Top 10 Challenges Facing the US in the Middle East, 2008

10. Helping broker a deal in Lebanon between the March 14 Movement and the Shiites so that a new president can be elected and a national unity government can be formed.

Lebanon's economy was badly damaged by the Israeli war on the poor little country in summer of 2006. Tourism is a big part of that economy, and is being hurt by the continued political instability. Given historically high oil prices, Iran will probably make $56 billion from petroleum sales this year. That gives it lots of carrots to hand out in Lebanon. If the Lebanese were better off, foreign oil money would not be as important to them. Likewise, the country's poverty breeds social ills. Hizbullah militiamen might be harder to find if there was well-paying work for young men in the south. The dire poverty of Palestinians in camps such as Nahr al-Bared near Tripoli has made them open to predations by Mafia-like groups linked to al-Qaeda. Just a couple of weeks ago, Lebanese security broke up a plot to blow up churches in Zahle on the part of a small group of jihadis. An economically flourishing Lebanon would be less likely to be beset by these ills. The Levant is not that far away from the US or its major interests, and it is very unwise to allow the pathological situation in Lebanon to fester. A prosperous, healthy Lebanon is good for US security and is less likely to become the cat's paw of regional powers hostile to US interests.

9. The US should exercise its good offices to encourage continued dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The capture of Baghdad by the Shiites and the ethnic cleansing of most Sunnis from it have set the stage for a big Sunni-Shiite battle for the capital as soon as the US troops get out of the way. It is absolutely essential to Gulf security, and to American energy security, that Saudi Arabia and Iran not be drawn into a proxy Sunni-Shiite war in Iraq. Keeping in close contact with each other and with Iraqis of the other sect is the best way for them to avoid a replay of the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s. Those in the Bush administration who dream of an Israeli-Saudi alliance against Iran are playing with fire, a fire that is likely to boomerang on the US. If the Persian Gulf goes up any further in flames, the resulting unprecedentedly high petroleum prices will likely finally produce a bad impact on the US economy. Instead, the US should be attempting to bring Iran in from the cold, now that the NIE has absolved it of nuclear-weapons ambitions.

8. Congress should expand funding for, and guarantee the future of, the Combatting Terrorism Center at West Point. Its researchers do among the very best jobs of analyzing the writings and activities of the Salafi Jihadis, and so of combatting them. Few government institutions are as effective. If the US government were serious about the threat of terrorism, I would not even have to make this plea. Of course, if Bush and Cheney had really cared about the threat of al-Qaeda, they would have gone after it and gotten Bin Laden and al-Zawahiri rather than rushing off on a fool's errand in Iraq.

7. The US must repair its tattered relations with Turkey. Turkey has been a NATO ally for decades and Turkish troops fought alongside American ones in the Korean War. Turkey stood with the US in the Cold War and gave the US bases on its soil. As a secular country, it is an ally in the struggle against the Salafi Jihadis, for which even religious Turks have contempt. Turkey has among the more promising economies in the Middle East, among non-oil states, and is attracting billions in foreign investment. The US has for some strange reason stiffed Turkey several times in the past decade. The Clinton administration promised Turkey a billion dollars in restitution for the monies it lost during the Gulf War, and then Congress refused to appropriate the money. More recently, the US has unleashed a virulent and violent Kurdish nationalism by allying with Massoud Barzani in Iraq. Barzani in turn has given safe harbor to guerrillas of the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), who have been going over the border and killing Turks, then retreating to Iraq. The Bush administration has tried to resolve this probably by helping the Turks bombard PKK positions inside Iraq, but that is not ideal. Instead, the US should put economic and other pressure on Barzani to expel the PKK from Iraq.

6. The US must keep the pressure on Pervez Musharraf to hold free and fair, early elections in Pakistan. The elections probably cannot be held on Jan. 8, as planned, because of the extensive turmoil and destruction of polling stations and ballots during the past few days. But they should not be postponed past March 1. Musharraf's own legitimacy has collapsed, and he is in danger of becoming a Shah of Iran figure, hated by his own people and driven from office. Such a scenario could be very bad for the United States. That is why Joe Biden is right and John McCain is wrong when the latter warns against dumping Musharraf. Why cannot the American Right learn that backing the wrong horse is often worse than not having a horse in the first place?

5. The US and NATO have to stop doing search and destroy missions in Afghanistan. The Pushtun tribespeople are never going to put up with tens of thousands of foreign troops in their country, and, indeed, in their underwear drawers. Search and destroy missions just multiply feuds with local people. The NATO and US military missions in Afghanistan have to be redefined so that they are not simply putting down tribes for the central government. The best Afghan central governments have ruled by playing the tribes off against one another, not by trying to crush them. The solutions in Afghanistan are political and economic. More reconstruction needs to be done. Farmers need aid to be weaned off poppies. Forced eradication of poppy crops appears to be behind a lot of the "Taliban resurgence," which actually often looks to me from a distance like angry farmers taking revenge for the destruction of their livelihoods.

4. The US must facilitate provincial elections in Iraq. They are arguably more important than any other step. They would solve a number of important problems.

The Sunni Arab provinces of Al-Anbar, Salahuddin, Ninevah and Diyala have unrepresentative governments (Diyalah, 60% Sunni, is ruled by the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, a hard line Shiite group!) The Sunni Arab parties declined to run in January, 2005, and there have been no subsequent provincial elections. Representative Sunni provincial governments could negotiate from a greater position of strength with the federal government of Shiite Dawa Party leader and prime minister Nuri al-Maliki. Some of the Awakening Councils members, who are self-appointed, might get elected and so gain greater legitimacy.

Without legitimate provincial governments in the Sunni Arab provinces, it is hard to see how the US can hope to withdraw troops and turn over security to locals, as Gen. Petraeus had planned to do in Mosul this year.

In the south, Basra needs new elections because its provincial government saw a major division this year, leading to an ISCI-led vote of no confidence in the governor, who is from the Islamic Virtue Party. But then the governor refused to step down! Ineffective governance in oil-rich Basra, which contains the country's only major ports, is bad for the whole country. In some other southern provinces, such as Diwaniya, a more representative provincial government might make for more social peace.

What I am saying now is not new, and Ambassador Ryan Crocker and Gen. Petraeus have repeatedly called for such elections. I am saying, now is the time to make a big push for them. If the US starts drawing down troops this year, it will make it harder to hold elections, since the Iraqi security forces probably cannot keep the voters dafe. If the US leaves behind the current provincial governments, as with Diyala, Diwaniya and Basra in particular, it is probably leaving behind provincial civil wars.

3. The US Congress must allocate substantial funds, on the order of $1 billion or more, for Iraqi refugee relief in Syria and Jordan. UNO relief funds are running out. Iraqis' own savings are running out. Children are not in school and are going hungry. People are being exploited, including young girls forced into prostitution. A majority of the 1.5 million Iraqis in Syria went there in 2007, and almost all of them have been forced out of Baghdad and other areas because of the political instability that the United States unleashed in their country. The surge is being touted as a victory in the US press, but it seems to have displaced 700,000 Iraqi civilians! The US is spending $15 billion a month on the Iraqi and Afghanistan Wars. It can afford $1 billion a year for refugee relief. This is our responsibility. How future generations of Iraqis view the United States will in part depend on whether we do this. I ask all Americans to write your congressional representatives and press them on this humanitarian issue.

2. The Bush administration should expend all of its remaining political capital in the region to have the Israelis return the Golan Heights to Syria. The Golan was captured in 1967. By the United Nations Charter, countries may not permanently grab the territory of their neighbors. The Syrians will have to agree to keep the Golan a demilitarized zone, with UNO blue helmets patrolling as a safeguard. In return, Syria would have to agree to cease backing Palestinian militants and would have to play a positive role in creating a Palestinian state. Damascus would also have to work to restore social peace in Lebanon. Such a deal might help to detach Syria from its alliance with Iran. That in turn would weaken Hizbullah. This deal would be good for Israeli security, and if it helped speed up the creation of a Palestinian state, might even keep Israel from falling into the Apartheid situation that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert recently said he fears.

1. The US must insist that the Israeli siege of Gaza must be lifted. A third of Palestinians killed by Israel this year were innocent civilians. The agricultural sector is being destroyed because farmers cannot export their goods owing to the Israeli blockade. Food, water, essential medicines are all being denied to civilian populations, including children. If Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is so worried about Israel being seen as an Apartheid state, he should release Gazans from their penitentiary and stop deploying collective punishment against civilians.
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McClatchy: Edwards, Romney Lead in Iowa

McClatchy has a new Iowa poll out, taken Dec. 26-28. It shows that there was no spike among Iowa voters in concern for international affairs or terrorism in the wake of the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan.

The poll shows that Mitt Romney has a significant lead, 27% to 23% for former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, whose momentum has slowed, and that Huckabee has lost ground even among evangelicals as the spotlight has been put on him.

This is a really small poll, of 400 Democrats and 400 Republicans, with a massive plus or minus margin of error, of 5%. So I don't think Edwards' one-point lead in this poll means much. But that the race is tight is obvious enough. And, it is likely that the finding of no increased concern about international affairs or terrorism is solid. If so, that does help Edwards. Also, the article argues that Edwards' numbers have shown an upward trend, and that he could benefit if the second-tier candidates don't reach 15%, since voters could then turn to someone else, and he is the second choice for a lot of, e.g., Richardson supporters.
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Bilawal, Zardari, Fahim to lead PPP; Will Contest Jan. 8 Polls

The Pakistan People's Party movers and shakers have annointed Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, 19, the son of slain Benazir Bhutto, as its next leader. He will continue his studies at Oxford while his father, Asif Zardari, acts as regent. The PPP will run Makhdum Amin Fahim as its candidate for prime minister, and will contest the January 8 elections (apparently they are counting on a sympathy vote, and may also be afraid the country will slip into martial law if the civil disturbances continue). The other major party with grass roots, the Muslim League-N, led by Nawaz Sharif, had said it would boycott the elections. But Sharif said Saturday he would reconsider the boycott if the PPP decided to go ahead.

