Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Monday, July 21, 2008

Obama in Iraq;
Der Spiegel Proves al-Maliki Story Correct;
Series of Bombings hit Baghdad

Senator Barack Obama is in Iraq for consultations with American military commanders and Iraqi leaders.

Despite all the talk about Iraq being "calm," I'd like to point out that the month just before the last visit Barack Obama made to Iraq (he went in January, 2006), there were 537 civilian and ISF Iraqi casualties. In June of this year, 2008, there were 554 according to AP. These are official statistics gathered passively that probably only capture about 10 percent of the true toll.

That is, the Iraqi death toll is actually still worse now than the last time Obama was in Iraq! (See the bombings and shootings listed below for Sunday). The hype around last year's troop escalation obscures a simple fact: that Obama formed his views about the need for the US to leave Iraq at a time when its security situation was very similar to what it is now! Why a return to the bad situation in late 05 and early 06 should be greeted by the GOP as the veritable coming of the Messiah is beyond me. You have people like Joe Lieberman saying silly things like if it weren't for the troop escalation, Obama wouldn't be able to visit Iraq. Uh, he visited it before the troop escalation, just fine.

The troop escalation, which actually allowed the ethnic cleansing of the Sunnis of Baghdad and the expulsion of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis from the country, has largely been pushed as propaganda by the White House and the AEI. Here's an example of how their propaganda works. As is usual with news it does not like, the Bush administration attempted to muddy the waters this weekend regarding the interview of PM Nuri al-Maliki with Der Spiegel in which he expressed approval of Barack Obama's plan to get US troops out of Iraq within 16 months of next January. Al-Maliki told Der Spiegel in response to a question about how long US troops would be in his country,


'Maliki: As soon as possible, as far as we're concerned. U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama talks about 16 months. That, we think, would be the right timeframe for a withdrawal, with the possibility of slight changes.

SPIEGEL: Is this an endorsement for the US presidential election in November? Does Obama, who has no military background, ultimately have a better understanding of Iraq than war hero John McCain?

Maliki: Those who operate on the premise of short time periods in Iraq today are being more realistic. Artificially prolonging the tenure of US troops in Iraq would cause problems. Of course, this is by no means an election endorsement. Who they choose as their president is the Americans' business. But it's the business of Iraqis to say what they want. '


Ali al-Dabbagh, who is usually described as al-Maliki's spokesman but actually seems to work for the CENTCOM or Pentagon Middle East command, was trotted out to make vague statements about Der Spiegel's having mistranslated or misinterpreted what al-Maliki said. This denial was issued through CENTCOM! When the original demand came from al-Maliki for a timetable for US withdrawal, it was al-Dabbagh who reinterpreted it as a 'time horizon.' Al-Dabbagh was contradicted by National Security Counsellor Muwaffaq al-Rubaie, who seems actually closer in this thinking to al-Maliki. My guess is that al-Dabbagh has been recruited by some agency in Washington, DC, to explain away al-Maliki's statements whenever they contradict Bush's.

Der Spiegel stood by its story. The text of Der Spiegel's statement is here. It turns out that the translator involved works for al-Maliki, not for Der Spiegel, and so presumably knew what the prime minister's words meant in Arabic. And for the piece de resistance, it turns out that Der Spiegel has an audiotape of the Arabic of the interview, which they leaked to The New York Times. Sabrina Tavernise and Jeff Zeleny write:

' But the interpreter for the interview works for Mr. Maliki’s office, not the magazine. . . The following is a direct translation from the Arabic of Mr. Maliki’s comments by The Times: “Obama’s remarks that — if he takes office — in 16 months he would withdraw the forces, we think that this period could increase or decrease a little, but that it could be suitable to end the presence of the forces in Iraq.” He continued: “Who wants to exit in a quicker way has a better assessment of the situation in Iraq.” '


But you see, it does not matter that al-Maliki actually said what he said. It does not matter that Der Spiegel can prove it. All that matters is that the Goebbelses around Bush and Cheney have managed to muddy the waters and produce doubt, taking the hard edge off the interview. Even AFP, the usually skeptical French wire service, asserted that al-Maliki had "denied" the accuracy of the Der Spiegel interview! Of course, al-Maliki has done no such thing. CENTCOM ventriloquising al-Dabbagh engaged in the denial, and a very vague one at that.

