Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Sunday, September 30, 2007

The End of Bonapartism and the War on Terror

NYT columnist Tom Friedman's column, "9/11 is over," sounds the death knell for the Neoconservative use of 9/11 and is in particular an attack on Rudy Giuliani.

Friedman's main arguments are that the Bush administration's approach to dealing with al-Qaeda has so damaged the US image abroad, has so inconvenienced foreign travelers and visiting business investors, and has so diverted spending from essential US infrastructure such as bridges and airports, that it risks making the US economically backward in a globalizing world.

The column is significant because it argues that Bushism- Cheneyism is bad for business. The United States is the world's foremost business society, and virtually everything in the society (low taxes on the wealthy, no health care for the middle classes and poor, no protections for labor organizers, favoring of certain kinds of international trade over lower middle class job security, etc.) is arranged for the convenience of the business classes. If Friedman's conviction becomes widespread in that community, the pressures to abandon the 'War on Terror' will be irresistible.

Bushism-Cheneyism has aspects of Bonapartism, whereby the state rules in an authoritarian way and disregards the people, representing itself as the true representative of the business classes. In fact, it serves only a small spectrum of corporate cronies of the ruling elite, disadvantaging almost everyone else. It expands government, but not into provision of useful infrastructure (bridges, airports), but toward the provision of "security" (often just a label for make-work unnecessary jobs, such as extra al-Qaeda-fighting police in Wyoming) or of artificial "investment opportunities" such as an Iraq under US military occupation..

Friedman is the voice of the non-Libertarian business interests, the ones that recognize that certain necessary public goods will not be provided by corporations and so must be provided by government. He also represents those who are unafraid of global competition (thus his slamming of Lou Dobbs), and indeed are convinced that the big money-making opportunities on the horizon lie in globalization and in removal of barriers to international trade, investment and finance. (They are undeterred for some reason by the 1997 melt-down in Asia, which occurred precisely because governments unwisely opened the door to unregulated international speculation).

For the 'globalized business' crowd, the Iraq war was not a sacred mission, as it was for the Neoconservatives, but rather just another lowering of barriers to investment and business (which might also have opened the Arab world up, which would have been all to the good). The Iraq War worked in part precisely because both the Bonapartist and the global-capital fractions within the business classes could agree that it might end Arab socialism and end the barriers to doing business among the 300 million people of the Middle East.

Friedman writes:


' I’d love to see us salvage something decent in Iraq that might help tilt the Middle East onto a more progressive pathway. That was and is necessary to improve our security. But sometimes the necessary is impossible — and we just can’t keep chasing that rainbow this way. '


In other words, the Iraq War was a business investment, which was a bit of a risk but entirely justifiable at the time (you can hear the nervous CEO explaining to the Board of Directors). But the investment has gone south, isn't working out, and no successful businessman throws good money after bad.

The attack on Giuliani comes because he is still attached to the new acquisition and does want to go on hemorrhaging funds.

It is time, Friedman argues in contrast, to cut our losses and sell off this white elephant of an acquisition (the whole 'War on Terror' including Iraq), which is bleeding money, hurting the firm's image, scaring off investors, and forestalling needed new investments in key growth sectors.

USA, Inc. is moving on.

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21 Comments:

At 2:47 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Your analysis is spot-on: US policy caters for a small band of businesses (top oil; arms; and lobby.) But that is no Bushism-Cheneyism, it is the whole of the Washington elite. They all sing different renditions of the same thing, to cater for all the tastes, but it is the same damn song.

The Americans can only get out of the rot by voting for decent independents. Any of the Dems or the Republicans would do the same but slightly different: good marketing that's all.

 
At 3:06 PM, Blogger Hidden Histories said...

Great analysis, Dr. Cole. I'd be curious to hear Friedman respond to Naomi Klein's Disaster Capitalism argument(s).

I think one of the things you bring out, which even people ostensibly paying attention can miss: the fun and profit of the Iraq war is going to a very limited number of people. As you note, originally, there was considerable overlap in these two groups:

For the 'globalized business' crowd, the Iraq war was not a sacred mission, as it was for the Neoconservatives, but rather just another lowering of barriers to investment and business (which might also have opened the Arab world up, which would have been all to the good). The Iraq War worked in part precisely because both the Bonapartist and the global-capital fractions within the business classes could agree that it might end Arab socialism and end the barriers to doing business among the 300 million people of the Middle East.


I'd argue the failure was the result of two things:

1) The ideological rigidity of the folks running this reorganization. Rather than taking advantage of the existing state infrastructure, they effectively demolished it, hoping to build a kind of raw crony capitalism from the ground up. It ended up being more an experiment in crony corruption that led to utter disaster as business friends and connected US firms were given preferential treatment, regulatory mechanisms were ignored and the consumers--in this case one presumes, the Iraqi public -- were utterly ignored. Under such a shock regime, free market principles hardly even entered the arena.

