Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Thursday, March 27, 2008

Dozens Dead in Basra Clashes;
Mahdi Army Occupies Kut

There was heavy fighting Wednesday and Thursday morning in the Jumhuriya district of the southern oil port of Basra. That is a stronghold of the Mahdi Army militia of Muqtada al-Sadr, now under assault by the Iraqi military, with rocket propelled grenades, mortars and small arms fire raining down on the civilian neighborhood.

Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that the Mahdi Army still controls its neighborhoods in Basra. It says that there are reports that rival militiamen, presumably the Badr Corps of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, have converged on the Sadrist neighborhoods and have joined the fight against the Mahdi Army side by side with government troops.

Sayyid Muqtada al-Sadr, the leader of the Sadrists, demanded that Prime Minister al-Maliki leave Basra so that local notables and clergy could negotiate a settlement of the crisis. That was his reply to al-Maliki's ultimatum that the Mahdi Army disarm within three days.

A Sadrist leader told al-Zaman, "The objective of the operations in Basra is to impose a provincial confederacy on the south, which the Sadr Movement opposes."

Al-Zaman says that an attempt to negotiate a political settlement by Basra governor Muhammad Misbah al-Wa'ili of the Islamic Virtue Party (Fadhila) failed in the face of al-Maliki's insistence on a military victory.

Al-Zaman says reports are circulating that the Iraqi army has committed atrocities throughout the south, conducting mass executions in many places, including Basra and Kut.

It also says that there is a humanitarian crisis developing in the neighborhoods that the Iraqi army is besieging in Basra, with women, children and old folks trapped and food and potable water running low.

The Mahdi Army still controls Sadr City in East Baghdad and the US is unable to dislodge it for the moment. Al-Zaman says that the capital could erupt into fighting at any moment.

AFP reports one underlying reason for the assault:


' US military spokesman Major General Kevin Bergner told a news conference on Wednesday that 2,000 extra Iraqi security forces had been sent to Basra for the operation. He said it was aimed at improving security in the city ahead of provincial elections in October. '


Remember how attacking Fallujah in Nov. of 2004 was to provide security before the elections, but all it did was convince the Sunni Arabs to boycott, thus throwing the country into civil war?

The Mahdi Army is fighting vigorously against the assault on its strongholds in Basra. It set a roadside bomb to hit the convoy of the city's police chief, killing three policemen. There are rumors that it blew up a bridge to stop government reinforcements from getting into the city easily. And then there is this:

Gunmen blew up an oil pipeline in Basra province. Such sabotage of the pipelines down there is rare, in contrast to the situation in the north around Kirkuk. But if the Sadrists feel unfairly attacked by the government, they clearly are willing to play spoiler, just as some Sunni Arabs have in the north.

As it is, if the fighting goes on a few more days, the next shift of oil workers won't be able to reach the fields, which will shut down some production. Basra fields produce between 1.8 million b/d and 2 mn b/d, and export 1.5 mn b/d. The Iraqi government is heavily dependent on that income.

Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that the Mahdi Army has taken over the southern city of Kut, and has surrounded the governor's mansion, trapping the remaining government police in it.


Aljazeera English on the internal divisions among the Shiite factions (from Monday):



McClatchy reports civil war violence in Iraq for Wednesday:

' Baghdad

At least 20 people were killed and 115 wounded in clashes that broke out on Tuesday evening and lasted until Wednesday morning between Mahdi army militia and the Iraqis security forces supported by the American forces in Sadr city in east Baghdad.

US embassy in Iraqi said that three US officials were wounded seriously in one of the attacks that targeted the green zone on Wednesday morning.

Around 5:30 a.m. three mortar shells hit the green zone. No reports about casualties.

Around 8:00 a.m. the US forces left Sadr city after clashing with Mahdi army. The final toll of the casualties is 20 people killed and 115 wounded.

Five people were injured when members of Mahdi army opened fire targeting civilians in al Kifah neighborhood in downtown Baghdad around 8:30 a.m.

Six people were injured when members of Mahdi army opened fire targeting civilians in Sadoun Street in downtown Baghdad around 9:00 a.m.

Around 9:15 a.m. three mortar shells hit the green zone. A fourth shell hit one of the buildings in Salhiyah street near the green zone. One civilians was killed and 6 others wounded.

Two civilians were wounded in an IED explosion in al Fallah intersection in Sadr city in E|ast Baghdad around 11:00 a.m.

Three civilians were killed and fifteen others were wounded when four mortar shells hit different parts in Karrada neighborhood.

Three civilians were killed and twelve others were wounded when threemortar shells hit Risala neighborhood southeast Baghdad around 12:00 p.m.

Around 1:00 p.m. mortar shells hit the green zone in downtown Baghdad. No reports about Casualties.

