Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Friday, July 31, 2009

Regime Cracks down Again in Tehran;
But Hard Liners Question Brutal Tactics

The political opposition in Iran held commemorations in Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz, Ahvaz and Rasht for the deaths of protesters at the hands of security forces on June 20, especially for Neda Agha-Soltan, a young woman whose last moments on videotape became a heartbreaking sensation throughout the world. In Shiite Islam, mourning sessions are conducted for the deceased after 40 days as well as at other times. The technique of building larger and larger crowds locally helps the movement expand and avoid losing momentum.

Reports say that hundreds (some even say thousands) showed up at Tehran's main seminary to mourn Neda and the others. Mir Hossein Mousavi and his wife Zahra Rahnavard attempted to visit the grave, but were turned away by security forces.

Hundreds also gathered at the Musalla Mosque in downtown Tehran, but were dispersed by security forces with tear gas and life ammunition. Clashes continued into the night.

Aljazeera English has video, including amateur video, of the cemetery protest:



More amateur video of Thursday's cemetery protests is here:



Even the hard liners have been disturbed by the ferocity of the crackdown on protesters.

Member of Parliament Hosain Ibrahimi announced Thursday that of the 300 protesters he said the regime had in custody, 140 had been released and all but a handful of the rest would be let go in the next few weeks. The regime has said that it will try about 20 of the protesters.

Although Ibrahimi was underestimating the number of prisoners of conscience being held, that such officials feel a need to make conciliatory announcements of this sort suggests that the scale of the arrests is an issue for centrists and even some hard liners, not just for reformers.

Today's (Friday's) edition of Jumhuri-yi Islami (Islamic Republic) carried an article criticizing the deaths in prison of some protesters who had been arrested. The article goes [courtesy the USG Open Source Center], "For some time now there has been a series of reports in informal media on the deaths of detainees from recent events (protests following the June presidential elections), which have prompted extensive concerns in society and especially among the families of detained people. Of course relevant officials have generally remained silent in response to these reports and news in some media and official reactions have been restricted to particular cases like the deaths of Mohsen Ruholamini and Sohrab E'rabi. . . At that time when the soldiers of Islam captured a member of the enemy military, though they knew that moments before he had pointed his gun at them, they dealt with their prisoner with kindness and mercy. They gave him food and water and bound his wounds, and these were treated humanely in prisoners' camps. This humane and Islamic treatment led many prisoners to change in their time of captivity and some later joined Iran's army (or the Sepah/revolutionary guards), fought on the front and were even martyred. . .If officials were saying until yesterday that rioters armed with weapons presented by America and Israel had killed people, there is no sign of these armed and dependent people in prison now, and the detained are being guarded by agents. One cannot link any threats to their lives to foreign powers. The most logical issue it seems then is that certain agents have either improperly carried out their legal duties in guarding the detained, or have gone to extremes above the law in the way they have treated them, and brought about this situation. In this sense those responsible are undoubtedly liable to prosecution as no law permits this violent treatment or killing of individuals before any charges are proven and a definitive sentence issued."

The call for the punishment of security men who abused prisoners to death, on the part of a hard line newspaper, is remarkable. The condemnation of extra-judicial punishment is likewise not what you would expect from a Khomeinist organ (but that is what this newspaper is). But note that one of the protesters alleged to have been killed in prison was the son of a prominent campaign activist for the hard line former head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, Mohsen Reza'i, one of the presidential condidates who initially, at least, protested the way the June 12 presidential election was conducted. When you off the children of prominent hard line politicians in jail, it does not go unnoticed.

Three prisoners, including the two mentioned by Jumhuri-yi Islami above, were said to have died in Kahrizak prison. These deaths were loudly condemned by reform leader Mir Hossein Mousavi. As a result, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei closed Kahrizak earlier this week, presumably to deprive the reformists of a symbol of the regime's murderousness and to remove a blot on the escutcheon of the Islamic Republic.

In a way, these killings of prisoners is functioning like the shooting of Kent State protesters by National Guardsmen in 1970 in the US, which helped turn a lot of fence-sitters against the Vietnam War. In this case, the harshness of the methods deployed by the hard liners is becoming repulsive even to other hard linters. Remember that they view themselves as highly ethical and as acting in accordance with islamic norms, and these deaths challenge their own self-image.

