Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Friday, November 30, 2007

Saudis Foil Plots by Radicals;
Parliament balks at Maliki Appointment;
Parliament Condemns Kurdish Oil Deals

The dangers for the region and the world of the continued radicalization of Arab youth via the US presence in Iraq were demonstrated this week when Saudi authorities broke up a plot to attack Saudi petroleum facilities. Given current high prices, any such attack would have the potential for driving them even higher, with deleterious effects on the US and world economies. Many of those involved in the plots were Saudis who had fought the US and Shiites in Iraq and then returned to the kingdom.

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki tried and failed to play 'divide and rule' with the Sunni Arabs in parliament on Thursday. The Sunni fundamentalist Iraqi Accord Front had been part of the al-Maliki 'national unity government' from spring 2006, but this summer that IAF withdrew from the al-Maliki government and its 6 cabinet ministers resigned. Al-Maliki just tried to appoint a cabinet minister nominated by the tribal Awakening Councils, who are also Sunnis and who have thrown in with the United States. His point was to show the Iraqi Accord Front, which has 44 members in parliament, that he could find other Sunnis to support him if they will not play ball. The IAF has made specific demands of al-Maliki, which he seems unwilling to entertain, and its leaders say they won't rejoin his government unless he yields on them.

Al-Maliki's attempt to do an end-run around parliamentary representatives was criticized by many members of parliament, who complained that the tribal Awakening Councils were not elected and do not represent anyone, whereas the Sunni parliamentarians were elected by the people.

As it turned out, al-Maliki's opponents in parliament prevented the appointment of two cabinet ministers to replaced those who had resigned (Shiite parties have also withdrawan). The members of parliament boycotted the session, depriving it of a quorum. Another issue was that al-Maliki had planned to have the two appointments approved by less than a 51% vote. (I am not sure that is even constitutional). The MPs were also protesting this procedural change.

The episode underlies the political gridlock in Iraq, which undermines any military success of the surge.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that MPs also condemned as unconstitutional the oil contracts signed by the Kurdistan Regional Government with foreign firms, ignoring the federal government. They demanded that the Kurds wait until a federal oil and gas law has been passed.

Hadi al-Amiri, a member of the United Iraqi Alliance, and head of the paramilitary Badr Organization, urged the formation of a parliamentary committee to look into whether the Kurds have acted unconstitutionally, and into whether a formula could be found to serve as the basis for a compromise.

The Shiite MPs maintained that article 39 of the Iraqi constitution rendered null and void all oil contracts signed before the passage of a new oil and gas law.

MP Rashid al-Ghazawi (Iraqi Accord Front) spoke of summoning the oil minister of the Kurdistan Regional Authority to explain on what legal basis the KRG signed these contracts.

Kurdish MPs defended the deals, but where the Arab MPs, both Sunni and Shiite, agree on something, they could always outvote the Kurds (who have altogether 58 seats in a 275-seat parliament if you count the Kurdish Muslim fundamentalists).

Parliamentarians also widely condemned Iraqi vice president Tariq al-Hashimi (from a Sunni Arab fundamentalist party) for rejecting a Japanese loan.

I can't find more on that issue but see Michael Penn at Japan Focus on the changing relationship of Japan and Iraq.

At our Global Affairs group blog, Manan Ahmed meditates on Pervez Musharraf's becoming a civilian president and the impact of the return to Pakistan of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, whom Musharraf overthrew in a military coup. The Saudis appear to have played a role in all this.

Farideh Farhi, at the same site, looks at the building tensions in Iran over the upcoming March parliamentary elections, between hard liners and conservatives. And Barnett Rubin posts on fighting drugs and working for peace in Afghanistan.

At the Napoleon's Egypt blog, newly posted letters from Bonaparte to Gen. Kleber and from Kleber to the French Directory. Bonaparte secretly slipped out of Egypt in August of 1799, leaving behind for Gen. Kleber in Alexandria a letter suddenly appointing him commander of the 25,000 or so remaining French troops in Egypt. Kleber was clearly outraged and complained bitterly about the surprise that Bonaparte had pulled on him.

Michael Schwartz at Tomdispatch.com on the real meaning of the surge and why Bush won't leave Iraq.

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Elbaradei: An Attack on Iran would Guarantee that it Gets Nukes

The USG Open Source Center translates an interview in an Argentinian newspaper with International Atomic Energy Agency head, Mohamed Elbaradei, on how to deal with the Iranian nuclear research program. He cautions that a direct military attack would almost guarantee that Iran develops an atomic bomb.


'Argentina: IAEA Head Warns Against Using Force Against Iran
"Exclusive" interview with Mohamed ElBaradei, International Atomic Energy Agency head, by Nestor Restivo in Buenos Aires on 28 November: To use force against Iran could lead it to having atomic weapons. First paragraph is Clarin's introduction. Passages within slantlines are published in boldface
Clarin (Internet Version-WWW)
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Document Type: OSC Translated Text

"I hope that what was done in Iraq will not be repeated. We have all learned a lesson and /I hope with all my strength that the situation in Iran will be resolved diplomatically."/ Egypt's Mohamed ElBaradei, who is now in Buenos Aires and gave an exclusive interview to Clarin yesterday afternoon, is at the center of a storm and is working against the clock. ElBaradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), is supervising the Iranian (nuclear development) plan, and he is also under pressure from the United States and its allies to harden his stance toward Tehran. Both the United States and Israel have sharply attacked the IAEA report on Iran.

(Nestor Restivo) /Washington was highly critical of you and of UN inspector Hans Blix when you both denied that Saddam Husayn had weapons of mass destruction. Then the United States invaded Iraq. Is this is a similar scenario?/

(Mohamed ElBaradei) In both cases it is our duty to work with objectivity. I hope that there is no parallel (between these two cases) and that we have all learned a lesson. Despite all of our differences, I do believe that everyone sees a single solution for Iran: diplomacy.

(Restivo) /But you know that the military option is on the table.../

(ElBaradei) That would not solve anything. On the contrary, it would delay the Iranian plan but in the end it would not produce a lasting solution and would generate more problems in a region that is already a huge mess, the Middle East. There is no 100 percent guarantee, but we also do not have data indicating to us that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons. But we do need an additional protocol about its new facilities.

(Restivo) /Is it helpful for the United States or Israel to be talking about a military option? Why would Iran allow more inspections if they (the facilities inspected) might eventually become military targets?/

(ElBaradei) Diplomacy has more to do with pressures, sanctions, and incentives for good behavior than with force. It used to be said that diplomacy was war waged by other means, but that ended with the UN Charter, which only allows war for self-defense, in the case of an imminent threat, or if the Security Council approves it. The use of force would put pressure on Iran to manufacture nuclear weapons, while right now it does not have large industrial facilities in operation. What Iran has is a nascent and small nuclear enrichment plan. But when a country is threatened it generally ends up with a military system.

(Clarin) ElBaradei, the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, a man who is highly respected in international diplomacy, arrived in Argentina yesterday. Here he met with President Nestor Kirchner and Foreign Minister Jorge Taiana and praised Argentina's nuclear development program. In the morning he also spoke with three of the media, including Clarin.

(Restivo) /Will there be more in-depth inspections in Iran?/

(ElBaradei) Yes, of course. Iran is a very complex case. For 20 years it developed a secret program and that made the IAEA's work very difficult, as we said in our report. I have insisted that they act with the utmost transparency and cooperation as there has been a loss of confidence in the nature of the program. And that is the key: the crisis of confidence. The most sensitive issue is uranium enrichment, for with enriched uranium it is possible to produce nuclear materials.

(Restivo) /Is Mahmud Ahmadinezhad's government on that course?/

(ElBaradei) We have not found that to be so, but we do not have a 100 percent guarantee. The fact that Iran is working actively on enrichment shows that they do have a program, but they do not have an urgent need as they still do not have a nuclear product. Of course the Iranians say that they should be self-sufficient and independent, that this is a scientific and civilian issue, a matter of technological development, and that this is for exports that could benefit them in the future. But if the IAEA cannot conduct inspections of Iran and prove that all of this is intended for peaceful uses, the crisis of confidence will continue. Nobody is questioning Iran's right. The problem is the timing (previous word in English) for exercising that right.

(Restivo) /What role is the Security Council playing in this? Neither China nor Russia will agree to new sanctions against Iran.../

(ElBaradei) The Security Council has asked Iran to suspend its enrichment program until confidence has been restored. And I have done the same. The more they cooperate and allow us access to documentation and other things, the more we will be able to rebuild confidence. We need what is known as the Additional Protocol, which would give us additional information and access to new sites. This is essential so that we can not only look at the past but also say that "we are now in a position to provide guarantees about the current projects." The Security Council should ask and apply pressure on Iran in order to get it to agree to negotiate and to make it realize that a permanent solution will only come through negotiations.

(Restivo) /Do you have confidence that this will happen?/

(ElBaradei) Yes, tomorrow negotiators from Iran and the European Union are meeting and I am optimistic. The nuclear issue has been a troublesome matter between the West and Iran for 50 years, since the fall of the elected government in Iran in 1953 until now. And not only the West and Iran should be involved in this dialogue, but other countries as well, countries like Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine. The sooner some agreement is reached, the sooner we will see prospects for an ideal solution.