That is the way propaganda works, to obscure the truth and ensure it can be denied. Some wingnut even tried to pressure me to retract the little sentence I had written on the affair yesterday, on the grounds of "al-Dabbagh's" mendacious and ridiculous assertions. Our information system is so corrupt and easily manipulated that even a clumsy ploy can obscure the truth and bully the journalists.

Aljazeera International reports on the conflict between Obama and McCain on a timetable for US troop withdrawals from Iraq.



Over the weekend, the Sunni fundamentalist Iraqi Accord Front rejoined the al-Maliki government. It had left last summer over accusations that al-Maliki ignored Sunni sensitivities, refused to speak to his vice president, Tariq al-Hashimi, coddled Shiite militias that ethnically cleansed Sunnis, and kept tens of thousands of Sunnis in prison without charges or due process. As Xinhua notes, al-Hashimi's Iraqi Islamic Party, one of three components of the Iraqi Accord Front coalition of Sunni parties, will face great competition in the provincial elections from the US-created Awakening Councils, which are paid and armed by the US military.

Speaking of this fall's provincial elections, the country's elections commission announced Sunday that they might have to be postponed, given that Parliament has still not passed the enabling legislation. The election law is mired in debates over the mixed province of Kirkuk in the north, and whether it should hold provincial elections along with the other provinces. The province is claimed by the Kurdistan Regional Government, which wants to annex it, even though the Turkmen and Arab populations do not want to join semi-autonomous Kurdistan (where the state schools are no longer Arabophone).

Al-Zaman writing in Arabic says that the new date has been set as December 22. It is official: The provincial elections in Iraq will not occur in time to affect the US presidential race. E.g., if the Sadrists sweep to power in many Shiite provinces, that could have been a factor in the US polls. Not going to happen.

A new airport, funded in important part by Iran has opened at the Shiite holy city of Najaf. It will likely bring millions of pilgrims from Iran, Pakistan, India and elsewhere to the shrine of Imam Ali, the son-in-law and cousin of the Prophet Muhammad. American authorities worried about Iranians in Iraq may as well just lay back; with millions going in and out, tracking them is going to be rather difficult.



Catch Tomdispatch.com on professional warfighters and on the Pentagon's fuel consumption.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Sunday:
' Baghdad

An adhesive IED stuck to a civilian car detonated in Kem neighbourhood, Adhamiyah, northern Baghdad early Sunday killing the driver.

A roadside bomb exploded in Karrada, near al-Rahibat Hospital at 7.30 a.m. killing one civilian, injuring three.

A roadside bomb targeted a U.S. military convoy on Qanat Street in the direction of Qahira, northeast Baghdad at around 10.30 a.m. Sunday. No casualties were reported.

A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in Qahira, near al-Nidaa Mosque at noon injuring five people including two policemen.

A parked car bomb detonated in Damascus intersection, central Baghdad at 6 p.m. killing one civilian, injuring seven people including one policemen and one baby girl.

Three unidentified bodies were found in Baghdad today by Iraqi Police; one in Amil, one in Baladiyat and one in Hurriyah.

Gunmen threw a hand grenade at a car selling alcoholic beverages, parked on the Jadriyah Bridge at 9 p.m. injuring four civilians.

A roadside bomb exploded in al-Jaara in Madain, to the south east of Baghdad injuring three civilians including a little girl.

Diyala

A roadside bomb targeted a pick up truck in Wajihiyah district, 20 km to the east of Baquba at 6.45 p.m. killing two policemen in plain clothes.

