One Million Iraqis Killed; Humanitarian Crisis of Vast Proportions; 6 Bombings in Baghdad

Ambassador Marc Ginsburg is astonished that John McCain could win in Florida on a platform of a Hundred Years War in Iraq and phony slogans about "victory" that McCain is careful never to define. In my view, McCain's mantra about "victory" in Iraq is the 2008 equivalent of Nixon having a "secret plan" to end the Vietnam War in 1968. Somebody should please ask McCain what "victory" would look like exactly and how he would get there. Intensively patrolling some neighborhoods and cutting them off from traffic with blast walls are not measures that can be kept up for very long. Then what?

Besides, someone please do me a favor and actually read the list of bombings and killings appended at the end of this post, occuring in downtown Baghdad and elsewhere, and tell me why John McCain thinks things are just hunky dory there. Is it a racist thing where it doesn't matter how many Iraqis are killed as long as US troops aren't? Even then, 5 US troops were blown up on Monday. Yeah, that's real calm.

A new professional poll carried out by a British firm in Iraq concludes that excess deaths from violence since March 19, 2003 through summer 2007 came to just over 1 million. Note that excess deaths from violence do not necessarily imply that they are directly war-related. Thus, murders of a criminal sort, tribal feuding, and so forth would be included. Since Bush interfered with the establishment of a strong new government after his invasion, he promoted the sort of insecurity that permitted high rates of violence, whether political, criminal or war-related. This poll tracks with the findings of the studies of Gilbert Burnham and Les Roberts, published in the Lancet and disputes lower numbers found by a recent WHO study (which, however, only ran through June 2006 and was limited solely to civilians--this British study goes to 2007 and seems to include everyone.)

The British findings are also consistent with estimates of between 1 million and 2 million widows in Iraq. These widows, many of them young, face extreme poverty without a breadwinner. As the Iraqi street has been captured by religious parties and militias, gender segregation and female seclusion have increased, which prevents single young women from going out to work in mixed-gender settings like stores and workshops. In short, Iraq is being Talibanized by Bush's war.

Reuters points out that almost none of the widows are getting any welfare payments from the Iraqi government. It adds: "A report by aid groups found that 43 percent of Iraqis lived in "absolute poverty". Four million people needed food assistance and only one in three children under five had access to safe drinking water."

A new poll finds that the percentage of Americans who think the war to overthrow Saddam Hussein was worth it to the US declined from 35% to only 32% between December and January. The percentage who thought it was not worth it rose from 56% to 59% according to the same poll. It turns out that the American public is not impressed with a mere reduction in violence nowadays from apocalyptic levels last year this time. They want to know why we went there in the first place, and why their sacrifice of blood and treasure was worthwhile. No one, including McCain really has an answer for that.

Bush signed a law forbidding him from spending money to make permanent bases in Iraq but at the same time issued a signing statement making clear he had no intention of paying any attention to that or several other provisions in the legislation. What do you call a leader unconstrained by his legislature? An absolute monarch. I thought we had a revolution to get rid of that sort of thing.

McClatchy reports political violence for Wednesday:

' Baghdad

A member of the national police was killed and another four members were injured in an IED explosion that targeted their patrol near al Mustansiriyah University in Waziriyah neighborhood east Baghdad around 7:00 am.

Two civilians were injured in 2 IEDs explosion in al Nidhal Street downtown Baghdad around 7:15 am.

Five members of the national police were injured in 2 IEDs explosion that targeted their patrol underneath Ghadeer bridge in Ghadeer neighborhood east Baghdad around 7:30 am.

Three civilians were injured when a mortar shell hit al Mansour neighborhood west Baghdad around 8:00

A joint force (Iraqi and US army) raided the office of Atheer cell phone network in Mansour neighborhood west Baghdad today afternoon and arrested 8 employees

Police found three anonymous bodies in Baghdad . . .

Kirkuk

A police source said that a police patrol found two head of men near one of the factories in Doz town south of Kirkuk today morning. The source said that the two heads were [of] two Turkmen men called Sabah Fadel and Mohannad Jum’a who were kidnapped a week ago.

Anbar

A member of Abo Zakarya Sahwa office (Abo Zakarya awakening office ) was killed and three others were wounded in a suicide car bomb that targeted the office in Thiraa’ Dijla area northwest of Baghdad on Tuesday afternoon.

Mosul

Gunmen killed Dr. Khaleel Ibraheem, the head of the Sharia in the college of the Islamic sciences in Musol University and one of his students in al Mishraq neighborhood east Mosul city today afternoon.

Diyala

Gunmen attacked a house in Bardaniyah village, 7 Kms north of Baquba city killing the father and injuring his two sons and his daughter.

Gunmen attacked abdul Hameed village, 10 Kms north of Baquba kidnapping three civilians.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Afghanistan: Danger of Failed State

Several new studies have just appeared warning that things could go very badly very easily in Afghanistan, which could turn into a failed state. One bad side effect, a British study concluded, would be the discrediting of NATO.

Barney Rubin weighs in on what could be done from Kabul.

An Australian study thinks Australian troops will still be needed 15 years from now in Afghanistan, and that the central government still will not have control of some of the Pushtun regions where al-Qaeda was strong in the past.

Today's news from Afghanistan includes a suicide bombing and the finding of decapitated bodies.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

5 US troops Wounded; 5 Killed Monday put on Planes; Who is thinking about the 18-year Olds?

AP reports that:

' A bomb exploded at a checkpoint Tuesday in Baghdad, wounding five American soldiers and three civilians, the U.S. military said. Iraqi officials claimed it was a suicide bombing and said two people were killed. The attack occurred just after noon as women were being searched before being allowed to enter a commercial street in the predominantly Sunni Amariyah neighborhood in southwest Baghdad, according to a local police official and an Iraqi army officer." '

The wounding of these US troops follows a day after five US troops were killed in a roadside bomb attack on Monday in Mosul. This attack was the second-deadliest this year, and brings the total so far for US fatalities in Iraq to 37, far more than December's 23. The commitment of troops to an actual set of engagements in Mosul led to these recent deaths, and I have for some time wondered if the fall in troop deaths was simply because they were no longer being committed to ground campaigns in any numbers. The recent attack on Arab Jubour appears to have been done mainly from the air, as Tom Engelhardt points out, and when afterwards troops were sent in, they were at risk from roadside bombs.

AP reports that a ceremony was held on base on Tuesday for the five troops killed Monday, as their bodies were loaded in an airplane:

' At a U.S. base outside Mosul, scores of U.S. troops and an honor guard stood at attention on the airfield tarmac as five coffins of their slain comrades were loaded onto a plane for the journey home.

A cold wind blew as the bleak ceremony began. Five groups of eight pallbearers each took turns unloading a flag-draped coffin from the back of five Humvee ambulances, as about 75 members of the fallen soldiers' unit stood at attention.

At least 100 other soldiers stood erect and silent through the 30-minute ceremony. Even civilian workers at the airport of Forward Operating Base Marez on the outskirts of Mosul formed an honor line as the dead soldiers bodies' were loaded into a gray C-130 transport plane.

Soldiers refused permission to photograph the ceremony, saying the pain of the sudden loss of five comrades was too great, and that not all the families had been notified.

"President Bush should be out here watching this ramp ceremony to see what it is really like," said one soldier, who asked not to be identified.

"The people who created this war need to be thinking about the families of these 18-year-olds who are dying." '

Let me just repeat that last phrase: "The people who created this war need to be thinking about the families of these 18-year-olds who are dying." That was said by one of our patriots in Iraq. It is true. It made me cry a little.

On Tuesday, 9 headless bodies and 10 heads [sic] were found in a field in Diyala province. McClatchy says that police found DVDs containing confessions that the men belonged to an Awakening Council group. So this was likely Baathists of Salafi Jihadis killing what they saw as collaborators. The US gives a stipend of $250 a month to most Awakening Council militiamen.

US officers in Iraq seem uncomfortable with the diction of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who announced that the current military operation in Mosul would "finish off" "al-Qaeda." Maj. Gen. Mark P. Hertling said that taking on the rebels would be "a long process."

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Tuesday:

' Baghdad
4 Iraqi Army servicemen and 6 civilians injured as IED exploded targeting an army patrol in Bab al-Sharji, Sadoon St. in central Baghdad at 08:00 this morning.

3 policemen and 5 civilians injured as IED exploded targeting a police patrol Sina'a St, the industrial neighbourhood near The University of Technology at 08:30 this morning.

An IED targeted an American military patrol in Canal St. east Baghdad. No casualties reported.

3 civilians injured in an IED explosion in al-Dakhiliya neighbourhood, al-Yarmouk, south Baghdad at 10:30 am..

A mortar round hit al-Fdhailiyah neighbourhood, east Baghdad injuring 2 civilians at 11:00 am.

3 Katyusha missiles hit the green zone starting at 02:50 this afternoon at almost 30 minute intervals. No casualties were reported. . .

3 bodies were found in Baghdad today by Iraqi Police. 1 in Ma’amil, 1 in Shaab and 1 in Doura.

Mosul

A vehicle born IED driven by a suicide bomber targeted an American military patrol in al-Thubbat neighbourhood, central Mosul Killing 1 and injuring 15 civilians. The Americans cordoned the area off. No American casualties were reported.

2 policemen killed and 2 injured as gunmen attacked a vehicle carrying 4 policemen of the Mosul police force on the main road to Baghdad yesterday afternoon.

