Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Thursday, June 19, 2008

They're Baaack;
It is Politically Inconvenient to Acknowledge . . .

The consortium of American and European oil companies that had dominated Iraqi petroleum in the twentieth century is returning to Iraq to carry out service agreements aimed at expanding production in four southern oil fields.

Jonathan Steele reports,


' But the deals, known as service contracts, are unusual, said Greg Mutitt, co-director of Platform, an oil industry research group. "Normally such service contracts are carried out by specialist companies ... The majors are not normally interested in such deals, preferring to invest in projects that give them a stake in ownership of extracted oil and the potential for large profits. The explanation is that they see them as a stepping stone..."

He said the companies' lawyers had been insisting "on extension rights under which each company would get first preference on any future contract for the field on which it has worked".'


Patrick Cockburn has more.


Courtesy BBC

Bush and Cheney clearly went into Iraq primarily in order to put US petroleum firms in precisely this favored position. The US power elite wanted this outcome and connived actively at it. As Alan Greenspan put it, “I am saddened that it is politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone knows: the Iraq war is largely about oil.”

Poor Iraq has been looted, occupied, and disrupted by the industrialized West for a century because of the curse of its oil wealth. The Iraqi Petroleum Company was until 1929 the Turkish Petroleum Company since it began in 1912 with a concession from the Ottoman Empire, which ruled Iraq before the 1917 British conquest. The victors of World War I used their victory to leverage themselves into Iraqi oil. The Ottomans had thrown in with Germany and Austria in 1914, and were defeated by the victorious allies. Iraq was considered a successor state to the Ottomans in its territory and so shared in the ignominy and disadvantage of defeat. A German company was one of the original concessionaries, but the French usurped its shares as a spoil of war; that was how the Compagnie Francaise des Petroles, now Total, got into Iraq. And, as one of the victors in the war, the US pressed claims to enter the concession, with its oil majors eventually being awarded a quarter of the shares.



The San Remo conference of 1920 deeply disappointed Iraqis by awarding the country to Britain as a League of Nations Mandate, or colony with term limits. The Iraqis had wanted immediate independence, and launched a months-long revolution against the British that summer. San Remo did set aside a 20 percent share in the oil concession for Iraqis, but the Western petroleum companies refused to allow implementation of that provision, locking Iraqis out of any possession of their own petroleum. They did offer to pay the Iraqi government a small royalty based on their profits, but said that would not kick in for 20 years! The Iraqi Petroleum Company was notorious for not training Iraqis to fill management positions, implementing a typical colonial business model.

In 1958 the British-installed monarchy was overthrown in Baghdad by an officers' coup that was accompanied by popular revolt. Gen. Abd al-Karim Qasim [Kassim] in 1961 issued Law 80, revoking the Iraqi Petroleum Company's claims on undeveloped fields in the rest of Iraq, beyond the ones they already had developed. He set March, 1963, as the date on which the decree would be implemented.



In February, 1963, he was overthrown by the Baath Party. It is rumored that the US was complicit with that coup, and some Baathists who made it said so. The US also certainly did have foreknowledge of it.

If Washington thought the Baath would revoke Law 80, however, they were disappointed. The Baath did cooperate in destroying the Iraqi Communist Party, but it kept Qasim's oil law. The Iraq Petroleum Company retaliated by keeping Iraq's production relatively low and so starving the government of oil rents, and by not giving Baghdad as favorable terms as some other OPEC countries. After 8 months, the Baath was overthrown by another clique of officers, who ruled until 1968. The nationalist officers in Iraq were outraged by US and Dutch support of Israel in the 1967 war, and joined an oil boycott of the West that began that June. The nationalist Iraqi regime also put pressure on other Gulf oil countries to take control of their resources away from American firms that were essentially allied with Israel via their government in Washington. The later round of oil nationalizations were in some ways Arab revenge for the humiliating defeat in 1967.

In 1968 the Baath returned to power in a second coup, and in 1971 President Ahmad Hasan al-Bakr nationalized the IPC. Below is an initial CIA analysis of the 1972 nationalization of Iraqi petroleum. I am omitting the Agency's incorrect prediction that Iraq would find it difficult to market its nationalized petroleum. The CIA could not have foreseen the 1973 Arab oil boycott or the quadrupling of oil prices in the rest of the 1970s.

Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969-1976, Volume E-4, Documents on Iran and Iraq, 1969-1972

"CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Directorate of Intelligence
June 1972

INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM

SOME IMPLICATIONS OF IRAQ'S OIL NATIONALIZATION

Introduction

1. In a sudden and dramatic move on 1 June 1972, the Iraqi government nationalized all the assets of the Iraq Petroleum Company (IPC), a consortium of US, British, Dutch, and French oil firms operating in northern Iraq. The nationalization culminates 11 years of smoldering disputes between the members of the oil consortium and the Iraqi government. The same group of oil firms also controls the only two other non-government oil-producing companies in Iraq – the Mosul Petroleum Company (MPC) and the Basrah Petroleum Company (BPC). These companies, which have less production than the IPC, have not been affected by the nationalization decree. In concert with the Iraqi move, the Syrian government seized the Syrian portion of the IPC pipeline through which the oil produced in northern Iraq is transported to ports on the eastern Mediterranean. This memorandum describes the events leading up to the nationalization and analyzes Iraq's ability to maintain output and sales of the newly acquired oil. In addition, the possible repercussions on the Iraqi economy and the world oil market resulting from the action are discussed . . .

Discussion

Background

2. The source of the present conflict between Iraq and IPC is rooted in "Law 80" promulgated in 1961 [by Abd al-Karim Qasim (Kassim)]. From 1925 until 1961, IPC held concessions in Iraq covering virtually the entire country. This law withdrew from IPC all concession acreage not then being worked by IPC companies – an area amounting to more than 99% of the total. The canceled concessions included the potentially prolific North Rumaila oilfield that IPC had discovered and partly developed, but from which production had not yet begun. The companies refused to acknowledge the validity of the law, and for more than a decade the dispute simmered. Intermittent government-company discussions failed to resolve the issue. In retaliation, IPC refused to grant Iraq the same financial benefits that other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)* were able to obtain in the mid-1960s, such as expensing royalties. This action has led to an Iraqi claim for back payments of nearly $400 million. Negotiations on the back payments claims and the North Rumaila issue took place again in January and February 1972 but ended in deadlock primarily because of IPC's adamant stand on compensation for the loss of the North Rumaila oilfield. . .

3. Tensions between IPC and the government were accentuated when oil production from the northern oilfields dropped sharply during March, April, and early May 1972. The Iraqis regarded this cutback as a further attempt to apply retaliatory pressure against the government following the breakdown of negotiations in February. By mid-May as the Revolutionary Command Council (RCC) saw the serious downturn in government oil receipts, which are vitally needed for political as well as economic reasons, IPC was threatened with confiscatory legislation if the company did not increase production from the northern oilfields, agree on a long-term production program, and make a "positive offer" on the other outstanding issues. On 31 May, IPC agreed to increase production from the northern oilfields and to set up a long-range production program but continued to demand compensation for the loss of North Rumaila. By then the RCC had already decided on the need for a dramatic political move, and Oil Minister Hamadi rejected the proposal out-of-hand, insisting that Iraq would never pay compensation for the North Rumaila field. The nationalization law was adopted the next day.

4. IPC has six shareholders: British Petroleum (BP), Shell Petroleum, and Compagnie Francaise des Petroles (CFP) [Total], each with 23.75%; the two American oil companies, Mobil and Standard Oil (New Jersey)[now Exxon], are equal partners in the Near East Development Corporation and jointly own another 23.75%; and the C.S. Gulbenkian Estate owns the remaining 5%. The company's production comes mainly from the Kirkuk oilfield in northern Iraq and is exported via pipeline across Syria to the eastern Mediterranean ports of Banias in Syria and Tripoli in Lebanon.

Prospects for Iraq's Producing and Marketing the Oil

5. Although production has apparently now been stopped on orders from Baghdad, output could begin on short notice. Maintaining output from the nationalized facilities and transporting the oil from the Kirkuk field to the Mediterranean ports should pose no insurmountable problems for the Iraqis. The operation of the northern fields is already almost entirely in the hands of Iraqi nationals who are expected to remain under the new ownership. The Syrians similarly should encounter little difficulty operating the IPC pipeline.

6. Production is not the problem, however. The most serious problem facing the Iraqis is finding buyers. The companies comprising IPC control a large share of the world oil market. It is unlikely that they would agree to market the nationalized oil without an Iraqi commitment for prompt and adequate compensation. . . "

Well, the compensation hasn't been prompt. It is now likely to be adequate.

