Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Clinton Fails to Pull out Big Win;
Brandishes Nukes at Iran;
Israeli Spying on US for Nuclear Secrets

Hillary Clinton's win in Pennsylvania just was not big enough to allow her to hope to win the elected delegate count. She is increasingly using dark and exaggerated rhetoric and 2/3s of Democrats complain that she has gone too negative (less than half say that about Obama). Her exaggerations yesterday extended into the realm of international politics in a most unfortunate way. It seems clear to me that she cannot win the nomination via elected delegates and that she is hoping to win by scaring the super delegates about Obama. This strategy is counterproductive for the Democratic Party and for the country. Clinton needed to win by well into the double digits in Pennsylvania (which is how she began in the polling there months ago) in order to remain credible. 10 points doesn't do it. (One reader pointed out that it seems actually to be 9.2%, not double digits at all). Obama actually won Texas, which will be a headline in June when all the counting is done there (don't ask). It is over. She should stop before more damage is done.

The Israeli spy ring that penetrated the US Pentagon to steal high-tech secrets including nuclear ones was bigger than just Jonathan Pollard. It is an open secret in US security circles that no foreign country spies on the US more intensively than Israel. And, apparently, none has been more successful in actually prying loose top secret documents. Sy Hersh's sources alleged to him that secrets that went to Israel were either in turn picked up by Soviet moles in Israel or were sold on the black market and ended up with the Soviet Union.

The damage that Israeli spying has done to US security is immense, not only because of such leaks but also because of Israeli reverse engineering of US technology and the pirating of it. Further, the nuclearization of the Middle East that the Israelis initiated has the potential to drag us all into Armageddon.

The Israeli Right is always going on about threats to Israel's existence, even though it is the most powerful country in the Middle East. But no one ever brings up its strangulation of the Palestinian nation, its siege of Gaza, its dispossession of the West Bankers. The right makes an imagined future threat the basis for actual victimization of others in the present. America's security is deeply threatened by the ongoing Israeli colonization projects in the Middle East, as should have been clear for some time.

How dangerous the phantasms of the Right really are is underscored by Hillary Clinton's remarks yesterday:


' In an interview with ABC's Good Morning America, Clinton was asked what she would do if Iran attacked Israel with nuclear weapons.

She replied: "In the next 10 years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them. That's a terrible thing to say but those people who run Iran need to understand that, because that perhaps will deter them from doing something that would be reckless, foolish and tragic." '


Clinton has unfortunately fallen into a typical Washington fear-mongering fantasy. Iran does not have a nuclear weapon. As of last fall, US intelligence determined that it was not trying to get a nuclear weapon. There is no realistic likelihood of Iran having a bomb 'in the next ten years.' Israel on the other hand has hundreds of bombs and has threatened to use them.

(
Paul George points out that in an interview
with Keith Olbermann, Clinton actually alleged that if Iran developed nukes it would be the only such state in the Middle East. Actually, Israel was the first and if you count Pakistan as both Middle East and South Asia, it would be the second.)

So the statement seemed incommensurate with the known facts. It was counter-productive because Supreme Jurisprudent Ali Khamenei has denounced nuclear weapons. Khamenei says that nuking civilians is contrary to the Islamic law of war, which only allows warriors to kill other warriors:

' "Their other issue is [their assertion] that Iran seeks [a] nuclear bomb. It is an irrelevant and wrong statement, it is a sheer lie. We do not need a nuclear bomb. We do not have any objectives or aspirations for which we will need to use a nuclear bomb. We consider using nuclear weapons against Islamic rules. We have announced this openly. We think imposing the costs of building and maintaining nuclear weapons on our nation is unnecessary. Building such weapons and their maintenance are costly. By no means we deem it right to impose these costs on the people. We do not need those weapons. Unlike the Americans who want to rule the world with force, we do not claim to control the world and therefore do not need a nuclear bomb. Our nuclear bomb and our explosive powers are our faith, our youth and our people who have been present on the most difficult scenes with utmost power and faith and will continue to do so.'


Khamenei's quaint chivalry in this age of total war stands in contrast to Clinton's chilling contemplation of genocide against 70 million Iranians in retaliation for something they would and could have had no part in deciding. Mutual Assured Destruction is a security underpinning of the contemporary nuclearized world, but it is a diplomatic weapon that works best by allusion.

If you were an Iranian and you heard Clinton talking like this, would it make you more or less interested in acquiring your own nuclear weapon? That is, Clinton's rather bloodthirsty pandering to what she thinks the Israel lobbies want to hear is likely actually to produce the opposite of the desired reaction in Iran itself and is most unwise.

Clinton also does not mention that Israel is already protected by MAD because it has several hundred nuclear warheads (see the beginning of this essay). Senator Clinton is by now just flailing around fantasizing about incinerating children in playgrounds in Isfahan.

