Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Thursday, December 31, 2009

Eugene Robinson - Dick Cheney's lies about President Obama - washingtonpost.com

Eugene Robinson - Dick Cheney's lies about President Obama - washingtonpost.com

Excellent demolition of Dick Cheney's shameful attack on the president in the wake of the Detroit attempted attack.

Cheney wanted to use the nonsensically phrased 'war on terror' as a wedge to destroy the Bill of Rights and permanently undermine the US constitution, and is annoyed that all the groundwork he laid for the return of rightwing monarchy has been sensibly tossed aside by the constitutional lawyer who succeeded him.

All this is not to mention that there can be more or fewer Muslims radicalized and that no one made America more vulnerable to attack than Cheney:

  • Torture at Guantanamo

  • Denial of habeas corpus

  • illegal invasion and occupation of Iraq

  • the atrocity of the attack on Falluja


    These are the standard grievances in the al-Qaeda recruitment videos. All of them contravene basic American values.

    So, Mr. Cheney, you don't make America safer with terminology, blustering about 'war on terror.' Living up to American values of no military aggression and basic civil rights and condemnation of cruel and unusual punishment-- just being real Americans would deprive al-Qaeda of most of its current recruitment tools.

    In fact, as the Cheney legacy has begun to fade, al-Qaeda is facing problems with recruitment. One problem for them is that family and friends increasingly turn the jihadi in. That is what happened to Abdulmutallab and it would have foiled his mission if Cheney had devoted more energy to interagency cooperation during the last 8 years.

    The reason that Muslims turn in a relative or friend who goes off the deep end about America is that they know America is not evil.

    Cheney's methods and values are aimed at convincing them otherwise.

    Cheney turned on the American values of the Founding Fathers in the 1970s, when he was defending Tricky Dick Nixon and a quagmire in southeast Asia, and he has only gone further and further toward the Dark Side ever since.

    If we can't try him, can't we at least try to get him North Korean citizenship, since he seems to like authoritarian values better than American ones? Plus, he and Kim Jong-Il both like pretending they are James Bond-- they'd get along famously.


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    The Regime Strikes Back;
    Massive Pro-Khamenei Rally in Tehran

    Today's dramatic events in Iran reminded me a little bit of the dueling demonstrations mounted by the Lebanese in spring of 2005, when pro-Syrian forces brought out nearly 1,000,000 protesters, only to be answered by crowds nearly as large mobilized by Hizbullah. In Iran on Wednesday, the regime bussed in tens of thousands of supporters, with banners and placards, who chanted in favor of the hard-liners. Traditional preachers assured the faithful that the holy day of Ashura belonged solely to the religious the observant, a way of slamming the political opposition as atheists in mullahs’ clothing.

    AP has video, and mentions pro-government rallies in Shiraz, Arak and other provincial cities, as well.



    Some of the demonstrators wore white burial shrouds to announce their willingness to die for supreme leader Khamenei. Others chanted slogans denouncing the dissidents as apostates, that is as persons who had abandoned Islam and therefore deserved the death penalty. Some said, "Death to Mousavi, Death to Karroubi," the opposition leaders. A leading cleric from the eastern city of Mashhad, Sayyed Ahmad Alam ol-Hoda warned that the political opposition had veered into becoming enemies of or warriors against the Islamic state and therefore of God, and thereby warranted trial and execution. He threatened them with chastisement not only at the hands of the state security forces but also those of the people-- that is, he menaced the green movement with vigilante, KKK-type popular attacks. The Green Movement characterized his speech as an attempt to radicalize the country.

    The regime therefore not only engaged in counter mobilization, but it also took steps to completely deny legitimacy to the dissidents, with hard-liners threatening to turn the leaders of the green movement into fugitives and common criminals. FT reports that a Revolutionary Guards site said Mousavi was under house arrest. Indeed, rumors were spread around that former presidential candidates Mir Hosain Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi had fled Tehran to points north. This attempt to demoralize the opposition by suggesting that their leaders had abandoned them largely failed, since dissident websites were quick to deny the rumors. They took revenge for the calumny by alleging that supreme leader Khamenei was keeping his private jet ready to fly him to Russia.

    The opposition also alleged that another prisoner-mistreatment scandal was brewing, with 500 prisoners arrested during Sunday's protests being mistreated at a facility at Eshratabad.

    It was a day then of a massive counter rally and of dueling propaganda jabs. Despite the pro-regime masses in the streets of the capital, the increasingly ominous threats of no more Mr. nice guy from the Tehran police chief, and the intimation by hard-line clerics that they would not scruple to return to the days of terror that marked the 1980s, it seems hard to believe that even regime stalwarts imagine that such measures will be sufficient to silence the opposition or to end the crisis that roils Iran with seeming greater ferocity every day

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    Wednesday, December 30, 2009

    Top Republican Myths about the Crotch Bomber Affair

    I hear these on tv or from Reps. Pete Hoekstra and Peter King and Sen. Joe Lieberman.

    1. President Obama did not speak publicly swiftly enough. In fact, Bush was silent for 9 days after the shoe bomber attack in 2001.

    2. Bush would have tried Abdulmutallab as an enemy combatant. Well, he tried Richard Reid the shoe bomber in civilian courts.

    3. Yemen is the issue. In fact, Yemen's government is actively bombing al-Qaeda cells, and complains that the US never shared its info on Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab with Sanaa.

    4. A US war on al-Qaeda in Yemen is next. This way of thinking is foolish. Yemen is not a cake walk, folks

    Col. Pat Lang, former Defense Intelligence Agrency head for the Middle East, is an old Yemen hand and delivers a blunt warning against the US getting militarily involved there.

    I have been to Yemen three times, before and after unification, and have traveled outside Sanaa. I've spoken publicly in Arabic in front of big audiences and interacted with Zaidis, Salafis, Sufis. It is an extremely complicated society with multiple ecological zones. It is an arid, tribal (segmentary-lineage) system. Most of the scholars I know who work on Yemen have been kidnapped by tribes or thrown in jail by the government at least once. People are either Arab nationalists or Muslim ones. They have very little use for outsiders. If the US tried to establish a big presence there, they would make the Iraqi resistance look half-hearted and weak-kneed.

    Anybody who thinks they are going to dominate this has another think coming:



    This is Maarib where al-Qaeda is said to be based:



    CBS News has video on al-Qaeda in Yemen:




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    Karachi Paralyzed After Major Arson, Sectarian Violence

    The bombing of a Shiite Ashura procession in Karachi, Pakistan, on Monday, which killed 40 and wounded 60-- as horrific as it was-- was only the beginning of the paralysis of this major port city and financial center larger than New York. In response to the bombing or encouraged by it, arsonists set fire to major markets.

    The News writes,

    "shops in the Lighthouse Market, Boulton Market, Paper Market and the adjoining areas were robbed and torched by miscreants. The police and eyewitnesses said a massive explosion rocked Lighthouse Chowrangi around 4.13pm. . . Within five to 10 minutes of the blast, nearby wholesale were attacked by unidentified people. The police said that more than 500 shops were robbed and torched in the Lighthouse Market alone. Within the span of an hour, public and private property at the Kharadar and Mithadar traffic sections, Boulton Market, Feroze Market, Akber Market, Paper Market, and warehouses in the plastic market and at 27 other places were robbed and set ablaze. Madina Ice Cream, Denso Hall, and the Kachi Gali Medicine Market were not spared either, nor was any mercy shown towards more than 30 other shops selling electronic items.


    When police and firemen came, they came under fire from the arsonists.

    Between 2000 and 3000 shops were gutted, with a loss of some 10,000 jobs and of $3.5 billion in property value. In the 1992 riots in Los Angeles, about 3600 fires were set, so it is on that scale.

    Some groups are calling for a general solidarity protest on Friday against the Sunni-Shiite violence, including Sunni clerics horrified at the anti-Shiite bombing.

    Aljazeera English has video:



    Interior Minister Rehman Malik correctly pointed out that an attempt to paralyze Karachi is an attempt to paralyze Pakistani commerce and finance. Unfortunately, as usual he hinted around that India was the hidden hand behind these events. Much more likely, they are internal Pakistani sectarian conflicts for which the Pakistani military, which has sometimes promoted hard line militant Sunni groups, ultimately bears some responsibility.

    These Karachi events show how complex the politics of Pakistan are. The Sunni-Shiite violence there is much more consequential than the Taliban issue in the northwest on which US attention is concentrated. And while it has been suggested that transplanted Pashtun Taliban in Karachi were behind the bombing, that theory has not been proved. (There were Sunni-Shiite problems in Karachi going back to the 1980s long before there were any Pakistani Taliban).