Likewise, the hard line Mashhad journal, Khorasan from Thursday, July 30, 2009, quoted Iran's national police chief Brig. General Esmail Ahmadi-Moqaddam as saying [courtesy USG OSC], "Some commanders went to excess during some of those events, and while pursuing the rioters they inflicted some losses on the people." Ahmadi-Moqaddam continued: "My concern is that nobody should act beyond the limits of the law." He added: "As the result of the orders that have been issued, some steps have been taken to respond to people's complaints and to win their hearts."

That quote suggests to me that Iranian law enforcement is perceiving a lot of hostility from the public over the crackdown on protesters, and its high officials are therefore attempting to reduce tensions. A regime only has to worry about winning people's hearts if it has lost them.

Meanwhile, reformist former president Mohammad Khatami denounced the steps taken by the hard liners with regard to abuse of protesters and of prisoners as insufficient, demanding genuine accountability rather than euphemisms. When Khamenei closed the Kahrizak prison, he said it was because the facilities were inadequate. Khatami replied Thursday, ""it is not enough to say that a sub-standard detention center has been shut down. What does 'sub-standard' mean? . . . Does it mean that a ventilation fan was faulty or its washrooms were not clean? Lives have been lost and our dear youth, women and men have been subjected to certain treatments. . . On the issue of detainees... Of course, they must be released, but that is not enough."

Khatami also called for a parliamentary investigation of the June 12 presidential election.

In short, the reformers are coming as close as you can to a direct public condemnation of Khamenei as you can come in Iran and remain out of jail.

Demanding accountability for crimes already committed and threatening a parliamentary investigation also may forestall further crimes (something that the US Democratic Party does not seem to realize with regard to the crimes of of the W. Bush officials).

The reformist daily Aftab-i Yazd on Thursday carried an impassioned denunciation of the election fraud and the crackdown on protests [courtesy of USG OSC]:

'It is difficult to remain silent or speak out in the current situation. We cannot remain silent because the future on which Iran's and Islam's capital have been spent is in danger. It is also impossible to speak freely because some people are inclined to label every critic as a spy, connected (to enemies), or non-believer. . .

The events that took place after the 22 Khordad (12 June) election were bitter and painful for any Iranian nationalist who is loyal to the God's law. . . This initial sadness did not prolong for a long time. The country and people witnessed events that resulted in increasing the anxiety of some families and bloodshed of others. . . this situation gave rise to advice and protests from reformist leaders. Some well-known principle-ists also criticized these incidents and their criticisms showed that their views are different with the government faction of principle-ists. They protested about the lack of attention to the demands of protesters. . .

Today, nobody can call the killing of a youth (Mohsen Ruholamini) during the unrest as a scenario created by foreigners and increase the problems of the dead person's family by their ignorance. This is because the person who was killed in the recent events is a person from their own faction.

Over the past few weeks, they urged the protesters to pursue their protests through legal means. This would be a wise suggestion and would result in maximum achievements in fewer expenses, if the officials were completely loyal to the laws. Are they loyal to the law? If yes, then why do they not allow the protesters to use their rights to protest according to the Article 27 of the constitution? Why do they deal with the protestors in this manner? The well-known principle-ists figures have also protested about their conduct.'


The point made here, that the lawless conduct of the regime undermines its authority, is crucial. That a writer could make it in print in today's Iran is nothing short of incredible. But it seems to me as though either there will be an even more Draconian press crackdown soon, or the regime will have to seek some sort of compromise.

End/ (Not Continued)

13 Comments:

At 4:21 AM, Blogger Naj said...

My two penny:

They will stage a televised confession, prosecuting those who were responsible for Rouholamini's death; and MAKE them confess that they were on foreign payroll and did this to discredit the IRI!!!

When these people come and in front of camera claim that they are "in touch" with the messiah, you cannot put any other lie past them!