Anbar

An armed group attacked a police commander’s motorcade which was also carrying some high ranking officials of the Tharthar area near Saqlawiyah town 20 km to the north of Fallujah, but were unsuccessful in their attempt. A police force was sent on their trail, with allegedly Sahwa members. They rounded up 20 people suspected of being amongst the attackers and executed them in the same neighbourhood. [sic]

Two truck drivers were abducted and taken along with their trucks on the route between Fallujah and Tharthar. Their hands were bound and they were killed by releasing their freight of pebbles upon them.

The police at Saqlawiyah police station opened fire upon two suspicious men headed for the police station. The two men then exploded and it was found that they had been wearing explosive belts. 5 policemen were superficially injured.

Salahuddin

District Commissioner of Salman Bek district and member of the provincial council for the Kurdistan Coalition party, Talib Mohammed Mustafa survived an assassination attempt. He and his driver got away from the attack that was carried out with machine guns and other light weapons on the main road to the south of Tuz.

Fatma al-Haseni was seriously injured and her two colleagues were killed by gunmen in the Mahatta neighbourhood on the way between Baghdad and Tikrit this afternoon. Al-Haseni and her deceased colleagues worked for the Furat satellite station.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

One last Argument with Bush

When Bush first came in, the comedian Will Ferrell did a skit on the television show "Saturday Night Live" that depicted the president cowering under his desk as bombs went off in Washington and the country went down the tubes. Coming after the prosperity and relative peace of the Clinton years, it seemed a fantastic parody. Little did we know that if anything SNL did not begin to capture the full extent of the catastrophe.

Nobody cares any more, unlike in 2003 when shills for the war were always on my case to "report the good news" and lay off Bush. Some of my "arguments with Bush" during the past 7 years were internet bestsellers. Now, the man has discredited himself so badly, he can't even get people to so much as yawn at him. But in honor of all those arguments of the past, I'm doing it one last time.

As usual, most of what he said in the State of the Union address was transparent lies. He praised private groups for doing charity work in Louisiana because he hasn't followed through on his own promises after Katrina. He did that phony thing of reporting the average tax "increase" if his "tax cuts" were allowed to expire. If I'm in the room with someone who made a billion dollars last year and Bush doesn't cut my taxes at all but he cuts those of the billionaire such that he saves 5% of his income, then the two of us in the room have an average tax cut of $25 million apiece. But in the real world, I get bupkus and the billionaire gets $50 million. That shell game sums up the Republican "tax cut" scam they keep running on the American middle class, which always falls for it.

So here are some last arguments with the man's bald faced lies, for old times sake.

Bush assertion: "We believe that the most reliable guide for our country is the collective wisdom of ordinary citizens."

Sad Fact: Indiana GOP tries to keep ordinary citizens from voting with restrictive photo identification law.

Bush assertion: "And so, in all we do, we must trust in the ability of free peoples to make wise decisions and empower them to improve their lives for their futures."

Sad fact: Amit Paley writes, "A strong majority of Iraqis want U.S.-led military forces to immediately withdraw from the country, saying their swift departure would make Iraq more secure and decrease sectarian violence, according to new polls by the State Department and independent researchers.
In Baghdad, for example, nearly three-quarters of residents polled said they would feel safer if U.S. and other foreign forces left Iraq, with 65 percent of those asked favoring an immediate pullout . . ."

Bush assertion: "We've seen Afghans emerge from the tyranny of the Taliban and choose a new president and a new parliament."

Sad fact: "Afghanistan Journalist sentenced to Death for Blasphemy" and I don't think women would agree with Bush's rosy picture of progressive democracy in Kabul. Not to mention that half the country's gross domestic product is generated by the heroin trade. Bush goes on to say that his democratic projects are only being interrupted by terrorists; but all the problems above are problems with the establishment, not with terror groups.

Bush assertion: "From expanding opportunity to protecting our country, we've made good progress."

Sad fact: Bush's Iraq is a major generator of terrorism, which it was not before 2003. "Iraq has replaced Afghanistan as the prime training ground for foreign terrorists who could travel elsewhere across the globe and wreak havoc, according to U.S. counterterrorism officials and classified studies" by the CIA and the Department of State, Warren P. Strobel reported July 4, 2005. "Iraq's emergence as a terrorist training ground appears to challenge President Bush's rationale for invading and overthrowing leader Saddam Hussein in March 2003," Strobel wrote." So we are safer how again?

Bush assertion: "We launched a surge of American forces into Iraq. We gave our troops a new mission: Work with the Iraqi forces to protect the Iraqi people, pursue the enemy in his strongholds, and deny the terrorists sanctuary anywhere in the country."

Sad fact: "The Iraqi Red Crescent Organization and the U.N. reported last month that the “number of Iraqis fleeing their homes has soared since the American troop increase began in February. . . The chart reports some decreases in the intensity of “ethno-sectarian violence” in certain Baghdad districts (Note: This is based on military data). But where there have been decreases, they are due largely to the fact that “mixed Muslim” areas are being overrun by either Shia or Sunni enclaves.The map above demonstrates that Shias have been gradually taking over all of Baghdad (noted by the green mass that now covers much of the city), wiping out Sunni communities that stood in their path. Center for American Progress analyst Brian Katulis estimated that Baghdad, which once used to be a 65 percent Sunni majority city, is now 75 percent Shia."

A large proportion of the 1.5 million Iraqi refugees in Damascus was displaced to Syria during 2007, apparently as a side effect of Bush's troop surge.

So all this involves "protecting the Iraqi people" how, exactly? Does Bush think Iraqis are safer when they are refugees in a foreign country?

He won't be missed.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

2 US Troops Killed; Marsh Arab Tribal Sheikh Murdered in Basra; Bombings, Kidnapping in Baghdad

The USG Open Source center translates from an Iraqi television report, "Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki pledged to end the crisis facing his government as a result of the recurring withdrawals of the political blocs, asserting that there will be a change this week. In press statements, Al-Maliki said that the Presidency Council gave him two weeks to announce a new government -- either with the return of the ministers of the Iraqi Al-Tawafuq Front and the Iraqi List or forming a new government. He added that there is only one week to do so, pointing out that if a new government is formed, it will be based on criteria other than the sectarian quota system."

The Presidency Council ultimatum has put pressure on al-Maliki to bring the [Sunni fundamentalist] Iraqi Islamic Party back into his government, but I haven't seen evidence that Iyad Allawi's secular National Iraqi List is thinking of rejoining the cabinet.

Tensions are increasing between the Kurdistan Alliance and the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. Outstanding issues include Kurdistan oil deals pursued independent of the Federal government, and the Baghdad government's foot-dragging on arranging for a referendum in Kirkuk province on whether it should accede to the Kurdistan Regional Authority (a provincial confederacy wherein 3 provinces have erased their boundaries and elected a join parliament).

The Kurdish newspaper Hawlati reported on 27 January that Kirkuk Governorate Council member Muhammad Kamal has threatened to cut off links with Baghdad if Article 140 of the constitution, which provides for the referendum, is not implemented.

In a phrase appropriate to the state of news and analysis about Iraq in general, the USG Open Source Center quotes from Sharqiya or Iraqiya television: "Iraqi Defense Minister Abd-al-Qadir al-Ubaydi said that the situation in Mosul in central Ninawa Governorate in northern Iraq is much worse than he was told." The Interior Ministry is recruiting 3,000 men to combat the guerrillas, in part from clans who saw loved ones killed or injured in the recent bomb blast near Mosul.

The USG Open Source Center reports from Iraqi television, "In Maysan Governorate in southern Iraq, the authorities set up a crisis management cell in the governorate. Meanwhile, a number of imitators of Ahmad Bin-al-Hasan, also known as Al-Yamani, were arrested. A source at the Maysan Governorate Police Department said that the cell, which is headed by the governor of Maysan and includes the police director, the head of the governorate municipal council, and a number of members of the Council of Representatives, aims at running the security affairs of the governorate in emergency cases and preventing any security violation there. He added that detachments from the Maysan Police Department arrested a number of Al-Mahdi (as heard) followers in Maysan for involvement in the incidents that took place in Basra and Al-Nasiriyah."

Maysan is ruled by the Sadr Movement, which is clearly alarmed by the millenarian Supporters of the Mahdi. (The Sadrists are also mild millenarians, so this other movement is real competition for them). The report is saying that claimants to be the Mahdi or the Promised One of Islam are cropping up all over southern Iraq, and that the inchoate movement swirling around them easily turns violent. Think the David Koreish group at Waco on steroids.

Sawt al-Iraq reports that on Saturday afternoon, Shaikh Sami Husayn, the head of the Marsh Arab Bahadili tribe, was kidnapped in downtown Basra. On Sunday morning, his body was found in the street, with three bullets in his head. Shaikh Sami had been a member of the Baath Party under Saddam. Basra's factions tribes are likely to be mired in a feud as a result of this assassination.

Reuters reports that:

'BAGHDAD - One U.S. soldier was killed by a roadside bomb while he was on patrol in Baghdad on Saturday, the U.S. military said. . . '

McClatchy adds accounts of further attacks:

' Baghdad

Around 10:00pm Saturday night, gunmen broke into the house of Ahmed J[a]wad Hashim, a former general director in Baghdad municipality during Saddam’s regime. The attack took place in Talbiyah neighborhood east Baghdad. The gunmen slaughtered Hashim, his wife, his daughter and his son, police said.

[Six] people were injured (3 civilians and two soldiers) in an IED explosion that targeted an Iraqi army patrol near al Nida’a mosque in Qahira neighborhood east Baghdad around 7,30 am.

