Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Saturday, June 27, 2009

Mousavi Agrees to Seek Rally Permits;
9 am Bazaar Gatherings called in Iran

AP is reporting that opposition leader Mir-Hosein Mousavi has agreed to the Interior Ministry's demand that he apply for a permit one week in advance for any demonstrations, and will cease calling for unlicensed rallies. This is an about-face on Saturday from his stance just 24 hours earlier, when he said that the election theft attempt would be crushed. Mousavi did complain that rallies for his rival Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are allowed without all this rigamarole, implying that the Interior Ministry is treating him and his followers unfairly. D'oh.

The Iranian authorities are now alleging that they have examined a series of ballot boxes and found no evidence of fraud. The problem with this approach, which is being echoed by some Western observers, is that you have to explain the wholly implausible outcome first. Ballots can always be phonied up in various ways. When has there ever been a whistleblower in Egypt who explained how exactly the ruling National Democratic Party always wins parliamentary elections? And yet we know they are fixed. It isn't interesting how-- the *outcomes* tell us that they are.

Meanwhile grassroots protesters are still calling on Iranians to gather in the traditional markets at 9 am in Tehran and other cities, as an attempt to reinvent mass gatherings. This is a way for them to achieve a shop strike indirectly, hurting the economy and putting pressure on the regime.

The announcement says, 'If [the authorities] try to prevent us from doing this, they will inevitably close down the bazaar. If they don't prevent it, we will gather in such numbers that anyway the bazaar will be closed." They say people should just go, initially pretending to be ordinary shoppers, shouting no slogans and wearing no green. But once the pedestrians swell to large numbers in the bazaar, they should simply mill around and decline to buy anything, which will have the effect of making it impossible for real customers to buy anything, either. They portray this method as likely to avoid any bloodshed. (Bazaars are admittedly labyrinthine, and getting a bead on someone inside one may not be easy; and, the bazaaris or shopkeepers and artisans would rather mind gunplay around their merchandise, and they are a backbone for any regime in Iran that wants to survive very long.)

The organizers also say that they hope to see this message spread around the blogosphere, maintaining that the more Iranians who know about it, the better it will work.

This is the announcement in Persian:


Click on the image for larger text
.
(Hitting the 'control' button and the plus sign on the keyboard will also size the image up further in most browsers. But go to the larger text first, since it will show more clearly).

End/ (Not Continued)

9 Comments:

At 10:17 PM, Blogger Stephen Sherman said...

This tactic was announced 2-3 days ago. So, is your document new today (Fri PM/Sat AM)? Or just what appeared on Mousavi's FB on Tuesday? Please clarify date of doc. Thx.

 
At 2:45 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Can the Rafsanjani and Larijani stop the Khamenei/Hojjetieh Coup?

As the Iranian unrest enters a new phase, all eyes remain fixated on Qom and the Assembly of Experts. It has become clear that what happened on June 12 was the work of an alliance between Khamenei, who wants his son to succeed him as Rahbar, and Aya. Mesbeh-Yazdi, the rumored leader of the banned "Hojjatieh" society and Ahmedinejad's favorite Marja.

The society espouses a Taliban-like hardline view of Islamic Governement that not even Khomeini tolerated. Fixing an election is no big deal to these folks, who believe their cause is above the law.

Meanwhile, Hashemi Rafsanjani continues to "work the refs", hoping to convince the other Marja to intervene in stopping this power grab, which risks turning the Islamic Republic into a military dictatorship. Ransanjani likely has the support to move the Marjas into action, but the threat of retaliation probably keeps them from going public too loudly. A big factor seems to be whether the IRGC will be loyal to Khamenei, or the Islamic Republic system, in the aftermath of major action taken by the Experts' Assembly against the current Rahbar.

In this regard, watch Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani. A former IRGC commander, he has major support among the rank and file, rivaling Ahmedinejad. He doesn't want the Hojjetieh fanatics to control the government, and is close to Khamenei.

The way out of this mess seems to be if Larijani can persuade Khamenei to back down in a face saving manner. If Khamenei is faced with the prospect of the Marjas in Qom being ready to move against him, and no guarantee that the IRGC will use force to prevent that from happening, Khamenei could be persuaded to acquiesce to a runoff election, under whatever pretext he wants.