Fahim is what is called in Pakistan a "feudal landlord," with a BA in political science from the provincial Sindh University. He has been parliamentary leader of the PPP in recent years. The Pakistan People's Party was created in the late 1960s by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and has all along been led by that family and its retainers. "Makhdum," Fahim's ancestral title, means "served" and is a term applied in South Asia to a Sufi leader. Great medieval Sufis were given lands to support them by Muslim rulers like the Mughals, so that in many instances their descendants are big landowners, and the family's spiritual vocation has disappeared. Fahim is a secular politician, and like a lot of the Pakistani elite, likes a good stiff drink of bourbon.

The PPP during the past two decades has been internally split between a rising middle class urban leadership and the old landowning families. An alternative to Fahim would have been the smart Punjabi lawyer, Aitzaz Ahsan, who was jailed for protesting the dismissal of the justices, and is admired by a lot of the urban activists. Despite Benazir's own education abroad, her instincts (and now those of her widower) was always to "run the feudals," and to depend on the landlords' ability to get out the vote among their own (largely illiterate and repressed) peasants.

The PPP leadership had a chance to become the party of the future and to galvanize the new middle class, which has spearheaded the challenge to Musharraf over his gutting of the judiciary. It has instead run the feudals again. Fahim seems to me unlikely to generate the sort of excitement that Aitzaz Ahsan would have. But then, the PPP will probably get a big sympathy vote. Once in power, however, unless it pursues policies that benefit urban classes, it will find itself eclipsed.

Barnett Rubin's WSJ op-ed on Bhutto's assassination is now available in full at our group Global Affairs blog.
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Pakistan Riots Continue; Clinton: 'An inside job?' Rehman: "A Cover-up"

Violence continued in Pakistan on Saturday, as did a virtual shut-down of the country, with most shops and businesses shuttered.

In the US, Sen. Hillary Clinton provoked controversy when she said, according to Newsday: ' "There are those saying that al-Qaida did it. Others are saying it looked like it was an inside job -- remember Rawalpindi is a garrison city," she said. '

She added that Pakistan's

' "feudal landowning leadership," led by Musharraf, has protected al-Qaida to preserve its tenuous grip on power. '

The Pakistani elite has a lot of landlords in it, but has diversified. The officer corps is no longer primarily from the landlord class. There are new industrialists and entrepreneurs.

The reason that the military has been reluctant to finish off the Pakistani Taliban in the north (which in turn hosts some al-Qaeda remnants) is because the Taliban are a useful way of projecting Pakistani power into southern Afghanistan. The Pakistani security establishment views the Karzai government as too beholden to Tajiks and as too close diplomatically to India and Iran. The Pakistani military thus has the difficult balancing act of containing the Pakistani Taliban inside Pakistan (so that it does not spill over onto Peshawar or Islamabad) but keeping it sufficiently alive that it can be deployed against Afghanistan.

In any case, it seems pretty clear that if Clinton wins the presidency, she is going to have bad relations with Pervez Musharraf, assuming he is still around in 2009.

Meanwhile, Clinton's suspicions were underscored by Bhutto aide Sherry Rehman, who said that she saw bullet wounds in Bhutto's head. She disputed a government report that Bhutto died from being thrown against a lever of her sun roof by the blast of a suicide bomb. She told CNN, "It's beginning to look like a cover up to me . . ." Apparently PPP leaders suspect that Bhutto's bullet wounds might point back to involvement by Musharraf's security forces (did he use a standard police or army firearm?). A mere suicide bombing would apparently be easier to reconcile with the government's allegation that a jihadi group was behind the assassination. The warring narratives about Bhutto's death therefore appear to have a CSI sort of forensic concern behind them. Different physical evidence would point in different directions as to perpetrator.

Mobs roamed Karachi for a third straight day on Saturday, continuing to set fires and attack federal government property. AFP reports,, "On the second day of official mourning for the slain opposition leader, most people were unable to buy food or petrol, with almost all shops, fuel stations, banks and offices closed down." In Karachi, food remained scarce, with vegetable markets closed and farmers unable to bring shipments in from the countryside.

The province of Sindh also continued to suffer disturbances on Saturday.

Over 40 persons have been killed in the three days of violence throughout the country, and scores injured.


In Peshawar, PPP wokers continued to stage protests. Most of the city was closed, and the streets were deserted except for the protesters.

An angry crowd set fire to the cable company, leaving Lahore, Peshawar and other major cities without access to the internet. International phone calls also became harder to make.

The Pakistan People's Party will meet Sunday afternoon Pakistan time to choose a successor to Bhutto and to decide whether to contest elections, and when.
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OSC: Bin Ladin Vows Jihad for 'Liberation of Entire Palestine' After Iraq

The USG Open Source Center summarizes and partially translates the new audio release by Usama Bin Laden. He urges a focus on Iraq and Israel, and he praises the late Abu Musab al-Zarqawi for having attacked the Shiites. He also pledges to attack Israel and accused HAMAS of selling out. Bin Laden sounds increasingly desperate, appearing to realize that the Iraqi Sunnis have turned against the Salafi Jihadis who often admire him. The Palestinians have worked hard to keep al-Qaeda out of Palestine, and Israeli security has forestalled effective al-Qaeda attacks in Israel. That is a hard target, not like the US in 2001, and he is likely to be shown up as an ineffective braggart if he starts taking on the hardy Israelis. In fact, he seems beside himself with frustration that the Arab League has offered full recognition to Israel for a return to 1967 borders. Bin Laden continues the stupid policy of attacking the Shiites, both Hizbullah in Lebanon and those of Iraq, thus dividing the Muslims. Muslim publics have increasing turned critical of tactics like suicide bombings. And Bin Laden's own popularity has been plummeting among most Muslims. Fawaz Gerges has written about how a lot of al-Qaeda members are furious at him and Ayman al-Zawahiri for bringing the full wrath of a superpower down on them, scattering them from Qandahar, forcing them to live as fugitives, and virtually destroying the organization.

FYI -- Bin Ladin Vows Jihad for 'Liberation of Entire Palestine' After Iraq
Jihadist Websites -- OSC Summary
Saturday, December 29, 2007

On 29 December, a participant in a jihadist website posted several links to a 56-minute audio message by Al-Qa'ida Organization leader Usama Bin Ladin entitled "The Way to Foil Plots" produced by the Al-Sahab Media Production Organization, the media arm of Al-Qa'ida Organization.

The audio recording plays against the background of a still image of Bin Ladin and a map of Iraq.

Bin Ladin begins his message by addressing the Islamic nation in general, the "patient and steadfast people in Iraq's fronts and fortress towns," the "leaders of mujahidin groups and shura councils," and "the chieftains of free and proud tribes."

Bin Ladin says: "My talk to you is about the plots that are being hatched by the Zionist-Crusader alliance, led by America, in cooperation with its agents in the region, to steal the fruit of blessed jihad in the land of two rivers, and what we should do to foil these plots. It is no secret that America is using all military and political means to entrench its troops in Iraq. Having realized its military failure, it stepped up its political and media efforts to deceive Muslims. One of its wicked schemes was to tempt the tribes and buy their allegiance to form the councils of dissension, which they termed as awakening councils."

He notes that "many" tribes refused to form such councils. He beseeches God to help these tribes to adhere to this stand. He accuses late Abd-al-Sattar Abu-Rishah, founder of Al-Anbar Awakening Council, of "betraying the religion and nation."

Bin Ladin adds: "Recruiting hypocrite chieftains of tribes is one axis. America, along with its agents in the region, is seeking through the other axis to form a new government that is loyal to it, like the Gulf countries' governments, instead of Al-Maliki government. This government will also be called a national unity government."

He says: "In the name of the homeland and patriotism, the Crusaders are being strengthened in the land of two rivers too by installing a government that is agent to America, a government which agrees in advance to the existence of major US bases in the land of Iraq and gives the Americans whatever they want of Iraq's oil according to the oil law to continue to subjugate it and maintain absolute hegemony over the rest of the countries of the region."

He criticizes the "leader of the so-called Islamic Party" for calling for signing a security agreement with the United States.

Bin Ladin calls on the "sane people" to learn a lesson from the fate of HAMAS Movement's leadership. He says: "It (HAMAS leadership) relinquished its religion and did not achieve worldly gains when it obeyed the ruler of Riyadh and others by entering the national unity state and respecting the unjust international charters. Will the honest ones in HAMAS correct its course?"

Bin Ladin says: "Just as the rulers of Riyadh tempted the leaders of HAMAS, they are seeking to tempt the mujahidin groups in Iraq. They allow some groups to confidently move in the Gulf countries to receive support, but not official support, which these groups reject. The support is channeled under the banner of raising donations by some unofficial scholars and preachers. Many of them, however, are loyal to the state and seek to implement its policy in Iraq by pulling the rug from under honest mujahidin's feet. The mission of these scholars and preachers is to convince the leaders of these groups of the same previous condition; that is, accepting a national unity government, in addition to urging them to air tendentious propaganda against the Islamic State of Iraq and fight it if possible. This is one of the secrets of the fierce military and media campaign against the state."

