Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Friday, August 31, 2007

Arguments over Night of the Living Dead in Iraq

A Government Accounting Office report has found that the Iraqi government has not met 13 of 18 benchmarks set by the US Congress. The report was leaked before it could be doctored by the Bush administration, which promptly denounced it and pledged to . . . doctor it.

Another thing that could be said is that of the 18 congressional benchmarks some are frankly trivial. The trivial ones are the only ones met.

I personally find the controversy about Iraq in Washington to be bizarre. Are they really arguing about whether the situation is improving? I mean, you have the Night of the Living Dead over there. People lack potable water, cholera has broken out even in the good areas, a third of people are hungry, a doubling of the internally displaced to at least 1.1 million, and a million pilgrims dispersed just this week by militia infighting in a supposedly safe all-Shiite area. The government has all but collapsed, with even the formerly cooperative sections of the Sunni Arab political class withdrawing in a snit (much less more Sunni Arabs being brought in from the cold). The parliament hasn't actually passed any legislation to speak of and often cannot get a quorum. Corruption is endemic. The weapons we give the Iraqi army are often sold off to the insurgency. Some of our development aid goes to them, too.

The average number of Iraqis killed in 2007 per day exceeds those killed in 2006. Independent counts by news organizations do not agree with Pentagon estimates about drops in civilian deaths over-all. Nation-wide attacks in June reached a daily all-time high of 177.5. True, violence in Baghdad has been wrestled back down to the levels of summer, 2006 (hint: it wasn't paradise), but violence levels are up in the rest of the country. If you compare each month in 2006 with each month in 2007 with regard to US military deaths, the 2007 picture is dreadful.

I saw on CNN this smarmy Bush administration official come and and say that US troop deaths had fallen because of the surge, which is why we should support it. Just read the following chart bottom to top and compare 2006 month by month to 2007. US troop deaths haven't fallen. They are way up. Besides, they would be zero if the US were not occupying Iraq militarily, so if we should support a policy that leads to fewer troop deaths, that is the better policy.

Here are the US troop death via Icasualties.org.

8-2007 77     8-2006 65
7-2007 79     7-2006 43
6-2007 101    6-2006 61
5-2007 126    5-2006 69
4-2007 104    4-2006 76
3-2007 81     3-2006 31
2-2007 81     2-2006 55
1-2007 83     1-2006 62

I mean, how brain dead do the Bushies think we are, peddling this horse manure that US troop deaths have fallen? (There are always seasonal variations because in the summer it is 120 F. in the shade and guerrillas are too heat-exhausted to fight; but the summer 2007 numbers are much greater than those for summer 2006; that isn't progress.) And why does our corporate media keep repeating this Goebbels-like propaganda? Do we really live in an Orwellian state?

I'm at a conference. I would make a chart to illustrate the above if I had the time. Somebody else please do it. Maybe we bloggers can unite to keep the debate from being conducted on false premises for once.

(Thanks just a million to Kevin Drum at Washington Monthly and all the others who responded to my call for a graph here. It is striking when you see it that way. Look in comments for more such links.)

Repeat: US troop deaths in Iraq have not fallen and that is not a reason to support the troop escalation. And, violence in Iraq has not fallen because of the surge. Violence is way up this year.

-----------------
At the Napoleon's Egypt blog: "The Washington of France."

34 Comments:

At 3:25 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The figures would have been worse, much worse, if the US military hadn't cut deals with the Sunni insurgents, particularly in Anbar.

The success in Anbar and similar areas is being peddled as a surge result, and even justification, although it has absolutely nothing to do with it. It is just a deal.

 
At 3:31 AM, Blogger Mane said...

Yes, I think that the best antidote to the Orwellian propaganda is citizen journalism. We have the technical means, the sources, and the energy.

I will do my small part in my blog, here in Finland (half of my readers are in the USA, though).

Let us not let the liars prevail!