Mark 8:36 is relevant here, and I commend it to the good senator: "For what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul?"

44 Comments:

At 5:40 AM, Blogger searp said...

Well, I can believe that Iran wants a nuke, in spite of what Khamenei says.

A better question, really, may be why it is credible that Iran would want a nuke, and have we done anything to enhance that prospect?

I do not understand why we haven't opened discussions with Iran, of which security would be a major component.

 
At 6:22 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great essay mr Cole!

I am going to start submiting yours everytime i can in reddit.com

Like today: http://reddit.com/info/6gstq/comments/

Regards

DougBolivar

 
At 6:29 AM, Blogger massminuteman said...

Sorry, Juan, but you're wading in sheer bullshit on the primary.

I don't love the Hillary Clinton strategy of keeping the 'pro-Israel' Right winglet of the Party close and satisfied via rhetoric, but the arithmetic on keeping it out of her back and expending it in a Sharonesque fashion works.

Team Obama runs on a conceit about the Iraq mess being somehow a historical singleton, not a late outlier of Cold War militarism and alliances and authoritarian regimes. There's a terrible naivité to historical connections and patterns in the Obama platform and commitments, on the Middle East as in domestic affairs. You also have a candidate who has never been willing sacrificed his prospects for a cause- or found one that was worthy of such in his eyes.

I'm a personnel assessor with a pretty good record of recognizing rot, talent, and superficial or delusional groupthink. The Obama team reflects the persistent strengths and flaws of the leader, which are great skill, high selfregard, and effort but inadequate depth of analysis. Teams led in that fashion are in my experience good at negative tasks but only rarely complete difficult positive tasks.

 
At 7:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Professor Cole, there you go again making complete sense and speaking like an educated individual. Is there really room for brilliance, enlightenment, and courage when talking about Israel? For 50 years the world has had ONLY bold-face lies, propaganda, and fear-mongering. Yes, Americans can handle the truth about Israel. We are thirsty for the truth because only the truth will bring peace.

I just finished reading God Is Not Great by Christopher Hitchens. He argues that "God" did not promise them land that belongs to someone else.

 
At 8:04 AM, Blogger Unknown said...

I think there is another way to interpret Clinton's remarks. By committing to putting the region under a nuclear umbrella, she implicitly rejects the idea that a nuclear-armed Iran is an outcome that is such a serious threat to the world that it must be avoided at all cost, including preemptive war.

 
At 8:15 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

America's security is deeply threatened by the ongoing Israeli colonization projects in the Middle East, as should have been clear for some time.

' In an interview with ABC's Good Morning America, Clinton was asked what she would do if Iran attacked Israel with nuclear weapons.

She replied: "In the next 10 years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them. That's a terrible thing to say but those people who run Iran need to understand that, because that perhaps will deter them from doing something that would be reckless, foolish and tragic." '


"Those people"... the phrase that mst readily rises to racist lips.

America's security is deeply threatened by the ongoing Israeli colonization projects in North America, as should have been clear for some time.

 
At 8:56 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

And to the rest of us I recommend Psalm 94:3 ... "How long, O Lord, How Long / Shall the wicked be allowed to gloat?"

 
At 9:26 AM, Blogger Citizen S said...

I don't understand your bias against Hillary Clinton. I have been reading your blog for a long time but this strange vendetta you seem to have against her is taking away all your credibility lately. I'll have to stop turning to this website for the truth on anything if you are getting the presidential primary so dead wrong. Hillary will be the nominee as it becomes more and more clear to people that Obama isn't ready to be president. I'm not even a Democrat and I can see that. She is doing what's she's doing because national politics is a tough game. Obama is already going negative and everyone who bought his "hope" and "change" claims should prepare to be very disillusioned. There are no utopia believers in Washington and that includes Obama. He's even more of a warmonger than Hillary. Attack Pakistan? "I'm Not Anti-War" repeated over and over and over again? He denounces Jimmy Carter but wants to talk to Iran?

 
At 9:35 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You are so right-- we in Texas know that Obama won here, and it is infuriating to see the corporate media repeating the lie that Clinton carried our state's primary.

 
At 9:52 AM, Blogger Jeff Crook said...

Dear Professor,

I have long admired and appreciated your informed comment, but I do hope you steer clear of any further attempts at mind reading.

Your comment, "Senator Clinton is by now just flailing around fantasizing about incinerating children in playgrounds in Isfahan." is hateful and untrue and unworthy of you. Why should anyone give any credence to your commentary on Iran, Iraq and the Middle East when you so clearly go off the rail here with this monstrous portrayal of Hillary Clinton? Do you honestly believe she fantasizes about nuking Iran?

