Iran Nuclear Program Hyped again
Note to mainstream media:
Iran cannot construct nuclear bombs with uranium enriched only to less than 4%. It needs to be enriched to something like 90% to make a bomb. Iran is not known even to have that capability, and no it cannot be done in 2 months (try a decade), assuming they were trying to do it, which our $40 bn. a year intelligence agencies say they are not. So all the silly articles on Friday about how iran now has enough enriched uranium to make a bomb are just illiterate. Moreover, the report in question actually says that Iran is slowing its enrichment activities.
h/t Jay McDonough.
Now that the Likud is back in control of Israel, flanked by even less savory far-right forces, we will unfortunately be bombarded by inflammatory propaganda about how dangerous Iran is. Iran hasn't aggressively invaded another country in at least a century and a half. In contrast, the Likud never met a war of aggression they did not like.
End/ (Not Continued)
posted by Juan Cole @ 2/21/2009 01:02:00 AM
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11 Comments:
Yup Iran is trying to defend the NPT and the security council, representing the interests of the weaponised states, is steadily trashing it. Israel (and Pakistan and India) are of course entirely outside of it with weapons and being rewarded for it.
The hypocrisy, deceit and bad faith is truly a wonder to behold.
The N.I.E. said last year that Iran could
not build a bomb for @ least 3 to 5
years with what they have now.
This is a planed story ..... oh oh
be scared Iran is out to get you.
Professor Cole - both you and Gary Sick are taking this line:
"Iran hasn't aggressively invaded another country in at least a century and a half. "
This is utter nonsense. Yes, Persian armies have not crossed their border but let's be honest. From Hizballah in Lebanon to Hamas in Gaza, Iranian behavior has been abysmal. Their record of international behavior includes murder, kidnapping, torture and suicide bombings from Argentina to Khobar Towers. Their domestic record is just as bad or not worse than the Shah's.
And I'm not even Jewish or Likud.
Juan,
Correct, as usual. It is estimated that Iran would need 2 months at a minimum to re-process and further enrich all of this.
It would be a process that would be, in the view of one expert, "highly observable." And even then, there is much, much more to do before a nuclear bomb could be readied.
Add to that another dose of reality: Even if Iran were to construct a bomb, it would not be deliverable by missile warhead. Instead, it would have to be deployed using a truck or large aircraft.
That's little comfort and would seem to indicate that if Iran ejects the U-N inspectors (which it most certainly would in case it wanted to take the enrichment steps,) the rest of the world would have about 2 months to push further sanctions and debate the military option that would certainly be on the table at that point.
This was rarely reported.
Thanks for pointing it out.
Right on, Juan!
I'll be looking forward to your next piece on why we keep funding the covert overthrow of Iran.
Will Obama have the intestinal fortitude to tell Netanyahu:
1.) No, you may not fly your warplanes through Iraqi airspace.
2.) If you attack Iran using some route that circumvents Iraq you can still expect zero support from the United States. That includes no intelligence information and no resupply. The United States has already conveyed a message to the Iranians: If Iran is attacked by the Israelis the United States will stay out of it completely so long as Iran does not retaliate against American assets.
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I am just as nervous about a regime that wants to have nuclear material as one that wants to have a bomb. Same difference. In fact, material is a little more dangerous because it can be spread a lot further with a whole lot more ease than a bomb.
But the real question I would like to suggest, If Iran did not arrest women for walking outside without the right clothing on, I do not believe the international sanctions or rhetoric would be so great.
Allow your women to be free, and we, the international community, will allow nuclear power in Shiraz.
How about that deal?
The untrustworthy media, and other promoters of the "Iran is only months from building an atomic bomb" canard seem blissfully ignorant of the fact that weapons grade HEU (Hightly Enriched Uranium) is collected one atom at a time.
There are no short-cuts and the output of each pass through the centrifuges requires further reprocessing because centrifuges are very inefficient - as anyone curious enough to check for themselves will discover.
If Iran wanted The Bomb it would be cheaper and a great deal quicker to buy one. Iran's only motivation for doing so would seem to be US-backed Israel's increasingly strident, threatening and irrational lies.
Anonymous wrote: "Allow your women to be free, and we, the international community, will allow nuclear power in Shiraz. How about that deal?"
How about this deal?
Saudi Arabia! Allow your women to be free and we the "international community" will... umm... continue buying oil from you and selling advanced weapons to you and guaranteeing the security of your totalitarian religious regime.
US hypocrisy is breathtaking.
"Allow your women to be free, and we, the international community, will allow nuclear power in Shiraz."
Yes, "YOU the international community" has liberated women of Afghanistan (and Iraq), now it is time for new such "libreation"?
WHO told you that you are the master of the world, and have you asked Iranian women whether they want to be liberated such way?
Why not take Iran's statements at face value and acknowledge that they have a right to peaceful use of nuclear power? If they are lying and try to develop a nuclear weapon they will have to test it before using it against Israel. The test itself is a proof of their intentions. All the international powers have to do is to say, "OK we accept your peaceful nuclear power development but if you ever test a nuclear weapon we will take that as an international act of agression and bomb you with nuclear weapons. Likewise if you ever attempt to launch any weapons strike against Israel or any other nation we will assume this is nuclear and respond accordingly.
If they are genuine then they can develop a peaceful nuclear power industry without interference.
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