 
At 7:41 AM, Blogger Fabius Maximus said...

Here is the chart of monthly Coalition fatalities (note that the 6 and 12 month moving averages keep rising):
http://www.defense-and-society.org/fcs/pdf/iraq_fatalities.pdf

BTW, what "surge" in Coalition Troop numbers? This chart shows that US increases have just offset departures by our allies.
http://www.defense-and-society.org/charts_data/iraq_force_levels.pdf

Looking at just US numbers is misleading.

 
At 8:15 AM, Blogger Wagner said...

Here's a chart of the casualty figures for 2006 vs. 2007:

http://i5.tinypic.com/54mkcah.png

For the sake of completeness, I added the figures for the remaining months of 2006.

 
At 8:35 AM, Blogger Tom said...

Juan wrote:

"I would make a chart to illustrate the above if I had the time. Somebody else please do it. Maybe we bloggers can unite to keep the debate from being conducted on false premises for once"
Pleased to oblige:

http://www.blairwatch.co.uk/node/1881

 
At 10:22 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

exact same thing as reporting in nyt on federal budget deficit. they have actually spun it that bush is coming close to achieving
his goal of halving the deficit
by 2009.
it is not even mentioned, not even 6 paragraphs down, that iraq spending is off-budget. where else can six years of 100+ b a year outlays as far as the eye can see
be claimed as one time expenses?

 
At 10:47 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mr. Cole,

The frightening part is that there are those who STILL think these deaths and this violence are justified--because Iraq funded/sheltered terrorists, or "could have" funded terrorists, and who are willing to go to war with Iran for similar reasons. There are people who think ANYTHING is a cause for war. For instance, see this comment thread:

http://weblogs.swarthmore.edu/burke/?p=419#comments

The "logic" is amazing. You can go in and butcher an entire country for the flimsiest of pretexts. It's the foreign policy equivalent of pulling out a gun and shooting someone to death because they were looking at you funny.

How do we argue with these people? I'm starting to think that we can't, that they just get off on war. All we can do is point, laugh and hold them up to the scorn of their fellow human beings.

 
At 11:03 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Do we really live in an Orwellian state?"

Yes.

 
At 11:07 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have posted the graph you proposed (US troop deaths by month, Jan - Feb 2006 & 2007) on my blog (shadowedforest.blogspot.com). All are welcome to copy the jpeg.

We could--and should--also come up with other indicators of progress, as well. Anyone have additional stats?

 
At 11:41 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Actually, the rate of increase in deaths is declining. That is, though each month is worse than the same month a year ago, that difference has fallen the last three months.

So, though more are dying than last year, the number more killed is shrinking -- soon we will lose only the same number as last year, which is almost like no one is being killed. Or something like that.

It's hogwash, no matter how you slice it.

Ed

 
At 11:45 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Juan Cole: "I mean, how brain dead do the Bushies think we are, peddling this horse manure that US troop deaths have fallen?"

It's now how brain dead they think WE are, it's how brain dead they think the CNN talking heads and the other assorted beltway media clowns are.

And the answer to that, of course, is a completely flat line on the EEG.

 
At 11:57 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I personally find the whole idea of benchmarks for the Iraqis obscene.

The Iraqis are still paying 'reparations' to all and sundry who felt monetarily deprived over the war that wasn't with Kuwait.

Now, with their oil revenues not going to assist them, their food growing land contaminated with the chemicals and wages of a US war, they're supposed to meet benchmarks???

Am I the only one in the world who finds this totally outrageous?? Get out of the country, let them repudiate the loans that didn't benefit them anyway, and pay for the damage that America has done. This is the butcher's bill, and it's overdue.

 
At 12:05 PM, Blogger Mane said...

Juan,

a chart at
http://www.systemsarchitecture.org/mane/Pictures/USA_casualties.jpg

 
At 12:34 PM, Blogger David Nett said...

Cole -

Just emailed you a little chart (can't embed in the comments).

