Reuters/Zogby Poll: McCain Makes a Move, Takes 5-Point Lead Over Obama
Zogby News Release reprinted by permission at IC:
Released: August 20, 2008
Reuters/Zogby Poll: McCain Makes a Move, Takes 5-Point Lead Over Obama
Obama loses ground among Dems, women, Catholics & even younger voters
UTICA, New York – As Russian tanks rolled into the Republic of Georgia and the presidential candidates met over the weekend in the first joint issues forum of the fall campaign, the latest polling includes drama almost as compelling - Republican John McCain has taken a five-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama in the race for President, the latest Reuters/Zogby telephone survey shows.
McCain leads Obama by a 46% to 41% margin.
And McCain not only enjoys a five-point edge in a two-way race against Obama, but also in a four-way contest including liberal independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, the poll reveals. In the four-way contest, McCain wins 44% support, Obama 39%, Barr 3% and Nader 2%.
This latest Reuters/Zogby poll is a dramatic reversal from the identical survey taken last month – in the July 9-13 Reuters/Zogby survey, Obama led McCain, 47% to 40%. In the four-way race last month, Obama held a 10-point lead over McCain.
The poll shows Obama losing voters to McCain in groups where Obama had bigger leads a month ago, such as Democrats, women and younger voters. Obama also lost ground among Catholics and Southerners.
This table shows Obama’s loss of support between the July and August Reuters/Zogby polls among some significant sub-groups (the margin of error is greater for sub-groups than the sample as a whole).
>McCain’s surge follows a month in which he has aggressively portrayed Obama as an out-of-touch elitist and celebrity not prepared to be President. McCain also continues to accuse Obama of being willing to lose in Iraq in order to win the election. While Obama was on vacation last week, McCain took the spotlight, talking tough about Russia’s military action against the Republic of Georgia.
Pollster John Zogby: “Since Obama returned from his overseas trip, it seems like McCain has thrown all the punches. Clearly, the blows have landed. In recent days, Obama is fighting back, going after McCain on the economy, the issue voters care about most. McCain has changed the dynamic of the race heading into the two conventions. That puts more pressure on Obama to go to Denver and effectively define himself and McCain.”
Here is how voters rated issues most important to them in choosing a President: economy 47%, War in Iraq 12%, energy prices 8%, healthcare 7%, threat of attack on the U.S. 6%, immigration 5% and the environment 4%.
For a detailed methodological statement on this survey, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1328
(8/20/2008)
(8/20/2008)
posted by Juan Cole @ 8/20/2008 04:21:00 PM
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Reuters/Zogby Poll: McCain Makes a Move, Takes 5-Point Lead Over Obama
The Gallup organisation, a crucial member of the media matrix does its part to move the choreographed charade along to Act II.
At this point Obama, supposedly fearful of it all slipping away announces Hillary Clinton to be his VP selection.
I was wondering how the Political Establishment and the Establishment Media were going to align the stars to make this happen but I should have known. It's been right there in the script all along. Ho hum.
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Who can be surprised? The US wants war; the Russians will do, if Islam won't come up to the mark. 100 million dead in the US, no problem. It's a real war, which Islam, in any of its variants, is not.
I am surprised, but there is a lack of being an opposition candidate that is awful. I want a Democratci President, not a soft Republican, and Obama is running as a soft Republican.
Echoing Bush and Rice on Georgia was a typical mistake, and lacks honesty or shows lack of knowledge or decent foreign policy advice.
Also, even though it may seem early, polls by Labor Day have been decisive. The Saddleback sermon by Obama was awful.
Nineteenth Century philosopher and poet, Henri Frédéric Amiel, wrote:
A lively, disinterested, persistent liking for truth is extraordinarily rare. Action and faith enslave thought, both of them in order not to be troubled or inconvenienced by reflection, criticism or doubt.
Unfortunately for mankind (and particularly egregious in America), it seems that action and faith will always appeal to far more voters than a liking for truth.
In the less subtle words of Bill Clinton,
"When people are insecure, they'd rather have somebody who is strong and wrong than someone who's weak and right,"
I think that this explains how a country already soured on the Iraq war in 2004 could vote George Bush back into office and reject John Kerry. My strong suspicion is that four years from now, we'll be looking down at the ruins of a once-great country and wondering, "how could so many people be so stupid as to have voted for Strong and Wrong John McCain?"
America has finally run out the string. We have dumbed ourselves down so dramatically as the rest of the world rushes forward into the 21st century, and cowered for so long from the terrorist bogeymen of 9/11, that we no longer have what it takes to maintain the basic foundations of a democratic society.
Like the British, the Romans, and the rest of history's dead empires, it looks like our own time is coming to an end.
Perhaps the only salient question we Americans who can still reason and are still searching for truth must ask is "what foreign language should we be learning?"
The numbers in this poll look pretty off to me. Obama is only getting 75% of dems and is losing the womens vote? This seems strange to me and i am very skeptical.
The article doesn't mention the most plausible reason for Obama's loss of support amongst the above : his attempt to move towards the Center.
OTOH, he's probably also suffered attrition of attention, but I don't think that would make the core liberal constituencies abandon him to the tune of ~10 % of the total.
Of course, these are just my thoughts. Hopefully, he'll adapt well before November.
You know, the Reuters/Zogby poll is the only one that appears to see McCain with this new large lead. The other ones suggest otherwise.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/
Thoughts?
This is all temporary. Nobody will remember any of this on the other side of the conventions.
Agent Provocateur
The first British government minister to visit Georgia since the Russian invasion made a point of meeting opposition leaders as public discontent over Mikheil Saakashvili’s role in the disaster that has befallen the country began to grow.
Foreign Secretary David Miliband held breakfast with the main opposition leaders lasting more than an hour during a flying visit to Tbilisi over the crisis in a move which is bound to add pressure on the beleaguered Georgian leader.
The meeting follows talks between Western diplomats in Georgia and Mr Saakashvili’s rivals in recent days and is seen by observers as the West opening up channels to those who might wrest power in the future.
Although the governments in the US and Western Europe have made a public showing of backing Mr Saakashvili, there has been increasing questioning of his tactics which had allowed the Russians to score a major strategic victory over Nato. There is also unease at the Georgian leader’s increasingly erratic behaviour in public at press conferences alongside, among others, Condoleezza Rice and Angela Merkel.
Given that the Syrians are in Moscow to talk about air defence systems and antitank missiles and supply of fuel to Bushehr is now to be resumed questions will need to be asked as to how so many US and European diplomatic inititives were wrecked in two weeks.
When all the hullabaloo dies down in a couple of weeks time there will be a reckoning.
Anyone who has encouraged the Georgians (or had a Georgian lobbyist on his staff) will be wriggling quite vigorously and wishing they hadn't been quite so forthright.
Why shouldn't Obama be losing big among young people and others who were enthusiastic about him? He's publicly determined to be a Bush-McCain lite. It seems that the Democrats will never learn that if they make people people choose between Republican Classic and New Republican, then the Democrats will go the way of New Coke.
They really are so worthless. Even when in command of Congress, they're incapable of refusing Bush - polling in the low 30s - on torture, on illegal wire-tapping, on making his minions testify to Congress, on anything.
Look. You can carry a lot of baggage in politics - consider Nixon's "last press conference." But to be both ridiculous and pathetic will make you lose even to McCain in 2008.
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