(Restivo) /Some US officials like Dick Cheney and Condoleezza Rice have taken a very tough stance toward you. How do you handle those pressures?/

(ElBaradei) The IAEA's function and its reports are highly technical. But we are also a multinational agency. And diplomacy and multilateralism are two sides of the same coin, so in addition to technical matters I also make use of diplomacy, I try to convince, argue, apply pressure, and use persuasion. Of course, my diplomacy is limited to dialogue, as there is no army behind it. I am indeed the target of pressures, but as long as you know that you have your feet on the ground and are sure of what you are doing, pressures are like Teflon; they do not stick. Moreover, I have gotten used to this, as we have been criticized by Saddam, by Korea, and now by Israel. We deal with extremely sensitive issues and we have to be very careful that we are not pushed in any direction. Everyone listens to us with great attention. This does seem rather schizophrenic, doesn't it? Governments hire us, but at times we make a judgment about them and it is difficult for them to accept the fact that, even though they are paying us, we can still judge them.

(In another report in Spanish on 29 November La Nacion's Paz Rodriguez Niell and Lucas Colonna add: "ElBaradei and Kirchner reviewed the Argentine nuclear plan for peaceful uses and agreed that the tense situation in the international community about Iran's nuclear development, which right now is drawing the world's attention, should be resolved in a peaceful manner.

"'All countries should cooperate to find a peaceful solution for Iran. I had a meeting with Kirchner, and we agreed that a solution based on negotiations must be found,' said ElBaradei.

(La Nacion) /"What is your assessment of Argentina's nuclear agenda?/

(ElBaradei) "Argentina is the only country in the region that has developed the complete nuclear fuel cycle and that is in a position to export nuclear technology, like the reactor that was sold to Australia, which is very pleased with it. Argentina may play a significant role as a possessor of this technology. It could be part of this possible rebirth of nuclear energy, and Argentina and Brazil may be in a position to cooperate by supplying nuclear fuel.

(La Nacion) /"How would you explain the case of Iran?/

(ElBaradei) "Iran is a complex case. For 20 years it developed an undeclared nuclear program underground. The IAEA has told Iran that it should behave with greater transparency about its project because people do not have confidence in the nature of its nuclear program. There has been progress, but we still need additional information. If a country has a nuclear enrichment capability, it is in a position to have the elements needed to produce nuclear weapons. Until the agency is in a position to say that everything in Iran is under its control and oversight, this lack of confidence will continue to exist.

(La Nacion) /"Venezuela has expressed its support for Iran's nuclear development program and is promoting that position in this region. Does that transform it into a country about which additional safeguards need to be applied in nuclear matters?/

(ElBaradei) "Many of the non-aligned nations say that Iran has the right to proceed with uranium enrichment. Nobody is questioning Iran's right; the problem is the moment it has chosen to exercise that right. It does not bother me if any country has a nuclear development project, provided that it is conducted under an IAEA inspection and verification program. It does draw our attention when a country has an enrichment program, for that could provide it with the technological capability to develop nuclear weapons. Venezuela has no reactors. It has a right to have them, provided that they are under this agency's supervision. I see no reason to worry about that.")

(In another report in Spanish on 29 November Clarin's Natasha Niebieskikwiat adds: "Official sources told /Clarin/ that in Buenos Aires ElBaradei discussed the characteristics of the report that he has just presented to the IAEA Board of Governors, which speaks of the existence of /progress in Iran's cooperation/ in shedding light on its nuclear program. Although the sources consulted stated that the government had merely noted this, it is known that a distinction is made here between Argentina's bilateral conflict with Tehran over the attack on the AMIA (Argentine-Jewish Mutual Association -- for which international arrest warrants have been issued for a handful of former Iranian officials -- and Iran's nuclear development program. Argentina is a country with a high level of nuclear development, so it is quite sensitive to any restrictions in this field.

"In speaking with the press yesterday, ElBaradei told /Clarin/ that he agreed with President Kirchner that a solution needs to be found for the entire Middle East situation, a solution based on /'negotiations, equity, and justice.'/

"The IAEA official also reported that he had offered Planning Minister Julio De Vido assistance from IAEA experts in monitoring the safety levels of Atucha II. CNEA (National Commission for Atomic Energy) technical personnel have reported that this plant, which is still under construction, uses a design and technology that are antiquated and even obsolete, and which are not in compliance with the international regulations that were put in place after the Chernobyl tragedy in 1986.")

(Description of Source: Buenos Aires Clarin (Internet Version-WWW) in Spanish -- nationalist, tabloid-format daily; highest-circulation newspaper.) '

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Thursday, November 29, 2007

McCain blames Rise of Hitler on Ron Paul
Not Invading and Occupying other Countries Branded 'Isolationism'

In a new low of despicable looniness, at the Republican debate in St. Petersburg, John McCain equated those Americans who want to stop militarily occupying Iraq with Hitler-enablers. He actually said that, saying that it was 'isolationism' of a sort that allowed Hitler to come to power.

It gives a person a certain amount of faith in one's fellow Americans that McCain was booed by the Republican crowd for this piece of calumny. Comparisons to Hitler should be automatic grounds for a candidate to be disqualified from being president.

But then McCain is the same person who joked about bombing Iran. He thinks that killing all those children from the air would be funny?

McCain also repeated his standard lie that Iraqis would attack the United States if US troops were withdrawn from that country. He contrasted the Vietnamese Communists, who, he said, just wanted to build their workers' utopia in Vietnam once the US left, with Iraqis, who he continues to confuse with Usamah Bin Laden (a Saudi living far from Iraq who never had anything to do with Iraq).

Of course, back in the early 1970s, if you had asked McCain, he would have said we have to fight the Vietnamese because of the Domino effect, and if we lost there then International Communism would be in our living rooms. Now, he says the Vietnamese Communists weren't expansionist at all, and just wanted socialism in one country.

So then, John, if that was true and there was never any danger of a domino effect, why did we sacrifice 58,000 US lives and kill a million to two million Vietnamese peasants? You just admitted we weren't in any danger from them, even if they defeated us.

But since you were wrong about the domino effect with regard to Vietnamese Communism (which I remember arguing in a class debate as a teenager in 1967 was just a form of nationalism), how do we know you aren't just as wrong or wronger about your fantastic Muslim domino theory? After all, international communism was a big important political movement to which many governments adhered. Al-Qaeda is a few thousand scruffy guys afraid to come out of their caves, who don't even have good sleeping bags much less a government to their name.

McCain is so confused that he thinks Shiite Iran is supporting "al-Qaeda." When I think that people who say these crazy things serve in the US senate and are plausible as presidents of our Republic, I despair a little. (When I see a nut job like Tancredo on the podium, he of 'let's nuke Mecca,' I despair a lot, but that is a different story.)

McCain also insisted that we never lost a battle in Vietnam. He still doesn't understand guerrilla war. What battle did the French lose in Algeria? You don't lose a guerrilla war because you lose a conventional set piece battle. Then it would be a conventional war and not a guerrilla one. You lose it because you cannot control the country and it is too expensive in treasure and life to go on staying there.

Ron Paul was only allowed to reply briefly to McCain's outrageous and mean-spirited diatribe. Although the transcript says he was applauded for saying that it was only natural that the Iraqis would want us out of their hair, just as we wouldn't want somebody invading and occupying us-- I heard a lot of booing in response to that point.

At another point, Paul made the point that the quiet parts of Iraq -- the Shiite deep south and the Kurdistan area in the north-- are the places where there are no foreign troops to speak of. Unfortunately, he forgot the name of the Kurds and seemed to get confused, so I'm not sure he got the point across.

Here is the exchange.

"McCain: . . . I just want to also say that Congressman Paul, I've heard him now in many debates talk about bringing our troops home, and about the war in Iraq and how it's failed.

(Applause)

And I want to tell you that that kind of isolationism, sir, is what caused World War II. We allowed...

(Applause)

We allowed ...

(Audience booing)

Cooper: Allow him his answer. Allow him his answer, please.

McCain: We allowed -- we allowed Hitler to come to power with that kind of attitude of isolationism and appeasement.

(Audience booing)

And I want to tell you something, sir. I just finished having Thanksgiving with the troops, and their message to you is -- the message of these brave men and women who are serving over there is, "Let us win. Let us...

(Applause)

Cooper: We will -- please. We will get to Iraq...

(Applause)

All right. Let me just remind everyone that these people did take a lot of time to ask these questions, and so we do want direct questions to -- the answers. We will get to Iraq later, but I do have to allow Congressman Paul 30 seconds to respond.

Paul: Absolutely. The real question you have to ask is why do I get the most money from active duty officers and military personnel?

(Applause)

What John is saying is just totally distorted.

(Protester shouts off-mike)

Paul: He doesn't even understand the difference between non- intervention and isolationism. I'm not an isolationism, (shakes head) em, isolationist. I want to trade with people, talk with people, travel. But I don't want to send troops overseas using force to tell them how to live. We would object to it here and they're going to object to us over there.

(Applause)"

The rest is here. This is what Ron Paul said about Iraq:

"Paul: The best commitment we can make to the Iraqi people is to give them their country back. That's the most important thing that we can do.

(Applause)

Already, part of their country has been taken back. In the south, they claim the surge has worked, but the surge really hasn't worked. There's less violence, but al-Sadr has essentially won in the south.

