McClatchy: Edwards, Romney Lead in Iowa
McClatchy has a new Iowa poll out, taken Dec. 26-28. It shows that there was no spike among Iowa voters in concern for international affairs or terrorism in the wake of the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan.
The poll shows that Mitt Romney has a significant lead, 27% to 23% for former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, whose momentum has slowed, and that Huckabee has lost ground even among evangelicals as the spotlight has been put on him.
This is a really small poll, of 400 Democrats and 400 Republicans, with a massive plus or minus margin of error, of 5%. So I don't think Edwards' one-point lead in this poll means much. But that the race is tight is obvious enough. And, it is likely that the finding of no increased concern about international affairs or terrorism is solid. If so, that does help Edwards. Also, the article argues that Edwards' numbers have shown an upward trend, and that he could benefit if the second-tier candidates don't reach 15%, since voters could then turn to someone else, and he is the second choice for a lot of, e.g., Richardson supporters.
posted by Juan Cole @ 12/30/2007 07:28:00 AM
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4 Comments:
If the margin of error is 5% then aren't Huckabee (23) and Romney (27) essentially tied? Not that either would make a good president, Huckabee was obviously in over his head as governor of Arkansas and Romney's a panderer not a leader.
Not to mention that Romney is Damien and Huckabee is just nuts! I love Huckabee's idea of returning America to it's lost glory as the Christian Nation it NEVER WAS!
Such is tradition. Most of what we call traditional these days doesn't go back further than 50 years, I think.
Or maybe 70. For example, where I live, you'd be considered a crazy radical if you didn't have green bean cassarole on holidays. You'd think green bean cassarole was ordained by God, but I'll bet Camble's soup popularized it.
So how long have we been a Christian Nation? Well, never, but it's a Great Tradition nonetheless.
On another subject, I'd like to comment on the reliability of the numbers coming out of Iraq. This article:
http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=49&ItemID=14607
... on ZNet, by David Markand, discusses a battle that ocurred in Afganistan just about two weeks ago. Apparently, the publicized numbers regarding Taliban casualties and civilian casualties produced by that battle have absolutely nothing to do with reality, not that there's ANY reliable reportage to indicate what the actual reality might be. There's just plenty of indication that what we are being fed is BS.
And that's just one little battle in Afganistan. So I think we should be very careful before we take seriously any claims the US Military and Iraqi government are making about peace in Iraq.
Particularly telling, to me is the fact that apparently the LAST thing the locals in the region where the 'battle' ocurred want is to be handed over to the tender loving care of the police and militia - in other words, to (presumably) the very same sorts of folks who we claim have now brought peace to Iraq (on our payroll), by controlling and patrolling neighborhoods - the Afgans, it seems, would rather have the Taliban, Nato, the Afgan army, the Fantastic Four, ANYBODY!
The US must insist that the Israeli siege of Gaza must be lifted. A third of Palestinians killed by Israel this year were innocent civilians. The agricultural sector is being destroyed because farmers cannot export their goods owing to the Israeli blockade. Food, water, essential medicines are all being denied to civilian populations, including children. If Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is so worried about Israel being seen as an Apartheid state, he should release Gazans from their penitentiary and stop deploying collective punishment against civilians.
This is slow genocide. Making it impossible for the Palestinians to have an economy, i.e., literally the means for making their own living is murder by any other name. It is a Warsaw ghetto in Palestine.
I find it heartbreakingly ironic that Jewish people engage in this atrocity. It appears Jews approve of fascism and genocide so long as they are not the victims.
December 31, 2007
New Iowa Poll: Obama widens lead over Clinton
By THOMAS BEAUMONT
REGISTER STAFF WRITER
Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has widened his lead in Iowa over Hillary Clinton and John Edwards heading into Thursday's nominating caucuses, according to The Des Moines Register's final Iowa Poll before the 2008 nominating contests.
Obama's rise is the result in part of a dramatic influx of first-time caucusgoers, including a sizable bloc of political independents. Both groups prefer the Illinois senator in what has been a very competitive campaign.
Huckabee, Obama maintain leads
http://fpdownload.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=8,0,0,0" width="350" height="220" id="iowa_poll_350DEC" align="middle"> http://www.desmoinesregister.com/assets/swf/iowa_poll_350DEC.swf" />http://www.desmoinesregister.com/assets/swf/iowa_poll_350DEC.swf" quality="high" bgcolor="#ffffff" width="350" height="220" name="iowa_poll_350DEC" align="middle" allowScriptAccess="sameDomain" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" /> Obama was the choice of 32 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers, up from 28 percent in the Register's last poll in late November, while Clinton, a New York senator, held steady at 25 percent and Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, was virtually unchanged at 24 percent.
The poll reflects continued fluidity in the race even as the end of the yearlong campaign nears. Roughly a third of likely caucusgoers say they could be persuaded to choose someone else before Thursday evening. Six percent were undecided or uncommitted.
The poll also reveals a widening gap between the three-way contest for the lead and the remaining candidates. No other Democrat received support from more than 6 percent of likely caucusgoers.