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16 Comments:

At 5:32 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The oil majors are desperate, and the service contracts they got are good for Iraq at this stage. One can only expect top quality work from them to show their worth, and whether or not they get rights to the Iraqi reserves are for future Iraqi leaders to decide, and they will not be the Green Zone gangs of today.

Big Oil have won the current oil minister over but he can't do much for them, nor can he stay in the medium term. He is saying that the Iraqi National Oil Company will only own 80% of known reserves, leaving the bulk of Iraqi reserves (of around 260Bb out of 350B) with their pristine, exceptionally easy to exploit, fields for Big Oil. Even a small fraction of the $tens of trillion worth will make their share prices skyrocket.

But he can't deliver, and at some stage the Americans and British will give up and that may well be soon. If the current parliament wouldn't approve the oil law, then the next one will be ten times less likely to do so.

 
At 6:38 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks Juan.

You know I think most Americans are all right with the American multinationals and thier armed forces (aka the US armed forces) "recovering" "their" oil in Iraq.

And I think most Americans are OK with Obama's belly-crawl before the AIPAC as well.

Americans just do not care.

Get us the oil that is our due as Americans or we'll burn the world.

It's only fair.

 
At 8:35 AM, Blogger Jim Ginn said...

When you hear someone preface:

It's not about the money ...,

it almost certainly is.

I guess the same can be said when you hear:

It's not about oil ...

 
At 11:13 AM, Blogger Samson said...

I was struck by your line that 'the CIA could not have foreseen the 1973 Oil boycott.'

Actually, I'd say that exactly the sort of thing the CIA is supposed to foresee.

Certainly, oil was regarded as a strategic resource long before the 1970's. The history you give of the US muscleing on oil concessions as far back as the end of WWI illustrates that.

The US knew that Israel and the Arab nations had fought a war recently (1967). Surely they knew tensions were high and were monitoring as nations like Egypt tried to regroup and rebuild their militaries.

So, surely someone must have been thinking about what happens if there's another war. What are likely outcomes? What are likely actions that it might cause?

I guess one possible mistake the CIA could make would be think that any war would be like 1967 and the Arabs would be crushed. There is of course no military reason to believe that as Egypt and Syria rebuilt their militaries with Soviet arms, but that's the general propaganda line that's always circulated in the US about the Israeli military.

Even then, it still doesn't take psychic powers to realize that Israel only had the military stores to fight for a couple of weeks and that any longer fight or anything that incurred Israeli losses was going to lead to a request to the US for more equipment and supplies.

And, as I understood it, it was the sight of those American transport planes flying in massive amounts of equipment and supplies that led to the Arab oil boycott.

So, no one in our 'intelligence' agency looked a this and asked the question .... 'if we openly support
Israel in a war, what are likely responses?'

Of course, I'm not saying you are wrong factually in that the CIA didn't know it was coming. Of course, that's just more of a 'add it to the long list' sort of thing. Its just that your line got me thinking about how it really should see something like that coming.

 
At 12:58 PM, Blogger Jason_M said...

Odd comment from Mr. Lee, a contact person for the People's Viral Party, an advocate of direct democracy, to say that Americans don't care. And why raise Israel in this discussion unless Israel/Jews figure in your mind-set?

 
At 2:07 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

And to what extent is the violence in Iraq usually attributed to religion and clan also all about the oil?

 
At 2:20 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The 1973 war was not the only cause for the oil crisis then. The oil companies were playing very dirty indeed and the Arabs were netting as little as $1 a barrel as a result.

The oil cartel were both producers and buyers of crude. So they set the price very low, in the $2~$3 range which they got around 50% of anyway, then marked up the oil price enormously after refining which was their monopoly.

The CIA were therefore right to assume that the Arabs couldn't sell the oil, but the Arabs stopped pumping instead. The West finally cracked under pressure and prices rose and the oil companies were kicked out.

The CIA didn't see that coming also because they assumed that the Arab leaders wouldn't dare, but there is always a threshold for a breaking point.

 
At 3:29 PM, Blogger Chris Baker said...

