisfaction, that threatened the very essence of the Revolution and the Republic.

If the people’s good opinion and trust is not reciprocated by protecting their votes, or if they’re denied civil and peaceful channels to defend their rights, then dangerous paths will lie ahead. And those who refuse to tolerate peaceful conduct will bear the responsibility for any consequences.

If the very large magnitude of the cheating and vote-rigging, which has fueled popular discontent, is cited as proof of the absence of cheating, then the Republic is headed for the slaughterhouse, and the allegation that Islam and republicanism are contradictory will have been proven.

[Translator's Note: This is in reference to a comment made by Mr. Khamenei in his Friday sermon of 19 June 2009, where he suggested that if the contested votes had been on the order of up to a million ballots, then there may have been merit to the allegations of vote-rigging, but that cheating could not explain an eleven-million difference in the vote counts.]

Such a fate will gladden two groups.

One group, from the beginning of the Revolution, had fortified itself against the Leader [Ayatollah Khomeini]. It insisted that an Islamic government must be run like the dictatorship of the righteous. Adherents of this group, in their defunct thinking, surmised that they could drag people to paradise by force.

The second group were those who, under the guise of defending the people’s rights, declared religion and Islam contradictory to a republican form of government.

The Leader [Khomeini] maneuvered astutely to neutralize the sorceries of these two groups.

Relying on the path of the Leader [Khomeini], I came to neutralize the sorcerers who have resurfaced since then.

By validating what has come to pass in the election, the authorities now bear its consequent responsibilities. They have limited the scope of any investigation into the polling so as to ensure that the purported validity and the results of the election will remain intact.

This is despite the fact that in over 170 electoral precincts the number of votes exceeded the number of eligible voters.

We've been asked to pursue our grievance through the Guardian Council. But the Council proved its bias before, during, and after the election [in favor of Ahmadinejad].

The first requisite of adjudication is neutrality.

I still uphold, strongly, that the demand to invalidate the election is an indisputable right, which ought to be addressed by an impartial committee trusted by the nation. The outcome of such deliberations should not be declared a priori.

[Translator's Note: This is in reference to Mr. Khamenei's Friday sermon of 19 June 2009, in which he again endorsed the election results, even though he has officially asked the Guardian Council to revisit the vote counts, a task the Guardian Council has yet to complete.]

Nor should the people be intimidated—by veiled threats of potential bloodshed—from demonstrating and protesting.

[Translator's Note: This is in reference to comments made by Mr. Khamenei in his Friday Sermon of 19 June 2009, in which he placed the responsibility for bloodshed on the shoulders of the opposition leaders.]

Nor should the National Security Council (NSC) equivocate—in response to legitimate demands for clarification about the role of plain-clothed individuals attacking the people and destroying public property, thereby inflaming popular sentiment—and instead place the responsibility for the recent calamities on others.

[Translator's Note: This is in reference to the NSC’s response to Mousavi’s letter to them in which he had demanded an investigation into the recent aggressions by quasi-official, plain-clothed persons attacking people and damaging property. In response, the NSC, failing to provide an explanation, turned the table and held Mousavi responsible.]

As I gaze upon the political landscape, I find it engineered for purposes that transcend the mere imposition of an unwanted Chief Executive. It’s an attempt to impose a new political reality on the nation.

As a companion who has seen the beauty of your green wave, I will never permit myself to endanger your lives by my actions. Nevertheless, I’m firm in my view that the recent election is invalid, and I insist on the fulfillment of the people’s rights.

Despite my limited authority and influence, I continue to believe that your motivation and creativity—expressed through novel civic activities—will enable you to pursue, and attain, your legitimate rights.

Rest assured that I continue to be at your side.

In the pursuit of innovative solutions, what I, as your brother, suggest to our beloved youth is that you should not allow liars and cheats rob you of the flag of the Islamic Republic. Nor should you allow the illegitimate and the wayward confiscate from you the priceless Islamic heritage that your righteous forbears paid for with their blood.

Entrust your affairs with God, maintain hope, and rely upon your own strengths as you pursue your social movement—based on the explicit freedoms articulated in the Constitution and on the principle of eschewing violence.

In this path, we’re not the opponents of the Basiji; the Basiji is our brother.

In this path, we’re not the opponents of the Revolutionary Guard; the Revolutionary Guard is the protector of our Revolution and our Republic.

We’re not the opponents of the armed forces; the armed forces protect our borders.

We’re not the opponents of our Sacred Establishment or its legal infrastructure; this infrastructure is the guarantor of our independence, freedom, and our Islamic Republic.

We’re the opponents of deviations and lies, and we seek to reform them—a reform based on the genuine principles of the Islamic Revolution.

We advise the authorities to promote calm in the streets by upholding Article 27 of the Constitution—and ask that they not merely accommodate peaceful public congregations, but, in fact, to encourage them, and to purge the national radio and television of slanderous and one-sided coverage.

[Translator's Note: Article 27 of Iran's Constitution: “Public gatherings and marches may be freely held, provided arms are not carried and that they are not detrimental to the fundamental principles of Islam.”]

Before voices turn into shouts, the authorities should allow for a logical, more beautiful discourse to take place on the national media, so any wrong views get corrected and tempered.

The authorities should allow the media to critique, to report events as they are, and, in a sense, to provide a platform where agreements and disagreements can be aired freely.

Let us allow those who want to chant “God is the Greatest” to do so, and let us not consider it as an expression of opposition to ourselves.

Clearly, in such a case, there will be no need for the presence of military and [riot] police on the streets. Nor would we have to endure the painful sights and sounds that molest the heart of anyone who loves the country and the Revolution.

Your brother and companion,

Mir Hossein Mousavi.



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