US Pressures Turkey not to Attack
Mahdi Army attacks Police in Karbala
Rubin on Cheney's Roll-out of Iran War
The Bush administration made a diplomatic 'full court press' with Turkish leaders to dissuade them from attacking the Kurdish Workers Party [PKK] guerrillas hiding out in Iraq after the killing of 17 Turkish troops and the capture of 8 others by the PKK on Sunday. Turkish Prime Minister Rejeb Tayyip Erdogan is alleged to have told US Secretary of State Condi Rice that the only way for the US to forestall a Turkish invasion is for its military to arrest the PKK leaders in Iraq themselves and to turn them over to Ankara.
Under all this American pressure, The PKK is said to be offering a conditional ceasefire with Ankara. The 'conditional' part doesn't seem very promising to me.
Although the US says it cannot control the PKK because it has few troops in the north of Iraq, this excuse neglects another reason that the US is essentially coddling a terrorist group that is killing fellow NATO troops. The fact is that the PKK is being coddled by Massoud Barzani and his Peshmerga, who could stop them hitting Turkey if they so desired. The other fact is that the US only has one really reliable ally in Iraq, which is the Kurds, and their paramilitary or the Peshmerga is the only element in the new Iraqi army that fights with any spunk or initiative. The US cannot afford to alienate Barzani or the Peshmerga; hence it is forced to try to wheedle Turkey into inaction in the face of a rather dramatic set of provocations.
South of Baghdad in the Shiite holy city of Karbala, fierce clashes broke out between Mahdi Army fighters and Iraqi police (most of them from the rival Badr Corps paramilitary of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq). The Mahdi Army guerrillas ambushed the police, killing 6 of them. The fighting came on the heels of a US military strike on a building being used by guerrillas in Sadr City (which is politically largely Sadrist) that killed 49. The Iraqi government maintains that many of the dead were civilians, including women and children. The US apparently arrested a prominent Karbala-based Mahdi Army leader, named Abdul Hadi al-Muhammadawi, then in Sadr City, during its operation.
Reuters reports civil war violence for Monday. Major incidents:
'
MOSUL - Five bodies, including one of a female lawyer, were found in various parts of Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.
BAGHDAD - Police said they found five bodies dumped across Baghdad on Monday.
BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb targeting an Iraqi army patrol killed one soldier and wounded two others in the Jamiea district of western Baghdad, police said. . .
BAGHDAD - Police found six bodies, victims of violence, across Baghdad on Sunday, police said. . .
BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb killed two people and wounded 13 when it exploded in the Karrada district of central Baghdad, police said.
BAGHDAD - Two roadside bombs killed two people and wounded eight others, including three policemen, when they exploded in quick succession in the southern Baghdad outskirt of Zaafaraniya, police said.
BAGHDAD - Gunmen killed Ahmed al-Mashhadani, an advisor of senior Sunni politician Adnan al-Dulaimi, on Thursday, Dulaimi's party said. . .
KUT - Gunmen killed a former member of the ousted Baath Party in a drive-by shooting in the city of Kut, 170 km (105 miles) southeast of Baghdad, police said.
IFECH - Abbas al-Ghurabi, a local Sadr official in the town of Ifech near the southern city of Diwaniya, was found critically wounded hours after local police had arrested him, officials in Sadr's office said.
MOSUL - A roadside bomb targeting a police patrol killed one policeman and wounded four, including one policeman, in the northern city of Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said. . .
ISKANDARIYA - Gunmen killed an automotive engineer in the town of Iskandariya, 40 km (25 miles) south of Baghdad, police said.
ISKANDARIYA - A roadside bomb killed two men on Sunday evening in the town of Iskandariya, police said. '
Barnett Rubin follows Cheney's roll-out of his campaign for war on Iran, a roll-out of which his sources warned us last month. He joins Fareed Zakariya in asking what planet we are on if we think Iran a threat to the international order.