Around 7:45 am, gunmen kidnapped a bus with its passengers (5 female employees who work in the college of languages) in New Baghdad neighborhood east Baghdad.

Around 10:00 am, an IED exploded near Saj al Reef restaurant in Karrada neighborhood downtown Baghdad. No casualties were reported.

A US army hummer was burnt in an IED explosion near the medical cotton factory intersection in Waziriyah neighborhood east Baghdad around 12:00 pm. The US army confirmed in a press release the news about the attack saying that one soldier was killed in the explosion.

Police found four anonymous bodies in Baghdad. Two bodies were found in Rusafa, the eastern side of Baghdad in the following neighborhoods (1 body in Sadr city and 1 body in Qahira). The other two bodies were found in Karkh, the western side of Baghdad in the following neighborhoods (1 body in Amil and 1 body in Bayaa)

Diyala

Two civilians were injured when an IED exploded near their house in Sadiyah area east of Baquba city today afternoon.

Police found four anonymous bodies in one of the orchards in Shirween village, part of Muqdadiyah town east of Baquba city.

Two policemen were injured in clashes between the Iraqi police and gunmen in Dalli Abbasa area north of Baquba city today afternoon . . .'

Reuters adds, "KIRKUK - Gunmen killed a man in a drive-by shooting on Saturday outside his house in central Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad, police said."
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Will the Next President be Irrelevant?

With Obama's win in South Carolina, it seems clear now that it is a four person race for the White House. On the Democratic side, it will be Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. On the Republican side, it will be John McCain or Mitt Romney.

McCain is still foolishly trying to own the Iraq quagmire, which I think will come back to haunt him in so many ways it isn't funny.

But what kind of America will the next president preside over? Is it an Incredible Shrinking Superpower?

Parag Khanna of the New America Foundation argues in the NYT Magazine that the choices the Bush administration has made have profoundly weakened US power in the world. Indeed, he suggests that Bush set the US on a downward spiral, such that Europe, China and India are picking up the pieces and making Washington irrelevant. While the US is bogged down in Iraq, China is quietly extending its influence in Asia. Europe is playing both sides against the middle, and is increasingly indebted to Russia and Central Asia for its energy.

You have to wonder whether Bush's aggressive, unilateral policies have not only sunk him but the rest of us as well.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Extra Police Protection for Sistani; Sadrists flee Wave of Arrests

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that Iraqi security forces have since Friday evening instituted extra measures to protect the four grand ayatollahs who serve as spiritual leaders of the Shiite community in Iraq, and who live in Najaf. The precautions were taken after an assassination attempt against the representative of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani in Karbala failed.

Najaf Police Chief Abdul Karim Mustafa said, according to AFP, that he had intelligence of a plot by terrorist groups to create turmoil by assassinating Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani and damaging the shrine of Imam Ali (the son-in-law and cousin of the Prophet Muhammad), among the holiest sites for Shiites.

Al-Hayat's sources also say that followers of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr are fleeing from southern cities to Najaf in the wake of a wave of arrests targeting them, especially in Basra and Diwaniya. (The police forces in Diwaniya are dominated by recruits from the Badr corps, a rival militia to the Mahdi Army. Basra is jointly in the hands of Badr and its rival, the paramilitary of the local ruling Fadhila or Virtue Party). It is Mahdi Army leaders who are fleeing to Najaf.)

Rahim al-Musawi, one of those who fled Basra for Najaf, is quoted as telling al-Hayat, "The security forces of Basra are implementing a campaign of arrests of supporters of al-Sadr on the grounds that they belong to Mahdist movements." The Mahdi is the future promised one of Islam, whose appearance signals the coming of the last days.

Sadrist MP Salah al-Ubaidi said that Muqtada al-Sadr will announce within a month whether his freezing of Mahdi Army activities will continue.

An aide to Muqtada al-Sadr, Sheik Qais al-Mudhaffar, was shot down in Najaf on Friday, as well.

Iraqi officials continue to be worried about the spread of radical Shiite millenarian cults in southern Iraq. Last weekend the Supporters of the Mahdi attacked police checkpoints and a Basra oil focility, as well as killing an Iraqi officer and wounding others in Nasiriya.

Voices of Iraq gives a recent history of the doomsday cults and their differences.

British Foreign Minister Lord Malloch Brown admitted Saturday that the Iraq War has been horrible:

'Commenting on President Bush statement that there would be victory eventually in Iraq, Malloch-Brown said: "We've lost a lot of people there. This is not something that theres triumphalism on any side. This is a terrible episode for everybody."

. . . Malloch-Brown predicted that Iraq would still be a huge issue in the US presidential debate. (ANI)'

Our world has become so Orwellian that when a British cabinet official admits that the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, the displacement of several million, the decline of health care, and the quarantining of entire neighborhoods behind blast walls, have been horrible, that is news.

Among the great tragedies of Bush's Iraq War has been the destruction of Iraqi history and archeology. Since the people who lived in what is now Iraq invented so much of ancient civilization, this loss diminishes us all.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Saturday:

' Baghdad

- Around 8 a.m. gunmen used machine guns to attack policemen in Bab Al Sharqi, killing one policeman and injuring one.

- A roadside bomb targeted civilians in Al Qanat area causing no casualties.

- Around 10 a.m. a roadside bomb targeted civilians near Al Shaab soccer stadium, injuring five civilians.

- Iraqi police found one body in Dora.

Diyala

- Iraqi police said the American and Iraqi troops clashed with gunmen near Al Wajihiya area (about 25 Kilometers east of Baquba) killing four gunmen including a high ranking member of Al Qaeda.

- Gunmen attacked a local council building in Baquba injuring two guards.

- A roadside bomb targeted police in Muqdadia, killing one police officer and injuring 3 others.

- A roadside bomb targeted the personal car of one of Diyala governor's body guards in Abu Saida area. The guard was killed in the attack.

- Mortar shells slammed into Al Salam town about 20 kilometers east of Baquba, injuring three residents.

Sulaimaniyah

- Police found two bodies in two different areas of the province. The first deceased was Alaa Atiya, 27 years originally from Karbala, with two gun shots in the head and the knee and was found west of Sulaimaniyah city yesterday. The second body belongs to a Kurdish young man who was found in Sulaimaniyah city with gunshots in the body, police said.'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Sunni-Shiite Pact in Parliament

The USG Open Source Center translates a broadcast by the Iranian Al-Alam satellite television station reporting on a new pact between the [Shiite] Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and the [Sunni coalition, the] Iraqi Accord Front, especially the latter's Islamic Iraqi Party. This alliance probably comes in response to the move of other parties to form an alliance against the ISCI-dominated government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. Since the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq was originally formed by the Iranian government, al-Alam's reporting about it is positive.


Iraqi Sunni, Shiite Parties Meet To Agree on Charter for 'Concurrent Action'
Al-Alam Television
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Document Type: OSC Translated Text

(Presenter) The Iraqi scene is witnessing noticeable political movement these days. Within this framework, the (Shiite) Islamic Supreme Council and the (Sunni) National Accord Front held a preliminary meeting and formed a committee to draft a charter on concurrent action. These meetings come amid reports of a new government to be formed headed by Al-Maliki.

(Correspondent) New alliances and blocs (are emerging) in the political process known for its multi-polar nature and inertia. Movement began inside and outside the deputies' chamber (Iraqi parliament) away from the work of the government. The Islamic Party, the largest party in the National Accord Front, and the Islamic Supreme Council are preparing to sign a charter on concurrent action.

(Hamid Mi'la, deputy for the Iraqi United Alliance) As is known, a meeting took place last Tuesday between the political bureaus of the two parties, the Islamic Supreme Council and the Islamic Party. An understanding was reached and ground was prepared for future understandings. Given the importance of these two political bodies, a committee was formed to draft some provisions on a joint agreement, the aim of which was to drive forward the political process.

(Abdul-Karim al-Samara'i, deputy for the Iraqi Accord Front) During this meeting the important political issues on the Iraqi front were discussed. There is a belief with the brothers at the Islamic Supreme Council that there is a need for the Islamic Party to participate in the decision-making of the Iraqi government, given that it is the biggest party on the Sunni front.

(Correspondent) Advancing the political process was evident from the meetings of the (political) bloc's leaders. The result was the removal of alliances and agreements which were deemed to be blocking political action, and the forming of others based on professionalism and away from quotas and bloc-formation.

(Abbas al-Bayyati, deputy for the United Iraqi Alliance) These agreements and meetings are part of the political movement. Everyone feels a sense of national responsibility through supporting the national unity government and by advancing the political process. This is especially so after everyone is sensing an improved security situation. This political movement and these bilateral agreements are evidence that the political forces are moving ever closer and are uniting around a nationalist foundation.

(Correspondent) These alliances come after a long list of discussions and deliberations. The parliament has seen in the last few months a change of the map of blocs and lists. According to observers, the future of these alliances, which have increased recently, will contribute to the driving forward of the political process and have already reflected well on the performance of the government and reduced tensions in parliament.

(Description of Source: Tehran Al-Alam Television in Arabic -- IRIB's 24-hour Arabic news channel, targetting a pan-Arab audience)

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

OSC: Iraqi Kurd official says Kurds unequal US ally

The USG Open Source Center translates an opinion piece from a major Kurdish Iraqi newspaper containing quotes from a Kurdish official about the Kurdish-US relationship. The piece maintains that the alliance is one of convenience on the US side; is not as strong as that between Washington and Kuwait; and may not last if the interests of the two diverge. [This disillusionment may derive from the green light the US has recently given Turkey to bomb Kurdish villages in northern Iraq that are suspected of harboring guerrillas of the Kurdish Workers Party or PKK.]

