Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Monday, December 26, 2005

Shiites, Sunnis, Demonstrate Against one Another over Elections;
Five Percent of Ballots Fraudulent: IECI


According to Sabrina Tavernise of the New York Times, Sunni Arab cabinet ministers requested that the United Iraqi Alliance donate 10 of their seats to Sunni Arab candidates. Apparently they hoped such a gesture would mollify Sunni Arab activists who believe that the Shiites unfairly stole the election. The UIA declined, nor would such a gesture probably have been legal.

Sunnis rallied again on Sunday against the election outcome, crying fraud, at Baqubah in the northeast and Fallujah west of the capital. In Baqubah after the demonstrations, guerrilla groups engaged local Iraqi police, killing 4 of them and wounding 15.

In Fallujah, hundreds of protesters came out. Some rallied against the election results. Others demanded release of detainees held by the US and Iraqi governments, or wanted to be paid compensation for the property damage the city suffered during the November, 2004, assault on the city by US forces, which destroyed 2/3s of the buildings and left most inhabitants refugees. Still others wanted the government to repeal the tripling of fuel costs.

In Sadr City, the vast Shiite slum of East Baghdad, about 1,000 Shiites held a demonstration in support of the electoral victory apparently gained by the United Iraqi Alliance. They supported the government of Ibrahim Jaafari, denounced former prime minister Iyad Allawi (a secular Shiite and oldtime CIA asset), and demanded the execution of Saddam Hussein.

Nancy Youssef of Knight Ridder reports increasingly vehement anti-Iranian sentiment among Iraq's Sunni Arabs. They blame Iran for supporting the fundamentalist Shiite parties, and for a string of assassinations of Sunni figures.

Two US soldiers died in Iraq on Sunday, and some 16 Iraqis were killed in guerrilla violence in Baghdad, Kirkuk, Mosul, Jabala and Baqubah. Guerrillas destroyed an Abrams tank with a roadside bomb, which would have taken a big explosive device, though no US casualties in the event appear yet to have been released. It is not good news that the guerrillas have evolved to the point where they can destroy an Abrams tank.

Iraq's minister of justice, Abdel Hussein Shandal, narrowly avoided being assassinated on Saturday when guerrillas sprayed his car with machine gun fire, killing two.

Al-Hayat [Ar.]: The London pan-Arab daily says that American pressure has increased on the Shiite funamentalist parties to form a government of national unity so as to exit from the current crisis, and that the US is using President Jalal Talabani (a prominent Kurd) as their go-between. US ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad is playing a key role in attempting to bring the parties together so that a government can be formed, according to another London daily, al-Sharq al-Awsat

Al-Sharq al-Awsat quotes an official of the Iraqi Accord Front, Zafir al-Ani, as saying that electoral fraud in the parliamentary elections of Dec. 15 was "the closest thing to a mercy killing of the entire political process in Iraq." He added that his Sunni fundamentalist coalition was keeping all options open, including that of completely boycotting that political process. He said that his list is getting enormous popular pressure from Sunni Arab voters who were promised that voting on Dec. 15 would restore ethnic and sectarian balance to parliament.

Al-Hayat: The United Iraqi Alliance, the victorious Shiite coalition, has rejected charges that its victory was engineered through voting fraud, and its prominent leaders have intimated that they might take measures against "instigators of violence" (i.e. Sunni Arabs protesting the election results). The massive Sunni demonstrations last Friday and the belligerant Shiite response have raised profound fears that the Iraq crisis could escalate to a new level of violence and instability.

The Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq admitted on Sunday that voting fraud occurred in approximately 5 percent of the ballots cast, but said that this level of fraud would not affect the over-all outcome. Still, the IECI announcement will certainly fuel Sunni Arab anger and conviction that the election was stolen.

Shiite Iraqi politician Hussein Shahristani maintained that United Nations and European Union observers viewed the December 15 elections as among the more above-board and clean in the third world, and said that there is no doubt that its results reflected the will of the people.

4 Comments:

At 9:52 AM, Blogger fester said...

Juan --- it is not that unusual that M1's are destroyed by insurgent attacks --- not common, but not a one-off event. From the numbers that I have been seeing roughly 8-10% of M-1s that are deployed for a year in combat are declared total constructive losses at the end of a deployment, which works out to be about 70-90 tanks per year destroyed or damaged past the point of long term repair.

Fester

 
At 4:59 PM, Blogger InplainviewMonitor said...

Is explosion close?

Shiite banning already elected Sunni PMs is pretty chaotic. From the other side, Sunni radicals are likely to take Hussein's posturing as a serious message. Finally, add PA meltdown to the picture.

No, all this does not look good at all :-((

Nancy A.Youssef and Huda Ahmed. Iraqi court disqualifies prominent Sunni candidates

 
At 6:55 PM, Blogger Steve said...

Not that it will matter to the pundits, but Bush's election appears to be making the situation in Iraq much worse and has done nothing to slow down the insurgency. This was another example of snowing the American people into believing that the latest thing is going to turn it around in Iraq (that "thing" being the various elections, capturing Saddam, killing Saddam's sons, capturing the latest Zarqawi "number three," a photo op with Bush or Rumsfeld eating turkey in the Green Zone cafeteria, another falsely upbeat speech, the latest Guernica-like bombing raid to "root out" insurgents, some half-assed election in another Middle Eastern country showing how "democracy is spreading", Saddam's trial, etc.)

 
At 11:44 PM, Blogger sherm said...

I think the biggest problem Bush faces is trying to convince the American public that there is something worth fighting for (and paying for) in Iraq.

The Iraq picture is one of a politicaly autonomous state riven by ethnic, religious and cutural differences so acute that deadly violence is as easy and comfortable as name calling.

Militarily its a picture of the US placeholding a civil war against the Sunnis until the Shiite/Kurd military and militias can fully accept the enterprise.

If the American public had any empathy for the plight of Saddamized Iraqi people, its gone now. On Dec 15 nearly all the Iraqis voted for their home team - not for a nation.

 

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