Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Saturday, August 22, 2009

Obama's Fate as much in the Balance as Afghan Presidential Candidates

The Financial Times argues that the final judgment on how upright the Afghan elections were matters enormously to the Obama administration. If the US public decides these election results were phonied up, it will turn, FT argues, even more against the war than it already is (51 percent oppose the Afghanistan war in the US).

I don't think the US public cares so much about these elections. I think support for the Afghanistan war depends on the administration effectively tying it to concerns about Americans' safety and security. And since that argument is so hard to make convincingly, I can't see how public support for the war is going to come back. With dozens of US troops killed in July, moreover, people are hearing more bad news than good.

What I think is true is that a poorly executed Afghanistan policy could turn Obama into a one-term president. It is too early to judge exactly what Obama's policy will be in Afghanistan, but it should become clear within a few months. So far, Obama has not made the case and hasn't explained what the end game is.

CNN International's Atia Abawi reports from Kabul on the election process. She says the electoral commission says it won't have preliminary results until August 25. She also suggests based on personal observation that voter turnout was lighter than announced, and that ballot-stuffing took place last Thursday.



Aljazeera English interviews Afghan presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah on the election process. He says he thinks the process went well despite a relatively low turnout, and says he won in areas where the votes have been counted. His rival Hamed Karzai also claims to have won.



France24 English service on drug money corruption high in the Afghan government:




End/ (Not Continued)

6 Comments:

At 3:33 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The view of The Financial Times is clouded by the recent British justification for the operations in Helmud. They have been flogging the line that it is to ensure a fair election. The turnout there has been in single digit, so people are baffled by the high UK casualties to get just that.

The US Establishment is playing for time, as usual. Gate recently said that results must be shown within a year or the public will reject it, presumably to win support from Obama when he said it. But that is being stretched and extended until Obama himself bought the Long War lunacy.

 
At 6:52 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nothing in Afghanistan is honest. Why would these elections be the exception to the rule ???

 
At 12:12 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I wonder whether the Afghan build-up is partly an attempt to keep US troops near Iran's borders as we reduce forces in Iraq. I'd be very surprised to see the US remove its firepower from the region with Iran posing a nuclear threat.

 
At 2:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"It is too early to judge exactly what Obama's policy will be in Afghanistan"

He's already announced a troop increase and commitment to occupation for upwards of several years. He is already expanding the war beyond the levels it was at during the Bush years. Why are you ommittting this?

"but it should become clear within a few months. So far, Obama has not made the case and hasn't explained what the end game is."

"The UK's commitment to Afghanistan could last for up to 40 years, the incoming head of the Army has said."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/8191018.stm

"Defeating the Taliban and al-Qaida will take "a few years," Defense Secretary Robert Gates said,"

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32413461/

"The increased troop levels are expected to last three to four years, the military official said."

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/02/17/obama.troops/index.html

 
At 10:12 PM, Blogger Michael Murry said...

When the generals and politicians start calling a war "long" instead of "over," you can tell that everyone involved has lost.

 
At 12:37 PM, Blogger empireofdirt77@gmail.com said...

Dear Professor Cole:

Please give your views of Robert Fisk's analysis of Afghan history and the current war: "I doubt if anyone in Afghanistan voted yesterday because of the policies of their favourite candidate. They voted for whoever their ethnic leaders told them to vote for. Hence Karzai asked Dostum to deliver him the Uzbek vote. Abdullah Abdullah relies on the Tajik vote, Karzai on the Pashtuns...

... But our problem in Afghanistan goes further than this. We still think we can offer Afghans the fruits of our all-so-perfect Western society. We still believe in the Age of Enlightenment and that all we have to do is fiddle with Afghan laws and leave behind us a democratic, gender-equal, human rights-filled society...

...[I]f you walk into a remote village in, say, Nangarhar province, you can no more persuade its tribal elders of the benefits of women's education than you could persuade Henry VIII of the benefits of parliamentary democracy...In the meantime, Nato soldiers go on dying for the pitiful illusion that we can clean the place up. We can't. We are not going to."

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-democracy-will-not-bring-freedom-1775229.html

 

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