Or is it more likely that she was simply responding to this question with the truth. This is exactly what any American president would do if Iran somehow nuked Israel. It's also what they would do if Iran nuked Saudi Arabia, or Iraq, or Turkey, Egypt, Cyprus, or the Andaman Islands. She was merely stating the obvious - and scoring political points, not only with the Israeli lobby, but also with a good many Americans.

What would you suggest she should have said? Maybe something Kerryish like "We would have to study the situation and respond proportionately depending on the circumstances."

Granted it wasn't the best response. I would probably have prefaced my response by saying, "Our best intelligence says that Iran doesn't currently have nuclear weapons, but hypothetically, if they did, and they attacked another country with nuclear weapons, we would be forced to destroy them."

 
At 9:53 AM, Blogger Da' Buffalo Amongst Wolves said...

"It is an open secret in US security circles that no foreign country spies on the US more intensively than Israel."

That's because they are ALLOWED TO, at the highest levels of US government government & bureaucracy.

Then, once in a while, there's a show trial, 'show' diplomacy, as is the ongoing case with Pollard, and 'show' convictions, which 'prove' to the American public that the federal administrations foreign policy demands over the last 60 yeas or so aren't ABSOLUTELY DEPENDENT on Israel for whatever misguided policies they pursue in the Middle East and Persia.
..and Israel ABSOLUTELY DEPENDS on the US for it's very survival.

If you want to get a good look at the whole nest of spies, and the American government operatives who work side-by-side with them, forget AIPAC, it's just a PR 'flack' or 'ringer'... investigate JINSA, the direct connection between the US military-industrial complex and Israel's weapons development industry.

"JINSA/CSP advisers Richard Perle and Douglas Feith have spent the past fifteen years working quietly to keep the US arms sluice to Turkey open. JINSA/CSP advisers Richard Perle and Douglas Feith have spent the past fifteen years working quietly to keep the US arms sluice to Turkey open." Click here....

Describing itself as "the most influential group on the issue of U.S.-Israel military relations," the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs (JINSA) ... More

Other info, $$$:

CLOSE US-ISRAEL RETLATIONSHIP MAKES KEEPING SECRETS HARD
$3.95 - New York Times - Dec 22, 1985
DISPLAYING ABSTRACT ]The relationship between Israel and the United States ... dealing with one of the Israelis involved in the Pollard case - Yosef Yagor, who was listed as a science ...

http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F10E1EFD395F0C718EDDAB0994DD484D81

JSTOR: The Jonathan Pollard Case
Mr. Ravid was deputy science attache in Washington and Mr. Yagor was science attache at the Israeli Consulate in New York.
Or: http://www.jstor.org/pss/2536776

 
At 9:54 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Unfortunate as Clinton's remarks were, Obama (alas) is not far behind.

It seems that being pro Likud in New York is like being pro ethanol in Iowa. Everyone knows it's wrong but they think you have to do it to get elected.

Both have bad consequences. Making corn into ethanol contributes to world hunger.

 
At 10:07 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

For what it's worth, the Zogby poll you mentioned yesterday was spot on. Just an observation -- or motivation-- to maybe believe the next one. This is in large contrast to some earlier 'misses.'


cjc

(been reading your blog for years)

 
At 10:15 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Could I suggest that your strength as a blog is reporting on the middle east. More content on the status of the Iraqi Oil Law would be helpfull also.

If you copy Main Stream Media, there is not reason to come to your blog regarding the election

 
At 10:34 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dr. Cole:
You are an essential national resource at a time intellectual integrity is in short supply. However, elections should not be decided by the Creative Class or the media/political consultant/lobbyist complex. What's wrong with voting and politics?
I share your distaste for HRC but as a product of the 'excesses of the 60s and 70s' have no enthusiasism for BO. Your veiled suggestion that racism is the only reason for voting against BO is obnoxious. I was lucky enough to be able to vote for John Edwards and no longer have a dog in this fight.

WD Duncan

 
At 11:07 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Shameful behavior. I do not understand how Clinton could make such a comment.

 
At 11:20 AM, Blogger karlof1 said...

It should be clear by Clinton's own words and actions that she is no Christian. Thus admonishing her with Biblical verse is absurd. She stood by and by her silence approved of the Genocidal sanctions and somewhat secret continuation of the Gulf War against Iraq where over a million were killed that her husband presided over and for which he should be tried for crimes against humanity. Not to mention Yugoslavia and Rwanda. Nor has she stood up to vigorously oppose Bush's Imperial presidency. Furthermore, millions of Americans have no health insurance because of her deliberately destroying any chance that single payer would be passed in 1993-94, which was very possible at the time given any amout of presidential support. How many Americans died because of that is unknown, but surely numbers far more than those who died on 911.