2) Rather than funneling the money through local Iraqi firms and small Iraqi businesses which would have offset set some of the huge unemployment problems caused by the de-baathification process (ie, destruction of the state 'socialist' apparatus), the Neocons made sure that much of the infrastructure project money went to American / Western firms who hired even cheaper labor from outside the country. In some instances this process apparently verges on .

Even without such unethical and high dramatics as kidnapping and slave labor, the economics for that the moment in Iraq seem fairly clear. Outsource to your buddy's in the US, who outsource the labor to even cheaper labor than the Iraqis themselves can provide.

Globalization at its finest. It's just happens to be an extremely counterproductive way to rebuild a country.

 
At 3:19 PM, Blogger David Wearing said...

Juan - your identification of the significance of his piece is correct, in my view. Could be a watershed. As Chomsky's often pointed out about Vietnam, that war was over essentially when the business community told the state to call if off.

However, Friedman's epiphany notwithstanding, there still remain some surprisingly resiliant dead-enders who refuse to give up the old religion. For example, have you read this crock of sh...I mean this provocative analysis of the situation in Iraq written by Bartle Bull and published in The Sunday Times, (which is owned by, who would have guessed, Rupert Murdoch)?

Its entitled "How we've won the war in Iraq". Apparently its not a joke.

What's interesting about the piece is not the sheer delusion of the overall analysis so much as the straightforward untruths that the writer is prepared to peddle in support of his fantasy.

e.g [with comments in square brackets]

"What violence remains is largely local and criminal."
[Juan - you recently presented here graphs showing that most attacks are on coalition forces or their local allies]

"Nor do two or three improvised explosive devices a day, for all the personal tragedy involved in each casualty, make a Vietnam"
[ two or three?!?!?!?! ]

"[Iraq] has not been taken over by Iran."
[No, apart from the governing coalition being stuffed with longtime Iranian allies and the largest militia being trained by the Revolutionary Guard]

"[Iraq ] has rejected mass revenge against the Sunnis."
[really? so what's happening to e.g the Sunni population of Baghdad? Can Bull please visit them in Damascus and Amman and explain it to them?]

"The country has ceased to be a threat to the world or its region."
[In fact, Iraq has become a threat to the world and its region. Previously, it was only a "threat" in the minds of neo-con fantasists and an American public subjected to months of propaganda]

"At least 80,000 and perhaps 200,000 or more Iraqis have been killed since the invasion, almost all of them by Iraqis and other Arabs (although this should be weighed against the 1.5m people killed by war and political violence during the 35-year Ba'ath reign)."
[the JH/Lancet study identifies the bulk of attributable deaths as being caused by the coalition, if memory serves. And recall that the Nuremberg protocols place the ultimate responsibility for the costs of an aggressive war on the party that starts it. And btw, is he counting in that 1.5m killed in the Saddam era the estimated 1m killed by US/UK sanctions?
And where does the 200,000 come from? The Lancet? But that was October 04. Bull must know that estimate's been updated to 650,000 as of last year. If he accepts the validity of the estimate, why won't he quote the most up to date count?]

And then there's this quote, at the end of the piece:
"Here is an eloquent answer to the question of when American troops will leave Iraq. They will leave Iraq when the Iraqis, through their elected leadership, tell them to."

Note the crucial phrase "through their elected leadership". Polls have showed time and again that a large majority of Iraqis want the US out either immediately or on a short timetable. Support for the Bush-touted "Korea model", where the US presence is basically permanent, must be approximately zero. The elected government in the Green Zone is simply ignoring its people on these issues.

One suspects (putting it mildly) that Bull knows full well that the Iraqi government is overruling its people on the most crucial issue facing that country. So he inserts the phrase "through their elected leadership" to turn a denial of democracy into an expression of it. And then declares victory. There are no words for this.

Those of us who take our daily dose of Informed Comment are capable of dealing with this sort of thing when we see it floating downstream towards us. Sadly I fear those who rely on less informed sources may wind up taking Bull's s**t seriously.

Best wishes
David Wearing
The Democrat's Diary

 
At 4:16 PM, Blogger Disputo said...

Wow.

Does this mean the end of the Friedman Unit?

 
At 4:55 PM, Blogger karlof1 said...

"the Iraq War was a business investment"

I would have to say that all wars share this trait--Avarice.

 
At 4:57 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I still can’t get uninterrupted cellphone service between my home in Bethesda and my office in D.C. But I recently bought a pocket cellphone at the Beijing airport and immediately called my wife in Bethesda — crystal clear.