Iraqi Kurd official says Kurds unequal US ally
Kurdistani Nuwe
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Document Type: OSC Translated Excerpt

Iraqi Kurd official says Kurds unequal US ally

Excerpt from opinion piece by Farid Asasard - fourth in a series of articles - entitled "Kurdish-US- relations between desire and fact with an introduction by the editorial secretary of Kurdistani Nuwe: The fall of the former regime was the basis for Kurdish-US common interests", carried by Iraqi Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) newspaper Kurdistani Nuwe on 24 January

(Introduction by editor) The alliance or friendship between the Iraqi Kurdistan Region and the USA is often discussed by Kurdish officials and occasionally the Americans indicate that they are friends of the Kurds and support their democratic experience. What is the truth about that friendship and alliance, if it exists? How, and on what criterion and basis of clear interests the Iraqi Kurds are the friends of the USA or the USA is the friend of the Kurds? In which written text, agreement or document has that friendship been recorded? Does the essence of that friendship have an official and strategic basis or is it the outcome of a common perception regarding some of the events in Iraq and having some common interests in Iraq and the region? Does the friendship include moral commitment and obligation regarding the interests of both sides or is it just about the Kurds going along with US interests and adapting themselves to the wishes of the superpower?

How does the Kurdish leadership view the friendship? How confident are they about it and can they rely on it? To what extent is the friendship without a future? What are the long-term conditions of this friendship?

Do the Kurds have other superpowers to rely on for support as regards their rights and political demands in Iraq? Do the Kurds have a strong card to bind the USA to the supposed friendship with the Kurds? What would happen to the Kurds' political standing if the USA finds other reliable friends in Iraq? Is there a possibility that the USA would one day turn its back on the Kurds and their friendship and at what stage would that take place? Have the Kurds considered the possibility that the US may withdraw its friendship with the Kurds for whatever reason?

The Kurdish leadership needs to have a clear perception of the truth about its relationship with the US in order to have a clear political vision. Would they need to take the friendship to a strategic level and find out how to do that?
What is the Kurdish status in the recently-signed strategic accord between Iraq and the USA? What kind of consideration has been given to us and does the USA view the Kurds within the framework of Iraq or would they be given special treatment?

(Head of Strategic Study Centre Farid Asasard) The Kurds supported the US in its 2003 war against the former regime in Iraq. In fact that war marked a turning point in Kurdish-US relations and the Kurds and the US became allies in that war.

All the Kurdish alliances in the 20th Century ended in defeat for Kurdish interests. This applies to Kurdish alliance with the Kemalists (referring to followers of Turkey's first President Mustafa Kemal Ataturk) against Greece and Britain up until their alliance with Iran during the eight-year war between Iran and Iraq.

The Kurds in 1990 were exasperated with alliances but decided to take part in the US plan without consulting the US. Thus, the Kurdish-US alliance in the 2003 war was the first in which the Kurds gained something. As much as the alliance was unclear in 2003, it remains so until now. The Kurdish-US alliance resembles an alliance between a mouse and a lion. However, the roots, framework, the path followed and perseverance will show which one is the lion and which one the mouse (as published).
It is possible to overlook the issue and consider the alliance as one between a small nation and a world power, and it is like a card game for the small nation; it will either win well or lose badly. (Passage omitted)

Kurdish-US alliance is not bound by any declared pledge, agreement or written text, which leads to the absence of a framework for clearly identifying common interests. No alliance can exist without common interests, but the issue here is not about common interests because a number of factors, other than common interests, affect and ensure the establishment and persistence of common interests and under certain conditions they could become the basis for the development of these interests, while under different conditions they could destroy them and bring about dramatic changes and wipe off their traces. (Passage omitted)

The Kurds' immediate interest was in the fall of the former regime, and it was on the basis of the destruction of the former regime that common interests between Kurds and the US are being established. Prior to the fall of the former regime, the US was busy planning the creation of a new Iraq and they had gained experience in that area in Germany, Japan, Greece and Italy. The US strategic planning was for Iraq to spearhead change in the region. The plan, which was put into action after the fall of the regime, was established on the following pillars:

1. A democratic Iraq where power is exercised constitutionally and peacefully with the state of law and protection of human rights, where all the constituents participate in running the country.

2. Consolidation of a progressive economy that could compete at the international level.

3. An Iraq with a peaceful policy in line with US objectives.

The US wanted to present Iraq to the region as a model of a democratic and stable state with a progressive economy. They wanted to turn Iraq into a catalyst for change throughout the region. (Passage omitted)

We are not concerned that the US needs the Kurds at this juncture in Iraq because the Kurds can be an essential element in consolidating US objectives; after all, the US plan is in their interest. However, that is only one aspect of the issue and the other aspect is that the Kurds need the US more than the US needs the Kurds, and the US can find an alternative to the Kurds but the Kurds cannot find an alternative to the US. This means that the US is the source of the Kurds' strength while the US's strength comes from within.

It would be useful here to compare the US-Kuwaiti alliance with the Kurdish-US alliance because in both cases the US is the powerful side while the other two are weak, bearing in mind that there is a strategic partnership between the US and Kuwait. However, in addition to being a strategic ally of Kuwait, the US is also the protector of that country. Kuwait's value to the US is largely in ensuring fuel for its industrial machinery. Therefore, any attack on Kuwait would be considered an attack on the US, and by protecting Kuwait the US is protecting its own interests.

US-Kurdish alliance is well behind US-Kuwaiti alliance. The value of the Kurds to the US lies in that the US needs Kurdish help at this difficult juncture in Iraq and it may not need the Kurds in the way it does now when the difficulties end. An important aspect of the issue is that the Kurds have not considered that the US has special conditions for alliances. As soon as the cold war ended with the collapse of the Eastern Bloc, the alliance conditions changed. The only condition set by the US for its allies during the cold war was opposition to communism and in exchange it turned a blind eye on the behaviour and policies of all its allies. Now, with the globalization of democracy and human rights, the removal of boundaries of the transfer of knowledge and raising influence of public opinion, the US is no longer able to turn a blind eye on the shortcomings of its allies and considers it its responsibility to draw their attention to many issues which did not matter in the past.

The growth of Kurdish-US alliance requires the element of need. On the basis of this judgment, there is no hope in any plan for political and economic reform in the region with this administration, which demonstrates much disorder - a reminder of the 19th Century principalities - and has been subjected to all kinds of schemes; with this political system which has not been able to revitalize the administration departments to manage and provide the required services; with the little transparency that exists; with this economic system which is controlled by some families, political parties and groups and has an adverse impact on the freedom of work and service resources. All that leaves no basis for even a limited alliance with the US. The US cannot conceive establishing a strategic alliance with all these drawbacks that exist in the region and the region cannot fulfil the conditions that the US deems essential.

(Description of Source: Al-Sulaymaniyah Kurdistani Nuwe in Kurdish -- daily newspaper published by Iraqi Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK))

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Maliki Announces Push on Mosul; ICTJ says Iraq Debaathification law Makes things Worse

According to al-Hayat in Arabic, Iraqi preachers on Friday expressed outrage over the Israeli siege of Gaza and condemned Arab governments for doing nothing about it. They also condemned the bombing in Mosul and the doomsday group, Supporters of the Mahdi, in the Shiite south.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the Iraqi parliament still has not passed a budget. One of the hangups is that the Kurds are demanding 17% of the government expenditures (and are also demanding that the federal state pay for their state militia, the Peshmerga). The Arab delegates to parliament are not willing to give the Kurds such a high proportion of government monies.

Al-Hayat also says that the (Sunni) Iraqi Islamic Party is definitely coming back into the Nuri al-Maliki government.

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki announced a major Iraqi military operation in the north, in the vicinity of Mosul, on Friday. He said that the Iraqi army would make a 'final push' against "al-Qaeda."

But al-Maliki's security forces are largely Shiite, and recruited from sectarian Shiite movements, at that. Mosul is 80% Sunni Arab. So the likelihood that an Iraqi army crackdown in the region will be viewed by local Sunnis as a good thing strikes me as low. Moreover, a lot of the resistance to the government in Mosul comes from cells of the Baath Party, and dismissing Sunni politics as "al-Qaeda" is inaccurate and likely to lead to poor political maneuvering. Without popular support, the federal government remains weak.

Mark Perry reports that the US officer corps had wanted to reach out to the Sunni Arab tribes of al-Anbar years ago but was consistently blocked by the civilian politicians of the White House (presumably because they had thrown in with the Shiite fundamentalist parties and Ahmad Chalabi's Iraq National Congress). Was the length of the struggle with the "insurgency" an artifact of Don Rumsfeld's, Paul Wolfowitz's and Condi Rice's various and contradictory policies, which had the effect of over-ruling the good sense of our smart officers on the ground? Par II is here. Perry argues that no one among the officers can figure out who is in charge of policy. What I hear is that the top officers in Iraq feel they have done everything they can, but that policy is adrift and BushCo won't make any tough decisions about where to go from here. And, the officers don't make policy, they mainly do tactics in the service of a strategy that should be coming from the White House. It isn't.

Sounds to me like the Exxon Valdez, with Bush playing the skipper and Iraq playing the supertanker.

On the political front, I fear this national reconciliation thing is not working out very well in Iraq.