Thanks, as always, for the insight and analysis.

-David

 
At 1:03 PM, Blogger Peter Attwood said...

The casualties they're NOT talking about are the countless people being killed in the greatly increased American bombing campaign all around the country.

People killed by car bombs get talked about big. The many more killed by wanton American bombing of civilian areas - never mind those sentenced to future death by depleted uranium - are never mentioned.

And another thing. Why shouldn't the Bushies think the American people and Congress are brain dead? That's the most reasonable conclusion. Consider that these people have not been impeached - I guess because only lying about a blow job is an impeachable offense these days. More than that, Congress keeps letting them ADD more police state restrictions and to torture whomever they please.

In view of the consensus in favor of the war and all its associated crimes today in both political parties, and the determination to keep Bush and Cheney unaccountable - from Nancy Pelosi and John Conyers on down - are the Bushies so unreasonable? Can we expect any better from those who are enabling their enormities today, once they are in office?

 
At 1:05 PM, Blogger MonsieurGonzo said...

McClatchy : “WASHINGTON — In a sign that top commanders are divided over what course to pursue in Iraq, the Pentagon said Wednesday that it won't make a single, unified recommendation to President Bush during next month's strategy assessment, but instead will allow top commanders to make individual presentations: ‘Consensus is not the goal of the [progress report] process’.”

Apparently, neither is participation by any Iraqi commander, or man on the street, to answer frankly: Comment ça va?

The question that really hangs in the air, haunting the U.S. Officer Corps and American electorate, is: who is The Enemy? not simply, how is it going, mon General? And that there is no consensus about 'who they are' ensures that we cannot know 'who we are,' or for that matter, what The Mission = our reason for being there, among but not with them, is.

if we lack the courage to admit to ourselves that "We are Occupiers," then we will remain lousy occupiers. We will continue expending our once razor-fine assault troops as dumbed-down security guards, de facto drill sergeants for vaporware Security Forces, or worse, "come out, come out wherever you are!" just plain bait, riding around town in sluggish turtles in a childish -yet- deadly game of "Hajji Hide & Seek."

After all, if there is no consensus to the question: "Who is The Enemy?" Then the answer must be the enemy is US; and perhaps we should ask ourselves, thus: who is our friend?

 
At 1:19 PM, Blogger Jeff said...

Kevin Drum has a beautiful chart up here:

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2007_08/011974.php

My post is here:

http://www.ohiodailyblog.com/2007/08/troop-fatalities-have-not-fallen.html

Thanks, as always, for your work.

 
At 1:44 PM, Blogger Eric Soderstrom said...

::And why does our corporate media keep repeating this Goebbels-like propaganda? Do we really live in an Orwellian state?::

I have observed that people are easily convinced of that which they are predisposed to believe. And those in power with an agenda take advantage of this. So long before the official reports have been released, we get leaks and press releases supporting the facts (and fantasies) of those in power.

When I heard these reports, I was inclined to believe they were untrue. So I went searching for different opinions. Most people really want the surge to work - more than they want the truth. So they hear the news they want to hear and look no further.

Every mainstream media report I've seen says either "Pentagon disputes report findings" (which sows confusion) or "Petraeus says surge is working." These reports don't need to be true, they are just repeated. This is the only place I've seen these reports disputed so far.

So in a couple of weeks, when Petraeus' report is released, it's debunking will already be old news.

I'm currently reading Joe Bageant's "Deer Hunting With Jesus: Dispatches From The Class War" and it is giving me some good answers to the question, "How can people believe this nonsense?"

The short answer is they get their information from limited sources (conservative talk radio and local Republican grass roots activists) and that listening to talk radio sounds like your own voice inside your head. I'm not even halfway through the book yet, but so far it has been very enlightening. He walks freely in and reports from a world a lot of us seldom see.

 
At 2:03 PM, Blogger Linkmeister said...

