Bush and Rant on Red Sea Piracy
Piracy by Somali pirates in the Red Sea region threatens to reduce world trade through the Suez Canal by about a third, and could raise petroleum prices again if the smaller oil tankers have to go around the Cape of Good Hope to Europe.
Wouldn't it be in part the duty of President Bush and the US Navy to make sure there is security on the high seas?
I haven't seen that Bush ever did anything about the problem.
But he didn't hesitate to send two aircraft carriers at once into the Persian Gulf, just to tweak the Iranians.
Bush was like some yahoo on Dukes of Hazzard-- he was always up for a hotrod street race, but he did not care anything about actually supplying security to anyone. His posturing, threats, and actually invasions have just left the legacy of a lawless world, and Red Sea piracy is only one manifestation of it.
posted by Juan Cole @ 11/23/2008 01:15:00 AM
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The US has ceded influence in Africa to other nations, while preoccupied with its Iraqi Misadventure. French, Indian, Russian and other warships are patrolling these waters now.
The election of Barack Obama is seen by many powerplayers as a means of regaining a footing in Africa, trying to counteract the advantages the Chinese have built while Bush and Cheney were building bases in Iraq and diverting essential resources there.
Bush is an absolute moron, and one really has to question the logic of a democratic process that willfully subjects itself to this level of ineptitude - without long ago having ejected such an incompetent from office.
In hindsight, Cheney's similar failings will also be evident. In his case one of having a brilliant mind, but of deciding to use it to try to restore the rule of Louis 14th in the USA - again without being checked by the legislature, the Supreme Court or the public.
As someone said, the Bush Library will have entire rooms dedicated to disasters - and the overall theme will be the total dismantling of US hegemony in a short eight years.
Pirates? Bring 'em on!
"W"
The Indian Navy has managed to take down a pirate boat but the chaps in Diego Garcia are enjoying the Azur sky and the beach :-(
Guess it boosts the adrenalin to go and toy with the enemy in the straits of Hormuz.
What may be more to the point is that we have a navy equipped with aircraft carriers, which are useful for such purposes as intimidating Iran but not particularly useful for purposes of patrolling against Somali pirates.
The United States military is so poorly adapted to the actual security challenges of today's world that it is increasingly difficult to talk seriously of a genuinely effective defense policy, on the one hand, and supporting Department of Defense expenditures.
Instead, American military policy must be understood as a bailout for Defense contractors, whom - unlike General Motors - we have for some reason of internal domestic politics chosen to subsidize.
He still has almost two whole months to turn things around.
For once Bush is not stepping in unilaterally to be the policeman of the world and you are critical of him. In case you haven't noticed, there have been no reports of American ships or American sailors in all of this mess. Maybe you also haven't noticed that there is no immediate danger to people's lives involved. Maybe it is because the US navy in the area is protecting US interests and allowing the world organization UN, NATO etc. to be on the vanguard of addressing this problem. Maybe Bush is using this crisis to get these other players (India, Saudi Arabia, etc.) to become more involved in world policing.
I am no Bush supporter, I never voted for him and I think the bum should go to jail for his abuse of power. However, in this case, I give him credit for playing the cards carefully and perhaps strategically.
You might want to check. I believe that supertankers are too big for the Suez Canal. As I recall, there are plans to upgrade the canal. I believe that smaller tankers bound for Europe use it though. (And I think that the recently seized supertanker actually was headed around the Cape of Good Hope, not through the Red Sea).
But Bush did apparently support an Invasion of Somalia by Ethiopia and doesn't mind using CIA assets to to take out the Islamic Courts --- all of which further destabilizes Somalia. So now we have Somalian pirates preying on ships in the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean; Did Bush expect the Somalians to starve quietly?
We should also bear in mind that the pirates operating from Somalia have observed a code of behavior far different from the pirate bands preying in the South China Sea who regularly murder sailors and scuttle ships. The Somalis, by contrast, have not harmed any sailors nor any cargo, and they enforce a sort of ethical code prohibiting inflicting such harm. Given that these marauders used to be local fishermen until their fishing grounds were depleted and their livelihoods destroyed by illegally operating European and Asian mechanized fishing fleets, and given further that they live in an utterly failed state providing no other economic alternatives, it would be unwise to take a purely military approach to dealing with them, for doing so would surely cause them to resort to desperate and far more brutal tactics. Such a cure would be worse than the disease.
Until AEI considers it necessary this President won't/can't act. It is so amazing that the people who tried to sell us that Bush would be surrounded by smart people (how would he know?) are trying to pass on the same garbage about Palin.
When "Bloody Bill" Kristol and his fellow travelers decides, then you can be sure that there will be warship aplenty.
Dr. Cole, with all due respect, this is a terrible insult to the Dukes of Hazard!
"Problem Reaction Solution"
The piracy is being purposely allowed to run rampant so the international community becomes desperate that they allow international law to be altered in a way that favors neo-imperialism.