He accuses the "ruler of Riyadh' of being the "main US agent in the region."

He hails late Abu-Mus'ab al-Zarqawi for exposing and fighting Shiite militias in Iraq.

He calls for unity among "all honest mujahidin" in Iraq to "foil all plots."

Bin Ladin cites as an example "an effort in the past to unify the leaders of Afghan mujahidin."

Bin Ladin goes on to say that "those leaders are tradesmen who care about their leadership and give priority to their personal interests over the cause."

He goes on to speak about the Northern Alliance, led by (former Afghan President Borhanoddin) Rabbani and (Abd-al-Rasul) Sayyaf, which has become a helper and a supporter to America against the mujahidin in Afghanistan.

He adds that the same applies to Iraq where "the Islamic Party and some groups, which are involved in fighting, support America against Muslims" saying that this is "outright infidelity."

He urges the Iraqi Islamic Party and other factions that are involved in fighting "to disavow their leaders and correct the course of their parties and groups", saying that "if this is not possible, they should leave those hypocrite leaders and join honest mujahidin in the Land of the Two Rivers."
He adds: "America exerted great efforts in the past to convince Afghan leaders through the governments of Riyadh and Islamabad to join a national unity government with communists and secularists who came from the west." He goes on to say that "the government of Riyadh continues until this day to carry out the same malicious roles with many Islamic action leaders and commanders of mujahidin in our nation."

He goes on to speak at length about the reasons behind the Afghan leaders' failure to achieve unity and urges the mujahidin to be wise and consider matters thoroughly before pledging allegiance to their leaders.

He urges the mujahidin not to be misled by the names of parties or their leaders. He says that Sayyaf was one of the most prominent leaders of mujahidin, but he helped America against Muslims. He adds that the same applies to Rabbani and Ahmad Shah Mas'ud.
He condemns the leaders who committed one of the "nullifiers of Islam" by supporting "the infidels against Muslims."

Bin Ladin concludes by saying that "the brother mujahidin, especially in the Shura councils, should not yield to the excuses of the amirs of groups by obstructing unity and accord."

He adds that "Muslims were pleased when a number of the amirs of groups, which are fighting for the sake of God, and a number of chiefs of steadfast and mujahid tribes unified their stand under the banner of monotheism and pledged allegiance to honorable Shaykh Abu-Umar al-Baghdadi as amir of the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI)."

Bin Ladin says: "The states that call themselves Muslim states are many. However, those with discerning know that they all lack the prerequisites that are regarded as the most important prerequisites of Muslim states, chief among which is upholding God's shari'ah, not to mention that the sovereignty of all of them is flawed, and that they all, without exception, cooperated, in one way or another, with America in the world war on Islam, which is a nullifier of one's Islam. Nonetheless, many people treat these states as if they were sovereign Muslim states. This treatment is religiously impermissible, given all that has been said."

Bin Ladin adds: "Had complete empowerment been a prerequisite of the establishment of an Islamic state at present, Islam would not have seen a state of its own. This is because everybody knows that given the huge military superiority of the adversaries, the latter can invade any country and topple its government, as happened in Afghanistan. They toppled the Ba'thist Iraqi Government. Nonetheless, the fall of the state is not the end of the world, nor does it mean that the Islamic community and the Islamic imam collapsed. As a matter of fact, jihad against the infidels should continue, as is happening in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Somalia."

Bin Ladin argues that "complete empowerment" is not a prerequisite of making a pledge of allegiance to the imam, or of establishing an Islamic state. He adds that the leader to whom a pledge of allegiance is made should be obeyed. Bin Ladin says that repeated appeals were addressed to "the mujahidin leaders" urging them to get together. However, some of them failed to heed these appeals while some others heeded the appeals. He urges all jihadist groups to come together under one banner.
Bin Ladin says: "He who follows the local and global campaigns of infidelity can see that they are primarily targeted against the Islamic State of Iraq. For America is repeatedly carrying out campaigns, one after another, against the same city. As a matter of fact, there has been an ongoing campaign against the whole of Diyala for the past six months. The same holds true for Mosul and Salah al-Din. Other campaigns are being carried out by the army, the National Guard, and the police, not to mention other campaigns carried out by the Al-Sadr and Al-Hakim militias. Besides, all neighboring countries without exception are targeting the Islamic State of Iraq, not to mention the awakening councils, parties, and groups of dissension led by Tariq al-Hashimi, who betrayed the faith and the Ummah. This is to be added to the media campaigns aimed at misrepresenting the Islamic State of Iraq for which the Riyadh rulers, their scholars, and their media outlets are to blame."

Bin Ladin adds: "Amir Abu-Umar (al-Baghdadi) and his brothers are not of those who would bargain over their faith and accept half-solutions, or who would meet the enemies halfway. Rather, they come out openly with the truth and satisfy the Creator even if this were to result in angering the creatures." He adds that they refuse to pander to the governments of Muslim states.

Elaborating on this issue, Bin Ladin says: "Had the leaders of the Islamic State of Iraq joined hands with any neighboring state so that the latter may provide it with backing and support, as some groups and parties have done, the situation would have been different," as these groups and parties have huge budgets compared to the budget of the Islamic State of Iraq.

Bin Ladin condemns the acceptance by Hizballah Secretary General Hasan Nasrallah of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 on Lebanon, which authorized the entry of "Crusader armies into Lebanese territory." He wonders: "Are people unaware that these armies are the other face of the US-Zionist alliance?" He adds: "Nonetheless, (Hizballah) Secretary General Hasan Nasrallah is deceiving people. He welcomed these armies in public and promised to facilitate their mission even though he knows that they were coming to protect the Jews and seal off the borders in the face of the honest mujahidin." He contends that Nasrallah did so to accommodate the wishes of the states backing him.
Bin Ladin says that the conduct of the "amirs of mujahidin" in Iraq is not known to many people, attributing this to "the circumstances and security requirements of the war." He adds: "However, I reckon that ignorance about the affairs of the amirs of the mujahidin in Iraq is harmless ignorance if they have been recommended by trusted, fair persons, such as Amir Abu-Umar (al-Baghdadi), who has been recommended by trusted, fair mujahidin. He was also recommended by Amir Abu-Mus'ab (al-Zarqawi), may God have mercy on him, and War Minister Abu-Hamzah al-Muhajir." Bin Ladin adds: "Refraining from pledging allegiance to one of the amirs of mujahidin in Iraq after their recommendation by trusted, fair persons under the pretext of not knowing their conduct leads to great evils, one of the gravest of which is obstructing the establishment of the great Muslim nation under one imam."

Concluding his statement, Bin Ladin says: "In conclusion, I assure Muslims in general and our people in the neighboring states in particular, that they will see nothing from the mujahidin but all that is good, God willing. We are your sons. We are defending the religion of the nation, and we are defending its sons. The Muslim victims who fall during the operations against the infidel Crusaders or their usurper agents are not the intended targets. God knows that we are deeply saddened when some Muslims fall victim. Yet, we hold ourselves responsible and seek God's forgiveness for that. We beseech God to have mercy on them and let Paradise be their final abode and to compensate their families and relatives. You must be aware that the enemy deliberately takes its positions among the Muslims to let them serve as human shields for it."
Bin Ladin then urges the militants to avoid common Muslims in their strikes. He says: "In fact, our enmity is with the agent rulers, to whom we give no assurances. Rather, we are seeking to topple them and to refer them to the Islamic judiciary. How can we assure them while they have befriended the enemies of the nation and have done this nation great harm? How can we assure them while they have mixed the law of humans with the law of God Almighty? How can we assure them while the path to the broadest front for the liberation of Palestine passes through the lands that are under their control? I assure our kinfolk in Palestine in particular that we will expand our jihad, God willing, and we will not recognize the Sykes-Picot borders or the rulers appointed by the colonialists. By God, we have not forgotten you after the 9/11 events. Will anyone forget his own family? However, after those blessed raids, which hit the head and heart of global infidelity, the biggest ally of the Zionist entity, America, we are now busy fighting it and its agents, especially in Iraq, Afghanistan, Islamic Magreb, and Somalia. If it is defeated along with its agents in Iraq, God willing, then soon will the legions of mujahidin march, in successive brigades, from Baghdad, Al-Anbar, Mosel, Diyala, and Salah al-Din to restore Hittin to us, God willing. We will not recognize a state for the Jews, not even on one inch of the land of Palestine, as did all the rulers of the Arabs when they adopted the initiative of the ruler of Riyadh years ago."

Bin Ladin adds: "Nor will we respect the international conventions recognizing the Zionist entity over the land of Palestine, as the HAMAS leadership did, or as stated by some Muslim Brotherhood leaders. It will be a jihad for the liberation of entire Palestine, from the river to the sea, God willing, joining hands with the sincere mu jahidin there from the cadres of HAMAS and other factions."
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OSC: Urdu Press Roundup on Reaction to Benazir Bhutto Assassination

The USG Open Source Center excerpts and paraphrases editorials in the major Urdu-language Pakistani newspapers concerning the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.

Pakistan: Urdu Press Roundup on Reaction to Benazir Bhutto Assassination
Pakistan -- OSC Summary
Saturday, December 29, 2007

Note: I decided to file the full text of this report at the Global Affairs blog (click on this link).
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Huckabee Obsesses about 660 Pakistani Aliens; Clinton's 5 Point Plan

Mike Huckabee is a smooth-talking, fanatical country preacher who has learned to make himself likeable on camera but who spews all kinds of hateful nonsense when among like-minded devotees.