Kevin Drum has created just such a chart, as you requested.

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2007_08/011974.php

 
At 3:26 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here is link to a chart

http://www.ac.wwu.edu/~stephan/USfatalities.html

 
At 3:32 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Quote "And why does our corporate media keep repeating this Goebbels-like propaganda? Do we really live in an Orwellian state?"

I think you already know the answer to that question.

 
At 4:59 PM, Blogger Eschew Obfuscation said...

Great post. Here is the requested graph with the August deaths upped to 80. http://beclear.blogspot.com/2007/08/us-troop-deaths-in-iraq.html

 
At 6:29 PM, Blogger the guava tree said...

I averaged the 2004-2006 per month data and compared it with the 2007 here

 
At 8:41 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You can get the graph at the Brookings Institute, along with lots of other statistics. Although some of the charts are not up to date and don't include August 2007.

 
At 3:58 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"I personally find the whole idea of benchmarks for the Iraqis obscene."

In addition to the very valid reasons you stated, there is the simple fact that the United States has no business imposing (self-serving) "benchmarks" on the supposedly legitimate, supposedly democratically elected supposed government of a supposedly sovereign state!

So, which is it, oh great American government? Is Iraq a sovereign state with a legitimate democratically elected government, or is Iraq a country under the colonial rule of the United States empire?

And of course no discussion of "benchmarks" is complete without making the criminal-imposing-self-serving-benchmarks-on his-victim. The Bush regime imposing self-serving benchmarks on Iraq is equivalent to the kidnapper/rapist insisting that his victim, in order to secure her release, must first have his baby, and hand it over to him.

 
At 7:17 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What was great about your column today was not only did I learn a lot but your anger was very much vibrating off my computer screen -
One thing that helps people break through the narcotic haze of Orwellian double speak is clear righteous anger -

 
At 10:04 AM, Blogger Casualty Monitor said...

The situation year-on-year for the British in southern Iraq has seen an even more dramatic deterioration, with a tripling of the fatality rate since the begining of this year and steadily climbing combat casualties. Graphical analysis can be found here

 
At 10:55 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The August 2007 figure was a partial month figure and was not identified as such in the charts. As of the morning of Spetmeber 1, USA, icasualities.org now shows 81 US fatalities for August 2007.

 
At 11:53 AM, Blogger Unknown said...

I think you meant "has not met 15 of the 18 benchmarks" (not 13 of the 18).

 
At 6:27 PM, Blogger Kathy said...

Prof. Cole:

In your first sentence, I think that should be 15 out of 18 benchmarks that the Iraqi government has not met, not 13 out of 18. They have only met 3 of the 18 benchmarks. That must mean they have not met 15.

Kathy Kattenburg (usually math-challenged, but I think I'm right on this one)

 
At 2:38 AM, Blogger Alamaine said...

'I mean, how brain dead do the Bushies think we are, peddling this horse manure that US troop deaths have fallen?'

Unfortunately, if all are like their leader, the Buscists are all afraid of horses. This might have something to do with a bad experience (as I conceive of it) with the old quarter horse at the Five 'N Dime, the kind that went for three minutes per quarter. Of course, the only manure that exists around them is the kids' pants full. The fear of the 'quarter horses' easily translates into being afraid of crapping their drawers.

All postulating aside, deaths are relative to those who don't have to suffer them. We are not too far removed from the dayze when people were only expected to live around 50 years (on average) before they became fertiliser and made way for the next generation. We are even closer to the dayze when sending men (only) into battle meant thousands of deaths per incident. Genocides were okay so long as they had the approval of the empires' leaders, whether Ottoman, 'Christian,' Soviet, National(ist) Socialist, Cambodian, and American (Indians, Vietnam, Iraq, and so on). The numbers of Americans dying in Iraq is miniscule in comparison to past conflicts, even to those occurring on the American roadways, the overall Iraq total equalling about one months' vehicle toll.

