Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Sunday, May 31, 2009

40 Taliban Killed in Waziristan;
Iran Protests to Pakistan on Mosque Bombing

The Pakistani military claims to have completely taken over the city of Mingora, the largest in Swat, and says that the campaign in Malakand Division will be completed within three days.

ITN has video:



This upload from CCTV gives some of the Pakistani military's press conference:



There is an urgent need for the fighting to end soon, so that people can return to their homes and aid can reach the dispossessed. The monsoon, or rainy season, is coming, and with impromptu rivulets springing up, there will be danger of cholera and other water-borne diseases among the refugees living in tent cities with no proper sewage.

Aljazeera English reports on the condition of the 3000 Sikhs who have been displaced from Swat by the fighting.



There is speculation that the Pakistani military may turn next to Taliban strongholds in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. The Taliban are not sitting on their hands waiting. They attacked a government military outpost in South Waziristan on Saturday. The military claims to have driven them off and to have killed 40 of them in the process.

Meanwhile, trouble is brewing to the west. Iran summoned Pakistan's ambassador over evidence that a Sunni rebel group, Jundullah, was responsible for bombing a Shiite mosque in Zahidan. Zahidan is largely Baluch in ethnicity, not Persian, and most Baluch are Sunnis. They often chafe under Shiite rule. The small province of Sistan and Baluchistan has a population of 2.2 million (Iran's population is over 70 million), and is one of the poorest and least developed in the country. Small separatist groups, which seek safe haven on the Pakistan side of the border, have operated for some time.

Iranian leaders are hinting that they think the United States was behind the mosque bombing.

Aljazeera English has video on the mosque bombing:



Iranian fears of US meddling in its ethnic relations are not completely unfounded. Representative Jane Harman (D-Cal) has called for the break-up of Iran, apparently influenced by the thinking of Israeli hawks on this issue. Harman has been accused of trying to get the chairmanship of the House Intelligence Committee by intervening to stop the prosecution of two men accused of espionage on behalf of Israel, for which she was to be rewarded by wealthy backers of the Israel lobbies.

Pakistan itself has a problem with its Baluch minority, which feels it does not get its fair share of the country's resources. The government is pledging more aid.

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New Template

Trying it on for size. Provided free by this site.

The Web is a moving target. My old template started displaying oddly to some people, with a purple patch on the text. I hadn't changed the code, so it means that some CSS command started being interpreted differently by browsers. I tried fixing it manually, and it worked for my browsers, but apparently not for others'. My fear is that the changed interpretation is an update and as more people's browsers get updated,the problem will become more widespread.

I don't have as much time as I would like for CSS or for tinkering with my weblog, which is after all a pretty important part of my life. Finding and modifying this one knocked me out of meeting a writing deadline. Hope it fixes the problem for the moment.

Those of you who say you don't like the type size are being silly. Webmasters no longer really control the look of their pages, since you can set the default font size you like in your browser options. I have poor eyesight so I set mine to 14 points rather than 12. You can even do 16. The template I chose is scalable, so aside from having to scroll more, you'll be all right if you size up. Most browsers nowadays also let you size up the font by pressing CONTROL and the plus sign.

You can also set the font type in your browser. Many experts advise sans serif fonts for the Web,which is what this template uses. But if you like Sabon Roman, knock yourself out.

I kept basically the same format because readers had said the two-column display read well on their phones, unlike three columns. Hope you like it. You'll let me know if not.

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Saturday, May 30, 2009

US Soldier Killed Near Mosul;
Maliki Gives up on Saudis

An Iraqi guerrilla killed a US soldier with a grenade near Mosul on Friday, bringing the May total for deaths of US military personnel to 22, the highest since September (though only about half the deaths in May were from direct combat).

In Baquba, a roadside bomb killed 6 civilians.

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki of Iraq says that he is tired of reaching out to the Saudi government and receiving no positive response. Al-Maliki's Da'wa Party launched protests in Europe and Iraq against Wahhabism (the Saudi state religion) in 2006, and the Saudis blame al-Maliki.

Iraqi parliamentary elections, originally scheduled for December, won't be held until January 30, 2010, according to AP.

In other news, a spokesman for the Sadr Movement said Friday that Sayyid Muqtada al-Sadr, their leader, wanted homosexuality as a practice eradicated, but forbade the vigilante killing of gays. He condemned religious militias that harass gays.

At the same time, al-Zaman writes in Arabic that Fatimah Mahdi al-Taliqani has launched a campaign against temporary marriage, which is allowed in Shiite law.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Friday:

' Nineveh

A fight developed between a group of Ayzidis and checkpoint personnel (Peshmerga, Kurd Forces) in the town of Sinjar, about 74 miles to the northwest of Mosul Thursday. Arrest warrants were issued by Friday morning and a force was sent to detain the Ayzidis. Armed confrontations broke out during the detention and six civilians were injured, three of them are critical including a 13 year old boy and three Ayzidis were detained.

-Two insurgents threw a grenade at an American patrol in Zinjili neighborhood in western Mosul on Friday. One civilian was wounded, Iraqi police said. Also one vehicle was burned. The U.S. military confirmed the incident in a statement saying that one American soldier was killed.

Diyala

Around 9:30 a.m. a booby trapped motorbike detonated near a butcher's shop owned by Sahwa leader of al Amin and Swamra neighborhoods, Khazaal al Samarrai in central Baquba on Friday. Al Samarrai was killed in the explosion and six others were wounded including four Sahwa members.

Around 1 p.m. a roadside bomb targeted civilians in a bus stop in the town of Khalis, about 9 miles to the north of Baquba at on Friday. One civilian was killed and three others were injured.

Around 1:30 p.m. a magnetic bomb targeted the poet Khalid al Saadi near the court house in Khalis, about 9 miles to the north of Baquba on Friday. The bomb was stuck to his car. All six people in the car including al Saadi were killed.

The house of a displaced Shiite family was blown up in Amin neighborhood, central Baquba at 3 p.m. Friday. The family has just repaired the house that was previously damaged and were about to return to their neighborhood.

Kirkuk

- A roadside bomb targeted the convoy of the 12th division commander of the Iraqi army the major general Abdul Ameer Al-Zaidi at Sufra village in western Kirkuk (about 34 miles west of Kirkuk). A source from the division confirmed the incident saying that several guards were wounded without further details. '


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Army Takes Peochar

The Pakistani military claims to have taken the village of Peochar and to have cleared it of militants. It was the headquarters of Mulla Fazlullah, a top leader of the Tehrik-i Taliban Pakistan.

The military also claimed to have taken most of the major city of Mingora, which had had 300,000 inhabitants or so before the military operation there, but which is now a ghost town. (See video below). These military claims cannot be confirmed by independent journalists because they are excluded from the war zone.

Despite the military's talk of having 'cleared' the Taliban from major centers, fierce fighting continued in Dir and neighboring areas. Meanwhile, Pakistan increased the bounty on the heads of the major insurgent leaders.

Some Pakistani observers believe that the Taliban turn to terrorism tactics could turn the public decisively against them.

Aljazeera English has video of the Pakistani army claiming complete conquest of Mingora.



Dawn reports that there are now 3 million internally displaced persons, victims of the Taliban and the large-scale military campaign against them in Malakand division.

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Friday, May 29, 2009

Bombings in Peshawar Kill 12;

The Tehrik-i Taliban Pakistan took further revenge on Thursday for the military campaign launched against it by the Pakistani military in the Swat Valley, by setting off bombs and ambushing police and security forces in the northwestern city of Peshawar, killing 12 and wounding 250. These attacks came on the heels of a major bombing in the eastern city of Lahore, a six hour train ride away, on Wednesday.

Rural, tribal Taliban leader Hakimullah Mahsud told Reuters before the Peshawar bombings, "We plan major attacks against government facilities in coming days and weeks . . . "

Peshawar (pop. 3 million) is the major city in the North-West Frontier Province, and on the way to Afghanistan via the Khyber Pass to its west. It is not a Taliban stronghold, and indeed its population mostly voted for a secular Pushtun-nationalist party in the Feb. 2008 elections. There is a strong divide between the new part of the city and the old. Thursday's attacks were in old centers like the Story Tellers' Bazaar (Qissah-Khwani Bazar).

There was also a Taliban attack elsewhere in the North-West Frontier Province in the small town of Dera Ismail Khan, which has a significant Shiite population, and which killed 2 persons. (Taliban are hyper-Sunni and hate Shiites, and there have been many assassinations and bombings in D.I. Khan in recent years).