    What is encouraging is the level of solidarity among mainstream Sunni and Shiite organizations in Karachi, and the plans for a unity demonstration on Friday, both of which are on a scale far beyond what was seen in Iraq.

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    Tuesday, December 29, 2009

    Majority Of Tea Party Group's Spending Went To GOP Firm That Created It | TPMMuckraker

    Majority Of Tea Party Group's Spending Went To GOP Firm That Created It | TPMMuckraker

    So let us get this straight. Iran is capable of throwing up a genuine grassroots democratic movement.

    But supposed US populism is just a project of some corporation aimed at fleecing ordinary people.


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    Top Ten Middle East Crises, 2009

    10. Dubai, a financial hub of the Gulf, collapsed economically, and worries were raised that Dubai World could default on billions in loans. Only the likelihood that oil-rich sister emirate, Abu Dhabi, would likely bail Dubai out at least to some extent kept there from being a panic.

    9. That Iraq is still far from stable was demonstrated by two major bombing campaigns by the Sunni Arab resistance, in mid-August and in late October. Both blasts damaged government ministries, killed experienced diplomats and managers, and showed the vulnerability of the new government to concerted attack.

    8. Yemen fell apart, facing a Shiite Huthi rebellion in Saada, in which Saudi Arabia is now intervening, as well as tribal/ fundamentalist opposition and the reemergence of a vital al-Qaeda movement in Maarib. Conflict over water and other rural resources drives this descent into a failed state. This one spilled over on Detroit when al-Qaeda in Yemen responded to US and Yemeni army attacks on Maarib by targeting a Northwest Airliner on Christmas day.

    7. Pakistan's conflict in the rural, Pashtun Federally Administered Tribal Areas with militant Taliban spilled over into the more populous, urban, and religiously more open Punjab.

    6. Afghan President Hamid Karzai stole the presidential election of August, 2009, destroying the credibility of his government. The Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan grew in strength, to the point of forming a shadow government.

    5. A creeping coup by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps in Iran led to the stealing of the June presidential election by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The resulting combination of the most rightwing government seen in Iran since the 1980s and popular resistance threw the country into turmoil.

    4. Israel elected its most rightwing government in history, including Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, widely considered a racialist nationalist and loose canon, which promptly obstructed President Obama's renewed peace process

    3. Mahmoud Abbas, moderate president of the Palestine Authority, announced his intention to resign because there was no progress on peace negotiations with Israel, which refuses to cease colonizing Palestinian land in the West Bank and Jerusalem.

    2. Israel's Gaza War failed and discredited it, leading to the issuance of Goldstone report to the UN on Israeli war crimes. The outcome is major roadblock in the face of further peace negotiations.

    1. Meantime, Gazans live under Israeli blockade, lacking enough food, electricity and other services for a decent life, and there is no end in sight. A major recent Oxfam report [pdf] concludes that the world has failed Gaza and that a year later, Gaza's deliberately-destroyed infrastructure and buildings are mostly still in rubble and innocent Gazans continue to suffer. An international aid convoy is being blocked from entering Gaza by Israel, and Egypt insists it must come in through El Areesh. The Muslim world seethes at the news of Palestinian suffering in Gaza every night as the West ignores its plight.


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    Conflict Grows Between Pakistan's Taliban and Shi'ites

    Conflict Grows Between Pakistan's Taliban and Shi'ites - TIME

    Omar Waraich argues that Monday's horrific bombing in Karachi of a Shiite mourning procession signals a deepening Taliban/Shiite struggle in Pakistan.

    Pakistani analysts also considered that the bombing, which killed 40 and sparked riots in the country's largest city, may have been intended tactically to provoke sectarian conflict that would tie down the Pakistani army and impede its Waziristan campaign against the Taliban in the northwest.

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    Wave of Arrests in Iran

    The last of the demonstrators Monday morning were dispersed with tear gas in Iran's cities, and there were no major rallies yesterday. The authorities continued to make arrests among aides to the major reformist leaders, and even among the relatives of the latter. Reformist reports said that the sister of Nobel peace prize winner Shirin Ebedi, a prominent regime critic has been taken into custody even though he is not politically active. The body of Ali Mousavi, the 34-year-old nephew of opposition leader Mir Hosain Mousavi, was confiscated by the government authorities, apparently in order to prevent it from becoming a rallying point, given his martyrdom. Mir Hosain Mousavi charged the regime with deliberately murdering the young man. Three of his aides were arrested.

    Opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi had windows of his car broken out by assailants.

    Opposition figure Ibrahim Yazdi was also arrested, He had served in an early post-revolution cabinet and is now in poor health.

    President Obama condemned the brutal crackdown and called for the hundreds of prisoners of conscience to be released.

    There are other days in Muharram when crowds will come out, and on which there may be more rallies and violence. The opposition movement continues to unfold and expand, but in an oddly staccato way, impelled by those anniversaries that allow people legitimately to gather in the streets in large numbers.


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    Bush Administration Released Al Qaeda Leaders Who Plotted Detroit Attack To Art Therapy Rehabilitation Program

    Liberal Values: Bush Administration Released Al Qaeda Leaders Who Plotted Detroit Attack To Art Therapy Rehabilitation Program Liberal Values

    Well there isn't any doubt that the State Department under Condi Rice and Bush gave Abdulmutallab, the Nigerian terrorist, his multiple-entry US visa. And it was probably influenced by his family's wealth; rich people get visas easier. And, yes, Bush let the Yemeni al-Qaeda guys go from Guantanamo.

    But if some Republicans were not being so hypocritical as to try to blame the Dems for poor security, these things wouldn't be worth mentioning. Presumably the Guantanamo authorities had no evidence that could put the Yemeni al-Qaeda guys away, and there was no reason to deny Abdulmutallab a visa 18 months ago.


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    Statement on Airline Plot by al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula

    The USG Open Source Center translates the claim of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula to be behind the Christmas day bombing attempt against Northwest Flight 254 by the Nigerian Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab. For more on this organization, see Aljazeera's profile.

    Al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula Claims Attempted Attack in US
    Jihadist Websites -- OSC Summary
    Tuesday, December 29, 2009

    On 28 December, a forum participant posted a statement on a jihadist website from Al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula entitled "The Operation of the Mujahid Brother Umar al-Faruk Al-Nijiri in Response to the American Aggression Against Yemen."

    The group claims responsibility for the attempted attack on Northwest Airlines flight 253, saying that it was done "with direct coordination...with the mujahidin in the Arabian Peninsula after the savage bombardment of cluster bombs and cruise missiles launched from US ships occupying the Gulf of Aden against the courageous Yemeni tribes in Abyan, Arhab, and finally, Shabwah." The statement ends with a declaration of "total war against every Crusader" in the Arabian Peninsula. The statement was signed by the Al-Malahim Establishment for Media Production and Al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula, and disseminated by the Al-Fajr Media Center.

    A translation of the statement follows:

    "In the name of God, the Merciful, the Compassionate...

    " The Al-Qa'ida Organization in the Arabian Peninsula

    " The Operation of the Mujahid Brother Umar al-Faruk Al-Nijiri in Response to the American Aggression Against Yemen

    "Thanks be to God, who said: 'And fight them on until there is no more tumult or oppression, and there prevail justice and faith in Allah' (Partial Koranic verse, Al-Baqarah, 2:193).

    "Prayers and peace be upon the final prophet, who said: 'With a month's march I made fear victorious' (Hadith).

    "With the help of God, the heroic martyrdom-seeking mujahid brother Umar al-Faruk carried out an operation aboard a US flight from the Dutch city of Amsterdam to the US city of Detroit. This was during their celebration of Christmas on Friday 25 December 2009. He infiltrated all the modern and advanced tools and security checkpoints in the international airport with courage, not fearing death, and relying on God. With his great accomplishment he struck down the myths of the US and international intelligence. He exposed their fragility and forced their noses into the dust. He made them bemoan all that they spent in upgrading their security measures.

    "The unity of faith and Muslim fraternity are what drove this wealthy youth of Nigerian origin, the mujahid brother Umar al-Faruk, to respond directly to the unjust American aggression against the Arabian Peninsula. This was (done) with direct coordination (with the help of God) with the mujahidin in the Arabian Peninsula after the savage bombardment of cluster bombs and cruise missiles launched from US ships occupying the Gulf of Aden against the courageous Yemeni tribes in Abyan, Arhab, and finally, Shabwah, where they killed dozens of Muslim women, children, and entire families. This (US) operation was conducted with the cooperation of Yemen, the United States, Saudi Arabia, and other countries in the area.

