Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Thursday, June 29, 2006

Bombings in Baghdad, Baquba, Mahaweel
Guerrilla Groups offer Truce if US will Withdraw


Reuters details Iraq's ongoing civil war violence:

Guerrillas bombed a market in the Shiite quarter of Kadhimiyah, Baghdad, killing one person and wounding 8.

Guerrillas detonated a car bomb near a throng of workers who had gathered to look for work at Baquba, killing 3 and wounding 12.

Also in Baquba, guerrillas set off a bomb at a Shiite mosque, which produced no casualties. But then when policemen came running in tesponse to the first bomb, guerrillas set off a second, seriously injuring the two policemen.

A US military raid that netted a radical Islamist resulted in the death of an innocent civilian, the US military admitted.

In Mahaweel south of the capital, guerrillas detonated a roadside bomb near a police patrol, killing 1 and wounding 3.

In Falluja, guerrillas killed two policemen.

Two US GIs were announced dead, one north of Baghdad and one in al-Anbar province.

Guerrillas in the south near Samawah targeted the Australian troops with a roadside bomb, but missed.

Several Sunni Arab guerrilla groups have offered a ceasefire to the United States if the US will pledge to withdraw all foreign troops within two years.

One problem with this offer is that the goal of the guerrilla groups in their roadside bombings and other violence is . . . to get US and other foreign troops out of the country. In other words, they are seeking to get simply by asking what they have not achieved in 3 years of concerted warfare.

Another problem is that there is no guarantee that when the US presence is completely gone the guerrillas will not try to storm the Green Zone and take over.

The two largest and most important Baathist guerrilla groups (Jaysh Muhammad and Jaysh Islam al-`Iraqi), along with the Salafi Jihadis of the Mujahidin Shura Council, all declined to join in the backchannel negotiations.

Finally, the Bush administration just has no intention of getting out within two years and will blow these groups off.

Relief agencies are overwhelmed and cannot meet the needs of Iraq's 150,000 recently displaced persons.

Billmon is scathing on the hypocrisy of the Bush administration and the Republicans in congress in branding anyone who talks of troop draw-downs in Iraq as devotees of "cut and run," while Gen. Casey is clearly trying desperately to figure out plausible ways of drawing down US troops in Iraq.

The USG Open Source Center paraphrases reports from the Iraqi press for June 27:



. . . Tariq al-Sha'b runs on page 2 a 300-word report on the statement issued by a number of Iraqi parties and civil society organizations condemning Al-Mahawil police for raiding the Communist Party's headquarters. . .

Al-Zaman carries on the front page a 1,100-word report entitled "1,500 Iraqi Dinars for 1 Liter of Gasoline in Black Market; Huge Jump in Commodity Prices and Transportation Costs; Kilometers-Long Lines and 7 Hours Waiting in Front of Gas Stations." . . .

Al-Zaman carries on page 3 a 200-word report entitled "Maysan Advisory Council Declares General Strike on Wednesday and Thursday in Solidarity with Karbala Advisory Council Chairman." [The Karbala council chairman, from the Fadila Party, has been arrested for possible complicity in terrorism.] . . .

Al-Sabah carries on page 2 a 320-word report citing a source at the Kurdistan parliament saying that a senior Kurdish delegation will visit Baghdad to urge Iraqi officials to quickly solve the issue of Kirkuk . . .

Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah carries on the front page a 350-word report citing Al-Sadr Trend member Hazim al-A'raji calling for a national reconciliation inside the parliament. He held parliament members responsible for the blood shed in Iraq. . .

Dar al-Salam carries on the front page a 180-word report citing Iraqi Al-Tawafuq Front member Salim al-Juburi saying that the front supports Nuri al-Maliki's initiative for national reconciliation, but the problem lies in the details. . .

Al-Mashriq carries on the front page a 400-word report citing Adnan al-Dulaymi calling on the Shiite religious and political scholars to open dialogue with their Sunni counterparts. . .

Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah carries on the front page a 180-word report that a terrorist group has warned Shiite families in Al-Muqdadiyah to leave the city. . .

Al-Zaman carries on page 3 a 750-word report entitled "Baghdad Health Directorate: Campaign To Control Violations in Residential Areas; Baghdad's families Resort To Breeding Sheep To Overcome Economic Crisis."

Al-Adalah carries on page 4 a 1,500-word report on the illegal slaughtering of cattle and storing of meat.

Al-Sabah al-Jadid runs on page 4 an 80-word report on the role of unemployment and not enforcing the law in discouraging drug addiction. . .

Al-Sabah carries on page 14 a 120-word report citing director of Al-Sadr Bureau in Al-Diwaniyah saying that the bureau has started a campaign to clean up the governorate.

Al-Sabah carries on page 15 a 1,400-word report citing Karbala's inhabitants complaining about the fuel crisis in the governorate.

Al-Sabah carries on page 15 a 70-word report citing an official source in Al-Najaf Governorate saying that the governorate has signed a contract with a Bahraini company to construct a sports city at a cost of $42 million. . .

Tariq al-Sha'b carries on the back page a 600-word report entitled "Communist Party Supporters Association in Baghdad Holds Third Conference." . . .

Al-Da'wah runs on page 7 a 400-word article by Karim al-Najjar criticizing Iraqi newspapers for claiming that 5 million Iraqis issued a petition demanding the government to support Mujahidin-e-Khalq Organization. . .

Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah carries on page 2 a 600-word article by the political editor strongly criticizing Saudi Arabia for supporting terrorism and exporting terrorists to Iraq to kill Shiites. . .

Al-Sabah al-Jadid runs on page 5 a 1,500-word report on the recent demonstration by Babil's Al-Qasim district's inhabitants, stating that the major reasons behind the demonstration were corruption and unemployment. . .

2 Comments:

At 10:36 AM, Blogger grytpype said...

Juan, I'm surprised to see you denigrate the offer of peace in exchange for a timetable.

It's hard to see how else this war could possibly end.

The coaltion cannot defeat the insurgency militarily or impose terms. Until we either do a deal or lose militarily, the war will not end.

Remember, we are just visiting Iraq, the insurgents live there, and they will be there when we leave no matter how long we stay.

 
At 2:04 PM, Blogger Da' Buffalo Amongst Wolves said...

Professor Cole,

You said:
"Another problem is that there is no guarantee that when the US presence is completely gone the guerrillas will not try to storm the Green Zone and take over."

If the US presence is completely gone (and I really, REALLY doubt "...completely" will happen in our lifetimes), there will be no "Green Zone", nor a reason for such a fortified zone to exist. Unless of course the 'leaders' of Iraq feel more secure in a fortified zone, than with the people of Iraq.

Right now, the government of Iraq has about as much "historic legitimacy' as the 'Peace Chiefs' that the U.S. government chose to recognise amongst the First Americans.

This is similar to the Coalition Government hand-picking the candidates that would be allowed to seek office.

If history is an arbiter, the government of Iraq WILL need a "green zone" if one would consider that most of the so called peace chiefs were assassinated or executed by other members of their group.

 

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