The findings mark the largest lead of any of the Democratic candidates in the Register's poll all year, underscoring what has been a hard-fought battle among the three well-organized Iowa frontrunners.
It is also the only recent poll of Iowa caucusgoers showing Obama with a lead larger than the survey's margin of sampling error, which is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The telephone survey of 800 likely Democratic caucusgoers was taken Dec. 27-30.
In an indication of the Obama's appeal in Iowa, Democratic caucusgoers say they prefer change and unity over other leadership characteristics. Selecting a candidate who represents a sharp departure from the status quo is 56-year-old Lansing Democrat John Rethwisch's priority, and his main reason for backing Obama.
"I have been seeing more and more something Kennedy-esque coming from Obama," said Rethwisch, Lansing's water and sewer administrator. "But it's always a gamble when you get somebody in there who hasn't got a proven track record."
Thirty percent of the poll's respondents said a candidate's ability to bring about change is the most important, followed by 27 percent who said their priority is choosing a candidate who will be the most successful in unifying the country.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/assets/jpg/StrengthsIssues_Democrats.jpg" align="left">Asked which candidate would do the best on these themes, caucusgoers most commonly name Obama. The first-term U.S. senator has argued in the closing weeks of the campaign that his newness to Washington, D.C., would help him bridge a politically divided nation and improve its standing overseas.
Having the experience and competence to lead, which has been the crux of Clinton's closing argument, was seen as the most important to 18 percent of caucusgoers, with Clinton as the candidate most commonly rated best on this trait.
The candidates routinely argue they are the best able to win in November, although only 6 percent of the poll's respondents identified being best able to win the general election as the top priority.
Rethwisch is also part of the majority of caucusgoers who plan to attend their first caucus Thursday. Sixty percent would be attending for the first time, reflecting the emphasis the campaigns have put on expanding the pool of participants.
All of the three leaders in Iowa draw a majority of support from new caucusgoers, although Obama benefits the most with 72 percent of his support coming from first-timers compared to 58 percent of Clinton's and 55 percent of Edwards'supporters.
Longtime Democrat Darlene Inman, 72, is a first-time caucusgoer who supports Clinton. The Mason City retired homemaker represents the heart of Clinton's support base, older women who are registered Democrats.
"She talks straight about helping everybody. She tells it like it is," Inman said.
Inman said she first motivated to participate in the caucuses because of dissatisfaction with President Bush. But she said she hesitated to back Clinton until she settled on her as the most qualified, in part because of her association former President Clinton.
"I was kind of doubtful, but then I stopped and thought that when Bill Clinton was president, jobs were plentiful and the country was running well," Inman said. "With Bush in there, it's been very worrisome and I think she can get in there and turn it around."
Clinton has made an aggressive effort to court female, first-time caucusgoers, especially younger women and those who are retired. Women account for 58 percent of caucusgoers, according to the survey.
Clinton has rebounded among female caucusgoers in general, pulling even with Obama at 32 percent after losing her edge among this key group to him in the previous Register poll.
Clinton receives more support from women 55 years old and older than her rivals, and she and Obama draw evenly from the pool of female caucusgoers between 35 and 54 years old.
However, she trails Obama badly among women under 35, with just 15 percent to his 57 percent.
Obama's advantage among younger women reflects his decided advantage among younger voters in general. A majority of caucusgoers under 35 support Obama, more than three times the support Edwards receives from them and five times Clinton's.
Caucusgoers under the age of 35 represent 17 percent of likely attendees, higher than any Register poll this year but lower than any other age group.
Clinton led narrowly in the Register's October poll, but slipped in the survey taken in late November. During that period Obama and Edwards sharpened their criticism of Clinton, who has led in national polls of Democratic preference. Likewise, Clinton went on the attack in November, questioning Obama's experience and characterizing his health care proposal as less than comprehensive.
Clinton remains the favorite of the party faithful, with support from a third of self-described Democrats. However, Obama is the clear choice of caucusgoers who affiliate with neither the Democrat or Republican parties, with roughly 40 percent of them backing him in the survey.
The support from non-Democrats is significant because a whopping 40 percent of those planning to attend described themselves as independent and another 5 percent as Republican. Only registered Democrats can participate in the caucuses, although rules allow participants to change their party registration on their way in to the caucuses.
Edwards' support has changed little since the last poll, when he was the choice of 23 percent of likely caucusgoers. He led the Register's May poll with 29 percent.
He remained the choice of older men and drew evenly with Clinton from caucusgoers 55 and older.
One such Democrat, 84-year-old Ruth Paulsen of Milford, said Edwards' charisma and message of economic fairness appeals to her.
"I like the way he speaks, with energy and enthusiasm," said Paulsen. "The others are all right, but I like Edwards because he talks the most about change."
Despite aggressive campaigns in Iowa by Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, none has been able to break into the pack at the top. In fact, support for Biden and Richardson slipped somewhat in the new poll.
An analysis of likely caucusgoers' second choices showed that the results would change little if the votes for the lower-rated candidates were redistributed among the front-runners.
Reporter Thomas Beaumont can be reached at (515) 286-2532 or tbeaumont@dmreg.com.
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