    "The mujahidin brothers in the manufacturing division were able (with the help of God) to come up with a technically advanced (explosive) device. It was tested and proven successful and effective, and then passed through the detection machines. The martyrdom-seeking brother Umar (with the blessing of God) reached his target. However, God chose for a technical malfunction to lead to the entire device not detonating. We will continue on the path (God willing) until we achieve what we want, and until all religion is for God.

    "We call upon all Muslims who are jealous over their religion and creed to kill every Crusader who works at an embassy or elsewhere, and to declare an all-encompassing war on every Crusader in the peninsula of Muhammad (prayers and peace be upon him). We declare it as a total war against every Crusader in the peninsula of Muhammad (prayers and peace be upon him) on land, sea, and air.

    "We call on every soldier in the Crusader armies and the agent governments to repent to God and emulate the example of the heroic mujahid brother, Nidal Hasan, and to kill, with every possible means of killing, evey Crusader in support of the religion of God and to raise His word on Earth.

    "From here we say to the American people, that since you support your leaders and stand behind them in the killing of our women and children, you can look forward to what will befall you. We have come to slaughter you and have prepared for you men who love death just as much as you love life. God willing, we will come for you with what you cannot withstand. You will be killed just as you kill. Your day will come tomorrow. Those who are unjust will come to know their fate.

    "Oh God, keep the mujahid Umar al-Faruk steadfast on the truth and grant him multiple times more peace, patience, and steadfastness than the calamity that has befallen him. Oh God, relieve him and release him, and make for him a relief and an exit from where he does not expect it. Oh God, release him and Muslim prisoners all across the Earth unchanged, and keep them steadfast on the truth with all your mercy, for you are the most Merciful. Oh God, champion your mujahidin subjects everywhere, and defeat non-belief and its people. Our final prayer is thanks be to God, Lord of all creation.

    " Al-Malahim (Establishment for Media Production)

    " Al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula

    "Saturday, 9 Muharram 1431 Hijri (corresponding to 26 December 2009)" . . .

    "Pray for your brothers.

    "Source: Al-Fajr Media Center"


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    Monday, December 28, 2009

    Iran Roiled, Crowds Burn Banks, Police Station;
    Chanting against Theocrat Khamenei;
    But No Revolutionary Alternative Yet

    The BBC is reporting that clashes are continuing into Monday morning between protesters and the regime security forces in Tehran and perhaps other cities, marking the first decisive failure of the basij paramilitary to control the streets by early morning of the day of a big demonstration. The number of protesters allegedly killed by security men rose to 9, with dozens wounded and 300 persons allegedly arrested.

    This video shows protesters freeing others taken prisoner in a basij van:



    The chanting on Sunday turned against Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself, not just against President Ahmadinejad. He was castigated as the Dictator and as worse than the old shah, and the very ideological basis of the regime, the doctrine of clerical rule, was chanted against in the streets. The legitimacy of the regime, profoundly shaken by the events since early June's presidential election, is now being shredded further.

    Another remarkable dimension of Sunday's events was the sheer number of cities where significant rallies and clashes occurred. Some of those allegedly killed are said to have fallen in Tabriz, a northwestern metropolis near Turkey. Even conservative cities such as Isfahan and Mashhad joined in. Shiraz, Ardabil, the list goes on. The attempt of some analysts to paint the disturbances as a shi-shi North Tehran thing has clearly foundered.

    The most ominous sign of all for the regime is the reports of security men refusing orders to fire into the crowd.

    But for the movement to go further and become truly revolutionary, it would have to have a leader who wanted to overthrow the old regime and who could attract the loyalty of both the people and elements of the armed forces. So far this key revolutionary element, of dual sovereignty, has been lacking, insofar as opposition leaders Mir Hosain Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have tried to stay inside the Khomeinist framework while arguing that it is Khamenei who violated it by making it too authoritarian. Saying you want slightly less autocracy within a clerical theocracy is not a recipe for revolution.

    Najmeh Bozorgmehr reports from Tehran for the FT that on Sunday in the capital, crowds-- bigger than even some of those that assembled in June-- maintained their discipline and proved unassailable by the basij motorcycle and other crowd control techniques. She quotes people in the crowd urging demonstrators to stick together for this purpose. She must be suggesting that the crowds were several hundred thousand strong in the capital.

    Here is a typical Youtube video of Sunday's demonstrations in Tehran:



    Richard Spencer of the Independent reports from Dubai on the darker side of Sunday's events, as crowds went on rampages, setting fire to banks, government buildings and even a local police station in response to the use of live ammunition on them by security forces. They threw up barricades and set fire to them, as well as to basiji motorcycles, filling the streets with shooting flames and hovering smoke.

    Update: Iran's official PressTV confirms: ""Nine residential buildings, 9 vehicles, 7 shops, 2 banks and 3 power stations were set on fire [by anti-government protestors], " Tashakkor said. The Iranian official added that "18 garbage bins" were also set on fire.'

    The report of attacks on banks makes me think that there is an economic dimension to this uprising. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's profligate spending had provoked very high inflation last year, up to nearly 30%. Although the government maintains that inflation is now running 15%, that is still a hit that average families are taking, on top of the high prices of last year. And, many economists suspect that the true rate is higher than the government admits. Inflation hurts people on fixed incomes or people who cannot easily raise the price for the services they offer. Since much of the economy is locked up in government-owned companies or semi-public 'foundations' (bonyads), some controlled by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and others by elite pro-regime clerics, there may be a monopoly effect operating from the huge public sector that limits private merchants' and entrepreneurs ability to raise prices. Being 15-20 percent poorer every year would make a person angry.

    Moreover, as as Robert Worth recently reported, the government has been threatening to remove subsidies from staples. I was in Egypt in January of 1977 when President Anwar El Sadat stopped subsidies under pressure from the IMF, and it threw the country into 3 days of turmoil from Aswan to Alexandria. Iranians have been upset by this talk of no more subsidies and it may have fed economic anxieties already inflamed by the high inflation (in fact, removal of subsidies is essentially a form of price inflation for consumers).

    But values come into it, too. Farnaz Fassihi of the WSJ points out that the first month of the Muslim lunar calendar, Muharram, has been considered a month for truces and non-violence. The very name of the month means 'sanctified.' Even the brutal troops of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the shah or king overthrown in 1979, had not fired on crowds during Muharram. Opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi openly said that even the shah's regime had not behaved on Muharram as clerical Leader Ali Khamenei's had. Hint: in revolutionary Iran, that is a slam.

    The regime therefore violated crowd norms, helping account for the vehemence of the pushback.

    In Isfahan, security forces are said to have badly beaten and cursed the brother of Abdollah Nouri, the minister of state under the reformist government of former president Mohammad Khatami.

    The killing of Ali Mousavi, the 34-year-old nephew of former presidential candidate Mir Husain Mousavi, was also a violation of Shiite values. The Mousavis are putative descendants of the Prophet Muhammad, a sort of caste in Muslim societies called 'sayyid' or 'sharif.'

    In fact, in the Constitutional Revolution of 1905-1911, one of the complaints of the crowd was that the Qajar monarchy had had sayyids beaten. So if beating a scion of the House of the Prophet can help spark a revolution, what about shooting one? And, oppositional film maker Mohsen Makhmalbaf maintains that Mousavi was killed by a death squad that came for him in a van rather than just falling victim to random police fire.

    Killing a sayyid is a blot on any Iranian government. Doing so on Ashura, the day of morning for the martyred grandson of the Prophet, Imam Husayn, borders on insanity.

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    Sunday, December 27, 2009

    Rallies, Clashes Throughout Iran on Ashura;
    4 Demonstrators Killed, including Mousavi Nephew

    Opposition web sites are reporting that big protests broke out Sunday afternoon in several major cities in Iran. The rallies were confronted by police, basij paramilitary, and plains clothes security forces, first with tear gas and then with live ammunition. It is being alleged that at least 4 protesters have been shot dead, and that one is the nephew of opposition leader and former presidential candidate Mir Husain Mousavi.

    Sayyid Ali Husain Mousavi, 34, was said to have been taken to Ibn Sina Hospital after being shot in the heart during a demonstration in downtown Tehran.

    After initially denying that anyone had been killed, Iranian official media are now acknowledging several deaths, but declining to identify them as protestors shot by security men.

    After mourning sessions Sunday morning at spiritual centers called Husayniyehs or takyehs, crowds issued into alleys and streets, mixing religious slogans with pro-opposition ones. (They chanted, "O Husayn (grandson of the Prophet), Mir Husain (i.e. presidential contender Mir Husain Mousavi).")

