Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Monday, April 21, 2008

2 US Troops Killed, Others Wounded;
Sadr City Fighting;
Bombing, Kidnappings in Baquba

The LAT says that 2 US troops were killed in Salahuddin Province north of Baghdad (a largely Sunni Arab area). Also, a roadside bomb struck a US troop transport in Basra, producing unspecified casualties.

In addition, LAT reports that fighting continued on Monday in Sadr City between its Mahdi Army militiamen and Iraqi government forces backed by US troops. Nine are said dead in the clashes. The government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is attempting to reduce the power of the Sadrist political movement, backed by the Mahdi Army, in favor of his new ally, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), headed by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim. Al-Hakim's movement is more middle and upper class and more tied to Iran, while the Sadrists are working class or poor slum dwellers and Iraqi nationalists. In Baquba, a Sunni female suicide bomber targeted US backed Sunni militiamen of the local Awakening council, killing 3.

Kudos to James Glanz and Alissa Rubin of the NYT for getting the story! They point out that the US and Iran are on the same side in southern Iraq, both fearful of the nativist Sadr movement. This correct narrative is completely the opposite of what Americans have been spoon fed on television and by Bush / Pentagon spokesmen. I had pointed out this Bush- Iran convergence last week and also pointed out that US intelligence analysis admits it. The article is the first one I have seen to say that Iran supports al-Hakim's ISCI in its bid to create a Shiite superprovince in Iraq's south. I've never been able to discover what the Iranians feel about this and had wondered if they weren't at least a little bit worried about a soft partition of Iraq because of its implications for Iranian Kurdistan, which might become restive and seek to join Iraqi Kurdistan. But it is plausible that Tehran might risk this scenario in order to gain a permanent regional ally in the form of the Shiite Regional Government in southern Iraq.

The Badr Corps paramilitary says that it is now the Badr Organization and is no longer a militia. The Badr is modeled on the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, which is a sort of National Guard in Iran, so I suppose Badr is saying that its troops now play a similar role in Iraq, functioning as a slightly less formal state security force. But the Badr reporting line goes to MP Hadi al-Amiri and thence to cleric Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, not to the prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki. Likewise, the Peshmerga paramilitary of the Kurds has been redefined as a National Guard and accepted as such in the Iraqi Constitution. But the question remains of what these militias would do if their own leadership did come into conflict with the prime minister. They are after all militias. As for Badr's insistence that they haven't run death squads, secret courts, or torture cells, actually they have. They just tend to do these things under the cover of the Ministry of the Interior. As the NYT report said, the US doesn't see Badr as a militia "because they aren't trying to kill us."

What Condi's diplomacy with Iraq's neighbors looks like from Moscow:



Al-Hayat reports that US Secretary of State Condi Rice was been unable to get a prior, unambiguous commitment at a preparatory meeting in Manama from the Arab states to forgive Iraqi loans and other obligations incurred under Saddam Hussein, or to open embassies in Baghdad.

Professors and students in Baquba, northeast of Baghdad, are requesting protection after a rash of kidnappings targeting them, al-Hayat writes in Arabic. They also want past such kidnappers now in state custody to sentence them quickly, fearful that local tribal sheikhs will intervene to get the miscreants released, resulting in reprisals against the victims.

McClatchy reports political violence in Iraq on Monday:


' Baghdad

- Around 8 am, three IEDs planted in three cars targeted employees of the Cabinet office. The first one was in Dora and the employee was driving his own car the BMW when it exploded and he was injured in that incident .The second one targeted another employee who was injured as he was driving his Hyundai car with another passenger who was sitting by him. The third one targeted a female employee’s car at Alawi neighborhood. She was injured in that incident.

- Around 10 am, two roadside bombs targeted two cars near the red crescent in Mansour neighborhood .No casualties reported.

- Around 11 am, random clashes took place at Rubayee street of Zayuna (east Baghdad). Six people were killed including a woman in that incident.

- Around 3:20 pm, mortars hit the green zone (IZ) in central Baghdad.No casualties reported.

- Around 4 pm, a roadside bomb targeted a KIA mini bus near the oil marketing headquarter at Zayuna neighborhood (east Baghdad). One person was killed and five others were injured in that incident.

- Around 4 pm, a mortar shell hit Mashtal neighborhood (east Baghdad). Two people were injured in that incident.

- Around 4 pm, clashes took place at Mashtal neighborhood (east Baghdad) between the Iraqi army and the Mahdi army . Five people were injured in that clashes.

- Around 6 and 6:30 pm, two Katyusha missiles hit the Supreme council headquarters .No casualties reported.

- Around 6:10 pm, a Katyusha missile hit the Salhiyah compound (central Baghdad).No casualties recorded ,but some cars were damaged in that incident.