The British are leaving. The brigade of Al Sadr now is in charge, so they are getting their country back. They're in charge up north -- the Shia -- the people in the north are in charge, as well, and there's no violence up there or nearly as much.

So, let the people have their country back again. Just think of the cleaning up of the mess after we left Vietnam. Vietnam now is a friend of ours -- we trade with them, the president comes here.

What we achieved in peace was unachievable in 20 years of the French and the Americans being in Vietnam.

So it's time for us to take care of America first.

(Applause) "

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13 Wounded, including 7 US Troops, in Baquba Bombing
Biden says Surge Success 'a Fantasy'
Da'wa splits, Some eye Jaafari as Leader

7 US troops were wounded along with 5 Iraqi civilians when a female suicide bomber detonated her payload in Baquba. The attack took place on Tuesday but was not announced until Wednesday.

Senator Joe Biden says that the idea that the US troop escalation or 'surge' is "working" in Iraq is a "fantasy" because there is no evidence that it has produced political progress or reconciliation.

A lot of the reduction in violence has been produced by artificial measures like forbidding vehicular traffic in certain areas or building big blast walls around neighborhoods, isolating them and destroying their retailers. These steps are good insofar as they prevent attacks. But they would only really be successful in the medium to long term if they contributed to a political settlement. The problem is that such measures are not sustainable. You got the big bombing in the pet market last Friday because the US military started letting people drive there again, creating an opening for a car bomber. So reducing violence is praiseworthy, however it is done. But if people are going to talk about "success," they have to show a sort of political progress such that when the cars start circulating again or the blast walls come down, you don't revert to civil war. The "surge" troops are already beginning to come home. Will the violence just return in their wake?

Biden is asking the right question. Even Republicans like Lindsay Graham and Saxby Chambliss seem to agree with his premise. But their apparent confidence that they can just change the Iraqi government at will is probably misplaced. Or at least there is no guarantee they will get something better if they do.

The Americans already helped unseat the elected prime minister, Ibrahim Jaafari. Speaking of whom, Al-Sharq al-Awsat reports in Arabic that various splinter groups of the Da'wa Party and offshoots of the Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq, unhappy that Jaafari was unseated, are attempting to convince him to act as their leader and to challenge al-Maliki as prime minister. Under the Iraqi constitution, 55 members of parliament can call a vote of no confidence against the prime minister. Al-Maliki is certainly vulnerable to such a maneuver.

The US has bribed 6,000 tribesmen to help guard the northern city of Hawija from Salafi Jihadi infiltration into northern Iraq. If I read the report correctly, they are receiving $275 a month for patrolling. That would be $1,650,000 a month or $19,800,000 a year for Hawija. Since the US was spending several billion dollars a month to keep tens of thousands of US soldiers in Iraq to do the same thing, it sounds like a bargain to me.

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Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Sadrists Demonstrate
Sistani calls for an End to Sunni-Shiite violence
Agreement of Principles is Criticized

Thousands of Sadrists demonstrated in downtown Baghdad for a second day on Tuesday, complaining about their marginalization and the high-handed policies of PM Nuri al-Maliki.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the Sadr Movement and the Sunni Iraqi Accord Front both rejected the 'memorandum of understanding' between the US and Iraq signed by PM Nuri al-Maliki and US president George W. Bush two days ago. They complain that neither leader has the constitutional authority to make such an agreement without involvement of the legislature. They also complained that the document does not specify a timetable for withdrawal of US troops. One Sadrist called it a blueprint for a long-term civil Occupation of Iraq.

Meanwhile, Sunni and Shiite clerics are meeting in the Shiite holy city of Najaf.

Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, who lives in Najaf, called for harmony between Sunnis and Shiites.

Journalists polled by Pew say that at least half of Baghdad, including the Shiite slum of Sadr City, is too dangerous to visit still. The journalists say that Iraq is much more violent now than when they first arrived. A lot of them also think that the US media coverage of Iraq is overly sunny.

25% of Blackwater security guards in Iraq use steroids or other mind-altering drugs.

Two US soldiers died in Iraq on Tuesday. A series of bombings and attackes in the area north of Baghdad has killed some 35 persons in the past 24 hours.

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Pakistani Press on Sharif's Return

The USG Open Source Center rounds up the Urdu press in Pakistan on the return of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif.

Urdu Press Roundup on Prevailing Political Situation After Sharif's Return
Pakistan -- OSC Summary
Wednesday, November 28, 2007

The following is a roundup of excerpts from editorials and an article on the political situation after the return of former Prime Minister Mian Mohammad Nawaz Sharif to the country, published in the 27 November editions of six Urdu dailies:

Nawa-e Waqt Editorial Urges Opposition Parties To Take United Stance

Emphasizing that the homecoming of the leaders of two major political parties is posing a threat to the rule by President General Musharraf and his allies, the editorial states, "If the opposition fully concentrates on the supremacy of the Constitution for which civil society has laid the foundation, it will become difficult for Musharraf to continue in office against the provisions of the Constitution. Therefore, it will be a real test for all the opposition leaders, including Sharif and Bhutto, to rise to the occasion. The smallest lapse on their part at this juncture can cause irreparable damage to the unity and integrity of the country."

Jang Article by Irshad Ahmed Haqqani Sees Sharif, Bhutto Participating in Elections

Discussing the pros and cons of the two major parties in the country boycotting the elections, the article comments, "Although Bhutto and Sharif have not contacted or met each other, there is hope that they will hold mutual consultations in a bid to chalk out a joint strategy to counter the prevailing situation. Despite the decision by the All Parties Democratic Movement (APDM) to boycott ther elections, the two leaders will probably decide to participate in them. In spite of all the odds, this decision will be reasonable. It will be worrisome for the rulers, but they will not be in a position to prevent it."

Islam Editorial Discusses Sharif's Decision To Lead Nation

Discussing the political situation Sharif is facing after his return to the country, the editorial states: "If Sharif decides to boycott the election in spite of his return to the country, it will possibly benefit the Pakistan People's Party and the forces that pull the strings of power. The Sharif brothers have returned home after staying abroad in exile for a long time and wholeheartedly expressed their willingness to represent the people of Pakistan. It will be clear to some extent, in the next few days, as to how far the situation allows them to play this role and what sort of political farsightedness they show." Jang Editorial Calls For Burying Hatchets, Making New Beginning

Urging all the political stakeholders to work for the establishment of a conducive political environment in the country, the editorial says: "There is no doubt that the politics in the country have taken a new turn after the return of Bhutto and Sharif. All the political forces, including the government and the opposition, now need to work for the stability and promotion of democracy in the country and serve the larger interests of the nation. They should create such a congenial atmosphere that the holding of elections in a peaceful manner becomes possible and every candidate accepts the election results." Jinnah Editorial Discusses Legal Implications of Sharif Contesting Elections

Referring to the reports that Sharif will not be able to contest the elections because of his conviction in a case, the editorial writes: "Sharif is trying to create the impression that he has not returned to the country by striking some deal, while Bhutto has said that the homecoming of Sharif is an outcome of the National Reconciliation Ordinance. At the same time, Attorney General Malik Muhammad Qayyum says: 'Sharif's participation in the elections is difficult. He is facing cases with the National Accountability Bureau with regard to an airplane hijacking and the purchase of a helicopter; however, if he seeks remission of the penalties, there might be some way out.'"

Express Editorial Calls for Stability, Democracy in Country

Urging the government to show more magnanimity to enable the creation of a congenial political environment in the country, the editorial remarks, "It is expected that the government will give a free hand to political leaders to participate in the political process in the same spirit of magnanimity it showed in allowing them to return home and providing many facilities, including the provision of security. Such steps by the government will go a long way in the promotion of democracy and stability in the country. The national interests should be kept in mind while they work for the stability of the political system. Sharif has demonstrated positive thinking by saying that he does not believe in the politics of victimization. People expect a similar reaction from the government also."

Khabrain Editorial Says Election Only Means To Put Country on Track of Democracy

Supporting the statement of Sharif that the country's survival lies in holding of elections, the editorial states, "The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz Group is one of the main political parties in the country, and people have expectations from it. These can be fulfilled only if the party takes part in the elections. The present situation is such that the parties in the APDM are insisting on boycotting the elections, but at the same time, they are filing nominations, which has increased the uncertainty. They should assume a decisive stance in favor of participating the elections and not boycotting them. By doing this, Sharif can also realize the desire he expressed by saying that he has returned to break the backbone of dictatorship. People will be bound to think that if he boycotts the elections, he has decided to stay away from the electoral process following a deal with the government." '


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Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Al-Maliki Negotiates a Treaty with US
Kurds Defiant on Oil Deals

The government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is negotiating a formal bilateral treaty with the United States. The question is whether the agreement will be submitted to parliament for ratification, and whether al-Maliki will be able to get a majority of parliamentarians to vote for it if so. Much of the work of the Iraqi government is never put through parliament and is just implemented by fiat by the executive.

Iraq's Kurds are undeterred by the warning by federal Oil Minister Hussein Shahristani that contracts signed by the Kurdistan Regional Government with foreign oil companies are null and void unless they are also signed by the federal government. The Kurds say they will go on making the contracts.

Marjorie Cohn on the need to keep fighting against the idea of a new war with Iran.

