Iraqi Hopes for US Troop Withdrawal
One of the things that struck me about Friday night's debate on the time line for troop withdrawal was that McCain appeared to believe that how long US troops remain in Iraq and at what strength is a unilateral matter dictated by Washington. The government of prime minister Nuri al-Maliki is already trying to negotiate a timetable for US withdrawal as part of the proposed security agreement. A majority of parliament certainly supports a timetable.
Indeed, the Iraqi government wanted a 2010 deadline for withdrawal. Bush pushed for a delay until 2015 in part because he was afraid that agreeing to 2010 would make McCain look bad. The Iraqis were forced to accept 2011.
There is even less tolerance for a long term foreign troop presence among ordinary Iraqis, thousands of whom have lost relatives to US military operations. Aljazeera English reports on the death of a respected Iraqi academic in Baquba, shot at a US checkpoint.
One exception to this yearning to see the Americans go is the some of the Kurds, who as a minority trying to remain independent of Baghdad and able to confront Turkey. Some Kurds would very much like to keep US troops in Iraq. This Kurdish aspiration explains Iraqi foreign minister Hoshyar Zebari's continual announcements about there being no timetable in the security agreement. Clearly, the Shiite Arabs do want a timetable.
It is not just Iraqis. About 60 percent of Americans want a timeline for US troop withdrawal from Iraq.
Labels: Iraq
posted by Juan Cole @ 9/28/2008 12:32:00 AM
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Dear Professor Cole
This from this morning's Observer seems to summarise the problem well. The Wall Street debacle will leave the US with some unpalatable and hard decisions.
The UK saw this process after the second world war when they were essentially broke. The Marshal plan rescued them along with the rest of Europe. Mrs Thatcher however presided over a financial crisis that led to the UK becoming a colony of the US.
Will we now see a Chinese Marshal plan rescue the US and Europe and let the US become a colony of China?
Hobson's Choice
The choice looks like it comes down to Healthcare, Iraq and Afghanistan, the 300 ship Navy or Wall Street.
Still if you look on the bright side the unemployed can join the expanding Army and Marine Corps
'I think the biggest risk to the financial system is if it turns out to be not enough,' says Barry Bosworth, a former economic adviser to President Carter and a senior economist at The Brookings Institution, a left-leaning Washington think-tank.
.......
And that is the plan's biggest flaw. 'My biggest fear is that all of this money, and it really is a very large amount, is going to be spent and none of it will be used to stimulate the economy,' Bosworth says.
....... because America does not have $700bn of taxpayers' money. The government is in debt to the tune of $9.8 trillion. The entire sum will probably be borrowed from foreign governments and other purchasers of US Treasury bonds - which creates further problems.
'Borrowing every penny of this $700bn could have very serious consequences,' Bosworth says. 'Firstly, investors from other countries are going to see this as the biggest example yet of America's lack of financial discipline. They may then very well decide they should not invest so heavily here and diversify their portfolios to invest less in US Treasuries, dollars and US equities and more in European bonds and the euro.'
.....
Vincent Reinhart is a senior economist at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think-tank normally the antithesis of Brookings and its liberal scholars......
On the subject of the bail-out, however, he agrees almost entirely with Bosworth. In fact he goes even further, suggesting that what has been dubbed 'Tarp' (the Troubled Asset Relief Programme) will all but cripple whoever wins the presidential election in November.
'Who would want to be President and inherit this mess?' Reinhart asks, adding that most of the big decisions in the victor's entire four-year term will be made by the Bush administration before inauguration day in January. 'The whole four years will likely be bogged down in very dull financial regulation and legislation relating to this bill.'
What is more, with such immense pressure on public finances from the size of the debt incurred to fund it, Barack Obama can forget about spending increases and John McCain won't have any room for tax cuts. So whoever wins will be unable to fulfil many of their manifesto pledges.
The next President will also face the prospect of a global depression to manage, and with it the possibility of strained relations with foreign governments.
What is the value of Iraqi sovereignty if a future McCain or Obama Administration refuses withdrawing all American troops by year 2011? Meanwhile, the Baghdad government exercises little effective control in territories under the control of Sunni sheikhs or ethnic Kurds. It seems, only American hegemony can maintain a façade of an Iraqi state.
"thousands of whom have lost relatives to US military operations"
Hm, much more like MILLIONS (and prof. Cole knows it).
