Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Friday, May 22, 2009

Pakistani Press Suspicious that Government Made up Swat Campaign against Taliban

There is something fishy about the Pakistani military's reporting of its campaign against the Taliban in Swat, according to the Pakistani press.

Dawn uses the phrase, "With scepticism growing about the progress of the month-old army offensive in the north-western region . . ." and notes, "From the air, there was little evidence of the fierce fighting and air strikes that the military claims have already killed more than 1,000 militants as well as some 60 soldiers."

Mingora, the largest town in Swat and the expected site of a Taliban-military showedown, just seemed like a ghost town to reporters brought up by the military.

Also suspicious is the report that Taliban in parts of Lower Dir are offering voluntarily to withdraw, in negotiations with local tribal chieftains.

Pakistani government officials had earlier claimed that military action had cleared most important centers in lower Dir of the Taliban.

Hundreds of thousands of Pakistani civilians have been displaced from Swat by the military's call for them to leave and allow its troops a clear shot at the Taliban, which it claims to have subsequently killed in the hundreds. Some photos of dead fighters were released.

But clearly some Pakistani journalists are entertaining dark suspicions that this campaign has largely been a shadow play, that the civilians were moved out so that there would be no eye witnesses, and that less has been going on militarily than has been claimed.

Has Swat been a virtual campaign, played out in headlines generated by Inter-Services Intelligence creative writers? Has less been actually going on than meets the eye?

Or is the Pakistani press being way too suspicious here, and creating a new conspiracy theory?

End/ (Not Continued)

8 Comments:

At 11:48 AM, Blogger fedora1978 said...

Seems to me that it's aimed at making Washington happy and keeping the money flowing. Drop some bombs, create lots of explosions, tell the Taliban to leave ahead of time, and get Hillary saying nice things about you.
So how much money have we thrown at Pakistan since 2001? And why then do things continue to deteriorate (or perhaps "deteriorate")?

 
At 12:49 PM, Blogger James-Speaks said...

"Has Swat been a virtual campaign, played out in headlines generated by Inter-Services Intelligence creative writers? Has less been actually going on than meets the eye?"The ghost of Prokofiev composes ....

"Or is the Pakistani press being way too suspicious here, and creating a new conspiracy theory?"Healthy suspicion counters leaders of dubious quality, such as Cheney. Personally, I'm a bit suspicious that just days after Obama told Israel to stop the settlements, preceded by the Pope's admonishments, that we now have a furor over Gitmo, and priestly abuses are once again in the forefront.

 
At 2:14 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Juan, this is an extremely irresponsible post based on facile arguments and a dubious source. So we have the testimonies of thousands of refugees, hundreds of witnesses to the slaughter of civilians (including the in-laws of my own sister who are still stranded there), against what?

"From the air, there was little evidence of the fierce fighting and air strikes that the military claims have already killed more than 1,000 militants as well as some 60 soldiers."

From the air? Maybe the artillergy that the military has been using on the town doesn't make big enough craters to impress this desktop bonaparate, but they are wreaking havoc on its civilian infrastructure. Perhaps he is disappointed that the condition of Swat doesn't look like the images of Hiroshima after the bomb. After all, aren't these the same people who cheered Musharraf on for the three years that he was devastating the tribal belt with Sharon-style collective punishment policies, losing their appetite for him only when the blowback finally threatened to engulf them?

But I question your judgment here in posting something as absurd as this:

"But clearly some Pakistani journalists are entertaining dark suspicions that this campaign has largely been a shadow play, that the civilians were moved out so that there would be no eye witnesses, and that less has been going on militarily than has been claimed."

A shadow play? Do you know what the population of Swat is? Unless the government expected every single Swati to evacuate, how exactly was this cunning plan supposed to work?

'Less going on...' What nonsense. Last year Jim Lobe told me that the 'liberal' Dr. Parvez Hoodbhoy was going around giving speeches in Washington that sounded more hawkish than any neocon. Sure, anything the military does will fall short of the mass destruction that the urban elites have been demanding (who appear to be the only voices that get an audience in the West, primarily because...well, they speak English).

If you rely on reports by the likes of Ahmed Rashid (who claims pakistanis welcome drone attacks) and Irfan Husain (who served as an advisor to an Israel lobby front group in Pakistan campaigning to get Pakistan to normalize relations with Israel) I'm afraid you won't be bringing much light to this subject.

 
At 2:19 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dear Juan, sorry about the rant. Of course it is the later. i.e., "[it] is the Pakistani press being way too suspicious here, and creating a new conspiracy theory"

The TV reporting incidentally is pretty decent. Most of the shows are archived here:
http://pkpolitics.com/

 
At 3:18 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why is it so difficult for any press reports from this area? Don't the local presses have informants in these areas?

And it wouldn't surprise me, if the army has elevated the casualties, but not for our benefit or theirs, instead, to try to draw more militants to the area because they are being hurt. Then again, maybe the militants left with the population. Either way, if there is a helicopter, truck, or bus going into the area, embed some journalists with the next shipment and leave them for a few days, see what they can report for the army. If what they say is true, 48 hours should prove it, if what they say is not true, we would see reports of how people are living there.

 
At 4:39 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's time we all re-read "Scoop."

 
At 5:30 PM, Blogger Unknown said...

Could be. It's murkier than murk from this remove. I would be surprised if the Taliban chose to commit suicide by standing and fighting a conventional army. If they were tactically astute, and there's no reason to believe they are not, they would leave behind a few die-hards to slow the advance (thus producing the dead fighters) and withdraw the bulk of their forces to fight another day, as guerilla fighters must. First rule of being a guerilla is never take and hold territory. Perhaps the Pakistani army was unable to cut off escape routes, or perhaps they were left open "accidentally." Casualties on both sides seem rather light for this kind of campaign. Perhaps both sides are just shadow-boxing for the Pakistani press and the U.S. government, with the ISI as puppeteer. I don't know enough to analyze it even if I had all the info, and it seems no one has that.

All I do know is that, in war, the real situation is very hard to ascertain, and virtually impossible when all your information comes from one of the belligerents.

 
At 7:58 PM, Blogger TripleDeuce said...

I don't doubt that the Pakistani army's claims are grossly exaggerated, as they have a history of doing just that.

The Pakistani army is not disciplined or cohesive enough to control parts of their own country.

The army is not really centralized, and real authority is not totally held by either the generals, the civilian government under Zardari, or the ISI.

It is beyond question that much of what they are doing is for Western media consumption. Pakistan has repeatedly engaged in this type of behavior with the United States - giving a show in return for US support of whoever is the power figure of the day - since the days of the dictator, General Zia; who, by the way, is the person most responsible for injecting Islam into every aspect of Pakistani society.

He did it decades ago during the years of the West's big bogyman, godless communism, for political reasons, convincing Washington that he was a commie hater, and therefore, worth endless support, no matter anything else.

Pakistani leaders, approach to the US has changed not at all. The same old scenario has simply morphed from bad guy communists to bad guy terrorists.

And the show goes on...

 

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