Two civilians were killed and five others were wounded when two mortar shells hit Sayd Idrees shrine and the social car house in Karrada neighborhood in downtown Baghdad around 1;30 p.m.

Four civilians were inured in clashes between insurgents and the Iraqi national police in Shaab neighborhood in north Baghdad around 1:30 p.m.

Around 2:00 p.m. clashes broke out between the Iraqi army and members of Mahdi army in Kadhemiyah neighborhood in North Baghdad. No casualties were reported.

Around 3:00 p.m. mortar shells hit the green zone. No casualties reported.

Four civilians were wounded when a mortar shell hit Beirut intersection in east Baghdad around 3:00 p.m.

Three civilians were wounded in an IED explosion in Darwish intersection in Saidiyah neighborhood in South Baghdad around 3:00 p.m.

Around 5:30 p.m. a mortar shell hit Kadhemiyah neighborhood in north Baghdad. No Casualties reported.

Clashes broke out between the US army and Mahdi army militia in jisr Diyala area south of Baghdad. No news about casualties reported. . .

Police found three unidentified bodies . . .

Tikrit

A source in Tikrit hospital said that a patrol from the 1st battalion the 14 brigade brought the body of Mohammed Shakir Mahmoud who died after being tortured by a US sponsored militia near al Mamlaha village east of Samara on Wednesday morning.

Eight people were killed including Judge Munaf al Azawi a court judge and his two sons, two women, a child and a man when U.S. soldiers raided two houses in al Qadisiyah neighborhood north of Tikrit, Iraqi police said. The US military said that the Coalition Forces were targeting an Al Qaida member suspected of organizing car bombs for the group. During the targeted raid they came under fire and responded. . . .

Basra

Medical source in Basra province south of Baghdad said that 33 people were killed and 150 others were wounded in the clashes that took place between the Iraqi security forces and Mahdi army in different neighborhoods of the province.

Four policemen were killed when their vehicle was targeted with RBG7 rocket near Basra police directorate on Wednesday afternoon. . .

At least seven detainees were wounded when mortar shells hit the detainees affairs department in downtown Basra on Wednesday afternoon.

Najaf

A mortar shell hit al Mujtaba police station in downtown Najaf city south of Baghdad around 8:15 p.m. causing casualties among the staff of the police station, police said. The police of Najaf announced a curfew in the city until further notice. . .

Two policemen were wounded when gunmen opened fire targeting al Mujtaba police station in downtown Najaf city on Wednesday evening

Babil

At least 60 people were killed and wounded when the MNF helicopters bombed the neighborhoods of al Askari and Nadir in Babil province south of Baghdad, the spokesman the Iraqi police in Babil province Muthanna Ahmed said. The MNF couldn’t immediately confirm the strike. '

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23 Comments:

At 6:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

All the indications, including this one from the NY Times show that the Iraqi Army has fought very badly, and that the Mahdi Army did well.

This is the worst possible outcome for the Americans and Maliki. But it will be fatal for Hakim in Basrah and other places. Getting help from the occupiers and the worst government in history does not win you public support.

Judging by the magnitude of the self-defeating ineptitude, I would say that only Bush could have "planned" it.

 
At 7:54 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is Iran playing both sides in the current Shia violence in central and souther Iraq ?

The USA seems to use a divide and conquer "Red on Red" strategy.
See:
Seymour Hersh "Iran: The Next Act"
Nov 20, 2006 ... The White House believes that if American troops stay in Iraq long enough - with enough troops - the bad guys will end up killing each other ...

or John Negroponte's Death Squads of his “El Salvador option”
See: http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=WAT20061201&articleId=4027

And the US backed Suni Concerned Local Citizens.

There are regular reports in the US media that Iran is supplying weapons to the "Special Groups" of the Mahdi Army militia of Muqtada al-Sadr.
See:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iraq/2008/03/iraq-080324-voa04.htm

"General David Petraeus, who told the BBC Monday that Sunday's rocket attack on the Green Zone provided evidence that Iranian operatives continue to fund, train, equip and direct Iraq's Shiite Special Group insurgents. The Special Groups are breakaway factions of the Mahdi Army..."

But the
Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI, formerly SCIRI)
The Iranian government arranged for the formation of SCIRI, which was based in exile in Tehran.
( See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SCIRI )

and

BADR
was based in Iran for two decades during the rule of Saddam Hussein. It consisted of several thousand Iraqi exiles, refugees, and defectors who fought alongside Iran in the Iran-Iraq War.

Can anyone help explain this ?

Thank you
Jim Byrne

 
At 8:08 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's interesting that the "Badr Corps of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, have converged on the Sadrist neighborhoods and have joined the fight against the Mahdi Army side by side with government troops." I wonder if they understand that they may be next on the list of militias to be eliminated. Regardless, this is only good news for the American/Iraqi central govt.

