Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Al-Maliki Insists US Troops be Out by 2011;
Iraqi Christian Refugees at Risk

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki of Iraq insisted again Monday that all foreign troops must be out of Iraq by 2011 and that US troops in Iraq must come under the authority of Iraqi courts. These demands appear to have emanated in the first instance from Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani of Najaf and from Sayyid Muqtada al-Sadr, now studying in Iran. They may also reflect a secret deal al-Maliki may have struck with Iran on his visit to Tehran last spring. Iran has been restraining the Mahdi Army, allowing al-Maliki to assert control in places such as Maysan Province (said to be oil-rich). You have to wonder what the quid pro quo is.

Al-Maliki implied that the US had agreed to these two demands, but a White House spokesman denied it.

My guess is that in the end Bush blinks on these two demands, or, as one wag on Reddit.com put it, "surrenders."

A young female suicide bomber was caught by police in Baquba before she could detonate her payload. She said she was fitted for the bomb by her husband's female relatives, though her own mother appears to have played a leading role, as well.

Anti-war.com says, "At least 16 Iraqis were killed and 14 more were wounded in the latest round of violence. One U.S. soldier was killed in a small arms attack in Baghdad." See below.

Saving Iraqi Christian refugees. PM al-Maliki wants them to return to Iraq, but most refugee NGOs and UNHCR insist that it is not safe enough for them to do that. I was just in Amman, Jordan, looking into the refugee issue. Some 10% of the Iraqis there are Christians. There is no rush to return because they just don't trust that the militias are gone or the ethnic cleansing at an end.

Likewise, al-Hayat reports in Arabic that a major reason for Iraqis to flee their country is lack of basic services such as potable water, electricity, fuel and reliable health care. The paper quotes Muhammad Laith, who took his family of five to Amman from the tony Hayy Zayounah in Baghdad. Laith, who works in the advertising and publicity sector, said, "Life in Iraq is still hard, despite the slight improvement in security. There is a big deficiency in services in all areas and even in the nice neighborhoods. This deficiency is the fault of the government and concerned circles, which cannot fulfill their duties because of endemic fraud."

MP Ghufran al-Sa'edi said that there was no difference between failure of government to deliver basic services and militias' ethnic cleansing campaigns, in their effect on emigration of refugees.

Reuters reports political violence in Iraq on Monday:

'BAGHDAD - A U.S. soldier died after being shot during a patrol in northern Baghdad, the U.S. military said in a statement. . .

TIKRIT - A roadside bomb exploded near a convoy carrying Major-General Hamad Namis Yasin, the police chief of Salahuddin province, wounding six of his guards in central Tikrit, 150 km (95 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

SHIRQAT - A roadside bomb killed two bystanders in the town of Shirqat, 300 km (190 miles) north of Baghdad, police and hospital sources said.

MUSSAYAB - A roadside bomb was planted near the house of Basim Mohammed, a Lieutenant-Colonel of the government facilities guard force, killing his daughter and wounding two sons on Sunday in Mussayab, 60 km (40 miles) south of Baghdad, police said . . .

MOSUL - Gunmen killed a man working as a guard for the dean of Mosul University in a drive-by shooting in eastern Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.'


McClatchy gives more detail on events in Baghdad:
' Baghdad

- Mortars hit the International Zone(IZ) in downtown Baghdad. No casualties reported.

- Around 7 am an IED detonated near an Iraqi army check point near Mr.Milk supermarket in Mansour neighborhood (west Baghdad). One officer was injured.

- Around 8 am a bomb planted in a car detonated in Jamia’a neighborhood. Three family members were injured in that incident.

- Around 11 am a bomb left inside a mini bus detonated in Adhemiyah neighborhood(north Baghdad). Only the driver was injured in that incident.

- A roadside bomb detonated in Adel neighborhood(west Baghdad). One person was injured.

- Mortars hit Ghazaliyah neighborhood. A petrol station got fire by one of the mortar shells.

- Gunmen opened fire on an army patrol. 2 soldiers were killed and another one was wounded.

- Police found 2 dead bodies in Baghdad. 1was in Sleikh(north Baghdad) and 1 was found in Mansour(west Baghdad)'

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10 Comments:

At 2:21 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Americans can't believe that their puppet Iraqi government can kick them out of the country.

They are trying several tracks in parallel to circumvent that. One is the false assertion that the exit must be agreed by both sides and therefore the Iraqis are not allowed to tell them to leave. This is why the WH keeps saying that negotiations are continuing.

The other track was sending Ms (waste of space) Rice to pressure them and she has clearly failed.

They are also trying to use the Awakening force as a big stick, basically threatining the Iraqi government to unleash the Sunni militants leading to a civil war. But the Shi'as (including Sistani; Sadr; Maliki; Ja'fari and others) have been coordintaing with the Sunnis for a long time, so this is a no-go too.

Ironically, Bush may actually end the war earlier and more fully than the supposedly anti-war Obama is advocating.

 
At 4:30 AM, Blogger eurofrank said...

Dear Professor Cole

Stratfor comments that Azerbaijan has switched shipment of oil from Georgia to Iran. He also comments on the Naval buildup in the Black Sea and speculates that it could become a NATO lake.

This leads to the second situation: Iran will be able to export more oil instead of using so much domestically. Iran is the second-largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, behind regional rival Saudi Arabia. However, thanks to a more favorable investment climate, Saudi Arabia produces nearly triple the amount of oil. Iran freeing up some of its oil for export is something Riyadh will definitely notice — and not happily.

