US Gives Turkey Intel on Kurds
Militia Rule in Basra
The US is giving Turkey intelligence on the Kurdish Workers Party, according to Reuters. It seems to me that there is a contradiction between US calls for Turkish restraint and this attempt to supply Ankara with "actionable" intelligence. Is it that the US wants Turkey to hit some parts of the PKK in some parts of Iraq? Or is it just an attempt to make the Turks happy while not doing anything that the Kurdistan Regional Authority in Iraq could object to?
Meanwhile, the Turkish military says it killed 15 PKK fighters near the Iraqi border.
Basra's police chief, Maj. Gen Jalil Khalaf, has admitted that Basra and the nearby port of Umm Qasr are basically under militia rule and that his policemen either cannot fight them or have been actively infiltrated by them. Gasoline and kerosene smuggling are worth billions in that area.
Nevertheless, PM Nuri al-Maliki is insisting that his forces are in a position to take over the security command in Basra. Al-Maliki seems to define such readiness as willingness to take on the "terrorists" by which he means the tiny number of Sunni covert operatives in the deep south. He doesn't count the Shiite militias in that category.
The Iraqi government is dismissing warnings of the US Army Corps of Engineers that a major dam north of Mosul is structurally unsound and could collapse, with apocalyptic consequences for Iraq. This pie in the sky attitude about all the problems facing Iraq seems infectious. Maybe the Iraqi government caught it from Karl Rove, the Republican spinmeister who has convinced over a quarter of Americans that Bush is doing 'a good job' in Iraq! I have a sinking feeling that Mosul and Baghdad face their own Katrina (actually much, much worse) down the line, if the Iraqi officials are this unconcerned.
Oil production in Iraq is down from this quarter a year ago, but the capacity of the country's production facilities has risen. The northern fields and pipelines are better guarded now.
An interview with Dahr Jamail on what the US military occupation looks like on the ground to ordinary Iraqis.
Ali Eterazi on Islamic reform and 'post-Islamism'.
Michael Schwartz at Tomdispatch.com on the place of oil among US motivations for its invasion and occupation of Iraq.
Labels: Iraq
posted by Juan Cole @ 10/31/2007 08:05:00 AM
|
Facebook
6 Comments:
Oil was not the only factor. Lets not forget Israel and the Pro-Israeli lobby's intense pressure in favor of the war.
“……..Is it that the US wants Turkey to hit some parts of the PKK in some parts of Iraq?.....”
I said before this could not happen without U.S-Turkey prior understanding. It is all theater that is well orchestrated. Either the U.S. wants to dispose of a patsy ally (PKK) without looking a betrayal and be on the receiving end of hostilities, or the U.S. Turkey made a deal for Turkey to invade Kurdistan. Of course the U.S. will have to side with NATO countries and that mean the U.S. will be interjecting forces in Kurdistan between the Turks and Kurds, effectively occupying Kurdistan, ( note Mosul handover to free troupes down south) and that semi independence and arrogant expression made by the Kurds are wiped out. Especially the oil fields that the Kurds are so possessive of it, there are reports that they are using the PKK to blow the pipes out, so that Kurdish (Kirkuk) national oil resources are not exported through Turkey without the full benefits to Kurds. Turkey could have received some oil promissory note too for that invasion cost, kinda cost plus agreement.LOL. When savvy and elder American political professional going to get clues about how the U.S. Government works around the planet to get what it wants.
You can not help giving these people that plots like this the respect for the intelligence despite
the evil natures of the plots. It si really a form of arts.
Re Basra, oil, and impending intra-shiite war
Without control of the oil exports and ports of entry, Maliki is just Mayor of the Green Zone, with Odierno his sherif.
The Kurdish militias sit astride the N. piplines, waiting the propitious time to take Kirkuk and hoping to straighten their zone of control SW to the Tigris river, absorbing the Northern production area and Kurdish areas from Ninevah to Diyala.
The Sunni tribes and Marines control the upper Euphrates river and road to Amman, all the way back to Baghdad city limits. No Dawa need apply out West. Iraq's southern oil capitol and only port is contested by opposition Shiite parties and miitias. The 'fired' governor of Basra is still holding the governate, months after Maliki threatened to move in with the 'Iraqi' army. The Basra chief of police is unable to command his troops reliably. Tens of millions in oil revenue is flowing to whoever chas teh guns to put deals for $90 bbl crude delivery together.
Baghdad is essentially under lock-down, the war zoned into neighborhoods and barrios, for the time being. Electricity, food and fuel are being rationed, traded and used for collective reward or punishment by this or that faction.
The great Petraeus' counter-offensive has paused for a breath, with the collateral risks of bombardment being substituted for the military casualties associated with surface patrols. Seems sort of opposite of the COIN doctrine of taking risks to protect civilians.
It sure is good to hear that the US finally has a winning strategy to get Pres. Clinton out of Iraq by 2013. Maybe.
