Shiite protests Roil Iraq
Tuesday was an apocalyptic day in Iraq. I am not normally exactly sanguine about the situation there. But the atmospherics are very, very bad, in a way that most Western observers will miss.
The day started out with a protest by ten thousand people in the Shiite holy city of Karbala, against the Danish caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad. These days, Shiites are weeping, mourning and flagellating in commemoration of the martyrdom of the Prophet's grandson, Imam Husayn. So it is an emotional time in the ritual calendar. when feelings can easily be whipped up about issues like insults to the Prophet. An anti-Danish demonstration in Karbala is a surrogate for anti-American and anti-occupation sentiment. The US won't be able to stay in Iraq withiut increasing trouble of this sort.
Then guerrillas set off a huge bomb in a Shiite corner of the mostly Sunni Arab Dura quarter of Baghdad, killing 22 and wounding 28. Another 9 were killed in other violence around Iraq. These attacks are manifestations of an unconventional civil war.
Then real disaster struck. The guerriillas blew up the domed Askariyah shrine in Samarra. The shrine, sacred to Shiiites, honors 3 Imams or holy descendants of the Prophet. They are Ali al-Hadi, Hasan al-Askari, and his disappeared son Muhammad al-Mahdi. Thousands of Shiiites demonnstrated in Samarra and in East Baghdad, against this desecration.
The Twelfh Imam or Mahdi is believed by Shiites to have disappeared into a supernatural realm (just as Christians believe in the ascension of Christ) from which he will someday return.
Some Shiites think his second coming is imminent. Muqtada all-Sadr and his followers are among them. They are livid about this attack on the shrine of the Mahdi's father.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is also a firm believer in the imminent coming of the Mahdi. I worry that Iranian anger will boil over as a result of this bombing of a Shiite millenarian symbol.
Both Sunnis and Americans will be blamed. Very bad
posted by Juan Cole @ 2/22/2006 12:38:00 AM
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11 Comments:
That's absolutely horrible news :-( Wiki entry on Al Askari Mosque is updated, I added the link to this comment - as an early expert warning of the consequences (hopefully, there is no misrepresentation).
More later.
Word is that it was an inside job (though this may just be CYA on the part of the cops).
From http://news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=274442006:
Following the blast, US and Iraqi forces surrounded the shrine and began searching houses in the area. Five police officers responsible for protecting the mosque were taken into custody, said Col. Bashar Abdelallh, chief of police commandoes in Samarra.
The destruction of the Shia shrine is perhaps akin to the destruction of the Christian holy sepulchre by in 1009 by Islam's "Nero," Fatimid Al Hakim. Some historians cite this as one of the cause of the crusades. Hopefully, it will not lead to a comparable Shia jihad against Sunnis or "infidel occupiers."
You may be right that the Western media may poorly report the latest tragedy. Consequently, it will be very helpful if you can fill some gaps.
Absurd conspiracy theories will about who did the bombing. However, given that sectarian violence has been a risk now for several years, it is difficult to fathom how the Shia authorities would have left the mosque any less protected than Fort Knox. Would not all pilgrims be subject to screening on par with airport standards or better?
Was security at the mosque slack? Exacly how could anyone sneek in at night and plant bombs? Did all the guards call in sick?
Since the Shia already control the government, doesn't this make it a bit difficult for them to blame the state for poor security at the mosque? Did the US ever hinder the ability of clerical or government authorities to protect religious sites?
Would any Sunni group, no matter how fanatical, claim credit for this act? Yes, a crazed individual might do just about anything. But this looks as though it must have been a group action.
Perhaps a Sunni - Shia summit will be able to defuse tensions, rebuild the mosque, and put a list of top sacred sites under joint sectarian protection. It will be an important test to see how much of the Sunni world extends condolences, respects, or perhaps even reconstruction money. US kafir money to rebuild the shrine itself may not be suitable, but kind words and help for the community may be in order.
Now with the attack of the "Golder Mosque" in Samarra, things will get worse. I can only imagine such an attack as the equivalent of some evagelist targeting Notre Dame or other important Catholic cathedral.
To those that claim that the U.S. is winning or can win in Iraq I ask, if this is the look of victory, I hate to see the look of defeat.
I think its safe to say that Iraq is now either on the verge, or process of a civil war. The following numbers concerning the rise of insurgent acts is very telling:
2004
Total attacks: 26,496
Improvised bombs: 5,607
Car bombings: 420
Suicide car bombings: 133
Suicide bombers wearing explosive vests: 7
2005
Total attacks: 34,131
Improvised bombs: 10,593
Car bombings: 873
Suicide car bombings: 411
Suicide bombers wearing explosive vests: 67
I wonder, how long before the public consciousness begins to connect the dots? Fundamentalists supported because they're so wonderfully anti-communist. Fundamentalists promoted because they're an easy vote. Fundamentalists gain power. Not a pretty sight--on any continent.
Totalitarians, political, religious, even free market economic, are the pits.
Indeed, the return of the Mahdi is an aspect of the fundamentalist version of Islam practiced by Iran's new president. The prophesied return of the Hidden Imam in Shiite Islam is akin to the Apocalypse and return of the Messiah foretold in Revelations to Christians. Both involved End-Of-The-World final battles between forces of Good and Evil. On one hand, you have the Iranian president's Apocalyptic language arrayed against George Bush's rabid threats. Now violence at this shrine wrapped into cartoon-gate. Dangerous times.
A confounding story yesterday said that the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Khalilzad, claims that Iran is giving support to the Iraq insurgents. This makes no sense, as the insurgents are largely Sunnis, while Iranians are largely Shia.
More smoke being blown up our behinds by the neo-con/PNAC crowd?
I think some people may be mistaken if they're waiting for some obvious sign that a civil war has begun. Maybe this constant wearying campaign of senseless murder and destruction is the civil war? Maybe this is how it will be fought, just a constant spiral that leads the country further and further down the drain.
It seems that Zarqawi would probably be among the first of suspects. Or at least should probably be among... It might be possible that this was Bin Laden's plan. But it is probably difficult to direct anger at a hidden terrorist. People will be angry and strike out at those they can.
The task of our stabilizing Iraq has just gotten incredibly more complicated.
Also, what is meant by an "inside job"? Was this shrine open to visitors? Was it a mosque where people gathered to pray facing in the general direction of the Ka'Baa(sp?), or was it a mausaleum(sp?)/crypt? Any ideas as to how much explosives would have been required?
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