Cole interview of Ali Allawi in Chronicle
My interview with Ali Allawi, author of The Occupation of Iraq: Winning the War, Losing the Peace is temporarily available at the Chronicle of Higher Education at this special site for non-subscribers.
Excerpt:
' Cole: Is the Iraqi government as it is now constituted really viable? Can it be expected to assert itself any time soon, given that it is internally deeply divided and has a weak, inexperienced, and often reluctant military and a police force wracked with corruption and absenteeism? Is there any chance that an international peacekeeping and reconstruction force could help shore it up in a way that the U.S. has not been able to?
Allawi: The Iraqi government relies on its continuity in power on deals made by its principal components, the Shia United Iraqi Alliance, the Kurdistan Front, the secular Iraqiya list [associated with the former interim prime minister, Ayad Allawi], and the Sunni Tawafuq bloc, which were brokered by the U.S. Embassy. So far this uneasy coalition, misleadingly called the "national unity" government, has remained mostly intact despite defections from the UIA and some rumblings inside the Tawafuq. A great deal depends on the position of the U.S., which has huge influence on the Kurds, the Sunni-led groups inside the governing coalition, and elements of the UIA.
So far the U.S. has continued to support the Maliki government, even though it is extremely uncomfortable generally about Shia Islamists in power. The risks of jettisoning the Maliki government at this stage are simply too high. That might change, however, and political rivals to Maliki are hovering around trying to fashion a new governing parliamentary majority if the security situation is not stabilized or more defections from the UIA take place. In spite of all the risks ahead, I believe the Maliki government will continue in power as a weak and divided government simply because of the absence of a credible alternative from within the current parliamentary majority. '
Read the whole thing .
Allawi put forward a peace plan for Iraq last winter.
Allawi served as minister of Trade and of defense in the appointed government of the Interim Governing Council 2003-2004.
Labels: Iraq
posted by Juan Cole @ 5/22/2007 12:25:00 AM
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1 Comments:
Allawi does not fully say, but implies, that neighboring states would supply security forces mainly to protect Sunnis, suppress Kurds, and contain or deter Shiites. If so, it is hard to imagine the Shiite parties ever allowing such "guest" protectors.
He does not address whether the central Shiite state is likely to share much oil revenue with recalcitrant Sunni provinces. This is probably the only "candy" that would facilitate a reproachment. But might it be cheaper for the Shiites to spend the money on their own army and let the Triangle fester indefinitely?
Another scenario: the US withdraws in 2009, the Shiite Iraqi army starts to clean remaining Sunnis from Baghdad, neighboring Sunnis states threaten to intervene, and nuclear Iran tells them "No way." Could this lead to another mega crisis? Might the future US administration, even if elected to end the current war, find itself drawn into another?
Allawi seems to be a fairly independent fellow. But, in order to provide accuracy, is it true he is first cousin to the other Allawi and nephew to Ahmed Chalabi? In his book, Allawi endeavors to present both the good and blemished sides of the former exile community, but he is a bit lenient in dismissing the Petra Bank collapse as a mere political dispute. As a banker, Allawi was knowledgeable about the affair. Without taking sides, he might at least have furnished a few more details about the substence of the Jordanian accusations and Chalabi's supposed written rebuttal (no footnote or documentary citations!).
In any case, Allawi is one of the few bi-cultural people to have written anything of worth about the war and occupation. It is remarkably free of propaganda, ax grinding, or empty anecdotes. Unfortunately, neither does it prescribe a neat formula for a pleasant end.
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