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Dulaim: Al-Maliki is trying to Marginalize Sunnis

The USG Open Source Center translates an interview in the Iraqi newspaper Ilaf with Adnan Dulaimi, a leader of the Iraqi Accord Front (Sunni fundamentalist, called in Arabic Tawafuq), the major Sunni Arab party in Parliament, with 44 seats out of 275. The IAF has withdrawn from the al-Maliki 'national unity' government. Excerpt:

'Dr Adnan al-Dulaymi says that "the Iraqi Government, represented by the prime minister, acts arbitrarily and unilaterally and seeks to exclude all political components, except for one or two components. This causes great imbalance in the political process. The ministers of Al-Sadr Bloc and then the ministers of Al-Tawafuq Front and some ministers of the Iraqi National Bloc have withdrawn (from the government), while the government has continued to function. This is evidence that all these ministries had no impact on the course of governance and that the prime minister is in charge of everything in a dictatorial and strict manner. This will lead to the failure of the political process, unless there is participation by the parliamentary blocs participating in the government, which was called a national unit government . . . I do not think the political process will advance; rather, it will fall behind. There will be paralysis in many administrative and executive aspects within the government, and we call for changing this and rectifying this situation quickly."

Al-Dulaymi believes that [Prime Minister Nuri] Al-Maliki's sources of strength that keep him in power after all these withdrawals "are the executive authority and what was stipulated in the constitution, in terms of concentrating executive powers in the hand of the prime minister. This is considered a flaw in the constitution. The president of the republic should participate in making the important decisions in the country. The constitution has concentrated executive powers in the hand of the head of government, and this imparts some dictatorial domination and despotism to the prime minister."

Al-Dulaymi is not afraid of the government's attempt to bypass his political bloc in light of the government's cooperation with the awakening councils of tribes in the Sunni areas, which constitute the popular base of Al-Dulaymi. He says: "We have ties with the awakening councils. Before his death, Shaykh Sattar Abu-Rishah, leader of Al-Anbar Awakening Council, God have mercy on him, announced that the awakening councils cannot be a substitute for Al-Tawafuq Front. We are in constant touch with these awakening councils. We do not think the government can make these awakening councils a substitute for Al-Tawafuq Front. We are MPs elected by the Iraqi people. We are the real, official representatives of an important political, demographic, and sectarian component in Iraq. We think the government will in the end be forced to deal with the MPs of Al-Tawafuq Front."

(Al-Khayyat) Weren't the awakening councils unwelcome by the government, which until recently had opposed the establishment of awakening councils? What has happened to change this? Besides, Shaykh Abu-Rishah was killed at a time when there was objection to the awakening councils? So do you think the government had a hand in this?

(Al-Dulaymi) The killing of Abu-Rishah at this stage was a strong blow to the awakening councils, especially in Al-Anbar. The investigation is still under way and we have not received any result of this investigation. There are many interpretations and leaks concerning this issue, but Al-Qa'ida is at the forefront of those who were accused of killing Abu-Rishah. The current government is trying to employ everything to its advantage, but it is unable to do this because those in charge of awakening councils are sensible people and they understand the aims of the government. These people should cooperate with the government, but this cooperation will not be against our areas or against Al-Tawafuq Front. We are in touch with the awakening councils and we seek cooperation.

I am absolutely certain that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki wants to exclude Al-Tawafuq Front and marginalize the Sunnis. He also wants sectarian rule in Iraq that is concentrated in a narrow circle of political components. He is in disagreement with Al-Sadr Trend. He is also in disagreement with Al-Fadilah Party and some of the blocs in the (Iraqi) Islamic Supreme Council (IISC) and in the (Unified Iraqi) Coalition (UIC) Bloc. What is happening in Karbala, Al-Diwaniyah, and Basra is the biggest evidence that there is no unity of views or agreement among these political blocs, which are brought together by the UIC Bloc. The Al-Fadilah Party has left the UIC. The Al-Sadr Trend has also left it. The UIC is vulnerable to more fragmentation and more division.

(Al-Khayyat) Doesn't the exit of Al-Sadr Trend and Al-Fadilah Party from the UIC Bloc and the government indicate that Al-Maliki is not sectarian and that he has a different agenda?

(Al-Dulaymi) No, Al-Maliki is sectarian. He seeks to monopolize power and exclude political entities that are within the UIC and that should be gagged and removed from power. What is happening in Karbala, Al-Diwaniyah, and Basra is the biggest evidence of this.

(Al-Khayyat) The prime minister has announced that 2008 is the year of reconstruction. Don't you think that this talk is closer to propaganda than reality, in light of the lack of qualified people and integrity?

(Al-Dulaymi) There will not be real reconstruction in Iraq unless there is political accord among all components of the Iraqi people. There is reconstruction in the Kurdistan Region because there is political accord and there is security. If the prime minister does not accept the demands that were presented by Al-Tawafuq Front, and if real cooperation is not achieved in all government posts, including ministers, under secretaries, and directors general, it will not be possible to achieve any reconstruction and it will also not be possible to achieve security. We hope that this will happen, but this requires the availability of introductions, most important of which are political accord and a national unity government. Otherwise, reconstruction will not take place, since there are many corrupt persons and there are many people who are lying in wait for Iraqi funds. There are now complaints in all parts of Iraq that there is no real reconstruction and that the funds allocated for reconstruction are going to the pockets of corrupt persons. The Integrity Commission and the Financial Control (Bureau) should be given an adequate opportunity to examine the accounts of everybody. '

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Monday, November 26, 2007

Bush's Middle East Unravels Further

Bush's achievements in the Middle East were supposed to have been the 'Cedar Revolution' in Lebanon and the removal of Syria troops; holding fair elections in Palestine in January of 2006; and a deal to have Gen. Pervez Musharraf cohabit politically with Benazir Bhutto, leader of the Pakistan People's Party.

As of this weekend, Lebanon does not have a president and the country's stability is in doubt. The Palestinian Authority is divided and is a mess, with the elected government having been overthrown by a US-backed coup. And opposition leader Nawaz Sharif has returned to Pakistan, possibly derailing the Benazir option but also provoking a crisis in the political elite about what they should do.

I don't think this is going well.
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Bombings Kill 10 in Baghdad
Iraqi Parliament in Uproar over Debaathification
Al-Hakim Defends Iran

On Sunday, the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki presented to parliament its bill revising the expulsion of ex-Baathists from government jobs and public life. The Shiite deputies in parliament essentially booed it, with the thirty Sadrist deputies pounding the table and making it impossible for parliament to conduct business. Parliament adjourned among shouting and scuffling. Shiite suffered under the Baath Party and are uncomfortable at what they see as an attempt to rehabilitate Baathists.

Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, leader of the Islamic Supreme Council in Iraq (ISCI), has denied that Iran has behaved disruptively in Iraq. Al-Hakim lived much of his adult life in exile in Tehran and is still close to the ayatollahs.

Guerrillas set off a big bomb in downtown Baghdad on Sunday.

The bombing near the Health Ministry in Baghdad on Sunday, and the earlier bombing on Friday of a pet market demonstrate how artificial the relative reduction in violence in Iraq has been. One newspaper account revealed that the pet market had begun doing business again only because the US military forbade automobiles to drive in that area. Now, I'm all in favor of such measures as part of an over-all policy, and had suggested them myself at IC in the past. If car bombs daily kill a lot of people at a market, then obviously it is best you don't let people drive into that market. So I'm not complaining. I am just pointing out that if you get relative calm that way, you can't be sure it isn't just an inevitably temporary policy that is producing it. And sure enough, last Monday the US military had started letting people drive in the area of the pet market, and . . . kaboom! Car bomb? Yes. Car bomb.

This problem is why everyone admits that we need a political solution. Security precautions are temporary. Political solutions can be long-lived.

Reuters reports civil war violence for Iraq on Sunday:


BAGHDAD - A car bomb killed nine people and wounded 30 near the Health Ministry in Bab al-Muadham street in central Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb wounded two civilians in the Waziriya district of northern Baghdad, police said. A second roadside bomb exploded when Iraqi security forces arrived on the scene, killing one soldier and wounding six others, police said. . .

BAGHDAD - Five corpses were found in various parts of Baghdad, police said.

MOSUL - A roadside bomb targeting a U.S. patrol wounded six people in the city of Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said. . .

MOSUL - Gunmen killed a guard at the headquarters of the Sunni Islamic Party in eastern Mosul . .

FALLUJA - Police detained four gunmen after an attack that wounded a policeman in Falluja, 50 km (30 miles) west of Baghdad, police said. . .

KIRKUK - One Iraqi soldier was killed and four were wounded when Iraqi forces opened fire on an explosives-laden truck speeding towards a checkpoint in the city of Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad, police said. Three soldiers were still missing after the truck exploded, police added.

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Miscellany and Annapolis

On the Annapolis "meeting" (downgraded from a conference), Mark Matthews of the Baltimore Sun contrasts the preparation and success of the Madrid peace conference in 1991 under Bush Sr., with the likely failure to accomplish much in Annapolis.

See also the comments of Dick Norton on Annapolis at our Global Affairs group blog.