Although some commentators are suggesting that Thursday's attacks show a new level of coordination by the Taliban, I disagree. There have been several highly sophisticated attacks on NATO warehouses and convoys in this region that deployed much more firepower and were more sophisticated in design.

The most sophisticated element in the recent violence is that the Taliban who struck Lahore obviously had excellent information about where the offices of the Inter-Services Intelligence were. That intelligence agency is in charge of Pakistani security and so must have been planning and supporting the current campaign against the Taliban. Hence the attack on its HQ on Wednesday morning.

Two other important points. The Taliban in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and some parts of the North-West Frontier Province are a small, rural social movement, but a social movement nevertheless. But the bombings in Lahore and Peshawar were mere terrorism. Terrorism is a sign of weakness, not of strength, and is an attempt to level the playing field by a group that is out-gunned and outnumbered. If the Taliban can be demoted to a mere terrorist organization, that is a major political victory for the Pakistani government.

While is is possible that the public will blame the government for stirring up so much trouble with the Swat campaign, it is also possible that the public will turn decisively on the Taliban. There are precedents for such loss of popularity. After the 1997 attack on innocent tourists in Luxor, Egypt, the Egyptian public turned against the Egyptian Islamic Jihad and the Islamic Grouping (al-Gama'a al-Islamiya), the two small terrorist groups that had committed many acts of violence in the 1970s and 1980s and had assassinated President Anwar el Sadat in 1981. EIJ declined into irrelevance in Egypt, and al-Gama'a al-Islamiya's leadership has renounced violence.

Likewise the attack by the Abu Musab al-Zarqawi group on tourist hotels in Amman, Jordan, in fall of 2005, turned the Jordanian public against Muslim radicalism. It turns out Jordanians were proud of their great hotels, and benefit from tourism, and they really dislike terrorism on their soil.

Still, residents of the North-West frontier Province who managed to return to Sultanwas and nearby cities are said to be furious at federal government for damaging their domiciles in the first place. This development is very bad news.

Meanwhile, the Pakistani government continued its campaign against Taliban elements in Swat. One thing that puzzles me is how small the casualty numbers are on a daily basis in the war zone.

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Thursday, May 28, 2009

Gingrich, Sotomayor and Hunting Giraffes

Republican poobah Newt Gingrich has lambasted Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor as a 'racist' because she implied that a Latina woman could empathize with certain situations as a judge better than a white male could, and so would come to sounder judgments.

Just so everyone remembers, this is Newt Gingrich's idea of the difference between the sexes:

' If combat means living in a ditch, females have biological problems staying in a ditch for 30 days because they get infections.... Males are biologically driven to go out and hunt giraffes.'


I rest Judge Sotomayor's case.

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US Soldier Killed;
Abu Ghraib Photos show Rape

Iraqi guerrillas deployed a roadside bomb to kill a US soldier in Baghdad on Wednesday. Guerrillas have killed at least 20 US troops in May, compared to only 9 last March.

The Daily Telegraph reveals that the unreleased photographs of prisoner abuse at Abu Ghraib include graphic depictions of rape, both of a female and of a male.

In the wake of the embarrassing resignation of the Trade Minister over charges of corruption, the al-Maliki government says it wants to issue 1,000 warrants for arrests of government officials over embezzlement. Some 33 officials are said to have already been detained.

AFP reports that the al-Maliki government will ask Turkey and Iran for help in making up the shortfall of water and electricity hitting Iraq this summer.

Iraq has begun exporting a bit of oil from its Kurdistan region, suggesting that longstanding disputes between the federal oil ministry and the Kurdistan regional Government are being put aside.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq for Wednesday:

' Baghdad

A roadside bomb targeted the motorcade of a high ranking official in Karrada, central Baghdad at 9 a.m. Wednesday injuring two civilians and damaging one civilian car.

A parked car bomb exploded in an open air marker in Abu Ghraib area just as a U.S. military convoy drove away, at around noon Wednesday. The explosion injured 15 civilians. The American army confirmed the attack saying that “A Multi-National Division-Baghdad Soldier died of combat-related injuries after an improvised explosive device detonated near a patrol in western Baghdad May 27”.

Nineveh

A roadside bomb targeted an Iraqi Army patrol in al Islah al Ziraai neighbourhood, western Mosul Tuesday killing one soldier.

A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in Shifaa neighbourhood, western Mosul Tuesday injuring two policemen.

- Gunmen opened fire at a man in Al-Dirkazliyah neighborhood in eastern Mosul on Wednesday. The man, who was a grocer, was killed at once.

- Gunmen riding a sedan car killed a civilian in Al-Intisar neighborhood in eastern Mosul on Wednesday.

- A roadside bomb targeted an Iraqi army patrol in Wadi Ighab (west of Mosul) on Wednesday. One person was wounded.'


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Pakistani Taliban Claim Lahore Bombing;
ISI Possible Target

The death toll in the Lahore bombing on Wednesday was announced to be 26, with 250 wounded.

Aljazeera English suggests that an Inter-Services Intelligence building may have been among the targets.



The Tehrik-i Taliban Pakistan (The Movement of Pakistani Taliban) , led by Baitullah Mahsud, has claimed the Lahore bombing as its own operation.

Pakistan has put a bounty on the head of such Taliban leaders, including Mawlana Fazlullah.

Meanwhile, Pakistani officials said Wednesday that the campaign to take over the city of Mingora, in which nearly 300 Pakistanis have been killed, is nearing a successful conclusion and that the city should be in government hands within 2 days.

Pakistani businesses, until recently thriving to the extent that Pakistan was being referred to as a new Asian tiger, have fallen on hard times. The military campaign in Swat has had negative effects, along with declining world demand.

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Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Lahore Bombing Kills at Least 30, Wounds 100

A car bomb exploded in the eastern Pakistani city of Lahore on Wednesday morning, killing at least 30 and wounding 100. The death toll could rise. The bomb targeted Pakistani security and intelligence offices, and likely was a Taliban response to the military campaign against them in the northwest.

Lahore is a quintessentially Punjabi city, and there is an ethnic dimension to the fighting against the largely Pushtun Taliban by the largely Punjabi national army.

Pushtun refugees from the northwest are said not to be welcome in Sindh and Punjab. Sindhis launched a strike on Monday to protest displaced Pushtuns coming into their province. The Muttahiddah Qaumi Movement (MQM) that organizes many of the Urdu-speakers in the southern port city of Karachi is secular and has a longstanding vendetta with immigrant Pushtun clans in the city. It also advocates keeping the Pushtun refugees in the northwest.

In a decision important to social peace within the Punjab, the Pakistani Supreme Court ruled that the Sharif brothers, leaders of the Muslim League-N, can now again hold high office. Punjab was roiled this spring by MLN supporters who both wanted a reinstatement of the Supreme Court that had been dismissed by the military dictatorship in 2007 and a return to provincial rule under the MLN with the Sharifs able to hold political office.

The Pakistani military maintained that its campaign against the Taliban in Malakand district was continuing on Wednesday.

Samina Ahmed asks if Pakistan can win the hearts and minds of the over a million Pakistani displaced persons who have fled the fighting in Swat. If not, the current operation could be sowing the seeds of future conflict in Pakistan.

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3 Killed, Including State Department Employee, Near Falluja

Guerrillas near Falluja targeted an American convoy with a roadside bomb late Monday, killing 3 and wounding 2. One of those killed was State Department employee Terrence Barnich.

Strongly Sunni Arab al-Anbar Province was the most violent place in Iraq three years ago, and still witnesses guerrilla activity against US and Iraqi government targets.

The British are now out of Iraq. This withdrawal leaves the US as the only country with substantial numbers of combat troops operating in Iraq.

Gen. Casey says that the US military is ready to remain in Iraq another 10 years as a fighting force. The fact is that some US forces, including especially the Air Force, may well be in Iraq that long. But I don't think the Iraqis will put up with large infantry units patrolling their cities that long.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Tuesday:

' Kirkuk

Six gunmen raided a house in al Jawala village to the southwest of Kirkuk City. They killed the father, Ali Ahmed Hussein and his two sons, Salah and Hussein. According to eyewitnesses they strolled around the village freely and threatened the same fate to any who cooperates with the government, said Chief of Districts Police in Kirkuk.

A roadside bomb targeted a pick up truck carrying two officers, members of a military inspection committee from the Iraqi Ministry of Defence and their driver in southern Kirkuk Tuesday. All three were severely injured and were taken to hospital for treatment.