- Police found 4 dead bodies in Baghdad today: (3) were found in east Baghdad (Risafa bank); 1 was in Zayuna , 1 was in Husseiniyah and 1 was in Mashtal. While(1) was found in Dora.

Diyala

- Around 1.15 pm, a female suicide bomber detonated herself near one of the popular committees headquarter at Mafraq in Baquba .Three members were killed and 4 others were injured.

Basra

- In the afternoon, a roadside bomb targeted an American patrol at Al-Ghuzaza bridge (north Basra), witnesses in Basra said . While the MNF in Iraq gave us this reply “We can confirm there was an IED attack on US troops today in Basra with casualties. No further information is releasable at this time.” '

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9 Comments:

At 7:37 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Once uppon a time Saddam was favoured by the United States . He was a bloody and ruthless dictator that opressed the Shia people . Most of anti-Saddam shia clerics and activists fled to Iran . Among them all of the allies of Maliki today , specially the SCIRI party and Badr Brigades . They all ran to Iran to scape persecution by Saddam . But there was a family who did not run . A family that stayed to fight the dictator . I am talking about Sadr´s family. His father , a grand ayatollah , was assasinated by Saddam secret services for the crime of speaking against the dictator in his mosque every friday . His two brothers were also assasinated , and yet Sadr remained in Irak , showing how brave he is . Many years later we can see Sadr in the tomb of Iman Ali at Najaf , with a few hundred men armed whith light weapons , resisting for weeks the most powerfull army in the world , that of the USA . He was wounded in the intense american bombing . You could see brave Sadr , wounded in the arm , sorrounded by american tanks giving his battle orders . Only a very very stupid person can call Sadr a coward . What Rice would like is for Sadr to foolishly return to irak , so that americans can cowardly attack him from the air , killing everyone near him in the process also. Sadr is brave but he is also not stupid . He knows his place is in Iran right now , not under the protection of the iranian government , which is a mere observer in this game , but under the protection of the Marjiya , the supreme shia religious authority . He is in the holy city of Qom and will remain there as long as grand ayatolah Sistani thinks it is the best place for him to be . And Condoleeza Rice is so stupid calling him a coward . Her words show her desire for escalation , for blood , for violence . When someone calls you a coward , it is sure he is looking for a fight . In contrast brave Sadr is sacrifying a lot for peace ,even when members of his family are assasinated and his followers imprisioned and shia citys bombed from the air,Sadr is giving peace a chance . Putting the other cheak . But , how many cheaks do Sadr and the poor shia masses have left ? I am afraid this is the last one , and no matter what he does or say , the invading american army is out to exterminate him and his followers , and anybody else that stands for a free Irak . So there is only one option , as it is usually the case for any invaded country . The Mahdi army will have to fight or die .

 
At 8:31 AM, Blogger Christiane said...

The government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is attempting to reduce the power of the Sadrist political movement, backed by the Mahdi Army, in favor of his new ally, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), headed by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim. Al-Hakim's movement is more middle and upper class and more tied to Iran, while the Sadrists are working class or poor slum dwellers and Iraqi nationalists.

Day after day, I'm reading you in this blog telling about the deeds (or the non/deeds) of Al'Maliki's government and of internal Iraqi politics, as if Iraq was a free country. In the end, these kind of sentences (like the one above) are misleading. They give the illusion that the Iraqis and their government are free to act as they wishes. But let's be clear, they don't operate in a vacuum : your country and your military, following a decision taken by your twice elected president, has illegally invaded Iraq and is now occupying it. As a result, one can be quite sure that Al' Maliki can't blink or cough without the US acknowledgement and agreement. Since Al'Maliki was chosen thanks to the support of the Sadrists, why would he go after them, if he wasn't pressured to do so by the US ? The worst scenario for the US and the one they fear the most is if the Sadrists are able to unite with the Sunnis resistance. It's quite clear that the US autorities fears a Sadrists landslide in the next elections and are manoevring in order to prevent it. And these manoevres, we can be sure, include intimidations and war crimes : you can't bomb a slum home of 3.5Millions inhabitants without at the same time massacring civilians, especially when resistant fighters merge in the population, as is the case in all guerrilla war.

 
At 9:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If the USA really had influence over the Gulf states, wouldn't lowering the price of oil be more useful than symbloic support for the pathetic US puppet in Iraq?

The Gulf states actually feel threatened by Iraq under the current leaders who are clerly and openly hostile towards them, and live in Iran's pocket. The debts are a defensive weapon against Iraq. As for the embassies, how can they possibly help solve internal Iraqi conflicts? And what would happen if Hakim's death squads, AKA Iraq's national police, killed them?

 
At 9:28 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Kudos to James Glanz and Alissa Rubin of the NYT for getting the story! They point out that the US and Iran are on the same side in southern Iraq, both fearful of the nativist Sadr movement.

U.S. and Iran find common ground in Iraq's Shiite conflict

Iran stridently opposes the operation against the Mahdi army in Sadr City.