 
At 4:21 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The most likely compromise is the resignation of Ahmadi-Najad. The ground is being prepared already by the ruling Mullahs. He has been demoted from Divine Choice to an insubordinate (to the Supreme Leader) deluded man who appoints and sacks top officials on a whim

 
At 5:49 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"In a way, these killings of prisoners is functioning like the shooting of Kent State protesters by National Guardsmen in 1970 in the US, which helped turn a lot of fence-sitters against the Vietnam War"
- bear in mind please that the Kent State killings - by signalling the US government's willingness to use whatever harsh tactics were necesssary to repress dissent amongst white middle class college students, tactics that had previously only been deployed against the poor & racial minorities - also meant the beginning of the end for the late-1960s radical anti-war & student movements. Middle class students in the US were effectively frightened off from mass movement politics and a counter-culture that emphasized dropping-out & back-to-the-land emerged in its place

 
At 10:49 AM, Anonymous Tony said...

President Obama's reticence is looking more prudent by the day, no?

 
At 12:14 PM, Blogger MonsieurGonzo said...

[OFF TOPIC: Afghanistan] ref : “Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, who took charge of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan last month, appears inclined to request an increase in American troops to implement the new strategy = same as the old strategy; ie., Clear, Hold and Build. The problems with his strategy were recently made plain: (1) When he tries to "clear", the enemy just vanishes; (2) When they then try to "hold", their Foward Operating Bases become besieged ~ a small force of insurgents can essentially keep an FOB in defensive posture with very little effort; and (3) Without NATO security, NGO's cannot build roads, bridges and infrastructures ~ worse, the back -and- forth artillery duels and airstrikes tend to rubble-ize the area's villages, scatter the peoples' herds, and burn down their crops. iow, since the General's strategy [e.g., Helmand] just failed spectacularly, we should put more troops in his trenches for the next time he wants to Go Over The Top. As Winston Churchill said of General Mark Clark, after landing in Anzio : “We hoped to land a wildcat that would tear out the bowels of the Boche. Instead we have stranded a vast whale with its tail flopping about in the water!

 
At 1:26 PM, Blogger Anand said...

Monsieur Gonzo, you forget the ANA and ANP. They are doing a lot of the fighting in Afghanistan; although they need to be rapidly expanded in size and capability. Gen McChrystal wants more trainers for the ANA and ANP.

I would suggest super embedding one ISAF division headquarters into the ANA Army operational command; 1 ISAF advisory bde into each of the 5 ANA Corps and the 111th Kabul capital division (6 total.) Then transfer battle space, responsibility, PRTs, and economic development over the the ANA and their advisers.

Similarly, I think that an ISAF division HQs should be super embedded into the MoI operational HQs; several more ISAF brigades should be super embedded into the ANCOP and provincial ANP. Helmand ANP in particular should get one ISAF advisory bde. Gradually transfer battlespace, economic development and ISAF PRTs over to the ANP and its advisors from the ANA.

All of this will require many more trainers and advisers.

In the long run, advisory brigades can be replaced with advisory battalions as the ANSF improve in quality.

 
At 3:37 PM, Blogger MonsieurGonzo said...

You liken McChrystal to (Civil War General) George B. McClellan? : “McClellan's leadership skills during battles were questioned by U.S. President Abraham Lincoln, who eventually removed him from command, first as general-in-chief, then from the Army of the Potomac. Lincoln was famously quoted as saying, "If General McClellan does not want to use the army, I would like to borrow it for a time." personally, Anand ~ i don't like using our finest assault troops as "trainers" and "advisers" : damn waste of fine infantry.

 
At 1:10 AM, Blogger MonsieurGonzo said...

Anand : “General McChrystal wants more trainers for the ANA and ANP. Yes, he does, Anand; LondonTimes : “The aim would be to take the Afghan National Army from a size of 134,000 to about 240,000. The police force would be increased from about 92,000 to about 160,000. But Afghan police have long been identified as one of the weakest links in the security chain and highly prone to corruption — and officials from several NATO countries have questioned how such a vast increase could be paid for, given Afghanistan’s inability to fund even the existing force. The General's new strategy foresees a major shift in American and NATO troops' operational “culture”, forcing them into closer contact with locals in a bid to identify and befriend local power brokers and win them over to the [central] government side. I must confess, Anand, that my first impulse was to simply respond that using our finest assault troops as "trainers" and "advisers" was, imho a damn waste of fine infantry. But upon further reflection I thought that both you and the General's "new strategy" deserved a more reasoned response.

