Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Thursday, August 21, 2008

Baquba Raid Roils Sunni-Shiite Relations;
Al-Maliki to Disband Awakening Councils

The raid by a special forces operation on the governor's HQ in Diyala province is being denounced as a rogue operation by the US military. Sunni figures have recently been targeted, raising suspicions that the Badr Corps paramilitary of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq was cleaning house, and suspected someone in the provincial government of having links to the Sunni Arab guerrilla movement.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that PM Nuri al-Maliki's office is denying that there is any special forces unit reporting directly to the prime minister. Sunni parties, including the Iraqi Islamic Party [Muslim Brotherhood] of Iraqi vice president Tariq al-Hashimi raised suspicions that the raid on the governor's office in Baquba was al-Maliki's direct responsibility. Al-Maliki's spokesman admitted that there was a special unit dedicated to fighting terrorism, but said its line of command was within the regular military. Meanwhile, the ministry of defense insisted that the "Good Omens" military campaign of the Iraqi army against guerrilla groups in Diyala province would continue unabated and had scored successes.

Ibrahim Hasan Bajlan, the head of the Diyala provincial council, said that the raid on the governor's mansion, the killing of his secretary, and the arrest of a council member constituted an infringement against the legal legitimacy of the elected council.

Sam Parker of USIP guest blogs on what he thinks is really going on in Baquba. A conflict between the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (dominant Shiite fundamentalist party) and the Sunni Awakening Councils is part of it, he argues.

Qasim Ata, spokesman for the "Imposition of the Law" campaign in Baghdad, said Wednesday that Muthanna, the younger son of Adnan Dulaimi, a leader of the Sunni fundamentalist Iraqi Accord Front, had been arrested for involvement in murders and the ethnic cleansing of the al-Adl district of central Baghdad (i.e. of expelling Shiites from it).The Iraqi Accord Front said that the arrest threatened ethnic reconciliation efforts. Qasim said that the security forces making the arrest had done so on the basis of intelligence, and had not realized that the arrestee was Dulaimi's son.

McClatchy reports that the al-Maliki government is determined to disband the Sunni Arab Awakening Councils by November, and plans to arrest those who decline to give up their arms. The al-Maliki government views the councils as seedy guerrilla elements that must not be allowed to remained armed and cannot be trusted to join Iraqi security forces. The US created and pays for these Sunni Arab militias, which it used against the Qutbist vigilantes (radical fundamentalists). Some think that Iraq has another civil war in the offing.


The LAT looks at how female suicide bombers are recruited by the fundamentalist radicals.

The FT argues that Iraqi political divisions are preventing the oil industry there from getting back on track.

In contrast, Iraqi officials say that the global oil majors are greedy and are contributing to a humanitarian crisis with their unreasonable demands.

Lebanese PM Fuad Siniora visited Baghdad and got a favorable deal on Iraqi oil.

NYC has to pay $2 mn. for falsely arresting antiwar activists in spring of 2003, though the deal does not provide for any admission of guilt by city officials.

5 Comments:

At 4:44 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maliki has always been against the Awakening, but the reported plan to dissolve the force is suspect.

Maliki handles problems on a daily, even hourly basis. He is incapable of medium or long term planning. He can flip, in the blink of an eye, from pro- to anti- American, Sadrists, Kurds, Arab countries, Sunnis in government, anything in fact except Sistani and Iran.

His anti-Awakening stance seems perfectly reasonable to him, a fact used by the US to stirr up divisions and troubles in Iraq.

Maliki is completely cut-off from reality and only gets the views and information from his close circle. Some are extremely secterian, and these are the closest to him.

He suffers from acute paranoia and sees the whole world conspiring against him. The US support to the "other sect" militia can only be explained as a conspiracy against him, due to his paranoia.

However, it is difficult to see how he can dissolve the Awakening Councils since they get paid by the US and are too powerful to defeat in case of a confrontation. The article is therefore the result of misinformation by the US and its Iraqi puppets rather than good analysis.

 
At 5:34 AM, Blogger eurofrank said...

Dear professor Cole

Wouldnt it be strange if young Mr Bush' Political Epitaph read "The man who lost NATO in Iraq".


He led but the allies didn't follow

 
At 9:19 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Iraq condemns oil majors' "humanitarian" failure
The attack came after Iraq delayed the signing of short-term oil service contracts with oil majors due to disagreements over payment terms and their duration.

This on the heels of China's fee-for-service deal, Iraq to sign $1.2 bln oil service deal with China, as opposed to the psa's that the multinationals, aka US oil companies, expected from Dick and George's Excellent Adventure in Iraq leads me to believe that the "USA", that is the collection of mobsters that runs "our" government, is going to realize a total loss on their Excellent Adventure.

Greenback Surges, Euro Shrivels ends with the sizzle, not the steak :
The Bush administration has yet to demonstrate that it can enforce Dollar Hegemony via military intervention. That is a very big deal indeed. If the dollar isn't backed by Middle East oil, then the $6 trillion stockpile of dollars and dollar-denominated assets that are languishing in foreign central banks and sovereign wealth funds, will continue to dwindle until the dollar's position as "reserve currency" comes to an end.

It is true, however, that it is a race between The War's effecting the dollar's collapse and the dollar's collapse ending The War :

If Bernanke and Paulson continue to pile all of the nation's credit problems (bad paper) on top of the greenback; foreign capital will head for the exits and the dollar will crash. Either way, the dollar's troubles are mounting and something's got to give.

 
At 10:42 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Condy in Baghdad

"Iraq's foreign minister has said Iraq and the US are "very close" to a deal on the future of US forces in Iraq.

Mr Zebari said officials had hoped to conclude the negotiations earlier, but he cited internal political factors for the delay.

"Really, we are very, very close to closing this agreement, and as we said from the beginning, there is no hidden agenda here," he said."

In other words, the negotiations are stalled. They are no further forward than they were.

It is obvious that the questions brought up about the Diyala raid, and the narratives emanating from the US embassy in the Green Zone,destined to weaken Maliki, could have some truth about them.

 
At 11:56 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"The raid by a special forces operation on the governor's HQ in Diyala province is being denounced as a rogue operation by the US military."

From the context, I assume you mean the US military is the source of the denunciation not the perpetrator of the special forces raid.

Wouldn't "...being denounced by the US military as a rogue operation" be clearer?

 

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