Al-Maliki's Goals on his American Visit
What did Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki want from his visit to New York City and Washington, DC?
Al-Zaman [The Times of Baghdad] makes some suggestions in this regard.
First, he wants the United Nations Security Council to remove Iraq altogether from Chapter 7 status under the UN Charter. After the Gulf War, the UNSC put Iraq into a kind of receivership, with sanctions, demands for disarmament with regard to unconventional weapons, and restrictions, in which the UNSC had a say on Iraqi policies. Also, 5% of Iraq's oil income went to pay reparations for the destruction it caused during the war. One of the reasons Iraq did bilateral status of forces agreements with the US and with the UK was that they wanted to avoid having any more UNSC resolutions authorizing foreign troops in Iraq. Iraqi government spokesman Ali Dabbagh, according to Reuters, said that Chapter 7 status "handcuffed Iraq, restricted its sovereignty and burdened it with the crimes of the former regime." On a visit to the UN HQ, al-Maliki said that "Iraq no longer poses a threat to the international community," and so the sanctions "are no longer necessary." (For a formerly colonized country, being under Chapter 7 is way too much like being recolonized, and ending that status is paramount for an Iraqi nationalist like al-Maliki).
In Washington, al-Zaman says, al-Maliki also wants
1. help in developing the Iraqi economy, and
2. he wants a normalization of relations with the US.
Other potential goals are controversial. Reuters reports, '"Maliki will ask the U.S. to increase pressure on the Kurdish government. Finding a solution for this [Kirkuk] issue is vital and cannot be postponed any longer," said Saad al-Hadithi, a political analyst at Baghdad University. '
But the pan-Arab London daily, al-Hayat reports in Arabic that al-Maliki is unlikely to want the US involved in the negotiations with the Kurds over Kirkuk.
The Kurdistan leadership wants to hold a referendum in Kirkuk province over whether it should join the Kurdistan federation within Iraq. But since Arabs and Turkmen are largely opposed to Kirkuk joining Kurdistan, the United Nations is urging that no referendum be held, fearing it could spark the outbreak of a civil war.
For his part, Obama wants al-Maliki to make more progress on national reconciliation with Sunni Arabs and Kurds, so that Iraq settles down and the US can put its money and efforts into Afghanistan. Obama reaffirmed his determination to withdraw US troops.
Al-Maliki seems to have a blind spot in this regard, apparently feeling that the Sunnis and the Kurds can be faced down by his new military without offering any concessions.
Meanwhile, the State Department concludes that Bush's monster embassy in Baghdad is way too big for the reduced American mission in Iraq and will need to be pared down. Duh.
And, the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, protested sharply the killing of 6 Iranian pilgrims and the wounding of over 30 at Khaniqin on Wednesday, saying Iraq needed to supply the Iranians in Iraq with more security.
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hassan Qashqavi implied that the US was somehow to blame for the killing of the pilgrims.
End/ (Not Continued)
posted by Juan Cole @ 7/23/2009 12:22:00 AM
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6 Comments:
I do think the story about downsizing the Baghdad embassy is a classic.
I can remember so many commentators in the last year telling us that the US was not going to withdraw from Iraq, because, how would the US give up its newly built embassy and bases?
The issue of the bases is also another one to come.
I am sure Hayat is right that Maliki does not want the US in the negotiations over Kirkuk.
On the other hand, the Kurds do want the US to be in there.
Maliki has been very successful at dealing with the other Green Zone "leaders". Like the rest of them, he is a trivial man with no principles or other abilities, which is why he succeeds.
But managing a functioning state requires an entirely different set of skills and knowledge, which neither he or any of them has.
Take foriegn investment for example. In their tiny minds, all what they need to do is to get the head of the foriegn state to agree to invest in Iraq, and the companies in that country would be obliged to invest! They have been relentless in asking all foriegn leaders to invest, whenever they get the chance. They think that those companies will not only make the Iraqi economy instantly successful, but would also dole out the "bakshish" to them and their cronies at all levels.
Perhaps Prof Cole should show them around his State of Michigan slums, and enlighten them to the efforts made to attract American compaies, and the success rate.
I agree that Al Maliki thinks he can just use his army to control the Sunnis and the Kurds, but this is a very disturbing stance on his part. I spent a month in Suliemaniya just recently, and I see how isolated the people are from the main Iraqi culture. There is a huge social divide to bridge. Meanwhile, I have been reading up on their history and looks like the same issues are in play as have been for the last 100 years or more.
These are delightful people and I don't want to see them hurt. It isn't only a matter of who wants who on their side. Al Maliki, isn't a particularly subtle or intelligent man. In his reliance on the military, ready to stand against the Barzanis who have their own army, and who have not been all that reasonable in the past, could trip a huge civil war, or a devastating purge with thousands of civilian deaths.
The Kurdish internal political problems cannot be resolved in time to put them on terra firma for the negotiations. They will need help. These people have suffered enough. The Kurds have been betrayed over and over by their Western mentors. There must be a way to bring in the UN or some unbiased NGO to support arbitration that can result in negotiated political settlement.
The US and EU have their own agendas. They cannot be reliable arbiters. But we do bear some responsibility because it is us who has helped to keep the powerful warlords in control there. The Kurds have more democratic initiatives, the Goran list opposing the old guard in their upcoming election for instance, but right now the warlords are lining up to fight for their oil. These are the guys we chose to talk to and to promote. We need to get out, but it will be a bitter tragedy if the Kurds are once again set up as fall guys to some tin pot 'strongman' who we chose originally because everyone was secure that they could manipulate him. And now we are cutting this dullard loose with an army to control a very complicated political situation.
If there is an international community, now is the time to step up and provide support for a reunification of Iraq. We have purposely left the Kurds out of the center of things. I don't believe that there isn't a way to get Al Maliki to accept arbitration on this issue. There are so many things he wants from us and the world right now. You can check out the International Crisis Group report for a useful assessment of this situation.
cannot believe that you wrote this post and never, not once, mentioned that little three letter word O I L.
All About Pipelineistan
A nuclear Iran would inevitably turbo-charge the new, emerging multipolar world. Iran and Russia are de facto showing to both China and India that it is not wise to rely on US might subjugating the bulk of oil in the Arab Middle East. All these players are very much aware that Iraq remains occupied, and that Washington's obsession remains the privatization of Iraq's enormous oil wealth.
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