 
At 10:02 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Viceroy Bremer and General Sanchez wished to kill Muktada al-Sadr, and the war-mongering New York Times correspondent Burns agreed on public television the idea made sense.

I suggest what we are seeing now is an American supported attempt to destroy al-Sadr.

I am horrified at what we are about.

 
At 10:08 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

As we have been bent on destruction in Somalia, with never a complaint in the press, we are bent on destroying Iraq, and those who complain are barely noticed. Where is the least right to destroy Iraq 5 years in?

We are the destroyers.

 
At 10:09 AM, Blogger Billy Glad said...

Is this the beginning of a direct fight with Iran on the ground in Southern Iraq?

 
At 11:18 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It is not evident that the Iraqi army is winning. Video from the Mahdi side, set into this page:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7316056.stm

The Mahdi people have a captured Humvee, with the slogan Ya Qa'im Muhammad sprayed on it (Shi'ite slogan), and there's a burnt-out army personnel carrier.

I can't see how the Iraqi army can win.

 
At 11:36 AM, Blogger cognitorex said...

Guns and votes: From thug to martyr.
If I'm reading all this correctly, the institution of new active military engagement by the in-power/on-the-take Iraqi gov't against the Sadrists in Baghdad and Basra is an act of voter suppression.
Meanwhile, Sadr is burnishing his family's legacy of martyrdom by taking Ayatollah lessons and calling for Ghandi-ish non violent demonstrations in pursuit of a multi-party nationalist plan for Iraq. This nationalist aspiration is anathema to Bush/Cheney oily despotic goals.
More enlarged fighting and a resurge of death and mayhem, all with oil production becoming destabilized lead to no troops exiting Iraq.
M.A. Sadr goes barefoot in a loose robe with garlands embellishing his way. He smiles, "Vote for me", he says.
And the pundits think the Hillary/Barack feud is interesting and historic.

 
At 12:03 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This morning there was a fair and balanced exposé by USA Today of how the Renegade Firebrand Cleric makes war on the infirm:

... the more immediate threat to Iraq's stability may stem not from al-Sadr's military might, but his political power to shut down the ministries and services essential to day-to-day life. At the Health Ministry, where the staff is dominated by officials loyal to al-Sadr, the hallways were nearly empty Wednesday. The doctors, bureaucrats and black-clad militia members who normally roam the corridors heeded al-Sadr's call to stay home to protest the government crackdown. The ministry controls about 3,000 hospitals and clinics throughout Iraq and an extended strike could severely impair their operations by restricting funds, drugs and other supplies.

Yet the Rev. Muqtadá does not assail emergency room patients exclusively:

Al-Sadr loyalists "can stop all the daily affairs of government," says Hashem Hassan, a communications professor at Baghdad University. "They can stop services, schools, and bring the economy to a standstill." (...) The strike visibly impaired commerce in Baghdad, and minibuses and taxis were scarce. Officials at other ministries reported high rates of absenteeism due to the strike. Haydar al-Mussawi, a spokesman at the Ministry of Displacement and Migration, said 40% of his ministry's workers failed to show up. Some stayed home out of loyalty to al-Sadr, while others feared violence, al-Mussawi said. The strike "is forcing people to choose between their loyalty to Sadr and their loyalty to their country," he said.

Once you view the former Iraq as USAT does, it should be easy to understand why M. al-Málikí might feel it his duty to act like Cicero against Cataline: Consules darent operam ne quid detrimenti res publica caperet! Cicero would have been a fool to wait until the conspirators struck first. How can you run a proper railroad if somebody else has the power to stick a spoke in your wheels like that, even if the power is never actually used? Ordnung muß sein, nicht wahr?

On the other hand, there exist certain other students of the quagmire who insist that adherents of the Sadr Tendency are impeccably loyal to their country, the best loyalists of all, being wataní-nationalists. (Whereas Da‘wa, Supreme Council & Co. run a vile sectarian racket and furthermore want to chop their country to bits.)

But God knows best. Happy days.

 
At 12:59 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is there a tribal context to the present conflict between the two Shi'a groups? If yes, what is it?
Thanks,
m.

 
At 4:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Juan,

What do you make of thise Times of London story that seems to indicate that the Iraqi Gvt forces are losing?

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/iraq/article3631718.ece

 
At 4:14 PM, Blogger Unknown said...

Al-Maliki's offensive against Sadr illustrates that our continued occupation encourages our "allies" to pursue military conquest of political rivals, rather than a negotiated settlement. He would never have tried this without our military support.

We need to withdraw ASAP in coordination with a comprehensive "all parties" diplomatic effort to achieve a political settlement. (But withdrawing with or without one.)