Gunmen opened fire and killed a civilian in al Uruba neighbourhood in Kirkuk City Late Monday. Husham Abdullah Nejim was standing in front of his house watering the plants when he was shot.

Anbar

A high rank American official was killed with two other employees of the American Embassy in Baghdad by a roadside bomb in Fallujah on Monday afternoon, statement by Ambassador Christopher R. Hill on the Death of Embassy Baghdad Employees said confirming the incident which took place in Fallujah yesterday with no information about casualties at that time.

Baghdad

- Around 3 p.m. a car bomb detonated in Mahmoudiyah town (south of Baghdad) on Tuesday. Three people were wounded.

- Around 9 p.m. a mortar round hit Al-Fidheiliya neighborhood in eastern Baghdad on Tuesday. Eight people were wounded.'


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Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Pakistani Army Advances;
UN Estimates 2.3 Million Refugees

The Pakistani Army said Tuesday morning that, as part of its Swat campaign, it had taken control of another strategic center, Maalam Jabba, which had been a stronghold of and training center for the Taliban Movement of Pakistan led by Mawlana Fazlullah.

The military said it continues a slow advance in Mingora, the largest city in Swat, but commanders say that it may take as much as ten days to secure the city. Military spokesman Major General Athar Abbas said that the slow pace was intended to avoid major damage to the city and to clear the roadside bombs set by the retreating Taliban.

Pakistani Taliban leader Mawlana Fazlullah announced a ceasefire on Monday, saying he had instructed his fighters to lay down their arms (though not to surrender), in part to avoid harm to innocent civilians. The Pakistani military says that it is in fact still meeting violent resistance from the Taliban, and dismissed Mawlana Fazlullah's announcement as a cynical ploy. Dawn reports, "Army spokesman Maj-Gen Athar Abbas said the militants ‘have started using ploys to escape. They are now remembering the civilians whom they used to behead and decapitate.’ He said the operation in the city would go on as planned."
, i
The LAT reports that the Obama administration is pressing China to provide more training and equipment to the Pakistani army in its fight against the Taliban. China has a doctrine of "harmonious development" that discourages foreign adventurism, so it isn't Beijing's first instinct. It recently declined to send troops to fight in Afghanistan alongside NATO. But Pakistan is near to China's Xinjiang Province, which is traditionally Muslim, and which has seen some separatist violence, and Beijing fears the spread to its realm of Talibanism.

The massive military operation in the midst of a populated area has now displaced 2.3 million persons, according to the UN.

Dawn editorializes that the dsiplaced persons situation threatens the economy of the North-West Frontier Province, insofar as the military operation has kept farmers from harvesting their crops and therefore left them with no money to buy seed and equipment for putting in next year's crop.

Aljazeera English reports on the hardships of Swat refugees living in tents in 115 degrees F.



The transcript of my interview with Bill Moyers, alongside journalist Shahan Mufti, on the Swat campaign, is now availabe on the web (click the hyperlink earlier in this para.)

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Monday, May 25, 2009

22 Dead, Dozens Wounded in Mosul, Falluja Attacks;
Sunni leaders Arrested in Diyala

The NYT reports that various attacks in Mosul and Falluja killed 22 on Sunday, including a suicide bombing targeting a US convoy in Mosul that missed and hit a restaurant instead. As many were wounded in the attacks as killed. There was also an assault on national police in Mosul, and a roadside bombing that killed Iraqi troops and wounded by-standers. In Falluja, guerrillas threw a grenade into a family home, killing an infant and wounding family members.

McClatchy reports that, in addition, a roadside bomb detonated in Adhamiya, north Baghdad, wounding 3.

The US and Iraqi militaries maintain that attacks are down by about half from this time last year, showing security progress. These statements seldom mention that a major reason for the fall in violence has been the ethnic cleansing of some 4 million Iraqis from their homes, reducing the contact of ethno-sectarian groups and so reducing violence among them.

Some Sunni fighters who had laid down their arms or fought religious radicals in the past two years are dismayed at the militant Shiism of the new Iraqi government, the lack of reconciliation with Sunnis, and the prospect that an American withdrawal will leave them at the mercy of Iran. Some are contemplating returning to armed struggle, according to McClatchy.

Dahr Jamail confirms the Sunnis' sense of unease, which is exacerbated by steps such as the arrest of two Sunni leaders in Diyala province by the al-Maliki government on Monday morning. One of those just detained, Sheikh Riyadh al-Mujami, is a well-known leader of a local Awakening Council.

Meanwhile, an amnesty for Sunni Arabs who left the insurgency, passed last February as part of a quest by the government for reconciliation, is now being blamed by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki for the release of mainly Sunni Arab guerrillas who are behind the wave of bombings and other violence this spring. Al-Maliki wants to revise the law.

Arab notables of Kirkuk Province met near Hawija to plan out a pan-Arab political alliance in order to contest provincial elections there. Both Sunnis and Shiites attended. They are contesting the plan of Kurds to annex Kirkuk to the Kurdistan Regional Government.

Only a tiny fraction of Iraq's some 4 million displaced persons, about 1.5 million of them abroad, have attempted to return to their old neighborhoods. McClatchy reports that often they have not found it safe, or have not found employment, and that they lack services.

The al-Maliki government is using libel lawsuits in an effort to close down the independent press in Iraq, and even some web sites. Political libel practices were common in the 16th and 17th centuries, but in most democratic countries they have gradually become more difficult to mount, as legislators and courts have recognized that they interfere with the healthy functioning of a free press. Ironically, the al-Maliki government appears itself to have confirmed the charge over which it sued the Kitabat (Writings) website in Germany, that members of the cabinet are corrupt and nepotistic.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that Iraqi researchers believe that Iraq is now a major conduit for drugs from the new golden triangle of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran to the countries of the Persian Gulf and the Levant. Some 14,000 Iraqis have themselves fallen into addiction.

Meanwhile, many Iraqis are upset that the US soldier who was convicted of raping an Iraqi minor girl, then killing her and others in her village, did not get the death penalty. Aljazeera English has video:



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Sunday, May 24, 2009

Pakistani Troops Enter Mingora;
India and Pakistan Sharing Intelligence

India and Pakistan are now sharing intelligence on extremists for the first time.

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh won a second term and his Congress Party much strengthened its majority in the Indian parliament in the recent elections. As a result, the PM has a free hand to negotiate with Pakistan if he so chooses, since his party can easily outvote the militant Hindu Bharatiya Janata Party. (BJP almost launched a war against Pakistan, which could have turned nuclear) when it was in power in 2002).

Pakistan's military announced that it had entered the city of Mingora, the largest in the Swat Valley, having surrounded it from four sides. Dawn reports that Major General Athar Abbas announced, "Street fighting has begun in Mingora city which has been encircled from the four sides and house to house search was underway to clear the entire city of miscreants."

Another official said that the Continental Hotel in Mingora had been cleared of Taliban.

A pincer movement against Peochar from Matta continued, with Taliban said to be fleeing that valley. They are led by Mawlana Fazlullah, and Peochar is their HQ. Locals were said to have complained, on being liberated by the army, that they had been physically abused by the Taliban.

Ordinary Pakistanis, most of whom follow Sufi saints, are extremely upset that the Taliban destroyed a major Sufi shrine. Sufism is a form of Islamic mysticism marked by an emphasis on divine love and attendance at saints' shrines, where believers seek intercession with God. The Taliban belong to the reformist Deobandi school and are influeced by Saudi Wahhabism, both of which disapproved of attending at the shrines of saints (i.e. they are analogous to extreme Protestants in the early modern period in Europe).

Pakistani business leaders point out that the large military operations in civilian areas of the northwest have paralyzed the economy of that region, and joblessness and displacement could themselves fuel further militancy among the Pushtuns (called Pathans in Pakistan) that predominate there. US officials forced the Pakistani government to launch this anti-Taliban campaign for the purposes of the Afghanistan War, but it is entirely possible that over time they are just making more trouble for themselves.

In other news, Pakistan and Iran started back up their negotiations over the export of natural gas from Iran to Pakistan (it would then likely go to India). The US is opposed to the plan, because it would strengthen Iran.



PS Catch Fareed Zakaria GPS on CNN Sunday.

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Iran bans Facebook

The BBC says that Iran has banned Facebook ahead of its presidential election. Reformist candidate Mir Husain Musavi's supporters had created a Facebook page and were using it to campaign for their candidate.