A reminder that can sign up to receive Informed Comment by email if you don't like to read on the web. Tell your friends-- this is a side of the site that I would like to build up (at any one time about 1,000 readers get the postings this way, but the subscription list does not seem to grow beyond that number.)

And remember that mynew book, Napoleon's Egypt: Invading the Middle East is the perfect Christmas present for that friend or relative who seems so hard to shop for.
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Tanter on Rudd and Australian Security Policy

Professor Richard Tanter of the Nautilus Institute at RMIT in Melbourne writes from Australia:

'A small note on your comment on Kevin Rudd's election in Australia.

On the question of security policy, this is what I think will happen in the next half year:

1. Iraq: Rudd is committed to removing Australian troops from Iraq, and that is a popular position. In practice I think this will mean


a. Removing the Operation Overwatch Battle Group from Dhi Qar.

b. Retaining the ADF training group, mainly at Ali Base. For reasons I'll explain below it may even be boosted.

c. Retaining the RAN naval and RAAF air deployments in the Persian Gulf

d. It is not clear what will happen to the Australian components in the MNC command centres in Baghdad and Basra. My guess would be the latter will go, but the some elements former will stay. However, most of the Australian National Headquarters Middle East Area of Operations in Baghdad will transfer to Afghanistan (see below).


2. Rudd is very much persuaded of the "bad war, Iraq; good war, Afghanistan" position. Australia now has 1,000 troops in Afghanistan. [see Australia in Afghanistan, Nautilus Institute. There will be a redeployment of combat and support forces from one theatre to the other. Australian Afghanistan operations are now taking more casualties, though still nothing like US or Canadian levels. But they have increased sharply recently and this trend will continue. In April this year the Australian Special Operations Task group (SAS and other Army special forces) was somewhat hurriedly deployed back to Uruzgan less than 8 months after they were pulled out. Pulling out of Iraq would allow them and the protective group of the Reconstruction task Force at Tarin Kowt to be rotated more easily. (remember the ADF also has a big deployment [for its small size] in East Tiimor.)

Maybe some specialists will be left in the Camp Victory MNC HQ, but the longstanding concern inside the ADF about running the Afghanistan operation from Baghdad through the Australian National Headquarters - Middle East Area of Operations will result in shifting most ADF HQ functions and personnel to the National command Element in Kabul. There is a huge strain inside the ADF at the moment because of deployments in eight overseas operations, including three big ones - Iraq, Afghanistan, and East Timor

3. Iran: Rudd announced during the election campaign that a Labor government would initiate legal proceedings against Ahmadinejad on a charge of incitement to genocide. There has been no further development on that since then. Should the US attack Iran, Rudd would support the attack diplomatically with enthusiasm. It is unlikely the rest of his cabinet would be so willing, but Rudd will not be leading a Westminster-style government of Cabinet responsibility. He will certainly direct foreign policy. Rudd would be receptive to a US request for Australian military support, but would probably face resistance from ADF senior commanders on pragmatic grounds of over-stretch.

4. Rudd is best understood as Tony Blair, with many of the same skills, dispositions and weaknesses. All Labor prime ministers have supported the Aust-US [A(NZ)US] alliance - that's de rigueur in Australian politics. But Rudd is probably the most vocal supporter of the US alliance amongst postwar Labor prime ministers, and somewhat shocked many ALP supporters by declaring his loyalty to that alliance in his victory speech on Saturday night. This means he will be working closely with Bush to minimize the impact of the Iraq withdrawal commitment. Hence my thinking that it will be limited to combat troops and they in turn will be used to bolster the increasingly beleaguered, but unscrutinised, Afghanistan deployment. As mentioned he may also boost the training deployment in Iraq as another way of mollifying Bush.

Of course, the big positive gain from the Rudd victory is over climate change: here in Australia we are so desperate that even ratifying the Kyoto Protocol ten years too late (and recall that the deal Australia got at Kyoto was outrageously advantageous to it) will be great symbolically. Hopefully, something more substantive will come out of Bali, or if not Bali (because it's going to be hard) then in the ensuing protracted negotiations.

FYI, my own take on security policy during the election campaign was on an Australian Broadcasting Commission Radio National debate.'

Professor Richard Tanter
Director Nautilus Institute
RMIT University

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Sunday, November 25, 2007

Firedoglake Book Salon: The DeLay Reaction

Check out the Firedoglake Book Salon on Sunday, All About The Benjamins: A “Follow The Money” Book Salon Preview.

It is the story of how Tom DeLay and other corrupt Republican politicians reduced taxes and regulations on big corporations in the name of helping the common person.
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New Australian PM Rudd will Withdraw Combat Troops from Iraq
Shahristani: Kurdistan Oil Deals Void
Bush scales back Expectations (again)

Another one bites the dust. World politics is littered with the political corpses of rightwing leaders who bucked their own public to join in George W. Bush's wars and misadventures. Spain, Italy, Poland, and in a way the UK are all object lessons in this regard. Now John Howard of Australia has joined their number Australia's new prime minister, Kevin Rudd, has pledged to withdraw Australia's 550 combat troops from Iraq (Australia has about 500 more non-combat troops doing development work in Iraq, and it is not clear what will now be done with them). Rudd will also sign the Kyoto Treaty on fighting global warming. Rudd speaks Chinese and will stake out a new geopolitical position for Australia, while attempting to retain good or at least correct relations with Washington (next year this time that will likely be easier). Rudd's deputy prime minister is a woman (a first), and his team includes a rock star, former Midnight Oil singer Peter Garrett.

Hey, I want a government in the US that looks like this-- pro labor, against foreign military adventures, afraid of global warming, the leader speaks an Asia language, and a rock star is on the team.

Australia also has some troops in Afghanistan, which looks increasingly troubled. See Barnett Rubin's important recent postings on the situation there and Manan Ahmed's excellent entry on northern Pakistan at our Global Affairs Group Blog.

The NYT reports that the Bush administration is giving up on most of its political benchmarks for Iraq. Apparently the most they think they can now hope for is that Iraq will ask the United Nations to authorize an extension of the US mandate in Iraq, that parliament will pass a budget, and that the Iraqi parliament will pass a law allowing mid-level former Baath officials to hold government jobs if they have not been shown to have committed crimes in the Saddam period. Powerful blocs in parliament such as the Sadrists oppose the UN extension of the US mandate in Iraq, and most Shiites and Kurds also oppose changes in the de-Baathification regulations. I wonder if even these scaled-down political expectations are realistic. PM Nuri al-Maliki is a minority prime minister with very little support in his own parliament, and only his Kurdish alliance even allows him to stay in power.

Oil Minister Hussein Shahristani declared Saturday that all oil contracts signed with the Kurdistan Regional Government that were not pre-approved by the Baghdad federal government are null and void. Shahristani has been threatening to take this step for some time, out of frustration that Kurdistan is acting like an independent country and making its own petroleum deals. (Recently Hunt Oil, the owner of which is close to the Bush family, explored contracts in Kurdistan.)

Kurdistan officials charged that Shahristani is exceeding his authority and say that their procedures are in accord with the semi-autonomy granted provincial confederations by the Iraqi constitution (which recognizes regional rather than federal claims to new petroleum and mineral finds).

Shahristani is known to be close to Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, and this tiff can be seen as a struggle between Shiites who want a fairly strong central government and Kurds who want a very weak one.

These kinds of disputes raise the question of whether it is even possible to develop Iraqi petroleum before there is a comprehensive political settlement in the country (see above for the likelihood of that happening any time soon).

Sawt al-Iraq reports that the Sadr Movement is rejecting any Iraq participation in the Annopolis conference on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr said that participation would constitute an open recognition of the state of Israel, a step he opposes.

The US military is blaming what it describes as an Iran-backed "special group" cell inside the Shiite Mahdi Army for bombing a pet market in a Shiite part of Baghdad on Friday, which killed 9 and wounded 60 persons. The US military says it has forensic evidence and confessions by detainees to substantiate its claim.

This story doesn't make any sense to me, and I would need to see some evidence before I would accept it. Confessions under duress prove nothing, and circumstantial evidence has often fallen apart under inquiry by defense counsel. In Iraq, there is no defense counsel for "insurgents" arrested by the US military, and no way to question such allegations. The Mahdi Army is unlikely to bomb Shiites to make them want to join it. Shiites have already joined it in the hundreds of thousands. A crime has means, motive and opportunity. The motive being ascribed here makes no sense. If it had been a Sunni neighborhood, that would be different.

The US military depends on the Mojahedin-e Khalq terrorist organization, Iranian expatriates to whom Saddam gave a based in Diyala Province, for much of its intelligence on Iran. The MEK is a cult-like group of notorious liars and murderers linked to the American Neoconservatives, and so it is no wonder that the US military in Iraq is always coming out and saying the most amazing and implausible things about Iran.

McClatchy on Saturday's violence in Iraq.

At the Napoleon's Egypt blog, the British editors of the captured French letters from Egypt slam Napoleon.

