Muqtada threatens Open Warfare;
Islamic State in Iraq launches One-Month Campaign;
Help! They told me on Television Iraq Was Calm Now
Meanwhile, a lot of open warfare is being threatened in Iraq.
Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr is said to have threatened open warfare with the al-Maliki government if it does not cleanse "militias" [i.e. the Badr Corps] from its security forces and does not cease attacking Sadrist areas.
The Islamic State in Iraq declared a month-long campaign to kill US troops. April is already a relatively high-casualty month for the US military in Iraq.
Another mass grave found in Iraq, this time near Shiite Diwaniya. But AFP suggests that it was a mafia hit-- they were killed along a smuggling route to Saudi Arabia. Did one smuggling gang horn in on another's territory? Billions of dollars a year of gasoline, kerosene, antiquities, and drugs are being smuggled in Iraq every year, and the money often supports guerrillas. In Colombia they have narco-terrorism. In Iraq, it is hydrocarbon terrorism.
Little Jordan, with 500,000 Iraqi refugees and a population of only 5.2 million, is petrified that Iraq's instability will spill over on it.
Reuters reports political violence in Iraq so far this weekend:
' date item.
* BAGHDAD - Three rockets hit the Sadr hospital in Sadr City late on Saturday, according to Ali Bustan, head of the health directorate in the eastern section of Baghdad. It was unclear if there were any casualties or who fired the rockets. The U.S. military said it was not to blame. Bustan also said the bodies of three women had been brought in along with 40 wounded people following fresh clashes.
* DIWANIYA - 16 decapitated and decomposed bodies were found in the desert near Diwaniya, 180 km (112 miles) south of Baghdad, a senior military official in Diwaniya said. The bodies and heads were in separate plastic bags.
* MOSUL - One civilian was killed and 5 others were wounded when an IED exploded in eastern Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.
* MOSUL - Two bodies were found, one in southeastern Mosul and the other in a town south of the city, a senior military official in Mosul said.
NASSIRIYA - One policeman was killed and three wounded in clashes with gunmen near Nassiriya, 375 km (235 miles) southwest of Baghdad, hospital and police officials said.
MOSUL AND BAJI - U.S. forces detained 22 suspects in the northern cities of Mosul and Baji in security operations targeting al Qaeda militants, the U.S. military said.
BAGHDAD - Gunmen shot and seriously wounded an interior ministry official in eastern Baghdad, police said.
MOSUL - Iraqi army forces arrested 44 al Qaeda militants and confiscated weapons in different areas of eastern Mosul, a spokesman for Mosul operations command said.
BASRA - Government forces said they captured the district of Hayaniya in Basra, long a stronghold of cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's Mehdi Army, achieving an objective that had eluded them during a crackdown last month. Basra is 550 km (340 miles) southeast of Baghdad.
BAGHDAD - Twelve people were killed and 71 others wounded on Friday and Saturday in Sadr City in eastern Baghdad, police said. Hospitals said the total wounded was more than 130.
MOSUL - A roadside bomb killed two people and wounded 12 others in eastern Mosul, police said.
KIRKUK - A parked car bomb killed one person and wounded three others in southern Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.
NEAR KIRKUK - A roadside bomb struck a police patrol, killing one policeman and wounding another in the southwest of Kirkuk, police said.
BAGHDAD - A U.S. helicopter gunship fired a missile, killing two gunmen in eastern Baghdad on Saturday, the U.S. military said.
BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb killed one U.S. soldier when it struck his vehicle on Friday just north of Baghdad, the U.S. military said in statement.
SALAHUDDIN PROVINCE - A car bomb blast killed one U.S. soldier when he was conducting a patrol on Friday in Salahuddin province, north of Baghdad, the U.S. military said.
BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb wounded two people on Friday in the Karrada district of central Baghdad, police said.
BAGHDAD - One Iraqi soldier was killed and four others wounded when a roadside bomb struck their patrol in Yarmouk district, in western Baghdad, police said.
BAGHDAD - Two bodies were found in different districts of Baghdad on Friday, police said.
BAGHDAD - A mortar bomb killed one person on Friday in al-Nidhal street, central Baghdad, police said.
MUSSAYAB - One body was found with gunshot wounds in Mussayab, 60 km (40 miles) south of Baghdad, police said.
(compiled by Aws Qusay; editing by Noah Barkin)'
Labels: Iraq
posted by Juan Cole @ 4/20/2008 10:47:00 AM
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4 Comments:
"Help! They told me on Television Iraq Was Calm Now"
'Calm' is a relative term. It's as if the forces that be without have been treading water, remarking that all was 'calm.' Yet, once the tides change or the wind picks up or some other event occurs that upsets the more preferred state of 'calm,' there will be little to explain or rationalise the straits in which they will be found, foundering. Treading water always assumes that one might have the strength to carry on without having to make any progress through swimming or to maintain one's position until some sort of relief or rescue comes along.
The various factions in Iraq are themselves biding their time, awaiting the moment when the invaders and occupiers begin to lose their will or the means to continue their enterprises, the indigenous not worrying about having to rely on 'calm' to establish themselves. 'Calm' is a period in which planning and intelligence gathering can take place, employing various means to recover from previous setbacks, awaiting the appropriate times and places to act, either politically or militarily. Like sharks circling their intended prey, the water-treaders, 'calm' takes on another context, one that favours those who are in their element, not favouring any who are somewhat unsuited to the climate or the conditions.
All that matters is just how hungry the predators are, just how intent they are to make their moves.
Myself and others still await some comment by you on Gareth Porter's piece that alleges Maliki's attack on Basra was done in haste to mitigate a much heavier US assault.
As you mentioned the comedian Bill Mahr complained about the General vs retired General shows years before. What can you say about the state of journalism when comedians deliver the news years before New Times (aka as "the paper of records")?
Hopefully I am wrong, but when you step back and see the wider picture, you realize that it is not just Bush administration; issues are much deeper and unlikely to change with new president.
In a complex situation, the more extreme the behavior, the more numerous the changes, the more rapid the adaptation of all actors in the system, and, thus, the more difficult it will be to predict the outcome.
The political equivalent of such complexity would include numerous factions which frequently modify their behavior, goals, and alliances; the possession of great energy in the form of willpower, military power, manpower, and funding by many of the contending factions; no single center of power or legitimacy; many interactions both within groups and between groups; debate over and evolution of norms; numerous conflicting ideologies. (See http://shadowedforest.blogspot.com/2008/04/hubris-complexity-of-pushing-around.html for details.)
Speaking from a theoretical perspective as a political scientist, the above thoughts would seem more than a little relevant to Iraq, now that the head of the country is making war on his own capital city. Maliki’s sudden about-face in March from In January Maliki was calling for cooperation with Moqtada al-Sadr; in March, after Cheney visited, Maliki suddenly did an about-face and proceeded to attack him.
Professor Cole, your assessment as a specialist of the long-term implications of this new policy would be much appreciated.
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