    In Tehran, police used tear gas at Revolution Square and closed the Vali Asr intersection

    Reports came in of the capital's streets being full of smoke and fires. Reports of large numbers of arrrests are circulating.

    In Shiraz in the southwest, there was a policee crackdown on demonstrators and pro-regime elements are said to have surrounded the house of prominent cleric Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastghaib, a member of the Assembly of Experts who appears to be critical of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

    Authorities deployed pepper spray and tear gas against crowds in Isfahan, who continued to mourn the passing of regime critic Ayatollah Husain Ali Montazeri along with their Ashura mourning.

    Similar reports came in from Tabriz, Mashhad and other cities.

    AFP has a roundup.

    Some important points:

    For the regime to create a member of the Mousavi family as a martyr on Ashura was most unwise. Shiite Islam even more than traditional Catholicism thrives on the blood of martyrs.

    Junior or middle-ranking Ayatollahs favorable to the ideas of Montazeri show up in a number of these reports about protests in provincial cities, suggesting a generational split in the clerical corps and trouble for Khamenei ahead.

    Iran's political crisis is far from over, even though the opposition has little hope of coming to power as long as the security forces remain firmly behind Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.



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    Muharram Violence in Iraq, Iran, Pakistan

    The background for the big news in Iraq, Iran and Pakistan on Saturday and Sunday is the Shiite mourning season. Saturday was the 9th of the month of Muharram and Sunday is the 10th. These ritual dates in the Shiite calendar commemorate the surrounding and then killing of Husayn b. Ali, the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, at Karbala in Iraq in 680 by the armies of the Umayyad caliph Yazid. During Muharram Shiites tell the story of the passion of Imam Husayn, the martyr, which many feel is redemptive rather as Christians believe they are saved by the sacrifice made by Jesus.

    With the spread of Shiism in the past decades, Ashura is commemorated widely in the world. Abbas Djavadi remembers when these religious ceremonies, involving sermons, poetry, story-telling, public processions and in extreme cases bloody self-flagellation, were largely apolitical.

    But with the Islamic Revolution of 1979 in Iran and then decades later the rise of the Shiite crescent after the Bush administration overthrew secular Arab nationalism in Iraq and presided over the rise of fundamentalist Shiism, Ashura is highly politicized. It is politicized in two ways. It is a marker of Sunni-Shiite conflict, and it is an arena for contention over its meaning among competing factions of Shiites.

    In Iraq, hundreds of thousands of Shiite pilgrims walked to the holy city of Karbala under strict security. In recent years, Sunni Arab guerrillas have targeted Shiite processions with bombs. Even with good security and bomb-sniffing dogs this year, a few bombers targeted pilgrims in Baghdad on Saturday, killing a handful and wounding more. On Friday, pilgrims had been killed in East Baghdad and in Karbala. The guerrillas are targeting Shiite pilgrims to protest the Shiite take-over of Iraq under Washington's auspices.

    In the cities of Isfahan, Kermanshah and Shiraz in Iran, the political opposition used the 9th of Muharram processions to protest what they called the tyranny of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Some chanted against the very principle of clerical rule. They were cracked down on by police and paramilitary basij forces. pro-regime elements also interrupted the sermon of former president Mohammad Khatami. Sunday things are set for a clash between reformists and the regime.

    In Pakistan, the federal army was deployed throughout the country to protect Shiites on the 10th. The Pakistani Taliban against whom the current government is fighting are extremely anti-Shiite. A low-intensity bomb was set off at a Muharram procession in Karachi on Saturday, wounding 13 persons. Presumably the culprits were radical Sunni extremists.


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    Saturday, December 26, 2009

    Yemen, UAE links in Detroit Terrorism Attack

    Christian Purefoy is reporting on CNN that Abdul Mutallib ran into a radical Muslim network while studying in London. He was last registered in class at University College London in June 2008. This fall he had wanted to go study in Cairo, but his father was worried about his unsavory friends and afraid he would hook up with Egyptian radicals there. So the family sent him to study in Dubai instead. Sometime in late October he sent the family a text message that he was going off to Yemen and that the family would find it difficult to trace him because he was throwing away his phone's sim card. So it appears that he was recruited into a radical Salafi cell in the United Arab Emirates that sent him to Yemen.

    See Glenn Greenwald's interview with Gregory Johnsen, a Yemen expert at Salon this week.

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    Airline suspect is Nigeria banker's son

    Airline suspect is Nigeria banker's son | Reuters

    Western wire services are picking up reports from the Nigerian press that Umar Farouk Abdul Mutallib is the son of Umaru Mutallib, a prominent Nigerian banker and former cabinet official. The elder Mutallib was so disturbed by his son's radical religious views that he reported him to the US embassy in Abuja at one point.

    The New York Daily News says that Abdul Mutallib's fanaticism on religion goes back to his high school days in Lome, Togo, where other students nicknamed him Alfa or the local word for cleric.

    He was living in a $2 million condo in central London and had done an engineering course at Univeerrsity College London.

    He was tackled after lighting his incendiary device by passenger Jasper Schuringa, a Dutch film director, who burned his hands as a result of grabbing the device away and extinguishing it.

    The alleged Yemen and al-Qaeda links of Abdul Mutallib are still being looked into. He is said to have alleged that he derived his incediary device from Yemen. The Arab nationalist government in Yemen launched airstrikes on the al-Qaeda leadership there just this week, allegedly with US cooperation. http://thinkprogress.org/2009/12/26/obama-focus-yemen/"> Think Progress points out that the intensive US involvement with Yemeni government anti-al-Qaeda efforts gives the lie to Rep. Pete Hoekstra's attempt to politicize the Detroit airline attack as a sign of Obama's failure to connect the dots.




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    Heroic Passengers foil Hare-brained Terrorist attack Above Detroit

    The details of the attempted attack on the Amsterdam/ Detroit flight Friday are still murky and I don't trust the only official from whom we are hearing details, Rep. Peter King of New York. The LAT says Homeland Security is now downplaying the purported al-Qaeda or Yemen connection around which rumors swirled earlier Friday, saying that the al-Qaeda thing may have been "aspirational".

    Umar Farouk Abd al-Mutallib, 23, a Nigerian engineering student at the University College of London, took the flight from Lagos Nigeria to Amsterdam and thence to Detroit. Someone set him up with a leg pouch filled with an incendiary chemical that was supposed to set a big fire on board when he injected it with chemicals from a syringe. The problem with injecting a syringe into a pouch of chemicals nowadays is that the other passengers rather mind. So some tackled him and my guess is, stopped him from getting enough of the syringe discharged to set off a significant blaze. So he just set his leg on fire. It was a replay of the shoe bomber episode, in other words, and suspiciously enough occured on the anniversary of the Richard Reid attempt.

    Abd al-Mutallib is said not to have been on a US passenger watch list, but to have been on watch lists of other countries. Or to have been flagged somehow in US records. Larisa Alexandrovna makes the excellent point that the no-fly list in the US is nearly a million strong and many names are there because of pure politics (attended a peace rally), and that if Homeland Security wanted to be efficient they'd pare it down to people like Abd al-Mutallib, for whom they would then have room.

    The precise context of such individuals is always difficult to pin down. They fall silent or they exaggerate and lie. I wonder if he has a primarily Nigerian context or a London one. What precise causes animated his hatred? Was he part of an organization or just a small one-off cell?

    The incident points to lax security at airports like Abuja and Lagos as a problem for the international system. But it also underlines how difficult it has become for terrorists successfully to attack passenger airliners. Despite King's characterization of Abd al-Mutallib's kit as 'sophisticated,' in fact the scheme strikes me as hare-brained and likely doomed from the beginning. No cause for complaisance here, but contrary to what rightwing politicians are saying, no cause for panic, either.


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    Friday, December 25, 2009

    Bethlehem Under Occupation; In the absence of all hope, we cry out our cry of hope

    Aljazeera English reports on the economic difficulties facing the Palestinian Christians of Bethlehem:



    Palestinian Christians are calling on the world community to end their occupation, saying, "In the absence of all hope, we cry out our cry of hope."

    For more on Palestinian Christians see Timothy Seidel.

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    Attacks on Christians, Shiites in Iraq; Bombings kill 27

    Religious passions, guerrilla attacks, and politics marred Christmas Eve in Iraq, as the Shiite holy day of Ashura also approaches on Sunday. A wave of bombings targeting churches or Shiite mourning sessions struck throughout the country Thursday and Friday, killing 27 and wounding over 100.

