Breaking News: US Arrests Ammar al-Hakim
US troops arrested Ammar al-Hakim, the son of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, on his return from Iran. There are conflicting reports on whether he has been released.
Abdul Aziz al-Hakim is the leader of the United Iraqi Alliance, the major bloc in parliament, and is enormously powerful and influential in Iraq. He also heads the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and its Badr Corps paramilitary. He visited Bush in the White House on Dec. 4. If the arrest of his son was deliberate, it could be a significant break between the US and its Shiite allies in Iraq. If it was an accident, it was inexcusable stupidity.
It is also possible that the MEK terrorist organization, which Saddam had given a base in Iraq from which it could blow things up in Iran, is funneling disinformation to the US military. The MEK operatives are still in Iraq and their spies monitor the border, and I have a sense that they are trying to drive a wedge between the US and SCIRI. SCIRI has repeatedly called for their expulsion from the country.
posted by Juan Cole @ 2/23/2007 06:48:00 AM
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The MEK was also the focus of Seymour Hersh's reporting last year, when he discussed the groups being used by the US to run ops in Iran (mainly Shia and Kurds)... The MEK also have a strong relationship with the Israeli intelligence agencies, so the disinformation has an opportunity to bounce back and forth onto US sources from those two large but coordinated agencies...
As far as the arrest of al-Hakim is concerned, it will surely cause strain on the US relations with SCIRI... He is lucky that he was not mistaken for an Iranian agent and shot dead, because El Presidente Arbusto in all his wisdom put that option on the table this year...
I have long believed that the SCIRI's relations with the Bush War were narrowly defined to protect the interests of their party, which has historic, religious, economic, political and military ties to Iran... If Bush is serious about a war with Iran, then it makes sense to start cracking down on SCIRI at this time, rather than wait for the Shiite to hit the fan.
Of course, as often, he is wrong on his strategy, and even sensible tactics based on bad strategy end up being ineffective.
http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/meast/02/23/iraq.main/index.html
Apparently it was a mistake, the US issued a formal apology.
Our anti-Hamas sanctions are causing dire poverty.
In September the UN's World Health Organization said that, “the funding crisis at the (Palestinian) Ministry of Health has worsened since economic restrictions were imposed in March this year and now threatens the delivery of essential health services.” [1]
The UN's World Food Program is saying it is "preparing to increase (its Palestine) caseload by 25% in response to the increased needs caused (partly) by the cut of funding to the Palestinian National Authority." [2]
[1]http://www.who.int/mediacentre/
news/releases/2006/pr46/en/index.html
[2]http://www.wfp.org/country_brief/
indexcountry.asp?region=6§ion
=9&sub_section=6&country=275
More at my blog:
http://crawfordcandiru.blogspot.com/
2007/02/our-anti-hamas-sanctions-are-causing.html
Yikes. Short of arresting Maliki or al-Hakim himself, it can hardly get more hair-raising than this.
A perfect illustration, however, of just how deep into the corner US policy has now been painted, in terms of being desperately pro-SCIRI and ever more anti-Iranian.
Glen, I think there's a simpler explanation: most of our people over there have their heads up their asses about the realities on the ground in Iraq. They don't know who's who or what's what 90% of the time. Not knowing Arabic can be a real handicap under those circumstances, and it's not true that if you speak English to them loud enough they'll understand.
I'm not saying we couldn't simply blunder into a war with Iran. With these dipsticks in charge anything's possible. But a plot like the one you've sketched out requires not only animal cunning but expertise, which is one thing our leaders definitely havn't got.
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