Watch and see what happens. :)
~Drew An Zhu Ahmad Marshall
Yes the super tankers cannot go through the Suez. The Sirius Star was captured 450 miles SE of Kenya (WAY south of the usual piracy lanes)
~D A Z A Marshall
I've been a bit pre-occupied of late, but I don't think I've heard US security policy & strategy for Somalia/Ethiopia/Kenya and the Suez-Gulf sea lanes publicly articulated. It's not surprising if warships from a dozen countries in Task Force 150 are not entirely effective against pirates, as they watch each other watch each other.
One scary big story in terms of Somalian Pirates has to do with rumors, not facts, hostages and and tonnage. There is a widely repeated rumor that an Iranian ship, set up to be a radiological dirty bomb against Israel, was captured and held (the poisons killing many pirates), and the ship released this Autumn. The story now has ship, cargo and crew impounded and secretly held by the US Navy.
Google "Iran, +death ship" and you'll open a window into a parallel universe that believes WMD attack on nuclear armed Israel was "long expected', that a radioactive-dirty ship-bomb can just be slipped thru the Suez, and that proof of Iranian perfidy is now being covered up by Team Bush and the "MSM", in a plot of global betrayal against the embattled jewish state. The 'proof' is in the 'fact' that you can only read about this on the internet.
Did I mention that the rumored dirty was to be done with an Iran flagged/owned vessel, with a majority of the crew from Iran? As Bosun Gibbs says in 'Pirates of the Caribbean': "Reason's got nothin to do with it."
Rumors of threats have lead to real wars. Our 'closest ally' Israel is a past master of 'pre-emptive war.' Call me paranoid, but the Boston Tea Party is one of our foundation myths. A 'Gulf of Tonkin' initiator doesn't have to be convincing to be effective and horribly costly.
I won't feel safe until Bush-Cheney are retired to Texas.
Professor Cole, NO ONE could have said it better. BRAVO !!!!
Pirates armed with only RPGs and assault rifles don't require a US destroyer to fend them off. Closing the Suez Canal will cost Egypt much more than providing some kind of protection. And the Gulf oil exporters will also pay more than the cost of protection. They could escort convoys, put troops on board, or have aircraft patrolling the area that could steer ships away from pirates.
Somali Pirates in Discussions to Acquire Citigroup
November 20 (Bloomberg) -- The Somali pirates, renegade Somalis known for hijacking ships for ransom in the Gulf of Aden, are negotiating a purchase of Citigroup.
The pirates would buy Citigroup with new debt and their existing cash stockpiles, earned most recently from hijacking numerous ships,including most recently a $200 million Saudi Arabian oil tanker. The Somali pirates are offering up to $0.10 per share for Citigroup, pirate spokesman Sugule Ali said earlier today. The negotiations have entered the final stage, Ali said. ``You may not like our price, but we are not in the business of paying for things. Be happy we are in the mood to offer the shareholders anything at all," said Ali.
The pirates will finance part of the purchase by selling new Pirate Ransom Backed Securities. The PRBS's are backed by the cash flows from future ransom payments from hijackings in the Gulf of Aden. Moody's and
S&P have already issued their top investment grade ratings for the PRBS's.
Head pirate, Ubu Kalid Shandu, said "we need a bank so that we have a place to keep all of our ransom money. Thankfully, the dislocations in the capital markets have allowed us to purchase Citigroup at an attractive valuation and to take advantage of TARP capital to grow the business even faster."
Shandu added, "We don't call ourselves pirates. We are coast guards and this will just allow us to guard our coasts better."
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While the Suez poses a potential chokepoint to the flow of oil,
and that old codger from VT is right about it being too narrow for VLCC's and ULCC's,
(from http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints/Suez.html)
"The 200-mile long Sumed Pipeline, or Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline, also provides a route between the Red and Mediterranean Seas by crossing the northern region of Egypt from the Ain Sukhna to the Sidi Kerir Terminal. The pipeline provides an alternative to the Suez Canal, and can transport 3.1 million bbl/d of crude oil. In 2006, nearly all of Saudi Arabia’s northbound shipments (approximately 2.3 million bbl/d of crude) were transported through the Sumed pipeline."
Of course, some might think that the more significant chokepoint is the Strait of Hormuz,
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints/Hormuz.html
avid student
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Dr. Cole,
I think the explanation for the seemingly counterintuitive denial by the US Navy of responsibility to combat piracy (although required of the federal gov't by Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution) is found in the recent announcement that Blackwater is in negotiations with 13 shipping companies to provide security via a ship (retired oceanograph frigate) that Blackwater purchased and retrofitted to carry attack helicopters and attack boats. As ever, the key question is "cui bono"? Now that it has exploited the Iraq War to its fullest, the mercenaries move on to the next conflict, with the political allies helping to create a market.
But we don't want the American empire using this as an excuse to more heavily police the seas oif the horn of Africa. I'm very glad Bush hasn't got involved. Of course, using the Ethiopian client to drive out the moderate Islamic Courts - which were Somalia's best chance in decades for cross-tribal peace - has returned Somalia to chaos and blood - and piracy. Please don't suggest that the US should use the chaos they 'brought on' as an excuse for further imperialism.
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