Yes, my contempt for her runs high with good reason. Her prior performance proves her incapable of being any sort of moral and wise leader. And yes, Obama has his own baggage, but his wisdom and compassion allows him to stand in a different league than either Clinton or McCain.

 
At 11:29 AM, Blogger karlof1 said...

Bush has expressed "concern" about high oil and gasoline prices. If that were really true instead of just another lie amongst hundreds, he would remove two of the main causes for them: withdrawl all US troops from Iraq and end the economic war against Iran.

 
At 12:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Carl Cameron of foxnews did a four part package on israeli spying in the U.S. a few years ago. The Murdoch network ran it briefly, and even had it posted at the foxnews website but then inexplicably removed it. foxnews subsequently sanitized its cable broadcasts and eliminated all mention of it. The video report and text transcript is still available online here.

There are numerous links to reports of israeli espionage and duplicity in its relationship with the United States here.

"Israel does not spy on the United States of America."
-- Mark Regev, a spokesman at the Israeli embassy in Washington in 2002, speaking to and quoted by Christopher Ketcham.

By the way, you'll note that Ben-ami Kadish was arrested on Tuesday, 23 April which just so happened to be the day of the crucial democrat primary in Pennsylvania. What a coincidence. All the news organizations were understandably obsessed with that event. Of course that practically guaranteed the reports of an israeli spy arrested in New York would receive very little Establishment media news attention. If I were a cynical guy I might suspect the Feds planned it that way. It's bad form to embarrass israel dontcha know, even when they're spying on you.

.

 
At 12:55 PM, Blogger Advisor said...

I have found it quaint that so many commentators completely ignore Israel's nuclear weapons deterrence when looking at the various factors leading to the rise of the non-state guerrilla and terror groups in the Middle East in the 1970s...

When the insurgency in Kashmir reached a boiling point in the early 1990s, there was no doubt in the mind of many security analysts and commentators that the unconventional warfare had become the default option due to the nuclear deterrence to conventional war between the two states... Similarly, the nuclear deterrence prevented the two states from having an all out war over their entire border in 1999, and Indian generals struggled to contain the crises in its early days by trying to explain away the conflict as that caused by a few irregular insurgents...

There is no doubt in my mind that the propagation of the nuclear deterrence, disputed in 1967-68 but quite apparently well understood by Arab states by 1973, led directly to the rise in support for various Arab militia groups primarily because the Arab military commanders understood that they could no longer wage a conventional military war against Israel and hope for a victory that would not trigger Israeli nuclear strikes on Cairo, Amman, Beirut, Baghdad and Damascus.

To admit the Israeli nuclear deterrence itself was a factor in the rise of unconventional warfare in the region is, of course, to involve Israel in a critique of its nuclear military policy - which is quite a minefield for American commentators.

 
At 1:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'd rather see the Democratic candidate lose by articulating a different view of the world and a different set of possibilities than lose while essentially articulating some version of the current administration's positions on foreign and domestic policy. There are, and always have been, deep divisions in the US political landscape; they need to be exposed for what they are.

If we are stuck with two parties, then they might as well offer people a real choice. Those who think differently or have serious questions and doubts about the status quo need to know that they are not alone and that, in fact, that there are ten's of millions of citizens who share their concerns.

Bad policies lead to bad outcomes. Damage control and denial are short-term strategies as are all forms of oppression. If people know they are not alone, they will accept heartbreaking setbacks and press on. Which political party is really being put to the test here?

 
At 1:01 PM, Blogger Advisor said...

Regarding Hillary's comment - I find it amazing that both Hillary and McCain keep raising this fear of an Iranian strike on Israel, an action for which there is no historical precedent... Iran has never launched a direct attack on Israel, nor does it have any plans or stated intentions of doing so - However Ahmadinejad's words might be twisted to create an appearance of an Iranian military threat to Israel, this is simply not borne out in any real preparation for military strikes.

Neither of them, Hillary and McCain, of course, discuss what they would do if Israel attacked Iran or any other nation - an action for which there are abundant precedents. I guess it is a given that the US leadership will utter some mild displeasure and give Israel a couple of weeks to mop things up in such situations, as exhibited in Operation Grapes of Wrath in 1996, and the equally counterproductive Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 2006.

 
At 1:37 PM, Blogger Unknown said...

How did the quaintly chivalrous Khameni feel about the Basiji? (the child soldiers/mine sweepers in the Iran-Iraq war?) I have a feeling that under the right circumstances the Mullah's can find exceptions to any Koranic restrictions. They cannot however find a way to circumvent mutually assured destruction.