Paraphrasing Leona Helmsley, 'Only little people are taxed.' Taxes represent money, time, manpower, and materiel. The wealthier get to pay their way out of any credible service, not unlike the Civil War dayze when one could hire on a replacement. Well-connected people got out of Vietnam if only they could get enough deferments or had enough family connexions. Even Larry Craig was a draft dodger in the early 1970ies, joining the Idaho National Guard, attaining the rank of PFC before vacating that position after two or three years. Quayle and others associated with the Buscists took a similar route to avoid being put into harm's way, leaving the heroics to those who were not 'fortunate sons.'

The 'all-volunteer' military was a response to the winding down of the SouthEast Asian boondoggle, without regard to any other major conflicts on the planning agendas. The first Iraq boondoggle (1990-91) was condicted with the remnants of the 'Cold War' forces, later reduced to reflect 'victory' over the Soviet Bloc and the Iraqis. The second one was planned and executed with the pared down forces inherited from the Cheney-Powell 'Base Force' dayze, followed by 'Less' Aspin's follow-up 'Bottom Up Review.' Again, nothing major was anticipated.

The Buscists are horsing around with the data if only to make themselves feel better, just like the favourable opportunities and military assignments that they got in their own earlier years. With so much capital expended on Iraq (and to a lesser extent, Afghanistan), there will be as much justification for pursuing the course until some favourable end. The key remains purging the oil of the Euro.

Whether the impetus was personal (attempts on the Bush family's lives) or economic (monopolising the oil priced in Dollars) or political (stemming terrorism) or any other rationale, the way forward will be hedged by many steps to the sides and backwards. For any people who have no real personal stake in the theatre of operations, there will be the constant tendency toward conceptual rationales for defending the American way of life through fighting in others' countries. Protecting the Saudis or reclaiming Iran for the sake of the Shah's progeny or just making a complicated mess simply because that's easier to explain than the allowing of others to do their own organising, all of which will be justified by those who want their proper and prestigious places in history.

As the old tune goes, 'If it weren't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all.' The key here is to see how much bad luck there is, using metrics and measurements to determine how deep the mine shaft is, just in time to have it collapse. Of course, no one in leadership or management will be bringing in their 'sixteen tons,' suffering the collapse of everything gained through the hard work of others. Or their maiming or dying.

Confrontations with the Chinese, shuttle disasters, buildings falling in NYC, failed operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, hurricanes, mines, and economic downturns are only some of the things that will characterise the first years of the 21st Century. The only way out of all of this is to prevail militarily, using some ruse in the guise of 'democracy' to motivate the people at home to support interventions, making them think that the people living in foreign lands share the same objectives. Galvanising indigenous populations abroad against the Americans only helps to promote the notions of opposition to 'Western' values, for positive or negative. Where there were no problems before, creating them only provides a self-fulfilling prophecy of endangered Americanism.

Like many forest fires, the way to create perceptual changes is to allow the situations to get so far out of control that any solutions after the fires have been extinguished will be accepted. Of course, what will be avoided will be the negligence of those tasked with preventing the conflagrations in the first place. Permitting the underbrush (terrorists) to go unchecked provides the tinder for a wider and wilder calamity. Of course, there will be no expense spared for fixing the problems once they get out of control. Iraq is merely the same situation in a different form. New Orleans as well. Post-11th September 2001 thinking serves all purposes ... as if no one knew anything beforehand ... as if everything was one big surprise ...

 
At 4:48 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The real headline is, Fatalities are up by 60% over last year. Regarding the press' mindless conveyance of Bush propaganda, the are complicit. To believe otherwise would be to believe that they don't have the resources to do the fact checking that anyone with a computer and a little time could do, like so many here have done.

 
At 4:03 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

thank you

sohbet zurna

 
At 12:13 AM, Anonymous シティゴールドカード said...

surge result, and even justification, although it has absolutely nothing to do with it. It is just a deal.

 

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