Last year Egyptians used Facebook to campaign for political reform in Egypt, and, of course, it was an important part of the Obama presidential campaign. The Iranian security establishment is savvy about electronic threats to the regime's authoritarianism. (Informed Comment itself is blocked in Iran).

However, of course, the smart thing to do would have been to encourage the other candidates also to use Facebook, thus levelling the playing field. Authoritarian regimes cannot imagine that everyone benefits from more peaceful political competition.


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Saturday, May 23, 2009

Pakistani Military Takes Strategic Hilltop Overlooking Swat

The Pakistani military has announced that it has taken the strategic hilltop of Biny Baba Ziarat that overlooks the Swat Valley. Some 150 Taliban were said to be killed in the hard fighting, in which they put up strong resistance even though the Pakistani military deployed helicopter gunships and much heavier firepower than the Taliban could muster.

Perhaps stung by charges that it has exaggerated its conquests in Swat and nearby areas, the Pakistani military invited Aljazeera English to film the now-subdued hilltop.



In Biny Baba Ziarat and elsewhere on Friday, the Pakistani military claimed to have killed 17 militants, while suffering 10 injuries among its security forces.

The US military says it has seen signs of Afghan guerrillas heading for Pakistan, likely to join up with Mawlana Fazlullah and the Tehrik-i Taliban Pakistan and fight the Pakistani army.

Meanwhile, in Taliban fighters are said to have withdrawn from 75% of Lower Dir near Swat as a result of an agreement reached with a local tribal council.

Tom Engelhardt's essay on the six ways the US war in AfPak is being expanded is not to be missed. See other recent essays at Tomdispatch, always essential reading.



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Friday, May 22, 2009

Pakistani Press Suspicious that Government Made up Swat Campaign against Taliban

There is something fishy about the Pakistani military's reporting of its campaign against the Taliban in Swat, according to the Pakistani press.

Dawn uses the phrase, "With scepticism growing about the progress of the month-old army offensive in the north-western region . . ." and notes, "From the air, there was little evidence of the fierce fighting and air strikes that the military claims have already killed more than 1,000 militants as well as some 60 soldiers."

Mingora, the largest town in Swat and the expected site of a Taliban-military showedown, just seemed like a ghost town to reporters brought up by the military.

Also suspicious is the report that Taliban in parts of Lower Dir are offering voluntarily to withdraw, in negotiations with local tribal chieftains.

Pakistani government officials had earlier claimed that military action had cleared most important centers in lower Dir of the Taliban.

Hundreds of thousands of Pakistani civilians have been displaced from Swat by the military's call for them to leave and allow its troops a clear shot at the Taliban, which it claims to have subsequently killed in the hundreds. Some photos of dead fighters were released.

But clearly some Pakistani journalists are entertaining dark suspicions that this campaign has largely been a shadow play, that the civilians were moved out so that there would be no eye witnesses, and that less has been going on militarily than has been claimed.

Has Swat been a virtual campaign, played out in headlines generated by Inter-Services Intelligence creative writers? Has less been actually going on than meets the eye?

Or is the Pakistani press being way too suspicious here, and creating a new conspiracy theory?

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Obama v. Cheney on Torture

Veteran security reporters Jonathan S. Landay and Warren Strobel at McClatchy fact-check former vice president Dick Cheney's speech defending torture and denouncing plans to close Guantanamo Bay Landay and Strobel catch the vice president in a whole series of falsehoods:

The long and the short of it is that other high US officials doubt the allegation that torture was necessary to fighting al-Qaeda, or necessarily produced good information that could not have been obtained in any other way. McClatchy points out that Ibn al-Shaykh Libi's confession, produced by torture, actually helped drag the US into a fruitless war in Iraq insofar as he made false allegations that Saddam Hussein was training al-Qaeda in chemical weapons. The US military combed six million captured Baath documents and found the allegation false.

It could also be added that torture almost certainly deepened and lengthened the Sunni Arab insurgency in Iraq, which contrary to Cheney's claims was not mainly led by al-Qaeda.

President Obama's speech on the same subject, is here. It is an important speech, but problematic. It is framed as an attempt to defend the Constitution from Cheney's abuses, and as a balancing of transparency against national security. I'm not one of those he accuses of being a transparency fundamentalist. But I find him making too many concessions to the National Security State that are in my view unconstitutional. He maintains he is cutting back the abuses. But it isn't good enough that one president should identify where he things the US government went too far, and voluntarily cut back. Cutting back from three packs a day to only one could still kill you. And what happens if a different sort of president gets in in 2012 and ramps up the abuses again? By declining to draw a clear and adjudicable line, Obama is unwittingly allowing the Right to lay the groundwork for permanent move to presidential dictatorship. Obama says he doesn't want to re-litigate the last 8 years. That is frankly disingenuous. The last 8 years were never litigated. And crimes were committed. If they are not addressed, they will become norms, not crimes.
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3 US Soldiers among 23 Killed in Iraq

Bombings killed 23 persons in Iraq on Thursday, including, Iraqi officials maintain, 3 US soldiers. The attacks followed on a major bombing Wednesday that left 40 dead and 73 wounded in the largely Shiite, northern Shula district.

In Baghdad, guerrillas carried out two significant bombings. One hit a market in Dora district, killing 9 Iraqis and 3 US personnel. Dora, a largely Sunni neighborhood in the southwest of the capital, had been a stronghold of the Sunni Arab guerrillas, and had witnessed large-scale ethnic cleansing of Christians and Shiites. Its security situation had improved markedly in the past year, but now the violence is returning.

Also in West Baghdad (the part of the city where Sunni Arabs at least used to predominate), guerrillas hit the al-Mamoun police station with a bomb in a garbage can, killing 3 policemen and wounding 18 others, including recruits and civilians.

In Kirkuk, a man in a suicide bomb vest attacked members of a Sunni Arab Awakening Councils waiting to receive their pay from the Iraqi government for having turned on the resistance to the new government and the US. An assassination attempt was also made on the police chief of Kirkuk, which left a security man in his entourage dead. The northern oil city of Kirkuk is an object of contention among Kurds, Arabs and Turkmen.

Because the Baghdad explosions were not suicide bombings, local Shiites told McClatchy that they suspected cells of the deposed Baath Party of being behind the new wave of violence.

Although the US military maintained that the bombings were random events, many Iraqis are worried that they are instead signs of a renewed and determined insurgency.

McClatchy reports that Sunni Arab leaders of the Awakening Councils are frustrated that jobs for their men, promised by the Iraqi government, have often not materialized. The councils had turned on the Sunni radicals and fought them, taking a salary from the US and now the Iraqi government. The leader of the council in Dora, hit by the bomb on Thursday, complains that only a handful of his men has received employment. The problem with giving the council members desk jobs, as the Iraqi government proposes for most of them, is that while armed they made deadly enemies in their own neighborhoods, and if they are demobilized they become open to being assassinated.

McClatchy reports political violence on Thursday in Iraq:

' Baghdad

A suicide bomber wearing an explosive vest detonated in the midst of a U.S. foot patrol in al Athuriyeen marketplace in Doura neighbourhood, southern Baghdad at 11 a.m. Thursday killing fifteen people including three U.S. soldiers and injuring 30 people including five U.S. soldiers said Iraqi Police. The U.S. military confirmed that three Coalition soldiers were killed and is withholding their names pending notification of their families.

An IED hidden in a plastic bag and planted in a waste paper basket in Mamoun Police Station, western Baghdad detonated Thursday morning killing two policemen and injuring 20 people including eight civilians who were at the police station to issue documents.

A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in Zafaraniyah neighbourhood in southeast Baghdad injuring three policemen and two civilians.

Kirkuk

A suicide bomber wearing a suicide vest and dressed in Sahwa uniform detonated amidst a gathering of Sahwa members waiting to be paid at one of the military centres in Kirkuk City at 7 a.m. Thursday. The explosion killed eight Sahwa members and injured seven others.

A roadside bomb targeted the motorcade of Kirkuk Chief of Police, Brigadier Burhan Tayib in Korneesh Street, central Kirkuk injuring one of the security personnel and dcausing damages to one of the cars.

Diyala

An IED exploded while it was being defused by a bomb squad in al Aswad area, 4 km to the north of Baquba. The explosion injured two members of the squad.

Nineveh

- Insurgents threw a grenade at an Iraqi army patrol in Mosul on Thursday. Three people were wounded including two soldiers.

