When did McCain become a Neocon?
Shiite MPs demand SOFA Renegotiation
Jonathan Landay carefully traces John McCain's transformation from pragmatist to Neoconservative warmonger, which took place while Bush was still just a Texas politician. He rather amusingly quotes Max Boot claiming that McCain is not a warmonger. I mean, in 2003 Boot acknowledged that the US killed thousands of Filipino civilians in the early 20th century in order to colonize the Philippines, and urged that if necessary the Bush administration kill just as many Iraqis. I asked at the time if people could be tried for thought-war-crimes. So asking Boot if someone is a warmonger is rich.
McClatchy argues that while most political endorsements are not very influential, Powell's endorsement of Obama is likely to have a significant impact.
Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, led by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, has published a detailed critique of the draft security agreement proposed by the government of Nuri al-Maliki with the United States. One unnamed ISCI parliamentarian called the agreement "dead on arrival." If al-Maliki cannot get the support for it of ISCI, his chief partner in parliament, then the agreement cannot be passed. Two many other political movements, including most Sunnis and Sadrists, oppose it for it to succeed in the absence of ISCI support. ISCI wants to renegotiate key points, but it is unlikely that the the Bush administration has the patience to do so.
Iran opposes the draft agreement, and ISCI is very close to the ayatollahs in Tehran.
The agreement likely cannot pass parliament. If it does pass, it is unlikely to pass by January 1, when the old UN mandate for the Multi-National Forces in Iraq runs out. Without such a mandate or a bilateral agreement, US troops in Iraq could be tried for war crimes even for ordinary military operations. If Iraq did go back to the UN for an extension of its mandate, it turns out that Russia would support an extension. Some observers, including Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, had wondered whether the US reaction to the Georgia police action had so soured Russia on Washington that Moscow would play spoiler on the UNSC with regard to Iraq. Not so, apparently.
Scott Peterson on the US mediation between Kurds and Arabs at Khanaqin, where there have been disputes between the Kurds and the al-Maliki government.
The Sunni insurgency is still active in al-Anbar province.
The LAT thinks falling oil prices may force Iraqis to make fruitful compromises, as between Arabs and Kurds over Kirkuk.
McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Monday:
' Baghdad
- A roadside bomb detonated in Fudhailiyah neighborhood (east Baghdad). One person was killed and seven others were wounded. - A roadside bomb detonated in Al-Rubayee street in Zayuna neighborhood. Two people were injured.
- A roadside bomb detonated on Palestine Street (east Baghdad) targeting a police patrol. Four people were injured including one policeman.
- One dead body was found today in Al-Ghadeer in the New Baghdad neighborhood in eastern Baghdad.
Diyala
- Police found one dead body in Buhriz (south Baquba).
- Police arrested three Sahwa members in Mustafa neighborhood in Baquba, according to arrest warrants
- Police killed a civilian by mistake when they raided Muqdadiyah town (north east of Baquba) at noon.
- Police killed three gunmen in Mandli town (east of Baquba) in clashes took place at the town.
- Iraqi army killed two Qaeda members, one was a leader, in Al-Khulis village in Buhriz(south of Baquba).
- A roadside bomb targeted a civilian contractor in Khanaqeen which was planted near his house. The contractor was killed at once.
Mosul
- Gunmen assassinated a member of the Kurdistan Democratic party (KDP) in Sahin Al-Sham in Mosul.
- A sniper killed a policeman in Borsa neighborhood in Mosul when he stopped near one of the check points in the area.
- A roadside bomb targeted a civilian car in Dhibat neighborhood in Mosul city. Six people were injured from one family. . .'
Labels: Iraq
posted by Juan Cole @ 10/21/2008 12:22:00 AM
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8 Comments:
The idea that Russia would block a UN extension is part of the US scare tactics, and Russia has torpedoed that.
The Americans have been talking to individual factions, not to the Iraqi state! They have been telling the Green Zone gangs that:
1) The US would not be able to protect them without a legal cover which can only be provided by a bilateral deal.
2) Plan B is to engineer a US backed coup d'état. The Shiites get the hint that a Sunni general will be ruling them, and the Sunnis the reverse.
Being micro-managed by Bush, the negotiation plot has been infantile. The GZ gangs actually talk to each other a lot, and this is literally a matter of life and death to them. Moreover, no one trusts the Americans anyway.