The Iraqi Parliament deserves enormous credit for blocking the proposed oil law in spite of repeated demands from corrupt US politicians to pass it. Also the Minister of Oil, apparently a respected figure in Iraq, deserves credit for publicly asserting at every opportunity that the oil and gas contracts signed by the KRG are illegal. That clearly suggests that once the Ministry of Defense and Interior are better prepared, the Iraqi parliament will pass a law effectively nationalizing the Kurdish oil and gas fields.

However since the Kurds have apparently corrupted quite a few members of the US Congress, Iraq has to place the US military presence beyond this year under it's tight control. Also Iraq must have sovereignty over it's air space. The biggest puzzle is the slow progress of the Iraqi "Air Force", which still hasn't progressed beyond flying prop planes and unarmored helicopters.

 
At 4:04 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great post Mr. Cole; But when an elected official, in the McClellan hearing, Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa), states he 'prays' that this country will never be a democracy that pretty much says it all.

 
At 5:57 PM, Blogger karlof1 said...

Gotta love those FRUS volumes, probably the most overlooked resource in every college library. Much of them read like the Pentagon Papers.

I think Iraq is going to model its NOC after Saudi's ARAMCO. This would mean no more than support contracts, and more likely with companies like Schlumberger than "Little Oil."

It's funny that oil fell yesterday upon China's announcment that it would lower its subsidies. More detailed inspection shows that this will actually allow China's consumption to expand as the move provides a direct boost to Chinese refiners, which were really suffering under the higher subsidy regime. The key stat to follow is Chinese vehicle sales, which show an annualized increase of 14.1%. And the price rise means Chinese drivers will now pay about $3/gal., which I doubt will dampen the current growth in sales or the demand for gas and diesel. The 14% growth in vehicle sales is a rough proxy for China's oil imports to rise 14%. I'm confidant the Chinese will find that additional 14%; the only questions are at what price and who will get outbid.

 
At 9:39 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's pretty fashionable to say that Iraq was about oil; I suppose that Greenspan feels that way as well, but there may be some desire to be the focus of attention again at stake.

To say that Iraq is not about oil is incorrect. Iraq would be ignored completely, like Rwanda, were it not for oil. That is obvious.

But the notion that the war was executed in order to somehow grab the oil is pretty difficult to sustain. The oil in Iraq remains the property of the Iraqis. The terms might be more generous than is typical today, but they are much less generous than, say, after Eni changed the rules in the 60s.

The way the war was prosecuted does not indicate an especial interest in securing oil ... indeed, it seems to have been almost completely irrelevant to its prosecution up until now. Security on the ground is required for increasing the production of oil, and Iraq, last I looked, is basically producing about as much as under Saddam.

A much better case could be made for the war being an effort to take oil off the market, than for grabbing the gas. The notion that the guys at the top didn't understand the security requirements for producing more oil from Iraq is, basically, ridiculous.

 
At 12:35 AM, Blogger karlof1 said...

anonymous at 3:39--The Oil Ministry was the only governmental building initially protected from the looting after Bhaghdad's fall. You must also examine the behavior and initial policies of the Neocons's CPA. Further examine the otherwise wholesale lack of planning and the words spoken by Rumsfeld, Bush, Cheney, and Powell, etc., and you will see they drank their own koolaid, convincing themselves of the Rightness and Goodness of their action and the expectation of being greeted as liberators--they never expected an insugency of the type that arose, which defeated their greater plans. Without the insurgency, current oil production would easily be double pre-war, about 5Mbpd, and oil price would be under $100--unless they would have followed up on their master plan and invaded Syria and Iran. If they had, we would be involved in a major war, the war of Orwell's 1984.

 
At 4:54 AM, Blogger Christiane said...

To Anonymous 3:39 and in complement to what Karlof said :

The issue may not have been only about oil.. it was rather about control of a rich natural ressource and make sure that others don't get that oil.. Iraq had contracts with FRance and Russia and potentially with China... now the main companies on board are two US companies, one British one and .. well a fourth French one.. after Sarkozy replaced Chirac and showed more comprehension toward the US imperial plan, after it reintegrated the NATO command (from which De Gaulle had slammed the door long ago). So, the US an its vassals aren't getting more oil than before, but neither are the others.. this for the moment save it for later. AKA, nothing is already won for the US in matters of oil, but nothing is already lost.. and you can bet that Obama or not in the WH won't change the US goals with respect to Iraq.
As for the Oil companies : it was a win/win situation : either they would get a lion share of the Iraqi oil ressources and whealth, or the prices would skyrocket as they are doing now..

