Hizb and Mahdi: Do they or Don't they?
The NYT was told by somebody in Washington that Hizbullah has trained between 1,000 and 2,000 Mahdi Army militiamen. I don't know if I believe it, and I am not sure it is significant if true. There are thousands of Mahdi Army militiamen, and some have much more direct war experience, fighting the Marines in 2004, than does Hizbullah. Their popularity has anyway more to do with their charitable work, as WaPo pointed out Monday, than with their military prowess, such as it is.
The logistics are suspicious here. To get from southern Iraq to Lebanon you have to go through Iraqi Sunni Arab territory, which would get most Shiites killed. And, why take the militiamen for training all the way to Lebanon when Iran is right next door and easy to get to via Kermanshah or Basra?
Nor can the effect of the training be seen on the ground. Hizbullah's signature tactic is setting shaped charges, which is rare for the Mahdi Army but is often engaged in by the Sunni Arab guerrillas, who are not to say the least being helped by Iran or Hizbullah. And, it is being alleged that Mahdi Army is being trained to kidnap and torture. That needs training?
There is a real possibility that this report is disinformation "leaked" by the Cheney/Wurmser axis in order to forestall a move to negotiation with Iran and Syria over Iraq, which the Baker-Hamilton Commission will likely recommend.
posted by Juan Cole @ 11/28/2006 07:49:00 PM
|
Facebook
3 Comments:
Speaking of logistics--the question of how Mahdi militias would get to Lebanon for training since they would have to travel through Anbar--I've been wondering for some time the same thing about the armament of Hezbollah, which the newspapers always say is from Iran through Syria, i.e., overland, without mentioning that it would also have to travel through Iraq. Does it, or could this also be disinformation?
By pulling out of Iraq, the US will see just how easily the Tikriti gang will come back. Whoever thinks that THEY have gone far must realise that tribal pride is at stake.
Yes Dawa and co are essentially outsiders and so in Sunnis' view will not be legitimate, nor will they accept a 'Federal' Iraq because any fool can see that the Shiites would not be generous.
There is no longer a 'good' solution.
Its long past time to go home for America, they have simply nothing to offer; how can they, but they want an 'honorable exit'; bunkem. Lets just hope that the civil war does not draw in Turkey and/or the Saudis. I imagine that Turkey would be very much more imperial than the US, if they are drawn in.
There is no 'good' solution. So much is the pity, it seems to me that the whole excersise was pointless.
The US did war games in 1999 that said they needed 600,000 troops to invade.
Rummy claimed he could do it with 150,000. 1/4 the power equaled many times greater the chaos as the body of Iraq was broken in a still entirely lawless nation. Any fool can see that hte writ of the Greezone government has not recognition. Bush is only playing to the voters in the US, when he doubts Malaki, he gave an adress to Congress. What a joke. Bush devaled Congress that day.
Post a Comment
<< Home