India almost went to war with Pakistan twice in the last year, according to India Today. Last winter, Indian forces prepared to attack the Pakistani line of control in Kashmir, but were dissuaded by the US and by the relocation of Pakistani terrorist camps from Kashmir to Pakistan itself. The war plans in the summer were dampened by fears of the approaching monsoons (heavy rains are no weather in which to fight) and by uncertainty about the exact nuclear capabilities of Pakistan (Delhi feared a nuclear reprisal and could not rule one out). This Indian war mobilization was, as Clausewitz would have foreseen, also a form of politics. It was a way of pressuring the US to pressure Pakistan to stop cross-border infiltration of Kashmir by terrorists.

The world dodged a bullet twice here, since two South Asian nuclear powers going to war with one another would be unpleasant for us all. But we are clearly not yet out of the woods.