Chalmers Johnson at Tomdispatch.com on intellectual fallacies of the 'war on terror.'
Labels: Iraq
posted by Juan Cole @ 10/23/2007 12:30:00 AM
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Cheney lives in another dimension. He is obsessed with attacking Iran, in part, because it is insane and the majority do not want it. Thus, he sees his authority threatened, his power diminished, his desires thwarted; and this makes him even more determined to have what he wants. It simply does not matter to him that there would be serious and quite possibly irreparable consequences to such an act. Cheney wants what he wants, when he wants it. All mere mortals must do his bidding. His ego outweighs his body mass. Personally, I dont think the man is playing with a full deck. His multiple surgeries have left him with a diminished ability to reason. He is paranoid and obsessive. If Bush finally caves in to Cheney's demands, it is only because Bush is not in any better shape than Cheney,and this, without the excuse of coronary bypasses and open heart surgery.Both men are obviously and patently dysfunctional. They simply do not learn from mistakes or even admit they make them. They are rigid extremists that cannot think beyond the end of their noses.I hope that Cheney's current bout of threats and bullying are simply that: threats and bullying. If it is, however, part of a plan to actually attack Iran, the results will be an even bigger disaster than what is happening in Iraq.
It is hard to buy this cheap theatrical. Something had been cooked up between Washington and Turkey or Washington has strategy on its own. It is very obvious the U.S. is behind this impending Turkish invasion. One possible scenario is that the U.S. will be called on to keep the peace and therefore setup the military bases they planned and hold tighter rain on the Kirkuk oil fields and pipelines to Turkey. There are reports that the reserve in Kirkuk could equal that of Saudi’s. Kurdistan had some sort of independence that the U.S. will feel needs to be cropped up and insert itself and forces deeper to secure resources.
If the Kurds did get their independence, they would be landlocked between Turkey, Iran and the Iraq remnants. Why are they willing to risk alienating an export route (Turkey) for oil and other commerce? What does the PKK think they can "win"?
" the US is essentially coddling a terrorist group that is killing fellow NATO troops."
It was reported yesterday that the PKK also massacred innocent civilians aboard a bus. We are harboring true terrorists.
This is a road under construction that the world is walking through. Let’s revise what happened and to where this road may bring us. I believe that we are at the beginning of elimination process of the Kurds in the region. The goal of this war for US is oil, isn't it?
One of the largest oil fields of Iraq is in the territories of Iraqi Kurds at the moment which is called Kirkuk. It is a valuable crown jewel for the one who holds it. It’s certain that there is an option to establish specious new sovereign state separated from Iraq which can easily be controlled by US, we know the name Kurdistan. But this new sovereign nation doesn’t have integrity inside, no common culture, no common language, no state tradition, has so many enemies either inside or outside. How long do you think that weak country will survive? On the other hand most importantly, it’s a high priced safe keeper besides its high level risks. Establishing a new country is an expensive job, above all if this country doesn’t have any resource rather than oil, no industry, no agriculture etc. then it’s a top ticket. So what other options US has? Turkey is not practically in a position to lay claim on the oil reserves and has some other priorities as well. Letting Turkey to control the region has no substantial cost to US. In addition this will reduce the Sunni resistance. This way US will have the opportunity to share a bit of oil income with the entire central controlling authority of Iraq to calm them down also.
I don’t believe that US doesn’t want more NATO forces in Iraq. I don’t believe that Israel doesn’t oppose the invasion while US crying out. Obviously it’s impossible for US to invite Turkey, because there are other neighbors who are ready to invade for the same reasons. It’s not a strong potential but if any armed conflict occurs with Iran, US will have the opportunity to get into Iran from the east of Iraq but Iran is not crazy to attack any Turkish controlling territory.