 
At 1:47 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Re the medium-big picture, here is how it seems to be shaping up:

1. In Iraq, we have increasing use of US missiles, bombs and armor, to push Maliki-Hakim's gov't into complete dominance of the Baghdad-Basra Shiite South. This started before the bulk of surge brigades withdraw, and hopes to take advantage of the Fall Provincial elections to consolidate ISCI control at Sadrist expense.

(Ascendance of ISCI/Hakim seems agreeable to Iran, and therefore doable, outside the Sunni areas. )

2. The US will continue our 2007 policy of allowing the armed Sunni in W. Baghdad and the Anbar river valley to secure themselves against the Maliki regime, in hopes that they will deliver on promises to keep the trans-national and iraqi salafists out of sight and out of the US news.

3. Kurds will continue to plan, politic or fight by whatever means for 'eretz kurdistan', driving for a straightened and expanded homeland border, out to the kurd area above Tikrit, on up the river to Mosul, inclusive of Kirkuk. Violent times ahead for the ethnic transition zones and Turkmen enclaves.

4. Public statements about the threat to US/Europe from Pakistan have come from the intel community, DoD/Gates/Mullen, and now the Congressional GAO report that our Pakistan-AlQ policy lacks cohesion or strategy. This strikes me as multipolar bipartisan consensus to shift US forces to Afghanistan, as early as late 2008.

5. Petraeus' early confirmation to CENTCOM command makes me think that both Bush/McCain, Clinton, and enough congressional Democrats are OK with an Afghanistan 'surge' for it to happen. (Similar to how unpopular NAFTA/GAT type trade agreements are rammed thru in the lame duck sessions, when elected officers are least accountable.)

Look for dramatic troop announcements (out of Iraq, on to Afghanistan!) in the Fall. My guess is that in the US election hubbub, gasps, chest-puffing about doubling our troops in Afghanistan will drown out news of ongoing fighting and chaos in both Iraq and on the Afghani-Paki borderlands.

 
At 3:15 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I read your blog daily, and always look forward to it. However I am very disappointed first that you have chosen to criticize HRC, and second you quote religious hokem pokem. I am having a problem with finding a reason to vote for Obama, so instead of criticising Hillary, can you give us reasons to vote for Obama? Since Obama got his butt kicked in the last debate, he refuses another. He's afraid of Michigan/Florida results and won't allow them. He uses noise to mask Hillary's advantages, including charges of racism (a charge leveled against me this morning in a comment I made, stupidity personified). Obama refuses to fight, to explain why anyone should vote for him. Can you enlighten us about that? My advice to Obama: Negotiate with Hillary immediately, to have a chance being chosen for the vice presidency, while you have the advantage. You will be too weak to be considered in another few weeks.

 
At 3:40 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

jj's comments are constructive. It's again NOT WHAT IS SAID BUT HOW something is said that has gotten both Clinton and Obama in trouble. I am troubled by all of the candidates at this point, whether it is Hillary the Obliterator or McCain the Bomb-Bomb Iran man. Is Obama more rational? Would he make our world and our country a safer place than either McCain or Clinton? As far as Israelis spying, most of the Bush administration are Israelis (or at least have dual citizenship). There has been something ROTTEN IN WASHINGTON for some time. Oh, and what about the Mossad agents who were filmed laughing as 9/11 happened? And the Netanyahu statement?

 
At 3:50 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The question is whether Barack obama will get us out of Iraq completely and fast, and I do not know the answer and this bothers me immensely.

I as surer Clinton will get us out than Obama. I remember what Samantha Power an Colin Kahl have said.

Clinton is determined to get us out of Iraq, I do not know about Obama.

 
At 6:20 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

massminuteman said..

"I don't love the Hillary Clinton strategy of keeping the 'pro-Israel' Right winglet of the Party close and satisfied via rhetoric, but the arithmetic on keeping it out of her back and expending it in a Sharonesque fashion works."

So if the "rhetoric" is genocidal, and it sways the "right winglet" to favor Hillary somewhat, doesn't it mean that the "arithmetic" amounts to a fairly terrifying potential reality ? I mean, when the "winglet" calls in its favors ?

Politics has an ugly, "suckered in" effect where you're forced to defend and act according to a position you've taken, even though the position is incredibly dangerous and stupid.

The sucker-in factor is all the more dangerous, because while the Right winglet of the "Party" is small, *OUTSIDE* the party, takers for such factors very powerful and influential.

And things "working" in a "Sharonesque fashion" - if you mean Ariel Sharon, is hearkening back to the logic of "obliterate Iran to solve problems with Iran". Sharonesque tactics don't "work" for anything good, period.

 
At 6:21 PM, Blogger MonsieurGonzo said...