- Around noon two gunmen opened fire on two brothers in Bab Al-Toub in downtown Mosul on Thursday. The two brothers were wounded and were taken to the hospital for treatment.

- In the afternoon gunmen killed a mother and her daughter in their house in the Al-Quds neighborhood in eastern Mosul. The two women were seamstresses in the neighborhood and they were poor.

- Police found a dead body for a 25 year-old woman in Rahidiyah neighborhood in northern Mosul around noon.

- Police found a dead body for a man who was abducted yesterday in Tahreer neighborhood in eastern Mosul in the afternoon.'


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Thursday, May 21, 2009

What to do About Guantanamo?

The US Congress is refusing to allow President Obama to close the Guantanamo Bay prison, a symbol of torture and abuse. Apparently their vote was driven by fears of public backlash if those detained were brought to prisons in the US. Obama had failed to specify exactly what would happen to the prisoners when the facility was closed, but one is slated to be tried in New York for the attacks on the US embassies in East Africa in 1998.

I don't understand the controversy. Perpetrators of the embassy bombings have already been tried and convicted in a New York court, some years ago, and are serving sentences in US supermax penitentiaries. Why would Gailani's trial and, assuming he were convicted, imprisonment be different?

And, weren't dangerous Nazis imprisoned in the US during WW II?

I don't actually think the US public wants to go on torturing people and holding individuals indefinitely without trial and without rights. Uh, the Declaration of Independence didn't speak of the rights of US citizens. It said "all men" have the rights it set out.

A federal judge has already rejected Obama's right, which he recently asserted, to keep people in prison for having shown "substantial support" (but short of taking up arms) for e.g. the Taliban. If you wanted to jail people for thinking well of the Taliban, you'd have to imprison 5% of the Afghan population, or nearly a million and a half people, and 14% of the Pakistani population, or about 24 million people.

Obama had better do something quick or he'll be forced just to let a lot of the prisoners go. Andy Worthington argues that many at Guantanamo were randomly picked up anyway, with some sold to the US by the Taliban!

I'm against the military tribunals. But why can't you hold civilian trials at Guantanamo Bay? District it as part of some civil US jurisdiction US and send a jury over. You could declare all civilians at Guantanamo Bay under the jurisdiction of the Virgin Islands federal District Court, e.g. You could use the security and facilities of the military base for the civilian trials. Those convicted could go into a supermax penitentiary in the US, from which no one has escaped, and which already hold Ahmed Rassam and Sheikh Omar Abdel Rahman (look them up; few at Guantanamo are more dangerous). Or maybe since the Congress is so exercised by this issue, they will want to refurbish and start back up Alcatraz . . .

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Car Bomb Kills 32 at Shula;
Plummeting Oil Prices Hit Iraqi Army;
Agricultural Crisis Looms as Euphrates falls

A parked car bomb detonated near a popular restaurant in Shula, a poverty-stricken Shiite neighborhood in northwest Baghdad on Wednesday evening , killing 35 persons and wounding 72. It was the deadliest bombing this year.

As. Gen. Ray Odierno said recently, it is not going to stop, right? There will be low-intensity violence of this sort for some time to come. As long as the guerrillas cannot take and hold territory and cannot stand up to a frontal assault by the Iraqi army, they are just a big annoyance. They can discourage foreign investment, keep white collar Iraqis abroad or fleeing, and generally damage Iraq's stability a nd ability to repair its infrastructure. But they cannot win the war.

On another front, Iraq warned Wednesday of a looming catastrophe because of the low levels of the Euphrates River, which is suffering the effects of a drought and which Turkey has dammed and is using for irrigation in Anatolia. Low levels of water contribute to salinization in southern Iraq, further damaging crop yields. Najaf Province has forbidden farmers to plant rice this year because it is a water-intensive crop. China's Xinhua news service says that some Iraqi farmers are giving up and moving to the cities because agriculture is just too difficult and poorly rewarded under these circumstances.

Just to say that things like this could cause violence if they aren't dealt with diplomatically.

When it doesn't rain it doesn't pour. The drastic fall in energy prices because of the world-wide economic slowdown has left Iraq without the money to equip its army at the pace the government had hoped. Even just maintaining the military equipment already received from the US will be a challenge at this rate.

Desperate for revenues, the Iraqi cabinet a 35% corporate tax rate for foreign oil companies doing business in Iraq. This measure is only steep compared to Paul Bremer's 15% 'flat tax,' a crackpot idea that favors the super-wealthy and which he wrote into Iraqi law. Anyway, Iraq is too unstable to see much foreign investment any time soon.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq for Wednesday:

' Baghdad

A roadside bomb targeted a U.S. military convoy in Shaab neighbourhood, northern Baghdad Wednesday at 2 p.m. causing material damage to one vehicle. No casualties were reported.

A parked car bomb targeted civilians in Shula neighbourhood, northwest Baghdad at 7.30 p.m. Wednesday. The explosion took place near a restaurant and an ice-cream and fruit-juice parlour killing at least 34 civilians and injuring at least 72 others many of whom were women and children said Iraqi Police.

Nineveh

Gunmen opened fire and killed one civilian in al Zinjili neighbourhood in western Mosul Wednesday morning and got away.

Iraqi Police found an unidentified body in Jisr al Sewess neighbourhood, eastern Mosul Wednesday. The victim was stabbed many times.

An IED planted in a mechanic's workshop in Tel Abta neighbourhood, southwest Mosul exploded Tuesday injuring four civilians who were the owner of the shop and owners of adjacent shops. '


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Wednesday, May 20, 2009

2 Americans Killed in Afghanistan;
Pakistani Army advances on Mingora, Peochar

A roadside bomb hit a US convoy 35 miles outside Kabul, killing one American soldier and one civilian, on Wednesday morning.

Aljazeera English reports on the arrival of further US troops in Afghanistan:



Meanwhile, the State Department foreign service officers are behind the scenes seething at the possibility that Neoconservative Zalmay Khalilzad may attempt to insert himself, unelected, into Afghanistan politics.

On the other AfPak front, the Pakistani army continued its advance on the city of Mingora, at 200,000 the largest in Swat District, on Wednesday morning, according to the newspaper Jang and Geo TV. The operation is in its sixth day, and has cut the local population off from most services, as well as resulting in large-scale displacements. The News reports:

'The military said there were fierce clashes in the Taliban-held town of Matta, as well as in Kanju, which is a short distance from Mingora, with four soldiers and 14 insurgents killed in the two towns. In the last 24 hours, 16 militants were also killed, the army said. Footage broadcast on a private TV channel showed armed soldiers standing outside locked shops in Matta, a bastion of the Swat Taliban. “Troops continue to close in on Mingora, from where the Taliban are trying to escape but our strategy is not to let them flee,î a security official said.'
Dozens of persons have been killed in the fighting, including militants and Pakistani troops.

In other words, the Pakistani military appears to be attempting to avoid a Tora Bora-type scenario where the Taliban slip out the back door in the face of a frontal assault. Its ultimate goal is to close in on the obscure town of Peochar or Peuchar, the HQ of Pakistan Taliban leader Mullah Fazlullah. See Shaun Appleby at MyDD for analysis and map of the operation. H/t The Agonist

The Pakistani president claimed that his forces had taken Maidan and Matta, though other sources talk about ongoing fighting in those areas.

The desperate Taliban are conducting forced marriages with local families, presumably to bind them politically to the movement and raise operatives' morale. They are also said to be forcibly inducting local young men into their forces. It is hard to gauge the accuracy of these charges, since some may emanate from families that had shifted to the Taliban but now are afraid of the central government reasserting itself.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pledged $110 mn for the 1.5 million Pakistani refugees created by the current military campaign. The I.D.P. crisis is among the biggest since the 2006-7 exodus of Iraqis in the Sunni-Shiite civil war there, which was on a similar scale. Whether such massive displacement calms things or makes for more radicalism is yet to be seen. Part of the answer lies in whether the Pakistani government can and will actually assert itself and provide needed services in Swat after the campaign ends. Pakistan, like many third world countries, does not collect much money in income taxes. As a result, it is inadequate in providing services and security, since the state is poor, and tends to try to extract strategic rent from the international community to strengthen its security forces against outside threats. (Strategic rent would include the $10 bn the US gave the military dicatatorship in the past 8 years.)