    The biggest attack, in the Shiite city of Hilla, killed a member of the provincial council allied politically with Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, along with 14 others.

    In East Baghdad, a bombing targeted a mourning session of Shiite Muslims, killing 5. There was also an inflammatory bombing in the holy city of Karbala, site of Husayn's martyrdom, which killed 1 and wounded 12.

    In Mosul, 5 churches have been bombed, and a Christian youth was shot down Thursday morning

    Many Christian churches have canceled Chrismas mass because of security concerns, including the Chaldean archdiocese of Kirkuk.

    Some Christians fear that religious passions are high among Shiite Muslims at this time, because the latter mourn the killing of their beloved Imam Husayn, the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, in the month of Muharram, which recently began. Dec. 27 is Ashura, the primary mourning date.

    But the attacks on Christians and Shiites are both likely emanating from Salafi Sunni extremists, who are fighting a rearguard battle against the Sunni Arab loss of power in Iraq at the hands of Christians and Shiites. (It is unfair to associate Iraqi Christians with the Americans, since theirs is among the older Christian churches in the Middle East and predates Islam in Iraq, but the Salafis are still playing symbolic politics by equating Christianity with the imperialist West. As a result, Iraq's Christian population has fallen from 800,000 to 400,000 and is in danger of disappearing altogether, as Iraqi Christians flee to Syria).

    Some Iraqi newspapers blamed the government for being unable to stop the attacks, though in fact security is pretty tight in Iraq at the moment. In past Muharrams, massive bombings have been carried out.

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    Thursday, December 24, 2009

    Iran protests spread in heartland;
    State of Emergency in Isfahan;
    Regime Threatens Harsh Crackdown

    Iran protests spread in heartland -- latimes.com

    The LAT reports further on Wednesday's demonstrations in Isfahan and Najafabad, pointing out that these central regions are strongholds for the regime in general, making the challenge mounted there seem especially threatening. There were also further demonstrations at Tehran University and the eastern city of Mashad. There was also a local protest against an execution in the southern city of Sirjan.

    The Iranian authorities are threatening an even more Draconian response if the protests continue, according to WaPo. The problem for the regime is that it not only has to repress dissidents but win the hearts and minds of the public, and increased brutality against dissidents, who are after all themselves ordinary Iranians, could backfire.

    Provincial governors were forbidden to issue any further permits for memorial meetings on the death of dissident cleric Grand Ayatollah Hosain Ali Montazeri. Dissidents opposed to the current regime have used his death as an occasion for protest, especially in the holy city of Qom on Monday.

    In Isfahan, the government declared a state of emergency on late Wednesday, according to CSM, and was calling on the federal military for help.

    Here is unauthenticated video of basij paramilitary breaking up mourning for Montazeri in Isfahan:



    The USG Open Source Center translated remarks of the representative in the Revolutionary Guards of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, made Dec. 17 and republished in the hard line Resalalat Online for Dec. 23,2009. Mojtaba Zo'l-Nur is alleged to have said,

    "Authorities should introduce traitors to the people as soon as possible." He pointed to the supreme leader's description of the recent sedition as 'a deep sedition . . . ' 'Hojat ol-eslam Mojtaba Zolnur said: One of the reasons for such a description is the scale of that sedition. He added: There were many seditions after the Islamic revolution, such as that of anti-revolutionary groups, Banisadr's, Montazeri's, imposed war, etc., but none of them spread the seeds of doubt and hesitation among various social layers as much as the recent one." . . . The supreme leader's representative in IRGC also maintained that it is difficult to discern right from wrong during a sedition because under such conditions they get mixed and one needs insight to distinguish them. Zolnur then continued: In addition to insight, it is important to remain on the stage and added: With the presence of revolutionary forces on the stage, followers of the wrong will prefer to escape than to remain in sight.'


    (Description of Source: Tehran Resalat Online in Persian -- conservative Tehran daily, owned by the Resalat Foundation; associated with traditional merchants and conservative clerics; URL: http://www.resalat-news.com)

    I think by 'remaining on stage' he means 'beating people over the head.' And that it is 'difficult to discern right and wrong during a sedition' signals how bewildered the old guard is by the breakdown of consensus over the regime even within the ranks of its foremost proponents.

    Mehr News Agency on Dec. 23 quoted former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani as saying that 'a majority' on college campuses had joined the opposition. He reiterated his opposition to hard line crack downs on dissidents, saying all legal speech should be allowed. He called for jailed protesters to be released. But he also expressed discomfort at the spiral of protest and repression in which the country is caught up.



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    Wednesday, December 23, 2009

    Montazeri and Iranian Democracy


    The Real News Network on Grand Ayatollsh Montazeri snd Iranian democracy. Dr. Nader Hashemi is interviewed.




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    Iran Unrest Continues; Reformist Clerics Attacked

    Unrest continued in Iran on Tuesday and Wednesday as dissidents combined mourning ceremonies for Grand Ayatollah Hosain Ali Montazeri with anti-regime demonstrations. In the important city of Isfahan, security forces attacked a throng of mourners and fifty were arrested. The ceremony was held at Sayyid Mosque, with reformist cleric Jalal al-Din Taheri presiding.

    The regime is clearly especially worried about liberalizing clergymen who might assume the mantle of Montazeri, a regime critic with impressive scholarly credentials.

    This concern is illustrated by the home invasion in the holy city of Qom mounted by hard line militiamen against reformist cleric Ayatollah Yusuf Sanei, in the course of which some of his aides were beaten. The hard liners want to expel Sanei and other reformers from Qom, branding them 'hypocrites'.

    There were also clashes between mourners and authorities Tuesday eveningin Najafabad

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    Tuesday, December 22, 2009

    Top Ten Worst Things about the Bush Decade;
    Or, the Rise of the New Oligarchs

    By spring of 2000, Texas governor George W. Bush was wrapping up the Republican nomination for president, and he went on to dominate the rest of the decade. If Dickens proclaimed of the 1790s revolutionary era in France that it was the best of times and the worst of times, the reactionary Bush era was just the worst of times. I declare it the decade of the American oligarchs. Just as the end of the Cold War and the fall of the Soviet Union allowed the emergence of a class of lawless 'Oligarchs' in Russia, so Neoliberal tax policies and deregulation produced American equivalents. (For more on the analogy, see Michael Hudson.) We have always had robber barons in American politics, but the Neoliberal moment created a new social class. At about 1.3 million adults, it is not too large to have some cohesive interests, and its corporations, lobbyists, and other institutions allow it to intervene systematically in politics. It owns 45 percent of the privately held wealth and is heading toward 50, i.e. toward a Banana Republic. Thus, we have a gutted fairness doctrine and the end of anti-trust concerns in ownership of mass media, allowing a multi-billionaire like Rupert Murdoch to buy up major media properties and to establish a cable television channel which is nothing but oligarch propaganda. They established 'think tanks' like the American Enterprise Institute, which hires only staff that are useful agents of the interests of the very wealthy, and which produce studies denying global climate change or lying about the situation in Iraq. Bush-Cheney were not simply purveyors of wrong-headed ideas. They were the agents of the one percent, and their policies make perfect sense if seen as attempts to advance the interests of this narrow class of persons. It is the class that owns our mass media, that pays for the political campaigns of 'our' (their) representatives, that gives us the Bushes and Cheneys and Palins because they are useful to them, and that blocks progressive reform and legislation with the vast war chest funneled to them by deep tax cuts that allow them to use essential public resources, infrastructure and facilities gratis while making the middle class pay for them.

    Here are my picks for the top ten worst things about the wretched period, which, however, will continue to follow us until the economy is re-regulated, anti-trust concerns again pursued, a new, tweaked fairness doctrine is implemented, and we return to a more normal distribution of wealth (surely a quarter of the privately held wealth is enough for the one percent?) It isn't about which party is in power; parties can always be bought. It is about how broadly shared resources are in a society. Egalitarianism is unworkable, but over-concentration of wealth is also impractical. The latter produced a lot of our problems in the past decade, and as long as such massive inequality persists, our politics will be lopsided.


