Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Friday, November 23, 2007

Dozens Killed in Bombings, Clashes
3 Mn. Iranian Pilgrims Expected
41% of Jihadis are Saudis

Guerrillas detonated a bomb in a Baghdad pet market on Friday morning at 9 am, killing at least 13 persons and wounding others.

Two important gunbattles were fought in Iraq on Thursday, one southwest of Baghdad and one in the volatile Diyala Province east of Baghdad. CNN alleges that Salafi Jihadis of the "Islamic State of Iraq" organization attacked members of the local tribal "Awakening Council" at Hor Rajab southwest of the capital, killing 15 and wounding 8, without apparently losing any dead themselves. Hor Rajab was the site of a massacre on October 7 of Sunni Arabs by invading Shiite Mahdi Army militiamen.

Al-Hayat writes in Arabic that the attackers killed 3 Iraqi troops at Hor Rajab, and wounded 3 others. They also took away from the troops one of their Hummers. They then attacked the HQ of the Awakening Council, killing several tribesmen there. An eyewitness told al-Hayat that there were dozens of gunmen (apparently about 100 in all), and that they were dressed in the uniforms of Iraqi troops. He alleged that the invaders were firing indiscriminately.

The tribal Awakening Council had kicked the Islamic State of Iraq out of Hor Rajab, which had served as a regional outpost for the organization, last month. Some 4,000 families had moved back to the town as a result. When a mass grave was discovered, perpetrated by the Islamic State, locals had flocked there to attempt to identify their loved ones. The dead turned out to be members of the Awakening Council who had lost battles with the Islamic State last September.

The Islamic State then moved out to the rural areas around the town, where it continues to receive support from the Jubour and Al-Bu-'Aytha tribespeople in the area. On Wednesday, the Islamic State of Iraq (Southern Branch) had distributed broadsheets in the village, warning that they would violently punish the Awakening Council members for collaborating with the Americans.

In Diyala province, at the village of Qali'ah north of Baquba, Islamic State in Iraq guerrillas attacked Shiites of the al-`Anbakiya tribe but were fought off by the local tribesmen. They killed 8 Sunni fighters and lost three men, all irregulars. (They are said to have been backed by local Iraqi army troops, though it is suspicious that none of the latter was killed, only the villagers.) Qali'ah is mostly Shiite but is surrounded by Sunni villages under the influence of the Islamic State in Iraq.

Elsewhere, Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that authorities in Diwaniya southeast of Baghdad distributed broadsheets to the public containing confessions of members of the local Mahdi Army militia to having committed murders and kidnappings. a spokesman for the Sadr Movement in the city denounced the material as libellous and attributed it to the Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq (ISCI), describing the broadsheets as a propaganda campaign against the Sadrists. He said the so-called confessions were coerced by torture.

Iran is negotiating with Iraqi authorities to increase the number of pilgrims coming to Shiite shrines in Iraq from the present 500,000 to 2 or 3 million. You know, if 500,000 Iranians are passing through Iraq every year, and the US has never captured any of them under arms, then Iran can't possibly be the source of many of Iraq's problems. In fact, without the pilgrim revenue, Najaf and Karbala and Kadhimiya in Baghdad would be far, far poorer.

A treasure trove of guerrilla documents, according to the NYT, shows that 41% of the foreign jihadis in Iraq come from Saudi Arabia, which is also a major source of funding for them. Another big group comes from Libya, with Yemenis the third largest cohort. There were none from Lebanon, despite constant US accusations of Hizbullah involvement. Of the some 25,000 alleged insurgents in US custody in Iraq, only 390 are foreigners. 4/5s of the Iraqis and nearly all the foreigners are Sunni Arabs. (The US appears to have never captured a Shiite Iranian fighter in Iraq.) The statistics raise the question of why US military officials are always focusing on Iran and Hizbullah so much, when they clearly are not very much of the problem, while never, ever, mentioning the Saudi issue. The Guardian has more.

Iraqi army troops have reportedly surrounded the Kurdish Mahmur camp near the border with Turkey, with the aim of cutting it off from guerrillas of the Turkish Workers Party (PKK).

Cholera is still stalking Iraq with 80 new cases reported and outbreaks in the slums of East Baghdad.

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11 Comments:

At 4:12 AM, Blogger David Seaton's Newslinks said...

It might be interesting to analyze the "everything is getting better in Iraq" message bearers.

 
At 8:12 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"You know, if 500,000 Iranians are passing through Iraq every year, and the US has never captured any of them under arms, then Iran can't possibly be the source of many of Iraq's problems."

Professor Cole, this leap to a conclusion needs to be explained. Just because there are lots of Iranians coming in without AK47s slung over the shoulders doesn't mean that Iran is not causing problems in Iraq. Are some of these 500,000 smuggling weapons to certain factions? I don't know, but weapons smugglers probably aren't advertising their wares or the source. To jump from this single bit of evidence to "Iran can't possibly be the source of many of Iraq's problems" is a stretch.

For an obvious parallel, there are plenty of places in the world where US weapons sales cause major problems without any Americans actually being under arms.

 
At 10:54 AM, Blogger Mark Pyruz said...

Two to three million pilgrims would be, in itself, a very significant source of Iranian power projected into Iraq.