It is interesting to erase the Colonial-era, or otherwise arbitrary ‘nation’ boundaries from a map of the Middle East, and by doing so view this region thus as the angst of competing theocracies apparent:

‘IRAQ’ was once a major player in the Arab political firmament, receiving Gulf Arab funding for its 1980-88 war against Iran in a pan-Arab effort to stem the influence of non-Arab, Shi'ite Muslim power Iran after its revolution of 1979. But with Shi'ite clerics and politicians dominating the scene after the U.S.-led invasion of 2003, leaders such as Egypt's Hosni Mubarak and Jordan's King Abdallah have expressed views revealing a fear that ‘IRAQ’ was no longer part of the club.

"There is a new regional scene and a fear for the future of Sunni political hegemony as a Shi'ite camp forms with the Shi'ite ascendance in Iraq," said Fouad Ibrahim, a Saudi author of a study on Saudi Arabia's Shi'ite minority.

"Most Arab governments are not willing to see Shi'ite domination. They would accept Shi'ite participation but not domination of Iraq," said Mohamed el-Sayed Said, Egyptian political scientist and editor of al-Badil newspaper.

Diplomats in Riyadh say Saudi Arabia, which considers itself the leading representative of mainstream Sunni Islam, decided last year to reduce its dealings with Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki after concluding he was running a Shi'ite sectarian government, too close to Iran.”

iow, we either acknowledge that this whole, ‘Global War On Terror’ thing was a kinda cooked-up, casus belli to begin with; or, we just move on... from US and THEM, back then, to what they are doing, now : "who is really fighting whom", today ~ and what, (if not ‘terror’), do they think that they are fighting for, or against?

"The Arab (Sunni) states believe the American presence is helping to create stability and curbing Iranian (Shi'ite) influence," said Ghassan al-Atiya, an Iraqi analyst based in London.

Whereas the power to be or become elected President of the United States is often expressed by "the politics of anxious masculinity", power in the Middle East is here expressed as "the politics of anxious, ancient theocracy". That few of us, Over Here understand them, and “Why They Fight”, is certainly true; But, imho the really interesting question for historians is what the hell do THEY, Sunni and Shi'ite peoples Over There think that they are doing? Beyond some local, ‘cycle of revenge’ dynamic, are they anymore aware than the Americans of some necessary, fundamental cause for WAR : “Why, in the Name of Allah, Are We Fighting?”

. . .Or are they, not unlike us, caught up in a ‘conflict apparent’, something that serves not themselves, or even Islam at all ~ but a useful legal basis for War Powers ~ supporting a Unitary Executive -based government; and as well a wholly economic agenda, resource = Kapital extraction by a privileged few, to the detriment of their dis-enfranchised many?

 
At 7:46 PM, Blogger Austinarchitect said...

The fact that Israel is spying on the US is a little like saying that Maryland is spying on DC.

After all, Israel is a de facto state of the US in all but name.

 
At 7:57 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Senator Clinton is by now just flailing around fantasizing about incinerating children in playgrounds in Isfahan." is hateful and untrue and unworthy of you.

Hillary said it and that is the exact import of her words. To claim otherwise is to claim that there is a veiled reality behind appearances, "knowing " that the Clinton machine is "morally superior" retroactively justifies any actions it takes. The same sort of rationale that "justifies" Israeli and US War Crimes in the Middle East already.

No sacrifice by others or of others is too great to put the Clintons in power, of keep the Israelis dominant in Palestine.

The Clintons have internalized the AIPAC's message about "Israeli interests" and applied AIPAC's strategy to their own "interests".

On the Iraq war, Paul Craig Roberts looks at the numbers :

What the Iraq War is About

Why does the Bush Regime want to rule Iraq? Some speculate that it is a matter of “peak oil.” Oil supplies are said to be declining even as demand for oil multiplies from developing countries such as China. According to this argument, the US decided to seize Iraq to insure its own oil supply.

This explanation is problematic. Most US oil comes from Canada, Mexico, and Venezuela. The best way for the US to insure its oil supplies would be to protect the dollar’s role as world reserve currency. Moreover, $3-5 trillion would have purchased a tremendous amount of oil. Prior to the US invasions, the US oil import bill was running less than $100 billion per year. Even in 2006 total US imports from OPEC countries was $145 billion, and the US trade deficit with OPEC totaled $106 billion. Three trillion dollars could have paid for US oil imports for 30 years; five trillion dollars could pay the US oil bill for a half century had the Bush Regime preserved a sound dollar.

The more likely explanation for the US invasion of Iraq is the neoconservative Bush Regime’s commitment to the defense of Israeli territorial expansion. There is no such thing as a neoconservative who is not allied with Israel. Israel hopes to steal all of the West Bank and southern Lebanon for its territorial expansion. An American colonial regime in Iraq not only buttresses Israel from attack, but also can pressure Syria and Iran from giving support to the Palestinians and Lebanese. The Iraqi war is a war for Israeli territorial expansion. Americans are dying and bleeding to death financially for Israel. Bush’s “war on terror” is a hoax that serves to cover US intervention in the Middle East in behalf of “greater Israel.”