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Iraq Clerics Call for Stronger Security Forces, National Reconciliation

The USG Open Source Center rounds up Friday prayers sermons shown on Iraqi television this week:

'Round-up of Iraqi Friday Sermons 23 Nov
Iraq -- OSC Summary
Saturday, November 24, 2007

Major Iraqi television channels - Baghdad Al-Iraqiyah, Baghdad Baghdad Satellite Channel, Baghdad Al-Sharqiyah, Baghdad Al-Furat, Cairo Al-Baghdadiyah, and Baghdad Al-Diyar - are observed on 23 November to carry the following reports on Friday sermons:

Al-Iraqiyah:

Within its 1700 GMT newscast, Baghdad Al-Iraqiyah Television in Arabic - government-sponsored television station, run by the Iraqi Media Network - is observed to carry the following report on today's Friday sermons:

"Shaykh Dr Ahmad Abd-al-Ghafur al-Samarra'i, head of the Sunni Waqf Bureau, said that the terrorist Al-Qa'ida organization is breathing its last. In a Friday sermon at the Abu-Hanifah al-Nu'man Mosque, Shaykh Al-Samarra'i called on the Iraqis to unite their word and stand for the sake of completely eliminating the terrorist groups and consolidating security in the country."

Shaykh Al-Samarra'i says: "From the Abu-Hanifah al-Nu'man Mosque, it pleases me to salute the zealous men of Al-A'zamiyah, who suffered a great deal. It is time to restore their health, nurse their wounds, break their shackles, and restore smile to children."

The report adds: "Dr Al-Samarra'i said that the takfiri (holding other Muslims to be infidel) plans have been exposed and foiled thanks to the Iraqis' awareness, patience, and unity against all conspiracies."

Al-Samarra'i says: "Some sides have been paid to foment sectarian seditions among the Iraqi people and create differences among the Sunnis, Shiites, Arabs, Turkomen, Kurds, and Muslims and non-Muslims. However, we say that the Iraqis are one body and they are united. All Iraqis are now aware of the game and the conspiracy."

The report says: "In a Friday sermon today, [Shiite] Shaykh Hamid al-Sa'idi, imam and preacher of the Buratha Mosque, stressed the importance of achieving solidarity and closing ranks to face challenges. At the same time, he stressed the need to upgrade collective action to rally round the national constants with the aim of overcoming the current circumstances."

Shaykh Al-Sa'idi says: "We should be armed with awareness in order to foil the plans of all troublemakers, those who seek to mislead the people, and all those who wreak havoc on earth to obstruct the great march of this good nation."

Baghdad Satellite Channel:

Baghdad Baghdad Satellite Television in Arabic - television channel believed to be sponsored by the Iraqi Islamic Party - at 0912 GMT is observed to carry the following Friday sermon from an unidentified mosque in Baghdad. Shaykh Dr Harith al-Ubaydi delivers the sermon:

In his Friday sermon, the preacher says that Almighty God's creatures are two groups, "one goes to Paradise and another goes to hell." He adds that God "tests people according to their faith." He says that anyone who "succeeds" in this test will go to Paradise and the one who "fails" will go to hell. The preacher then elaborates of God's "rewards to martyrs."

Al-Sharqiyah:

Within its 1700 GMT newscast, Baghdad Al-Sharqiyah Television in Arabic - independent, private news and entertainment channel focusing on Iraq, run by Sa'd al-Bazzaz, publisher of the Arabic language daily Al-Zaman - is observed to carry the following report on today's Friday sermon by [Shiite Sadrist] Shaykh Abd-al-Hadi al-Muhammadawi, imam and preacher of the Al-Kufa Friday sermon:

"Shaykh Abd-al-Hadi al-Muhammadawi, imam and preacher of the Al-Kufa Friday sermon, warned Nuri al-Maliki's government of continuing its targeting of the Al-Sadr Trend in Iraq's southern governorates. He stressed that every action has an equal reaction. Al-Muhammadawi, who is a prominent leader in Al-Sadr Trend, which is led by Iraqi man of religion, Al-Sayyid Muqtada al-Sadr, addressed Al-Maliki's government by saying that this is your last chance to stop oppressing the Al-Sadr Trend and to halt the storming and arrest campaigns."

Al-Muhammadawi says: "You are put to a test today. We called for stopping these storming and arrest campaigns against our sons. We tell you that this is your last chance to stop chasing and oppressing our sons and to halt your attempts to weaken the Al-Sadr Trend. Every action has an equal reaction. So, do not use double standards and do not be hypocrites."

He adds: "After terrorism was defeated, this government has devoted its time to the Al-Sadr Trend. It is implementing the occupier's plans of attacking and weakening the Al-Sadr Trend. It launches a barbaric and fierce onslaught against our sons in the various governorates."

Al-Furat:

Within its 1700 GMT newscast, Baghdad Al-Furat Television Channel in Arabic - television channel affiliated with the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council (IISC) led by Abd-al-Aziz al-Hakim, carries the following report on today's Friday sermons:

"Friday preachers stressed the need to learn lessons from the religious and political life of Imam Al-Rida, may God's peace be upon him. The preachers praised the clear improvement in the security situation all over the country and the return of the refugees and the displaced to their areas."

Shaykh Salih al-Haydari, imam and preacher of the Al-Khillani Mosque, says: "They have returned to their country and people after they have made sure that the security situation began to improve."

Shaykh Hamid al-Sa'idi, imam and preacher of the Buratha Mosque, says: "We need to strengthen, develop, and rehabilitate our intrinsic powers and then submit another official request for a clear, transparent, and reasonable dialogue between the government and the multinational forces in order to define powers."

The channel carries an episode of its weekly "Friday Sermons" program at 1808 GMT, as follows:

Shaykh Salih al-Haydari, imam and preacher of the Al-Khillani Mosque, says: "These days, all Iraqis, with all their trends, sects, religions, and faiths; and all the sincere Iraqis, who constitute the majority, view Iraq with great hope which brings peace closer to them. The people these days can see that the security situation is improving from better to best. They are very delighted and happy while seeing that terrorism has been defeated and that conflicts have decreased significantly. They can also see that the honest and good people began to move in the arena for the sake of joint action in the interest of Iraq and its people."

He adds: "Those who had left Iraq out of fear of killing, destruction, and terrorism have begun to return to Baghdad in particular. They began to return in large numbers. Hundreds of families have returned over the past days from the places in which they lived away from home. They have returned to their country and people after they have made sure that the security situation began to improve."

Shaykh Hamid al-Sa'idi, imam and preacher of the Buratha Mosque, says: "The most important issue one can monitor in the Iraqi file is the improvement in the security situation. This significant improvement in the security file is considered an advanced achievement. The stronger this achievement becomes, the more achievements will be made."

He adds: "Our security theory is based on the following elements, which we have emphasized and still emphasize: The first element is the participation of the popular forces, which we called popular committees. Some sides expressed fear that these popular committees would turn into new militias that would affect security. However, it became clear later that security was achieved thanks to what was called the awakenings of tribes and the popular committees."

He says: "The second element is modernizing and rehabilitating the security forces. We have been calling for modernizing and rehabilitating the Iraqi security capabilities, taking into consideration that the people of the country know about its affairs better than anyone else and that the Iraqi policeman is more capable to deal with the sons of his people."

He adds: "The third element in which we believed and in which we still believe and seek to achieve is national accord. There must be serious efforts to achieve national accord on the highest level possible. Iraq, dear brothers, can only be ruled based on partnership due to the sectarian and ethnic diversity and due to this vast geographical area. Therefore, there must be a realistic and real participation of the components of the Iraqi people in order to be able to run our affairs and so that the components of these people can live in peace, security, and stability. This necessitates holding dialogue among all components and setting the necessary rules and the standards to which we should resort. We have the right to say that we are all brothers and we are all the sons of this homeland and that there is no difference between a Shiite and a Sunni or between the Arab, Kurdish, Turkoman, and others. This is a sound statement. However, using these terms as slogans will never take us to the safe shore. What takes us to the safe shore is that all sides should recognize all sides."

Al-Sa'idi adds: "We need to strengthen, develop, and rehabilitate our intrinsic powers and then submit another official request for a clear, transparent, and reasonable dialogue between the government and the multinational forces in order to define powers and draw a road map for the future developments. Iraq should not remain under the hegemony and provisions of chapter seven, which restricts the sovereignty of the government and the state. We admit that we were governed by this decision due to the circumstances that we have passed through and the lack of development in the security file." He says: "We can call this liberating the political will and expanding the powers of the government."

Shaykh Dr Ahmad Abd-al-Ghafur al-Samarra'i, head of the Sunni Waqf Bureau, says: "The voice of the Iraqi people is raised from the mosque of the greatest imam today. This voice says God is great O my country. Today, the Iraqi tribes have risen, the factions of the mujahidin were valiant, and the preachers raised their voices from their pulpits and stood as one man against the criminals, the corrupters, slanderers, the misled, and those who, based on suspicion, killed and executed people and shed their blood. They stood against those who insulted the people of the inexperienced and insolent ones who targeted the people and allowed the shedding of the blood of the sons of Iraq. They have killed thousands of innocent people and beheaded scores of scholars. They issue fatwas (religious rulings) only on shedding the blood of people. All sides agreed to have one word in order to save the blood. Our blood was shed, our people were killed, our installations were destroyed, our hospitals were brought to a halt, our schools were closed, and our houses were demolished. Until when will this destruction and damage continue? I am honored to meet with the honorable people of Al-A'zamiyah, taking into consideration that their delegation visited me a month ago. They used to look at the tragedies of Al-A'zamiyah. They asked me: Are you pleased with what is taking place in Al-A'zamiyah? Can't you see our suffering? Can't you aid us and stop our bleeding by people who wreaked havoc on our land? I told them: May God bless you, I am with you and I am your brother. So, provide me with your men and I will provide you with the elite of my men and the best of my weapons. We agreed to sit together. We spread our maps, set the zero hour, and gave its youth the name of the lions of Al-A'zamiyah. Thus, the two groups met and God granted victory to us. Victory was achieved by the sons of Al-A'zamiyah."

