200 Killed in One Week in Iraq
As the dramatic events in Iran have taken the world focus off Iraq, the news that some 200 people, mostly civilians, were killed in bombings and other political violence during the past week has been overlooked by many in the West.
On Friday, a bus station in Baghdad was bombed, killing 7 persons and wounding 31.
Still, Big Oil is nevertheless getting back into Iraq -- my guess is that they are positioning themselves for the filigire even though the terms and the security now are bad. In future they will have built a good working relationship this way.
A lot of Iraqis vaguely wish the reformers well in Iran, but mostly they want the Tehran regime to stay out of their hair.
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posted by Juan Cole @ 6/27/2009 12:50:00 AM
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Still, Big Oil is nevertheless getting back into Iraq -- my guess is that
what ?!??!? your guess is what ?!?!?
Good Thing That The usa Invasion and Occupation of Iraq Was NOT About The OIL No Sir Dick's Your Uncle
Re the Sunni-AQI-terror trend:
Part of the deal between Anbaris and the US occupation force was to lethally suppress AQI, in return for freedoms in Anbar, and support for Sunni self defense in Baghdad and the belt. Dialing back AQI had the effect of getting the US engaged in security for Sunni's, and keeping high force levels in Iraq thru the 2007-9 'surge' period.
If the AQI violence and Shiite death squad activity remains low, there's less reason for muscular US occupation forces, which desparately want to halve our unsustainable force levels. We're facing a ballooning crunch, to keep up with Iraq Withdrawal/SOFA schedules, along with pressure to produce brigades for the Af-Pak war.
If some Sunni's want continued US presence, to guarantee their security against the Shiite gov't, the motivation to suppress and turn in AQI operatives is today partly inverted from what it was in late 2006-08. LIkewise, this months withdrawal from Baghdad / belt forward patrolling draws Sunni militia attention to their Shiite antagonists, not the takfiri terror-bombers operating outside Sunni enclaves. Preventing next years civil war is not as high a priority as defending against arrests this year by Interior commandos.
At the same time, the Arab-Wahabi supported Pashtun-Deobandi insurgency on the Af-Pak border benefits from the Iraq civil war heating up and keeping the US military pinned in Iraq at the 15 brigade/150,000+contractors level. So anti-US arab wahabi money and volunteers would see value in re-opening the international pipeline of jihadis that operate somewhat independantly of tribal peace-makers.
The warrior-mullahs of Saudi of security might well fund young jihadis to kill US and Shiites, reducing pressure in the kingdom and simultaneously keeping the US army pinned in place as a buffer against Iran. The nature of proxy conflict favors wars of attrition and containment. Moderate levels of killing to discomfort, not defeat opponents.
As in 2003, the general orientation of forces is centrifugal, driving Iraq society apart, which sucks us back in.
Here's the money graph from the NYT story on Oil Companies:
“Asking why oil companies are interested in Iraq is like asking why robbers rob banks: because that’s where the money is,” said Larry Goldstein, director of special projects at the Energy Policy Research Foundation, a Washington-based nonprofit that studies energy economics. “You can’t choose where the resources are. The risks are substantial, but everybody has to play by the same risks.”
The unintentional juxtaposing of Oil Companies and robbers is priceless.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/26/world/middleeast/26oil.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=iraq%20warily%20moving%20ahead%20on%20oil%20contracts&st=cse
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