The International Center for Transitional Justice which specializes in helping countries come to terms with past human rights abuses, has issued a detail report (available here in pdf format) that brings sharply into question the usefulness to national reconciliation of the new law on debaathification passed by the Iraqi parliament. They translated the law here (again, pdf). ICTJ concludes:

' 1. The new law is not the major change that reformers had pushed for. Instead, the law preserves the previous De-Ba'athification system and simply renames Iraq's controversial De-Ba'athification Commission. This is a major change from the draft law that went to parliament in December;

2. Reinstatement rights, pension rights, and the appeals system have been strengthened for many thousands of people, at least on paper. These are welcome improvements - but do not change the fact that the system is still based on guilt by association, not on individual deeds;

3. The new Commission has stronger powers than previously and its reach will now extend across different organizations, including the President's Office, Prime Minister's Office, and the Supreme Judicial Council. Exemptions will be harder to come by. These changes will likely cause political backlash and also severely violates the independence of Iraq's judiciary. These provisions are in addition to the new language that forces all former employees of Ba'ath era security forces to retire, which is already complicating the law's political reception;

4. The new Commission will now have the power to investigate complaints of corruption or criminal activity by former Ba'athists and gather evidence for judicial action. This could be a welcome move towards greater accountability-or a new mechanism to conduct public and high profile witch hunts. Much depends on the Commission's new leadership and the new rules they must establish for the Commission's work. '

As I pointed out when the law was first passed by parliament, I found it suspicious that some powerful Sadrists were behind it and enthusiastic about it, but that ex-Baathists like Iyad Allawi and Salih Mutlak came out against the legislation. If it were really good for ex-Baathists, you'd have expected it to be the other way around. Much will depend on how it is implemented, but the ex-Baathists apparently fear that it will be used to shut them out of politics altogether.

Parliament designed a new flag to replace that of Saddam Hussein, removing the three stars symbolic of Baath principles and changing Saddam's handwriting to an ancient block script (it still say God is Most Great). Even these minor changes have angered many Sunni Arabs, and apparently it will not be flown in al-Anbar Province. Likewise the Kurds don't like it, because it is too much like the old flag that flew in the Baath period, when Kurds were subjected to gas attacks.

As for those 18 benchmarks of political progress that Congress wanted to see before they went on funding Bush's boondoggle in Iraq, the Center for American Progress doesn't find that much has been accomplished on those, either.
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Mosul Police Chief Killed; Karbala'i Escapes Assassination

The police chief of Mosul and two other officers were killed by a suicide bomber when they came to the site of the recent powerful explosion. The death toll from that bomb rose to 40.

A bomb lightly wounded Abdul Mahdi Karbala'i, the representative in the holy Shiite city of Karbala of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, and killed two of his body guards on Thursday. He was leaving the shrine of Imam Husayn (the martyred grandson of the Prophet). This is a season of passionate mourning for Husayn among Shiites, and if Karbala'i had been killed, I think there was substantial danger of a mass outbreak of violence and rioting in the city.

The Bush administration wants a wide-ranging set of commitments from the Iraqi government that will exempt not only the US military but also civilian contractors from Iraqi law. In the colonial period such treaties were common, and exemptions were called 'capitulations.' The immunity of US troops from Iranian law was one of the grievances Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini highlighted when he made the revolution against Iran's monarch, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.

Hiring Paul Wolfowitz to advise the State Department on arms control is like hiring Lindsay Lohan as a driving instructor.

Besides, when someone is consistently wrong and always vastly exaggerating the threat from abroad, it isn't normal. Here's a trip down memory lane:

'With Ford’s approval, Bush also granted a team of hard-line Cold Warriors, including neoconservative academic Paul Wolfowitz, access to the CIA’s raw intelligence on the Soviet Union capabilities, enabling this so-called “Team B” to challenge the CIA’s nuanced assessment of Soviet strength. Though the intelligence pointed to serious – and worsening – Soviet deficiencies, “Team B” emerged with an alarmist vision of Soviet power and intentions. In late 1976, Bush largely adopted this dire assessment, which restricted the maneuvering room of Ford’s successor, Democrat Jimmy Carter.'

And we need him to vastly exaggerate the threat from Iran, why? Maybe because no one reputable would take it on?

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Thursday:

' Baghdad

Two policemen were killed and 3 others were injured including a policeman in an IED explosion in al Andulos square downtown Baghdad around 8,00 am.

Two civilians were injured in an IED explosion in Ghadeer neighborhood east Baghdad around 4,00 pm.

A civilian was injured in an IED explosion in Zafaraniyah district southeast Baghdad around 4,30 am.

Police found three anonymous bodies in Baghdad today. Two bodies were found in Doura neighborhood in Karkh, the western side of Baghdad while the third body was found in Ma’amil neighborhood in Rusafa, the eastern side of Baghdad.

Nineveh

Mosul police chief Brigadier General Salih Mohammed Hasan al Jobori and one of his guards were killed and 10 other people including al Jobori guards were injured when a suicide bomber detonated himself among them while al Jobori was visiting al Zinjili area west Mosul city where the explosion happened yesterday. Police said that the suicide bomber was wearing a police uniform confirming that al Jobori was injured seriously and he died after moving him to the hospital.

The toll of the explosion of Zinjili explosion which took place yesterday rose to 40 killed people and 220 others injured.'

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Beinin Guest Op-Ed: The People in Gaza Challenge Sham Peace Process

by Joel Beinin

About 3:00 am on Wednesday morning Jan. 23, well-coordinated explosions demolished the iron wall built by Israel to seal the southern border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt (the Philadelphi axis). Tens of thousands of Palestinians streamed across the border and entered the Egyptian side of the town of Rafah, which had been bisected by the wall, in search of food, gasoline, and other basic commodities which have been in short supply for many months in Gaza. The first wave of Palestinians to cross consisted of hundreds of women who were met with water canons and beatings by Egyptian security forces.

The wall was the starkest expression of the international boycott of Hamas imposed by the United States, Israel, and the European Union after Hamas won a majority of the seats in the Palestinian Legislative Council elections of January 2006 and formed a government the following March. Hamas has been in sole control of the Gaza Strip after it executed a coup d'état against Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in June 2007. Since then, Israel has tightened the siege of Gaza which had been in effect since June 2006.

In response, Hamas and Palestinian Jihad militants have fired thousands of Qassam missiles on the town of Sderot and other Israeli population centers near the Gaza Strip. According to the 2007 annual report of B'Tselem, the Israeli human rights organization, Hamas and Jihad killed twenty-four Israeli civilians in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip during 2006 and 2007 and thirteen Israeli military personnel.

In retaliation, Israel escalated the pace of its targeted assassinations of Hamas and Jihad militants, killing hundreds of civilians in the process. Based on B'Tselem's 2007 annual report, a Ha-Aretz investigation (Jan. 14, 2008) concluded that Israeli forces killed 816 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip during 2006 and 2007; at least 360 of them were civilians not affiliated with any armed organizations; 152 of the casualties were under age 18, and 48 were under the age of 14.

Despite the siege, Israel continued to provide electricity and water to the Gaza Strip, allowing people to live on the edge of survival, hoping that the economic pressure would bring down the Hamas government. Half the population now depends on charity handouts from the UN refugee relief organization and other humanitarian NGOs. Four days before the wall came crashing down, Israel sharply cut back fuel and water supplies, imposing a harsh collective punishment on the entire population of 1.5 million.

According to Ha-Aretz columnist Amira Hass (Jan. 24, 2008), for several months Hamas leaders had been discussing measures to end Gaza's torment, described by Rela Mazali, an Israeli feminist peace activist with the New Profile organization and an editor of Jewish Peace News, as "an abomination." Apparently, Hamas decided that four days of hermetic closure, following months of siege, created conditions in which Egypt and the international community would be willing to accept bringing down the wall. Hamas did not take official responsibility for blowing up the wall, but praised the action.

The Egyptian press reported that, several days before the wall was blown up, the General Guide of the Muslim Brothers, the largest opposition force in Egypt, spoke by telephone to Khaled Mash'al, the head of the Political Bureau of Hamas who resides in Damascus. Hamas emerged from the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brothers; and there is a high likelihood that the actions of the two organizations were coordinated. Following this consultation, the Brothers began to organize demonstrations throughout Egypt beginning on Friday, Jan. 18. The number of its supporters in the street gradually increased, culminating on Wednesday. Jan. 23. That morning, thousands of Egyptian security forces surrounded Tahrir Square in downtown Cairo and arrested hundreds (according to some reports thousands) of people who were attempting to demonstrate in solidarity with the people of Gaza. The demonstration was supported by both the Muslim Brothers and secular nationalists.

Meanwhile, at Rafah, Egyptian security forces initially tried to stop the Palestinians from streaming across the border. But as the numbers swelled to tens of thousands, the government had no choice but to acquiesce. President Hosni Mubarak told journalists that he had instructed the security forces to: "Let them come in to eat and buy food" and return "as long as they are not carrying weapons."

What are the implications of these developments?

It appears that the Annapolis summit and the sham "peace process" it was supposed to have reinvigorated are dead -- killed by tens of thousands of unarmed Palestinians crossing the boarder into Egypt to meet their basic human needs. Shortly before President George W. Bush's visit to the Middle East, Israel began an expanded campaign of pressure on the Gaza Strip, including an escalation in targeted assassinations. Hamas has sent several signals that it was prepared for an informal ceasefire with Israel. But the political perspective articulated at Annapolis and its aftermath requires that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas cooperate with Israel in crushing Hamas rather than try to restore Palestinian national unity. Egypt's task in this drama is to stand silently by.

This is an impossible task and cannot in any way contribute to peace. Even if Mahmud Abbas were to come to terms and sign an agreement with Israel, it would have no credibility and would be very short lived without some degree of approval and participation from Hamas. A government of national unity that represents all the factions of the Palestinian people is the only entity capable of signing a viable peace agreement with Israel.