Now, that's something to get bent out of shape over!

Clearly, the Iraq War was a big mistake!

Some thought processes I just do not understand...

 
At 5:25 PM, Blogger eurofrank said...

Who on earth let him into the country? What on earth is our shiny new border and immigration force for?


And the war drags on

 
At 5:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Let me tell you something. I don't live in America, but I've visited many times......up until 2002.

I work in the field of commercialisation of intellectual property generated by University research.

As a direct result of Bush, I will never, ever visit the USA again and I will ensure that no commercial opportunities will be made available to any American company anytime....ever again.

I will not put up with your so called "Security", draconian and unjust laws nor will I let any of my staff submit either.

Last technology was a new anti clotting drug which showed considerable promise - its going to Europe. So is a new anaesthetic.

 
At 6:56 PM, Blogger Mike Breton said...

It is laughable for Friedman to talk of overcoming "our" stupidity while still displaying the same striking parochialism and willful ignorance that is a required litmus test of patriotic loyalty for our political and media elite, today.

I could not help noticing, for instance, one off-topic remark made in passing that is so illustrative of the way our ruling elites insistently remain within an ideological cocoon. In mentioning Guantanamo, he says it should be closed and turned into a "free field hospital for poor Cubans". Yeah. Just what those Cubans need -- free healthcare from the US just like we lucky Americans all receive.

In fact, free healthcare is one of Cuba's largest exports. Literally hundreads of thousands of Latin Americans have received free corrective eye surgery from Cuba. This same program is offered to Americans, but Americans risk arrest by their own government if they take advantage of it. I would really like Friedman -- or any of the other of his ilk -- to expalin why they are so committed to offering free healthcare to foreign populations that already have it, but are so adamently against providing it to Americans -- even to the point of threatening citizens with arrest if they dare seek free healthcare abroad.

 
At 8:53 PM, Blogger karlof1 said...

Interesting, seemingly kneejerk reaction to the Senate vote on Partition from the US Embassy in Iraq (sorry, no link, noted in Yahoo/AP article), "In a highly unusual statement, the U.S. Embassy said resolution would seriously hamper Iraq's future stability.

"Our goal in Iraq remains the same: a united, democratic, federal Iraq that can govern, defend, and sustain itself," the unsigned statement said.

"Iraq's leaders must and will take the lead in determining how to achieve these national aspirations. ... attempts to partition or divide Iraq by intimidation, force or other means into three separate states would produce extraordinary suffering and bloodshed," it said.

"The statement came just hours after representatives of Iraq's major political parties denounced the Senate proposal."

The item notes that the PR was unsigned, so it will be interesting if it's allowed to stand or is "reclarified."

Otherwise, the item is full of the usual distortions regarding al-Qaida. I find it interesting that AP deigns it proper to use quotation marks when the Iraqi military says it killed how ever many but doesn't when the official is US military. Link to Yahoo item, http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070930/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq

 
At 9:34 PM, Blogger sherm said...

Friedman's best of all possible worlds always starts on the day his latest column is published.

 
At 11:40 PM, Blogger clio said...

USA, Inc. is moving on.

If that is so, and it's way past time, let us pray that USA, Inc. moves on before Cheney manages to bomb Iran.

 
At 3:40 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Money is the root of all evil." Gold led to the destruction of civilizations, now it is oil. Killing a million Iraqis, destroying their country, starving their populace, countless maimed, widowed, orphaned....THIS was a failed business investment?!!!!I would like to cry out in anguish "Mother-of-God, say it isn't so!" But, I know it is so. Re-read "The Arms of Krupp." Read it and weep to see history repeat itself over and over again. And, I would like to remind Mr. Friedman, that the outcome of avarice and arrogance is inevitably failure. It may take time, but Rome will fall.

 
At 6:34 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Embassy Baghdad website:
http://iraq.usembassy.gov

I believe I noted in these pages that Friedman abandoned the FU in August during an interview with Charlie Rose. Around the 16th, IIRC.

I believe the indicator of central tendency, whether mean, median, average, whatever, of the Lancet study 18 months ago was 655,000 extra deaths, maybe as high as 900,000+.
Adjusting for the ensuing 18 months, the Lancet number for late 2007 - the middle number - must be close to or exceed 1M.

OFF TOPIC

the US has been trying to find the right formula to fix all of Iraq.

But now that we are moving away from a central federal govt in control of the whole country,

We should instead be experimenting with different ways to stabilize discrete portions.

Avid Student

 
At 7:46 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm not sure what it has done elsewhere in the region, but the Iraq Disaster has been good for American business here in Jordan. Before 2003 Iraq was the number one destination for Jordanian exports. Today? The U.S.A., of course.

 
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