Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Iraqi Public Wants US Troops Out within a Year
Sunni Parliamentarian Accused of Links to Bombers


A poll of Iraqis commission by USA Today and several other news organizations revealed that:


"In all, 83% of Shiites and 97% of Sunni Arabs oppose the presence of coalition forces in Iraq; 75% of Kurds support them. By more than 3 to 1, Iraqis say the presence of U.S. forces is making the security situation worse."


They want the US out, but only 35% want the troops to leave immediately. The time frame for most of the others is six months to a year. There are hardly any Iraqis who want US troops in their country past August, 2008. I.e., the Iraqis would have voted for the Democrats' plan, which the Republicans shot down in the Senate.

In other results, 40% of Shiites want a theocracy governed by Islamic law and 58% of Sunnis want rule by strongman. Even among Kurds, 34% reject democracy. There may not be a majority for democracy any more.

Nearly half of Shiites and Kurds expect either a soft or a hard partition on ethnic and religious lines.

The USA Today et al. poll results are available here in pdf format.

A poll by the British Opinion Research Business organization gave strikingly different results on some issues.

One difference is that the USA Today et al. poll explicitly includes over-samples from al-Anbar Province, Kirkuk, Sadr City and Basra. Someone expert in polls should explain the divergence and why different methods were chosen and were thought appropriate.

Reuters reports that on Tuesday:

KIRKUK - Two car bombs and four roadside devices killed at least 12 people and wounded 39 in the northern city of Kirkuk, 250 km (150 miles) north of Baghdad, police Brigadier Sarhat Qader said.

BAGHDAD - A bomb in a plastic bag inside a Shi'ite mosque killed four people and wounded 25 others in central Baghdad, police said.

SAMARRA - Gunmen attacked a police checkpoint, killing a policeman and wounding three others in Samarra, 100 km (60 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.'


In addition, the mayor of the southern Shiite city of Wasit was kidnapped and killed.

The Iraqi government alleges that it found explosives residue in the automobile of Dhafir al-Ani, a Sunni member of parliament from the Iraqi Accord Front. He denies links to guerrilla bomb makers and alleges that the Shiite government of Iraq is attempting to frame him.

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3 Comments:

At 12:56 PM, Blogger Dan said...

Regarding the oversampling in the USA Today et al. poll, oversampling is a common survey research method used to allow more precise estimates of the opinions of subgroups. The results for the oversampled groups are then weighted down to their known proportion of the population, so that the overall results are still representative of the country (or whatever) being polled. Therefore, this methodological difference cannot explain the different results between the USA Today et al. poll and the Opinion Research Business one, and they must be due to something else.

To illustrate, let's say (I don't know the actual numbers) that 50 respondents are required to make al-Anbar's share of the sample proportionate to its share of Iraq's population. USA Today et al. might have taken 200 instead, oversampling by a factor of four. The purpose is to be able to give reasonably precise estimates of opinions in al-Anbar itself. However, when calculating the national results, the al-Anbar respondents are only counted as .25 (1/4) people, while respondents from areas not oversampled are counted as 1 person, so the oversampling does not skew the results.

 
At 1:47 PM, Blogger Frank J. Menetrez said...

Regarding the 75 percent of Kurds who want US troops to stay, it is worth repeating something you mentioned a few days ago: There are virtually no US troops stationed in Kurdish areas, and the Kurds' own Peshmerga forces have security there largely under control.

If the Kurds are the only people in Iraq who want our troops to stay, then maybe we should redeploy all our forces to Kurdish areas. And then we'll see how long that 75 percent number holds up. My guess is that Kurds won't like being occupied any more than anyone else does.

 
At 4:27 PM, Blogger Alamaine said...

No one is willing to address the accelerating growth in the world's population
Juliette Jowit
Sunday March 18, 2007
The Observer

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,2036598,00.html

 

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