The Israeli government led by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert opposes the kind of agreement that a Palestinian national unity government would demand, as has every previous government of Israel. Such an agreement would require recognition of Palestinian national rights rather than paternalistic "concessions" granted by a magnanimous but ultimately all-powerful Israel.

The limited capacity of the Egyptian government to acquiesce to this program has been exposed. The Mubarak regime would like very much to see Hamas crushed, since it is an ally of the Muslim Brothers, its most substantial domestic opposition force. But the Palestinian cause is too popular and emotional an issue in Egypt for Mubarak to appear to be assisting Israel in starving the people of Gaza. Moreover, some of the demonstrations in solidarity with Gaza also raised slogans against the drastic rise in the price of food in recent months and against Husni Mubarak himself. Opposition demonstrations linking the Palestine cause with domestic economic issues and autocracy have the potential to threaten a regime whose legitimacy is already minimal.

Palestine, Israel, and Egypt after the fall of the Gaza wall are more unstable than before. It is desirable, but alas unlikely, that this instability will bring the leaderships to their senses and impel them to negotiate a just peace for the benefit of all. But it is more likely that Olmert, Abbas, and Mubarak -- all weak and discredited leaders -- will seek to hold onto power by clinging to the United States, which has a long record of opposing Palestinian-Israeli peace. The people of the Gaza Strip have taken their survival into their own hands and have shown that the power of ordinary people is more likely to shape the future than polished diplomatic formulas.

Joel Beinin

Cairo, Jan. 24, 2008

---

Joel Beinin is Professor of Middle East History at Stanford University. Beinin's article was posted to the mailing list of Jewish Voice for Peace.

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OSC: HAMAS-Iraq Launches 'Avenging Gaza' Campaign Against US Forces in Iraq

The USG Open Source Center summarizes and translates a posting on a jihadi web site of Iraqi guerrillas vowing to "avenge Gaza" by targeting American troops and the Iraqis that cooperate with them.

'HAMAS-Iraq Launches 'Avenging Gaza' Campaign Against US Forces in Iraq 19 Jan
Jihadist Websites -- OSC Summary
Thursday, January 24, 2008 . . .

Terrorism: HAMAS-Iraq Launches 'Avenging Gaza' Campaign Against US Forces 19 Jan On 19 January, a forum participant posted to a jihadist website a statement issued by the Al-Fatah al-Islami Command, the military wing of the Islamic Resistance Movement, HAMAS-Iraq, in which the group announced the launch of a one-week military campaign for 'avenging Gaza.' According to the group, the campaign targets the US Army. The statement was attributed to the Media Center of the Islamic Resistance Movement, HAMAS-Iraq.

A translation of the statement follows:

"In the Name of God the Merciful, the Compassionate.

"'Verily, We have granted thee a manifest Victory.' (Koranic verse, Al-Fath 48:1)

"Statement Number 134

"Week for Avenging Gaza

"As stated in the authenticated Hadith, the Prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him, stated: 'Believers are supporting each other, like a structured building. Then, the Prophet, peace be upon him, crossed his fingers.' Ibn Kathir, may god enfold him in His mercy, stated: 'When God mentioned the notorious attributes of the hypocrites, He coupled that with mentioning the good attributes of the believers by saying: The Believers, men and women, are protectors one of another (Koranic verse, Al-Tawbah 9:71).' (Ibn Kathir's explanation of the Holy Koran; volume 2, page 370).

"Pursuant to these divine instructions, and due to the economic embargo and military aggression that are condoned by the American enemy and that our people are suffering in Gaza, the Al-Fatah al-Islami Command, the military wing of the Islamic Resistance Movement, HAMAS-Iraq, has decided to dedicate the current week to avenging Gaza. In this statement, the command calls on all military sectors to exert the maximum effort to inflict the heaviest casualties on the occupation and its quislings, considering the loss among the American enemy ranks a loss among the Zionist entity occupation forces.

"God is the Greatest. But honor belongs to Allah and His Messenger, and to the Believers; but the Hypocrites know not.' (partial Koranic verse, Al-Munafiqun 63:08)

"The Media Center

"Islamic Resistance Movement

"HAMAS-Iraq

"11 Muharram 1429, corresponding to 19 January 2008."
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159 Killed or Wounded in Massive Mosul Blast; Dems take on Bush over Iraq SOFA

Guerrillas were stockpiling munitions in an unoccupied building in the Zanjabili district near the Houston-sized northern city of Mosul. Someone informed the Iraqi security forces of the stockpile, and apparently the guerrillas had good intelligence on such things, so they blew up the arms warehouse to deny it to their foes. It blasted surrounding apartment buildings, killing 17 persons and wounding 132, including women and children. It reverberated through the city as no explosion ever had before. The casualty toll is likely to rise, since there were still people trapped under rubble at the site of the massive explosion.

[What amazes me is that at this late date, the guerrillas still have enormous munitions stockpiles of which the US and the Iraqi government remain ignorant.]

According to al-Bawaba and AP, at Tuz Khurmato, half hour drive outside the northern oil city of Kirkuk, a car bomber killed 7 and wounded 16.

In Baghdad itself, guerrillas attacked an army checkpoint in Bab al-Mudham, east of the Tigris, killing 7 soldiers and wounding 2.

Al-Bawaba adds: "Meanwhile, at least six members of an Iraqi family died in the city of Baquba, reports said Wednesday. The independent Iraqi news agency Voices of Iraq said suspected members of the al-Qaeda network attacked the house in the Behrez area, south of Baquba. They kidnapped the Iraqi civilian and five other members of his family. Security sources later found their corpses in a nearby district, the news agency said. "

The Democrats in Congress are mobilizing to stop Bush from concluding a security agreement with the Iraqi government that may tie the hands of the next president. They insist that any such agreement must pass through Congress. The White House appears to view the pact as a mere Status of Forces Agreement, and such SOFAs are typically concluded by the executive. Congress is interpreting the agreement not as a SOFA but as a mutual security treaty, which would require congressional approval.

Ironically, many in the Iraqi parliament are also upset that PM Nuri al-Maliki may initial the agreement without consulting them.

The real news is that Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will visit Baghdad. After the long, gruelling Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988, this is the first such high-level from Tehran to Baghdad. Prime ministers Ibrahim Jaafari and Nuri al-Maliki of Iraq have visited Iran.

The news satire is, "In other news, Columbia University President Lee Bollinger surfaced in Baghdad, today, insisting that he was going to introduce Ahmadinejad before the Iraqi parliament. He warned the parliamentarians not to get in his way, or they would be in for quote 'such a tongue-lashing' unquote."

McClatchy reports other political violence in Iraq on Thursday:

' Baghdad

- Around 9 a.m., a roadside bomb exploded at Mansour neighborhood ( west Baghdad) at district 605. Some commercial shops damaged in that incident with no casualties recorded.

- Around 12 p.m., gunmen opened fire on an army check point . . . [see above].

- Around 12.30, a roadside bomb exploded at Zafaraniyah neighborhood (south Baghdad). No casualties reported.

- Around 3 p.m., gunmen assassinated the dean of Dental medicine, Munthir Ridha, at University of Baghdad.

- Police found ( 4 ) unidentified dead bodies . . .

Mosul

- Tuesday evening, gunmen assassinated Ali Suleiman Mohammad, a lecturer at Mosul university on his way home from a mosque to Wihda neighborhood in downtown Mosul .

- Tuesday , a squad of the Iraqi army killed a gunman in Mosul city and confiscated his car. . .

Diyala

- Wednesday afternoon, a roadside bomb targeted AlHay neighborhood ( downtown Baquba) near one of the quarters of the Sahwa [Awakening]council injuring two members of the Sahwa .

Kirkuk - Tuesday evening, a roadside bomb targeted the head of Kirkuk police operation centre, Colonel Yadgar Shukr Abdu Allah . . .

Basra

- Around 7 p.m., gunmen kidnapped an engineer ( Ali Mahmood ) from his house at the Basra international camp ( north west Basra), police said.

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Mr. Olmert, Tear Down this Wall!

The Egyptian government mounted a small demonstration of defiance of the Olmert government in Israel on Thursday. Palestinians destroyed the blast walls that artificially box them in to the tiny, slummy Gaza Strip and cut them off from their natural markets in Egypt. Perhaps a fourth of Gaza's population then flooded into the nearby Egyptian city of Rafah to buy food and supplies, breaking the Israeli blockade on these innocent civilians.

Egypt's president, Hosni Mubarak, appears to have ordered Egyptian troops not to interfere, though he did try to block Palestinians from traveling into Egypt from Rafah.

Helena Cobban has insight and analysis on this issue, blaming the fiasco in part on Bush's recent clumsy visit to the region.

See also Richard Silverstein.

And here is the video:


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935 False Statements that Led a Nation to War

The Center for Public Integrity has published a study finding that

'President George W. Bush and seven of his administration's top officials, including Vice President Dick Cheney, National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, made at least 935 false statements in the two years following September 11, 2001, about the national security threat posed by Saddam Hussein's Iraq. Nearly five years after the U.S. invasion of Iraq, an exhaustive examination of the record shows that the statements were part of an orchestrated campaign that effectively galvanized public opinion and, in the process, led the nation to war under decidedly false pretenses.