The dark side of Huckabee, the anti-science and anti-gay side of Huckabee, and the anti-Palestinian genocidal side of Huckabee, are all much more dangerous than the incompetent fool side of Huckabee, but the latter is pretty dangerous, too.

The incompetent fool side was on full display in his remarks, apparently provoked by the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, about the alleged threat of illegal Pakistani immigration into the United States. He actually thundered about 660 persons, claiming that the Pakistanis came right after Latinos in the ranks of illegals. He also seemed to think that building a wall around Mexico would keep out Pakistanis (the illegals among whom likely mostly just overstayed their visas and landed at LaGuardia).

He actually repeated his gaffe when questioned by reporters:

' "I am making the observation that we have more Pakistani illegals coming across our border than all other nationalities except those immediately south of the border," he said, repeating the assertion he made to his audience earlier. "And in light of what is happening in Pakistan it ought to give us pause as to why are so many illegals coming across these borders." '

There are an estimated 12 million illegal immigrants in the US. AP writes, "the Pew Hispanic Center said Mexicans make up 56 percent of illegal immigrants. An additional 22 percent come from other Latin American countries, mainly in Central America. About 13 percent are from Asia, and Europe and Canada combine for 6 percent." Even among the 1.5 million or so illegals from Asia, Chinese, Filipinos, Koreans, Vietnamese and others predominate. Pakistanis must be a vanishingly small proportion. Why even bring them up? Is it possible that our country preacher is bigotted against Muslims?

Huckabee's first response to Benazir's assassination was to ask whether "martial law" would be "lifted." Martial law had not been declared, rather a constitutionally permissible "state of emergency" had been declared by Musharraf. He lifted it some time before Huckabee's remark.

Huckabee is a narrow-minded, bigotted and ignorant person, and I am quite sure that the American people have had enough of that sort of thing in the White House for a while. On the other hand, I certainly hope that he emerges as the Republican standard-bearer, because I think any Democratic candidate could make mincemeat of him once his bizarre views become public.

You contrast the absolute nonsensical drivel coming out of Huckabee's mouth with the following interview of Hillary Clinton by Wolf Blitzer on CNN's Situation Room on Friday, and Clinton's mature experience and careful, knowledgeable phrasing are like a silk purse to Huckabee's sow's ear:

' Wolf Blitzer: There are conflicting reports coming in from the Pakistani government right now about the cause of death, who may have been responsible; perhaps al Qaeda, maybe not. The bottom line: do you trust the Pakistani government right now to conduct a fair and full investigation so that all of us around the world will know who killed this woman and how she was killed?

Hillary Clinton: I don't think the Pakistani government at this time under President Musharraf has any credibility at all. They have disbanded an independent judiciary, they have oppressed a free press. Therefore, I’m calling for a full, independent, international investigation, perhaps along the lines of what the United Nations has been doing with respect to the assassination of Prime Minister Hariri in Lebanon. I think it is critically important that we get answers and really those are due first and foremost to the people of Pakistan, not only those who were supportive of Benazir Bhutto and her party, but every Pakistani because we cannot expect to move toward stability without some reckoning as to who was responsible for this assassination.

Therefore, I call on President Musharraf and the Pakistani government to realize that this is in the interests of Pakistan to understand whether or not it was al Qaeda or some other offshoot extremist group that is attempting to further destabilize and even overthrow the Pakistani government, or whether it came from within, either explicitly or implicitly, the security forces or the military in Pakistan. The thing I’ve not been able to understand, Wolf - I have met with President Musharraf, I obviously knew Benazir Bhutto and admired her leadership – is that President Musharraf, in every meeting I have had with him, the elites in Pakistan who still wield tremendous power plus the leadership of the military act as though they can destabilize Pakistan and retain their positions; their positions of privilege, their positions of authority. That is not the way it will work. I am really calling on them to recognize that the world deserves the answer; the Bhutto family deserves the answer, but this is in the best interest of the Pakistani people and the state of Pakistan.

Blitzer: Senator, just to be precise; you want a United Nations international tribunal, or commission of inquiry, whatever you want to call it, along the lines of the investigation into the assassination of Rafik Hariri?

HRC: There are other institutions that are international that have credibility, like INTERPOL and others. It doesn’t have to be the exact model of the Hariri investigation but it needs to be international, it needs to be independent, it needs to have credibility and nothing that would happen inside of Pakistan would. I’m reluctant to say it should be an American investigation where we send our law enforcement personnel, because I’m not sure that would have credibility for a different reason. So that’s why I’m calling for an independent international investigation.

Blitzer: This is a damning indictment of President Pervez Musharraf. Some are calling on him to step down, do you believe he should step down?

Clinton: What I believe is that he should meet certain conditions and quickly. We should immediately move to free and fair elections. Obviously, it’s going to take some time for Benazir Bhutto’s party to choose a successor. Nawaz Sharif has said that he won’t participate at this time. I believe again some kind of international support for free and fair elections in a timely manner would be incredibly important. If President Musharraf wishes to stand for election, then he should abide by the same rules that every other candidate will have to follow. We also want to see a resumption of the move toward an independent judiciary. I think that was a terrible mistake. This is an odd situation, Wolf. The people in the streets are wearing suits and ties, they are lawyers, they are professionals, they are the middle class of Pakistan, which really offers the very best hope for a stable, democratic country and that is in America’s interest, but more importantly, it is in the interest of the Pakistani people.

Blitzer: I think I understood what you were implying when you said a U.S. investigation probably wouldn’t have credibility for different reasons but explain to our viewers out there why you’re suggesting a U.S. investigation into the death of Benazir Bhutto probably wouldn’t have credibility either.

Clinton: I think it would politicize it at a time when what we want to do is, as much as possible, support the continuing move toward democracy. We need, frankly, an international tribunal to look into this where there can be a broad base of experts who are not aligned with any one country. Obviously I would certainly offer our expertise through the FBI and others to assist that tribunal. But I think it would be much better for it to be independent and impartial and be seen as that. Part of what our challenge here is, is to convince the Pakistani people themselves and particularly the business elite, the feudal elite, the military elite that they are going down a very dangerous path. That this path leads to their losing their positions, their authority, their obvious leadership now. Therefore we need to help them understand what is in their interest and that of course includes President Musharraf.

Blitzer: Over the years, since 9/11, the United States has provided the Pakistani military with some $10 billion. Will you as a United States Senator continue to vote for funding of these billions of dollars going to the Pakistani military?

Clinton: No, and I’m very pleased that finally the Congress began to put some conditions on the aid. I do not think that we should be giving the Musharraf government a blank check and that’s exactly what the Bush Administration has done. Even after Musharraf cracked down on the judiciary and the press and the pro-democracy movement in Pakistan, President Bush was saying he was a reliable ally. Well, I don’t think he’s a reliable ally when he undermines democracy and when he has failed to reign in the Al Qaeda Islamist elements in his own country.

So I think we do need to condition aid. I would do it differently. I would say, look, we want to know very specifically what accountability you’re going to offer to us for the military aid that we believe should be going in the fight against Al Qaeda and the Taliban. The Department of Defense is equally unaccountable with the money that passes through them.

I’d like to see more of our aid shifted toward building civil society. I’ve been calling for this. I have legislation that is bi-partisan, Education for All that is particularly aimed -- I’ve talked to President Musharraf about the necessity for us to raise the literacy rate, to reach out with health care and education that would help the Pakistani people to really concentrate on civil society.

We should be working with these rather heroic lawyers and others who are in the streets demanding democracy instead of giving the Bush blank check to President Musharraf and the military.

Blitzer: But aren’t you afraid, Senator, that as imperfect and as flawed as President Musharraf is, there’s a possibility whoever comes to replace him in this large Muslim country with a nuclear arsenal already, heavy al Qaeda presence, a resurgent Taliban - that the alternative could be even worse from the U.S. perspective?

Clinton: Of course. We all fear that and that’s why we need to take remedial action immediately. When I came back from my last meeting with President Musharraf in January of this year, I called the White House, I asked that they appoint an American envoy, a presidential envoy. I suggested that a retired military leader who could relate to President Musharraf on a one-to-one basis and could shuttle back and forth between President Musharraf and President Karzai because there were a lot of tensions.

And also perhaps serve as a kind of support to President Musharraf, military man to military man, about what it takes to really move toward democracy that President Musharraf in every conversation I’ve ever had with him has given lip-service to. But I don’t think the Bush Administration has frankly asked enough of President Musharraf, has provided the right kind of assistance, has given the support needed.

We have this difficult problem in the military. We have a lot of the senior leadership that we have relationships with, we don’t have those relationships for a lot of reasons with the junior leadership. I just think we have given a blank check under President Bush to President Musharraf and the results are frankly not in the interests of the United States, they are not in the interest of Pakistan and they are certainly not in the interest of the region. We should begin to try to have an ongoing process that includes India and Afghanistan. A lot of what you see happening in Pakistan is driven by the very strong concern coming out of the Pakistani government toward Afghanistan, toward India.

