Iraq: Kurdish-Arab War in the Offing?
McClatchy is alarmed at the rapid deterioration of relations between Kurds and Arabs in the north of Iraq. The victory of the Sunni Arab nationalist party, al-Hadba', in Ninevah Province has dealt a setback to the Kurds, who initially controlled the province's governing council and whose paramilitary, the Peshmerga, was deployed in parts of the province with Kurdish populations. The Kurdistan Regional Government has already erased the provincial divisions among Dohuk, Irbil and Sulaymaniya, and would like to absorb much of Ninevah Province, as well. The Green Line separating Kurdish territory from Arab is being redrawn and challenged, to the benefit of the Kurds.
Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, a centralizer, has come into conflict with the Kurds over his desire to restore an effective central government.
Some of the alarmism on this issue derives from Iraqi-Kurdistan Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani, who says that Obama should intervene to settle outstanding Kurdish/ Arab disputes before the US troops draw down.
The Open Source Center of the USG translated the article:
' Kurdish Officials Warn of Kurd-Arab War if Kirkuk Problem Not Resolved
Report from Baghdad by Rahmah al-Salim: "Deputies Close To Government: 'Irbil Warnings of Arab-Kurdish War Increase Tension;' Kurdish Official to Al-Sharq al-Awsat: 'Nechirvan Barzani's Statements Reflect Real Fears;' American Army: 'We Will Not Side With Anyone"'
Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online
Wednesday, February 18, 2009 . . .
' An Iraqi MP close to Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki says that statements made by Nechirvan Barzani, Kurdistan Region prime minister, about a war breaking out between Arabs and Kurds after the American withdrawal from Iraq, are "a disservice to the political situation in the country."
Sami al-Askari, an MP for the Unified Iraqi Coalition, stresses that "the recent statements made by the Kurds do not serve the political situation in Iraq," and points out to Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online that "Surely there are problems between the central government and the Kurdistan Region government; these differences cannot be solved in this way but through dialogue and commitment to the Constitution."
In this context, Barzani had voiced concern over an American withdrawal from Iraq before a settlement of litigious issues between Baghdad and Irbil, mainly the problem of Kirkuk. He also urged the US to put pressure on the Iraqi Government for a final solution concerning Kirkuk, and complained about the refusal of the Americans to intervene directly in this question.
Furthermore, Kamal Kirkuki, Kurdistan Region Parliament Deputy Speaker, has described Al-Maliki as a "dangerous man", and said that the Kurds are trying to stand up to him, adding: "Al-Maliki is a danger to Iraq and to democracy; he is a second Saddam."'
If the Kurdish-Arab hostity rises futher,the US could be drawn right back in to Iraq. The Eastern Mediterranean and the meeting-point of Syria, Turkey, Iran and Iraq, is too important to allow it to fall into substantial and long-term violence.
Meanwhile, several parliamentary factions may be conniving at a vote of no confidence and a toppling of the Iraq government of PM Nuri al-Maliki. His centralizing tendencies, for which the Kurds ahdve denounced him, are at issue.
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Unrelated reading: See the recent comments of Howard Eissenstat and Manan Ahmed at Informed Comment: Global Affairs on Turkey-Israel and on Pakistan.
End/ (Not Continued)
posted by Juan Cole @ 2/19/2009 01:05:00 AM
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9 Comments:
not to be flippant, but hasn't a Kurd-Arab war been in the offing since 2003?
Or Kurd-Turk war? Or (from N to S) Turk-Kurd-Arab war?
As disappointing as this would be, this was precisely the sort of situation that scholars of the region (say,like, I don't know, Juan Cole) were predicting could come about?
I saw on MSNBC the other morning the tagline: "Afghanistan: Obama's War".
If they can do that to Afghanistan, I wonder what the media will make of a conflict between Kurdistan (which totally doesn't exist, really!) and Iraq and (god help us) Turkey.
Kurdish expansion and militarism has relied on American occupation and now they are facing the music.
The threat of war is meant to get Obama to maintain the occupation to avoid the supposed war!
Kurdish grandstanding has not been limited to Iraq though. Barazani has issued threat against Turkey, Iran, and Syria too. So, although the Iraqi military has been starved, by the US, of heavy weapons and independent logistics, the Iraqi government can rely on the forces of those countries, who would like nothing more than annihilating the Kurdish militia in an open conventional warfare, in a matter of days if not hours.
There was a great deal of empathy towards the Kurdish people in the rest of Iraq before the invasion. But their bizarre arrogance and fascist behavior has turned the Iraqis against them.
The problem is not limited to territory. The Kurdish officials in Baghdad do not have a shred of loyalty to the Iraqi state, and must be isolated for the country to function. Initially, a grand anti-Kurdish coalition will defeat them in Parliament and remove their officials and militias from Baghdad. But the final solution, barring the toppling the Kurdish warlords by their own people, is either the full independence of Kurdistan, or a symbolic confideration between two economically and politiacally separate states.