On at least 532 separate occasions (in speeches, briefings, interviews, testimony, and the like), Bush and these three key officials, along with Secretary of State Colin Powell, Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, and White House press secretaries Ari Fleischer and Scott McClellan, stated unequivocally that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction (or was trying to produce or obtain them), links to Al Qaeda, or both. This concerted effort was the underpinning of the Bush administration's case for war. '

Although the study starts out in a neutral tone, as you read, it becomes clear that the authors think the database of administration statements they have compiled shows a deliberate pattern of misrepresentation.

The study won't create a lot of controversy, since the American people long ago concluded that BushCo had lied us into a destructive and dangerous quagmire of a war. But it is nice to see someone nail down the specifics of the Goebbels-like propaganda campaign that was run on us.

The report continues,

' # On August 26, 2002, in an address to the national convention of the Veteran of Foreign Wars, Cheney flatly declared: "Simply stated, there is no doubt that Saddam Hussein now has weapons of mass destruction. There is no doubt he is amassing them to use against our friends, against our allies, and against us." In fact, former CIA Director George Tenet later recalled, Cheney's assertions went well beyond his agency's assessments at the time. Another CIA official, referring to the same speech, told journalist Ron Suskind, "Our reaction was, 'Where is he getting this stuff from?' "

# In the closing days of September 2002, with a congressional vote fast approaching on authorizing the use of military force in Iraq, Bush told the nation in his weekly radio address: "The Iraqi regime possesses biological and chemical weapons, is rebuilding the facilities to make more and, according to the British government, could launch a biological or chemical attack in as little as 45 minutes after the order is given. . . . This regime is seeking a nuclear bomb, and with fissile material could build one within a year." A few days later, similar findings were also included in a much-hurried National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction — an analysis that hadn't been done in years, as the intelligence community had deemed it unnecessary and the White House hadn't requested it.

# In July 2002, Rumsfeld had a one-word answer for reporters who asked whether Iraq had relationships with Al Qaeda terrorists: "Sure." In fact, an assessment issued that same month by the Defense Intelligence Agency (and confirmed weeks later by CIA Director Tenet) found an absence of "compelling evidence demonstrating direct cooperation between the government of Iraq and Al Qaeda." What's more, an earlier DIA assessment said that "the nature of the regime's relationship with Al Qaeda is unclear."

# On May 29, 2003, in an interview with Polish TV, President Bush declared: "We found the weapons of mass destruction. We found biological laboratories." But as journalist Bob Woodward reported in State of Denial, days earlier a team of civilian experts dispatched to examine the two mobile labs found in Iraq had concluded in a field report that the labs were not for biological weapons. The team's final report, completed the following month, concluded that the labs had probably been used to manufacture hydrogen for weather balloons.

# On January 28, 2003, in his annual State of the Union address, Bush asserted: "The British government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa. Our intelligence sources tell us that he has attempted to purchase high-strength aluminum tubes suitable for nuclear weapons production." Two weeks earlier, an analyst with the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research sent an email to colleagues in the intelligence community laying out why he believed the uranium-purchase agreement "probably is a hoax." '

Read the whole thing.

I first realized that the full propaganda apparatus had been deployed when I saw Donald Rumsfeld on television in April of 2003 actually denying that there was any mass looting in Iraq, and maintaining that CNN was looping one guy with a vase over and over again. How many vases can they have, he asked. I thought, "these are not the 'droids you're looking for."

See also Chalmers Johnson at Tomdispatch on "How to Sink America," an argument that Bush's profligate military spending is not unconnected to our economic crisis. Johnson's Nemesis is now in paperback.

Farideh Farhi at our collective Global Affairs blog on a new challenge to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from the Iranian parliament.

At the Napoleon's Egypt blog, letters of Bonaparte during his invasion of Palestine, then part of Ottoman Syria.
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Barzani charges Michael Rubin with Libel

The USG Open Source Center translates a letter from Kurdistan Regional Authority leader Massoud Barzani slamming the Hawlati newspaper for having published in Kurdish an article by Neoconservative operative Michael Rubin of the American Enterprise Institute, which had accused Barzani and Iraqi president Jalal Talabani of embezzling large sums of money. Barzani offers to give half of the money Rubin charged him with squirreling away to Rubin if the latter can give proof of his charges. There had been reports that Jalal Talabani was suing Hawlati for libel over the Rubin piece. Rubin is very close to the Turkish generals in Ankara, as part of his zeal for ensuring Turkey remains a close ally of Israel. The Richard Perle faction of Neoconservatives to which Rubin belongs has had lucrative consultancy deals with Turkey. By the way, Rubin served in Doug Feith's "Office of Special Plans" that played a role in generating the 935 falsehoods on the basis of which we went to war. The FBI has never properly investigated his activities in that regard.

Iraqi Kurdistan President's Office responds to article on his wealth
Hawlati
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Document Type: OSC Translated Text . . .

Iraqi Kurdistan President's Office responds to article on his wealth

Text of report entitled: "Text of message from President Barzani's office"; published by independent Iraqi Kurdish newspaper Hawlati on 20 January

To the editor in-chief of Hawlati newspaper, Honourable Kak (honorific) Abd Arif:

Greetings and regards,

Hawlati newspaper published, on 13 January 2008, in issue No 378, a report by Michael Rubin in which he says that (Kurdistan Region President Mas'ud) Barzani possesses 2bn dollars and (the Iraqi President Jalal) Talabani possesses 400m dollars.

For your information, supported and financed by the enemies of Kurds, Michael Rubin's job in Washington is simply to give bad image of the Kurds. Therefore, what can you expect from somebody whose job is only to be in opposition to the Kurds?

The publication of the report, and in such a poisonous way, proves that you have good ties with Rubin. Therefore, we would like you to contact him again, in order for him to show us where the money is and then we are ready to give you and Michael Rubin half of the sum (1bn dollars) (original parenthesis as published).

It is not strange when Michael Rubin attacks the Kurdish leadership. The strange thing is your publication of the poison he has poured out. Whom do you serve by doing this?

(Issued by) The spokesman of President Barzani's office

(Description of Source: Al-Sulaymaniyah Hawlati in Sorani Kurdish -- weekly independent newspaper)

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2 US Troops Killed; 20 Injured in School Blast; Assassination Attempt Kills 18; Weekend Cult Casualty toll 278

On Tuesday morning in Iraq, a suicide bomber walked into a school in downtown Baquba and detonated his payload, killing a guard and wounding 20 students and teachers. Baquba, a city of 200,000, is the capital of the key Diyala Province that lies between Baghdad and Iran. It is a mixed province, some 60% Sunni Arab but with substantial Shiite and Kurdish populations. A Shiite provincial government and police rule the province.

See the last item today, below, for a horrific attack Monday on a school in a Diyala village, which appears to have destroyed it altogether.

A suicide bomber attempted to assassinate the security deputy of Salahuddin Province on Monday, blowing himself up inside a tent set up for a local wake, which the security official was attending. He escaped, but the bomb killed at least 18 and wounded 20 among the 70 mourners gathered on the occasion.

AP observes,

' the latest of a series of deadly attacks fast chipping away at the notion of a calmer Iraq. The bombing also gave credence to repeated assertions by the US military that the fight against Al-Qaeda in not over yet. Significantly, Monday's bombing was the third in as many days to take place in Sunni areas thought to be have been largely rid of Al-Qaeda militants.'

Meanwhile, Patrick Cockburn of The Independent reports that 278 persons were killed or wounded in the millenarian uprising this wweekend in Basra and Nasiriya.

He observes,

' It is a measure of the lack of information on what is happening outside central Baghdad that casualty figures vary widely with one source claiming that 97 died and 217 were wounded in Basra alone. '

What is clear is that Iraq is extremely violent and unstable and that there is no discernible political progress.

Craig and Marc Kielburger have good suggestions on "How the Iraq war's $2 trillion cost to U.S. could have been spent"

Jonathan Steele at the Guardian is writing about how clueless the British government was as it went into southern Iraq in 2002 - 2003. They had not had an embassy in Baghdad since the Gulf War, and do not seem to have known who the Sadr ayatollahs were or how powerful the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq was (it likely planned and led the spring, 1991 insurrection that temporarily threw off Baath rule).

The series is here: "Guys I'm afraid we haven't got a clue" and here: 'Britain as inept as US'.

The Reuters reports other political violence on Monday, or announced on Monday.

'ANBAR PROVINCE - A U.S. Marine was killed during combat operations in western Anbar province on Saturday, the U.S. military said.

BAGHDAD - One U.S. soldier was killed by a roadside bomb in Arab Jabour on Baghdad's southern outskirts, the U.S. military said. . . [This unfortunate death occurred despite the deployment of a heavily armored new vehicle, as the NYT explains here.

BAGHDAD - Three people were wounded by a roadside bomb which exploded after a U.S. patrol went by in eastern Baghdad's Baladiyat district, police said. . .

QAIYARA - Two people were killed and nine wounded by a bomb in a parked car targeting an Iraqi army patrol in the town of Qaiyara near Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

NEAR FALLUJA - Gunmen killed four members of a U.S.-backed neighbourhood police patrol and wounded two others in an attack on a checkpoint near Falluja, 50 km (30 miles) west of Baghdad, police said. Two of the gunmen were killed when police at the checkpoint returned fire.

McClatchy adds:

' Baghdad

An IED exploded targeting a US convoy near al Nosoor square west Baghdad around 8,00 am. No casualties reported.

Around 8,15 am, two mortar shells hit Owereeg industrial area south Baghdad causing no casualties. . .

Two road side bombs (2 bottles filled with explosive materials) exploded near al Qubbanchi mosque in Harthyah neighborhood south Baghdad around 1,00 pm. No casualties reported.