How Turkey and world are cooking up? In every case Turkey's invasion will be a legal operation which is a similar action done against Afghanistan by US. The Armenian case comes out at the same time; to put pressure on Turkish Government so on the people. US allow an increasing pkk activity in Turkey; to put pressure on the Turkish people so on the government and to be noted by the rest of the world. Turkish soldiers kidnapped so the world can’t move any further especially the ones who said nothing while recent Israel-Lebanon war. More world messages will be dispatched until the time of operation. When we witness pkk origin bombings in the Turkish city centers and assassination of a Turkish Politician then it will tell us that it’s the time for the invasion to begin. The main purpose is to moderate the possible sanctions towards Turkey. In my opinion there will be a reaction at the end from the world but the solid ones most probably will come from only Russia and Iran.
Heard you on Democracy Now. Though it's always a relief to hear opinions which make sense, this administration is as incapable of taking informed advice now as it was when we invaded Iraq.
Re: Barzani and the PKK. Barzani certainly does maintain relations with the PKK as a bargaining chip to use on Turkey and is not inclined to cooperate fully with Turkey without some agreement on the status of Kirkuk and Iraqi Kurdistan in general. That's probably a stupid plan, since Turkey is far more powerful and Barzani would probably be more successful in assuring long-term autonomy or even independence by gradually convincing the Turks that they need not fear Iraqi Kurdistan. Most readers are probably aware of the political dynamic in which Barzani and perhaps Talabani maintain relations with the PKK to pressure Turkey.
However, there are two other issues that bear consideration. First, neither the KDP nor PUK are militarily able to confront the PKK right now because most of their elite troops are in Baghdad, Mosul or Kirkuk. It's not simply a matter of deciding to shut the PKK down. I've spent a lot of time in the mountains on the Iraqi Kurdistan side of that border, and it would take tens of thousands of elite troops to even begin to secure the area. Neither Barzani nor Talabani have the capacity right now. Frankly, neither does Turkey - only political reform in Turkey will do that. Until there's a major civil rights movement in Turkey addressing the causes of the civil war, young people will continue to go to the mountains and fight. Over the years, I have come to know many people in Silope on the Turkish side of the border, and nearly all extended families have someone with the PKK. It's like Hizbullah in southern Lebanon.
On the Iraqi side of the border, neither Barzani nor Talabani have the public support necessary to eliminate the PKK, even if they wanted to. The Iraqi Kurdish public is angrier at Turkey and more supportive of the PKK than at any time I have witnessed over the last 15 years of visiting or living in the region. Barzani actually has limited capacity to act because anti-Turkish sentiment is growing and his own troops are likely to turn a blind eye as the PKK disperses, even if they are ordered to kill them. In part this negative attitude is because Turkey has been shelling Iraqi Kurdish villages for a decade now, and hundreds of Iraqi Kurdish civilians have died. Turkish tanks were dug in on mountaintops a few kilometers inside the Iraqi side of the border south of Kani Masi long before this recent flare-up, and from time to time they kill people. It's a little like south Lebanon and Israel. At times in the past, Israel could find allies in south Lebanon, even among the Amal militia who were sick of the Palestinians and just wanted to be left alone. As was the case with the Palestinians in south Lebanon in the early 80's, the PKK killed a number of Iraqi Kurdish village leaders and created many enemies on the Iraqi side of the border in the early 90's. But now, Israel is pretty much hated by everyone in South Lebanon and the same people who once supported Amal now have become Hizbullah. The exact same dynamic has occurred now in Iraqi Kurdistan. Turkey simply has no more local allies, and through brutality and stupidity, succeeded in doing what once would have been unthinkable - created strong alliances between the Iraqi Kurds in the border mountains and the PKK. This is despite the fact that the PKK and the Iraqi Kurdish villagers share little in terms of ideology and even speak different dialects.
The result will be that the KDP and PUK will not intervene, and so Turkey will, on a limited basis if they have any sense at all. It certainly won't solve the problem - which has no military solution anyway.
