Kyrgyzstan Expels US, Endangering Afghanistan Logistics for US Troops:
Major Victory for Putin
In a major blow for the US and NATO military effort in Afghanistan, the parliament of Kyrgyzstan voted Thursday formally to end US use of Manas Air Force base to resupply troops in nearby Afghanistan. With the effective closure of the Khyber Pass route into Afghanistan from Pakistan, this step endangers the logistics supply line to the US and NATO troops. The move comes in part as a result of Russian aid to Kyrgyzstan. Russia and the Shanghai Cooperation Council have long been concerned about the expansion of US military and political influence into Central Asia.
Aljazeera English has video:
With the Pakistani route under severe pressure and the closing of the Manas base to the US,t is hard to see how the 17,000 new US troops to be sent to Afghanist can be provisioned (see above)
The UN has announced that the 2008 poppy crop in Afghanistan was the second biggest on record. Poppies are used to make heroin and 40 percent of the profits appear to go to warlords, fueling narco-terrorism.
Polling done by the Canadian military in Qandahar province, in Afghanistan's troubled southeast, shows that confidence in the government of president Hamid Karzai has plummeted over the past year to 25 percent from 55 percent.
As many as 20 percent of the people in Qandahar, who are western Pushtuns, say they favor Taliban rule. (This statistic, of 15-20 percent support for Taliban, is higher than in past soundings; the Taliban were widely despised in Afghanistan).
The decline in Karzai's popularity is also visible in this interview at Aljazeera English with former cabinet minister Dr. Anwar Ahady.
Many Afghans are anxious that the US will escalate violence in the Pushtun regions through aerial bombardment of suspected Taliban targets (a tactic that sometimes kills innocent villagers):
McClatchy says that the arrival of US troops in Wardak, 40 mi. from the capital of Kabul has raised anxieties with the local population.
End/ (Not Continued)
posted by Juan Cole @ 2/20/2009 12:49:00 AM
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11 Comments:
Say what one will about the bidding war over Manas, the worst outcome is slipping back into bed with Islam Karimov, one of the world's nastiest butchers. His Interior goons threatend an acquaintance of mine, a fellow journalist, ith an injection of what they said was HIV. Since the guy was gay, they said, everyone would assume he was infected in another way. They put the "lies" in allies.
Correction:
aerial bombardment of suspected Taliban targets (a tactic that (sometimes) ALWAYS kills innocent villagers)
Predator drones are new to the battlefield, but they fly very slowly, and some bright spark is going to come up with a very simple answer to them.
What then?
Regarding the huge poppy industry in Afganistan, can it be legitimized into morphine production, eg.?
"A small but vocal opposition group believes the government has out to Moscow in return for financial aid"
As opposed to selling out to the Americans in return for money from the National Endowment for Democracy et al and the economic benefits of having a military base there?
The NY TImes is spinning the IAEA's latest report on Iran - again - by claiming that Iran had "under reported" its uranium.
See IranAffairs.com
The move comes in part as a result of Russian aid to Kyrgyzstan. Russia and the Shanghai Cooperation Council have long been concerned about the expansion of US military and political influence into Central Asia.
Be that with Obama or without, the US has nothing to do in Asia and she should just get out of Aghanistan; she has nothing to do in Irak as well and she should pay due compensation for an illegal invasion and just get out.
Friday, February 20, 2009
Kyrgyzstan Expels US, Endangering Afghanistan Logistics for US Troops:
Major Victory for Putin.
Exactly; and the first of many in my opinion. The Bushites opened a Pandora's Box labeled "Vladimir" with their contemptuous, and contemptibly half-baked, Georgia debacle last year.
The media attributes Kyrgyzstan's behavior to "Russian meddling," the implication being that Kyrgyzstan is a mindless puppet and the victim of Russian puppeteering. But that isn't necessarily the only explanation. Maybe Kyrgyzstan's leaders are capable of understanding that they have an independent bargaining position here and a way to advance their own interests.
Could it be, From the Kyrgyzstan's point of view, that it fortuitously finds itself between two more or less great powers, each bidding against the other for something it has? Could the recent eviction vote be part of an astute negotiating position? If so, who can blame them? We do the same thing all the time.
The Russians, on the other hand, are in a can't-lose situation. If this is a bidding war, they probably can't win outright, but they can win somewhat by raising the cost of empire to the US. Because of their recent experience, Russians may have a finer appreciation for the burden of empire than Americans, especially when it comes to Afghanistan.
The US, on the other hand is in a game where, even it it wins, it loses. It is hard to see where Afghanistan/Pakistan will ever be anything but a drain on the productive energy of the US. The concept of "victory" isn't even discussed, much less planned. Afghanistan has no way to return an economic benefit to the US. Further, Americans find the concept of a long, costly, winless war to be unnatural and perverse. It demoralizes them and they tend to spank the political party that lets it go on. Democrats might wish to ponder the fate of the late, once-great Lyndon Johnson.
The US spends more on interdiction of the poppy fields than the actual drug is worth. We could have paid more for the harvest than the drug lords were getting and we would control 90% of the world's opium.
I don't think we SHOULD be doing that, or even interdiction, but the point is that our Empire has entered the lunatic stage.
OT - any comment on Joel Kovel's recent ouster from Bard?
Pay the poppy farmers the going rate for their crop and then destroy it on the spot. Win a few hearts and minds with this tactic. Stop antagonizing the locals by trying to eradicate production while wasting every dime spent on chasing it all around the world.
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