Always knew, and mentioned occasionally, that there would come a time in the near future when Baghdad would clash with the Kurds, and opined that the US would use this conflict as the reason to remain in Iraq. The US forces must leave as they are the reason for the potential conflict in the first place. Somehow, the Arab and Kurdish Iraqis must find a way to coexist; the region is their home, not ours. And the USA is certainly the wrong choice as a teacher of civility.
Recently, the Kurds have demanded Baghdad's intervention/protection from the "incursions" by Turkey. For that to occur, Iraq must have a stronger central government than the Kurds desire. At some point, hopefully soon, the Kurds will realize that it's in their best interest to build a strong Iraq and to put a lot of effort into doing so they will be recognized as fellow Iraqis, not just Kurds.
Responsible comment on Nineveh Province is critical at this point when the KRG is putting considerable pressure on Washington to re-ignite political instability in Iraq to draw out the timeframe for US military withdrawal. Loss of control in Mosul was predictable in fairer elections than those that brought the minority Kurdish population to power in 2005.
When referring to Nineveh province with pockets of large "Kurdish populations" readers should remain aware that many of these "Kurds" are really Christians belonging to indigenous eastern churches often recognized as ethnically Assyrian. The process of disenfranchising these hundreds of thousands of Assyrians located in a string of some 30 villages and small towns east of Mosul itself in 2005 took place under KDP supervision, as acknowledged by US military personnel. As a prelude to the latest provincial election, these Christians again were targeted (13 killed in Mosul most believe by Kurds) leading to 20,000 fleeing the city.
The KDP succeeded in intimidating many to vote for its slate (by withholding employment and ration cards among the more benign tactics). But the KDP spent so much effort on controlling the Assyrians that for the first time, the independent Yezidi slate won a seat in the provincial government.
So much for claiming the Yezidis as docile Kurds.
The lesson in the Mosul area elections is that the area is mixed ethnically with the Kurds a distinct minority in places like Tel Afar, TelKeif and many other places that have suffered since 2003 under a Kurdish yoke backed by a US military presence too beholden to the Peshmerga to protest. With the US withdrawal the Peshmerga will have to look, ironically, to Turkey to mend fences and gain support.
Eden Naby
The final results for Nineveh are out. The Arab nationalists won 19 seats out of 37, so they do not need a coalition.
After the prelimnary results, which gave Hadba 48.4%, the Kurds insisted that their share will rise and that Hadba must agree to pro-Peshmerga conditions to get the Kurds on board. Now, they are completely out in the cold.
This situation will most likely be replicated in the general election. The Khalilzad system of "muhasasa" excludes the Winner Takes All in favor of proportional representation, but it is not enshrined in the constitution or any Iraqi law. But the Kurds carry on regardless and assume that the President will always be a Kurd and that they are entitled to a sixth of the ministries,and so on. They are in for a whole series of shocks.
McClatchey reports that Arab-Kurd "violence could happen". Ya think?
Gotta like that permissive tense. Kurd 'president for life' Barzani blocked provincial elections in his provinces. Four years after the last vote, some competition might have been healthy. If it was really a democracy up there.
As I read the map, Barzani wants to straighten/expand his border from S. of Kirkuik to the river S. of Mosul.
Israel is a player in arming Barzani, as is Iran and Turkey. A war for Eretz Kurdistan destabilizes 3 or 4 of Israel's future enemies, Iraq being one. That project has to balance against the prospect of bringing increasingly islamic Turkey online against Israel.
Here's some really fascinating background on the historically deep Kurd-Israel relationship, which becomes pretty specifically a Barzani-Likud relationsip in the last 25 years. Israel was the KDP's chief supplier of arms, and the Mossad set up the KDP intel service.
The Kurd connection was a big part of the twisted intel that sold the US on a 2003 invasion of Iraq.
Wag that dog.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurdish-Israeli_relations
That should fix the Wunderkinds plans to pull out of Iraq in 16 months. Quo Bono?
The prime minister Nechirvan Barzani was right to warn Americans about the real threat of war between Arabs and Kurds as long as the Kurds are repeatedly sidelined by the Al-Maliki.
The Iraqi PM's arrogance is reaching to the point of getting out of touch with reallity and not appreciating the long history of kurdish war with previous Iraqi tyrant goverments.Of which Saddam was the most brutal and used the campaign of genocide against Kurds informs of chemical weapons and the infamous Anfal campaign.Yet the Kurds are still here and even stronger than ever.
The only difference of the upcoming war is the Al-malki's hope to make it a Kurdish-Arab war rather than an Iraqi goverment against kurds.The kurds are well aware of the danger of this transformation,however whatever the price of the war to kurds it will not be the disabandonce of Kirkuk and other disputed areas.This is mainly because Kurds have not made consessions to previous Iraqi regiemes on that issue in almost 50 years.
For all the Arab facist who can not waite for this day to happen and use the Israel-kurds realtionship as a fuel to the war they are forgetting the fact that when kurds were facing genocide by Arabs they were alone and will face the new war on their own once more.
The Al-Malki and his alike should wake up to the reallity of the new Iraq and solve the dispute through the current Iraqi constitution or face the consequences of major Arab-Kurds war.
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