What worries me more is that Turkey may decide to kill Barzani at some point - they have sent assassination squads into Iraq before and may do so again. Should Turkey kill a major Kurdish leader in Iraq, the Iraqi Kurds are likely to lift all restraints and openly arm the PKK - which is emphatically not the case now.
I hope everyone keeps a cool head, because the Iraqi Kurds are capable of creating real havoc in SE Turkey, far more than is currently the case. Should Turkey decide to actually invade and occupy Iraqi Kurdistan at some point in the future, the result will be a disaster for both Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds.
ref : “...asking what planet we are on if we think Iran a threat to the international order[?]”
“I cannot judge their intentions, but supposing that Iran does intend to acquire a nuclear bomb, it would need between another three and eight years to succeed,” ElBaradei told Le Monde. “All the intelligence services agree on that.”
Ariel Cohen, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs: The Coming U.S.-Russian Train Wreck : “...this [Russian] official does not believe Iran will ever develop nuclear intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). However, he recognized that Iran may be only 18 months away from producing enough ‘fissile material’ to arm an atomic bomb. Thus, as Iran already possesses medium-range missiles (IRBMs) capable of hitting parts of Europe and all of the Middle East...”
Nuclear Iran: Repercussions for Turkey and Saudi Arabia : “...A nuclear Iran would alter the Middle Eastern balance of power as well as create a risk for policymakers and military leaders in the United States and Israel.”
Yossi Alpher, the head of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University and an adviser to former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, has an op-ed in the Daily Star (Lebanon) titled Call Annapolis off, it will only make things worse. Annapolis is the location of Bush's peace conference between Israel and the Palestinians. Coincidentally Ehud Barak will be the closing speaker at AIPAC's national conference this weekend.
Alpher argues that the "unwinding of this conference - its cancellation, failure, or endorsement of a weak statement that in any case cannot be acted upon by Abbas, Olmert and Bush - will accelerate the negative dynamics in the region." He therefore recommends postponing the peace conference and concentrating first on "building Palestinian security and governmental institutions and rebuilding confidence between Israelis and Palestinians."
Not that more evidence is needed that Bush has lost the Iraq war, there's this from USA Today
US Airstrikes Up Five Fold
Mr Cole is totally right that US is very hesitant to fight against PKK which US has also declared as a terorist organisation. Many people in Turkey see this point and therefore do not trust the US administration. On the other hand, the Northern Iraqi Kurdish administration is totally insincere with its policies and does not purge its territories from terrorists who attack a neighboring country. Imagine you have a neighbor who protects a person in his house who attacks your house and kills a member of your family, what would you think and what would you do? Both the US administration and Iraqis should not close their eyes to losing a strategic partner in the Middle East.
nice job keep up the good work
Comment corrected
Quoting Juan:
Although the US says it cannot control the PKK because it has few troops in the north of Iraq, this excuse neglects another reason that the US is essentially coddling a terrorist group that is killing fellow NATO troops. The fact is that the PKK is being coddled by Massoud Barzani and his Peshmerga, who could stop them hitting Turkey if they so desired. The other fact is that the US only has one really reliable ally in Iraq, which is the Kurds, and their paramilitary or the Peshmerga is the only element in the new Iraqi army that fights with any spunk or initiative. The US cannot afford to alienate Barzani or the Peshmerga; hence it is forced to try to wheedle Turkey into inaction in the face of a rather dramatic set of provocations.
Juan seems to have missed the real reason for the US "coddling" the PKK.
Pepe Escobar reported in the Asia Times on Oct 13, 2007 that the US (and Israel!) appeared to be encouraging the PKK’s Iranian arm PJAK "to stir up trouble inside Iran." Escobar quoted an undated UPI report. At any rate, his claim seems to be amply corroborated by the report in today’s New York Times.
http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IJ13Ak01.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/23/world/middleeast/23kurds.html
Seems the US/Barzani in a bind similar to the one presented to the Taliban over Bin Laden.
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