    10. Stagnating worker wages and the emergence of a new monied aristocracy. Of all the income growth of the entire country of the United States in the Bush years, the richest 1 percent of the working population, about 1.3 million persons, grabbed up over two-thirds of it. The Reagan and Bush cuts in tax rates on the wealthy have created a dangerous little alien inside our supposedly democratic society, of the super-rich, with their legions of camp followers (sometimes referred to as 'analysts' or 'economists' or 'journalists'). The new lords and ladies are the Dick and Liz Cheneys and the people for whom they shill. They are the Rupert Murdochs and the Richard Mellon Scaifes, and they are guaranteed to own more and more of the country as long as more progressive taxation (i.e. pre-Reagan, not pre-Bush) is not restored. They are the ones who didn't want a public universal health option, did not want the wars abroad to end abruptly, did not want the Copenhagen Climate convention to succeed. They are driven by pure greed and narrow profit-seeking for themselves. They always get their way, and they always will as long as you poor stupid bastards buy the line that when the government raises their taxes, it is taking something away from you. It is the alliance of the Neoliberal super-rich with the new lower middle class populists led by W. and now by Sarah Palin that produces clown politics in the US unmatched in most advanced industrial countries with the possible exception of Italy.

    9. Health and food insecurity increased for ordinary Americans. Health care costs skyrocketed. Most Americans in the work force who have health care are covered via their employers. 'From 1999 to 2009 health insurance premiums increased 132%" for the companies paying most of the costs of coverage to their employees. Euromonitor adds, "Average private health insurance premiums for a family of four in 1999 were US$5,485 per annum or 7.2% of household disposable income. 2008 premiums were estimated at US$12,973 per annum or 14.8% of average household disposable income." By Bush's last year in office, food insecurity among American families was at a 14-year high. About 49 million Americans, one in six of us, worried about having enough food to eat at some points in that year, and resorted to soup lines, food stamps, or dietary shortcuts. Some 16 million, according to the NYT, suffered from '“very low food security,” meaning lack of money forced members to skip meals, cut portions or otherwise forgo food at some point in the year.' Hundreds of thousands of children are going hungry in the richest country in the world. From being a proud, wealthy people, our social superiors reduced us to the estate of third-world peasants, so as to make sure their bonuses were bigger.

    8. The environment became more polluted. The Bush administration was the worst on record on environmental issues. Carbon emissions grew unchecked, and the threat of climate change accelerated. In fact, Bush muzzled government climate scientists and had their reports rewritten by lawyers from Big Oil.

    7. The imperial presidency was ensconced in ways it will be difficult to pare back. But note that its powers were never used against the oligarchs (unlike the case in Putin's Russia), but rather deployed to ensure the continued destruction of the labor movement and the political bargaining power of workers and the middle class, and to harass and disrupt peace, rights and environmental movements. A part of this process was the abrogation of fourth amendment protections against arbitrary search, seizure and snooping into people's mail and effects, and of other key constitutional rights under vague and unconstitutional rubrics such as 'providing material aid to terrorists,'(rights which seem unlikely ever to be restored).

    6. The Katrina flood and the destruction of much of historic African-American New Orleans, and the massive failure of the Bush administration to come to the aid of one of America's great cities. The administration's unconcern about the unsound dam infrastructure, about climate change, and about the fate of the victims are all a wake-up call for what all of us have in store from the small social class that Bush served.

    5. The Bush administration's post-2002 mishandling of Afghanistan, where the Taliban had been overthrown successfully in 2001 and were universally despised. The Bush administration's attempt to assert itself with a big troop presence in the Pashtun provinces, its use of search and destroy tactics and missile strikes, its neglect of civilian reconstruction, and its failure to finish off al-Qaeda, allowed an insurgency gradually to grow. It should have been nipped in the bud, but was not. Once an insurgency becomes well established, it is defeated militarily only about 20 percent of the time. Eight years later, the Neoconservative thrust into Central Asia (in search of hydrocarbon leverage, or in a geopolitical pissing match with Russia and China?) of the early years of this decade has bequeathed us yet another war, this time one that could destabilize neighboring Pakistan-- the world's sole Muslim nuclear power.

    4. The Iraq War, in which the US illegally launched a war of aggression that killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, displaced 4 million (over a million abroad), destroyed entire cities such as Fallujah, set off a Sunni-Shiite civil war, allowed Baghdad to be ethnically cleansed of its Sunnis, practiced systematic and widespread torture before the eyes of the Muslim Middle East and the world, and immeasurably strengthened Iran's hand in the Middle East. All this on false pretexts such as 'weapons of mass destruction' or 'democratization,' for the sake of opening the Iraqi oil markets to US hydrocarbon firms-- a significant faction of the oligarchic class. Cost to the US in American military life: 4,373 dead as of Dec 15 and 31,603 wounded in combat. The true totals of war-related dead and injured are higher, since 30,000 troops who were only diagnosed with brain injuries on their return to the US are not counted in the statistics, according to Michael Munk. The cost of the Iraq War when everything is taken into account will likely be $3 trillion.

    3. The great $12 trillion Bank Robberry, in which unscrupulous bankers and financiers were deregulated and given free rein to create worthless derivatives, sell impossible mortgages to uninformed marks who could not understand their complicated terms, and then to roll this garbage up into securities re-sold like the
    Cheshire cat, with a big visible smile of asserted value hanging in the air even as their actual worth disappeared into thin air. Having allowed the one-percent oligarchs to capture most of the increase of the country's wealth in recent decades, Bush and Paulsen now initiated the surrender to them of nearly a further entire year's gross domestic product of the US, stealing it from the rest of us by deficit budget financing that will have the effect of deflating our savings and property values and relative value of our currency against other world currencies. That is, we are to be further beggared for sake of the super-rich. And while the banks and bankers are held harmless, the hardworking Americans who have lost and will lose their homes are extended virtually no help. While 500,000 American children will go hungry at least some of the time this year, the Oligarchs at Goldman, Sachs, will get millions in bonuses, on the backs of the ordinary taxpayers. It seems likely to me that the creation of a pool of vast excess liquidity for the super-rich by the Reagan-Cheney tax cuts was what impelled them to develop the derivatives, since they had too much capital for ordinary investment purposes and were restlessly seeking new gaming tables. The conclusion is that until we get our gini coefficient back into some sort of synch, we are likely at risk for further such meltdowns.

    2. The September 11 attacks on New York and Washington by al-Qaeda, an organization that stemmed from the Reagan administration's anti-Soviet jihad in the 1980s and which decided that, having defeated one superpower, it could take down the other. Al-Qaeda's largely Arab volunteer fighters had confronted the Soviets over their occupation of a major Muslim country, Afghanistan. Bin Laden was himself a Neoliberal Oligarch, but he broke with the Gulf consensus of seeking a US security umbrella, thus creating a fissure within his powerful social class. Al-Qaeda viewed the US as only a slightly less objectionable occupier, though they were willing to make an atliance of convenience in the 1980s. But they were increasingly enraged and galvanized to strike, they said, by the post-Gulf-War sanctions on Iraq that killed 500,000 children, the debilitating Israeli occupation of the Palestinians, and the establishment of US bases in the holy Arabian Peninsula (with its oil riches that Bin Laden believed were being looted for pennies by the West, aided by a supine and corrupt Saudi dynasty). Al-Qaeda was a small fringe crackpot group of murderous conspiracy theorists, since most of what they considered an American 'occupation' of Muslims was no such thing. The leasing of Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia was comparable to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan? They intended to make themselves look like a world-historical force, and the US new Oligarchs, who no longer had the international Communist conspiracy with which to scare the American public into letting them have their way, were happy to buy in to the hyping of al-Qaeda, as well. But the catastrophe was not only the attacks, deadly and horrific though they were, but the alacrity with which Americans surrendered their birthright of yeoman liberties to a Bonapartist regime that ran roughshod over law, the constitution, the Congress, and anyone, such as Ambassador Joe Wilson, who dared oppose it.

    1. The constitutional coup of 2000, in which Bush was declared the winner of an election he had lost, with the deployment of the most ugly racial and other low tricks in the ballot counting and the intervention of a partisan and far right-wing Supreme Court (itself drawn from or serving the oligarchs), and which gave us the worst president in the history of the union, who proceeded to drive the country off a cliff for the succeeding 8 years. And that is because he was not our president, but theirs.


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    Monday, December 21, 2009

    Funeral of Iranian cleric Montazeri turns into political protest |

    Funeral of Iranian cleric Montazeri turns into political protest | World news | The Guardian

    The mourning procession for Grand Ayatollah Hosain Ali Montazeri in the holy city of Qom south of Tehran turned into a huge Opposition rally, according to the Guardian, with protesters wearing green and chanting against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with some calling him 'murderer,' going beyond the charge of 'dictator' that has become common. These were the largest demonstrations ever seen in the holy city. Qom is the home of influential grand ayatollahs and some 50,000 seminary students.

    Here is a youtube video of the protests to give the flavor:



    Plainsclothesmen on motorcycles are alleged to have attacked the automobile of opposition leader Mir Husain Mousavi as it was returning from the funeral. One of the persons in his entourage was lightly injured.