Nineveh

A suicide car bomb targeted a site where trucks carrying construction materials for the U.S military stop at 4 p.m. killing two foreign private security contractors.

Gunmen in a speeding car open fire upon a group of civilians in al-Hadbaa neighbourhood, Mosul city at 6 p.m. killing three.

Gunmen in a speeding car open fire upon a civilian in Aden neighbourhood at 7.30 p.m. killing him on his doorstep.

One policeman killed by sniper fire in al-Masarif neighbourhood, Mosul city at around 7.30 p.m.

Anbar

Iraqi Army servicemen captured a suicide bomber targeting a checkpoint in central Ramadi. The suicide vest was defused and the suicide bomber detained.

Salahuddin

An American Special Force raided the residence of Khalaf Issa Turk in al-Asri neighbourhood, Baiji at dawn, Sunday and opened fire upon Husam Hamed Hmoud al-Qaissi, son of the Governor of Salahuddin Province while he was asleep in the guest room and also opened fire upon Auday Khalaf Issa al-Qaissi, his cousin killing them both, and detained two others without giving any explanation, said a security source in Salahuddin Province. The American military said its forces shot two armed men during a raid because they felt they had "hostile intent". The statement added that the forces also injured and captured an al-Qaida financer during the operation.

Kirkuk

A roadside bomb targeted a police patrol in Tayaran Square, central Kirkuk Sunday morning, injuring one policeman.

Basra

Basra Police found the body of a 24 year old female in Jazair neighbourhood, central Basra Sunday. She was shot four times.

Labels:

12 Comments:

At 5:19 AM, Blogger Christiane said...

Congratulation on the remarkable deconstruction of US-government propaganda concerning Al'Maliki's interview with Der Spiegel.

I have digged the original interview in der Spiegel and I find that the following statements of Al'Maliki are even more interesting. Here is what he said :

Seine Regierung wünsche sich "ein langfristiges strategisches Abkommen mit den USA, in dem wir die Grundlagen unserer Wirtschafts- und Kulturbeziehungen regeln", das Sicherheitsabkommen über die Stationierung von Truppen, das derzeit neu ausgehandelt wird, solle hingegen nur noch kurzfristig gelten, sagte Maliki.

Translation : His (Al'Maliki's) government wants a "longlasting strategic agreement with the US, one in which we lay the bases of our economic and cultural relationships", the security agreement concerning the presence of troops, which is now renegotiated, should, however, only extends over a short term.


Die ersten Entwürfe seien nicht akzeptabel gewesen, er sei aber zuversichtlich, dass ein Abkommen über den Zeitraum für den Abzug der internationalen Truppen noch während der Amtszeit von Präsident George W. Bush erzielt werden könne. Maliki sagte: "Die Amerikaner haben sich bis jetzt schwer getan, einem konkreten Zeitplan für den Abzug zuzustimmen, weil ihnen das wie das Eingeständnis einer Niederlage vorkommt. So ist es aber nicht. Wenn wir uns einigen, dann zeugt das nicht von einer Niederlage, sondern von einem Sieg, von einem schweren Schlag, den wir al-Qaida und den Milizen zugefügt haben."

Translation : The first proposals were not acceptable, but he is confident that an agreement over a time table for the withdrawal of the international troops could be reached before the end of the mandate of President GW Bush. Maliki said : "The Americans have difficulties to agree to a concrete timetable for withdrawal because they view it like the admission of defeat. It is not so. If we come together, then that is not a defeat, but instead a victory, a hard blow which we struck against Al'Quaeda and the Militiae.

Maliki beklagte auch, "dass es meinem Land nicht möglich sein soll, Vergehen oder Verbrechen der US-Soldaten an unserer Bevölkerung zu ahnden", das sei "ein grundsätzliches Problem" seiner Regierung.

Translation : Maliki also complained "that (under the US proposal) it would not be possible for my country to punish crimes or delicts commited by US troops against our people", which is "a fundamental problem" for his government.