We have really had a hands-off approach. We have said, okay, fine, you be our partner in going after Al Qaeda, we’ll turn a blind eye to everything else. That has undermined our position. I believe Pakistan is in a weaker position to combat terrorism today then they were after 9/11, in large measure because of the failed policies of George Bush. '

Barack Obama objected to Clinton's call for a UNO special inquiry, saying that "It is important to us to not give the idea that Pakistan is unable to handle its own affairs." While Obama's concern for Pakistani sovereignty is admirable, Clinton's suggestion of a United Nations commission would, I think, be quite popular in Pakistan except in military circles. So it isn't about national sovereignty. And it is certainly the case that the Pakistani public would be more likely to believe a UNO commission than it would to believe Pervez Musharraf on this issue.

John Edwards said much the same things as Clinton with less detail. But lets face it, she had actually been to Pakistan and her remarks show that having been First Lady really does count for foreign policy experience, since it allowed her to address this crisis with aplomb and perspicuity. Obama's campaign came off looking tacky when it tried to suggest that Clinton's Iraq vote somehow got Benazir killed.
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Benazir Bhutto Buried; Riots, Rallies Continue in Pakistan on Friday; Imran Khan: Musharraf Must Resign

Benazir Bhutto was buried in her ancestral village near Larkana in Sindh Province on Friday. Her widower, Asif Ali Zardari and 19-year-old son Bilawal helped lower her coffin into the grave. The Pakistani government predictably blamed the assassination on "al-Qaeda," but Hillary Clinton and other US politicians rightly called for an independent United Nations commission to look into the crime, since the credibility of the military dictatorship right now is, let us say, low.

Opposition politician Imran Khan on Friday called for Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf to step down. He said while on a visit to India, "You cannot win the war on terror if you lose the battle to gain people's hearts and minds . . . Musharraf is a problem, not our solution." He also implied that the Bush administration had been in error to associate itself so publicly with Ms. Bhutto's return to Pakistan, suggesting that that link made it more likely she would be killed by extremists.

Sindh Province remained largely closed down on Friday, as violent protests continued, with buildings set ablaze and sniping. The Pakistan army began deploying troops to show the flag, but they appear not to have risked clashing with protesters and imposed no curfew. There were a lot of attacks on government offices and government officials, apparently because Pakistan People's Party activists believe that the government of Pervez Musharraf was in some way responsible for Ms. Bhutto's death. The News details the violence:

"The charged workers and activists of the PPP continued protesting on the streets of Hyderabad on Friday since morning, setting scores of vehicles on fire and damaging public and private properties in the city. Angry protesters have blocked the Indus and the National Highways while the rail link was also affected because of firing and arson incidents in Hyderabad and adjoining areas. Firing incidents were also reported from various areas and at some places law-enforcement agencies scuffled with protesters to restrict their movement. The protesters set tyres on fire on various streets and also attacked the offices of union council Nazims in UC-16, UC-17 of Latifabad, UC Hatri, UC Seri, and UC Tando Fazal and torched some of the belongings of these offices. In Hyderabad city alone, the protesters ransacked the office of executive district officer for education, post master general office at Thandi Sarak, police check-posts and office of Sui Southern Gas Company. They also set on fire vehicles of the SSGC and also took out three vehicles parked at the residence of PML candidate Shahabuddin Husseini and set on fire five vehicles of the Hyderabad Electric Supply Company (Hesco) at Site area besides damaging other public and private properties. Reports said the protesters also attacked Tando Alam oil field in Hyderabad rural Taluka and set 15 vehicles and tankers on fire parked near its offices. Several shops were also set on fire in the district. "

Many residents of the major port city of Karachi remain stranded, without public transportation. Gas stations throughout Pakistan appear to have been closed, stranding motorists. Other Karachi residents lack essential supplies, as shops suddenly closed and have remained shuttered. Karachi industries (it is a major industrial city) have mostly ceased production, since workers have no way to get to the factories. Domestic flights from Karachi International Airport were cancelled, while international flights faced delays or cancellations, as well. The railway system in Sindh Province has been largely put out of commission by sabotage of cars, engines and rails, and won't be repaired for 20 days or so. Pakistani army troops deployed in several districts of Karachi, with orders to shoot to kill if they saw rioters or looters.

Quetta and Baluchistan were mostly closed for business on Friday, after the All Parties Democratic Movement called a sympathy strike in commemoration of Benazir Bhutto's assassination. The News writes,

"Sources said some infuriated mob damaged three banks and set ablaze town council offices of Tehsil Sohbutpur in the Jafarabad district after hearing the news of assassination. The protesters came out of the houses and staged demonstrations. Independent sources from Jafarabad said the protesters also torched official property and vehicles. Many vehicles were damaged on the National Highway, which remained blocked throughout the day. The protesters created hurdles on highways and set tyres ablaze. They pelted stones on vehicles and also resorted to aerial firing. Quetta was presenting a deserted look as soon as the news of the tragic incident spread here and the citizens mourned the death of Benazir Bhutto."

The Times of London reports that 4,000 Benazir supporters rallied in the northern Pushtun city of Peshawar, while in the southern Punjabi city of Multan, "about 7,000 people ransacked seven banks and a gas station and threw stones at police, who responded with tear gas."

To get a sense of the place names mentioned above, see this map.

With regard to Benazir's funeral, there was a strong sense of Sindhi nationalism in the air according to several press reports, with Sindhis complaining that only Sindhi prime ministers are assassinated, and some blaming other Pakistani ethnic groups for her death. Sindhis account for about 13% of the Pakistani population and predominate in the southeast of the country, but are probably the poorest ethnic group. They also have little representation in the powerful Pakistani army or officer corps. G. M. Syed led a Sindhi separatist movement until his death in 1995. The major city of Sindh, Karachi, is economically and demographically dominated by Muhajirs or Urdu-speakers whose forebears immigrated from India during the 1947 Partition. Pakistan's other major provinces are also dominated by a majority ethnicity. Thus, Baluchistan is mostly Baluch, the Northwest Frontier Province is mostly Pushtun, Punjab is mostly Punjabi, and Azad Kashmir is Kashmiri. Pakistan lost its Bengali east wing when Bangladesh became independent in 1971. (Those who think Iraq would be more stable with four or five ethnically-based provinces should look at Pakistan carefully.)

Barnett Rubin weighs in on the significance of Bhutto's assassination and the role of Muslim extremists at our joint Global Affairs blog and the WSJ.
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Mobs Rampage through Pakistani Cities; Cars, Banks, Gas Stations Torched Sharif's Party will Boycott Elections

My column, "With Bhutto gone, does Bush have a Plan B?" is online at Salon.com. Excerpt:

' Pakistan's future is now murky, and to the extent that this nation of 160 million buttresses the eastern flank of American security in the greater Middle East, its fate is profoundly intertwined with America's own. The money for the Sept. 11 attacks was wired to Florida from banks in Pakistan, and al-Qaida used the country for transit to Afghanistan. Instability in Pakistan may well spill over into Afghanistan, as well, endangering the some 26,000 U.S. troops and a similar number of NATO troops in that country. And it is not as if Afghanistan were stable to begin with. If Pakistani politics finds its footing, if a successor to Benazir Bhutto is elected in short order by the PPP and the party can remain united, and if elections are held soon, the crisis could pass. If there is substantial and ongoing turmoil, however, Muslim radicals will certainly take advantage of it.

In order to get through this crisis, Bush must insist that the Pakistani Supreme Court, summarily dismissed and placed under house arrest by Musharraf, be reinstated. The PPP must be allowed to elect a successor to Ms. Bhutto without the interference of the military. Early elections must be held, and the country must return to civilian rule. Pakistan's population is, contrary to the impression of many pundits in the United States, mostly moderate and uninterested in the Taliban form of Islam. But if the United States and "democracy" become associated in their minds with military dictatorship, arbitrary dismissal of judges, and political instability, they may turn to other kinds of politics, far less favorable to the United States. Musharraf may hope that the Pakistani military will stand with him even if the vast majority of people turn against him. It is a forlorn hope, and a dangerous one, as the shah of Iran discovered in 1978-79. '

I am appalled by the rightwing US pundits who are taking advantage of Bhutto's assassination to blame "the people of Pakistan" for "extremism." Benazir's party would have won at least a plurality in parliament. The PPP is a moderate, middle class party, and it has done well in unrigged elections during the past 20 years. She was killed by an extremist of some sort. The Muslim fundamentalist parties usually only get 3 percent of the vote in national elections, and they got 11.3 percent of the popular vote in 2002 only because Musharraf interfered with the PPP and Muslim League campaigns.

Former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, a lifelong rival of Benazir Bhutto, claimed that he, too, had been targeted for assassination on Thursday, but had escaped it. He said his party would boycott the January 8 elections called by President Pervez Musharraf, to protest Bhutto's death, and he called on other parties to boycott, as well. Sharif intimated that the Pakistani military was behind Ms. Bhutto's assassination.

In what may be a preview of civil unrest, A gun battle broke out between two factions of the Muslim League, leaving 4 persons dead. The Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) group resisted encroachment from the Pakistan Muslim League (Qa'id-i A'zam). The PML-N is loyal to Nawaz Sharif, while PML (Q) is very close to Pervez Musharraf. Four Nawaz supporters were killed in the clash.

David Rohde of the NYT, who has been doing excellent reporting from Pakistan, wonders if President Pervez Musharraf can survive the crisis provoked by the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Rohde recently reported on a nation-wide poll in Pakistan that showed that 67% of Pakistanis wanted Musharraf to resign, and 70% did not believe his government deserved reelection.