And, of course, the ONLY way USA rulers (dems including) would get out of Iraq - to be kicked out. And they will be.
The elephant in the room is the US tax proceeds which are collapsing already. The accounting delays are masking that fact, but soon the US government will be hit by the mother of all credit crunches. Millions of emplyess, direct or working for government contracts, will have to be laid off, further reducing tax income. Borrowing, the norm in a recession, is not an option because the very poor credit rating of the USA.
The next president will be forced to close down bases abroad and, most of all, end the cash black-hole in Iraq. This is not a matter of choice. It is how the British Empire had to shut down after WW2.
Dear Professor Cole
The UK nespapers are quite apocalyptic about the impact of the Credit Bailout this morning.
I once suggested that the apropriate model for the Bush(II) presidency might be Charles the XII of Sweden who attempted to emulate his uncle Gustavus Adolphus and failed. How ironic that the Russians should send the battlecruiser Peter the great to visit Vnezuela this week.(Your readers can google Poltava if they want to know more).
This analogy looks to be borne out in practice
Cassandra Speaks
The fate of empires is very often sealed by the interaction of war and debt. That was true of the British Empire, whose finances deteriorated from the First World War onwards, and of the Soviet Union. Defeat in Afghanistan and the economic burden of trying to respond to Reagan's technically flawed but politically extremely effective Star Wars programme were vital factors in triggering the Soviet collapse. Despite its insistent exceptionalism, America is no different. The Iraq War and the credit bubble have fatally undermined America's economic primacy. The US will continue to be the world's largest economy for a while longer, but it will be the new rising powers that, once the crisis is over, buy up what remains intact in the wreckage of America's financial system.
......
An American retreat from Iraq will leave Iran the regional victor. How will Saudi Arabia respond? Will military action to forestall Iran acquiring nuclear weapons be less or more likely? China's rulers have so far been silent during the unfolding crisis. Will America's weakness embolden them to assert China's power or will China continue its cautious policy of 'peaceful rise'? At present, none of these questions can be answered with any confidence. What is evident is that power is leaking from the US at an accelerating rate. Georgia showed Russia redrawing the geopolitical map, with America an impotent spectator.
America is obviously an expanding empire. The boundaries of an empire are marked by alliances and client states. America is spending a trillion plus dollars to bring Iraq inside its imperial boundaries. I doubt it will give that up graciously.
What absolutely astounded me was Obama non-reference to Maliki's statements about troop withdrawal NOR any mention that the overwhelming majority of Iraqi's want the U.S. to leave. Still can't believe it.
The U.S. has now committed itself to a 'debt ceiling' that is 70+ per cent of it's annual GDP. And no one is talking about what happens when it is no longer considered the world's reserve currency.
The world is on the verge of another 'Great Depression' (Pakistan is crying for financial assistance as it has basically exhausted it's financial reserves and -obviously- such creates conditions for the breeding of terrorists) and those responsible are NOT being prosecuted.
"Not with a bang, but with a whimper".
I was indeed surprised and dismayed that Obama did not point out during the debate that the Iraqi government was insisting on a timetable for US withdrawal, and that the Bush Administration was negoiating such a timetable at that very moment.
And also that Obama did not say that "McCain doesn't seem to understand," or won't admit, that the invasion was a mistake in the first place (and not just because of underestimating the number of troops needed or the lack of post-invasion planning), and thus that we need to be very worried that McCain might do something similar if he is elected.
What about Zebari's comment that he was worried that the bank bailout would cause [Obama?] to pull the troops out too quickly?
Sounds like 'progress' due to the McCain Surge is likely to crumble.
Frankly, I want the sham to last a year so we can get the hell out of there without anarchy breaking out.
"What about Zebari's comment that he was worried that the bank bailout would cause [Obama?] to pull the troops out too quickly?"
Zebari is an uber opportunist who has never thought about anything but his own worthless neck.
President Obama won election last november in great part because he promised to bring the troops home from Iraq. As soon as he won the election the statement went from bring them home, to remove them from Iraq. At the same time he's decided to build up our military presents in Afghanistan. Guess where those troops he pulls out of Iraq are going? So far this new man in office has backed down on several campaign promises. I believe except for his silver, honey coated, speaking ability. He reminds me of slippery Bill. If he wore a mask. I couldn't tell him from George W. Bush. All he's doing is adding lots of honey to Bush's policies. I sure hope thre's a HELL!
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