 
At 11:27 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Isn't it amazing to consider that the largest quasi-democracy in the Middle East, Iran, which apparently has had little uninvited involvement in Iraq, is supposedly our Great Enemy, potentially worthy of nuclear annihilation, while the people attacking us in Iraq and on 911 have come largely from our supposed great friend, Saudi Arabia, which is currently involved in the highly enlightened act of severely punishing a woman for the crime of being raped, and our other two greatest allies in the region, Pakistan and Egypt, are dictatorships, Pakistan currently fighting Burma for Nobel Prize for Dictatorship, and a third great ally, Turkey, is currently attacking Iraq and our greatest ally of all, Israel, is NEVER NOT ATTACKIING SOMEONE, and is constantly threatening (it almost seems) whomever it is not attacking!!

How much more insane can our policy get?

 
At 1:51 PM, Blogger nadia said...

Wow, so I guess that ridiculous security fence the Saudis built on their Iraqi border only works on Iraqis? Didn't they also build a fence on the Yemeni border as well? So how exactly are Yemeni fighters getting in Iraq?

 
At 4:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Iranians tread a thin line. They actually want to prove to the USA that they are causing trouble in Iraq! If not, they have nothing to offer on the negotiating table. But too much interference, and causing the death of Americans in particular, can push the Americans to exacting revenge.

The Iranians do not need to send armed Iranians, they have plenty of Iraqis to pick from, including some of the the main Shiia militias and splinter groups. These are far more effective than sending Iranians anyway. They know the landscape, and melt easily with the population.

There is also a large group of people of Iranian origin living in Iraq. They are called "taba'iya" because they didn't have Iraqi nationality. Saddam actually kicked them out to Iran when relations soured.

After the fall of Iraq in 2003, many returned, and it is rumoured that Ja'fari (PM in 2005) granted nationality papers like confetti to them and to purely Iranian Revolutionary Guards. The practice has likely continued with Maliki who is desperate to please Iran.

 
At 6:30 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It has very recently come to my attention that to say I love you to a "stranger", places you in the category of: Drunk.

At that risk, I wish to say, I LOVE YOU JUAN COLE.

 
At 12:12 AM, Blogger Niemand said...

What about the biggest group of foreign terrorists in Iraq, namely the US army?

Or the terrorist group with the most violent history, the British army?

Why the focus on minor terrorist organizations like AlQa'eda?

 
At 1:13 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Will everyone just shut up! I've got some Christmas shopping to do! You can't imagine the heartbreak my children will experience if they don't get what they want. All this war news is such a nuisance. Why is it even on the front page? It has nothing to do with us. Why doesn't Bush do a better job of keeping this distant violence quiet. That's what he was elected to do, and he should focus on why the digital picture frames that were advertised at Target were sold out before I even got there. Where are this country's priorities!? Mitt Romney wouldn't let this happen. He's so handsome. And why is Obama bin Laden allowed to run for president? And isn;t that Hilary lady a lady? Presidents can't be ladies can they? No more than negroes can, right?

 
At 2:35 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

So, 41% of the Jihadis are Saudis! That is quite a few. All from the Saudi Arabia so loved and coddled by the Bush Familia. One would think if 41% of the TERRORISTS in Iraq are from Saudi Arabia and we are in Iraq to fight terrorism, then we should also be fighting terrorists or Jihadists in Saudi Arabia. BUT, we are NOT. Of course, Dubya would proclain loudly that the Saudis are fighting terrorism. Sure they are. Bush proclaims loudly that we are fighting in Iraq to prevent another 9/11. BUT, most of the 9/11terrorists were from Saudi Arabia. All of the Republican contenders for the throne mimic Bush to perfection on this issue. Could it have a little something to do with all of those Saudi oil wells? The reason why we tread ever so lightly on the issue of terrorists and Saudi Arabia? Oil, do I smell oil? Money? Hypocrisy? Not that I am promoting attacking Saudi Arabia. I think the U.S. would do well to exit the Middle East and quit meddling and lighting fires.Still, hypocrisy is an ugly trait. It defines the Republican Party.

 
At 4:47 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Betrayed time and again Americans have more than good reason to question the administration's claims. After the countless times the administration fed the public falsified and fabricated information makes it rather inconceivable to think anything the administration tells us is credible. Yet even with increasing evidence to the contrary many remain unwilling to question their assertions of Iranian influence in Iraq.

Unaware, Americans will soon be exposed to a campaign that is nothing more than public relations. Far right wing think tanks, neocon groups and AIPAC are testing how to best present a belli-causus that will effectively convince the public to support another military attack.

Then armed with "talking points" the so-called experts will overwhelmingly appear on cable and TV news programmes to purport Iran is a danger and must be destroyed.

Instead of American military aggression in the Middle-East it would be much wiser and more productive to lead the region's leaders toward a nuclear-free zone including Israel, too. Otherwise a nuclear arms race will intensify and expand.

Since military aggression proved counter-productive why make an already volatile situation worse? With Turkey's military at the northern border, an unstable Pakistan and other developments in the Middle-East another US military incursion could easily destabilize the entire region.

Equally important any decision made based on information short of discussing the scenarios likely to occur from an attack on Iran including the serious danger it puts American troops in and what costs to world at large cannot be justified. Continuing to make the same decisions expecting different results is insanity. Americans need to know the facts.

Propaganda is no substitute for fact. War is no substitute for diplomacy. Without facts there is no diplomacy. Using propaganda to wage war is immoral.

Americans can either be fooled into falling for it again or apply logic and reason before the situation spirals out of control. The price is too high to ignore.

 

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