Al-Sayyid Yasin al-Musawi, imam and preacher of the [Shiite] Al-Abbasiyah Shrine, says: "The fourth round of talks is expected to be held among Iraq, Iran, and the United States to discuss the Iraq issue. This issue has a positive effect on the region in general, and on these three states in particular."

He adds: "We believe that this dialogue is in the interest of these three countries. Based on this, we hope that these talks will be a continuation of the previous rounds in terms of tackling the tragic conditions of the Iraqi people. The tragedy has reached a climax." . . .'

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Saturday, November 24, 2007

20,000 Brain-injured Troops Not Counted as War Casualties by Pentagon
Sectarian Shiite Tribes denounce Iran
Chretien Proud of Bucking Bush

Whoever is responsible for this disgusting travesty is an automatic candidate for Keith Olbermann's "Worst Person in the World." My guess is that the trail will lead back to Donald "its not a guerrilla war" Rumsfeld and Richard Bruce "most prominent traitor in American history" Cheney. Gregg Zoroya of USA Today reports that 20,000 US troops who served in Iraq and Afghanistan and suffered brain injuries were never classified as wounded by the Pentagon and are not included in the official statistics for the wounded issued by the Department of Defense. Although some of the under-reporting of this condition could be inadvertent, the scale of it strongly suggests an underlying policy.

Former Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien says that it was among the great victories in his life that he stood against US pressure to join in the Iraq War.

Uh, the purpose of a wise and mature US foreign policy is to avoid close allies ending up speaking like that. Bush has destroyed half a century of good will among NATO allies, most of whom now think they are better off not following Washington's lead. Leaders who threw in with Bush, like Aznar of Spain and Berlusconi of Italy, have been ushered off the political stage by enraged publics. As someone who grew up when the US (and its currency) was respected by most Europeans and other North Americans, I am sad to see the way W. has debased our position and humiliated our country.

Among the biggest irritants in NATO countries against the US now is the mission in Afghanistan, which seems both open-ended and ultimately fruitless. Canada did not dodge that bullet, and has lost dozens of soldiers there, though you would not know it from reading US newspapers. On Friday, Pushtun guerrillas killed an Australian soldier in Uruzgan province (Mulla Omar's birthplace), and others killed 3 civilians, attacked a police checkpoint and killed 7 officers and kidnapped 6 others. (What is the mission? If the mission is to get Pushtuns to stop worrying about Islam and start welcoming foreign troops in their country, I wouldn't hold my breath).

The tribal sheikhs of southern Iraq who have gotten up a petition against Iranian influence in their region should be viewed with some suspicion. I heard supporters of the petition interviewed on Aljazeera today and they were looney as the day is long. One was maintaining that hundreds of thousands of Iranians have flooded into southern Iraq (not true if you mean residents; Iran is nice compared to southern Iraq and nobody is immigrating. You could see that level of immigration on satellite photos!)

The other interviewee supporting the petition was, I swear to God, a member of the Army of Heaven millenarian group that is alleged to have marched on Najaf last January with the aim of killing Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani and other Shiite clerical leaders in hopes of thereby provoking the coming of the Twelfth Imam, the Promised One of Shiite Islam. This man defended the Army of Heaven as Iraqi and intimated that it had been attacked by the Iranians.

So these tribal sheikhs petitioning against Iran are probably linked to Iraqi nativist and sectarian movements like that of Mahmoud al-Hasani al-Sarkhi (who leads an anti-Iranian offshoot of the Sadr Movement) and even the Army of Heaven. Among their primary targets is the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, led by cleric Abdul Aziz al-Hakim. ISCI was formed by Iraqi expatriates at the suggestion of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1982 in Iran and long received money and training from Tehran. ISCI dominates the provincial governments of most southern Shiite provinces, to the annoyance of local Iraqi Shiites unconnected to them or Iran, who feel excluded from patronage. (The petition may even be a way of extracting more patronage from Iran and ISCI).

No doubt our own American "Army of Heaven" will wax dreamy-eyed about these Iraqi nativists working against Iranian influence. I wouldn't get so excited about it if I were they. Rural sectarian Shiism might not look so attractive in power.

Reuters reports political violence for Friday, including an attack by guerrillas on Mosul police.

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Sadrists: Will Purge Mahdi Army
Reject Iranian Troops for Iraq
Demand Election Law Reform

The USG Open Source Center translates an article from the Iraqi newspaper "Ilaf," on planned housekeeping inside the Sadr Movement, in which leaders plan to purge hundreds of alleged rogue elements from the paramilitary Mahdi Army. Sadrist leader Baha' al-A'raji also called for electoral reform and rejected an Iranian plan to have Iranian troops replace American ones in Iraq. (The Sadrists are Iraqi nativists and usually have bad to indifferent relations with Iran). Excerpts below (emphases added):


'Al-Sadr Trend MP on Plans To 'Expel Hundreds From Al-Mahdi Army,' Iranian Role
Report on interview with Iraqi MP Baha al-A'raji, a leader in the Al-Sadr Trend, by Usamah Mahdi, from London; place, date not given: "Iraqi MP Baha al-A'raji, Leader in Al-Sadr Trend, Tells Ilaf: We Will Expel Hundreds From Al-Mahdi Army, And We Reject Sending Iranian Forces"
Ilaf WWW-Text
Friday, November 23, 2007 . . .

Iraqi MP Baha al-A'raji, a leader in the Al-Sadr Trend, led by Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr, has announced that preparations are under way to expel hundreds of the offending members of Al-Mahdi Army. He said that the Trend supports dissolving the Council of Representatives and will work for achieving this. He noted that a national plan about the Iraqi situation is being prepared. He strongly rejected sending Iranian forces to Iraq to replace the Multinational Forces. Al-A'raji, who is chairman of the Legal Committee at the Council of Representatives, made these remarks in an interview with Ilaf.

On the Al-Sadr Trend's withdrawal of its six ministers from the government, he said that the cabinet, in its current composition, was imposed on Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki because of the sectarian and partisan allotment of shares and that the Iraqi people has paid the price for this. He added that the Trend has authorized Al-Maliki to appoint technocratic and independent ministers instead of its withdrawing ministers, away from sectarianism. . .

Effectiveness of Agreement Between Al-Sadr Trend and Supreme Council

On the effectiveness of the agreement signed between the Al-Sadr Trend and the (Iraqi) Islamic Supreme Council (IISC) [ed. note: IC calls it the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq with the acronym ISCI, in accordance with the organization's own preference] in ending the clashes between the armed men of the two sides, Al-A'raji said that this depends on the seriousness of the two sides because it was a Sharia-based, religious agreement to prohibit the shedding of Iraqi blood, through forming joint committees in the governorates that seek to activate and implement it. He said that the governorates' councils are the main obstacle to activating this agreement. The Al-Sadr Trend did not participate in the previous elections of these councils. The law on these elections has led to the election of persons who are unable to provide the services needed by the citizens, and so the members of these councils have made big mistakes. While the membership of these councils is controlled by the IISC and the Badr Organization, the Al-Sadr Trend has masses in these governorates, and these masses demand achievements through providing essential services for the citizens. Therefore, tension and friction have occurred between the officials at the councils and the citizens, who demand their right to these essential, vital services. He noted that the elections law (on governorates' councils) should be amended so that election will be on an individual basis, and not on the basis of lists. The purpose of this is to elect specialists, engineers, and technicians, who are able to meet the needs of citizens, to the governorates' councils.

Elections of Governorates' Councils and Fears of Shiite-Shiite Fighting

On whether he believes that the upcoming elections of governorates' councils will lead to Shiite-Shiite fighting between the supporters of Al-Sadr Trend and the IISC, Al-A'raji said that in order to avert this fighting, it is important to issue the new law on the elections of governorates' councils to organize the electoral process. He added that it is possible to avert such fighting if this electoral process is conducted on a legal basis. He, however, warned that the situation will become tense if the elections are held based on the old law. Hence, the danger of closed election lists and the need for open lists. Al-A'raji added that he himself was elected member of the Council of Representatives for the southern governorate of Dhi Qar because of the closed lists, although he has only visited this governorate two times in his lifetime and after he was elected.

Restructuring Al-Mahdi Army and Expelling Hundreds of Its Members

In reply to a question about the measures that have been taken to implement Al-Sadr's decision restructuring Al-Mahdi Army, the leader in the Al-Sadr Trend noted that the organization of this army is not subject to records or documents. Therefore, some (political) parties and external sides, including the intelligence services of many countries, have pushed many persons to join this army and engage in practices that offend it. He said that this army is ideological and it pursues a national Islamic line. However, the practices of some of its members are inconsistent with this line. Hence, Al-Sadr's decision freezing the army in order to give its leaders the chance to closely examine the actions of those (members). He said that the Trend has formed committees, which are currently examining the practices of many of the offending members. The committees will issue lists of hundreds of the army members who will be expelled. He noted that these offending members constitute a strong line, have extensions, and receive internal and external assistance, in which some neighboring countries, which do not want anything for the good of Iraq, are involved.