 
At 5:47 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bush, and all the other Iraq war architects, are panic-stricken. This is the first time it has become clear to them that the game is up and they will be thrown out of Iraq, by their own puppets!!

They started by parading Talabani and Zibari (Iraq's President and Foriegn Minister, both anti-Iraq pro-US Kurds) in the US saying that the the Iraqis want the US to stay in Iraq indefinitely, which McCain quoted repeatedly. Then Bush called Maliki via cctv to twist his arm but Maliki can't help him. Then you have the denial by Ali al-Dabbagh/CENTOCM. The latest is a visit by Crocker to Erbil and a joint statement by him and Barzani (the President of the autonomous Kurdish region and a nasty anti-Iraq operative) in support of a long-term deal. But all these tactics are pathetic with no chance of success.

McCellan, WH ex-spokesman said that Bush is in permanent election mode. People didn't get the real meaning of that, which is that Bush uses the cheap propaganda which can work on simpletons in the Bible belt even when dealing with experts and very skilled foriegners, like Putin or the behind-the-scenes Iranian leaders. The ridiculous charade in trying to get 25 million Iraqi to accept permanent occupation shown above is a good example of that.

 
At 10:37 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi Juan,

I had been wondering this all weekend and was on Jed Report and saw he was curious as well.

"I wonder how "time horizons" translates into Arabic as opposed to "timetables." Heck, I wonder if they even bothered to use a different word, or if it was just a ploy for the English language press? That would be interesting to know. Anybody out there have any idea?"

Any thoughts on this?

-Manamongst Hussein

 
At 10:56 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ali al-Dabbagh, no other, said today that the Iraqi government wants the foriegn troops out by 2010. No buts and no ifs.

See, in Arabic:
http://www.radiosawa.com/arabic_news.aspx?id=2015401&cid=24

Note: Radia Sawa is US-funded!

What a great slap in the face of CENTCOM and the entire American Establishment.

 
At 1:25 PM, Blogger karlof1 said...

I must echo Christiane's Kudos and also say a great big Thanks for the additional interpretation. In it we learn that Maliki declares victory over both al-Qaeda and the militias, which removes any rationale for further US troop occupation and essentially snubs McCains election rhetoric that the US must stay in Iraq until victory is achieved. Maliki may not have endorsed Obama, but he certainly caved McCain's Iraq rationale, which surely prompted the BushCo propaganda flurry. I can easily vision an alternative headline:

Al-Maliki Declares Victory in Iraq! US Troop Presence No Longer Required

Which is essentially what he said.

 
At 1:41 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

So Barack Obama goes to Afghanistan and is all war forever and it is all right because well he is Obama and Obama can be for war forever and we will say he is for peace because he is Obama.

I understand, but I have made my mind up finally. I will never vote for Obama for President. Never.

 
At 2:42 PM, Blogger MonsieurGonzo said...

ref : “The troop escalation, which actually allowed the ethnic cleansing of the Sunnis of Baghdad and the expulsion of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis from the country, has largely been pushed as propaganda by the White House and the AEI.

Quite true; and as you have noted before, Professor, that propaganda surrounding The Surge has had the hideous effect of distilling the "success" of American troops down to a singular image = the gruesome metric of their KIA attrition rate: ie., to fail is to become an unlucky soldier and get shot or blown to pieces, or horribly maimed; "winning", apparently means surviving, more -or- less intact...

...‘The Mission’ for most now meaning nothing more. Indeed, I daresay by simply doing your duty Over There, coming home whole ~ you will be regarded Over Here as a War Hero. What is quite enlightening is to read the soldiers' own descriptions of what The Surge was like, and from their own accounts we quickly realize that they were, for the most part spectators, self-absorbed with their own defenses, living and moving around in heavily armored, defensive postures ~ rather than being active participants, except for their massive payrolls and payouts to IAF regular and ‘Militia’ irregulars.

imho, True history writ should note that what really "surged" was not troops or combat, or violence, or peace, but payola : The Surge is all a bluster about a Mission to massively bribe the Iraqi people to behave; to cease and desist to resist The Occupation. And in that regard, those who survived can rightly say that The Surge was a "success".