The Sunni block in parliament has also refused to accept the draft by the way saying that it is too ambiguous, and does not oblige the USA to defend Iraq against a foriegn attack.
juan cole said: "Some observers, including Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, had wondered whether the US reaction to the Georgia police action had so soured Russia on Washington that Moscow would play spoiler on the UNSC with regard to Iraq. Not so, apparently."
perhaps moscow believes that tensions between itself and washington might be more manageable as long as the u.s. has one foot still mired in the sandpits of mesopotamia?
Actually, what McCain's told the Kansas audience four years before the war was simply the same as the Clinton administration's policy.
Clinton also made false WMD allegation, and he used them as a pretext to bring about regime change in Iraq through genocidal sanctions.
All indications are that Obama's foreign policy will be Clintonesque.
Behnam
http://angryarab.blogspot.com/2008/10/goons-of-occupation-sheik-jassim-as-his.html
October 21, 2008
The goons of occupation: " 'Sheik Jassim,' as his tribesmen call Sweidawi, is among a new generation of tribal leaders asserting influence across Sunni areas. They have won their respect by fighting Sunni insurgents of the al-Qaeda in Iraq group. With American money and support, they have brought a fragile order to Anbar province, once Iraq's most violent theater, accomplishing in months what the U.S. military could not do in years." *
* http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/20/AR2008102003538.html
-- As'ad AbuKhalil
The whole ITAR-TASS item needs to be seen:
"Russia will support Iraq’s request to the U.N. Security Council for an extension of the international military presence in that country, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Monday.
“There are international troops in Iraq in accordance with a U.N. Security Council mandate,” Larvov said.
“If the government of Iraq asks for the mandate of these troops to be extended, Russia will certainly support it,” he said.
"Lavrov is accompanying Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on a visit to Armenia.
“We are confident that it would be wrong to speak about a complete and immediate withdrawal of all foreign troops from Iraq now,” Lavrov said. “It is important to determine the timeframe for the start of such withdrawal, and this is the position of the Iraqi government.”
“We support the government of Iraq as far as the need to ensure the sovereignty of Iraq on its own territory is concerned. And this also concerns who will have the jurisdiction over foreign troops in Iraq,” the minister said."
Note how Medvedev's position bolster's Russia's line regarding its presence in Georgia and its neighbors. He would also seem to imply that a timetable be incorporated into any further UN figleaf.
I think Maliki is more clever than people give credit; same with Sistani. Both know very well that any SOFA will be rejected that doesn't give Iraq control over the occupiers. So, my original presumption about Maliki running out the clock still stands: 71 days to go.
As for the falling oil price hurting Iraq and Iraqi factions, the budget is based on $80 oil, which is far more likely than $60, as the number is an average price for the whole of next year. Anecdotal evidence is already showing increasing consumption in the US as the average gas price is now $2.889. The oil price volitility we witnessed this year is clearly due to falling net oil exorts (see graph at page bottom) taking place during increasing demand. The increasing demand component was curtailed when China cut its useage due to the Olympics, which was then closely followed by the US induced credit/banking crisis, all of which are temporary events. Right now, if I'm dependent on oil and its products for my company (think airlines, shipping and trucking), I'm buying as many futures contracts at these much reduced prices as I can afford. IMO, come Spring, such an opportunity will be no more.
Russia won't play the spoiler? Maybe they figure it does the US more harm to stay in Iraq than to leave!
The Iraqi Cabinet has formally and unanimously rejected the draft SOFA, calling for major changes.
Interestingly, Allawi (a Chalabi like ex-CIA man) has decried that the English and Arabic versions do not match up and that ambiguity is rife.
Bush must be fuming, but there is little he can do. May be he should pray to God to punish Iraq with seven years of biblical calamities.
Jonathan Landay's article, naturally enough, links to the McCain-Paliin website's page on "National Security", which (strangely enough) talks a lot about "advanced weapons systems" and "increasing the size of the Army and Marines". Not a whole lot in there about solving the poverty, joblessness, and humiliation that incite people to strike out violently. (Of course there are also those who lose loved ones to "collateral damage", but let's not go too far afield here.)
But I got bitterest laugh out of the photo illustrating the page: A dramatic photo of an F-14 Tomcat fighter, Tom Cruise's mount in Top Gun, symbol of modern American technology and resolve.
Except it isn't. It's obsolete. None remain in service -- the last handful of "Turkeys" were retired earlier this year.
Symbolize much, there, Senator?
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