 
At 4:39 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Professor Cole - would you please write a brief post explaining why the security situation deteriorated so rapidly? A brief explanation of the players - Mahdi Army, American military, Iraqi military, Iran, al-Sadr, al-Maliki would be helpful, too.

I guess what I'm asking for is a Iraq for Dummies version of the current goings on - I think it would be widely linked to - remember, not everyone has been paying as close attention to Iraq since the unbridled success of the surge.

 
At 6:29 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Prof. Cole, What credibility would you give William S. Lind in the following link in particular his belief that Iran could order the Iraqai Shia to rise up against the occupation in the event of an USA attack on Iran? Is he stretching it?
http://www.antiwar.com/lind/?articleid=12583

 
At 6:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wouldn't it be nice if reports like that were played on U.S. new's programs? All we ever get is the Bush party line, "Surge is working, surge is working, surge is working..."

 
At 9:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Iraqi people have lost and we have lost.

 
At 9:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"But God knows best."

What a profane, shameful comment. We are responsible. We are responsible.

 
At 9:55 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

' US military spokesman Major General Kevin Bergner told a news conference on Wednesday that 2,000 extra Iraqi security forces had been sent to Basra for the operation. He said it was aimed at improving security in the city ahead of provincial elections in October. '

Yeah, they are trying to quiet things before the election- not the one in October, the one in November. All the Bushies care about is pulling the wool over the eyes of the American voters until the election. After that, everything will turn out to have been the Democrats' fault.

 
At 10:13 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Juan,

Have you had a chance to peruse Kagan's latest Iraq report? Wonder if you'd have time to respond to it.

 
At 10:52 PM, Blogger Arun said...

On the bridge in Basra:

Al-Basrah.



Jaysh al-Mahdi militia destroys al-Karmah Bridge, cutting supply line to al-Basrah.



In a dispatch posted at 4:37pm Baghdad time Thursday afternoon, the Association of Muslim Scholars of Iraq (AMSI) reported that the Jaysh al-Mahdi had destroyed the al-Karmah Bridge that crosses the Shatt al-‘Arab waterway and serves as a supply route to the Iraqi regime forces in the southern city of al-Basrah.

http://www.albasrah.net/en_articles_2008/0308/iraqiresistancereport_270308.htm

 
At 11:17 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Let me see if I have this straight.
1) The Bush administration is backing al-Maliki's play against al-Sadr's Mahdi Army in Basra.
2) The Badr Corps militia of Maliki supporters ISCI are joining the fight against the Mahdi Army.
3) The ISCI advocates a loose confederation for Iraq, governed by ayatollahs. Sadr wants power to reside with the umma - the broad Muslim community and wants a strong central government.
4) The Bush administration wants a strong central government, and I assume it doesn't like the idea of another ayatollah-led theocracy in the Middle East.
5) ISCI and the Badr Corps are significantly closer to Iran than is Sadr. But the U.S. military never passes up a chance to assert that the Mahdi Army works for Iran.
6) The whole country might easily crash and burn if Maliki pushes too hard in Basra. But if Maliki fails in Basra, the Bush administration's surge, its entire policy, will be seen as a failure in an election year.

Am I wrong on any of these points? And is there any intelligent reason for Bush to be supporting Maliki in this?

 
At 12:50 AM, Blogger RadioClash said...

Tinfoil Hat Boy,

Professor Cole has a very informative article at alternet. Highly recommended reading:

http://alternet.org/story/78672/

 
At 6:34 PM, Blogger legofesto said...

Prof Cole, in November 2005 you wrote:

"Hersh reports that US Air Force officers are alarmed by the implication that Iraqi targeters may be calling down air strikes using US warplanes. I remember that Iraqi troops (mainly Kurds) were allowed to call down airstrikes in Tal Afar last August, and if my recollection serves, the Tal Afar operation may even have been conceived as an opportunity for Iraqi troops to get practice in doing so. They levelled whole neighborhoods of the Sunni Turkmen (many of whom had thrown in with Saddam in the old days).

The Air Force officers are right to be alarmed. It has been obvious to me for some time that US air power will be used to try to keep the guerrillas from taking over Iraq as the ground troops depart. This is why last August I argued for keeping some US Special Operations forces embedded with the new Iraqi army, since I felt that the US military should remain in control of the use of American air power (i.e. the laser targetting should be done by Navy Seals and others, not by Iraqis).

Likewise, I argued that the US should only make this airstrike capability available for defensive operations."


and so it has come to pass.

http://www.juancole.com/2005/11/us-air-power-to-replace-infantry-in.html

We so often hear apologists for the war saying nobody could have foreseen the consequences of the invasion and occupation (on both sides of the pond). It was always obvious a civil war situation, with US and/or UK forces supporting one side was going to happen in Basra and elsewhere in Iraq. No hindsight needed.

 

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