 
At 4:22 PM, Blogger eurofrank said...

Dear Professor Cole.

Perhaps you might like to republish your views on the Afghanistan adventure.

At present I don't understand the war objectives of the invasion.

I don't understand the geographical boundaries of the operation.

I don't understand the total silliness of expanding an army with its supply routes controlled by the Russians and the Pakistanis.

I don't understand why all and sundry seem to want to rush off to Afghanistan.

George Patton once said that if everybody is thinking the same then somebody isn't thinking.

Perhaps you would send Senator Obama a link to Barnett Rubin's excellent pieces and get him to count to 10 before he gets suckered into a shooting war with the Pakistanis somewhere along the Durand line.

 
At 5:22 PM, Blogger Miles said...

Juan,
Your numbers of 537 and 554 Iraqi civilian and ISF casualties in 12/05 and 6/08 are cherry-picked and unrepresentative of the larger trend, I'm afraid. Check back at icasualties.org and you can very clearly see a strong downward trend. Also, the fact that you used the AP number for 6/08 when the icasualties number for that month is about 100 less than the AP's is fairly disingenuous. If you are going to cite a source for numbers, at least be consistent and don't compare numbers for two different months from two different sources, especially when one source has them both.

 
At 8:40 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The REAL REASONS "THE SURGE" worked:
- Millions Iraqis dead.
- Millions of refugees in other countries.
- Millions of refugees ethnic cleansed from their homes and neighborhoods.
- Cement barriers walling off streets and neighborhoods
- $300.00 per month the Army is paying the Sunni and other religious Arab groups not to shoot at our soldiers.
- Cease-fire of Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi army while they reorganize and regroup.

All anyone needs to know about the Bush/Cheney war against Iraq and the occupation can be summed up:
- As of 7/15/08: 4,124 plus American Military deaths
- As of 7/15/08: 30,409 plus maimed American Military members (not counting those who were injured in Iraq but died out of the country)
- 1,245,538 dead Iraqi citizens ( children, mothers, fathers, whole families wiped out)
- 1.4 Million+ Iraqi refugees in other ME countries living in abodominal conditions
- 1.2 Million+ Iraqi refugees within Iraq living in abodominal conditions
- No clean water
- Little to no electricity
- Little sanitation and sewage in the streets
- Little to sub-standard medical care
- Kidnappings and rapes
- Orphaned children by the thousands
- Children unable to attend school
- Young girls being forced to sell their bodies to gain money to help what is left of their families
- Corruption

On to victory

 
At 12:32 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Barack Obama's plan to get US troops out of Iraq within 16 months of next January."

As I am sure you realize, Obama does NOT plan to get US troops out of Iraq. What he plans to do is reconfigure the occupation, using a smaller force. Given the "missions" he has described for this smaller occupation force, he will not even be able to withdraw all the combat troops, as he claims he will - unless, of course, he plans to use mechanics and cooks for combat missions.

It is misleading to speak of Obama "getting US troops out of Iraq within 16 months" when what he really intends to do is reduce their number.

 
At 7:32 PM, Blogger DarkGravity said...

Wow you guys have a hard tim accepting the fact that Maliki said he didn't say that. You had no problem when he was "supporting" your opinion, but now that he isn't you're falling all over yourselves trying to deny it.

And by the way, it's really crazy how you use a statistical blip to try and save your candidate from admitting he was wrong. Even the AP source you point to says the IRAQI military says violence is down some 85% in 2008 compared with 2007. Hey- a decrease in violen in only ONE year. They didn't even get into violence reduction since 2006.

Stop trying to manipulate the facts to suit your own pruposes.

 

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