Chart of Enemy Attacks in Iraq
Here is a chart of guerrilla attacks in Iraq since 2003 through April 2007. It is from a GAO document on Iraq, "GAO-07-677 Iraq Electricity and Oil," p. 34. The original is in .pdf format here. I think it says it all. Note that all the activity related to the "surge" seems to have gotten the mayhem nearly back down to what it was in . . . July 2006, that veritable paradise of communal harmony.
See below for Tuesday's blog postings.
Labels: Iraq
posted by Juan Cole @ 5/22/2007 12:35:00 AM
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Also puts paid the notion that the violence in Iraq is mostly sectarian, directed against civilian targets.
Like Bush said somewhere last month (heard on npr): it's not about peace, it's about finding a level of violence that everyone's comfortable with.
The report also exposes as Orwellian fantasy the assertions made by war supporters (like the dingy Kay Bailey Hutchison and the first lady--not so dingy) that the media aren't reporting the "good news" from Iraq.
"THAT'S BECAUSE THERE ISN'T ANY!!"
Interesting that a moderate decrease in number of anti-coalition attacks has accompanied an increase in numbers of coalition soldiers killed in action. Does this indicate a moderate increase in the lethality of anti-coalition attacks or that coalition forces are using larger unit maneuvers presenting larger targets?
Another thing that jumps out at me are the attacks on coalition forces are huge! Silly me, but that looks to be the biggest part of the problem.
a telling graphic yet a misleading metric : "attacks" here are those recorded events in which consequences were observed...
...in truth, "the number of attacks" upon Occupation Forces, Allied Iraqis, and Civilians (including 'crime') that were foiled or otherwise fended off would no doubt be some huge log amplification of this already tragic graphic.
iow, to look at this chart = underlying metric we cannot conclude either: (1) the number of total attack events that are now or have been occurring; or, (2) the real level of violent activity attempted; and, (3) the success or failure of Occupation, Allied Iraqi or Civilian Defense efforts, thus.
Wartime metrics are fascinating. During WWII, operations research academics counted and noted the position of every bullet / flak hole in every allied aircraft returning from some bombing mission / sortie over The Continent. Upon seeing these metrics, the AngloAmerican Officer Corps said, "We should immediately endeavour to armour all these bullet hole clusters, thus!"
But the academics said, "No. We should immediately armour-up all those places where there are bullet holes not ~ because those are the aircraft that did not make it back home."
Mccutchen: Also puts paid the notion that the violence in Iraq is mostly sectarian, directed against civilian targets.
Does it, though? I'm guessing most people here think that the Lancet/Johns Hopkins survey, or something like it, gives an accurate figure for the number of deaths in Iraq. The lead author of that survey, Prof. Roberts, said here that the majority of those deaths are probably Iraqis killing other Iraqis. Which makes 325,000+ Iraqis killed by Iraqis, as of last October. 3,500 Americans have been killed by the insurgents. So what's going on here? Most attacks are on the Coalition, but they manage to kill 100 times as many Iraqis?
There is another possible explanation, by the way; and that is that the US army figures, on which the GAO report is based, are not a complete record of all attacks in Iraq. Earlier Pentagon reports have said so themselves. They record attacks which their soldiers witness, and those are likely to be disproportionately those in which they themselves are targeted.
I note also a seasonal element in the data: Low in Feb-Mar rising through the fall.
Does not bode well.
If someone charts May 2007 data then the Insurgents/Terrorists win.
/sarcasm
Lopakhin queries whether attacks on Iraqis are much more deadly than attacks on US forces.
I think the answer is yes. Maybe not by a power of 100, but just from the news, it certainly appears that attacks on civilians are at least a power of 10 more deadly.
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