Just as Israel has defined "the game" in the Middle East as a zero-summer so too have the Clintons defined democratic politics. In each case it's all about themselves.

And to hell, literally, with all of us.

 
At 8:58 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hillary said it and that is the exact import of her words.

So by saying that she would nuke Iran in a hyptothetical scenario, she is "fantasizing about incenerating children"?

You believe what you want to believe, but if the only way you can justify your support of Obama is to turn Hillary into the next Hitler, that says more about you than it does either Obama or Hillary. And John McCain appreciates your support.

 
At 10:08 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The only candidate foreign policy and that interventionism is unconstitutional is Ron Paul.
HRC, the Kosovo corsair and Bomb-Bomb McCain both scare the daylights out of anyone who has been paying attention for the last 20 years. My only hope, now that the powers in the mainstream press have selected their candidates, is that Obama is elected and "rules the empire" with some semblance of a non-interventionist foreign policy. We are not the only adults in the room.

 
At 10:51 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Checking in to see if anyone took me up on my request that instead of attacking Clinton we are told what wonderful things Obama will do. As they say, crickets. C'mon, boys and girls, there must be something. We know he is running and hiding from another debate, but he's good at doing a little dance while giving the finger and brushing his shoulder. He's good at making noise to mask Hillary's advantages. We know his healthcare program is lacking, according to Ms. Edwards. We know he doesn't want MI and FL seated, even though not doing so may cost Democrats the presidency. Tell me, just why should I vote for this person?

 
At 1:07 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This post hit the spot. Thank you Juan Cole for everything you do.

Juan Cole for president 2012!

 
At 1:52 AM, Blogger sherm said...

By the time the election rolls around, a "FOUR MORE YEARS" bumper sticker could represent the Republican OR the Democratic candidate.

 
At 4:19 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't know if US citizens realise how grotesque it appears to those of us outside the US, when the three candidates are forced to practically pledge an oath of allegiance to Israel, as they did at Passover. Can you imagine the absurdity, if it was any other country? Whatever your opinion is of Israel, for the US to be so craven towards it is very bad politics, and does very little for its own self respect. Even more ridiculous is by doing so, they are doing the opposite of their intentions. By giving a blank cheque to Israel, they encourage it in its bloodthirsty siege and willingness to destroy all around it. The US could be forcing Israel to adopt a mature existence, it could even be an engine for growth in the Middle East, if it would accept it is a small Middle Eastern country, instead of imagining it is a US outpost in a foreign land.

 
At 4:26 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It would be worthwhile if people started from the assumption that democracy in America is dead at the federal level and began the long, hard work of re-imagining it and its institutions.

Of course this is daunting... but the reality of the dysfunction is too complete to be ignored.

Two party grip? Electoral College? Politicized judiciary? Campaign funding? Bi-national loyalties in high government positions?

There is no saviour other than the people themselves starting to understand and address the rot... the pretense of renewal every four to eight years has killed substantive thinking.

America is a hair trigger away from using nuclear weapons against a defenseless people for a series of lies propagated by a foreign government.

This is not the will of the American people.

 
At 5:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

anonymous wrote :

' So by saying that she would nuke Iran in a hyptothetical scenario, she is "fantasizing about incenerating children"? '

Read the exact quote from Hilary

From http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN2224332720080422

'"I want the Iranians to know that if I'm the president, we will attack Iran.

"In the next 10 years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them."'

them = Iranians,
Iranians = 70 million men /women AND children,

Obliterate them = incinerate NOT JUST children, but EACH MAN WOMAN AND CHILD in Iran.


If you prefer to transmogrify her statements into whatever you hope she said, you might as well interpret "obliterate" as "fall in love with". However, that constitutes living in Noddyland.

 
At 7:26 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The question is whether Obama means to get us out of Iraq. Clinton will do so, but Obama keeps hedging. I find Clinton more likely to be the peacemaker so far.

I understand your anger, but I want us out of Iraq and I want peace, and I think Clinton most determined to get us out of Iraq and bring peace. Show me Obama determination to get us out of Iraq and I will vote for Obama. What I find so far is Obama being more warlike than Clinton.

 
At 8:43 AM, Blogger Christiane said...

