Cole in Salon: Obama's Domino Theory
My column in Salon.com is out, "Obama's domino theory," in which I worry that "The president sounds like he's channeling Cheney or McCain -- or a Cold War hawk afraid of international communism -- when he talks about the war in Afghanistan."
Excerpt:
'[Obama's] latter-day domino theory of al-Qaida takeovers in South Asia is just as implausible as its earlier iteration in Southeast Asia (ask Thailand or the Philippines). Most of the allegations are not true or are vastly exaggerated. There are very few al-Qaida fighters based in Afghanistan proper. What is being called the "Taliban" is mostly not Taliban at all (in the sense of seminary graduates loyal to Mullah Omar). The groups being branded "Taliban" only have substantial influence in 8 to 10 percent of Afghanistan, and only 4 percent of Afghans say they support them. Some 58 percent of Afghans say that a return of the Taliban is the biggest threat to their country, but almost no one expects it to happen. Moreover, with regard to Pakistan, there is no danger of militants based in the remote Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) taking over that country or "killing" it. '
Read the whole thing.
End/ (Not Continued)
posted by Juan Cole @ 3/30/2009 12:05:00 AM
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7 Comments:
Obama's rethorics do oversimplify a complex situation, FATA is indeed a small spot, and Talibans do represent a small faction in Pakistan.
Yet. The Taliban problem is not only fundamentalist issue in the country, and Pakistan remains the weakest link, a priority for all hatemongers.
The country is already on the verge of collapsing economically and the beyond the tiny minority of hardcore extremists, big chunks of the population could be tempted to lose their apetite for democracy. It could only take a few sparks (ie something really bad happens to Iftikhar Chaudhry).
Who to believe on the popularity of the Taliban ?
BBC reporter John Simpson seemed to find widespread support for the return of the Taliban in Kabul and corresponding opposition to the corrupt Afghan government and presence of foreign troops.
If Obama means what he says, you're right, it makes no sense. The best hope is that he doesn't mean it, but is rather using it to prepare a politically palatable exit strategy: since there isn't much Al-Qaeda left anymore, if you declare war on it, you can declare victory in a year and go home. Esp. if Allah be praised you found Osama bin Laden's bones or something.
Good article; brief and to the point. The ad hominem in lieu of reason letters it attracted at Salon, from M-I Complex stakeholders and right wingers, tend to confirm that your unflattering assessment is right on the money.
I cannot make out from the Salon article whether JC supposes the President to be talking nonsense that he does not believe himself or to have sincerely fallen for "a dark vision of the overthrow of the Afghanistan government" by a conspiracy of dominoes. Please advise.
Happy days.
Bin Laden's original complaints included our stationing troops on holy ground and generally messing around in Muslim countries. By remaining in Afghanistan, we just poke one more stick in the eye of Islam.
the old Domino Theory myth was one of the many covers fighting independent nationalism in South East Asia. Nothing to do with the Soviets mind you.
So is that what reason behind whats going on here?
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