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Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Obama/ Netanyahu Meet Produces Few Results

The Obama-Netanyahu talks were clearly a train wreck for Israel's far rightwing Likud Party. The talks went on nearly twice as long as scheduled, suggesting a lot of bumps in the road. The two seemed to me stiff in their body language afterward, and they clearly did not agree on virtually anything important. Both finessed the disagreement by appealing to vague generalities and invoking the long term. Obama wants to negotiate with Iran regarding its civilian nuclear enrichment research program, but stressed that his patience is not infinite. Netanyahu, of course, wants military action against Iran on a short timetable.

Netanyahu's hysteria about Iran is a piece of misdirection intended to sidestep the issue of Israel's own nuclear arsenal. Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty, and allows regular inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency, even if the latter is not completely satisfied with Iran's transparency. Israel just thumbed its nose at the NPT. Israel would only have the moral high ground in demanding that Iran cease enrichment research if it gave up its own some 150 warheads.

Obama wants Netanyahu to commit to supporting a two-state solution to be implemented in the near future. Netanyahu absolutely refused. He did say he is willing to "talk" to the Palestinians, though it is unclear why that would be a productive thing to do if he is die-hard against giving them the only thing they want. Rabbi Michael Lerner makes this point eloquently and at some length. Admittedly Netanyahu's hands are in some ways tied by members of parliament from his own party , who reject the whole notion of a Palestinian state.

Netanyahu said he did not want to rule the Palestinians. That is an evasion. If he won't give them a state, then they remain citizens of no state and inevitably Israel "rules" them in the sense of making the important decisions about how they live their lives. The Likud Party doesn't want the Palestinians, just their land and resources. That demand is actually what makes the Palestinian issue different and more horrific than other ethnic-national problems in the world. There are peoples imagining themselves as nations and working to assert a sub-nationalism. But virtually none of them lacks citizenship in a state. The Tibetans and others that are sometimes cited in this regard are not citizenship-less, even if they think they have the wrong citizenship. Palestinians have no citizenship at all, and all important decisions are made for them by their Israeli colonial masters. Sri Lanka, which claims to have just defeated the Tamil Tigers, was fighting to keep the minority Tamils (who speak a Dravidian language and are typically Hindus) as citizens of Sri Lanka, which is dominated by Sinhalese-speaking Buddhists. (The conflict is also in part about the wealthier Tamils wanting more autonomy from the poorer Sinhalese, and about a Marxist guerrilla group ironically representing this minority bourgeois demand; i.e. it isn't just ethno-religious.) As brutal as the Sri Lankan campaign was, it does not leave the Tamils at the end of the day without basic rights of citizenship in a state, which is the condition of the Palestinians-- who are therefore the most oppressed people in the world.

Netanyahu wants the Palestinians to acknowledge that Israel is a "Jewish state." I don't understand this demand. Israel is not a Jewish state, it is a multi-cultural state, with about half a million non-Jewish Russians and Ukrainians and 20% of its population is Arab. If "Jewish" is meant religiously, then observant Jews are actually a minority of the population in Israel. If "Jewish" is meant racially, then it is a particularly shameful demand. It is like demanding either that the US be recognized as a "Christian" country or as a "white" country. Obama was ill-advised to use the diction, himself.

As for Netanyahu's gift to Obama of Mark Twain's travelogue to nineteenth-century Ottoman Palestine, that was kind of an ideological attack on solid historiography.

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Kuwait Elections: 4 Women in Parliament, Shiite Reps nearly Double

Kuwait held non-party elections last weekend for its 50-member parliament, electing 21 new faces. The election for the first time of 4 women (out of 16 who ran) and a doubling of the Shiite representation to 9 from 5 have caused a stir among analysts. Likewise, the Salafi or Sunni fundamentalist groups lost substantial ground.

For Kuwaitis, the election was in part about economic issues. Kuwait is the world's fifth-largest petroleum exporter and per capita one of the wealthier societies in the world. But the downturn in petroleum prices has hit hard.

Aljazeera English has an excellent discussion of the issue.



US Gulf analyst Gregory Gause points out that there was a lot of continuity in the composition of the parliament, and that candidates not strongly associated with political factions (the Emir does not allow real parties but there are party-like groupings) did best. It was a revolt in favor of independents. He also says that parliamentary candidates tended not to take up foreign policy issues. In any case real power is in the hands of the prime minister, who is appointed by the Emir rather than being elected from parliament.

Kuwaiti analysts point out that the turnover was not exceptional compared to past elections, and that parliamentary gridlock may well continue.

I still think these Kuwait elections are significant. To have an Arab public vote in women as 8% of its representatives (and these women mostly have higher degrees; three are associated with the Liberal trend) is remarkable. Pakistan and Iraq have apportioned seats for women, but in Kuwait this development is voluntary. The US Senate is only 17% women.

Likewise, that the Kuwaiti Shiites, widely estimated to be a third of the population, are beginning to find a political voice vis-a-vis the Sunni fundamentalists is all to the good and will strengthen pluralism.

Gulf elections are tame affairs and elected officials seldom have much real power. But these parliaments are likely the matrix of future constitutional monarchies, and it would be a mistake to dismiss such an election, and such an outcome, as unimportant.

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Monday, May 18, 2009

Obama-Netanyahu must not be Kennedy-Khrushchev

Far rightwing Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is meeting Monday with President Barack Obama in Washington.

It is the most fateful encounter of two world leaders since Kennedy met Khrushchev. And Obama absolutely must not allow himself to be cowed or misunderstood as timid by Netanyahu, who is a notorious bully and warmonger. (Bill Clinton complained that Netanyahu when last prime minister thought that he was the superpower). If Obama can cow Netanyahu, his Middle East policy may have a chance. If Netanyahu comes away thinking he can thumb his nose at Washington, the whole Middle East could be in flames by the end of Obama's first term.

The two come to the encounter with starkly different agendas for the Middle East. Obama wants better relations with Iran (which he needs for a clean withdrawal from Iraq and for success in Afghanistan). And Obama wants to be the president who finally established a Palestinian state, implemented a two-state solution, and resolved the long-running Arab-Israeli conflict, which has generated so many wars and so much terrorism and instability. (As I have said before, the key problem in all this is Palestinian statelessness.)

Netanyahu on the other hand wants to attack Iran and attempt to destroy its nuclear enrichment research facilities. And he absolutely does not under any circumstances want a Palestinian state or to be forced to withdraw Israeli squatters from the Palestinian territories that they have been colonizing since 1967 (unlike most of Israel proper, the UN never awarded that territory to Israel, nor has it been recognized implicitly by international treaties, as Egypt's Camp David accords implicitly recognized 1949 Israeli borders.)

Obama, concerned that Israeli sabre-rattling might itself lead to hostilities, sent CIA head Leon Panetta to Israel recently to demand that the Netanyahu government tone down its belligerent rhetoric. Netanyahu maintains that Iran has vowed to destroy Israel, which is not correct. The Iranian government is hostile to Israel and wishes that the Zionist enterprise would collapse the way the Soviet Union or the shah's government did. But it has said that it would accept a two-state solution if that was what the Palestinians wanted. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad never threatened to 'wipe Israel off the face of the map,' since there is not even such an idiom in Persian. He was talking about an ideological collapse of a Zionist regime and its occupation of Jerusalem, Islam's third holiest city. Iran has not launched an aggressive war possibly since Karim Khan Zand took Basra in the 1780s.

Netanyahu's plan to attack Iran's nuclear facilities would fail, and would only cause Iran actually to seek nukes, which it is not presently doing according to US intelligence. I like Israelis, but they are understandably traumatized by all the things that have happened to them since the 1930s and have developed an unhealthy hysteria and tendency to shoot first and ask questions later. They were convinced that a US overthrow of Saddam Hussein would change the Middle East in their favor. It has not (Hizbullah in Lebanon has new friends in Baghdad, as does Tehran). Obama must impress on them that the answer to every problem is not a bombing raid. The good thing about having Rahm Emmanuel in the White House is that he will be able to phrase the instruction colorfully enough for it to be understood unambiguously.

An Israeli attack on Iran might well reactivate the Mahdi Army and Badr Corps as anti-American Shiite militias in Iraq- all hell could break loose in that country, leaving Obama's hopes for a withdrawal in tatters. And Iran has many clients in Afghanistan that could be mobilized against NATO-- in fact it could join an effort to keep military materiel from even getting to Afghanistan, leaving NATO forces vulnerable to being cut off and killed.