To John Francis Lee

I'm often in agreement with your comments, but here, I don't buy the Paul Craig paragraphs you are quoting. It's a little too easy for the Americans to put all on the shoulders of Israel and to see Israel as manipulating them. America is powerfull country and it will only help Israel as long as serves its own interests. Also, going to war being so costful and harmful, so in order to bring a whole country and its allies at war, you have to convince many many different groups of people. So there are rarely a single cause explaining a war, but rather a whole bunch of reasons, amounting to the convergence of several different interests. Further, Paul Craig arguments, that peak oil isn't the ground of the Iraq invasion, aren't that convincing. I will grant you that seen at short term, the outcome doesn't look so favorable concerning US oil ressources. But :
1) This is different of what was thought before the war, ie by Wolfowitz. In judging the motives, what count is what was thought before the invasion, not was is the actual outcome.
2) Why did Bremer and co try to privatize all the industrial sector of Iraq, if it wasn't to allow the presence of foreign companies?
3) One can't yet judge the outcome of the war/occupation, since the US is still pressing the Iraqi government to adopt an oil law which would allow PSA and lyon share of the oil benefits to foreign companies.
4) May be the US isn't yet able to get to the Iraqi oil, but neither are the fast developping countries like China and India, nor countries like France and Russia who had signed oil contracts with Saddam. That is an important outcome which shouldn't be underestimated. (after all the US aim is to remain the sole superpower in this world and this implies the control of energy and oil ressources).
5) Controlling the oil doens't mean exactly buying all the Iraqi oil for the US, but it means controlling the quantity of oil on the market and thus its price and also controlling who can get access to it.
6) Last but not least, the oil reserve amounts aren't yet known (or kept secret), they may diminish much faster than is believed or announced officially.
7) High oil prices in the end benefits to the oil companies and the militaro-industrial-energy complex. So the right question may be who in America benefits from it.

In conclusion, oil may not be the only reason explaining the Iraq invasion, but I'm quite sure it played a big role, if not the biggest.

 
At 4:59 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thursday, 24 April 2008 - Complete news blackout of the israeli spy story

I've had one television tuned to MSNBC and one television tuned to foxnews since 03:00 Pacific time. Not a single report on the israeli spy who was arrested in New York. I've been checking CNN periodically and no mention there either but it's possible they reported it and I missed it.

Murdoch's network DID do a story on a Mexican official who was caught boarding an international flight with some U.S. government Blackberries in his possession but Rupert's crew and MSNBC have both been silent on the israeli spy story all day.

 
At 8:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Chritiane

I agree with most, if not all, of what you say.

The most salient characteristic of "our" government is its fragmentation. The seats of power are organized around their own "issues". So Oil cares about oil, War cares about war, and the politicians themselves merely carry this bucket and then that. And no one cares about the interests of the United States or of the American people.

The AIPAC and other components of the Israel lobby care not even about Israel but about their revenue stream and its enhancement, and that stream is based upon continued War. They are just like the other lobbies, but wrapped in their own toxic ethno-religious cover, just as is the homegrown Xtian Taleban.

It seems to me that this shocking, awful adventure in the Middle East is the result of the Neocons' manipulations of more than a decade. They brought Oil and War on board with the obvious promises and obvious payoffs. Now the train is rolling down the track and each mindless lobby is happy. The cash is rolling in to Oil, War, and Neocon coffers.

And the Middle East is being destroyed, which is the US/Israeli Neocon goal.

Yes it was a convergence of interests. None of them ours or our country's because we are unrepresented in our own government.

And we are unrepresented by Clinton/McCain/Obama, who in the New Politics represent themselves first and foremost and then the people and institutions who fund their campaigns.

Oil and War went along for the ride on this war. They were doing just fine before it, but were willing to take a flyer on what was essentially a Neocon scheme with small downside for them with payoffs beyond their usual, measured increment. They hit the jackpot, and they're still getting paid. It looks bad for the US at this point, the American people never came or come into their calculations, so their main consideration at this point is making plans for after the fall.

The sole remaining engine of the shameful debacle in the Middle East are the Neocons, authors of this holocaust to Ares to begin with.

We can kick the can for four more years, vote for Clinton/McCain/Obama, wait 'til we wake up in the gutter and then flail around for a villain to blame.

Or we can begin to create an alternative now. Gravel/McKinney/Nader. I vote for starting now.

 
At 1:24 AM, Blogger Peter Attwood said...

I don't expect much good from Obama if he's elected, although you never know.

But Clinton's promise of nuclear genocide against Iran is completely believable, because the sanctions regime under her husband was intentionally genocidal and went on for 8 years on their watch.

Clinton has no problem with genocide, no problem with torture, no problem with aggressive war for no reason, as she showed by voting for the invasion in the first place and continuing to support the war and all its lies for years thereafter.

EVen John McCain has problems with torture, more than Clinton. It's a bad choice, but between McCain and Clinton, Clinton is no clear choice.

 

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