    Among the things enraging the demonstrators was the following statement by Leader Khamenei on Montazeri's death, in which he accused the grand ayatollah of having been tested by God and of failing the test, but in which Khamenei went on to pray for divine forgiveness for his departed foe. The language of failing the test refers in fundamentalist religion to the assertion of individual ego and refusal to fall quiet when one does not get one's way. Khamenei is saying that Montazeri should have remained quiet about the 1988 massacres of dissidents, and that his standing up for human rights was a sign of human frailty and overpowering ego, which had the potential to undermine the Islamic Republic. Cult-like ideologies always attempt to silence dissidents and to paint dissidence as pure individual selfishness that leads to public turmoil.

    The USG Open Source Center translated Khamenei's statement:

    ' In the name of [G]od who is wise and merciful.

    We are informed that the illustrious scholar Mr Hajj Sheykh Hoseyn-Ali Montazeri has bid Farewell to this mortal coil and has hastened to the afterlife. He was an eminent scholar and an illustrious thinker and many students benefited from him. Much of his life was spent in the service of Late Imam (Khomeyni); he engaged in many jihads and endured much scorn in these endeavors. Towards the end of the Imam's life, (he failed) a difficult and momentous test. I beg almighty god envelope him his mercy and love and to absolve him by accepting the hardships (he) endured in this world as his penance. I his send condolences to his honorable wife and children and I pray for divine mercy and absolution for him.

    Seyyed Ali Khamene'i

    (Description of Source: Tehran Fars News Agency in Persian -- Privately owned online news agency which began operating in mid-November 2002. In December 2007, Hamid Reza Moqaddamfar replaced Mehdi Faza'eli as managing director and told Fars managers that the agency follows "Principle-ists" policies and its activities are in line with the Islamic Republic and the Vali-ye-Faqih; URL: http://www.farsnews.com/) '


    Political analyst Hossein Bastani told the Guardian, "Khamenei's comments about Montazeri met with a very negative reflection in Iranian opposition websites and media."


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    Thousands mass for Montazeri's Funeral in Iran

    Enduring America reports that the funeral procession for Grand Ayatollah Husain Ali Montazeri began at 9:30 am in Iran. The initial regime announcement of the senior cleric's death omitted his titles. Once in line to succeed Imam Ruhollah Khomeini as Iran's supreme leader, he broke with the regime in 1988 over massacres of dissidents, and was thereafter marginalized by the Tehran elite.

    Al-Hayat transmits from a Persian site a report that senior pro-reform clergymen met in Montazeri's home before the funeral procession. It adds that foreign journalists are not being allowed to cover the events.

    Ayandeh, an opposition site connected to Mohsen Rezai (a failed presidential candidate in the recent election and former head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps) says that despite reported regime determination to prevent the procession from turning into an anti-regime demonstration,tens of thousands of mourners lined the streets and gathered at a holy shrine in Qom.

    Opposition leaders Mir Hosain Mousavi and Ali Karroubi called for Monday to be a national day of mourning according to the opposition web site Rah-e Sabz, and said that they would be at the funeral. Montazeri was an outspoken critic of the flawed presidential elections held in June and of incumbent president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He dismissed the regime in its current form as mere dictators.

    Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Abadi issued a statement praising Montazeri as "the father of human rights" in Iran. She said he was like a father to her in demonstrating how it was possible to stand up for political prisoners and dissidents.

    Al-Hayat says that crowds of mourners at a mosque in Najafabad chanted in the name of liberty and pledged to follow Montazeri's path.

    The mourning period for Montazeri comes at a particularly difficult time for the regime. The month of Muharram is marked by public mourning ceremonies for the martyrdom of the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, Imam Husayn b. Ali. The regime cannot therefore just clear the streets, and cannot prevent the religious mourning from being mixed in with politics.

    Montazeri is more important as a symbol than a leader, and he may remain so in death. I've seen analysts suggesting that his passing is a blow to the reform movement, but that view seems to me unfounded. Even Mousavi and Karroubi do not seem much in control of the movement, which is a wide set of urban networks that more resembles a 'flash mob' than a disciplined party.

    In any case, commemorating a martyr, which is how his supporters see Montazeri, is a far more important political repertoire in Iran than taking inspiration from a living elder statesman. For Montazeri to die on the threshold of the Ashura mourning processions is a real problem for the authorities.

    Just as American rule in Iraq always became shakier in the Shiite south when people were stirred by the passion of Husayn during Muharram, so the theocratic regime in Tehran faces special difficulties in the face of massive, emotional crowds.

    The regime will breathe a sigh of relief, since Montazeri helped craft the docrrine of the guardianship of the Jurisprudent, which the current government interprets as clerical dictatorship. But Montazeri maintains that that outcome was never Khomeini's intent. It is sort of as though there was a living disciple of Jesus around who insisted that he never intended the pope to be infallible. Montazeri was a powerful living witness to an alternative form of Shiite government, one with a human face. The hardliners such as Khamenei and Ahmadinejad will be delighted to have that voice silenced.

    Aljazeera English has video on Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's legacy and death:



    A Journeyman pictures documentary on Grand Ayatollah Montazeri from 2006

    Grand Ayaotollah Montazeri being interviewed in English:



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    Shafir: The End of US Relevance

    Gershon Shafir writes in a guest column for Informed Comment:

    The Obama Administration, like every other American administration, has failed to convince Israel to freeze the expansion of its settlements on the occupied West Bank. It has belatedly extracted a 10-month long moratorium, but only after Netanyahu has excluded Jewish neighborhoods in east Jerusalem and allowed 3,000 homes already under construction to be completed. Not a week seems to pass without another slap to the freeze. On Sunday, it included increased funding for yet more settlements in Israel’s map of national priority zones.

    A very-likely embarrassed Hilary Clinton “welcomed” the Israeli announcement--but no one was fooled. The expansion of Israeli settlements eats away at the land and resources Palestinians claim for their state, and demonstrates lack of Israeli commitment to the formation of two viable states through territorial partition

    Netanyahu offers several reasons to justify his intransigence. The first is that his government will fall and the second, that a policy of freeze leads to clashes with settlers. Netanyahu’s government, however, has not fallen--and if it did he could bring in left-of-center parties that are actually committed to a two-state solution.

    The clashes between the settlers and the Israeli military are just as misconstrued. The fact is that Israeli settlements remain in the West Bank only by virtue of the protection provided by the very military that is threatened by the settler “hilltop youth.” No soldiers, no settlements. Truth to be told, any serious injuries or loss of life sustained by Israeli soldiers at the hand of setters would irrevocably isolate the latter and reduce their political umbrella. Clashes with settlers will be required to implement any peace deal based on a two-state solution and they are to be recognized as an essential tool of peacemaking directed against extremists who wish to quash peaceful compromises.

    The Obama Administration’s attempt to freeze settlements has not only been too tame but also misguided. Past experience shows that Israeli settlements can either be expanded or shrunk, but they cannot be frozen. After the Oslo agreement of 1993, Israeli governments declared their intention of establishing no new settlements. Even so, since then the population of the existing settlement not only more than doubled, but according to the government’s own 2004 Sasson Report 105 “illegal settlements” were built. Their number now is up to about 130. It is conceivable that a handful of new settlements could have been built illegally, but the existence of dozens lays bare an unofficial governmental policy. Settlement leaders proudly own up to the fact they received help in building and maintaining their illegal outposts. Obama’s people should have demanded the removal of these settlements. After all, they are illegal even by Israeli standards, many are very small, Israeli governments repeatedly promised to do so, and their removal would show real commitment to a peace process and not just to peace negotiations.

    Netanyahu also tried to divert attention from peacemaking with Abbas by demanding that the US concentrate on lining up its allies against Iran’s growing nuclear threat. But who are Israel’s best potential allies against Iranian nuclear weapons? The Palestinians. Their losses in lives from an Iranian nuclear attack would be only marginally smaller than Israel’s. As long as their national ambitions are thwarted, Palestinians cannot form a united front with Israel against radical Iranian ambitions. Right now Abbas refuses to run in the next presidential elections, and in his absence the Palestinian Authority, and the Fatah movement on which it is based, are likely to disintegrate.