This plays into not just Middle Eastern regional politics, but also Iran’s ability to hold its own during negotiations with the West, particularly the United States. Iran has been under pressure domestically, with many issues tied to its fragile energy situation and the sanctions the West has imposed. But while Russia’s moves in the Caucasus are grabbing the United States’ attention during Washington’s tough negotiations with Tehran, the ripple effects could help weaken the United States’ pressure on Iran

There really are too many things happening at once for a lame duck administration to handle.

I am sure the US population is as enthusiastic as us Europeans to see themselves comitted to yet another war based on a patently obvious actions of an agent provocateur.

 
At 5:07 AM, Blogger eurofrank said...

Dear Professor Cole

Are we seeing the good old bankrupt dictators "Foreign Adventure to distract the masses from the dire economic situation" ploy?

 
At 6:43 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki of Iraq insisted again Monday that all foreign troops must be out of Iraq by 2011 and that US troops in Iraq must come under the authority of Iraqi courts. These demands appear to have emanated in the first instance from Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani of Najaf and from Sayyid Muqtada al-Sadr, now studying in Iran. They may also reflect a secret deal al-Maliki may have struck with Iran on his visit to Tehran last spring. Iran has been restraining the Mahdi Army, allowing al-Maliki to assert control in places such as Maysan Province (said to be oil-rich). You have to wonder what the quid pro quo is.

Then again these demands might have emanated from the hearts and minds of every single Iraqi, Sunni or Shiia, in unison. Dontcha think? Get the aggressor, the occupier, out of our country?

Perhaps al Maliki realizes that the quid pro quo is that he gets to live if comes up to this standard or to die if he does not.

Or perhaps al Maliki, an Iraqi himself, hates the aggressors and occupiers every bit as much as every other Iraqi and wants them the hell out of his country as soon as he can manage it playing his own weak hand himself?

 
At 7:05 AM, Blogger eurofrank said...

Dear Professor Cole

Sending a destroyer to Poti to upstage the Democrats is just plain warmongering.

Well now we are about to see if the waters off Poti have been mined.


Gunboat Diplomacy is back



Oh dear it is back to looking up international law on the passage of warships in combat zones.

 
At 9:00 AM, Blogger eurofrank said...

Dear Professor Cole

Are we seeing the election year surprise?

I am astonished that we can have ended up in war by accident in a two week period.

 
At 10:46 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/26/washington/26diplo.html?ref=world&pagewanted=print

August 26, 2008

U.N. Envoy's Ties to Pakistani Are Questioned
By HELENE COOPER and MARK MAZZETTI

WASHINGTON — Zalmay Khalilzad, the American ambassador to the United Nations, is facing angry questions from other senior Bush administration officials over what they describe as unauthorized contacts with Asif Ali Zardari, a contender to succeed Pervez Musharraf as president of Pakistan.

Mr. Khalilzad had spoken by telephone with Mr. Zardari, the leader of the Pakistan Peoples Party, several times a week for the past month until he was confronted about the unauthorized contacts, a senior United States official said. Other officials said Mr. Khalilzad had planned to meet with Mr. Zardari privately next Tuesday while on vacation in Dubai, in a session that was canceled only after Richard A. Boucher, the assistant secretary of state for South Asia, learned from Mr. Zardari himself that the ambassador was providing "advice and help." ...

[what is this about?]

 
At 11:21 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dear Juan,

As for the quid pro quo to which you refer, it might very well be the forcing of MEK (Mojahedin-e Khalq) out of Iraq. I personally believe that members of MEK should be granted refugee status in the West, enabling them to live normal lives in safety away from Iran. Although Iran has announced that those members of MEK who have not been directly involved in killing Iranians (e.g. during the Iran-Iraq war) will be given amnesty and can return to Iran, personally I do not believe that any former member of MEK will ever be safe in Iran; even though the state may not undertake anything against these members, it is conceivable that some Iranians who have lost their children during the Iran-Iraq war may never forgive them for having participated in the killings of their children. In Iran, members of MEK are commonly known as "Monafeqin" (Traitors - they earned this title from Ayatollah Khomeini) and are in general deeply hated.

The following video shows Masud Rajavi, the actual leader of MEK (the nominal leader being Maryam Rajavi, Masud Rajavi's wife) kissing Saddam Hossein and shaking hands with him in 1986, two years before the end of the Iran-Iraq war:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8QZFxGizbUg

As the following video shows, the leadership of MEK may be guilty of keeping many of its members in Camp Ashraf in Iraq against their wishes (of course this video may very well be an Iranian propaganda video):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UUm1XbBeHo


BF

 
At 4:39 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/27/world/asia/27herat.html?hp=&pagewanted=print

August 27, 2008

60 Children Among Afghan Dead, U.N. Finds
By CARLOTTA GALL

A U.N. human rights team has found “convincing evidence” that some 90 civilians were killed in air strikes on a village in western Afghanistan.

[Who's winning?]

 
At 1:28 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dear Juan,

And this is a sign of the quid pro quo to which I referred last Tuesday:

http://radiozamaaneh.com/news/2008/08/post_6156.html

A brief summary of the report (which is in Persian):

"The Ministry of Defence of Iraq has announced that it has transferred the security of Camp Ashraf from the American forces to Iraqi forces. ... He [General Al-Askari, the spokesman for the MOD] further added `Our forces have been stationed in the area for protection and the rumours that this aims at occupying the Camp are baseless.'"

As is well-known, we should never believe a rumour until it's been officially denied.

Kind regards,

BF.

 

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