"Peace, peace, but there is no peace."
On the dam. There was a report made in 1951 by British engineers proposing various sites for dams on the Tigris and the Euphrates. It is fairly widely available in academic libraries, though not on the internet. When the dams were built under Saddam in the 1980s, other sites were chosen. Although I do not remember what was said about the Mosul dam, the site of the Haditha dam was definitely advised against. So I suppose that is another dam in danger.
However, there is a factor that may not have been taken into account by the US engineers in preparing their assessment of danger, and that is the rate of alluviation. The waters of both the Tigris and the Euphrates carry large amounts of alluvium, washed off the Turkish mountains, and which settles on the bottom when the water is stopped by a dam. At Samarra, the dam was finished in 1954. When I first went to Samarra in 1977, there was an open lake behind the dam. Now there is only dry land and a river channel. The Mosul dam has been in use for half that time. I suspect there is much less water behind the dam than supposed, and thus less danger, but we have not seen the detailed report.
I am only speculating here. There are other factors; the alluvium might be trapped by the Turkish dams upstream, and they will have have the problem in the future. Though it might be a reason the Iraqi engineers are less worried than the US. It depends on how you make the calculations.
Nevertheless, this is a problem typical of an occupation that declares itself not an occupation. The Iraqi government is effectively prevented from acting, and then the occupiers say "not us", fault of the Iraqi government.
"Actionable intelligence" is a tall order for the US in Iraqi Kurdistan. They blew it on the raids against Iranian diplomats in Erbil, and they don't really have any independent information other than what they get from various sources related to the KRG or the Kurdish political parties. The US presence in Iraqi Kurdistan is very small and their capacity to conduct independent intelligence operations against the PKK is pretty limited.
The KRG is not exactly thrilled with the US liaison personnel either. I wonder how much cooperation they will get, if any. Most State Department types don’t know much about the area. One of the main US State Department political advisors assigned to Iraqi Kurdistan grew up in Turkey, is fluent in Turkish, and is very sympathetic to Attaturk-style Turkish nationalism (also a Christian fundamentalist), without much concern or even awareness of how that offends Kurdish sensitivities. Good luck on cooperation.
My hope is that since the US is probably not in a position to provide real information on the location of PKK members, that they at least provide information on Iraqi Kurdish villages that the Turks should not destroy. Turkey has been very indiscriminate in shooting up villages - including several sites in the Amadiyah valley and the town of Shiladeza, which were repeatedly strafed by Turkish fighter planes in the 90's. More recently, the Turks have attacked villages such as Begova, Kani Masi, Bedoh, and Batufa all of which are closer to the border.
Although I admit to sympathies for the Kurdish position, I have a great deal of respect for Erdogan. He is in a terrible position right now, and the US is not helping much. The US needs to support him even though US intelligence is probably very weak. Erdogan has the unenviable task of mollifying the Turkish nationalists in the military on the one hand, who’s excesses are directly responsible for the PKK’s growing popularity. On the other hand, he has to avoid pissing off the Kurdish population in Turkey - a critical constituency in the last election. The Kurds in Turkey are against massive intervention. They are even more against economic sanctions, which is why Erdogan is trying to target only Barzani's shell companies. He’s really boxed in, because he also actually has to control the PKK. Masoud Barzani is doing a great disservice to his people and I wish he would stop undermining his position by playing this game of chicken with Turkey. Erdogan is a far better negotiating partner than the awful Turkish nationalists who would likely replace him if Barzani succeeds in forcing a political crisis in Turkey.
The whole thing is quite sad. The other day, the New York Times had a front page photo of PKK recruits that corresponds to my limited experience of the group - mostly teenagers, half of them girls, who in normal circumstances would be living very different lives. While I don't condone their actions, it troubles me that they will be slaughtered like so many sheep, sacrificed for some future deal between Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan. Meanwhile, zero progress will be made on the vile human rights and economic conditions in SE Turkey that caused them to head to the mountains in the first place. And people commenting here and elsewhere will blame them for arrogance, or for being US stooges, or whatever, without understanding or sympathy for their circumstances or history.
from the linked interview with Dahr Jamail: "I urge people to read the National Security Strategy, along with the Quadrennial Defense Review Report. These give a pretty clear picture of US policy in the Middle East - which is essentially to control the natural resources and the shipping lanes."
i would to these two rationale: to deny access to Iraqi Oil for other countries ( i.e., Red Communist China, etc ) and to warn other countries not to establish an Oil Bourse in any denomination other than the usa dollar ( i.e., Euro ) which is what Saddam Hussein was in the midst of doing when the invasion took place.
note that i did not list anything relating to isreal, though this is certainly a Huge factor ( i.e., the amerikan zionist zeal for amerika to send troops in harms way for the benefit of isreal, the push for the bombing of Iran, etc etc ).
Post a Comment
<< Home