    The Obama Administration’s half-hearted and weak-kneed negotiations over the “freeze” with Netanyahu have led nowhere. In fact, the US now finds itself irrelevant in the face of the Israeli-Palestinian impasse. . In fact, the US is losing its relevance and the center of gravity has already moved elsewhere, towards those who are willing to contemplate unilateral solutions. The EU, which debated a Swedish proposal to declare Jerusalem the capital of both Israel and a future Palestinian state, has adopted a more modest resolution in support of a negotiated solution to Jerusalem’s status. But the EU is not likely to continue refraining from a larger role in the absence of American sponsored negotiations. Salaam Fayad, the Palestinian Prime Minister, in absence of a real freeze and corresponding negotiations, plans to declare a Palestinian state in the 1967 boundaries and ask the UN to recognize it. Would the Obama Administration vote against the establishment of a Palestinian state whose creation has already been supported by President G.W. Bush? Permanent and unconditional backing to any Israeli folly or overreaching destroys Israel’s incentive to make peace. For the US to step back into effective engagement it might need to back the EU or the Fayad/UN plans.

    Israeli leaders used to joke that a Palestinian supported motion to declare the earth flat would immediately garner 50 votes in the UN General Council; it still seems that no matter how Israel overreached it would automatically get one vote--the U.S. That should no longer be possible. If Obama wishes the US to become relevant again in Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy, his best course is to demand the removal of the semi-official illegal settlements and lift its knee-jerk support for Israel in the UN.

    --

    Gershon Shafir is Professor of Sociology at the University of California San Diego.

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    Sunday, December 20, 2009

    PPP to fight ‘plots’ against mandate;
    Make or Break Point for Rule of Law

    DAWN.COM | Pakistan | PPP to fight ‘plots’ against mandate

    Dawn reports that a meeting of high officials of the Pakistan People's Party produced a resolution to remain in power, retain existing cabinet members, and simply fight each corruption case brought against PPP officials on a case-by-case basis. On the advice of the reformist wing of the party, headed by Aitzaz Ahsan, the party decided not to attempt to directly confront or tamper with the judiciary.

    From a PPP point of view, the decision this week of the Supreme Court to set aside the amnesty proclaimed in late 2007 by then president Pervez Musharraf for politicians against whom there were outstanding corruption cases was part of a conspiracy of the Punjabi elite of the country to deny the party the fruits of its resounding electoral victory in February, 2008. The PPP is a nationwide party with constituents throughout the country, but its base is in Sindh, a poor province, the inhabitants of which often feel discriminated against by the majority Punjabis and by the Urdu-speaking Muhajirs or immigrants who came from India in 1947 and who were more urban, literate and better at capturing lucrative government jobs in Sindh itself than were the largely rural, illiterate Sindhis.

    But Party leaders wisely decided not to play the card of wounded Sindhi subnationalism.

    The virtue of the stand-fast approach the party is taking is that it asserts a claim to legitimacy on the basis of popular sovereignty. In the US, as well, voters often return corrupt politicians to power at the ballot box.

    The disadvantage is that so many PPP officials have cases outstanding against them that the party could suffer a death of a thousand cuts as the cases wend their way through the courts and generate negative headlines for a while-- even if most cases are ultimately dropped or result in a hung jury.

    The party has decided to stand behind even two of the cabinet ministers against whom extensive charges have been laid, Defense Minister Ahmed Mukhtar and Interior Minister Rehman Malik. The lower level Interior ministry officials who stopped Mukhtar from proceeding to China were dismissed.

    If the crisis goes forward on this basis, with the majority party ruling as long as it can avoid a vote of no confidence, and with individual corruption cases fought on a case-by-case basis, then the entire exercise could be healthy. Some individual cabinet and other officials may have to step down, but so what?

    There will be new elections at some point, and even if the government can survive until 2013 when they are scheduled, the public will have the opportunity to decide whether the court cases were brought maliciously and were largely without merit, or whether more probity in office is desirable. I'm watching GEO satellite in Urdu now, and commenters are pointing out that the newly assertive judiciary will be unlikely to want to pursue cases that seem to derive from partisan spite or are flimsy.

    The USG Open Source Center translated an approving editorial from Jang (which is pro-Muslim League) that praised the Supreme Court for revoking Musharraf's blanket amnesty:

    ' Jang Editorial Calls For Removing Cancer of Corruption From Society: Seeing an opportunity in the Supreme Court verdict to stamp out corruption from the society, the editorial says: "By passing an unprecedented judgment against the NRO, the Supreme Court has provided a rare opportunity to the country and nation to remove the cancer of corruption from the country's political system. If the prime minister, being the administrative head, succeeds in this test and takes concrete measures for implementation of the Supreme Court's verdict in letter and spirit, it will be a great honor for him."


    But another Jang editorial made an important point-- the PPP government will have to be willing to prosecute legitimate cases in good faith:
    Jang Article by Irfan Siddiqui Claims Tough Task Assigned to Government: Discussing the problems of the government for taking action against its own people, the article says: "The greatest challenge for the government, which is at the helm of affairs, is to take action against its own components. Will the government discharge this noble task? Will the syed of Multan (Prime Minister Gilani) be able to bear this burden?"


    As power is gradually being returned to the prime minister, Yusuf Raza Gilani, the proper head of state, from the artificially inflated presidency created by past generals, he has a special burden to function as the leader of the country and not just of his party.

    The assertion of power by the judiciary during the past three years seems to me one of the more pivotal developments in Pakistani history, which had alternated between highly partisan civilian party rule and periods of military dictatorship. The judiciary has emerged as a force in its own right. Of course, there are dangers in an overly active, unelected judiciary interfering too heavily in a government with a popular mandate. The USG Open Source Center translated an editorial to that effect from 'Nowadays' (AAj Kal):
    Aaj Kal Editorial Warns Against Unrestricted Judicial Activism: Emphasizing that caution is required for the courts while exercising their newly won freedom, the editorial says: "In the backdrop of the increased respect and growing confidence reposed in the courts after the restoration of judiciary on 16 March, special care is required so that the scope of judicial review doesn't cross the limits and the respect and dignity of courts is kept intact."


    Despite the resentments within the PPP over the way the court decision revoking amnesty seems unfairly to have set the clock back to the late 1990s, when the Muslim League and then the military had launched the corruption cases as a way of marginalizing the dismissed-from-power PPP, there is indisputably a lot of corruption in Pakistani politics. In fact, there is not much point in President Obama giving the country $7.5 bn. in aid if it is just going to be siphoned off to Switzerland.

    This is a moment in which the Pakistani political elite can finally begin to grow up and stop acting like feudal lords and carpetbaggers. Or it can devolve into partisan and ethnic bitterness that would be far more dangerous to the country than the revolt of a few rural tribes, styled by Washington 'Taliban,' in the rugged Northwest of the country.

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    Montazeri Dead

    The Associated Press: ML APNewsAlert AP is reporting that Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri of Iran is dead, according to his grandson.

    Montazeri, 87, had been a close associate of Imam Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979. He then became Khomeini's hand-picked successor, but broke with him in 1988 over the massacres of political dissidents then being carried out by the regime. He immediately became a non-person, and was put under house arrest for a while but ultimately was released. He went on to construct the most extensive theological and juridical challenge to the revolutionary doctrine of Khomeinism, which turned the leading Shiite cleric into a sort of dictator or 'Guardian.' Montazeri became an Islamist democrat, putting more emphasis on popular sovereignty, without denying a role for learned clerics in guiding society.

    Although Montazeri has often been lionized by critics of the regime abroad, he had little influence inside Iran. He did lend his voice in support of the Green Movement for greater democracy that began in June.

    His attempt to reform the regime and its ideology so as to be more humane faltered in the face of the creeping coup conducted since the early zeroes by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and its former officers who gained high political positions. Deeply committed to clerical dictatorship as the underpinning of their own control of a third of Iran's economy, the IRGC elite relentlessly marginalized, exiled or murdered those with democratic tendencies in the system. Montazeri aspired to be the Gorbachev of the Khomeinist regime, but although he died in his own bed, he was more analogous to its Trotsky, a road not taken.

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    iPhone App for Informed Comment

    Just to let all the Informed Comment readers who use iPhones know that there is now a dedicated app for it. Search 'Juan Cole's blog' in iPhone apps and it comes right up. It lets you favorite posts and share them on Twitter and facebook.

    It was generated by Motherapp.com, to whom many thanks.


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    Saturday, December 19, 2009

    Comedian Nazareth on Finding a Wife in Gaza

    In honor of the approaching season, some evangelical Christian Arab comedy from the Gaza Strip-- just as a reminder that not everyone being half-starved by the Israeli blockade there is Hamas.




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    Realnews: without US Commitment, Copenhagen Breaks Down

    From the Realnews network, an intelligent discussion of how lack of US leadership contributed to the failure of the Copenhagen climate conference. Features Adele Morris of Brookings and Kurt Davies of Greenpeace.




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