Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Monday, August 20, 2007

Mortar Shells Kill 10 in downtown Baghdad

US Mil organizes Sunni Neighborhood Watch

The NYT reports that the US military is setting up neighborhood militias in Sunni Arab areas, called "Guardians," to patrol and curb Salafi Jihadi gangs. Two questions come to mind. Why is it that those hundreds of thousands of Iraqi police cannot do this job (it is after all their job)? And, will the Sunni Guardians be loyal to the Shiite government of PM Nuri al-Maliki, most of whose Sunni Arabs have jumped ship?

American military thinkers and officials are saying that Britain has lost Basra, that the British departure from the city "could be ugly," and that in the aftermath a major fight among Shiite militias may break out in Iraq's only major port. The British, who seem intent on leaving over the next year, defend their work in the city. There are fears that British preparations to leave, and to allow the political and military situation in Basra to be what it will be, may enter into fierce congressional debates in the US around the awaited Sept. 15 report on Iraq by Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker.

The US military hasn't found any Iranian trainers in Iraq or any training camps, but like Saddam's weapons of mass destruction, that you can't find them doesn't mean they are not there. What I cannot understand is why the Pentagon needs Iranians in Iraq as a plot device. The Iraqi Badr Corps, tens of thousands strong, was trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, and it has been alleged that some Badr corpsmen are still on the Iranian payroll. It is the paramilitary of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, America's chief ally in Iraq. What would the IRGC know that Badr does not? Why bother to send revolutionary guardsmen when the country is thick with Badr fighters anyway (who have all the same training)? I think the US is just embarrassed because Badr is its major ally in Iraq, and Pentagon spokesmen are over-compensating by imagining Iranian training camps inside Iraq. What an idea. I mean, don't we have, like, satellites that would see them? Wouldn't they be visible on google earth? Every day the Pentagon b.s. about Iran gets more fantastic and frantic. Methinks some people, like Patton, are upset that the politicians always pull them back and leave them one more war to fight.

The Baltimore Sun reports that the US military will draw back down the extra 30,000 troops inserted into Iraq from the escalation called 'the surge' beginning in March, 2008. Presumably Bush will attempt to influence the fall, 2008 presidential campaign by attempting to make it appear that Iraq is going well enough to allow such a draw-down. The article also addresses the Pentagon's war of words against Iran.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that moves are afoot to create a dissident alternative to the 4-party alliance (Da'wa, Supreme Council, & the 2 Kurdistan parties).

Reuters reports that:


' * BAGHDAD - Ten people were killed and 42 wounded by four mortar rounds which fell in a residential area of Shi'ite al-Obeidi district in eastern Baghdad, police said. '


McClatchy reports that police found 14 bodies in the streets of Baghdad on Sunday, victims of sectarian death squads. Other significant incidents not quoted above:

' Around 9 a.m. Several mortar shells slammed into the Green Zone.

- Around 11 a.m. A parked motorcycle bomb in Al Khulafaa square killed one civilian. . .

- Around 1:30 p.m. Gunmen stopped a bus in Bab Al Muatham area. The gunmen took 15 passengers to Al Azza area in Al Fadhil.

- Around 2 p.m. A road side bomb not far away from Mishin compound. 1 civilian was killed and 5 were injured. . .

Kirkuk . . . Two IEDs targeted police vehicles in Kirkuk. The first explosion targeted a police vehicle; police responded and sent more police vehicles to the site. Another bomb went off. 3 policemen were injured according to police.'


At the group blog, the Taliban in Afghanistan seek to rebrand themselves, and reach out to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization .

Labels:

7 Comments:

At 7:29 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The disaster facing the Brits should serve as a lesson to the 'occuption lite' merchants in Washington.

When you drawdown, the resistance does not give up the fight. They see blood and hit you harder. You also have fewer resources so you suffer more -- unless you reverse the drawdown, which has actually happened several times already.

I find it baffling: people, who think they are good enough to lead the mighty USA, beleiving that the Iraqis will let them occupy Iraq, particularly after demolishing the hyperpower barrier and suffering so much: why should they???

 
At 9:26 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mr. Cole, sorry, but the reason they are blaming Iran is that the White House need other war.

You know, the republicans fear lose the next pres election. So, they need a war starting next year. A fast victory and the american public will vote republican, they believe.

The problem is that maybe this time there is no fast victory. And certainly not an easy ocupation, like you saw in Iraq. The real nightmare will be Iran's occupation...

João Carlos

Sorry the bad english, my native language is portuguese

 
At 9:51 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

American military thinkers and officials predict dire consequences if the British leave Basra. Scenarios are flying: the ugly-and-embarrassing scenario, the cut-and-run scenario, the chase-us-out-of-town scenario, the bloodbath scenario, the follow-us-home-scenario, the stink-hanging-about-the-British-Military scenario. Holy Crap! The only one I don't hear much about is the British-leave-and-nothing-much-changes scenario.

 
At 10:55 AM, Blogger hfiend said...

"Sept. 15 report on Iraq by Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker"

they're speaking with congress but the report will be from the White House.

 
At 4:53 PM, Blogger Christiane said...

Isn't that unfair : the Britts have been the most thrustfull US ally during the Iraq invasion and occupation. They were the only one to invade Iraq with the Americans and since unlike the US, they have signed all the Geneva Conventions and additional protocols, plus the ICC, they risk to be brought to trial for this illegal action. They are leading the biggest contingent of troops in Iraq, they have followed Bush's folly for more than four years, without failing.. and now that they dare say they have to withdraw, or their army will break, instead of thanks, they are only collecting sarcasm from the various US commentators. All US allies should know it : apparently they won't get any gratitude for what they did on the part of the Americans.

The US is trying to find all kind of scapegoats for their own failure : the Turks who didn't allow a northern entry, the Brittish who are running away to early, the Iraqis who aren't ready for democracy etc. etc..

 
At 3:06 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The British military commander on the ground in Basrah has reminded everyone that, at the outset, they went along with the American insistence that the local security forces be disbanded. (Just as the US sacked the Iraqi army and Baathist civil service in Baghdad.) That, more than any other factor, he went on to say, precipitated the present dire situation.

Now the British military assessment is that we can't do anything to make things better in Basrah and, discretion being the better part of valour, it is time for British forces to leave and be redeployed in Afghanistan (which is considered to be "winnable"). The British people will support the military because there is nothing clever about being killed in a lost cause.

And, yes, we have all noted the treachery with which the US treats its main ally the minute we start to show some independence of mind and judgement. Britain does not spend obscene amounts of GDP on its defence - we think diplomacy works better than pre-emptive bombing - whereas the US does and has done every year since WWII.

 
At 6:53 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The truth about the Brits in Basrah is that Bush wants us down there to quell the riots when the idiot attacks Iran. From a comment on a Guardian op-ed piece by Matthew Yglesias, "Don't know much about history", 22 August 2007, on President Bush's we-haven't-killed-enough-Iraqis-yet speech.

 

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