 
At 9:35 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jason_m :

Ah, it's good to see that someone is listening. I don't really believe that Americans don't care at all about the hardship and injustice our government visits seemingly non-stop on the rest of the world. But we are certainly not very effective in doing anything about it.

Nor are we very effective in countering the influence of the AIPAC and the rest of Israel Lobby. And we do nothing at all in the face of betrayal by the Great Black and White Hope, who now says the opposite of everything he once said so stirringly to all.

Direct democracy is certainly the goal. But it takes effort. At least people could unequivocally condemn unequivocally wrong acts.

There are not many overt reasons for hope these days.

Cheer me up Jason. Tell me you oppose the war, that you will not vote for a presidential candidate who does not pledge to end it within six months of taking office.

That you will not support a candidate who would put the interests of a neocolonial, apartheid enterprise before the interests of America and Americans. Not to mention before the interests of their victims.

Those are the immediate problems before us. These are the ones we're going to answer for when asked by our children hw such things could happen.

We small 'd' democrats must rise to the occasion. We are the only ones here.

Forgive me my days' weakness.

 
At 3:06 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

To begin with: Kudos to Juan for allowing my post to be published anonymously. There are many in the press--on both sides of the aisle--who refuse to publish opposing views, as Juan well knows. I'm glad that someone, at least, believes in the free exchange of ideas--or the marketplace of em, as Holmes put it.

Re: Oil Ministry. In oil, information is a precious commodity. This is because almost all of the numbers are either falsified, guesstimated, or just plain no one's sure. For example, oil exports from Iraq are now at about 1.43 mb/d ... and they haven't really changed from about that for the last 5 years. One plausible reason for this number is that it just happens to be the requirement for their IMF loan. I doubt it's accurate.

But defending the building of the Oil Ministry would do absolutely nothing to secure more oil supplies. The information contained therein, on the other hand, might well be used for prosecution of violations, for example, of the embargo imposed by the UN. There were plenty of "bad guys" who would have profited from the looting of such a building in non-intuitive ways and the information itself would be critical for the future economy of Iraq--no matter who runs it.

Getting oil out of the ground, on the other hand, requires security. This is why Unocal was comfortable working with the Taliban in Afghanistan--re: a potential pipeline in the 90s. The Taliban was not an especially palatable regime, to be sure, but they WERE able to supply security.

The key thing here is pipelines and drills. Pipelines are exponentially more expensive, and really difficult to provide security for. By expensive were talking in multiples of billions of dollars. Drilling is much less expensive (in places like the Middle East)--which is why oil is so profitable--but still very expensive ... in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

To put additional crudes on the table, you would need pretty good security. Not water tight, so to speak, but much much better than was even attempted for in Iraq.

The notion that Rummy et. al. drank their own koolaid strikes me as implausible. His "what could go wrong" memo seems to me proof positive that he knew the difficulties and that he thought it unlikely that the occupation would be brought off clean and painless. Surely after the looting in Baghdad everyone knew what they had to look forward to.

The notion that the entire war was prosecuted to eliminate the possibility of the foreign majors from "getting" that oil also strikes me as more than a bit of a stretch. Keeping the oil off the table for the sole purpose of boosting oil prices to make alternative energy economical is more plausible to me, but also somewhat lacking in persuasiveness.

I understand why someone might think it was all about oil, as someone wrote in response to an article in the NYT the other day:

If Kerry had become President and launched a war against one of the major tomato producers in the world, one might be reasonably persuaded that the war was about ketchup.

Fair enough, but the specifics of how this war was carried out simply don't gel with the specifics of getting oil to the market or, even, making the Iraqis feel particularly grateful to the US and, thus, by extension, feel a certain obligation to our majors.

Rummy et. al., their ideologies aside, were perfectly aware of the depth of anti-colonial feeling in the Middle East. I simply don't buy that they didn't apprehend what anyone with a middling sense of world history would have deduced.

 
At 12:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It would be interesting to see a digest of European comment on this muscle move by the USA. Even as the continent drifts politically to the right under Sarko, Merkel, Berlusconi, and new conservatives in the Nordic states, conservative oil interests must be almost as incensed with the Americans as the usual liberal critics.

 

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