Likely the PPP will now select another leader. It has declared a 40-day mourning period and my guess is that elections therefore cannot be held until early February. The best chance for everyone getting out of this mess with hide intact is for the the PPP and the Muslim League to contest February elections and for a strong parliament to emerge with genuine grassroots support. If that does not happen, I am afraid of what might. This is a nuclear power we are talking about, in the middle of a very dangerous neighborhood.

The seriousness of the situation in the streets of some of Pakistan's important towns and cities doesn't seem to me to be being reported in the US press and media. In contrast, Pakistani newspapers are giving chilling details of large urban centers turned into ghost towns on Friday morning, with no transport available, hundreds of thousands of persons stranded far from home, shops closed, and banks, gas stations, police stations and automobiles torched. Karachi, Hyderabad, Larkana, Sukkur, Jacobabad and many others in Sindh Province fell victim to the violence (Bhutto was from Larkana in Sindh but had a residence in Karachi). The police seemed to be AWOL for the most part in these cities, allowing the rioting and looting to go on unhindered.

Here is a tally of violence in the major port city of Karachi (population 11 million inside city limits) overnight, resulting from riots to protest the killing of Benazir Bhutto:

Number of vehicles burned: 150
Number of streets where tires were set afire: 26
Number of banks set on fire: 16
Number of gas stations torched: 13
Number of persons shot dead: 10
Number of persons injured: 68
Number of PIA flights coming in: 0
Number of shops and businesses closed: Most

The News adds:

' [Karachi:] one of the posh areas of the city Zamzama was ransacked by unidentified people who looted showrooms, shops and boutiques. Within minutes of the breaking of the news of the death of PPP chairperson, enraged crowds went on the rampage, indiscriminately burning cars, motorcycles, fire tenders and banks, plunging the whole city into a state of lawlessness and anarchy that was seldom seen before . . .

The uncontrolled protestors put the Gulistan-e-Jauhar Police Station on fire. Four Chinese engineers got stranded in Gulshan-e-Iqbal area and sought refuge at the Gulshan-e-Iqbal Police Station. They were later safely evacuated from there.

Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of employees of various companies, corporate houses and shops were stranded when public transport disappeared from the city’s main arteries. These people were seen walking on roads for hours to reach their homes. On the other hand, thousands of employees were forced to stay back at their offices or took refuge with their friends and relatives. . . '

Throughout the towns and cities of Sindh Province, violence paralyzed urban life and most often transport workers went home, stranding people in mosques and offices. The News reports:

' The office of District Nazim was attacked and some branches of commercial banks and multinational restaurants and hotels were also burnt during the ongoing violence.

The road and train link of Hyderabad with other parts of the province and country was also badly affected after a train was set ablaze. However, no injury was reported.

A large number of people had been stranded in mosques and offices because of non-availability of transport.

Some offices of the electric supply company were also torched and police stations were also attacked while minor scuffles between police and the protesters were also reported.

Our Sukkur correspondent adds: Violence erupted throughout interior Sindh, including Sukkur, Larkana, Rohri, Salehpat, Pano Akil, Ghotki, Daharki, Ubauro, Shikarpur, Khairpur, Jacobabad, Kandhkot, Thull, Tangwani and other cities and towns, on Thursday night following the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.

In Sukkur, enraged mob set ablaze the Taluka council office, State Life Building, fruit and vegetable market, besides burning tyres on various streets.

In Rohri, the protesting youth attacked the residence of District Nazim Sukkur Syed Nasir Hussain Shah and damaged the house.

In Larkana, four banks, including a private and nationalised bank, were set ablaze and the bank employees were locked inside the bank, but no casualty was reported. The unruly mob also caused damage to government offices and vehicles, while all the main bazaars remained closed.

In Pano Akil, the railway station and the Nadra office were set ablaze, while the unruly people were burning tyres at various places.

In Khairpur, two persons lost their lives in an exchange of fire between police and agitators.

Similar protests were being carried out in other cities and towns of interior Sindh including, Ghotki, Daharki, Ubauro, Shikarpur, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Kandhkot, Thull, etc, where enraged people attacked many government offices and caused damage. The protesters also blocked railway tracks at different places.

Despite large-scale incidents of violence, no police personnel was seen in the cities, while most of the cities and towns plunged into darkness due to unannounced load shedding by Hesco.

Our Thatta correspondent adds: The entire Thatta district was completely closed as soon as the news about the assassination of Benazir Bhutto spread over here.

All shops, business centres, pan cabins and petrol pumps were closed. All the election camps were also closed and streetlights switched off. Scores of people came out on roads and mourned the incident aggressively. They continued to weep and beat their heads and chests. '

In Punjab province, Rawalpindi suffered the most violence from all accounts: "Murree road, the main artery in Rawalpindi suffered the major wrath of the angry mob and PPP activists who burnt tyres, damaged public and private properties, and burnt vehicles."

Folks, I've seen civil wars and riots first hand, and revolutions from not too far away, and this situation looks pretty bad to me.
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Pakistan's 2007 Crises Come to a Crescendo; Benazir Assassinated Implications for US Security

Benazir Bhutto, the leader of the Pakistan People's Party, has been assassinated at a rally held Thursday evening near Islamabad. She appears to have been shot by the assassin, who was wearing a suicide bomb belt, which he then detonated to make sure he had finished the job. The Bhuttos are sort of the Kennedys of Pakistan, marked by wealth, power and tragedy, and central to the country's politics for the past four decades.

The Pakistani authorities are blaming Muslim militants for the assassination. That is possible, but everyone in Pakistan remembers that it was the military intelligence, or Inter-Services Intelligence, that promoted Muslim militancy in the two decades before September 11 as a wedge against India in Afghanistan and Kashmir. The Pakistan People's Party (PPP) faithful will almost certainly blame Pervez Musharraf, and sentiment here is more important than reality, whatever the reality may be. The PPP is one of two very large, long-standing grassroots political parties in Pakistan, and if its followers are radicalized by this event, it could lead to severe turmoil. Just a day before her assassination Benazir had pledged that the PPP would not allow the military to rig the upcoming January 8 parliamentary elections.

Pakistan is important to US security. It is a nuclear power. Its military fostered, then partially turned on the Taliban and al-Qaeda, which have bases in the lawless tribal areas of the northern part of the country. And Pakistan is key to the future of its neighbor, Afghanistan. Pakistan is also a key transit route for any energy pipelines built between Iran or Central Asia and India, and so central to the energy security of the United States.

The military government of Pervez Musharraf was shaken by two big crises in 2007, one urban and one rural. The urban crisis was his interference in the rule of law and his dismissal of the supreme court chief justice. The Pakistani middle class has greatly expanded in the last seven years, as others have noted, and educated white collar people need a rule of law to conduct their business. Last June 50,000 protesters came out to defend the supreme court, even though the military had banned rallies. The rural crisis was the attempt of a Neo-Deobandi cult made up of Pushtuns and Baluch from the north to establish themselves in the heart of the capital, Islamabad, at the Red Mosque seminary. They then attempted to impose rural, puritan values on the cosmopolitan city dwellers. When they kidnapped Chinese acupuncturists, accusing them of prostitution, they went too far. Pakistan depends deeply on its alliance with China, and the Islamabad middle classes despise Talibanism. Musharraf ham-fistedly had the military mount a frontal assault on the Red Mosque and its seminary, leaving many dead and his legitimacy in shreds. Most Pakistanis did not rally in favor of the Neo-Deobandi cultists, but to see a military invasion of a mosque was not pleasant (the militants inside turned out to be heavily armed and quite sinister).

The NYT reported that US Secretary of State Condi Rice tried to fix Musharraf's subsequent dwindling legitimacy by arranging for Benazir to return to Pakistan to run for prime minister, with Musharraf agreeing to resign from the military and become a civilian president. When the supreme court seemed likely to interfere with his remaining president, he arrested the justices, dismissed them, and replaced them with more pliant jurists. This move threatened to scuttle the Rice Plan, since Benazir now faced the prospect of serving a dictator as his grand vizier, rather than being a proper prime minister.

With Benazir's assassination, the Rice Plan is in tatters and Bush administration policy toward Pakistan and Afghanistan is tottering.

Benazir is from a major Pakistani political dynasty. (See the obituary here and the photographs here. Her father, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, was prime minister in the 1970s but was overthrown by a military coup in 1977 and subsequently hanged by military dictator Zia ul-Huq. Benazir helped lead the Movement for the Restoration of Democracy in the 1980s, and was often under house arrest. When Zia died in an airplane accident in 1988, Benazir won the subsequent elections and served as prime minister 1988-1990. Zia had put in place mechanisms to limit popular sovereignty, and the then 'president' removed Benazir from office in 1990. She served again as PM, 1993-1996 but was again deposed, being accused of corruption. After the 1999 military coup of Pervez Musharraf, she was in a state of permanent exile, since he said he would have her arrested if she tried to come back. He relented because of his own collapsing position and because of US pressure, and allowed her to return in October. She was almost assassinated at that time by a huge bomb when she landed in Karachi.

See also the comments of Manan Ahmad at our Global Affairs blog, where there are several recent important entries.
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2 US Troops Killed, 3 wounded; Turkey Bombs KRG again; Iraqi Cabinet Proposes Amnesty

The banner under all CNN stories on Iraq on Wednesday in the US was "Progress in Iraq 2008," with the 'reduction in violence' the subtext. This is not news, it is propaganda. CNN can't know what 2008 in Iraq will be like, and this 'progress' banner gives a positive impression of what is still a dreadful situation. I mean, really, this is a Fox Cable News sort of tactic. And, they did not even report most of the actual news in Iraq (see below).