I have no doubt that we could pay = recruit, train and advise Afghan people how to kill and incarcerate other Afghan people; as well we should be able to successfully pay some number of them to not kill or capture American/NATO forces and western NGO personnel. otoh, I am unsure as to what strategic purpose this would achieve, other than to transform the General's troops from active combat to passive-aggressive defense against booby-traps, sniper-assasins, and (conspiratorial) suicide attacks (pre-emptive action against non-conspiratorial = spontaneous suicide attacks being an impossible task without eliminating all Civil Liberties). Other than the reduction of NATO/American Occupation Forces' KIA + WIA headline metrics, I do not understand how the General's "new strategy" furthers the West's desire to extend the power of the Federal government in Kabul, other than by some odorous mechanism of ethnic cleansing, which, fwiw though tried before, has never been successfully achieved by any other Occupying Power in the history of ‘Afghanistan’.

General McChrystal is not delusional; he can clearly see the advantages that the indigenous fighters in this region enjoy : “They... understand the terrain, the climate [of the battle-space], they know the local leaders and clan elders... and we do not. In that regard, Anan — I believe the West and their General might be better served if we could convince the Afghan people to train and advise our NATO/American forces, rather than the other way around ;-)

 
At 1:39 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Abolhassan Bani-Sadr writes for Huffington Post. This is the first President of the Islamic Republic. Most insightful.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/abolhassan-banisadr/iran-at-the-crossroads-of_b_248980.html

 
At 2:59 PM, Blogger Anand said...

MonsieurGonzo, try to see the world through Afghan eyes.

In the Feb, 2009, public opinion poll, 91% of Afghans had a negative view of the Taliban. 92% had a negative view of Osama Bin Laden. 91% had a negative view of Pakistan.

In the June, 2009, poll, 87% had a favorable view of the ANA; which is far more popular among Afghans than anything else.

In the June, 2009, poll, 10% of Afghans saw themselves as Pashtu first, Afghans second. This is the Taliban base that the ANA is fighting. I think that it is deeply unfair to accuse the ANA, ANP and ISAF of ethnic cleansing.

Here is a central problem that needs to be discussed:
-GIRoA annual revenue = $600 million
-this is much less than the Afghan education budget alone
-total steady state expenditures are about $6 billion a year
-GIRoA controls civilian ministries and ANA and ANP that they don't pay for. Causes lack of accountability
-Foreigners who pay for Afghan ministries cannot exercise oversight of them because it violates Afghan sovereignty.

What is the plan to boost GIRoA revenue over the long run; or to slash GIRoA spending (including the education budget)?

Monsieur Gonzo, who do you think will win the next Afghan election? I think that provincial and district elections are more important than national elections.

 
At 2:43 PM, Blogger MonsieurGonzo said...

Anand, ref : “Pashtun ethnic agenda at heart of Afghan war: Pashtuns dream of one homeland, play key role in Afghan election and war

 
At 2:50 PM, Blogger MonsieurGonzo said...

[wow. (1) they read all kindsa things into your words that you never intended or implied. (2) once you engage them, they don't really "reason" through a dialogue, they just kinda cling on to ya {grin} Lessons learned, Juan. Thanks for the opportunity "to walk in the blog leader's shoes" for that little kilometer ~ really was quite enlightening. ciao]

 
At 1:23 PM, Blogger Anand said...

MonsieurGonzo, nice article. But the truth is far more complicated than that. I think Pashtus might be 37% of the Afghan population rather than 42%; but no good census exists for Afghanistan.

There are maybe 11 million Afghan Pashtu (maybe 12 million?), compared to 30 million or more on the Pakistani side of the Durand Line. I seriously doubt that most Hazaras, Turkman, Uzbechs and Tajiks, or even many Afghan Pashtu, would be delighted if Afghanistan included all of Pakistan's Pashu areas. Some of it, maybe, they would like that . . . but not all of it.

 

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