Isn't it possible that Iran is not looking to give the Americans more fuel for their anti-Iran propaganda machine by being essentially even-handed with the Shiia factions in the South, where the Americans are not really in play and the Iranians can keep the Shiia factions from outright fratricide; but supportive of Sadr, the non-collaborator, in Baghdad where the Badr organization's gains, such as they are, are America's as well, and the overall might of the Shiia is reduced by the Badr-American slaughter of Sadrists?

Good move with the Kudos to the NYTimes! It's like the old days when Dick Cheney cited the articles he planted there ;)

 
At 10:09 AM, Blogger Fabius Maximus said...

Prof Cole,
Any comment on this, from The Instapundit:
"'CHICAGO SOUNDS LIKE MOSUL:' That's an email from . . . Michael Yon"
http://instapundit.com/archives2/018200.php
.
Michael Yon is one of the best-known war-bloggers, and has a new best-selling book about the Iraq War.
.
Do you know of any current data comparing murder rates in Iraq and US cities?

 
At 11:12 AM, Blogger MonsieurGonzo said...

ref : “the US and Iran are on the same side in southern Iraq... This correct narrative is completely the opposite of what Americans have been spoon fed on television and by Bush/Pentagon spokesmen...

The American tragedy in Iraq is that your friends in Iraq are allied with your enemies in the region, and your enemies in Iraq are allied with your friends in the region -Ahmed Chalabi

George Orwell, 1984 : “Midway through the book, the alliance breaks apart and Oceania, newly allied with Eurasia, begins a campaign against Eastasian forces. This happens during "Hate Week" (a week of extreme focus on the evilness of Oceania's enemies, the purpose of which is to stir up patriotic fervour in support of the Party), Oceania and Eastasia are enemies once again. The public is quite abnormally blind to the change, and when a public orator, mid-sentence, changes the name of the enemy from Eurasia to Eastasia (still speaking as if nothing had changed), the people are shocked and soon enraged as they notice all the flags and banners are wrong (they blame Goldstein and the Brotherhood) and tear them down. This is the origin of the idiom : "we've always been at war with Eastasia."

 
At 11:56 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Re: The post by Fabius Maximus.

The FBI publishes detailed statistics on violent crime in the US. There are tables that give rates and counts for large cities.

http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2006/offenses/violent_crime/index.html

The average murder rate in the US is about 6 per 100,000. Detroit has the highest rate (near 50). Chicago is lower (near 15).

I'm do not think this kind of comparison means anything at all. For example, kidnapping is extremely rare in the US and kidnapping for ransom is even rarer--it basically does not happen. Also for example, something like 50 law enforcement officers are killed per year in the US. It seems like this many are killed every week or so in Iraq and there is more than an order of magnitude (x10) difference in the size of the population.

I do not think that it is really possible to do an accurate comparison. How accurate do you really think Iraqi crime statistics are at this time? US murder statistics are probably pretty accurate but they have difficulty collecting consistent statistics for many other crimes.

If you were going to make a comparison that really has any intellectual integrity, then you should compare the rates of deaths by violence of all kinds. Even attempting to do this is difficult, given the quality of data available about Iraq. There is something like an order of magnitude (x10) difference between credible conservative estimates and credible estimates using reliable sampling techniques. While those higher estimates are often dismissed by defenders of the war, they tend to be accepted by those who understand the methods and techniques that were used.

Iraqis that can, seem to be fleeing the country because of concerns about their safety and the safety of their families.

There is something very suspect about making this kind of argument. Iraq is an occupied country with dozens of militias and a not-so-cold civil war in progress. That description does not apply to the US. Doesn't this sound like an apples to oranges situation? To me, those straining to compare crime statistics between the US and Iraq are, in effect, denying the reality on the ground. Ask the Iraqis how things are going. Ask Iraqis in these places how safe they feel and whether they can come and go with relative freedom. How many blast walls and checkpoints do you have in your neighborhood? When was the last time that helicopter gun ships fired into your neighborhood? When was the last time some one detonated a bomb in your neighborhood. In fact, ask these questions about any neighborhood in the US. These events do not occur in Detroit or Chicago. The last time they occurred frequently in the US was our civil war.

 
At 2:43 PM, Blogger Essayist-Laywer said...

It is not so difficult to explain how we and Iran ended up on the same side in Iraq's intra-Shiite war if one remembers a simple general rule. In any civil war, the side that looks for foreign allies is the weaker side. The stronger side can win without foreign allies.

 
At 9:29 AM, Blogger Fabius Maximus said...

Is Mosul like Chicago?

Using Prof Coles' daily summary of violence in Iraq, I listed 16 days of "activity" in Mosul. No surprise -- it does *not* resemble Chicago.

"Mosul is just like Chicago!"
http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/2008/04/24/mosul/

 

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