Turkey bombed Iraqi Kurdistan again on Wednesday. This time the guerrillas of the Kurdish Workers Party [PKK] had already fled farther from the border (perhaps they were tipped off that the attack was coming). So the Turkish bombs fell on empty villages. The US embassy in Baghdad expressed support for the air strikes on the PKK, but warned that it would object to civilian deaths or a destabilization of northern Iraq. Uh, I'm afraid when you have a NATO ally bombing a country you militarily occupy to kill members of a terror group supported by your local allies who have been killing soldiers of the NATO ally-- you already have destabilization. And, if the Turkish military really has killed 150 Kurds on the Iraqi side of the border since Dec. 16, it certainly has killed civilians.

The BBC reports that the Iraqi cabinet reported out to parliament a bill calling for the release of large numbers of detainees in US and Iraqi prisons in that country. The US holds about 26,000 prisoners, and Iraq holds about 24,000, for a total of 50,000 (some sources report a higher number), or about 0.2% of Iraq's entire population. The real reason for the cabinet's having passed this law in my view is that the Sunni Arab "National Accord Front" has made it a precondition for rejoining the largely Shiite government of PM Nuri al-Maliki. One question is whether parliament will pass it. Al-Maliki is now a minority prime minister, and I'm not sure the Kurdish and Shiite members of parliament will be willing to let thse mostly Sunni Arab prisoners go . . .

The Kurdistan Regional Authority's parliament agreed Wednesday to postpone the referendum on Kirkuk for 6 months. The Iraqi constitution called for Kirkuk Province to hold a referendum by December, 2007, on whether Kirkuk should become part of the Kurdistan Regional Authority (which has grouped and administratively replaced the former provinces of Irbil, Dohuk and Sulaymaniya). The Kurds have flooded Kirkuk with Kurdish residents, some but not all having lived there before Saddam Hussein expelled them. They would therefor likely win such a referendum. Holding it is opposed by the Turkmen and Arabs of Kirkuk, who do not wish to be ruled by the Kurdistan Regional Authority. Kicking this problem down the road for 6 months avoids a crisis now, but guarantees one whenever the measure goes through. I'd say the Democrats should hope that the referendum is not postponed for a year or more, since in that case the resulting crisis will likely break on their watch.

Sawt al-Iraq reports in Arabic htat Abd al-Jalil Khalaf, the police chief of Basra, told the al-Arabiya satellite news channel on Wednesday that a shadowy group calling itself "Commanding the Good and Forbidding what is Prohibited" has recently killed 50 women in the southern port. It is probably a puritanical Shiite group, and it says it objects to make-up (tabarruj or the wanton display of oneself in public). The women killed have been for the most part Muslims (both Sunni and Shiite), though two were Christians.

DPA reports in Arabic that Syrian border authorities found and confiscated Israeli-made listening devices that appeared to be on their way to Iraq.

Tina Susman at the LAT reports on how the US military is 'weaning' local Iraqi officials off US help and insisting that they apply for it to the central government in Baghdad. As historian of African decolonization Fred Cooper has pointed out, this 'weaning' process is actually just decolonization, of the same sort the French had to do in Senegal or the British in Uganda, back in the late 1950s and the 1960s. My own suspicion is that the US officer corps knows that the US military is likely to draw down quite substantially over the next two years, and that such decolonization moves have become urgent.

Reuters reports political violence in Iraq on Wednesday:

NINEVEH PROVINCE - Two U.S. soldiers were killed and three others wounded in a gunbattle in Nineveh Province north of Baghdad, the U.S. military said.

BAGHDAD - Seven dead bodies were found in Baghdad over the past two days, police said.

NEAR BAQUBA - The decomposed bodies of 17 men were found dumped in a town near the restive city of Baquba, 65 km (40 miles) north of Baghdad, the Iraqi army said.

KANAN - Gunmen attacked an Iraqi army check point, killing three soldiers and wounding another seven in the small town of Kanan, east of Baquba, a security source said.

BAQUBA - Three members of a neighborhood patrol fighting with Iraqi forces and the U.S. military against al-Qaeda were killed and two were seriously wounded when a booby-trapped house exploded as they entered it in Baquba, police said.

MOSUL - Three children were killed and two wounded when a roadside bomb in a garbage dump exploded while they were playing nearby in the city of Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

LATIFIYA - Two bodies were found bound and shot in the town of Latifiya, 40 km (25 miles) south of Baghdad, police said.

BAIJI - Gunmen killed Ali al-Igaidi, a tribal leader, in a drive-by shooting in the town of Baiji, 180 km (110 miles) north of Baghdad, police and hospital sources said . . .

McClatchy adds:

Baghdad - Around 9 a.m., a roadside bomb targeted an American patrol at Bab Al-Muatham ( north Baghdad ) . No casualties recorded but some damage to one of the convoy’s vehicles . . .

Kirkuk - Wednesday afternoon, gunmen kidnapped Hamid A.Abdul Latif , a member of Democratic Party of Kurdistan in front of his house at Jalwla district . . .

Hannah Allam of McClatchy writes a perceptive survey of the censoring of the internet in the Middle East. Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States are the worst, whereas Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco and Jordan [I would add Turkey] at the moment have little official censorship. (The governments of all four countries allow parliamentary elections (though only Lebanon's are relatively un-fixed) and are opposed to the Muslim Brotherhood and similar such puritanical groups. I suspect that they leave the internet uncensored for the same reason they allow belly dancing to be shown on television-- a little bit of libertinism is seen as an antidote to too much puritanism. And, multiparty parliamentary elections promote a free internet, since the parties have an interest in it for campaign purposes). I predict that the countries that heavily censor the internet, such as Syria, will suffer for it economically and with regard to development. By the way, Informed Comment is proudly censored in several Middle Eastern countries.
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Top Ten Myths about Iraq 2007

10. Myth: The US public no longer sees Iraq as a central issue in the 2008 presidential campaign.

In a recent ABC News/ Washington Post poll, Iraq and the economy were virtually tied among voters nationally, with nearly a quarter of voters in each case saying it was their number one issue. The economy had become more important to them than in previous months (in November only 14% said it was their most pressing concern), but Iraq still rivals it as an issue!

9. Myth: There have been steps toward religious and political reconciliation in Iraq in 2007. Fact: The government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has for the moment lost the support of the Sunni Arabs in parliament. The Sunnis in his cabinet have resigned. Even some Shiite parties have abandoned the government. Sunni Arabs, who are aware that under his government Sunnis have largely been ethnically cleansed from Baghdad, see al-Maliki as a sectarian politician uninterested in the welfare of Sunnis.

8. Myth: The US troop surge stopped the civil war that had been raging between Sunni Arabs and Shiites in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad.

Fact: The civil war in Baghdad escalated during the US troop escalation. Between January, 2007, and July, 2007, Baghdad went from 65% Shiite to 75% Shiite. UN polling among Iraqi refugees in Syria suggests that 78% are from Baghdad and that nearly a million refugees relocated to Syria from Iraq in 2007 alone. This data suggests that over 700,000 residents of Baghdad have fled this city of 6 million during the US 'surge,' or more than 10 percent of the capital's population. Among the primary effects of the 'surge' has been to turn Baghdad into an overwhelmingly Shiite city and to displace hundreds of thousands of Iraqis from the capital.

7. Myth: Iran was supplying explosively formed projectiles (a deadly form of roadside bomb) to Salafi Jihadi (radical Sunni) guerrilla groups in Iraq. Fact: Iran has not been proved to have sent weapons to any Iraqi guerrillas at all. It certainly would not send weapons to those who have a raging hostility toward Shiites. (Iran may have supplied war materiel to its client, the Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq (ISCI), which was then sold off from warehouses because of graft, going on the arms market and being bought by guerrillas and militiamen.

6. Myth: The US overthrow of the Baath regime and military occupation of Iraq has helped liberate Iraqi women. Fact: Iraqi women have suffered significant reversals of status, ability to circulate freely, and economic situation under the Bush administration.

5. Myth: Some progress has been made by the Iraqi government in meeting the "benchmarks" worked out with the Bush administration. Fact: in the words of Democratic Senator Carl Levin, "Those legislative benchmarks include approving a hydrocarbon law, approving a debaathification law, completing the work of a constitutional review committee, and holding provincial elections. Those commitments, made 1 1/2 years ago, which were to have been completed by January of 2007, have not yet been kept by the Iraqi political leaders despite the breathing space the surge has provided."

4. Myth: The Sunni Arab "Awakening Councils," who are on the US payroll, are reconciling with the Shiite government of PM Nuri al-Maliki even as they take on al-Qaeda remnants. Fact: In interviews with the Western press, Awakening Council tribesmen often speak of attacking the Shiites after they have polished off al-Qaeda. A major pollster working in Iraq observed,

' Most of the recent survey results he has seen about political reconciliation, Warshaw said, are "more about [Iraqis] reconciling with the United States within their own particular territory, like in Anbar. . . . But it doesn't say anything about how Sunni groups feel about Shiite groups in Baghdad." Warshaw added: "In Iraq, I just don't hear statements that come from any of the Sunni, Shiite or Kurdish groups that say 'We recognize that we need to share power with the others, that we can't truly dominate.' " ' '

The polling shows that "the Iraqi government has still made no significant progress toward its fundamental goal of national reconciliation."