Netanyahu's talk of improving the economic lives of Palestinians instead of giving them a state is also nonsense. Statelessness prevents economic security and progress. And people aren't just motivated by material things. Palestinians want a concrete manifestation of their national identity, just as everyone else does.

Only a viable Palestinian state resolves this huge decades-long mess in the short to medium term. I think it may be too late but am willing to see what Obama has in mind.

Aljazeera English reports on the Obama-Netanyahu meeting from a pan-Arab point of view.



Aljazeera English also looks at the impact of the aftermath of the Gaza War on US-Israel relations.



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Sunday, May 17, 2009

Drone Attack on S. Waziristan Kills 29;
Pakistani Military advances in Swat

In the midst of a major Pakistani military campaign against Taliban in Swat Valley, the US operated a drone against South Waziristan, firing missiles at the village of Khaisore in Mirali on Saturday, killing 29 tribesmen meeting at the house of Hikmat Roshan. Dawn adds, "In another incident, helicopters gunship shelled houses of suspected militants in the Pir Kalli area, 10 kilometers east of Miramshah on Saturday." (This attack must have been that of the Pakistani army). The attacks responded to Taliban assaults on military convoys in the area.

An insurgent car bomb killed 9 and wounded nearly 30 persons in the northern, largely Pushtun (Pathan) city of Peshawar on Saturday.

The Pakistani military continued its operations against Taliban in Swat on Saturday. Dawn writes, "Helicopter gunships and fighter jets shelled militant hideouts in Peochar, Shamozai and Khwaza Khela areas of Swat, which started Friday night and continued until Saturday morning,’ a military official said on condition of anonymity. Pakistan’s military said Saturday that 47 militants were killed over the last 24 hours of its air and ground offensive against the Taliban in three northwestern districts."

Aljazeera English reports on the military's initial assault on Mingora, the largest city in Swat



Eric Margolis thinks the US is making a big mistake in forcing the Pakistan military to act so disruptively and to risk angering the Pushtuns in general.

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Al-Maliki Calls for Majority Rule;
US Soldier Killed at Najaf, Japanese fired on at Ramadi

Nuri al-Maliki called late Thursday for an end to the consensus system in Iraqi politics, which gives Kurds and sometimes Sunni Arabs a virtual veto over legislation they do not like. In an interview with the American Arabic-language satellite station al-Hurra (which is very little watched) al-Maliki called for majority rule with straight up and down votes in parliament rather than the long parleys intended to keep everyone, in government or in opposition, happy. The consensus system stems from pacts made with the Kurds and Sunni Arabs by the Shiite majority in the year after the fall of Saddam Hussein, a period in which al-Maliki admitted that consensus rule had be necessary. But now he feels it is a drag.

Al-Maliki and other Shiite theorists of the future of Iraq tend to dismiss concerns about a tyranny of the majority. They should not. Studies show that countries with significant minorities but a dominant political faction tend to be more violent.

The US military made three arrests in the course of its current operation against arms smugglers in northern Iraq who are part of a ring based in Syria, especially that of Abu Khalaf, on whom the Department of the Treasury has slapped sanctions.

Jasim Azzawi of Aljazeera English investigates the reasons for the increase in street violence in Iraq in recent weeks.



Another mass grave was found in Najaf Province, containing bodies of Kurds killed in Saddam Hussain's Anfal campaign of 1988 during the last months of the Iran-Iraq War.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Saturday:

' Baghdad

At 8 a.m. a mortar round targeted Sadr City in northeastern Baghdad on Saturday. It destroyed a house, killed one little boy and injured both his younger brother and their mother.

A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol on Abu Ghraib highway, in west Baghdad at noon Saturday killing two police officers and injuring two policemen and five civilians.

A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol near al Ghadeer traffic bridge, eastern Baghdad at 1 p.m. Saturday killing two policemen and injuring two policemen and three civilians.

- Around 5 p.m a roadside bomb detonated in Jihad neighborhood in western Baghdad on Saturday. Three people were wounded.

Nineveh

A gunman shot and killed a policeman at a checkpoint in Yarmouk neighborhood, western Mosul on Friday evening. The gunman was sitting in the passenger seat of a car stopped for a more thorough search. He shot and killed the policeman, then tried to escape on foot. He did not get far before police shot him. He was captured alive. The driver escaped by speeding away in the car.

A U.S. military helicopter was shot down in the vicinity of Mosul said Iraqi Police. On Saturday night a U.S. military spokesman said they had "no reports from Mosul that a U.S. helicopter went down today."

- A roadside bomb targeted an Iraqi army patrol in Ghayara town(about 37 miles west of Mosul). One soldier was killed and two others were wounded.

Anbar

A group of Japanese nationals negotiating a contract in Anbar were targeted by sniper fire in Ramadi at 11 a.m. Thursday. One of their private security detail was injured.

Najaf

A roadside bomb targeted a U.S. military convoy in Jrewiyah neighborhood in the city of Najaf. The incident resulted in the death of one U.S. soldier and the injury of another, said Najaf Police. The U.S. Military said that one soldier was killed in the south of Iraq. It is not clear whether the two reports are about the same incident.

Babil

A farmer was killed by fire from the U.S. Military on a road in Neel area, 5 km to the north of Hilla Saturday morning said Iraqi Police. A U.S. military spokesman said that the military were removing IEDs planted along the main road and searching for explosives when the driver approached in his car, not paying attention to the warning signs, so they opened fire and killed him.

Basra

A member of the Civil Defence was killed accidentally by a hand grenade explosion in Abu al Khaseeb neighborhood, 20 km to the south of Basra City. His team was removing captured weapons and ammunition when the hand grenade exploded and killed him.


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Saturday, May 16, 2009

Pakistani Army Poised to Invade Mingora;
Husain: Taliban like Borg

The Pakistani army is preparing to invade and reduce the city of Mingora (pop. 200,000), the largest city in the Swat valley.

During the course of the current military campaign, which pits 15,000 infantry of the regular army against 4,000 Pushtun fundamentalist irregulars, the Pakistani army claims to have killed 800 'Pakistani Taliban.'

During the course of the recent fighting, a million Pakistanis have now been displaced by the fighting since last fall.

Aljazeera English reports on the vastness and difficulties of the internally displaced.



McClatchy sees signs that this time the Taliban might stand and fight, rather than melting away guerrilla style.

Irfan Husain likens the Taliban to the emotionless Borg androids of Star Trek.

Aljazeera English reports on the Pakistani campaign, and on the way in which the Taliban are still in control of distant villages.



Aljazeera English reports on the Pakistani military campaign in the Swat valley, paying special attention to the officers' connections in the North-West Frontier Province.



The documentary "Made in Pakistan" attempts to shed light on the situation in that country by following 4 Pakistanis. This is the trailer:



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Friday, May 15, 2009

Australian Press Releases Abu Ghraib Photos

For those with strong stomachs, more Abu Ghraib torture photos may be seen here.

They are courtesy of the Sydney Morning Herald.

The Australian press got hold of 60 of these some time ago and is now releasing them. Presumably they are among the photos, the release of which President Obama is now attempting to block.

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Da'wa Breaks with UIA; Torture Used to get up Iraq War

According to al-Zaman, writing in Arabic, Nuri al-Maliki's Islamic Mission Party (Da'wa) has rejected an appeal from cleric Abdul Aziz al-Hakim of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq to run as coalition partners in the United Iraqi Alliance in the forthcoming parliamentary election. Da'wa spokesmen say that the party wants to make a broader coalition than in possible with the UIA. (I.e. Da'wa wants Sunni and secular partners, while the UIA is a sectarian, Shiite coalition). Al-Hakim had appealed to al-Maliki for help in rebuilding the United Iraqi Alliance. Al-Hakim's own ISCI did poorly in the province elections of January 2009, after having earlier dominated the Shiite south.

If Da'wa really could put together a cross-sectarian nationalist coalition and win with it, that would change the political dynamics in Iraq quite substantially, and might make the country more stable, setting the stage for a clean US withdrawal.

AP reports that the number of Christians in Iraq has fallen from 1.4 million in 1989 to as few as 400,000 today, largely as a result of the violence that ensued after the 2003 US invasion of that country. Pope Benedict called attention to this problem during his recent trip to the ME. Many have fled to Lebanon and Syria, and apparently few contemplate returning to Iraq. Bishop John Benjamin Sulayman of Baghdad said he worried that Christianity would become extinct in the Middle East, where the over-all proportion of Christians in ther region's population has fallen from 20% to 5% in recent decades. Most Christians leave because of the ease of emigration to the west, because of better economic opportunities there, and/or because of fear of violence and rising Muslim fundamentalist.