Police found seven anonymous bodies in Baghdad today. . .

Sulaimaniyah

Gunmen killed attacked a house in Kalar village 140 kms south of Sulaimaniyah province yesterday night killing a 35 years old mother and her 13 years old daughter. . .

Diyala

Two policemen were wounded in an IED explosion that targeted their patrol in Muqdadiyah town east of Baquba city today afternoon.

Gunmen destroyed with explosives Mecca al Mukarrama primary school and a house in al Malali village, part of Wajihiyah district east of Baquba city today afternoon. The gunmen burnt also al-Malali mosque.'

The NYT profiles intrepid war blogger Michael Yon. It is nice to see his 'citizen journalism' recognized by the mainstream. (Isn't that a fancy phrase for 'blogger'?)
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Iraq Dominates Testy Dem Debate

Iraq as an issue was back front and center in Iraq on Monday in the South Carolina presidential debate among the Democratic candidates.

Barack Obama complained that his record of opposing the Iraq War had been distorted by Bill Clinton, who had called the image of steadfast consistency on Obama's part in that regard a 'fairy tale.'

Clinton replied that Obama took down his anti-war speech from his web site and voted several times to fund the war once he was in the senate.

[I don't believe either of these criticisms is fair. No Democrat voted actually to continue the war. They voted for the only budget they could get past the Republicans. Clinton is just desperate to remove Barack's advantage with the left of the party, which is that he has all along been far more anti-war than she. If her point was that once he was in the senate, Obama was constrained by political reality just as she was, she should say that rather than suggesting that he wasn't steadfastly anti-war. Moreover, there is a difference between being forced to vote a budget that contains things you don't like and actively voting for things like war authorization and Kyl-Lieberman.]

All three candidates pledged to end the war if elected, though none seemed eager to just pull up stakes and get out immediately and risk all hell breaking loose. This is a good sign, since getting out of Iraq in such a way that it doesn't send the Oil Gulf up in flames won't be easy.

Their consensus was that the troop escalation or 'surge' hasn't really worked since its goal was to create space for political compromise, and not much of that is in evidence.

The low point was when Clinton and Obama smeared each other with 'Walmart' and 'slumlord,' respectively.

I think Obama won the debate on points.

A transcript of Monday's debate is here.

The Iraq-related bits are here:

'OBAMA: George Bush has consistently skewed our tax code to the wealthy. He has squandered billions of dollars in a war that I believe should never have been authorized and should have never been waged. . .

OBAMA: And I think that part of what the people are looking for right now is somebody who's going to solve problems and not resort to the same typical politics that we've seen in Washington.

(APPLAUSE)

That is something that I hear all across the country. So when Senator Clinton says -- or President Clinton says that I wasn't opposed to the war from the start or says it's a fairytale that I opposed the war, that is simply not true.'

and this:

'Clinton: 'And I want to be just very explicit about this. We are not, neither my campaign nor anyone associated with it, are in any way saying you did not oppose the war in Iraq.

CLINTON: You did. You gave a great speech in 2002 opposing the war in Iraq. That was not what the point of our criticism was.

It was after having given that speech, by the next year the speech was off your Web site. By the next year, you were telling reporters that you agreed with President Bush in his conduct of the war. And by the next year, when you were in the Senate, you were voting to fund the war time after time after time.

BLITZER: All right.

CLINTON: So it was more about the distinction between words and action. And I think that is a fair assessment for voters to make. '

Then there is this:

' JOHNS: Senator Clinton, on the Iraq question, we're here in South Carolina. It's a big military state with a lot of military families. Last week, U.S. military commanders on the ground in Iraq said that Baghdad is now 75 percent secured. There's also important signs of political progress, including de-Baathification, which was basically long awaited. That, of course, was a big benchmark.

Last week, you said the next president will, quote, "have a war to end in Iraq." In light of the new military and political progress on the ground there in Iraq, are you looking to end this war or win it?

CLINTON: I'm looking to bring our troops home, starting within 60 days of my becoming president, and here's why, Joe. I have the greatest admiration for the American military. I serve on the Senate Armed Services Committee. I've been to Iraq three times. I've met with the leaders of the various factions. But there is no military solution, and our young men and women should not remain as the referees of their conflict.

I believe what you're seeing happen is twofold. Of course the surge, the so-called surge, was able to pacify certain parts of Iraq. If we put enough of our men and women and equipment in, we're going to be able to have some tactical military success. But the whole purpose of the surge was to force the Iraqi government to move quickly towards the kind of resolution that only it can bring about.

I think what is motivating the Iraqi government is the debate in the political campaign here. They know they will no longer have a blank check from George Bush, that I will with draw troops from Iraq. And I believe that will put even more pressure on the Iraqis to finally make the decisions that they have to make.

It is not going to be easy. Withdrawing troops is dangerous. That's why I've been working to make sure that we knew all of the various steps we would have to take, because it's not just bringing our troops and equipment home. We have more than 100,000 civilians there, working for the embassy, working for businesses, working for charities.

We have a lot of Iraqis who sided with us, translators and drivers who put their lives on the line for American military forces. So this is complicated, but I'm committed to withdraw our troops and to put the Iraqi government on notice that their time is running out.

CLINTON: And they have to make these tough decisions.'

And then there was this outbreak of unity on ending the war and getting the troops out as carefully as possible:

' BLITZER: I'm going to let Senator Obama respond, too.

But, Senator Edwards, Senator John McCain, the Republican presidential candidate, he supported the surge from the beginning. I think all three of you opposed the surge from the beginning. He says now the surge is working, there's military progress, the level of violence has gone down, and that the United States must not surrender in Iraq. It must win that war in Iraq.

Why do you believe Senator McCain is wrong?

EDWARDS: He's wrong because George Bush himself said the entire reason for the surge was to create an environment for political progress. Everyone from the Iraq Study Group, to even Bush recognized -- and if Bush recognizes it, man, it's really got to be out there.

(LAUGHTER)

EDWARDS: Even President Bush recognizes that unless the Sunni and Shia reach some political reconciliation, there cannot be stability in Iraq. And the problem with this definition and evaluation of where the progress has been made is that there has been no meaningful political progress.

There has been a little bit, in fairness. A little bit, but very little. And I don't think it changes anything.

The one thing I would say is -- and I would actually like for both of them to have a chance to respond to is this -- what I have said very clearly, all of us has said, we would end the war. And I don't have any doubt that all of us are committed to that, I don't doubt that. But how aggressively and how quickly is an important question.

And I have said in the first year that I am president, I will have all combat troops out of Iraq. All combat missions will end in Iraq, and there will be no permanent military bases in Iraq.

(APPLAUSE)

EDWARDS: I have not heard -- now, admittedly, just to be fair, I don't hear everything they say on the campaign trail, but I have not heard either of them say that definitively. So I would be interested in knowing whether they will commit to having all combat troops out and ending combat missions in the first year.

BLITZER: Senator Obama?

OBAMA: John, what I have said, and I've said repeatedly, is I want to be as careful getting out as we were careless getting in, but I want to make sure that we get all our combat troops out as quickly as we can safely. Now, the estimates are maybe that's two brigades per month. At that pace it would be some time in 2009 that we had our combat troops out, depending on whether Bush follows through on his commitment to draw down from the surge.

We don't know that yet, but understand what's at stake here. John is exactly right that the question is, how do we create a stable Iraqi government where our troops are not required to remain permanent bases in -- and a permanent occupation in Iraq?

We are spending $9 billion to $10 billion every month. That's money that could be going right here in South Carolina to lay broadband lines in rural communities, to put kids back to school.

And so when John McCain says we'll be there for 50 or 60 or 100 years, it is not just the loss of life, which is obviously the most tragic aspect of it, it's also the fact that financially it is unsustainable. We will have spent $2 trillion at least, it's estimated, by the time this whole thing is over. That's enough to have rebuilt every road, bridge, hospital, school in America, and still have money left over.

(APPLAUSE)

BLITZER: All right.

OBAMA: But just one last point I want to make.

We are seeing Al Qaida stronger now than at any time since 2001. That is a significant threat that has to be dealt with. Because we have been distracted, we have ended up seeing a more dangerous situation, and so we are not -- this is not just a matter of who is right and who is wrong about having gone to war or the surge. It's also, how do we deal with the future threats? And as long as we're bogged down in Iraq, we are not going to be able to deal with those future threats.

BLITZER: Senator Clinton, do you want to respond to Senator Edwards asking you whether you're ready to commit to all combat troops being out of Iraq within a year?

CLINTON: What I have said is that I will move as quickly as possible. I hope to have nearly all out within a year.

We don't know what we're going to inherent from President Bush, but there is a big problem looming on the horizon that we had better pay attention to, and that is President Bush is intent upon negotiating a long-term agreement with Iraq which would have permanent bases, permanent troop presence. And he claims he does not need to come to the United States Congress to get permission, he only needs to go to the Iraqi parliament.

That is his stated public position. He was recently in the region, and it is clear that he intends to push forward on this to try to bind the United States government and his successor to his failed policy.

I have been strongly opposed to that. We should not be planning permanent bases and long-term troop commitments.

CLINTON: Obviously, we've got to rein in...

(APPLAUSE)

... President Bush. And I've proposed legislation and I know that members of the Congressional Black Caucus are looking at this, as well. We need legislation in a hurry which says, "No, Mr. Bush, you are the president of the United States of America. You cannot bind our country without coming to the United States Congress." This is a treaty...

(APPLAUSE)

... that would have to be presented and approved, and it will not be. '

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