On the number of the members of Al-Mahdi Army, he said that there is no exact figure because it is not a regular army and it does not have records that document the number of its members. He, however, noted that around 60 percent of males in the southern governorates, who are aged between 18-40 years, are members in Al-Mahdi Army.

Iran and Its Armament Ties With Al-Mahdi Army

In reply to a question about the armament relationship between Iran and Al-Mahdi Army, supplying it with (armor-) piercing explosives, and recruiting a number of its members, Al-A'raji stressed that there is no relationship between the Sadrist line and Iran. He said that the proof of this is that there is an ideological disagreement between martyr Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr, father of Muqtada, and the religious authority and scholars in Iran. He noted that this disagreement is documented through the fatwas (religious rulings) issued by the two sides.

He said that Iran is a neighboring and Muslim country and Al-Sadr Trend is a religious line. Hence, the closeness between the two sides. However, the Trend rejects any action, which harms Iraq and helps fragment it, by any country. He pointed out that the problem in Iraq is the Iranian-US conflict, since Iran is afraid of the Americans after they became its neighbors through the presence of their forces in Iraq in a way that shifts the conflict of the two sides to Iraq. He added that amidst this conflict, the Iranians may have managed to recruit offending members of Al-Mahdi Army and armed them to use them in armed operations against the Americans.

Al-Sadr Trend's Position on Constitutional Article 140 on Kirkuk

On Al-Sadr Trend's position on the non- implementation of Article 140 of the Constitution on Kirkuk, given that the fixed period for this will expire at the end of this year, Al-A'raji said that this article is constitutional and it should be handled accordingly and away from political stands. He, however, noted that what is happening now is the opposite. The political forces are acting toward this article based on a nationalist and political principle, and this is a big mistake. He noted that this article was based on three foundations; namely, normalization, census, and referendum. If the first two are implemented in a legal and constitutional manner, there is no objection to holding the referendum. Otherwise, the Trend will have reservations.

On Al-Sadr Trend's position on annexing Kirkuk to the Kurdistan Region, Al-A'raji said that the Trend believes that the Iraqis are the ones who decide this. He added that if the first two steps (normalization and census) are legal, the referendum (result) will run counter to all expectations, without explaining what he means by this.

Al-Sadr Trend's Position on Dissolving Parliament

On Al-Sadr Trend's position on what was raised recently at a session of the Council (of Representatives) about dissolving it, Al-A'raji said that the idea of dissolving it is good, provided that it will be preceded by enacting a new elections law, which can correct the mistakes of the political process. He added that some parties reject dissolving the parliament, but the Trend will continue to demand dissolving it.

The Blocs Withdrawing From the Government and Forming Unified Front

In reply to a question about whether the political blocs, which have withdrawn from the government, plan to form a unified front, the leader in the Al-Sadr Trend said: Yes, there are plans to form an opposition front or group. There are several plans in this respect.

He said that the Trend will present a national plan before the end of next month. This plan is currently under study by the leader of the Trend, Muqtada al-Sadr, and his assistants. The plan stresses the need to form Iraqi governments away from sectarian or partisan allotment of shares. It also stresses the need to enforce many articles of the constitution and form committees among the political forces that work for building establishments for the state. He said that the plan focuses on the need to achieve openness on the Arab and regional countries. He noted that Iraq is made up of a Shiite majority in the middle of a Sunni environment, which is afraid of ruling it by the Shiites. Therefore, it is important to open up to this environment, reassure it, and acquaint it with the truth of the Shiites and that they are Arabs, and not Persians, as some people describe them.

On the date of announcing this national plan, Al-A'raji said that it will be announced before the end of next month from the Council of Representatives or from Al-Najaf, where the headquarters of Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr, leader of the Trend, are located.

Asked if forming a non-sectarian or non-partisan government, as stipulated in the plan, means changing the current government, Al-A'raji said that it does not necessarily mean this, but it is possible to reshuffle this government and appoint competent, independent ministers, who are not affiliated with parties.

Rejecting Iranian Proposal on Replacing the Foreign Forces With Iranian and Arab Forces

In reply to a question about the Trend's position on the Iranian Government's proposal for replacing the Multinational Forces in Iraq with Iranian and Arab forces, including Syrian forces, Baha al-A'raji, a leader in the Al-Sadr Trend, said that the Trend wants a free Iraq. Consequently, it rejects occupation, just as it rejects interference in the affairs of Iraq by any country, even if it is close to the Trend's inclinations concerning the Iraqi issue. He added that implementing the Iranian proposal will make the fire in Iraq more intense than it is now, because the Iranians will have an important role in a certain place and the Syrians will have an important role in another place, and the fighting will be fiercer and more harmful. He said that it is important to seek to liberate Iraq and run its affairs by the Iraqis themselves; therefore, "we do not support the Iranian call at all." '

(Description of Source: London Ilaf WWW-Text in Arabic -- London Internet daily providing independent coverage of Arab and international issues. URL: Elaph.com)

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Friday, November 23, 2007

Dozens Killed in Bombings, Clashes
3 Mn. Iranian Pilgrims Expected
41% of Jihadis are Saudis

Guerrillas detonated a bomb in a Baghdad pet market on Friday morning at 9 am, killing at least 13 persons and wounding others.

Two important gunbattles were fought in Iraq on Thursday, one southwest of Baghdad and one in the volatile Diyala Province east of Baghdad. CNN alleges that Salafi Jihadis of the "Islamic State of Iraq" organization attacked members of the local tribal "Awakening Council" at Hor Rajab southwest of the capital, killing 15 and wounding 8, without apparently losing any dead themselves. Hor Rajab was the site of a massacre on October 7 of Sunni Arabs by invading Shiite Mahdi Army militiamen.

Al-Hayat writes in Arabic that the attackers killed 3 Iraqi troops at Hor Rajab, and wounded 3 others. They also took away from the troops one of their Hummers. They then attacked the HQ of the Awakening Council, killing several tribesmen there. An eyewitness told al-Hayat that there were dozens of gunmen (apparently about 100 in all), and that they were dressed in the uniforms of Iraqi troops. He alleged that the invaders were firing indiscriminately.

The tribal Awakening Council had kicked the Islamic State of Iraq out of Hor Rajab, which had served as a regional outpost for the organization, last month. Some 4,000 families had moved back to the town as a result. When a mass grave was discovered, perpetrated by the Islamic State, locals had flocked there to attempt to identify their loved ones. The dead turned out to be members of the Awakening Council who had lost battles with the Islamic State last September.

The Islamic State then moved out to the rural areas around the town, where it continues to receive support from the Jubour and Al-Bu-'Aytha tribespeople in the area. On Wednesday, the Islamic State of Iraq (Southern Branch) had distributed broadsheets in the village, warning that they would violently punish the Awakening Council members for collaborating with the Americans.

In Diyala province, at the village of Qali'ah north of Baquba, Islamic State in Iraq guerrillas attacked Shiites of the al-`Anbakiya tribe but were fought off by the local tribesmen. They killed 8 Sunni fighters and lost three men, all irregulars. (They are said to have been backed by local Iraqi army troops, though it is suspicious that none of the latter was killed, only the villagers.) Qali'ah is mostly Shiite but is surrounded by Sunni villages under the influence of the Islamic State in Iraq.

Elsewhere, Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that authorities in Diwaniya southeast of Baghdad distributed broadsheets to the public containing confessions of members of the local Mahdi Army militia to having committed murders and kidnappings. a spokesman for the Sadr Movement in the city denounced the material as libellous and attributed it to the Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq (ISCI), describing the broadsheets as a propaganda campaign against the Sadrists. He said the so-called confessions were coerced by torture.

Iran is negotiating with Iraqi authorities to increase the number of pilgrims coming to Shiite shrines in Iraq from the present 500,000 to 2 or 3 million. You know, if 500,000 Iranians are passing through Iraq every year, and the US has never captured any of them under arms, then Iran can't possibly be the source of many of Iraq's problems. In fact, without the pilgrim revenue, Najaf and Karbala and Kadhimiya in Baghdad would be far, far poorer.

A treasure trove of guerrilla documents, according to the NYT, shows that 41% of the foreign jihadis in Iraq come from Saudi Arabia, which is also a major source of funding for them. Another big group comes from Libya, with Yemenis the third largest cohort. There were none from Lebanon, despite constant US accusations of Hizbullah involvement. Of the some 25,000 alleged insurgents in US custody in Iraq, only 390 are foreigners. 4/5s of the Iraqis and nearly all the foreigners are Sunni Arabs. (The US appears to have never captured a Shiite Iranian fighter in Iraq.) The statistics raise the question of why US military officials are always focusing on Iran and Hizbullah so much, when they clearly are not very much of the problem, while never, ever, mentioning the Saudi issue. The Guardian has more.

Iraqi army troops have reportedly surrounded the Kurdish Mahmur camp near the border with Turkey, with the aim of cutting it off from guerrillas of the Turkish Workers Party (PKK).

Cholera is still stalking Iraq with 80 new cases reported and outbreaks in the slums of East Baghdad.

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