3. Myth: The Iraqi north is relatively quiet and a site of economic growth. Fact: The subterranean battle among Kurds, Turkmen and Arabs for control of the oil-rich Kirkuk province makes the Iraqi north a political mine field. Kurdistan now also hosts the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) guerrillas that sneak over the border and kill Turkish troops. The north is so unstable that the Iraqi north is now undergoing regular bombing raids from Turkey.

2. Myth: Iraq has been "calm" in fall of 2007 and the Iraqi public, despite some grumbling, is not eager for the US to depart. Fact: in the past 6 weeks, there have been an average of 600 attacks a month, or 20 a day, which has held steady since the beginning of November. About 600 civilians are being killed in direct political violence per month, but that number excludes deaths of soldiers and police. Across the board, Iraqis believe that their conflicts are mainly caused by the US military presence and they are eager for it to end.

1. Myth: The reduction in violence in Iraq is mostly because of the escalation in the number of US troops, or "surge."

Fact: Although violence has been reduced in Iraq, much of the reduction did not take place because of US troop activity. Guerrilla attacks in al-Anbar Province were reduced from 400 a week to 100 a week between July, 2006 and July, 2007. But there was no significant US troop escalation in al-Anbar. Likewise, attacks on British troops in Basra have declined precipitously since they were moved out to the airport away from population centers. But this change had nothing to do with US troops.

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Two Bombings Kill 36 in N. Iraq Iraq Threatens S. Korea on Oil Exports

Guerrillas in the oil refinery town of Bayji killed at least 26 persons and wounded 80 others with a suicide truck bombing. In Diyala province to the southeast, a suicide bomber killed 10 persons and wounded 5 others in the provincial capital of Baqubah. A day earlier in Diyala Province, gunment kidnapped 14 Shiites from a bus. (Scroll down).

In Hilla on Monday, some 2,000 persons held a rally to protest the appointment of Major General Fadhil Raddad as provincial police chief. His predecessor, Maj. Gen. Qais al-Ma'muri, was blown up on Dec. 9. Al-Ma'umuri had gotten along well with the Sadr Movement and the Mahdi Army. But critics charge that Raddad is a member of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, and obviously fear that he will be less even-handed in dealing with the Mahdi Army. This conflict over the police chief is another manifestation of the competition between ISCI and the Sadrists-- a competition which could eventually generate violence.

The Iraqi government is threatening To stop crude oil sales to South Korea, where they account for 5 percent of petroleum imports. The Baghdad government is angry that a Korean firm is in talks with the Kurdistan Regional Government, exploring a bid to do exploration and development in Iraqi Kurdistan without securing permission first from the Federal government.

Conn Hallinan takes issue with the triumphal narrative of the 'success of the surge' in the US press, suggesting that the US isn't that powerful there and still has to deal with warlords with shifting allegiances, and that the Sunni-Shiite civil war is in a lull rather than being over with. The article appeared in Foreign Policy in Focus.

Other political violence on Tuesday, according to Reuters:

' MOSUL - The governor of Nineveh Province, Duraid Kashmula, escaped unharmed from a roadside bomb attack near his convoy in the provincial capital Mosul . . . north of Baghdad, Kashmula told Reuters. His driver and one of his guards were wounded in the attack.

BAQUBA - Militants blew up a police station, killing two policemen in Baquba, 65 km (40 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - U.S. forces killed a total of 13 militants and detained 27 others on Monday and Tuesday during operations targeting al-Qaeda in central and northern Iraq, the U.S. military said.

DHULUIYA - Police recovered a body with gunshot wounds from the Tigris river on Monday in Dhuluiya, 70 km (45 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

DHULUIYA - Gunmen kidnapped a man driving a car in eastern Dhuluiya, on Monday, police said. '

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Christmas in Iraq

There was no midnight mass among Christians in Iraq again this year. Too dangerous.

And of the estimated 800,000 Christians in the country in 2002, as few as half, 400,000, may be left. Many have fled to Syria, joining the 1.5 million Iraqi refugees there.

Even some Christians still in the country have been internally displaced.

None of the feel good human interest programs I saw on cable news this weekend focused on the displacement of indigenoous Christians.

If it is not on TV it doesn't exist.
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Barzani Slams Turks

Iraqi Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani on Monday lashed out at Turkey for its air strikes on Iraq. Turkey says it hit terror bases.

Bush strongly backed Turkey with a call to PM Erdogan.

The US had depended heavily on the Kurds in Iraq. Is this the beginniing of a major rift?

Turkey says that its Dec. 16 air strikes, involving 50 jets, killed 150 PKK guerrillas. This is a larger death toll than earlier suspected and won't improve Barzani's mood.
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Turkey Bombs again; Demo Planned against new Babil Governor

Turkey bombed northern Iraq again on Sunday, in an apparent attack on suspected bases of the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) guerrilla group. Early reports were that no one was killed.

US officials in Baghdad are convinced that some of the reduction in the number of attacks on US troops is owing to conscious Iranian decisions not to back the Shiite militiamen who had targeted Americans. If this is true, it is a refutation of the Cheney gang's insistence that the Iranians can only be dealt with by force and enmity.

Asharq al-Awsat reports in Arabic that the Sadr Movement is planning a big rally on Monday against the appointment of Fadil Raddam as the new provincial police chief for Babil. They maintain that Raddam was the head of the Baath secret police in Najaf in the later Saddam years. Another source says that the tribal leaders are planning a big demonstration for Monday.

The death of the jihadi guerrilla movement in Iraq against the US has been much exaggerated, according to Aljazeera.

McClatchy reports political violence on Sunday:

Baghdad

- Around 6:30 a.m. a roadside bomb targeted civilians in Zafaraniyah, killing two civilians including one woman and injuring two civilians.

- Around 11 a.m. a roadside bomb targeted a joint U.S. and Iraqi convoy in Al Ghazaliyah, no casualties were reported.

- Police found three bodies in Baghdad, one in Sadr, in Doura and Amil.

Diyala

- Gunmen attacked Iraqi army checkpoint in Saqr village near Al Khalis, five gunmen were killed and two soldiers were injured. . .

Kirkuk

- Gunmen attacked police patrol in Al Zarga town south of Kirkuk yesterday, two gunmen were killed and two police officers were injured.

- An IED targeted a house in central Kirkuk. The explosion caused damages to the targeted house. Police said the house belong to Ahmed Zeinal who works with U.S. forces.

Reuters adds:

MOSUL - Gunmen killed Nyyef al-Shimmari, an Iraqi army lieutenant-colonel, in a drive by-shooting in western Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

NEAR MOSUL - One civilian was killed and five policemen were wounded when a parked car bomb targeted a passing police patrol just south of Mosul, police said. . .

LATIFIYA - A roadside bomb killed one civilian and wounded two others in the small town of Latifiya, 40 km (25 miles) south of Baghdad, police said.

MAHMUDIYA - One body was found with gunshot wounds in the town of Mahmudiya, 30 km (20 miles) south of Baghdad, police said. . .

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Zogby: Huckabee, Obama Surge

Zogby has just released a national new poll that shows that the proportion of voters who are undecided on both sides of the aisle has fallen dramatically. The chief beneficiaries of the voters making up their minds have been Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee.

From there, the story differs dramatically in the two parties, however. As Republican voters have made up their minds, they have suddenly during the last month abandoned Rudy Giuliani in droves, so that he has fallen from 29% to 23%. At the same time, Huckabee's stock has risen meteorically. Romney's numbers seem to fluctuate pretty dramatically from month to month, suggesting that the voters have not yet made up their minds about him, but he had a good month, as well. We may conclude that Republicans are not satisfied with Giuliani as frontrunner, and he is faltering very substantially. They are frantically casting around for someone else, benefitting Huckabee dramatically and to a lesser extent Romney. But given the margin of error, Romney still has not broken out of the pack, being trailed by only three points by John McCain and Fred Thompson. McCain's numbers have firmed up a little, but not dramatically, and given his initial advantages and his money, his performance can only be called disappointing. Thompson is on a clear downward trajectory and may as well go home.

On the Democratic side, only Obama's numbers have shown consistent and significant improvement. It is becoming a two-person race. Although Edwards's numbers have improved a little this fall, he is stuck in the low teens.

Caveat: This poll is national and things would look different at the local level. And, note: I turned the Zogby numbers into charts so that they can be read more easily.

Zogby says:

"Support for former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has surged to 22% in a national 2008 Republican preference poll, bringing him within one point of front-runner Rudy Giuliani, who enjoys slim 23% lead among likely Republican primary and caucus voters, the latest Reuters/Zogby telephone survey shows.

Huckabee's support stood at 11% in November, moving up from just 4% in October polling. Giuliani's support has fallen to 23% in this latest poll from the 29% support he enjoyed in November. Trailing behind Giuliani and Huckabee in third place is former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney at 16%, followed by former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson at 13%, Arizona Sen. John McCain at 12% and Ron Paul at 4%. . .

Republicans


[Note: Graph by Cole. . .]

New York Democrat Hillary Clinton's lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has slipped from 11 points in polling last month to 8 points in this latest survey. Clinton's support stands at 40%, up from 38% last month, while Obama's support is up to 32% from 27% last month. . . .

Democrats


[Note: Cole graph. . .]

Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is in third place among Democrats at 13% support, showing no change from polling last month. Joe Biden and Bill Richardson are tied at 3% support.

Voters on both sides of the political aisle are drawing conclusions in the nomination races, the poll shows. Undecided Republicans dropped from 21% in mid-November to just 9% in the latest Reuters/Zogby poll. Undecided Democrats comprised just 4% of the survey sample, down from 14% in the mid-November poll. "

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