Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Councilman Kills 2 GIs;
Mortar Fire Kills 10 on Awakening C.

A city council member in Mada'in (Salman Pak) abruptly opened fire on Americans who had been in a meeting with him. He killed 2 US troops and wounded 4 other Americans. He had been in India recently because Sunni-Shiite tensions made it too difficult for him in Mada'in. He had only been back one week as councilman. Although there is speculation that he was unstable, my own suspicion is that the continued US military occupation was just too hard for him to take. India has an anti-colonial atmosphere, after all. Here is some of what McClatchy reporters overhead the people of Mada'in say in the aftermath:

' Anti-U.S. sentiment remains widespread, with many locals viewing the American presence as an intrusion. As news of Ajil's killings spread, some residents hailed him as a hero. Several uttered his name and added, "God rest his soul," and a taxi driver at the scene pointed to the bloodstains and said, "the pigs deserved this." '


Guerrillas in Udaim, about an hour north of Baquba, guerrillas bombarded an Awakening Council unit with mortar fire, killing 10 and wounding 24 of them.

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, in Amara, pledged to send his army in to restore order in Diyala Province next. Since Diyala is 60% Sunni Arab, and al-Maliki's troops are disproportionately drawn from Shiite militias, it is not so clear that they will have an easy time of it.

Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that yet another party has withdrawn from the United Iraqi Alliance. The Islamic Mission (Da'wa) Party - Iraqi Organization of Abdul Karim Anizi has announced the suspension of its participation in the UIA.

I heard US Secretary of State Condi Rice on Sunday on Fareed Zakaria's show call the al-Maliki government a 'national unity' government. Not so much. Not only has he not managed to bring the Sunnis back in, he is losing the Shiites.

An interesting idea: It is getting to the point where al-Maliki's enemies in parliament could organize a vote of no confidence and make the government fall. If it was no longer the biggest party, some other coalition could hope to nominate the prime minister.

McClatchy reports political violence on Monday:
' Baghdad

A roadside bomb targeted a National Police patrol in Waziriyah, near the cotton wool plant intersection at 11.30 a.m. Monday, injuring three policemen.

A roadside bomb targeted a US military convoy in Qahira, near the water reservoir at noon. No casualties were reported.

A roadside bomb targeted a US military convoy in Salahuddin Square, Kathimiyah neighbourhood at around noon. No casualties were reported.

A roadside bomb targeted a US military convoy in Adil neighbourhood at around 1 p.m. No casualties were reported.

Two unidentified bodies were found in Baghdad today; 1 in Hurriyah and one in al-Amin.

Diyala

Mortar rounds fell on a Sahwa headquarters in al-Atheim district, 50 km to the north of Baquba at 8.30 p.m. Sunday, killing 10 members, injuring 24 others.

Nineveh

Gunmen opened fire on a checkpoint manned by Iraqi Police in New Mosul, south Mosul killing one policeman and one civilian female, severely injuring two civilians.'


The USG Open Source Center translates part of a statement form Ayatollah Mohammad Hussein Fadlallah of Lebanon condemning the Status of Forces Agreement being negotiated between the US and Iraq. Fadlallah at least used to be the spiritual guide of the Islamic Mission Party (Da'wa) that Nuri al-Maliki belongs to:

"Source: Lebanese National News Agency website, Beirut, in Arabic 0737 gmt 22 Jun 08

we call on the Arab and Islamic states not to comply with the security and military demands that the US Administration aims to accomplish through its keenness to influence Arab armies, impose its tutelage, and interfere in their [military] doctrine and special security features, because we know that the United States that has failed through its direct armies is attempting to accomplish its goals by using the Arab and Islamic forces. This not only constitutes betrayal, but also leads to the destruction of all security, and toppling the positions that everyone depends on to protect what can be protected, after the Americans used their chaos to tamper with the reality of our countries, peoples, sects, and denominations from within.

We reject the US tutelage, just as we reject other tutelages. We do not find any legitimacy to any authority that attempts to bestow legitimacy to this or that tutelage."

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3 Comments:

At 5:33 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Strategic Militiary Agreements declared in December is dead and buried. Sistani, Iran, and the non-Kurd Iraqis told Maliki not to sign, and he has to oblige.

The Americans now want to phrase a non-strategic, short-term, deal to govern the presence of American forces in such a way as to get what they want anyway. The Iraqi side, however, wants the deal to include a framework for the exit of the troops.

So, the Japan/Korea/Germany model for troop presence is also dead. The troops may only stay to help the Iraqi government control the country, then they go.

The anti-US groups, particularly the Sunni nationalists and the Sadrists, are actively helping the government to restore the rule of law, even if imperfect, to speed up the exit of the US. The Diyala province campaign will most likely mirror what happened in Mosul and similarly succeed.

 
At 11:43 AM, Blogger Chris Baker said...

The International Herald Tribune has an article today titled "Senate Democrats try to block no-bid contracts for Iraq oil" (link below). My understanding is ownership of all Iraq's oil and gas is claimed by the Oil Ministry on behalf of the people of Iraq, and that includes those oil and gas reserves in the Kurdish region. At present the KRG, which is very friendly with Congress, are unconstitutionally exploiting oil and gas reserves which clearly belong to all the people of Iraq, and at every opportunity the Oil Ministry says those contracts are illegal.

However Senators John Kerry, Claire McCaskill, and Chuck Schumer are apparently demanding the State Dept. interfere in Iraq's sovereign affairs by trying to block long-negotiated oil service contracts which the Prime Minister al-Maliki has previously said Iraq's Oil Ministry desperately needs to expand it's oil production. According to the International Herald Tribune, the Senators letter reportedly says "no deals should be signed, particularly without bidding, until Iraq enacts a long-delayed law that would regulate its oil industry."

Schumer also reportedly said: "When this war started, one of the promises was: There'll be plenty of oil for everybody. Now it looks like you could end up with Iraq being one of these petro-feudal states with different factions warring for the oil." Iraq is only "petro-feudal" because the Iraqi parliament has yet to nationalize those Kurdish oil and gas reserves being unconstitutionally exploited by the KRG. That also means the parliament must absolutely avoid passing the so-called "oil law". Link: "Senate Democrats try to block no-bid contracts for Iraq oil": http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/06/24/mideast/iraqoil.php

 
At 4:58 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Juan,

You apparently neglected to read David Brooks' column today, or else you would know that Bush made the right decision, that the surge worked, and its only a matter of time before all of us acknowledge the fact and shower him with our gratitude.

 

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