Lawrence Wilkerson, aide to former Secretary of State Colin Powell, alleges that the main impetus for torturing prisoners in 2002- early 2003 was not to foil terrorist plots but rather to scare up evidence of a Saddam-al-Qaeda tie. US interrogators never found such a link

Joe Conason has more on torturing to get up a war.

Obama will revive Bush-era military tribunals at Guantanamo Bay.

Jeremy Scahill alleges that an especially brutal US military unit, guilty of prisoner abuse, is still operating at Guantanamo.

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Cole at Bill Moyers Journal re: Pakistan, Today, Friday May 15

Juan Cole and Shahan Mufti discuss the Pakistan crisis on Bill Moyers Journal, PBS, Friday May 15 (9 pm in most markets but check local listings).

NEWSLETTER - Friday, May 15, 2009

"This talk of Pakistan being a failed state -- we've heard that. That's been around for 50 [or] 60 years, and nobody in that country takes it too seriously." - Shahan Mufti

"I think it's cynical, and I think that it's a way for Washington to put pressure on the Pakistani civilian and military elites to do what Washington wants them to do."
- Juan Cole

This week on BILL MOYERS JOURNAL (check local listings)

* As the world follows the violence and unrest in Pakistan, Bill Moyers speaks with historian Juan Cole and GlobalPost journalist Shahan Mufti about how the US's increasingly strained relationship with the troubled nation will impact the prospects for peace, human rights, and democracy in the war-torn region.

* And, Bill Moyers talks with Daniel Goleman, author of ECOLOGICAL INTELLIGENCE, on building awareness of how consumer products impact the environment and why he writes that “green” is a “mirage.”

On MOYERS ONLINE

* Read further dispatches from Shahan Mufti.

* Tips for smarter shopping and conservation.

On THE MOYERS BLOG

* A prescription for Pakistan. What should the US' strategic vision be for Pakistan and Afghanistan?

* What does 'green' mean? Tell us if you think talk of a green economy is realistic or wishful thinking.

* An essay from JOURNAL senior writer Michael Winship.

Each week, video, transcripts, and further resources and investigations from BILL MOYERS JOURNAL are available online at www.pbs.org/moyers.

Tune in, log on and tell us what you think, and we'll see you Fridays on PBS and every day at pbs.org/moyers.

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Wertheim: Wilders’ Lethal Words

Anne-Ruth Wertheim writes in a guest op-ed for IC:

Words can incite violence. These are the kind of words Geert Wilders used in the Dutch Parliament . . .

On Wednesday January 21, 2009, the Amsterdam Court decided a court ruling was required on whether Member of Parliament Geert Wilders (Party for Freedom) was inciting hatred towards a segment of the population with his statements about Muslims. Since Dutch Members of Parliament are not liable to prosecution for anything they say there, the judge will mainly focus on what Wilders said outside Parliament. But his words in Parliament are at least as interesting, if not more so. Especially the way he combines his various descriptions of Muslims.

Elihu Richter from Israel met a group of older Moroccan Amsterdammers in Auschwitz. They wanted to understand how it all could have happened. When one of them said whoever did the selecting and gassing were monsters and not human beings, Richter replied that they had been nursed by their mothers and played with other children just like anyone else. They had been turned into monsters by “lethal words.” The conversation also included other mass murders like the one in Ruanda. And Richter summed up the lethal words: garbage, monkeys, rotting corpses, rats, typhus, cancerous tumors, cockroaches, worms and parasites (Auschwitz Bulletin 2008/3).

Mass massacres all across the globe are frequently referred to as spontaneous. We all wonder in despair why no one saw them coming. It later turns out that the omens, the lethal words, had been around for years. But freedom of speech is sacrosanct and calling it racism is ridiculous. Someone simply started killing someone else and that set off the sinister circle of revenge, fear of revenge, seeing the killing, the fear of death, and more revenge.

People do not simply pick up their rifle or machete and go out on the street with it. There has to be hatred all around, and even more importantly, there has to be fear. It is not uncommon for fear to be the real reason for killing. Richter’s lethal words might all seem similar, but they aren’t. Garbage, monkeys, worms and cockroaches are dirty or inferior. Thus automatically making the speaker superior. Typhus, rats, rotting corpses, cancerous tumours and parasites have to do with disease and invasion. They transform the speaker into a potential victim. Degradation and branding as dangerous all mixed together makes for a very toxic brew.

What goes on in the minds of people who assault a segment of the population? It makes a difference whether they feel backed by the authorities, either covertly or openly. It also makes a difference whether it concerns a minority or a majority. Colonized peoples had to endure colonial racism. They were viewed as incapable of governing themselves, they were “childlike and dim-witted.” That is the way they were born, living from hand to mouth and spitting on the ground. They were good enough though to work from dawn to dusk for the ruling white minority.

Cultural racism against mercantile minorities who have to compete with the established majorities is however a very different matter. In the former Dutch East Indies, Chinese diligence and ingenuity only gave rise to resentment and envy. The Chinese could hardly be called dim-witted, but they still had a deviant culture to be targeted. They were “money hungry, unreliable and out for total domination.” The barely concealed message was that violence against this group would be considered self-defense. Violence against mercantile minorities is always on a mass scale – the entire group needs to be physically eliminated. It is this cultural racism that bears such a strong resemblance to pre-war anti-Semitism: the suspicion of unreliability, the accusation of wanting world domination, and the efforts at complete extermination.

Ever since the arrival of labour immigrants from Turkey and Morocco, there has been a shift in the Netherlands. First they got their share of the familiar colonial racism and were looked down upon. Nowadays the Muslims and essentially all non-Western immigrants are berated for their deviant culture and religion and accused of striving for total domination. What has now replaced contempt and scorn can well end in mass violence. Just like anywhere else where recognizable segments of the population are singled out as a threat to society.

At the moment, we are witnessing a combination of the two types of racism. Let us look closely at Wilders’ words at the most recent Annual Budget Debate in September 2008.

First he refers to the bad conduct on the street of youths of Moroccan descent. Then he switches in one breath to his real target group, i.e. the Muslims. “The Moroccan scum that goes through life cursing, spitting and beating up innocent people – I prefer to call them colonists – Muslim colonists … because they did not come to integrate, they came here to take over.” On the second day of the debate, he uses the same tactic. He once again speaks of “that kind of Moroccan scum that spits at us, threatens us and beats us up.” But then he reveals his true colors and is no longer talking about the youths on the street. “They are visitors who tear the wallpaper off the walls in our home, smash the furniture and toss the television out the window.” And he rhetorically asks Prime Minister Balkenende, “What would you do in a case like that? Throw them out!”

He slyly intertwines insulting innuendos with very scary prose. We ought to have nothing but contempt for the Muslims with their primitive customs like spitting and their anti-social behavior. And we need to be very scared of them, they beat people up and want to take over here, they want to colonize us. Now that the fear of numerical domination by Muslims no longer does the trick, he turns to the notion of them colonizing us in much the same way as we once ruled over the majorities as a Dutch minority.

It is funny how Wilders suddenly seems to practise “updating”. The target group he used to describe as “guests” – alluding to the term guest workers, he now allows to stay overnight! They are upgraded from day guests to visitors who can stay the night. But appearances can be deceptive. Visitors infiltrate your personal life in a far deeper way. And once they start touching your possessions, especially the sacred cow, your television set, they are very treacherous indeed.

History has taught us the instrumental role fear plays in generating mass violence. Parasites, invading germs, ‘international world Jewry’, Islam attacking our society from inside. But killing has always been easier if people can see their victims as inferior. So the fright cocktail requires a touch of disdain: cockroaches to be stepped on, Untermenschen unworthy of life itself.

There is every reason to pay very close attention to the words of politicians and opinion leaders as separate entities and even more so in combination.

This article was in De Volkskrant, a Dutch daily paper, on Friday January 23, 2009.

Anne-Ruth Wertheim is a journalist and the author of various books including De gans eet het brood van de eenden op, mijn kindertijd in een Jappenkamp op Java (The Goose Snatches the Bread from the Ducks, My Childhood in a Japanese Prison Camp on Java, 1994). An Indonesian translation of the book was published in March 2008.She works with the concepts of exploitation/colonial racism (contempt or condescension) and cultural/competition racism (envy and distrust).

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