Khamenei could also continue to use overwhelming force, but at what cost? His standing in Qom is inversely proportional to the level of brutality in Tehran. It seems Iran is at a precipice, and only time will tell how this plays out.

 
At 4:51 AM, Anonymous Behnam said...

Those who know Persian could benefit greatly from reading Karroubi's newspaper:

http://www.etemaad.ir/Released/88-04-06/default.htm

Furthermore, the following is Mousavi's official site:

http://www.ghalamnews.ir/

 
At 5:43 AM, Anonymous Behnam said...

I've never had any affection for Ahmadinjead; but I would like to defend him against the suspicion of being Taliban-like. Agreed: that may be partly true of Mesbah-Yazdi, but not Ahmadinejad. And I don't think his record provides any grounds for this surmise.

 
At 10:48 AM, Blogger Hrundi V. Backshi said...

The problem with JC's stand on the election is that it is irrefutable, and hence ideological. He keeps talking about the fact that recounting the votes would not do, since the *outcome* already tells him that the election was a fraud ! This is a perfect example of an ideological stance.

So what are we supposed to do : annul election every time a candidate succeeds in getting crowds to the streets ? You know there are many types of crowds in Iran, you've seen only the "liberal" minded ones in Tehran this time around. Will you accept the other crowds next time Rezai or any other candidate of the moment complains rather frivolously about election rigging ?

Wasn't the race too close to call ? Why are you crying "putsch" and "dictator" after the results with only the slightest arsenal of rumors/suspicions/statements of principles?

A) The "Fisk/Makhmalbaf/Satrapi" letter (as it is known to me ;-)) is a joke (No argument here. But a retraction and admission of lying guilt from its supporters and the ones who spread it all over Europe will be welcome).
B) The thousands of statistical or psycho-statistical proofs and counter proofs (last digits everyone !) are just proofs of the West's patronizing and racist attitude towards Iran (they obviously prove nothing about the election result : maybe, maybe not)
C) The psychological argument "a posteriori" ("the 'people' where shocked by Ahmadinejad's victory, and rightly assumed it was a coup") is pure propaganda technique : the pre-election day race was close but also leaning towards an Ahmadinejad victory. People should stop lying to themselves about this fact. No shock, no surprise, no justification for the uprising IN THIS WAY (I am for reforms in Iran, and consider the current events a disaster for this cause).

We are left with an undesired outcome (prior to the election I had wished A-N was defeated and someone like Karroubi elected), but on top of it, we have :
i) a weakened Iran on the world stage,
ii) a radicalized government on the interior front, more repressive and less transparent
iii) a frustrated and heartbroken segment of the population in the cities ("the young ones")
iv) a bunch of new morons in the West's capitals, made by the onslaught of lies, propaganda, catch phrase arguments, new media techniques (say nothing, but say it constantly, or "twitter"), etc. No one should minimize the damage this new class of morons can wreck on Iran or on the West's next punch bag target in the coming years.

As another example of irrefutable "stories", see the comment to this JC article by Anonymous at 2:45 above (Is that so ? Hum...)

 
At 1:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here's your pop-cultural nitpick of the day:

D'oh is not the same as duh.

 
At 2:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"So what are we supposed to do : annul election every time a candidate succeeds in getting crowds to the streets ?"

If on the night of the Bush vs. Gore election, Bush had ordered the shutting down of dozens of liberal newspaper outlets and journalists, and over the next few days, arrested without charge hundreds of Democrats who a few years ago were running the country, and then, in response to by and large peaceful protests in the next few days, used live ammunition and killed/injured dozens of people...

Yes, the election should have and would have been annulled.

 
At 3:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

So much for Obama's war in Pakistan.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/28/world/asia/28swat.html

June 26, 2009

Taliban Losses No Sure Gain for Pakistanis
By JANE PERLEZ and PIR ZUBAIR SHAH

Pakistan’s overall stability may be threatened by a decision by militants to flee a fight but return later or fight elsewhere.

 
At 5:22 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This editorial raises interesting and valid points:

Media Fantasies in Iran

 

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